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Zoedyn
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China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:21 am

This thread is focused on the air services between China and the US, the worlds top two biggest economies and two biggest aviation markets as well, obviously with a number of significant issues and moves out there worthy of attention and discussion.

Here are some issues of interest and concern
• How likely are the two countries to start a new round of negotiations on air traffic rights, given the leverage allowed under current bilateral air agreements is almost maxing out, particularly on the Chinese side?
• Any chances for the US and China to ink an open skies agreement in the foreseeable future as the US did with many other countries/regions like Japan, South Korea, the EU, or as China did with Australia?
• How would the probability of a Sino-US trade war impact the aviation sector between the two and beyond?
• Would slot constraints continue to be a contentious issue for American carriers operating at top Chinese airports in Beijing and Shanghai, considering Beijing's new airport and PVG's mega satellite terminal both are scheduled to operate shortly next year?
• How should US airlines react to the subsidy-focused practices by their Chinese counterparts, which are increasingly gaining an upper hand on the Trans-Pacific market?
• Any possible strong partnerships between Chinese and US airlines to evolve to grow the market?

So what are your observations and comments on these issues and plenty more on the China-US aviation market? Free feel to share here
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:45 am

According to a CAPA report, Chinese airline seat share of the US-China market (excluding Hawaii and Pacific Islands) reached a decade low in 2011 when Chinese airlines got only 37% of US-China seats and 36% of US-China flights. 2015 marked a turning point, as Chinese airlines outperformed their US counterparts. In 2017, Chinese airlines accounted for 61% of seats and 57% of flights
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:57 am

Los Angeles has so far, among all cities in the Americas, the most non-stop links to Chinese destinations with a total of 13 (TPE not included)
Image
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:14 am

On the other side of the Pacific, PEK is the Chinese airport with the most non-stop services to the US, including 14 destinations or 13 cities (NYC = JFK + EWR)
Image
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:56 am

China Airlines Ontario, California to Taiwan started service.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:59 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
Los Angeles has so far, among all cities in the Americas, the most non-stop links to Chinese destinations with a total of 13 (TPE not included)
Image


YVR is up there as well...probably not too far behind LAX.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:05 pm

With the new Beijing airport opening next year, what are the stipulations by the Chinese gov’t for having 1 Chinese carrier per route to any US city? As an example, if Hainan moves to the new airport, will Air China be able to serve ORD nonstop since Hainan would serve ORD non stop from the new airport?
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:57 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
Los Angeles has so far, among all cities in the Americas, the most non-stop links to Chinese destinations with a total of 13 (TPE not included)
Image


Up to 15 once Tianjin Airlines begins flying to Xi'an and Zhengzhou.
 
usssla
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:08 pm

Kbud wrote:
With the new Beijing airport opening next year, what are the stipulations by the Chinese gov’t for having 1 Chinese carrier per route to any US city? As an example, if Hainan moves to the new airport, will Air China be able to serve ORD nonstop since Hainan would serve ORD non stop from the new airport?


So far, no
And also, Chinese carriers have used all the traffic rights for tier 1 and tier 2 region for China, except Hong Kong.
 
ncflyer
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:36 pm

Good thread but to me the #1 question is how do these flights sustain themselves when prices are cheaper than dirt. Midwest USA to China < $600 through spring break season. Mind blowing in comparison to Europe Hawaii or S America

Yeah I know someone will say they make it up in the front of the plane but I don’t buy it. Front of plane is expensive no higher than anywhere else from the US.

Who is driving this pricing madness??
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:12 am

tcaeyx wrote:

Up to 15 once Tianjin Airlines begins flying to Xi'an and Zhengzhou.


UA used to fly XIY-LAX for two years in 2016,2017, and ended the service because of poor market performance, in a similar way BA pulled out of CTU

Maybe China's domestic carriers like GS and HU are better positioned to operate intercontinental routes from second-tier cities
 
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legacyins
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:37 am

Zoedyn wrote:
tcaeyx wrote:

Up to 15 once Tianjin Airlines begins flying to Xi'an and Zhengzhou.


UA used to fly XIY-LAX for two years in 2016,2017, and ended the service because of poor market performance


It was not LAX, it was XIY-SFO
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:12 am

usssla wrote:
Kbud wrote:
With the new Beijing airport opening next year, what are the stipulations by the Chinese gov’t for having 1 Chinese carrier per route to any US city? As an example, if Hainan moves to the new airport, will Air China be able to serve ORD nonstop since Hainan would serve ORD non stop from the new airport?


So far, no
And also, Chinese carriers have used all the traffic rights for tier 1 and tier 2 region for China, except Hong Kong.


The "one Chinese carrier per route" stipulation by the Chinese aviation authorities would look increasingly stupid now that Beijing is soon to have two mega-big airports.

Earlier reports say regulators have set policies to count PEK and Beijing's new airport as one destination, instead of being two separate ones, which means the old controversial one carrier per route stipulation would continue to apply

But (a big but) then again it is China, where anything can be possible if big power steps in.
As Beijing new airport is touted as the national project during the reign of President Xi who personally attached great importance to its construction (plus the recent constitutional amendment for possible lifetime presidency), it is reasonable to guess making the new airport a grand success of becoming an international hub is what the Chinese governments, both local and central, would most love to do. In such heavily political context, the one carrier per route stipulation would be doubtless a major man-made block they have to get rid of if they see strong motivations to please, even though this means some entrenched interests of certain parties would be undermined at a cost

For HU, being no member of any alliance, it seems to continue to stay at PEK, while airlines of Skyteam Alliance would all relocate to the new airport
Last edited by Zoedyn on Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:15 am

legacyins wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
tcaeyx wrote:

Up to 15 once Tianjin Airlines begins flying to Xi'an and Zhengzhou.


UA used to fly XIY-LAX for two years in 2016,2017, and ended the service because of poor market performance


It was not LAX, it was XIY-SFO


Oh, yes, it was SFO, not LAX. Maybe they could fare better had it been LAX?
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:24 am

ncflyer wrote:
Good thread but to me the #1 question is how do these flights sustain themselves when prices are cheaper than dirt. Midwest USA to China < $600 through spring break season. Mind blowing in comparison to Europe Hawaii or S America

Yeah I know someone will say they make it up in the front of the plane but I don’t buy it. Front of plane is expensive no higher than anywhere else from the US.

Who is driving this pricing madness??


Why not enjoy the cheap airfares as long as the subsidies continue? Budget-shy fliers would always welcome and buy such flights:)
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:47 pm

I’m enjoying it, taking full advantage. I just don’t understand it. I understand dirt cheap fares from US to Iceland and connecting cities due to WOW. I don’t understand the same to China. Especially for 14 hour flights.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:44 pm

Maintenance issue causes United flight bound for Dulles to return to Beijing

A United Airlines Boeing 787 Dreamliner bound for IAD flew more than an hour and a half before abruptly turning around and returning to Beijing Tuesday.
United declined to specify the maintenance issue experienced by the plane. There were 77 passengers and 14 crew members on board.

A bit surprised by the pax load: 77 pax on B787 from PEK

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dr- ... dc25161cfb
 
Aither
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:20 pm

ncflyer wrote:
Good thread but to me the #1 question is how do these flights sustain themselves when prices are cheaper than dirt. Midwest USA to China < $600 through spring break season. Mind blowing in comparison to Europe Hawaii or S America

Yeah I know someone will say they make it up in the front of the plane but I don’t buy it. Front of plane is expensive no higher than anywhere else from the US.

Who is driving this pricing madness??


- Reason 1 : around the holiday periods, about 2 months, the international fares can be 3 to 4 times higher than normal. This allows to offer cheaper fares for the remaining 10 months.
- Reason 2 : subsidies of course from local governments but they don't apply to everybody and at anytime
- Reason 3 : they just don't care that much losing money on long haul routes. Chinese airlines make tons on profits on the huge, price controlled, local market. They fly long haul because of prestige and because the government wants them to fly more international. Their only ambition on long haul is 1- to fly a route before a competitor does 2- to try to break even on operating costs only.
- Reason 4 : cargo revenues

Combine these 4 reasons and you realize that in 10 years maybe the Chinese airlines will have >90% market share on China-US. This is why US airlines are doing partnerships IMO. It's just impossible to compete against that.
Never trust the obvious
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:38 pm

Aither wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
Good thread but to me the #1 question is how do these flights sustain themselves when prices are cheaper than dirt. Midwest USA to China < $600 through spring break season. Mind blowing in comparison to Europe Hawaii or S America

Yeah I know someone will say they make it up in the front of the plane but I don’t buy it. Front of plane is expensive no higher than anywhere else from the US.

Who is driving this pricing madness??


- Reason 1 : around the holiday periods, about 2 months, the international fares can be 3 to 4 times higher than normal. This allows to offer cheaper fares for the remaining 10 months.
- Reason 2 : subsidies of course from local governments but they don't apply to everybody and at anytime
- Reason 3 : they just don't care that much losing money on long haul routes. Chinese airlines make tons on profits on the huge, price controlled, local market. They fly long haul because of prestige and because the government wants them to fly more international. Their only ambition on long haul is 1- to fly a route before a competitor does 2- to try to break even on operating costs only.
- Reason 4 : cargo revenues

Combine these 4 reasons and you realize that in 10 years maybe the Chinese airlines will have >90% market share on China-US. This is why US airlines are doing partnerships IMO. It's just impossible to compete against that.


I would add #5: Chinese carriers have lower cost base compared to an American one. Hence they can certainly offered lower fare.

And AFAIK it is not like those flights are solely prestige - they can certainly fill the seats. Yields are not necessarily high, though.

At the end of the day, despite how all these a.nutter thinking CN3 are not profitable, their profit just keep going up every year. And yes, that included HU.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:04 pm

For those of you who are interested in the pax traffic numbers and loads of Chinese mainland carriers on their US routes all, you may get an idea by clicking the link below that contains a chart compiled by a Chinese professional based on data from DOT (the chart contains data on Sept 2017, and from January through September 2017, and is posted on a Chinese aviation forum)

http://bbs.feeyo.com/posts/592/topic-0011-5925365.html
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:15 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
For those of you who are interested in the pax traffic numbers and loads of Chinese mainland carriers on their US routes all, you may get an idea by clicking the link below that contains a chart compiled by a Chinese professional based on data from DOT (the chart contains data on Sept 2017, and from January through September 2017, and is posted on a Chinese aviation forum)

http://bbs.feeyo.com/posts/592/topic-0011-5925365.html


Could someone provide a translation of each column header?
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:27 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
For those of you who are interested in the pax traffic numbers and loads of Chinese mainland carriers on their US routes all, you may get an idea by clicking the link below that contains a chart compiled by a Chinese professional based on data from DOT (the chart contains data on Sept 2017, and from January through September 2017, and is posted on a Chinese aviation forum)

http://bbs.feeyo.com/posts/592/topic-0011-5925365.html


Could someone provide a translation of each column header?


Number of Passengers per route per USDOT
Left Half: September 2017 Only. Right Half: Jan-Sep 2017
Within each half, left to right:
China to US/YoY change/Load Factor/US to China/YoY Change/Load Factor/Combined both ways/YoY Change/Load Factor
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:28 pm

I read on another thread that, since UA has ended its 3x-weekly GUM-PVG, there are now five weekly Zone 1 frequencies available on the US side, including the two remaining from the DL/AA LAX-PEK decision last year. Who do we think may apply for them, and for what routes?

DL could apply for LAX-PEK again, or JFK-China as a dark-horse option, although I'm not sure they're ready to try that yet.

I don't see AA having any other major gaps to fill in its China network. Maybe from JFK, but they seem disinterested in growing long-haul ops there at the moment.

I wouldn't be shocked if UA applied for one of several routes, like LAX/DEN-PEK or IAH/IAD-PVG. LAX-PEK, however, would be stepping on CA's toes in a crowded market, and while in theory the other markets seem like they could work, I don't know if they are large enough in reality, or if (in the case of DEN) takeoff conditions would make it unviable. Plus, the fact that UA apparently returned the GUM-PVG frequencies without applying for a replacement indicates maybe they aren't interested in new China flights right now.
Last edited by Sightseer on Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jbs2886
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:29 pm

alex0easy wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
For those of you who are interested in the pax traffic numbers and loads of Chinese mainland carriers on their US routes all, you may get an idea by clicking the link below that contains a chart compiled by a Chinese professional based on data from DOT (the chart contains data on Sept 2017, and from January through September 2017, and is posted on a Chinese aviation forum)

http://bbs.feeyo.com/posts/592/topic-0011-5925365.html


Could someone provide a translation of each column header?


Number of Passengers per route per USDOT
Left Half: September 2017 Only. Right Half: Jan-Sep 2017
Within each half, left to right:
China to US/YoY change/Load Factor/US to China/YoY Change/Load Factor/Combined both ways/YoY Change/Load Factor


Thanks! Interesting that the chart includes codeshares of the mainland carriers. For example, no mainland carrier flies to DTW, but it is included; so, we are getting some DL information.
 
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alex0easy
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:33 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
alex0easy wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Could someone provide a translation of each column header?


Number of Passengers per route per USDOT
Left Half: September 2017 Only. Right Half: Jan-Sep 2017
Within each half, left to right:
China to US/YoY change/Load Factor/US to China/YoY Change/Load Factor/Combined both ways/YoY Change/Load Factor


Thanks! Interesting that the chart includes codeshares of the mainland carriers. For example, no mainland carrier flies to DTW, but it is included; so, we are getting some DL information.


I believe this includes all carriers between US and China, not just Chinese carriers.
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:07 am

alex0easy wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
alex0easy wrote:

Number of Passengers per route per USDOT
Left Half: September 2017 Only. Right Half: Jan-Sep 2017
Within each half, left to right:
China to US/YoY change/Load Factor/US to China/YoY Change/Load Factor/Combined both ways/YoY Change/Load Factor


Thanks! Interesting that the chart includes codeshares of the mainland carriers. For example, no mainland carrier flies to DTW, but it is included; so, we are getting some DL information.


I believe this includes all carriers between US and China, not just Chinese carriers.


Yes, both US and Chinese carriers should be included. Apologies there :sorry:
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:28 am

Some telling ranking lists could be culled per the chart with the link in Post #20

Top 10 routes with highest load btwn mainland China and continental US
(both ways combined for Jan-Sept 2017)

1 CAN-LAX 89.7%
2 PVG-DTW 88.4%
3 CAN-JFK 87.8%
4 PEK-DTW 87.5%
5 PVG-EWR 86.7%
6 CAN-SFO 86.4%
7 PEK-EWR 83.8%
8 PVG-JFK 83.7%
9 PEK-SEA 82.8%
10 PEK-IAH 82.6%
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:34 am

Top 10 routes with most pax btwn mainland China and continental US
(both ways combined for Jan-Sept 2017)

1 PVG-LAX 610,220
2 PEK-LAX 379,981
3 PVG-SFO 367,575
4 PEK-SFO 340,601
5 CAN-LAX 308,669
6 PVG-ORD 296,192
7 PVG-JFK 272,248
8 PEK-ORD 271,355
9 PEK-JFK 252,911
10 CAN-JFK 239,941
 
c933103
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:27 am

Kbud wrote:
With the new Beijing airport opening next year, what are the stipulations by the Chinese gov’t for having 1 Chinese carrier per route to any US city? As an example, if Hainan moves to the new airport, will Air China be able to serve ORD nonstop since Hainan would serve ORD non stop from the new airport?

They have previously said that the two airports is going to be treated as same destination although they have also announced conditions for allowing second carrier onto routes. However actual execution is jot unlikely to deviate from that depends on the positioning of the new airport
Edit: Note: Both Air China and HNA will remain in PEK so things won't change for HNA
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Aither
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:32 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
Some telling ranking lists could be culled per the chart with the link in Post #20

Top 10 routes with highest load btwn mainland China and continental US
(both ways combined for Jan-Sept 2017)

1 CAN-LAX 89.7%
2 PVG-DTW 88.4%
3 CAN-JFK 87.8%
4 PEK-DTW 87.5%
5 PVG-EWR 86.7%
6 CAN-SFO 86.4%
7 PEK-EWR 83.8%
8 PVG-JFK 83.7%
9 PEK-SEA 82.8%
10 PEK-IAH 82.6%


Thanks
Incredible. Some routes here are already with double daily flights per airline. I think an A380 order from China will come. When it's hard to say but at some point it has to come.
Never trust the obvious
 
jbs2886
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:38 pm

Aither wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
Some telling ranking lists could be culled per the chart with the link in Post #20

Top 10 routes with highest load btwn mainland China and continental US
(both ways combined for Jan-Sept 2017)

1 CAN-LAX 89.7%
2 PVG-DTW 88.4%
3 CAN-JFK 87.8%
4 PEK-DTW 87.5%
5 PVG-EWR 86.7%
6 CAN-SFO 86.4%
7 PEK-EWR 83.8%
8 PVG-JFK 83.7%
9 PEK-SEA 82.8%
10 PEK-IAH 82.6%


Thanks
Incredible. Some routes here are already with double daily flights per airline. I think an A380 order from China will come. When it's hard to say but at some point it has to come.


I would disagree. I think it’s far more likely to see 777X than A380.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:25 am

Trump unveils tariff plan on Chinese aircraft imports

"Aircraft, jet engines and helicopters made in China are among 1,300 product categories that will face a 25% tariff if imported into the USA, the Trump Administration proposed on 3 April."

Not clear how US-China air traffic would be impacted as a result of a simmering trade war on the brink

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rt-447284/
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:29 am

Aither wrote:
I think an A380 order from China will come. When it's hard to say but at some point it has to come.

Already has. The only one who ended up taking them was CZ, who has the weakest int'l network.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:01 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
Trump unveils tariff plan on Chinese aircraft imports

"Aircraft, jet engines and helicopters made in China are among 1,300 product categories that will face a 25% tariff if imported into the USA, the Trump Administration proposed on 3 April."

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rt-447284/


Well that was a pretty silly move. How many COMAC 919s or ARJ-21s have been ordered by US airlines? Zero. How many will be? Zero.
Retaliation was to be expected from China for US made aircraft. And it came: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-aircraft.

Wonder how this will affect current orders on Boeing aircraft. Perhaps this 25% tariff will only affect future orders. If not, mass cancellations for 737s will follow. Boeing stock has already dropped nearly 5%. Fortunately for Boeing, widebody aircraft are not affected (yet).

Airbus may only face competition from COMAC for NB orders from China...
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
SeaKing4
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:11 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Zoedyn wrote:
Trump unveils tariff plan on Chinese aircraft imports

"Aircraft, jet engines and helicopters made in China are among 1,300 product categories that will face a 25% tariff if imported into the USA, the Trump Administration proposed on 3 April."

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rt-447284/


Well that was a pretty silly move. How many COMAC 919s or ARJ-21s have been ordered by US airlines? Zero. How many will be? Zero.
Retaliation was to be expected from China for US made aircraft. And it came: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-aircraft.

Wonder how this will affect current orders on Boeing aircraft. Perhaps this 25% tariff will only affect future orders. If not, mass cancellations for 737s will follow. Boeing stock has already dropped nearly 5%. Fortunately for Boeing, widebody aircraft are not affected (yet).

Airbus may only face competition from COMAC for NB orders from China...


How are Boeing wide bodied aircraft not effected ? The Bloomberg article you link to only says single isle aircraft. where as other news articles only mention the word “Aircraft”.

Please note I’m new to editing here & im struggling at the moment.
Last edited by SeaKing4 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SeaKing4
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:18 pm

Sorry I will take the above back. But what has confused me is a Sky News article that just uses the word aircraft and does not use words like single isle or wide body. https://news.sky.com/story/beijing-stri ... t-11316425
 
jbs2886
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:24 pm

SeaKing4 wrote:
Sorry I will take the above back. But what has confused me is a Sky News article that just uses the word aircraft and does not use words like single isle or wide body. https://news.sky.com/story/beijing-stri ... t-11316425


The poster above is discussing the fact that China doesn’t produce widebodies, only narrowbodies. I would agree it impacts both single “aisle” and widebody.
 
SeaKing4
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:27 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
SeaKing4 wrote:
Sorry I will take the above back. But what has confused me is a Sky News article that just uses the word aircraft and does not use words like single isle or wide body. https://news.sky.com/story/beijing-stri ... t-11316425


The poster above is discussing the fact that China doesn’t produce widebodies, only narrowbodies. I would agree it impacts both single “aisle” and widebody.


TY. I was editing my miss quote whilst you were writing your post. I see what you are saying and what I missed. Plus I agree with your conclusion.
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:58 am

Amid friction, Philadelphia seeks direct flights to Beijing
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20180 ... 16c66.html

Wonder which airlines would get to fly PHL-China routes
 
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu May 24, 2018 8:32 am

This Chinese report disclosed some revealing info on China-US service in interviews with industry insiders in the wake of AA’s recent announcement to suspend ORD-PEK this fall 中美航线风光不再 China-US routes losing steam

中美航线曾经被誉为全世界最赚钱的跨洋航线之一,一条航线的利润相当于两三条国内航线。

China-US routes used to be among the most profitable intercontinental services, with one route equal to 2 or 3 domestic Chinese ones in profit

“基本上所有洲际航线都亏钱,目前亏得最严重的应该是中澳航线。如果有补贴,部分国际航线可能会有一些盈利。”海航的一名客户经理告诉界面新闻记者。

An account manager of HU said virtually all intercontinental routes are losing money, with China-Australia routes bleeding the most. Some international routes may make profits if they are subsidized

国航的一位高层人员告诉界面新闻记者,“去年北京飞往洛杉矶、纽约以及旧金山航线的平均票价同比下滑了至少20%,下滑最厉害的是飞往华盛顿、休斯顿和圣何塞的航线,基本上没有什么盈利空间,如果有利润,也是微利,毕竟油价在持续走高。”

A senior official of Air China disclosed that CA’s average airfare in 2017 for PEK-LAX, PEK-SFO, PEK-NYC dropped by at least 20% over the previous year, with PEK-IAD, PEK-IAH, PEK-SJC down the most, making marginal profits if any, given fuel cost has been rising.
 
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FA9295
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:47 pm

Air China is now completely closing off PVG-SJC: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2018/
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:15 pm

FA9295 wrote:
Air China is now completely closing off PVG-SJC: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2018/


Not surprising at all, as the route has by far the lowest LF of all the US (mainland) routes out of PVG (59.84% in 2017), with monthly load factor at best around 70% or so. Almost 100% sure that CA jumped on the route just to prevent HU (or MU) from operating it anyway.
 
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FA9295
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:31 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Air China is now completely closing off PVG-SJC: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2018/


Not surprising at all, as the route has by far the lowest LF of all the US (mainland) routes out of PVG (59.84% in 2017), with monthly load factor at best around 70% or so. Almost 100% sure that CA jumped on the route just to prevent HU (or MU) from operating it anyway.

Yep. They for sure jumped on it to prevent another carrier from starting it. The poor load factors/yields on this particular route probably indicate that HU won't be adding the it themselves anytime soon. I wonder why it performed so poorly. I guess people in the San Jose area don't mind driving up north to SFO for a (possibly) cheaper and more convenient flight.
 
jbs2886
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:22 pm

FA9295 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Air China is now completely closing off PVG-SJC: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2018/


Not surprising at all, as the route has by far the lowest LF of all the US (mainland) routes out of PVG (59.84% in 2017), with monthly load factor at best around 70% or so. Almost 100% sure that CA jumped on the route just to prevent HU (or MU) from operating it anyway.

Yep. They for sure jumped on it to prevent another carrier from starting it. The poor load factors/yields on this particular route probably indicate that HU won't be adding the it themselves anytime soon. I wonder why it performed so poorly. I guess people in the San Jose area don't mind driving up north to SFO for a (possibly) cheaper and more convenient flight.


IMO this is pretty big as we don't have a lot of examples of Chinese airlines dropping long-haul international routes. Are we seeing an end to some route-sitting, or however you want to call it?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:31 pm

FA9295 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Air China is now completely closing off PVG-SJC: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2018/


Not surprising at all, as the route has by far the lowest LF of all the US (mainland) routes out of PVG (59.84% in 2017), with monthly load factor at best around 70% or so. Almost 100% sure that CA jumped on the route just to prevent HU (or MU) from operating it anyway.

Yep. They for sure jumped on it to prevent another carrier from starting it. The poor load factors/yields on this particular route probably indicate that HU won't be adding the it themselves anytime soon. I wonder why it performed so poorly. I guess people in the San Jose area don't mind driving up north to SFO for a (possibly) cheaper and more convenient flight.


My observation is that a lot of people in San Jose don't realize they can catch international flights directly from there. They drive to SFO because they don't know any better. They don't even bother to check SJC flights.

SJC-PVG has up to 70% LFs, correct? Does anyone know what the LFs are for HU SJC-PEK? I heard they are decent.

Maybe HU would have better success with SJC-PVG given their existing presence in SJC.
 
c933103
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:38 pm

how will CA reuse the bilateral right? PIT and ANC and such that were hinted previously?
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
iflykpdx
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:46 pm

Sorry to see us lose this one, but not terribly surprised. I have a feeling HU would have done/would do better on it than CA. HU's codeshares with AS and AA would make connecting traffic a much higher possibility than the limited options UA/CA have.
Airport Management - UND
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:09 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
SJC-PVG has up to 70% LFs, correct? Does anyone know what the LFs are for HU SJC-PEK? I heard they are decent.


Year-round LF for HU SJC-PEK is 73.55%. Not great but definitely decent compare to SJC-PVG.

iflykpdx wrote:
Sorry to see us lose this one, but not terribly surprised. I have a feeling HU would have done/would do better on it than CA. HU's codeshares with AS and AA would make connecting traffic a much higher possibility than the limited options UA/CA have.


Neither CA nor HU really has much feed to/from PVG. If anyone can make the route work, it would probably be MU. I doubt the target is beyond connection to/from SJC anyway (There are always SOME connecting traffic, but those can flow through a bunch of other US gateway much easier as-is).

Not to mention, 3x daily SFO-PVG vs. 2x weekly SJC-PVG, I just don't see how CA can make it work.

P.S. Speaking of SFO-PVG, those USD400 RT ticket on CZ going SFO-WUH-PVG are definitely enticing :white:
 
c933103
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:42 pm

CZ applied 3 weekly SHE-LAX from November
http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TZTG/2 ... 89324.html
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:36 pm

http://news.syd.com.cn/system/2018/08/0 ... 7056.shtml

It’s official

China Southern is going to start Shenyang-Los Angeles flights on Dec 18, 2018, with tickets already on sale now

CZ609 SHE 01:20 LAX 21:00 A330 246
CZ610 LAX 00:40 SHE 05:10


This will be the 1st direct nonstop btwn NE China and the US, saving up to 4-6.5 hours vs connecting flights via either PEK or ICN

Again, it’s not clear how much local governmental subsidy has gone into the service this time

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