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airboeingbus
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Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:52 pm

With DL being such a big A321 customer, what do you think the odds are DL will fly the A321LR to replace or expand NB TATL routes currently operated by the 757? Does their 100 A321neo order include options for the A321LR.?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:08 pm

I think they may choose to buy the A321LR for Transatlantic routes. They also could potentially use it for Hawaii. They also may be content operating 757s long enough to wait for a new 797 from Boeing if they go that direction.

The A321LR is just a 7,000lbs MTOW upgrade for the A321neo. Delta may choose to get some of their A321neos with the additional fuel tanks, higher MTOW, and business class seats. We may never even get a formal announcement up until they decide what seats and routes they want to deploy the plane on.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:20 pm

airboeingbus wrote:
With DL being such a big A321 customer, what do you think the odds are DL will fly the A321LR to replace or expand NB TATL routes currently operated by the 757? Does their 100 A321neo order include options for the A321LR.?


They have 100 firm orders and 100 options for A321NEOs. I'm pretty sure the first 100 will all be straight NEOs, but I would imagine the second 100 could be converted to LRs. That said, the NEO is capable of some current short Transatlantic routes and Hawaii (the current 757 routes) should DL choose to ETOPS them. I would imagine that some of that decision is riding on the MOM from Boeing.
 
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:30 pm

flyfresno wrote:
They have 100 firm orders and 100 options for A321NEOs. I'm pretty sure the first 100 will all be straight NEOs, but I would imagine the second 100 could be converted to LRs. That said, the NEO is capable of some current short Transatlantic routes and Hawaii (the current 757 routes) should DL choose to ETOPS them. I would imagine that some of that decision is riding on the MOM from Boeing.


I seriously doubt Delta would ever want 100 A321LRs. Airbus charges a higher price for the A321LR which will lead Delta to order only as many as they need. The additional fuel tanks are also not easily removable amd add weight while reducing cargo volume. Delta would not want to be carrying them around when not needed. Delta only has a limited number of ETOPS 757s for example.
 
airbazar
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:59 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I seriously doubt Delta would ever want 100 A321LRs. Airbus charges a higher price for the A321LR which will lead Delta to order only as many as they need. The additional fuel tanks are also not easily removable amd add weight while reducing cargo volume. Delta would not want to be carrying them around when not needed. Delta only has a limited number of ETOPS 757s for example.

They may not have a choice. Rumor has it that the LR will become the base model. The only choice they may have would be to not install the ACTs, I think.
Having said that, do they need the range? What is DL's longest 752 route today? CDG-RDU is a 10 hr route. Is that their longest route?
 
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:32 pm

airbazar wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I seriously doubt Delta would ever want 100 A321LRs. Airbus charges a higher price for the A321LR which will lead Delta to order only as many as they need. The additional fuel tanks are also not easily removable amd add weight while reducing cargo volume. Delta would not want to be carrying them around when not needed. Delta only has a limited number of ETOPS 757s for example.

They may not have a choice. Rumor has it that the LR will become the base model. The only choice they may have would be to not install the ACTs, I think.
Having said that, do they need the range? What is DL's longest 752 route today? CDG-RDU is a 10 hr route. Is that their longest route?


That's one of the longest B757 flights anywhere. Period.
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caverunner17
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:45 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
IMHO, Delta will order Boeing MOM. I suppose they could order some 321LRs as a bridge to that if they're concerned about Boeing's timing and/or 757 longevity.

MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.
 
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:48 pm

airbazar wrote:
They may not have a choice. Rumor has it that the LR will become the base model. The only choice they may have would be to not install the ACTs, I think.


Typically, aircraft manufacturers sell different weight variants for different prices. The difference is only on paper, but it's a way for Airbus, Boeing and the likes to differentiate prices for customers who don't need the full capabilities. Not seldom, airlines later increase the MTOW by simply buying an increased MTOW on paper.

So from a certain LN, all 321s can technically be certified at 97t, but many will be sold with a lower MTOW.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:54 pm

caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
IMHO, Delta will order Boeing MOM. I suppose they could order some 321LRs as a bridge to that if they're concerned about Boeing's timing and/or 757 longevity.

MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.
 
Flighty
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:56 pm

No idea if Delta will order A321LR. Personally, I find it DL is in 3rd or 4th place behind UA, AA and B6 in needing that airplane. But ultimately, they all probably have a use for it. Especially if it is sold at a reasonable COST. Airbus will try to charge a pretty penny, but its production cost will be low (please correct if I am wrong).
 
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flee
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:10 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
IMHO, Delta will order Boeing MOM. I suppose they could order some 321LRs as a bridge to that if they're concerned about Boeing's timing and/or 757 longevity.

MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.

How about needing more aircraft for expansion? DL needs to grow too, not just remain static.
 
airbazar
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
IMHO, Delta will order Boeing MOM. I suppose they could order some 321LRs as a bridge to that if they're concerned about Boeing's timing and/or 757 longevity.

MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.


The only urgent need is the fact that the A321neo is 25% more efficient than the 752 and that's a lot of money they'd be leaving on the table by not making the switch on the longer routes.
With 100 firm orders it will be very hard to explain to shareholders why the gas guzzling 752 are not being replaced by A321neo's.
 
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:19 pm

airbazar wrote:
The only urgent need is the fact that the A321neo is 25% more efficient than the 752 and that's a lot of money they'd be leaving on the table by not making the switch on the longer routes.
With 100 firm orders it will be very hard to explain to shareholders why the gas guzzling 752 are not being replaced by A321neo's.


Because there is a capital cost to purchase new aircraft and the capital cost on the 757 fleet is nil. DL has run the numbers on capital, maintenance, and fuel costs for the 757 fleet and they must be satisfied for now or the birds would be parked.
 
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:31 pm

diverdave wrote:
DL has run the numbers on capital, maintenance, and fuel costs for the 757 fleet and they must be satisfied for now or the birds would be parked.


I agree, but is this because there isn't a suitable replacement until now though?
I guess there's a fine line between paid off but more expensive to operate aeroplanes, than expensive to lease, but cheaper to run new ones. When a new option does appear, that would skew the figures somewhat, and I would imagine airlines would be looking to run the numbers again with the new options.
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airbazar
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:19 pm

diverdave wrote:
airbazar wrote:
The only urgent need is the fact that the A321neo is 25% more efficient than the 752 and that's a lot of money they'd be leaving on the table by not making the switch on the longer routes.
With 100 firm orders it will be very hard to explain to shareholders why the gas guzzling 752 are not being replaced by A321neo's.


Because there is a capital cost to purchase new aircraft and the capital cost on the 757 fleet is nil. DL has run the numbers on capital, maintenance, and fuel costs for the 757 fleet and they must be satisfied for now or the birds would be parked.

Did you miss the part where DL has 100 A321NEO's on firm order and therefore they will be incurring those capital costs whether they put them on 752 routes or not?
Typically airlines will put the older, less fuel efficient airplane on shorter routes not on longer routes. Or they'll reconfig them to a higher density and put them on leisure routes.
 
caverunner17
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
IMHO, Delta will order Boeing MOM. I suppose they could order some 321LRs as a bridge to that if they're concerned about Boeing's timing and/or 757 longevity.

MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.

You claimed that DL will order the MOM, a non-existent aircraft that wouldn't even see the light of day until the mid 2020's. By the time of launch, that'd put DL's 757's average age of 28-29, of which half of which are older (thus average). They can't wait for the MOM for 757 replacements. I assume if they need the range, they'll convert some of the 321 NEOs to the LR's.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:10 pm

At one point I am sure that they will fly the A321LR! They even have tons of A321neo (ACF) on order already. Isnt the LR just a additional fuel tanks + paperwork upgrade from the standard A321neo?
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e38
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:38 pm

airboeingbus, prior to posting this topic on Airliners.net, did you communicate with management/leadership personnel, flight operations supervisors, or the fleet development offices at Delta asking whether they intend to order the A321LR and what the deployment strategy would be?

e38
 
Tn55337
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:45 pm

caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.

You claimed that DL will order the MOM, a non-existent aircraft that wouldn't even see the light of day until the mid 2020's. By the time of launch, that'd put DL's 757's average age of 28-29, of which half of which are older (thus average). They can't wait for the MOM for 757 replacements. I assume if they need the range, they'll convert some of the 321 NEOs to the LR's.

Why do so many people on here act like 30 years old is a brick wall that aircraft cannot cross? FedEx has some birds that are 45+ years old. It is all about mantance.
 
caverunner17
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:01 pm

Tn55337 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.

You claimed that DL will order the MOM, a non-existent aircraft that wouldn't even see the light of day until the mid 2020's. By the time of launch, that'd put DL's 757's average age of 28-29, of which half of which are older (thus average). They can't wait for the MOM for 757 replacements. I assume if they need the range, they'll convert some of the 321 NEOs to the LR's.

Why do so many people on here act like 30 years old is a brick wall that aircraft cannot cross? FedEx has some birds that are 45+ years old. It is all about mantance.

I don't disagree, but FedEx is also only doing a handful of flights per day on a single aircraft. While DL isn't UA or AA, it's no secret the issues UA had with their 747's at the end and AA has had with some of their 767's. Especially if you're using the aircraft for long haul, MX issues popping up away from home base can create huge costs. I'm also guessing that FX has a lot more fleet slack than a commercial airline does.
 
e38
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Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:22 pm

deleted. duplicate post
Last edited by e38 on Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
e38
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:22 pm

Quoting caverunner17 (Reply # 20), " FX has a lot more fleet slack than a commercial airline does."

why do you think that? They have a schedule to meet, do they not? and . . . isn't FedEx a commercial airline? commercial=commerce=business=moving packages and freight?

e38
 
bzcat
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:59 pm

e38 wrote:
Quoting caverunner17 (Reply # 20), " FX has a lot more fleet slack than a commercial airline does."

why do you think that? They have a schedule to meet, do they not? and . . . isn't FedEx a commercial airline? commercial=commerce=business=moving packages and freight?

e38


Most FX flights are in the middle of the night and most FX planes make 1 or 2 turns per 24 hour period. Compare with DL or typical passenger airline that turns up to 6 or 7 short haul flights per plane, or use long haul planes on short haul flights in between the long hauls.

Point being FX runs far fewer cycles than passenger airlines therefore, they can keep the old planes flying longer.
 
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:24 pm

airbazar wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.


The only urgent need is the fact that the A321neo is 25% more efficient than the 752 and that's a lot of money they'd be leaving on the table by not making the switch on the longer routes.
With 100 firm orders it will be very hard to explain to shareholders why the gas guzzling 752 are not being replaced by A321neo's.

Lol.

Yeah I'm sure stockholders are really going to start questioning the best run legacy in the US, that has been producing the best numbers and does so because they don't go out and buy shinny new jets to replace airplanes that aren't even half way through life.

The 321NEO is only 25% efficient out of the gate if Airbus gives them to Delta for free. If Airbus is willing to do that, I'm sure Delta would replace the 757 fleet tomorrow......but I'm guessing that isn't going to happen.

Till that point the 757 fleet will continue to live on till the are ~30 and/or need their 5th overhaul.

caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MOM doesn't exist and won't exist in a usable form for airlines for a number of years.


Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.

You claimed that DL will order the MOM, a non-existent aircraft that wouldn't even see the light of day until the mid 2020's. By the time of launch, that'd put DL's 757's average age of 28-29, of which half of which are older (thus average). They can't wait for the MOM for 757 replacements. I assume if they need the range, they'll convert some of the 321 NEOs to the LR's.


The oldest 75S is a 96 build. She turns 30 in 2026. There a solid chance of the 797 being ready by that point in time.

On top of that the 5600 ships that are ETOPS 75H fleet are all 2000+ builds and they are currently doing domestic/Hawaii which could be replaced with the standard 321NEO and those birds shifted to TATL operations. The 75P fleet(5 of them) are the last 5 752s off the line and could also be shifted to replace the 75S.

In theory Delta could keep flying the 752 internationally till 2030 fairly easily.

So yes, Delta has plenty of time for the MOM. They would prefer to launch the aircraft though.




Right now Delta doesn't need to replace anything international till 2025 that isn't already pinned for replacement with the 350/339 order. Delta has the flexibility to grow slightly and replace what needs to be replaced till that point. The 199 seat 752s will be replaced overtime with 321s and 739s. (along with some/all M88, M90 and 320s.)
 
777PHX
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:10 am

Tn55337 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Uh huh. Delta has 100 757-200s, average age 21.4 years. Delta has flown other 757s right out to age 30.

If you see an urgent need to replace those aircraft please explain in detail.

You claimed that DL will order the MOM, a non-existent aircraft that wouldn't even see the light of day until the mid 2020's. By the time of launch, that'd put DL's 757's average age of 28-29, of which half of which are older (thus average). They can't wait for the MOM for 757 replacements. I assume if they need the range, they'll convert some of the 321 NEOs to the LR's.

Why do so many people on here act like 30 years old is a brick wall that aircraft cannot cross? FedEx has some birds that are 45+ years old. It is all about mantance.


Airplanes have finite lifespans dictated by cycles and hours regardless of how much maintenance you throw at them. Widebodies like the DC10/MD10 age slower because they typically fly longer stage lengths than narrowbodies. This, coupled with FX's far lower utililization of their aircraft vs a scheduled passenger airline, is why they're still flying 45 year old aircraft.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:47 am

I am sure Delta will use the 321 to new routes in high density on Mexico, Central America and South America. They will use them in Hawaii, and lower density LR versions transatlantic, they always have great planning and such a big 321 order was not put on a whim. They will put away hangar queens (any model), and use the resources to make the most bang for the buck. I don't know why everyone keeps saying the same Boeing MOM mantra, since there is no such thing... and I am sure Airbus will have better foothold designing and delivering a revised A322, and since we are talking about imaginary aircraft why not a CS500LR ?
In the end the A321Neo (any version) is quite a capable aircraft for many missions, even if it doesn't have enough fish in the cargo hold.

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ElroyJetson
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:35 am

DL has publicly said they are very interested in the 797. I take them at their word. If Boeing does not come up with a suitable alternative for the 757 in time... Sure why not?

But the A321 would be a stop gap until a real MOM plane comes out, either by Boeing or Airbus.
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:04 am

Because the A321 is underwinged, and because some of the 752's high operating costs are tied up in cycle-dependent maintenance, the operating cost equation between the two frames is not quite the same as you'd expect between an older and a newer frame in most cases. The difference is less on very long segments than it is on a high number of shorter ones. Delta already has lots of A321ceo on order for very short-haul routes, but I expect the ideal niche for the first batch of A321neo will be to take over some non-lie-flat transcon service from the 75D and 739ER fleets. I suspect that as long as the fleet plan requires 757 capacity the best place to put those 757s will be on TATL, Hawaii, and lie-flat transcon service.

Those 757s equipped for international service are between 14 and 22 years old, with relatively low cycles as they have been doing this sort of flying for much of their lives. They are either fully paid off or on dirt-cheap lease terms, so capital cost is zero. They can last as long as Delta wants them to, and easily until Boeing's current timetable to get NMA in service.

That's why I'm sure Delta will order more A321neo but I strongly doubt they will be ACT-equipped ("LRs").
 
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OA940
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:44 am

They said they'd like to be one of the launch customers of the 797, so I guess they'll probably wait to see the final stats of that before deciding. I think there's a 40% chance of them getting the LR, but they do seem more interested in the 797, since (according to Boeing at least) it would allow them to replace the 767 as well.
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N717TW
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:00 am

Delta has some of the youngest 757s left in the world, including the last five to come off the line. So the issue, as others have pointed out, is not the 21 average age but the age of the ETOP ex-TW and ex-MU (plus the ex-NW birds from the interport/Asia fleet and a few other late builds they have picked up). These planes are running an average of 2.5 cycles per day right now as they are almost exclusively flying TCON and TATL. The days of flying a 757 from ATL to MCO, RDU, or even LAX are pretty much gone now as the original Dl and NW '75 fleet is being retired as they cycle out. There are also 16 757-300s in the fleet from the late 90s that can be configured into a premium configuration although it would be a stretch to get them to fly anything beyond JFK-Ireland/Azores. The 757 fleet, by virtue of its commonality to the 767, will be readily serviceable for years to come. Therefore, while not as efficient as the 321LR, the depreciated costs means DL can competitively use the planes on thin TATL routes from BOS/JFK/AMS/CDG for another 12 to 15 years. At that point the TATL landscape will look a lot different and who knows what direction DL will want to go.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:28 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
DL has publicly said they are very interested in the 797. I take them at their word.
Strange, you didn't want to take them at their word when you had a different opinion to them on the A330/A350 order. I agree with everything you say except for when your opinion differs from mine.

ElroyJetson wrote:
If Boeing does not come up with a suitable alternative for the 757 in time... Sure why not?

But the A321 would be a stop gap until a real MOM plane comes out, either by Boeing or Airbus.
But somehow the 321NEOLR is not a viable alternative, an aircraft that can match the performance isnt viable. Oh well you/Delta know best (depending on if its a Boeing order of course)

deltal1011man wrote:
Yeah I'm sure stockholders are really going to start questioning the best run legacy in the US
Er yes, that's their prerogative and its easy to see well run companies becoming complacent and falling apart because they weren't questioning their own decisions.

deltal1011man wrote:
If Airbus is willing to do that, I'm sure Delta would replace the 757 fleet tomorrow......but I'm guessing that isn't going to happen.
Based on delivery times they may have to place orderss up to 5 years before deliveries and the evaluation process could take a long time so it might be sooner than you think that decisions about replacements are happening. I would also expect there to be constant reevaluation of all the current options potential aircraft.

deltal1011man wrote:
So yes, Delta has plenty of time for the MOM. They would prefer to launch the aircraft though.
WHAT AIRCRAFT!!!!! THE MOM DOESN'T EXIST! Deltas public statements from the CEO are a way for delta to be part of the program and define what they think the MOM should be, its the sales equivalent of me sitting in the drivers seat of a Lamborghini and saying "I'll think about it".

seabosdca wrote:
Because the A321 is underwinged
and with a dihedral of about 5 degrees, similar to the 757. If you mean to say that the performance is lower than that of the 757 then you'd have to point out where it is lacking because right now I cannot see it.

So, will delta use the 321 in its NEOLR guise? maybe. Probably a few I'd guess but do they need to replace the 757 one for one? dunno. Who knows if the 757 is even right for what they have now. They use it because they have it and therefore its responsible business to try and make money out of using it. 321NOELR and MOM don't even seem to be in the same size segment from all the noise (mostly a.net noise)
so these two would likely complement each other the same way that the 757/767 did.

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estorilm
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:12 pm

airbazar wrote:
They may not have a choice. Rumor has it that the LR will become the base model. The only choice they may have would be to not install the ACTs, I think.
Having said that, do they need the range? What is DL's longest 752 route today? CDG-RDU is a 10 hr route. Is that their longest route?


I think you interpreted things slightly incorrectly - the "rumor" (which isn't really a rumor, it's pretty well known now) is that the ACF configuration (allowing for the capability of 240 pax and emergency egress / door certifications) along with the MTOW bump of the LR, will become the base configuration of the A321NEO as an actual aircraft in production.

Certifications, actual MTOW ratings, pricing, installation of the required ACTs, add-ons, different part specs, etc is where the "LR" identifier comes in, and that's when the aircraft becomes more expensive as a model from an Airbus sales point of view.

It's just a smart way to streamline the production of the 321 while dramatically increasing the profit margins for any airlines which may want it (adding a few parts in FAL) as capability-wise, it offers nearly an entirely new market segment with virtually the same airframe.

Having said that - yes all those certifications and parts do add to the cost of the aircraft, and I'm not sure they'd want all that capability flying around short domestic routes. They will likely change the 100 options to a specific number of aircraft required for specific long range routes, where they'll remain for their entire usable lifespan.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:35 pm

When I said a real MoM I meant a 757/767 replacement. The A321 LR serves as a fine 757 replacement on shorter and thinner TATL routes, but I do not think anyone can credibly call it a true 767 replacement. I think DL, UA, AA and many other airlines want a MoM plane that can serve to replace both the 757 and 767.

In most instances both the 788 and A332 are too much plane. Hence the problem. The A321 LR and the 737 Max are too little plane. It sounds like the market thinks 225-260 pax and 4500-5000nm range is just right.....of course if the price is right as well.

We'll see if Boeing or Airbus can build a credible alternative. I am quite sure that is what DL and others truly want.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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Polot
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:58 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
When I said a real MoM I meant a 757/767 replacement. The A321 LR serves as a fine 757 replacement on shorter and thinner TATL routes, but I do not think anyone can credibly call it a true 767 replacement. I think DL, UA, AA and many other airlines want a MoM plane that can serve to replace both the 757 and 767.

:checkmark:
That is the main reason that DL, AA, and UA have all expressed interest in the MoM. People have a tendency to focus on the 757 and the forget that the US3 are basically the three largest operators of the 767 which currently has no direct replacement. You can’t have your cake and eat it too- if the A321LR is a success than TATL competition will further increase from new lower cost entrants and from additional fragmentation as a result of new routes. Upgrading 763 routes to higher capacity 787s, A330neos, A350s, or whatever may not be a viable option, and the A321LR lacks the payload range to replace all 763 routes.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:03 pm

Polot wrote:
...forget that the US3 are basically the three largest operators of the 767 which currently has no direct replacement


As per Boeing's propaganda, frequency is the future against volume. 2x321 make a good 767 replacement. And the US has plenty of slots :stirthepot:
 
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Polot
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:12 pm

Jayafe wrote:
Polot wrote:
...forget that the US3 are basically the three largest operators of the 767 which currently has no direct replacement


As per Boeing's propaganda, frequency is the future against volume. 2x321 make a good 767 replacement. And the US has plenty of slots :stirthepot:

A A321, even an A321LR, is not going to be flying SLC-AMS for example (a DL 767 route), or IAH-MUC (a UA 767 route). Not all 767 routes are <=~4100nm.
Last edited by Polot on Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Flighty
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:14 pm

Polot wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
When I said a real MoM I meant a 757/767 replacement. The A321 LR serves as a fine 757 replacement on shorter and thinner TATL routes, but I do not think anyone can credibly call it a true 767 replacement. I think DL, UA, AA and many other airlines want a MoM plane that can serve to replace both the 757 and 767.

:checkmark:
That is the main reason that DL, AA, and UA have all expressed interest in the MoM. People have a tendency to focus on the 757 and the forget that the US3 are basically the three largest operators of the 767 which currently has no direct replacement. You can’t have your cake and eat it too- if the A321LR is a success than TATL competition will further increase from new lower cost entrants and from additional fragmentation as a result of new routes. Upgrading 763 routes to higher capacity 787s, A330neos, A350s, or whatever may not be a viable option, and the A321LR lacks the payload range to replace all 763 routes.


Yes, that is a market-realistic story. In competition, a smaller airplane often defeats a bigger airplane. With greater market fragmentation (across cities and frequency), raising seat count above the 767 may simply not be an option. If the customers don't exist, then those new seats operate at a total loss. This is has kept many 767s flying longer than expected. :checkmark:
 
RamblinMan
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:54 pm

airbazar wrote:
With 100 firm orders it will be very hard to explain to shareholders why the gas guzzling 752 are not being replaced by A321neo's.


Anybody who holds enough shares that DL would give a damn what they think would probably understand the concept of capital costs. Those 752s are paid for. A321LRs are expensive.

Same reason I haven't replaced my '05 Titan with a new F150. 15mpg vs 23mpg. I'd love the better mileage but the old truck is paid for, and the new one would run 500/month. Would take a heck of a lot of gas to make up the difference, so it isn't time yet.
 
Flighty
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:59 pm

I don't think shareholders will question Delta's fleet / tech ops financial optimization because frankly, DL and NWA wrote the book on that subject. And it continues to pay off.
 
airbazar
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:01 pm

Polot wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
Polot wrote:
...forget that the US3 are basically the three largest operators of the 767 which currently has no direct replacement


As per Boeing's propaganda, frequency is the future against volume. 2x321 make a good 767 replacement. And the US has plenty of slots :stirthepot:

A A321, even an A321LR, is not going to be flying SLC-AMS for example (a DL 767 route), or IAH-MUC (a UA 767 route). Not all 767 routes are <=~4100nm.

Neither will the 767 as that will be replaced by an A330neo in due time :stirthepot:

estorilm wrote:
Having said that - yes all those certifications and parts do add to the cost of the aircraft, and I'm not sure they'd want all that capability flying around short domestic routes. They will likely change the 100 options to a specific number of aircraft required for specific long range routes, where they'll remain for their entire usable lifespan.

True but no one is suggesting it will be anything but a sub-fleet of LR's.
As far as the pricing goes, no one know how much the airplane really costs so any pricing discussion here is irrelevant but I'd be willing that if DL is interested in a few LR's Airbus would have no problem giving them a good price considering they have 300 A321's on order.

N717TW wrote:
Delta has some of the youngest 757s left in the world, including the last five to come off the line.

Yes they do but they also have some really old ones and 300 potential A321's aren't all going to show up in 2020.
Most of Delta's retired 752's were parked at around 25 years (some older and some younger). By 2023 when all the NEOs are supposed to be delivered, half of Delta's 752's and half of 763er's will be about 25 years old. If you do the math that is almost a 1-to-1 replacement of half the fleet of 752/763 with A321neo. As for the remaining fleet of 752's and 763's? That's what the remaining 100 neo options are for :)
Last edited by airbazar on Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:08 pm

N717TW wrote:
The days of flying a 757 from ATL to MCO
They re introduced the 757 on ATL-MCO for majority of the flights.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:06 pm

777PHX wrote:
Tn55337 wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
You claimed that DL will order the MOM, a non-existent aircraft that wouldn't even see the light of day until the mid 2020's. By the time of launch, that'd put DL's 757's average age of 28-29, of which half of which are older (thus average). They can't wait for the MOM for 757 replacements. I assume if they need the range, they'll convert some of the 321 NEOs to the LR's.

Why do so many people on here act like 30 years old is a brick wall that aircraft cannot cross? FedEx has some birds that are 45+ years old. It is all about mantance.


Airplanes have finite lifespans dictated by cycles and hours regardless of how much maintenance you throw at them. Widebodies like the DC10/MD10 age slower because they typically fly longer stage lengths than narrowbodies. This, coupled with FX's far lower utililization of their aircraft vs a scheduled passenger airline, is why they're still flying 45 year old aircraft.


Indeed, and so the brick wall isn't calendar years as TN55337 contends but actually reaching 100,000 hours in DL's case for the 757. The revived 757s recently brought out of storage had about 80,000 on them. They got a heavy check and will be WFU when their next one comes due. Not bad for 199 seats of lift for 5-6 years.
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Tn55337
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:29 am

Spacepope wrote:

The revived 757s recently brought out of storage had about 80,000 on them. They got a heavy check and will be WFU when their next one comes due. Not bad for 199 seats of lift for 5-6 years.

That is great info. Does anyone know of a website that keeps track of cycles/hours on individual airframes?
 
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DL_Mech
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:09 pm

Tn55337 wrote:
That is great info. Does anyone know of a website that keeps track of cycles/hours on individual airframes?


https://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx

Leave the "N" off of the registration for US aircraft.
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airbazar
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:13 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Indeed, and so the brick wall isn't calendar years as TN55337 contends but actually reaching 100,000 hours in DL's case for the 757. The revived 757s recently brought out of storage had about 80,000 on them. They got a heavy check and will be WFU when their next one comes due. Not bad for 199 seats of lift for 5-6 years.

There are many other factors contributing to the decision to retire aircraft. It's not just hours.
Those aircraft that DL chose to bring back from storage, they were stored for a reason and one of the reason they brought them back was because oil prices dropped enough to the point where they could be operated at a profit again. At the end of the day an airline will fly the aircraft as long as they can make money with them, or they'll be parked, regardless of how old or how many cycles they have.
 
estorilm
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:23 pm

airbazar wrote:
True but no one is suggesting it will be anything but a sub-fleet of LR's.
As far as the pricing goes, no one know how much the airplane really costs so any pricing discussion here is irrelevant but I'd be willing that if DL is interested in a few LR's Airbus would have no problem giving them a good price considering they have 300 A321's on order.

Oh I totally agree! Some did imply that there would be some "continued flexibility" with the aircraft because it's based on the core 321NEO airframe, but my point was that it's more for production reasons than usage/deployment flexibility on the part of the airlines. Those specs and registration/certs cost the airline throughout the ownership period, even if they are very similar mechanically.

I'm sure they'll get a very good deal, but they'll still be more than a 321NEO (non-LR) obviously, and thus will be used on appropriate routes (probably exclusively.) That's all I meant. Some seemed to think you could do 100 NEO and 100 LR and just play around and use them as required. :lol:
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:38 pm

airbazar wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Indeed, and so the brick wall isn't calendar years as TN55337 contends but actually reaching 100,000 hours in DL's case for the 757. The revived 757s recently brought out of storage had about 80,000 on them. They got a heavy check and will be WFU when their next one comes due. Not bad for 199 seats of lift for 5-6 years.

There are many other factors contributing to the decision to retire aircraft. It's not just hours.
Those aircraft that DL chose to bring back from storage, they were stored for a reason and one of the reason they brought them back was because oil prices dropped enough to the point where they could be operated at a profit again. At the end of the day an airline will fly the aircraft as long as they can make money with them, or they'll be parked, regardless of how old or how many cycles they have.


Yes but these factors are not totally independent nor do they exist in a vacuum. The heavy check after 100,000 hours on a 757 is stupid expensive (like the heavy check at 85-ish thousand cycles on the 737NG) and are cost-based airframe killers based on utilization, not just oil prices or other factors.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will DL order the A321LR?

Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:07 pm

Spacepope wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
Indeed, and so the brick wall isn't calendar years as TN55337 contends but actually reaching 100,000 hours in DL's case for the 757. The revived 757s recently brought out of storage had about 80,000 on them. They got a heavy check and will be WFU when their next one comes due. Not bad for 199 seats of lift for 5-6 years.

There are many other factors contributing to the decision to retire aircraft. It's not just hours.
Those aircraft that DL chose to bring back from storage, they were stored for a reason and one of the reason they brought them back was because oil prices dropped enough to the point where they could be operated at a profit again. At the end of the day an airline will fly the aircraft as long as they can make money with them, or they'll be parked, regardless of how old or how many cycles they have.


Yes but these factors are not totally independent nor do they exist in a vacuum. The heavy check after 100,000 hours on a 757 is stupid expensive (like the heavy check at 85-ish thousand cycles on the 737NG) and are cost-based airframe killers based on utilization, not just oil prices or other factors.

I cannot imagine how much a heavy check on those DL 757s would cost.
N602DL has 88,829 hours and 44,971 cycles.
N603DL has 90,205 hours and 45,582 cycles
N604DL has 87,014 hours and 43,929 cycles

http://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx

I doubt the above are going to be pulled out.

But maintenance records show N605DL had recent work with 87,141 hours and 45,577 cycles. :wideeyed:


Are these really being reactivated? I cannot imagine the maintenance bill.
LOV is 150,000 hours and 75,000 cycles, so theoretically they could be used again, but versus an A321LR...

At some point, let old dogs lie. Anything beyond 60,000 hours or 30,000 cycles is getting one's monies worth out of an airframe!

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