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enilria
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Posts: 10076
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/IAH

Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:45 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way.

It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1.

Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over

year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not

appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

ATR delivery delayed?
3M BKG-IAH JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.8>0.0
3M BKG-MSY AUG 0.3>0.0
3M BKG-ORD JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0.1

4M MIA-EZE NOV 1.1>1.4

*4O IAH-BJX MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0
*4O SAT-BJX MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0

7H ADQ-ANC JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
7H ANC-CDV MAY 1.6>0.5
7H ANC-ENA MAY 12>11 JUN 12>11
7H ANC-HOM JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
7H ANI-KSM AUG 0.1>0.0
7H FAI-SCC MAY 0.7>0.4 JUN 0.7>0.4 JUL 0.7>0.4 AUG 0.7>0.5

9X JHW-PIT APR 4>0

A7 CSL-CEN APR 0.6>0
A7 CSL-CUL APR 0.8>0
A7 CSL-LMM APR 1.1>0
A7 CSL-MZT APR 1.0>0
A7 CSL-PVR APR 0.4>0

AA BGR-LGA JUL 0.5>1.3
AA CLE-LGA JUL 3>4
AA CLT-AVP NOV 4>3
AA CLT-CUR JUL 0.2>0.3
AA CLT-DEN NOV 6>5
AA CLT-FAY JUL 6>7
AA CLT-FLO JUL 3>4
AA CLT-FPO JUL 0.6>0.1 AUG 0.5>0.1
AA CLT-GPT OCT 3>1.8 NOV 3>1.7
AA CLT-GSO JUL 8>9
AA CLT-HSV JUL 5>4 NOV 5>4
AA CLT-LEX JUL 6>5 NOV 6>5
AA CLT-OAJ JUL 7>6
AA CLT-PGV JUL 4>5
AA CLT-PWM JUL 3>1.9 NOV 3>2
AA CLT-TRI JUL 7>5 AUG 7>6
AA DFW-BOI SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0 NOV 2>1.0
AA DFW-CHA JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3
AA DFW-CHS SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
AA DFW-GEG AUG 2>1.5 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0 NOV 2>1.0
AA DFW-GSO SEP 3>1.8 OCT 3>1.9 NOV 3>1.9
AA DFW-HSV JUL 4>5
AA DFW-JLN SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
AA DFW-LEX SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
AA DFW-MFE JUL 6>7
AA DFW-MTJ JUL 1.2>2
AA DFW-ORF SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
AA DFW-PNS SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
AA DFW-PSP SEP 2>1.0
AA DFW-RDU SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
AA DFW-SAV SEP 3>1.8 OCT 3>1.9 NOV 3>1.9
AA DFW-SDF JUL 5>6
AA DFW-TPA JUL 7>6
AA DFW-UIO JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>0.9
AA JFK-BWI JUL 1.2>2
AA JFK-DFW AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3
AA LAX-FAT JUL 4>3
AA LAX-SFO JUL 12>10
AA LAX-SJC JUL 6>5
AA LAX-SLC JUL 4>3
AA LGA-RIC JUL 4>5
*AA MIA-ZSA OCT 0.1>0 NOV 0.1>0
AA ORD-BDL SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
AA ORD-BNA JUL 9>10
AA ORD-BUF SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
AA ORD-CMI OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
AA ORD-DEN SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
AA ORD-EWR JUL 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6
AA ORD-GRB OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AA ORD-GRR JUL 7>8
AA ORD-HPN OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
AA ORD-LSE OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
AA ORD-MHK JUL 1.9>3
*AA ORD-MQT SEP 3>1.3 OCT 3>1.1 NOV 3>1.1
AA ORD-MSN JUL 6>7 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
AA ORD-RSW NOV 3>4
AA ORD-SDF JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
AA ORD-SLC SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
AA ORD-TYS OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
AA PHL-SEA JUL 4>3

AM ORD-GDL NOV 1.0>1.4
AM ORD-MEX NOV 2>3

AS ANC-FAI NOV 7>8
AS LAX-MZT SEP 0.5>0.3
AS LAX-PVR OCT 1.1>1.0
AS LAX-SJD SEP 2>1.6 OCT 2>1.6
AS LAX-SJO SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.5
AS SAN-SJD SEP 2>1.7 OCT 2>1.7
AS SFO-PVR SEP 1.5>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.2
AS SFO-SJD AUG 1.6>1.5 SEP 1.7>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.1
AS SFO-SNA SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AS SJC-SJD SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.8
AS SJC-SNA SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4

AV BOS-BOG SEP 0.6>1.0 OCT 0.5>0.9
AV JFK-MDE JUN 0.7>1.0 JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0 SEP 0.7>1.0 OCT 0.7>0.9
AV JFK-SAP JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0
AV LAX-SAL MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3

B6 JFK-LAX JUL 11>10

This is not a CM code share. Eqp is 773.
**CA IAH-PTY APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.2

CM SFO-PTY OCT 3>2

DI FLL-LGW APR 0.4>0.3
DI OAK-LGW APR 0.9>0.7
DI SEA-LGW APR 0.6>0.4

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8
DL DTW-LEX AUG 5>4
DL JFK-BGR OCT 1.8>0.8
DL JFK-PWM JUL 3>1.8
DL SEA-AMS OCT 1.8>1.5
DL SEA-HKG OCT 1.0>0.8 NOV 0.9>0.7
DL SLC-LHR OCT 0.6>0.5
DL SLC-YYC NOV 1.3>1.0

DY JFK-MAD NOV 0>0.4
DY LAX-FCO NOV 0.4>0.6
DY LAX-MAD NOV 0>0.4
DY LAX-MXP NOV 0>0.6

*J5 GST-JNU MAY 1.6>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 1.5>0 AUG 1.4>0

KL MSP-AMS NOV 0.4>0.6

LF BNA-TUP APR 0>5

*LW MIA-LRM APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.5>0 NOV 0.6>0

LY LAX-TLV NOV 0.7>0.5

OS MIA-VIE SEP 0.6>0.5

P1 CLT-LUK JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7
P1 LUK-MDW JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7
P1 LUK-MMU JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7
P1 LUK-PDK JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7

SY MCO-MSP SEP 0.1>1.0

*TR HNL-KIX APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.6>0 AUG 0.5>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.6>0

UA DEN-GUC SEP 2>1.1
UA DEN-HDN SEP 2>1.1
UA DEN-MSO SEP 5>4
UA DEN-PHL OCT 2.0>3
UA DEN-SEA OCT 5>6
UA DEN-SGF OCT 3>4
UA DEN-SGU SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA DEN-SLC OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6
UA DEN-TUS OCT 5>4
UA EWR-AUS SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA EWR-BNA SEP 4>6 OCT 4>6 NOV 4>5
UA EWR-CLE SEP 5>6
UA EWR-DTW OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6
UA EWR-FLL SEP 6>5
UA EWR-GSP SEP 1.8>3 OCT 1.9>3 NOV 1.9>3
UA EWR-LAS AUG 6>7 SEP 6>8 OCT 6>8
UA EWR-MCO SEP 9>8
UA EWR-MIA SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA EWR-MSN SEP 2>3
UA EWR-MSP SEP 6>5
UA EWR-OMA SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3
UA EWR-PBI AUG 6>5 SEP 6>4
UA EWR-PHX AUG 3>2.0 SEP 4>1.8 OCT 4>2 NOV 4>3
UA EWR-PIT SEP 7>8
**UA EWR-PQI JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7
UA EWR-RSW SEP 3>2
UA EWR-SBN SEP 1.0>1.7 OCT 1.0>1.9
UA EWR-SEA SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-TPA SEP 6>5
UA IAD-ALB SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAD-CHS JUN 4>5 JUL 3>4 SEP 4>3
UA IAD-FAY SEP 3>1.0 OCT 3>1.0 NOV 3>1.0
UA IAD-FLL SEP 2>1.0
UA IAD-HSV SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0 NOV 2>1.0
UA IAD-MCI SEP 3>2
UA IAD-MDT SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAD-MSP SEP 3>2
UA IAD-PHL SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAD-RIC SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAD-ROC SEP 3>4
UA IAD-SAV SEP 4>3
UA IAD-SCE SEP 3>2
UA IAD-TYS SEP 4>2 OCT 4>2 NOV 4>2
UA IAH-AMA SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA IAH-BRO SEP 4>5
UA IAH-CMH SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
UA IAH-COS SEP 3>4
UA IAH-CVG JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
UA IAH-ECP SEP 2>3
UA IAH-GRR SEP 1.0>1.8
UA IAH-IAD SEP 5>4
UA IAH-IND SEP 5>4
UA IAH-LAS SEP 8>6
UA IAH-LBB SEP 3>4
UA IAH-LFT SEP 6>5
UA IAH-LIT SEP 5>6
UA IAH-MFE SEP 5>6
UA IAH-MIA SEP 4>3
UA IAH-ORF SEP 1.0>2
UA IAH-PDX SEP 3>2
UA IAH-PHX SEP 5>4
UA IAH-RDU SEP 4>5
UA IAH-RSW SEP 2>1.3
UA IAH-SDF SEP 3>4
UA IAH-SEA SEP 6>5
UA IAH-SJC AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 2>1.0
UA IAH-SLC SEP 3>5
UA IAH-TPA SEP 5>4
UA IAH-TUS SEP 4>3
UA LAX-DFW SEP 1.7>3 OCT 1.7>3 NOV 1.7>3
UA LAX-EWR AUG 13>12 SEP 13>11
UA LAX-IAD SEP 9>8
UA LAX-IAH AUG 12>11 SEP 12>10
UA LAX-LAS SEP 5>4
UA LAX-MRY SEP 5>4
UA LAX-PHX SEP 4>3
UA ORD-ABE OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2
*UA ORD-ANC OCT 1.0>0.1 NOV 1.0>0
UA ORD-ATL SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 8>7
UA ORD-ATW SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
UA ORD-BNA SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 8>7
UA ORD-BTV NOV 4>3
UA ORD-CAK SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
UA ORD-CID MAY 5>4 AUG 6>4 SEP 6>1.7 OCT 6>3 NOV 6>3
UA ORD-CMH SEP 8>7
UA ORD-DFW SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 8>7
UA ORD-DTW SEP 7>8 OCT 7>8
UA ORD-FSD AUG 4>3 SEP 4>0.8 OCT 4>0.9 NOV 3>0.1
UA ORD-GRR SEP 6>8
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-HSV AUG 2>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
UA ORD-IAH SEP 10>9
UA ORD-LAX SEP 12>10
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-LIT AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0
UA ORD-MCO SEP 6>5
UA ORD-MDT AUG 4>3 SEP 4>2
UA ORD-MEX APR 1.9>1.7 MAY 1.9>1.7
Deletion is not one-way, but looks similar in timing to HSV/LIT
**UA ORD-MHT SEP 3>2 OCT 3>0.2 NOV 3>0
UA ORD-MKE SEP 9>10
UA ORD-MSN AUG 8>9 SEP 7>9
UA ORD-PDX SEP 4>5
UA ORD-PNS AUG 1.4>3 SEP 0>2
UA ORD-RAP SEP 2>3
UA ORD-SAV AUG 5>4 SEP 4>2 OCT 4>2 NOV 4>2
UA ORD-SGF SEP 4>1.7 OCT 4>1.7 NOV 4>1.7
UA ORD-SMF SEP 3>2
UA ORD-TUL SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA ORD-TVC SEP 4>5
UA ORD-YVR SEP 4>3
UA SFO-ACV OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA SFO-BOI SEP 4>5
UA SFO-BUR SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
UA SFO-DEN OCT 13>12 NOV 13>12
UA SFO-EWR AUG 15>14 SEP 15>13
UA SFO-FLL AUG 1.4>1.0 SEP 2>1.0
UA SFO-IAH SEP 9>10
UA SFO-LAS AUG 10>11
UA SFO-MCI SEP 3>1.8
UA SFO-MCO OCT 2>3
UA SFO-MFR SEP 4>5
UA SFO-MSO SEP 0>1.0
UA SFO-ORD SEP 16>14
UA SFO-PHL SEP 3>2
UA SFO-PHX AUG 5>6 SEP 4>6 OCT 4>5
UA SFO-PIT SEP 1.0>2
UA SFO-PSP SEP 5>4
UA SFO-RDM AUG 5>6 SEP 3>5
UA SFO-RDU SEP 1.0>2
UA SFO-SAN AUG 11>12 SEP 9>11 OCT 9>10
UA SFO-SBP SEP 3>4
UA SFO-SEA AUG 11>13 OCT 10>9
UA SFO-YVR OCT 4>5

VB IAH-MTY NOV 0>0.4
*VB LAS-MEX OCT 0.9>1.0 NOV 0>1.0
VB LAX-GDL APR 1.0>0.9 OCT 0.9>1.0 NOV 0>1.0

VVC MIA-MDE JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 0.8>0.6

X4 AGN-TKE APR 0.8>0 MAY 1.3>0
X4 GST-JNU MAY 4>5 JUN 3>5 JUL 3>5 AUG 4>5
X4 KLW-SIT APR 0.8>0 MAY 1.9>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 1.9>0.9 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 0.5>0.2
 
User avatar
Irehdna
Posts: 388
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:40 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:51 pm

enilria wrote:

LY LAX-TLV NOV 0.7>0.5


Does this suggest an equipment change, perhaps to the B789?
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1829
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:56 pm

I imagine next week you will see a re-file for 3M starting Aug. 30th to BKG so AUG. frequencies may not show up at all since it will only cover two days of that month. And then resume new frequencies for SEP, OCT..I think until mid-December according to3M website.
 
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knope2001
Posts: 3016
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:11 pm

Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
**UA EWR-PQI JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7


A few days ago United (with 50-seatd RJ) won the EAS bid for Presque Isle with PQI-EWR and it will be oprated by ExpressJet ER4. Skywest (to operate as UA*) won the bid for Plattburgh-Dulles.

These EAS routes were operated by Pen Air to Boston with Saab 340. In addition to these two EAS routes Pen Air has flown a special EAS contract to run Saab 340 into Bar Harbor during the peak summer season. Cape flies 9-seat prop all year to BHB but the seasonal SF340 addition meets the big summer swell in traffic. Nobody who bid just for the four-ish-month BHB contract was selected and it has been put out for emergency rebid. I wonder if Pen will fly the BOS-BHB for the remainder of the summer after they loe the rest of their Boston operation or if they will close up shop and leave New England at the end of June when they lose PQI and PBG.
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:12 pm

enilria wrote:
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-HSV AUG 2>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-LIT AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0
Deletion is not one-way, but looks similar in timing to HSV/LIT
**UA ORD-MHT SEP 3>2 OCT 3>0.2 NOV 3>0


Misfiles maybe due to change of express carrier? Some of these were expanded last summer and would seem odd for dropping.
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:14 pm

enilria wrote:
AV BOS-BOG SEP 0.6>1.0 OCT 0.5>0.9


Strange increase for Early Fall - why not increase the summer months? Are the leaf peepers coming up to New England from BOG and points South or is it just plane availability.

I'm guessing moving forward it will probably be daily from Late March through October in 2019 and shift to 4 weekly in IATA Winter season
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10076
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:21 pm

Irehdna wrote:
enilria wrote:

LY LAX-TLV NOV 0.7>0.5


Does this suggest an equipment change, perhaps to the B789?

Still same type in OAG.
knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

:)
knope2001 wrote:
enilria wrote:
**UA EWR-PQI JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7


A few days ago United (with 50-seatd RJ) won the EAS bid for Presque Isle with PQI-EWR and it will be oprated by ExpressJet ER4. Skywest (to operate as UA*) won the bid for Plattburgh-Dulles.

These EAS routes were operated by Pen Air to Boston with Saab 340. In addition to these two EAS routes Pen Air has flown a special EAS contract to run Saab 340 into Bar Harbor during the peak summer season. Cape flies 9-seat prop all year to BHB but the seasonal SF340 addition meets the big summer swell in traffic. Nobody who bid just for the four-ish-month BHB contract was selected and it has been put out for emergency rebid. I wonder if Pen will fly the BOS-BHB for the remainder of the summer after they loe the rest of their Boston operation or if they will close up shop and leave New England at the end of June when they lose PQI and PBG.

UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:22 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
enilria wrote:
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-HSV AUG 2>1.3 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-LIT AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0
Deletion is not one-way, but looks similar in timing to HSV/LIT
**UA ORD-MHT SEP 3>2 OCT 3>0.2 NOV 3>0


Misfiles maybe due to change of express carrier? Some of these were expanded last summer and would seem odd for dropping.

Yeah, I think low probability any are really dropped. MHT is most likely because it was dropped both ways, but I just report the changes!

Could be Express carrier change, or maybe they are switching to or from at-risk routes?
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:44 pm

enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Good one!

Seriously, I do wonder about the details of all this. Nearly all the RJ expansion into EAS markets is from Skywest, and all the new Skywest flying is under the UA* banner, not DL* (for which they have quite a few legacy EAS RJ markets like Aberdeen and Escanaba). My guess (just a guess) was that all this new EAS flying is fully Skywest's decision, and that something about the Delta contract made it more favorable to operate them as UA*. Maybe the Delta agreement in some way prevents Skywest from adding these EAS market to DL* or that the terms are better for Skywest if they operate as UA*. But I figured this was all Skywest's doing. And all the EAS bids were from Skywest themselves, promising UA* flying. But then came the PQI bid which was on United paper in the name of United to be operated by United Express 50-seat RJ's. No operating carrier named. So that makes me think United is more than a disinterested player simply being agreeable to Skywest's EAS plan. For what it's worth, however, PQI is being operated by ExpressJet which is a Skywest subsidiary I don't think any EAS bids operating as UA* have been submitted by other United Express carriers

I keep meaning to crunch some numbrers to see what portion of EAS traffic is served by Skywest, what portion of total EAS dollars goes to OO, etc, but I keep holding off because the roster just keeps growing and I'm looking for a plateau. It will be interesting to see how small they go -- they are putting RJ's into some pretty small markets like Cape Girardeau, Liberal and Moab but have taken a pass on bidding pretty similar markets like Dodge City and Burlington IA. Not every EAS market can board enough passengers to make the subsidy for a 50-seat RJ within a reasonable range, but in those markets where they have come in the per-passenger subsidy is often lower (sometimes by a solid margin) than competing bids from 9-seat prop carriers .
 
georgiabill
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:47 pm

If UA is indeed dropping ORD-MHT-ORD I hope AA will give it a try.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:03 pm

knope2001 wrote:
enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Good one!

Seriously, I do wonder about the details of all this. Nearly all the RJ expansion into EAS markets is from Skywest, and all the new Skywest flying is under the UA* banner, not DL* (for which they have quite a few legacy EAS RJ markets like Aberdeen and Escanaba). My guess (just a guess) was that all this new EAS flying is fully Skywest's decision, and that something about the Delta contract made it more favorable to operate them as UA*. Maybe the Delta agreement in some way prevents Skywest from adding these EAS market to DL* or that the terms are better for Skywest if they operate as UA*. But I figured this was all Skywest's doing. And all the EAS bids were from Skywest themselves, promising UA* flying. But then came the PQI bid which was on United paper in the name of United to be operated by United Express 50-seat RJ's. No operating carrier named. So that makes me think United is more than a disinterested player simply being agreeable to Skywest's EAS plan. For what it's worth, however, PQI is being operated by ExpressJet which is a Skywest subsidiary I don't think any EAS bids operating as UA* have been submitted by other United Express carriers

I keep meaning to crunch some numbrers to see what portion of EAS traffic is served by Skywest, what portion of total EAS dollars goes to OO, etc, but I keep holding off because the roster just keeps growing and I'm looking for a plateau. It will be interesting to see how small they go -- they are putting RJ's into some pretty small markets like Cape Girardeau, Liberal and Moab but have taken a pass on bidding pretty similar markets like Dodge City and Burlington IA. Not every EAS market can board enough passengers to make the subsidy for a 50-seat RJ within a reasonable range, but in those markets where they have come in the per-passenger subsidy is often lower (sometimes by a solid margin) than competing bids from 9-seat prop carriers .


Assuming SkyWest is making the decisions on these, I'm sure the flying is getting UA codeshares because SkyWest feels UA's hubs fit the markets they're bidding for better.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:21 pm

enilria wrote:
FAQ

AS SFO-SNA SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AS SJC-SNA SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4


It looks like some intra-CA routes are doing fairly well...yes?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:37 pm

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8


This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?
 
HVNandrew
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:39 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
**UA EWR-PQI JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7


A few days ago United (with 50-seatd RJ) won the EAS bid for Presque Isle with PQI-EWR and it will be oprated by ExpressJet ER4. Skywest (to operate as UA*) won the bid for Plattburgh-Dulles.

Interesting. UA to IAD (and the connections there) makes more sense than a non-network carrier into BOS. BOS would make sense if it were operated by a carrier like DL with many onward connecting opportunities in BOS, but Penair to BOS seemed to serve a limited purpose (did they even have an interlining agreement there?).

Somewhat off topic, but I don't know why PBG still needs EAS...I'd think the area could sustain some level of service to network hubs, especially given its proximity to the Montreal area.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:46 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
wedgetail737 wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ

AS SFO-SNA SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AS SJC-SNA SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4


It looks like some intra-CA routes are doing fairly well...yes?


Wonder where the slots are coming from.

Also interesting that VX couldn’t make SFO-SNA work but AS can
 
777Mech
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:55 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8


This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?


This is due to the 777s getting the Delta One Suite mods, as I believe DL wants to get one extra frame done by year end.

As always, thanks Enilria for putting all of this together every week!
 
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NickolayAv
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:09 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AV BOS-BOG SEP 0.6>1.0 OCT 0.5>0.9


Strange increase for Early Fall - why not increase the summer months? Are the leaf peepers coming up to New England from BOG and points South or is it just plane availability.

I'm guessing moving forward it will probably be daily from Late March through October in 2019 and shift to 4 weekly in IATA Winter season

It's really nice to see how well AV has been doing on the route from BOS. I really wonder if this is a good idea for the airline though, the direct BOS-GRU flight is opening this year, I can see that taking away some of the airline's traffic.
"If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline"-Richard Branson
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:12 pm

FSDan wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Good one!

Seriously, I do wonder about the details of all this. Nearly all the RJ expansion into EAS markets is from Skywest, and all the new Skywest flying is under the UA* banner, not DL* (for which they have quite a few legacy EAS RJ markets like Aberdeen and Escanaba). My guess (just a guess) was that all this new EAS flying is fully Skywest's decision, and that something about the Delta contract made it more favorable to operate them as UA*. Maybe the Delta agreement in some way prevents Skywest from adding these EAS market to DL* or that the terms are better for Skywest if they operate as UA*. But I figured this was all Skywest's doing. And all the EAS bids were from Skywest themselves, promising UA* flying. But then came the PQI bid which was on United paper in the name of United to be operated by United Express 50-seat RJ's. No operating carrier named. So that makes me think United is more than a disinterested player simply being agreeable to Skywest's EAS plan. For what it's worth, however, PQI is being operated by ExpressJet which is a Skywest subsidiary I don't think any EAS bids operating as UA* have been submitted by other United Express carriers

I keep meaning to crunch some numbrers to see what portion of EAS traffic is served by Skywest, what portion of total EAS dollars goes to OO, etc, but I keep holding off because the roster just keeps growing and I'm looking for a plateau. It will be interesting to see how small they go -- they are putting RJ's into some pretty small markets like Cape Girardeau, Liberal and Moab but have taken a pass on bidding pretty similar markets like Dodge City and Burlington IA. Not every EAS market can board enough passengers to make the subsidy for a 50-seat RJ within a reasonable range, but in those markets where they have come in the per-passenger subsidy is often lower (sometimes by a solid margin) than competing bids from 9-seat prop carriers .


Assuming SkyWest is making the decisions on these, I'm sure the flying is getting UA codeshares because SkyWest feels UA's hubs fit the markets they're bidding for better.


I think that’s right. Certainly in these markets the geography to any DL hub is not favorable. But even in places like PAH where the distance to a DL hub is similar, the UA hub will have more O&D in almost all cases. 10 more O&D passengers per day is a huge difference in these markets.
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adamh8297
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:14 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
enilria wrote:
AV BOS-BOG SEP 0.6>1.0 OCT 0.5>0.9


Strange increase for Early Fall - why not increase the summer months? Are the leaf peepers coming up to New England from BOG and points South or is it just plane availability.

I'm guessing moving forward it will probably be daily from Late March through October in 2019 and shift to 4 weekly in IATA Winter season

It's really nice to see how well AV has been doing on the route from BOS. I really wonder if this is a good idea for the airline though, the direct BOS-GRU flight is opening this year, I can see that taking away some of the airline's traffic.


In my opinion CM is the tougher competition for AV but sometimes you need to increase frequency to compete when the competition is doing the same.

Also - the connections to Brazil (and deep South America in general) on BOS-BOG are not the greatest. Boston-Colombia was easily stimulated by this route - especially for people in Bogota and larger cities who want to visit Boston. The VFR is primarily from MDE.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
jb1087xna
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:23 pm

Thanks as always!

enilria wrote:
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-LIT AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0


Has to be a misfile.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:34 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
wedgetail737 wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ

AS SFO-SNA SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AS SJC-SNA SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4


It looks like some intra-CA routes are doing fairly well...yes?


Wonder where the slots are coming from.

Also interesting that VX couldn’t make SFO-SNA work but AS can


I think it's two things...

1. Brand recognition - AS has been serving SNA since the 1980's. When AS bought Jet America (SI), they opened up a "California Dreaming" campaign sporting Roy Orbison sunglasses on the eskimo, to promote intra-CA flights, which included SNA. While the campaign didn't last very long, AS kept SNA as a destination. Passengers think VX at LAX and SFO...not the outlying airports so much.

2. I don't think VX gave SNA all that much of a chance. They were in there for a very short period of the time and didn't allow that market to grow...not to mention competition from other airlines. It's kind of like their brief LAX-SJC service.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:43 pm

Maybe 3M won't have additional ATR's until fall for that service to Branson
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32andBelow
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:43 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
**UA EWR-PQI JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7


A few days ago United (with 50-seatd RJ) won the EAS bid for Presque Isle with PQI-EWR and it will be oprated by ExpressJet ER4. Skywest (to operate as UA*) won the bid for Plattburgh-Dulles.

These EAS routes were operated by Pen Air to Boston with Saab 340. In addition to these two EAS routes Pen Air has flown a special EAS contract to run Saab 340 into Bar Harbor during the peak summer season. Cape flies 9-seat prop all year to BHB but the seasonal SF340 addition meets the big summer swell in traffic. Nobody who bid just for the four-ish-month BHB contract was selected and it has been put out for emergency rebid. I wonder if Pen will fly the BOS-BHB for the remainder of the summer after they loe the rest of their Boston operation or if they will close up shop and leave New England at the end of June when they lose PQI and PBG.

Pen could keep some presence in BOS. They have a decently sized ground operation turning all AS/VX/WS flights.
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:52 pm

enilria wrote:
UA IAD-PHL SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3

Over the past year IAD-PHL went from 4x ERJ to 4x CR7/E75. This summer it goes to 3x CR7 1x 319. With that capacity increase, not surprised to see a frequency go.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:24 pm

enilria wrote:
*TR HNL-KIX APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.6>0 AUG 0.5>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.6>0



Giving up so soon? Or taking the route seasonal?
 
C010T3
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 5:53 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
**UA EWR-PQI JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7


A few days ago United (with 50-seatd RJ) won the EAS bid for Presque Isle with PQI-EWR and it will be oprated by ExpressJet ER4. Skywest (to operate as UA*) won the bid for Plattburgh-Dulles.

These EAS routes were operated by Pen Air to Boston with Saab 340. In addition to these two EAS routes Pen Air has flown a special EAS contract to run Saab 340 into Bar Harbor during the peak summer season. Cape flies 9-seat prop all year to BHB but the seasonal SF340 addition meets the big summer swell in traffic. Nobody who bid just for the four-ish-month BHB contract was selected and it has been put out for emergency rebid. I wonder if Pen will fly the BOS-BHB for the remainder of the summer after they loe the rest of their Boston operation or if they will close up shop and leave New England at the end of June when they lose PQI and PBG.


I surely hope UA goes for it. EWR-BHB would surely make Bar Harbor more accessible for markets that are not directly linked to BOS.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:04 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
wedgetail737 wrote:

It looks like some intra-CA routes are doing fairly well...yes?


Wonder where the slots are coming from.

Also interesting that VX couldn’t make SFO-SNA work but AS can


I think it's two things...

1. Brand recognition - AS has been serving SNA since the 1980's. When AS bought Jet America (SI), they opened up a "California Dreaming" campaign sporting Roy Orbison sunglasses on the eskimo, to promote intra-CA flights, which included SNA. While the campaign didn't last very long, AS kept SNA as a destination. Passengers think VX at LAX and SFO...not the outlying airports so much.

2. I don't think VX gave SNA all that much of a chance. They were in there for a very short period of the time and didn't allow that market to grow...not to mention competition from other airlines. It's kind of like their brief LAX-SJC service.


SNA always has the best yield out of LA basin markets in the intra-california. Why would AS not use every slot it has? It has to bet more profitable for them than BUR/LAX-SJC/SFO.
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:31 pm

A lot of international cuts for Delta. Also interesting that after moving BGR from DTW to JFK it is being reduced.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:34 pm

777Mech wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8


This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?


This is due to the 777s getting the Delta One Suite mods, as I believe DL wants to get one extra frame done by year end.

As always, thanks Enilria for putting all of this together every week!


If there is good revenue to be had Delta wouldn't be reducing a flight that is doing well just to do mods . I'd have to say it's under performing.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:37 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8


This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?


Well JumboJet keeps on talking about flying UA to China, so that's probably it. The Widget somehow still didn't manage to get his business.
 
gmcc
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:37 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
wedgetail737 wrote:

It looks like some intra-CA routes are doing fairly well...yes?


Wonder where the slots are coming from.

Also interesting that VX couldn’t make SFO-SNA work but AS can


I think it's two things...

1. Brand recognition - AS has been serving SNA since the 1980's. When AS bought Jet America (SI), they opened up a "California Dreaming" campaign sporting Roy Orbison sunglasses on the eskimo, to promote intra-CA flights, which included SNA. While the campaign didn't last very long, AS kept SNA as a destination. Passengers think VX at LAX and SFO...not the outlying airports so much.

2. I don't think VX gave SNA all that much of a chance. They were in there for a very short period of the time and didn't allow that market to grow...not to mention competition from other airlines. It's kind of like their brief LAX-SJC service.


One slot is probably coming from the RNO-SNA flight that was cut. Not sure where the other is coming from as they are running the STS flights from Santa Rosa and back. Maybe they are hoping for a supplemental award in June from the county. I think a lot of the SFO to SNA success comes from running the right sized plane on the route. The E175 works better for the run than any plane VX had. As far as SJC their are a fair number people in the OC that want something other than the WN model to fly on. It will be interesting to see who gets the additional SFO flight as both Skywest and Horizon fly the route for AS.
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:38 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8


This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?



Yes that it's under performing.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MSPNWA
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:52 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?


Quite common for DL to cut long-haul routes to less than daily in the offseason. Kind of like they intentionally oversupply and then cut later. SEA-HKG is a chronic case of this, and it shows up again this week. Not much to read into it except that demand may not be looking great. It appears to have nothing to do with 777 mods.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:55 pm

gmcc wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]

Wonder where the slots are coming from.

Also interesting that VX couldn’t make SFO-SNA work but AS can


I think it's two things...

1. Brand recognition - AS has been serving SNA since the 1980's. When AS bought Jet America (SI), they opened up a "California Dreaming" campaign sporting Roy Orbison sunglasses on the eskimo, to promote intra-CA flights, which included SNA. While the campaign didn't last very long, AS kept SNA as a destination. Passengers think VX at LAX and SFO...not the outlying airports so much.

2. I don't think VX gave SNA all that much of a chance. They were in there for a very short period of the time and didn't allow that market to grow...not to mention competition from other airlines. It's kind of like their brief LAX-SJC service.


One slot is probably coming from the RNO-SNA flight that was cut. Not sure where the other is coming from as they are running the STS flights from Santa Rosa and back. Maybe they are hoping for a supplemental award in June from the county. I think a lot of the SFO to SNA success comes from running the right sized plane on the route. The E175 works better for the run than any plane VX had. As far as SJC their are a fair number people in the OC that want something other than the WN model to fly on. It will be interesting to see who gets the additional SFO flight as both Skywest and Horizon fly the route for AS.


I agree with your comment. In addition, passengers really like the E-175 with the larger, overhead bins, more of an airliner feel (than the CRJ's) and the 2X2 seating in economy.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:59 pm

gmcc wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]

Wonder where the slots are coming from.

Also interesting that VX couldn’t make SFO-SNA work but AS can


I think it's two things...

1. Brand recognition - AS has been serving SNA since the 1980's. When AS bought Jet America (SI), they opened up a "California Dreaming" campaign sporting Roy Orbison sunglasses on the eskimo, to promote intra-CA flights, which included SNA. While the campaign didn't last very long, AS kept SNA as a destination. Passengers think VX at LAX and SFO...not the outlying airports so much.

2. I don't think VX gave SNA all that much of a chance. They were in there for a very short period of the time and didn't allow that market to grow...not to mention competition from other airlines. It's kind of like their brief LAX-SJC service.


One slot is probably coming from the RNO-SNA flight that was cut. Not sure where the other is coming from as they are running the STS flights from Santa Rosa and back. Maybe they are hoping for a supplemental award in June from the county. I think a lot of the SFO to SNA success comes from running the right sized plane on the route. The E175 works better for the run than any plane VX had. As far as SJC their are a fair number people in the OC that want something other than the WN model to fly on. It will be interesting to see who gets the additional SFO flight as both Skywest and Horizon fly the route for AS.


I’m sure AS+VX makes the route more viable than either alone. I’d also imagine that the VX product is more compelling on longer stage lengths. Equipment right-sizing may help though not sure about yields. And of course their lower recognition in the non-LAX airports.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
777Mech
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:59 pm

klm617 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?


This is due to the 777s getting the Delta One Suite mods, as I believe DL wants to get one extra frame done by year end.

As always, thanks Enilria for putting all of this together every week!


If there is good revenue to be had Delta wouldn't be reducing a flight that is doing well just to do mods . I'd have to say it's under performing.


Wait what? They're taking a frame out right after the summer schedule ends. If it was under performing, why wouldn't they go ahead a reduce it in July? They can make even more money putting a competitive product on the plane earlier than planned.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:06 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
Also, if CX were to enter the SEA-HKG market, how would the dynamics change?


1. AS would feed the hell out of them.
2. DL would probably cut back slightly.
3. CX would still lose money.
4. The consumers and spotters would win.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:08 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?


Quite common for DL to cut long-haul routes to less than daily in the offseason. Kind of like they intentionally oversupply and then cut later. SEA-HKG is a chronic case of this, and it shows up again this week. Not much to read into it except that demand may not be looking great. It appears to have nothing to do with 777 mods.


I do find it interesting that DL is changing the equipment from the A330-200 to the 777-200ER, but maybe that's for the peak season. But I had also heard that DL was having some performance problems with the A330 on the route.

Also, if CX were to enter the SEA-HKG market, how would the dynamics change?
 
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Jamake1
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:22 pm

enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Honestly though, if the government is going to continue subsidizing EAS, this is how it SHOULD be awarded: To a reliable Express carrier who can feed small-town USA with the greatest number of online flights/destinations. The smaller fly-by-night carriers have proved unreliable resulting in deminished traffic on EAS routings.
Come fly the sun.
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:22 pm

777Mech wrote:
klm617 wrote:
777Mech wrote:

This is due to the 777s getting the Delta One Suite mods, as I believe DL wants to get one extra frame done by year end.

As always, thanks Enilria for putting all of this together every week!


If there is good revenue to be had Delta wouldn't be reducing a flight that is doing well just to do mods . I'd have to say it's under performing.


Wait what? They're taking a frame out right after the summer schedule ends. If it was under performing, why wouldn't they go ahead a reduce it in July? They can make even more money putting a competitive product on the plane earlier than planned.



OK but that isn't the only 777 in the Delta fleet they chose ATL-PVG to cut back on because they have less to lose again because it is under performing.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MSPNWA
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:27 pm

777Mech wrote:
Wait what? They're taking a frame out right after the summer schedule ends. If it was under performing, why wouldn't they go ahead a reduce it in July? They can make even more money putting a competitive product on the plane earlier than planned.


Cutting one long-haul flight a day or two a week over a short period doesn't free up an airframe for modifications unless there's more cuts that altogether create slack. I don't see that in the new schedule. In fact instead I see the 77L sitting over a day in PVG in one example of the new schedule.

And let's say it was about mods. That implies poor fleet planning to have to trim flights to create slack. I don't think that alternative is attractive to the company image either. For why DL consistently does this advance off-season trimming with their Pacific flights, you'd have to ask them. One reason I see is to offer flights to snag some demand, and then if it doesn't look promising they can cut it and move the passengers to other flights to retain some of that revenue.
 
joeljack
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:30 pm

enilria wrote:
UA EWR-OMA SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3


Continental used to fly OMA-EWR 3x daily for many many years, even 4x daily a couple months on and off. United reduced it to 1x or 2x daily and it become a terrible schedule for business travelers with flight leaving OMA at noon and 6pm. Most business travelers in OMA that I know switched to DL who has a 7am OMA-LGA flight and now they have an evening flight too. This is great news that UA is going back at this 3x daily but if they want to win back OMA side business customers, they need to make sure to keep it 3x daily year-round, not switch it around like crazy every month like UA is known to do. DL doesn't do this to their schedule and it appeals to business travelers. I stayed with UA loyalty and I'm hopefully it stays 3x daily permanently!
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:38 pm

klm617 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
klm617 wrote:

If there is good revenue to be had Delta wouldn't be reducing a flight that is doing well just to do mods . I'd have to say it's under performing.


Wait what? They're taking a frame out right after the summer schedule ends. If it was under performing, why wouldn't they go ahead a reduce it in July? They can make even more money putting a competitive product on the plane earlier than planned.



OK but that isn't the only 777 in the Delta fleet they chose ATL-PVG to cut back on because they have less to lose again because it is under performing.

We get it, it's not a DTW flight so it can't be successful.

Something has to get cut, schedule wise it may make the most sense to target that flight compared to another. It doesn't mean it isn't successful.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Jamake1 wrote:
enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Honestly though, if the government is going to continue subsidizing EAS, this is how it SHOULD be awarded: To a reliable Express carrier who can feed small-town USA with the greatest number of online flights/destinations. The smaller fly-by-night carriers have proved unreliable resulting in deminished traffic on EAS routings.


Some of the smaller carriers have done better than others. Great Lakes and Seaport almost wrecked EAS, because they were so unreliable that people stopped flying them.....and fewer enplanements resulted in higher cost per passenger, making EAS at cities served by Great Lakes and Seaport appear uneconomical.

Air Choice One and Boutique Air are far more reliable than Great Lakes and Seaport were, though, and boardings at their cities have held up much better than at Great Lakes' and Seaport's cities.
 
RJNUT
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:42 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
Jamake1 wrote:
enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Honestly though, if the government is going to continue subsidizing EAS, this is how it SHOULD be awarded: To a reliable Express carrier who can feed small-town USA with the greatest number of online flights/destinations. The smaller fly-by-night carriers have proved unreliable resulting in deminished traffic on EAS routings.


Some of the smaller carriers have done better than others. Great Lakes and Seaport almost wrecked EAS, because they were so unreliable that people stopped flying them.....and fewer enplanements resulted in higher cost per passenger, making EAS at cities served by Great Lakes and Seaport appear uneconomical.

Air Choice One and Boutique Air are far more reliable than Great Lakes and Seaport were, though, and boardings at their cities have held up much better than at Great Lakes' and Seaport's cities.

BINGO!.. cause and effect from Great Lakes' abysmal record( a few others can take some blame as well but GL takes the prize). SkyWest brings stability back to the program and from there a better chance of reasonable reassessments. Operating so many under the UA banner brings economy of scale. Possibly AA and DL will back out completely over time. Then everyone will scream UA monopoly on the program but that will be a '1st world " problem to address later on. I think overall EAS has seen some daylight.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:57 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Maybe the Delta agreement in some way prevents Skywest from adding these EAS market to DL* or that the terms are better for Skywest if they operate as UA*.

My guess is that the agreements are nearly identical, but DL just is a lot more likely to say no, plus no joke DL is under a much tighter growth constraint and doesn't even at risk flying count as capacity growth?
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

DL ATL-PVG OCT 1.0>0.8


This route starts in July. Is this indicative of anything?

It means they are disappointed that Fall is weaker than they hoped. Does it mean it sucks? Unknown.
777Mech wrote:
As always, thanks Enilria for putting all of this together every week!

:)
777Mech wrote:
This is due to the 777s getting the Delta One Suite mods, as I believe DL wants to get one extra frame done by year end.

Sure, but I'm sure they picked the weakest 777 route.
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks as always!

enilria wrote:
Looks like misfile. Deletion is one-way.
**UA ORD-LIT AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0 NOV 3>0


Has to be a misfile.

Thanks

I'd say 99% likely a misfile.
sunking737 wrote:
Maybe 3M won't have additional ATR's until fall for that service to Branson

That's my guess. Delivery delay. They should have bagged it. Too late to start now.
Jamake1 wrote:
enilria wrote:
UA is going to operate all the EAS the way they are going. Somebody tell Wall Street that 5% capacity increase they hate is all govt subsidized! LOL


Honestly though, if the government is going to continue subsidizing EAS, this is how it SHOULD be awarded: To a reliable Express carrier who can feed small-town USA with the greatest number of online flights/destinations. The smaller fly-by-night carriers have proved unreliable resulting in deminished traffic on EAS routings.

Yes, BUT I don't like the taxpayer bill going through the roof vs the turboprops.
 
CHI2DFW
Posts: 223
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:00 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
777Mech wrote:

Wait what? They're taking a frame out right after the summer schedule ends. If it was under performing, why wouldn't they go ahead a reduce it in July? They can make even more money putting a competitive product on the plane earlier than planned.



OK but that isn't the only 777 in the Delta fleet they chose ATL-PVG to cut back on because they have less to lose again because it is under performing.

We get it, it's not a DTW flight so it can't be successful.

Something has to get cut, schedule wise it may make the most sense to target that flight compared to another. It doesn't mean it isn't successful.


You beat hundreds of others to post this. October is slow, but since it doesn’t touch DTW, it must be a dog.
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:00 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
777Mech wrote:

Wait what? They're taking a frame out right after the summer schedule ends. If it was under performing, why wouldn't they go ahead a reduce it in July? They can make even more money putting a competitive product on the plane earlier than planned.



OK but that isn't the only 777 in the Delta fleet they chose ATL-PVG to cut back on because they have less to lose again because it is under performing.

We get it, it's not a DTW flight so it can't be successful.

Something has to get cut, schedule wise it may make the most sense to target that flight compared to another. It doesn't mean it isn't successful.



No there are people who defend ATL no matter what. The third time is the charm for ATL-PVG right let's face it PVG from ATL is not really sustainable and the market proved it already twice before. ATL is really the only market that is given 2nd and 3rd chances. If a flight was tried from one of it's other hubs and the yield wasn't good enough to keep it around it would never be attempted again.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
ridgid727
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:02 pm

What is with UA going from 3 on IAH-SLC to 5. Have they been overselling in SLC?
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2550
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Re: OAG Changes 3/25/2018: AirChina Adds IAH-PTY w/773;UA Adds PQI-EWR, MisFiles or Drops 3 ORD Markets;4O Adds BJX-SAT/

Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:32 pm

klm617 wrote:
A lot of international cuts for Delta. Also interesting that after moving BGR from DTW to JFK it is being reduced.


Interesting - maybe. Surprising - no. The BGR/JFK flights are operated by Endeavor. Bangor passengers have other options, no surprise that they would reject Endeavor's unreliable service.

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