With this news on Amazon's new hq, [HQ2] [/http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-hq2-could-go-to-virginia-evidence-2018-3] which airlines would look to create new routes. Of course SEA would be first but figure IAD may turn to a domestic O/D airport.

WN could add nonstop service to AUS, HOU, LAX, OAK, PHX, and SJC from IAD, and WN could also bring back nonstop service to MDW, LAS, and SAN from IAD.

I still don’t get why people make such a big deal about Amazon.

It’s just an online mall for cheap stuff.
Do the locals get this fired up when Wal-mart wants to open new offices????

—
AS - already flies sea-dca/iad
DL- adding sea-iad

Does a route really need more service for one company moving some employees to a new location?

BlatantEcho wrote:

AS - already flies sea-dca/iad

AS currently only has 1 daily nonstop to IAD from SEA, but AS could add a 2nd daily nonstop to IAD from SEA. AS could also add nonstop service to IAD from PDX, SJC, and SAN.

BlatantEcho wrote:

I still don’t get why people make such a big deal about Amazon.

It’s just an online mall for cheap stuff.
Do the locals get this fired up when Wal-mart wants to open new offices????

Firstly, Walmart doesn't usually open up multi billion dollar headquarters with 50,000+ jobs. While I agree the hype is stupid and they've turned it into a political reality show, the benefit to the city/region chosen is very tangible.

Secondly, they're quite a bit more than an online mall. Apart from the retail goods, they have a massive IT infrastructure and cloud service, a shipping company (with their own growing airline, albeit operated by existing carriers), a film and television studio, a production company, they produce various consumer electronics and products, they own a large chain of grocery stores, supply chain logistics, etc. They're even planning to get involved in the pharmaceutical business. They're worth something close to $200 billion, so there's quite a lot more to them than just online sales.

Depending on which area is chosen in DC (if one is indeed chosen) then there will likely be some impact to the closest airport. DCA doesn't really have room to grow, so there won't be much of an impact apart from increasing fares. They're also limited on perimeter slot exemptions, and I don't envision any more coming down the line any time soon. BWI could get a nice boost, on the other hand, if it ended up in Maryland. If Fairfax/Loudoun is chosen, which I believe has an excellent chance, there could be a positive impact on IAD. The airport has needed a domestic boost, and another 50,000 high paid residents can't hurt. I don't think any impacts will be too dramatic, however. I can't imagine an airline starting a bunch of new routes on that basis alone. If there are stronger numbers of domestic pax, it could eventually lead to that, but that would be a long term impact.

For what it's s worth I think Amazon locates its HQ2 headquarters to NOVA. The area is booming, there is highly educated population, and there is excellent infrastructure.

But the main reason is location to the political center of power in DC. Amazon has potential antitrust concerns and they have recently hired s bunch of lobbyists. General dynamics moved to NOVA for the same reason. Be close to the power and money.

Have they narrowed the list more? Is Boston out of the running?

BlatantEcho wrote:

I still don’t get why people make such a big deal about Amazon.

It’s just an online mall for cheap stuff.
Do the locals get this fired up when Wal-mart wants to open new offices????

These are high skill technology jobs plus all the supporting functions like Ops, Finance, Legal, Facilities, HR, etc. The direct economic impact is likely significant, but even more important is that over time it will bring even more tech companies and jobs to that region.

ElroyJetson wrote:

For what it's s worth I think Amazon locates its HQ2 headquarters to NOVA. The area is booming, there is highly educated population, and there is excellent infrastructure.

All I seem to hear from North VA residents is that the traffic is atrocious.

The Business Insider article may be right for the reason that a broken clock is correct twice a day. However, nothing whatsoever in the article: (1) shows any evidence of Amazon taking steps towards placing a headquarters at that site (i.e. has made a selection); and (2) gives any new information about the status of the selection process.

Instead, it points out that OTHER Amazon business units are locating in this area, and recites some of the benefits of the area, which are not news and prove absolutely-nothing. Locating a server farm at an internet junction with low electricity costs makes sense. Locating a worldwide headquarters there, not so much. Amazon pretty-clearly articulated its general criteria for a new headquarters, without giving weights to each criterion. We don't know what the weights are, so we can't even determine what the score would be -- if the company even actually chooses a headquarters based on the "objective" score.

I personally think what is going to happen is that Amazon is going to choose a headquarters based on the location that its top executives feel comfortable/proud of locating to, based largely on how much of an emotional/political fit the community is, because that's what the vast majority of companies do. I would be very surprised if they actually gave significant weight to the cost of living and quality of life for mid-level workers (QOL being defined in the more-mundane terms of how nice a house one could buy and how much one could afford the upkeep -- something important to most regular folks more than stuff like ballet and museums). Exxon did the latter when it moved its worldwide headquarters to Las Colinas in Texas in 1990; a lot of its worker-bee New Yorker employees stayed behind, but the ones that moved have consistently expressed wonderment at how very much happier they were with their very-different lives in Texas. But most companies, with some exceptions, just follow where their executives think would be best for themselves and their personal image. GE's move to Boston, for example, was a pure ego bath for its now-deposed CEO, which is currently largely being reversed.

I think that the purpose of the beauty contest is to put local politicians in a favorable frame of mind for a headquarters. Not all politicians are as self-interested as those in NYC, but I guarantee you that if Amazon announced that it was locating to a particular spot in NYC, the city council members would lay down an extortion gauntlet of unimaginable size. You need to provide a "community center" in your headquarters. You need to hire my brother in law. You need to donate to these "community organizations", and on and on. It's what happened when Home Depot, a desireable employer of low-skilled people, with health benefits, etc., wanted to build at a dilapidated spot in East Harlem. The local officials delayed and complained and demanded so much for so long, revision after revision, extortion upon extortion, until they killed the golden goose. Thereafter, a NY developer who knew how to navigate the lunacy took over the spot, presumably greased everybody early and often, and erected a very-successful project with Costco, Target, PetSmart, etc., transforming the area the way HD wanted to, but without HD.

To prevent the locals from figuring out every way to impede/extort AFTER a "decision was made", I believe that Amazon set up this beauty contest so that the locals would see the headquarters as the trophy that it is, and work to bring it and make commitments "BEFORE" a "decision was made". There will be plenty of time to try to demand stuff from Amazon once it is there, but at least it should be able to get built and open with a minimum of interference if Amazon can gain commitments beforehand. I don't think they are cynical enough to demand bids from everyone, hoping that their already-preferred location would be among those, only to "emerge" as the winner at the end. I do believe that they are open to persuasion, and the beauty contest probably also exposed their executives to certain areas and individuals that they otherwise wouldn't have considered, areas that might be suitable for some other kind of facility. So I think it was a worthwhile endeavor for them. But it's hard to imagine that, deep in their heart of hearts, the ultimate decision makers didn't/don't have an idea in mind of where they want to be.

I think that with Mr. Bezos's apparent interest in political involvement, and the need for a company so large to have politician friends, having an HQ near DC makes sense. And the area may win for that reason. But not for any of the so-called objective criteria that have been promulgated. Those would favor a place like Dallas or Austin -- places with great workers and QOL where business really gets done.

DfwRevolution wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

For what it's s worth I think Amazon locates its HQ2 headquarters to NOVA. The area is booming, there is highly educated population, and there is excellent infrastructure.

All I seem to hear from North VA residents is that the traffic is atrocious.

Traffic is atrocious in every major metro area in the country. I don't put too much credence in these types of articles, but if it happened, it would be a boost for IAD.

STT757 wrote:

Hopefully this would be the impetus needed to get UA and MWAA to finally build a new permanent concourse C/D.

I hope so, though I thought they were already in talks on that?
And maybe it'll get VA/WMATA to invest more in NoVa mass transit. DC Loop and orange/silver express tracks, anyone?*

But I'm terrified of what it will do to quality of life/housing costs/existing infrastructure.

*https://ggwash.org/view/65920/metro-arlington-dc-loop-core-capacity-second-rosslyn-station

FlyPNS1 wrote:

DfwRevolution wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

For what it's s worth I think Amazon locates its HQ2 headquarters to NOVA. The area is booming, there is highly educated population, and there is excellent infrastructure.

All I seem to hear from North VA residents is that the traffic is atrocious.

Traffic is atrocious in every major metro area in the country. I don't put too much credence in these types of articles, but if it happened, it would be a boost for IAD.

It depends on how close to DC they locate the HQ. Loudoun would be the smart move, since employees could reverse commute. Anything inside the beltway is a terrible idea and should be actively opposed.

The infrastructure is barely holding on as it is. Roads are at capacity, the Metro is literally a dumpster fire, and the political divide in VA means that additional infrastructure funding isn't likely. Now if Amazon fronts $1B for improvements, great, but I don't think it likely.

In terms of air service, I could see some slight uptick at IAD, but I think HQ2's impact will be generally negligible.

This is all wild speculation. Amazon hasn't updated anything. You hear people claiming they are sure it is Boston. You have people claiming they are sure it is DC. People speculate it will be Austin. Just guesses and nobody will know until Amazon makes the announcement.

I agree , nobody really knows, my personal guess is either Chicago, or New York. Does Bezos really want to be in the shadow of Trump in the D.C area, I would think that Boston is probably out as Amazon has invested much there recently, which leads me to believe that all those jobs to Boston lately means they are the consolation prize. But we will see it could be neither of these cities.

I agree , nobody really knows, my personal guess is either Chicago, or New York. Does Bezos really want to be in the shadow of Trump in the D.C area, I would think that Boston is probably out as Amazon has invested much there recently, which leads me to believe that all those jobs to Boston lately means they are the consolation prize. But we will see it could be neither of these cities.

Indy wrote:

This is all wild speculation. Amazon hasn't updated anything. You hear people claiming they are sure it is Boston. You have people claiming they are sure it is DC. People speculate it will be Austin. Just guesses and nobody will know until Amazon makes the announcement.

I think it will be Denver. Growing and very talented technology population, big airport with access to almost anywhere in the US and major European and Asian airports, great city infrastructure, affordable housing (for now), great outdoors, a two+ hour flight to SEA, and 300 days of sun a year (opposite of Seattle). Oh, and traffic!

atcsundevil wrote:

Firstly, Walmart doesn't usually open up multi billion dollar headquarters with 50,000+ jobs. While I agree the hype is stupid and they've turned it into a political reality show, the benefit to the city/region chosen is very tangible.

Amazon's been around for nearly 24 years and its HQ houses 40,000 employees in Seattle; do people really believe Amazon is going to open its HQ2 with 50,000 new employees overnight? HQ2 will open with a few hundred employees and gradually grow... it'll likely take many years (decades) to achieve that level of growth -- if they ever do.

Despite a perpetual, infinite number of threads speculating the impact of HQ2 on YYY and ZZZ market, it'll take at least a decade -- and probably longer -- before HQ2 has anything more than a negligible effect. HQ2 isn't going to open overnight, and it isn't going to employee more than a few hundred people overnight. But let the DL AUS hub speculation begin...

DfwRevolution wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

For what it's s worth I think Amazon locates its HQ2 headquarters to NOVA. The area is booming, there is highly educated population, and there is excellent infrastructure.

All I seem to hear from North VA residents is that the traffic is atrocious.

I lived in Minneapolis for six years. The traffic is atrocious in any major city. The metro is building a line out to the area where Amazon would locate. Interstate 66 in right there, and you have a major airport in IAD a few miles away.

I do not know any other contending city that has that kind of infrastructure less than 5 miles from the site.

The metro line will be brand new. And as far the complaints about the DC metro.....I've been on subway systems all over the world. The DC metro is the nicest I've ever been on with the exception maybe of Rome. It is generally clean and efficient and it is quite extensive. It is certain much nicer than the NYC subway system.

Also the area where Amazon is looking is already a high tech corridor. The proximity to the power structure in the Capital does not hurt either.

Obviously I could be wrong, but I think NOVA will be the choice.

ElroyJetson wrote:

DfwRevolution wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

For what it's s worth I think Amazon locates its HQ2 headquarters to NOVA. The area is booming, there is highly educated population, and there is excellent infrastructure.

All I seem to hear from North VA residents is that the traffic is atrocious.

The metro line will be brand new. And as far the complaints about the DC metro.....I've been on subway systems all over the world. The DC metro is the nicest I've ever been on with the exception maybe of Rome. It is generally clean and efficient and it is quite extensive. It is certain much nicer than the NYC subway system.

Forgive me for falling on the floor laughing.

The DC Metro is middling even by American standards.

Vienna? Munich? Paris?
I can't remember the last time those systems electrocuted someone to death. And I say this as someone who commutes on WMATA every day now.

compensateme wrote:

Amazon's been around for nearly 24 years and its HQ houses 40,000 employees in Seattle; do people really believe Amazon is going to open its HQ2 with 50,000 new employees overnight? HQ2 will open with a few hundred employees and gradually grow... it'll likely take many years (decades) to achieve that level of growth -- if they ever do.

Despite a perpetual, infinite number of threads speculating the impact of HQ2 on YYY and ZZZ market, it'll take at least a decade -- and probably longer -- before HQ2 has anything more than a negligible effect. HQ2 isn't going to open overnight, and it isn't going to employee more than a few hundred people overnight. But let the DL AUS hub speculation begin...

This is the logical thinking people don't seem to understand. Everybody is so blinded by the number of jobs and potential economic impact they don't seem to get this won't happen overnight. In an area like NOVA/DC the way these jobs will roll in will just be similar to a company of this size slowly building up to a 50,000 employee presence. Also, Amazon already has a significant presence in the region and a good chance many of those employees will be included in the final 50,000 total, so it won't really be an additional 50,000.

There are also a number of companies in the area who are concerned about Amazon locating there. My roommate currently works for an IT consulting firm which has told him if Amazon shows up they will consider moving out of the area so they aren't having to fight for talent. At the end of the day, the way people move in and out of an area like the DC region, I don't think there will be a significant increase in air service just because of one employer. Will we see increased service to places like SEA, SFO area and AUS, it wouldn't surprise me, but I also think that will be a result of the natural growth in those markets along with a possible Amazon relocation.

Also, with this being a second HQ, it will surely have all the amenities and training facilities Amazon has at their current SEA HQ, so they're not constantly sending people back and forth between the coasts. With Amazon being a tech company, I'm sure they're also very well versed in having video conferences and what not to where people won't be flying back to SEA for meetings all the time.

BlatantEcho wrote:

I still don’t get why people make such a big deal about Amazon.
It’s just an online mall for cheap stuff.

+ Amazon Web Services, the largest public cloud infrastructure that runs 1/3rd of the total internet sites across the world
+ Amazon Prime Video and Studios making movies and TV shows
+ Amazon Hardware making Kindle e-readers & tablets, Echo home assistant devices
+ Amazon Prime Air freight logistics airline
+ Whole Foods chain of grocery stores nationwide
+ Twitch, one of the world's largest live video streaming platform

When 50,000 highly-skilled employees with disposable incomes move to a metro area, it will generate a ton of extra demand for air travel. Alaska and Delta are Amazon's "preferred airlines" for business travel out of SEA, both offering special employee offers and accelerated FF status programs in return for millions of $$ of business from Amazon. The home airline of wherever HQ2 opens will also certainly get into a similar arrangement, so it matters.

LOWS wrote:

Forgive me for falling on the floor laughing.

The DC Metro is middling even by American standards.

Vienna? Munich? Paris?
I can't remember the last time those systems electrocuted someone to death. And I say this as someone who commutes on WMATA every day now.

This. From Jeff's own WaPo..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/metro-sank-into-crisis-despite-decades-of-warnings/2016/04/24/1c4db91c-0736-11e6-a12f-ea5aed7958dc_story.html?utm_term=.5b14dedcd7ba
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/wp/2016/04/26/the-state-of-metro-is-a-gothic-nightmare/?utm_term=.9f542f227a67

DC Metro shouldn't make it to the Powerpoint slides.

The Amazon Aerotropolis. Master planned city. Mr. Bezos is a man of vision. Therefore, Amazon needs to own the biggest cargo-centric airport, and develop the world's first photovoltaic-powered city. Move over Zhengzhou!
http://aerotropolisbusinessconcepts.aer ... ov_152.pdf

KiloRomeoDelta wrote:

+ Amazon Web Services, the largest public cloud infrastructure that runs 1/3rd of the total internet sites across the world
+ Amazon Prime Video and Studios making movies and TV shows
+ Amazon Hardware making Kindle e-readers & tablets, Echo home assistant devices
+ Amazon Prime Air freight logistics airline
+ Whole Foods chain of grocery stores nationwide
+ Twitch, one of the world's largest live video streaming platform

Yet, what will actually move to HQ2? It's not that their HQ in Seattle will move away.

OKCDCA wrote:

This is the logical thinking people don't seem to understand. Everybody is so blinded by the number of jobs and potential economic impact they don't seem to get this won't happen overnight. In an area like NOVA/DC the way these jobs will roll in will just be similar to a company of this size slowly building up to a 50,000 employee presence. Also, Amazon already has a significant presence in the region and a good chance many of those employees will be included in the final 50,000 total, so it won't really be an additional 50,000.

Correct. Here in The Netherlands Unilever decided to change its dual HQ structure into a 1 HQ structure. The result is that we'll be getting 100 extra jobs in The Netherlands because Unilever decided to consolidate its HQ in Rotterdam. I'm not saying that the Amazon HQ2 will be small, but the financial world will not accept a dual HQ structure which increases the number of staff and runs inefficiently.

BTW for all those not so familiar with Unilever, it's the number two after P&G in personal care products and about 1/3 in revenue compared to Amazon.

I'm not sold on the political benefit of moving to DC. 50k jobs could be enough to own a senator and a few congressmen, but not if you are playing in the same pond as Honeywell or the public sector jobs.

IMO, the project won't be a "headquarters", but product and service development and manufacturing. Amazon already makes (or rebrands OEM'd) Amazon Basic products, and is targeting aerospace, biomedicine, software engineering, and telecommunications products, and new advanced business services (it's already a major player in advanced business services). Therefore, the project is the union of greenfield, skilled workforce, logistics, and post-grad population. IOW, Seattle without 9 months of rain.

wjcandee wrote:

The Business Insider article may be right for the reason that a broken clock is correct twice a day. However, nothing whatsoever in the article: (1) shows any evidence of Amazon taking steps towards placing a headquarters at that site (i.e. has made a selection); and (2) gives any new information about the status of the selection process.

Instead, it points out that OTHER Amazon business units are locating in this area, and recites some of the benefits of the area, which are not news and prove absolutely-nothing. Locating a server farm at an internet junction with low electricity costs makes sense. Locating a worldwide headquarters there, not so much. Amazon pretty-clearly articulated its general criteria for a new headquarters, without giving weights to each criterion. We don't know what the weights are, so we can't even determine what the score would be -- if the company even actually chooses a headquarters based on the "objective" score.

I personally think what is going to happen is that Amazon is going to choose a headquarters based on the location that its top executives feel comfortable/proud of locating to, based largely on how much of an emotional/political fit the community is, because that's what the vast majority of companies do. I would be very surprised if they actually gave significant weight to the cost of living and quality of life for mid-level workers (QOL being defined in the more-mundane terms of how nice a house one could buy and how much one could afford the upkeep -- something important to most regular folks more than stuff like ballet and museums). ..............................

An excellent analysis. Amazon will not choose ANY of the locations mentioned so far in earlier (than this) Posts.

Amazon was in NOVA the other week surveying sites. This is the site they were surveying. It is right next to the metro (blue line on the map).

ElroyJetson wrote:

But the main reason is location to the political center of power in DC. Amazon has potential antitrust concerns and they have recently hired s bunch of lobbyists. General dynamics moved to NOVA for the same reason. Be close to the power and money.

That sounds just about in Bezos' wandering-eyed, megolomaniac wheelhouse.

Mr. Bezos doesn't need to be any closer to Capitol Hill than he already is. WaPo has the ear of Congress and the Executive Branch, it's a staple of their day. I don't think there's enough greenfield near IAD for the big picture. MCI, on the other hand.... plenty of greenfield, pro-business environment, etc.