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Strato2
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Re: AA ORDERS 47 787 FROM BOEING????

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:24 am

bigjku wrote:
The 8 is getting the 9’s tail.


That's only going to make the hole bigger for Boeing to dig themselves out. They truly need all these orders.
 
Strato2
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Re: AA ORDERS 47 787 FROM BOEING????

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:26 am

berari wrote:
KICT wrote:
Congrats to AA and Boeing.
The A330Neo is a bust. Airbus should cut their losses while ahead.


Is Boeing selling its aircraft at a loss to make sales?

:box: :praise: :stirthepot:


Well apparently Boeing made HA an offer Airbus would not be willing to compete on anymore. Don't know if that's the case here.
 
Arion640
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Re: AA ORDERS 47 787 FROM BOEING????

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:35 am

bigjku wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
A lot of long a.net threads are now officially null and void.

:rotfl:

I wish. ;)

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
How does this all factor in with the recent announcement of AA retiring their pre-9/11 738s?

And looking to buy used A319s? It sounds like sound rational fleet planning. Each fleet and even sub-fleet has different optimizations. AA isn't anti-airbus, they are making business decisions based on what their analysis, base on AA's assumptions, is best for them.

Arion640 wrote:
Airliners.net had said the -8 wouldn't get any further orders. Looks like that has changed.

It looks like something has changed. I'm not sure just the price. Did I miss a 788 PIP? Say getting the 789 tail?

Lightsaber


The 8 is getting the 9’s tail.

https://www.postandcourier.com/business ... 3d09e.html


I must admit I didn't know that. I suppose they had to do something with it.
 
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flee
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Re: AA ORDERS 47 787 FROM BOEING????

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:40 am

Strato2 wrote:
berari wrote:
KICT wrote:
Congrats to AA and Boeing.
The A330Neo is a bust. Airbus should cut their losses while ahead.

Is Boeing selling its aircraft at a loss to make sales?

:box: :praise: :stirthepot:

Well apparently Boeing made HA an offer Airbus would not be willing to compete on anymore. Don't know if that's the case here.

These orders won't show the full financial impact on Boeing until they are accounted for when the deliveries are made. What remains to be seen is whether the total direct production costs + deferred production costs will be less than sale price. But this is a good win for Boeing - taking advantage of Airbus' change of guard.
 
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cougar15
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:47 am

Congrats to Boeing and AA! Whilst I do very much like the 350, I think strategically this made absolute sense for AA and totally appreciate their reasoning.
Good to see the ´8 not being a dead as this platform leads us to believe.
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
raylee67
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:50 am

Makes sense. No surprise. AA does not need another long range type. The question is, can they just cancel the longstanding A350 order? Are there any penalties? Is AA really canceling the A350 order or is it switching the deposits to more A321? May be some -LR? I think AA is quite happy with the A321.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
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StudiodeKadent
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:52 am

Question... we know they're incorporating the -9's tail into the -8 now, so they're giving the 787-8 some improvements. What would the impacts be? We know it would decrease manufacturing costs for Boeing and parts/maintenance costs for the airlines (through increased commonality), but what is the fuel burn impact? range impact? CASM impact? Any chance it would make the 787-8 a substantially more attractive airliner?
 
marcelh
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:07 am

gatibosgru wrote:
mayohoo wrote:
I speculate that the recent success in 787 sales is due to combination of 1) projected improvements in manufacturing in the future resulting in lower costs but still a reasonable margin 2) projected bundled maintenance in the future as Boeing brings more work in house and away from third parties 3) increased numbers of slots due to ramp up to 14/m. Question: is 14/m capacity? Or can they go higher?


I'd add our current political state as another reason for the 787 success in sales recently.


Wasn't there a statement in the HA order that the recent tax changes in the US had a positive effect? Although I think that fleet simplification is way more important for AA. Saw recently an AA 767 at AMS, a 787 8/9 would be nice in the future!
 
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hotelbravo
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:39 am

The dollar has fallen quite a lot against the euro in the last year too which makes Boeing pricing more competitive.
 
pabloeing
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:28 am

Amazing order again for the B787 ¡¡¡¡
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:34 am

Congratulations AA and BCA. Glad to see deals between US Carriers and Boeing.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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flee
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:53 am

marcelh wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
mayohoo wrote:
I speculate that the recent success in 787 sales is due to combination of 1) projected improvements in manufacturing in the future resulting in lower costs but still a reasonable margin 2) projected bundled maintenance in the future as Boeing brings more work in house and away from third parties 3) increased numbers of slots due to ramp up to 14/m. Question: is 14/m capacity? Or can they go higher?

I'd add our current political state as another reason for the 787 success in sales recently.

Wasn't there a statement in the HA order that the recent tax changes in the US had a positive effect? Although I think that fleet simplification is way more important for AA. Saw recently an AA 767 at AMS, a 787 8/9 would be nice in the future!

Yes, A.Netters seem to think that fleet commonality is no longer such a big advantage these days. But AA is proving to us that it still weighs heavily on fleet purchasing decisions.
 
QXAS
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:37 am

It really does appear that AA is moving back toward the pre-merger 2 type widebody fleet. 89 787 aircraft. Wow. How many options are there that AA can take up?
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
Ruscoe
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Re: AA ORDERS 47 787 FROM BOEING????

Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:38 am

flee wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
berari wrote:
Is Boeing selling its aircraft at a loss to make sales?

:box: :praise: :stirthepot:

Well apparently Boeing made HA an offer Airbus would not be willing to compete on anymore. Don't know if that's the case here.

These orders won't show the full financial impact on Boeing until they are accounted for when the deliveries are made. What remains to be seen is whether the total direct production costs + deferred production costs will be less than sale price. But this is a good win for Boeing - taking advantage of Airbus' change of guard.


Boeing can now make good offers because they have been doing hard yards of cost reductions for years, and have a lot more planned. I doubt very much Boeing would make an offer below cost for 47 wide body sales for a type for which there is demand.

Boeings gross and net profit margins in the Commercial division are excellent.

IMO the reason the 787 was successful is because the 787 is a great aircraft at medium as well as long range. I think I (and others) have been looking at the 787 the wrong way. All the hype is around it's long range capability, and one tends to think of it as a long range aircraft with good medium range capability, when in fact, it could be looked at a as a medium range aircraft which also has great long range economics, and at varying pax loads, . I believe this new order where one aircraft type, can cover both medium and long haul, and can replace several different size aircraft, illustrates this.

Ruscoe
 
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qf789
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:46 am

QXAS wrote:
It really does appear that AA is moving back toward the pre-merger 2 type widebody fleet. 89 787 aircraft. Wow. How many options are there that AA can take up?


Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left.

For more refer to

http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/
Forum Moderator
 
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reidar76
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:05 am

This is excellent news and a great win for Boeing and its 787 Dreamliner. Airbus has recently been losing several order competitions between the 787 vs. the A330neo/A350. I have noticed that many posters are speculating whether Boeing is selling the 787 at a much lower price now, or if the 787 suddenly is a much better aircraft than the A330neo or A350.

I have noticed that in each of the recent victories for the 787, the airlines have opted for GE engines on the 787, even if this also means cancellation fees to RR. I therefore think that the recent victories is more a battle between GE and RR, and not so much between Boeing and Airbus. I think it is GE that is offering very good deals at a time when RR is having financial difficulties and is facing the uncertainties of BREXIT. The good deals from GE makes the 787 highly competitive against the A330neo/A350, and there is not much Airbus can do about that.

Also notice that Airbus have sold more A330ceo (which have three engine choices) than A330neo in the last few years. It seems like RR is asking to much for the neo and xwb engines. By the way, high engine acquisition and maintenance cost for RR engines was a significant reason for the poor sales performance of the A340.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:06 am

flee wrote:
Yes, A.Netters seem to think that fleet commonality is no longer such a big advantage these days. But AA is proving to us that it still weighs heavily on fleet purchasing decisions.


I think in an age where the world's largest single international airline only operates 2 different aircraft families (EK, which is all B777 and A380), the benefits of commonality are becoming extremely obvious. Almost every airline is engaging in fleet simplification of some kind. Domestic airlines like Southwest in the US, international airlines like EK, etc, are all showing that the benefits of commonality are quite substantial to say the least.

I think the fleet simplification trend will continue across the world. Part of this is how the 787 and A350 are making so many more routes feasible (which of course contributes to network externalities for hub carriers). Part of this is the constant drive to make things modular, standardized and east to maintain.
 
fun2fly
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:31 am

What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's. Only AA and UA in the US know the true performance of the 788. Perhaps with that data and the PIP/TAIL changes on the 788, along with good pricing and fleet commonality, it is a good TATL aircraft. No one here knows the truth, but I'd sure like to know the #'s.

I think that AA will add to it's 89 x 787 order with some 78J's at the right time to replace a portion of the 772's. Amazing they could have 100+ units.
 
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flee
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:34 am

reidar76 wrote:
This is excellent news and a great win for Boeing and its 787 Dreamliner. Airbus has recently been losing several order competitions between the 787 vs. the A330neo/A350. I have noticed that many posters are speculating whether Boeing is selling the 787 at a much lower price now, or if the 787 suddenly is a much better aircraft than the A330neo or A350.

I have noticed that in each of the recent victories for the 787, the airlines have opted for GE engines on the 787, even if this also means cancellation fees to RR. I therefore think that the recent victories is more a battle between GE and RR, and not so much between Boeing and Airbus. I think it is GE that is offering very good deals at a time when RR is having financial difficulties and is facing the uncertainties of BREXIT. The good deals from GE makes the 787 highly competitive against the A330neo/A350, and there is not much Airbus can do about that.

Also notice that Airbus have sold more A330ceo (which have three engine choices) than A330neo in the last few years. It seems like RR is asking to much for the neo and xwb engines. By the way, high engine acquisition and maintenance cost for RR engines was a significant reason for the poor sales performance of the A340.

I think the increase in production rate also played a part as more delivery slots in the near term have become available. So, it isn't such a long wait before receiving your aircraft anymore.
 
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seahawk
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:36 am

Fantastic news for AA and Boeing. Huge victory for Boeing. 2018 is a fantastic year for the Dreamliner. Hopefully Air Asia will follow soon. .
 
MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:48 am

raylee67 wrote:
Makes sense. No surprise. AA does not need another long range type. The question is, can they just cancel the longstanding A350 order? Are there any penalties? Is AA really canceling the A350 order or is it switching the deposits to more A321? May be some -LR? I think AA is quite happy with the A321.


AA announced the cancellation of the A350 order - it can't be any more clear than that. If there are financial penalties material to AA's financial condition (maybe $100+ million?) they will be disclosed in a SEC filing.

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/sec-filings
 
superjeff
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:52 am

This morning it is all over the news. Apparently it is for real.
 
kaitak
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:57 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Makes sense. No surprise. AA does not need another long range type. The question is, can they just cancel the longstanding A350 order? Are there any penalties? Is AA really canceling the A350 order or is it switching the deposits to more A321? May be some -LR? I think AA is quite happy with the A321.


AA announced the cancellation of the A350 order - it can't be any more clear than that. If there are financial penalties material to AA's financial condition (maybe $100+ million?) they will be disclosed in a SEC filing.

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/sec-filings


Would they not be able to convert some of the A350 orders to A321s (or even A321NeoLRs, to allow them to replace the 757s), so as not to lose the deposits?
 
marcelh
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:01 pm

fun2fly wrote:
What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's. Only AA and UA in the US know the true performance of the 788. Perhaps with that data and the PIP/TAIL changes on the 788, along with good pricing and fleet commonality, it is a good TATL aircraft. No one here knows the truth, but I'd sure like to know the #'s.

:checkmark:

IMO here on A.net there is too much focus on the maximum possible range of aircraft, instead of the real world numbers. A fleet of 788, 789 and possibly 78J gives maximum flexibility, also on shorter routes (TATL). Also with the large order for the 788, AA shows us that the MoM isn't the game changer some people here think it is.
 
lifecomm
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:03 pm

fun2fly wrote:
What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's. Only AA and UA in the US know the true performance of the 788. Perhaps with that data and the PIP/TAIL changes on the 788, along with good pricing and fleet commonality, it is a good TATL aircraft. No one here knows the truth, but I'd sure like to know the #'s.

I think that AA will add to it's 89 x 787 order with some 78J's at the right time to replace a portion of the 772's. Amazing they could have 100+ units.

This is exactly right. Boeing has tons of real life data, therefore I think good performance upgrades are coming with many more orders for the 788. AA will obviously consider 78Js as a natural option when the time comes.
 
bigjku
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:08 pm

marcelh wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's. Only AA and UA in the US know the true performance of the 788. Perhaps with that data and the PIP/TAIL changes on the 788, along with good pricing and fleet commonality, it is a good TATL aircraft. No one here knows the truth, but I'd sure like to know the #'s.

:checkmark:

IMO here on A.net there is too much focus on the maximum possible range of aircraft, instead of the real world numbers. A fleet of 788, 789 and possibly 78J gives maximum flexibility, also on shorter routes (TATL). Also with the large order for the 788, AA shows us that the MoM isn't the game changer some people here think it is.


I expect American to be a launch customer for that program with a substantial order in England this summer.
 
vfw614
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:11 pm

So what is the offset-deal? Unless Boeing pays for the lost Airbus deposits, it would be crazy not to cut a deal with Airbus in which the A350 order is replaced with a sizeable narrowbody order for A32Xs.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:11 pm

fun2fly wrote:
What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's.


Wasn't the 788 always meant to be a 767-300ER replacement?

I mean sure, it doesn't replace a non-ER 767-300 but the ER versions seem perfectly able to be replaced with a 787-8. The A330-200 replaced 763ERs at some airlines, and the 788 has better economics than the A330-200 so it makes sense to use 787-8s as an A330-200 replacement. Lighter jet with more range and only marginally lower capacity.
 
fcogafa
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:29 pm

qf789 wrote:
Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left.

For more refer to
http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/

-------------------------

From Flightglobal:

Boeing says the order today is a new deal from American and not an exercise of the carrier's options for 58 787s.
 
bigjku
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:29 pm

vfw614 wrote:
So what is the offset-deal? Unless Boeing pays for the lost Airbus deposits, it would be crazy not to cut a deal with Airbus in which the A350 order is replaced with a sizeable narrowbody order for A32Xs.


People should really think this through. American has 400 A320 orders of various types and as a big customer likely has tons of delivery flexibility. First they don’t need more. Second it doesn’t make sense for Airbus to piss them off.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:33 pm

vfw614 wrote:
So what is the offset-deal? Unless Boeing pays for the lost Airbus deposits, it would be crazy not to cut a deal with Airbus in which the A350 order is replaced with a sizeable narrowbody order for A32Xs.


But they already have a ton of A320s on order, plus a bunch of 737s they deferred because they have too much narrowbody capacity coming in.

What good does it do to AA to complicate that even further with yet more narrowbodies they don’t need?

What good does it do Airbus to make a deal for a line that is easily sold out, when the airline in question already has a ton of planes on order, when you could just pocket whatever deposits paid as a consolation prize?

Folks on here make it sound like “cutting a deal” or converting an order is as simple as just saying so.

These are complex contracts with lots of factors going into each side deciding what to about them. It has been mentioned elsewhere on here that both Boeing and Airbus are getting more strict about “model hopping” with their orders, and with a new sales guy in charge at Airbus, they seem to be less shy about letting dead orders go rather than keeping them in a perpetual state of deferment.

Boeing doesn’t have to “pay” for anything, per se, either. All they need is for the total cost of the order (if there were any Airbus cancellation penalties, that would be included as a cost to the Boeing order), plus expected total future operating cost of the planes (which takes into account fleet commonality benefits) to be less than the total future cost (remaining payments to be made, plus future operating costs of another fleet type) of an Airbus order. If the calculated net present value of the sum of all those costs for a Boeing order is less than the net present value of the sum of any non-sunk costs for an Airbus order, then AA will go with Boeing.

Whatever deposits they paid could be forfeited, and it sounds like a lot of money, but in the grand scheme of operating 47 widebodies for 25 years, it’s really not.
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:33 pm

I find it more likely the tail from the 78J is used on these upcoming -8. The -J dropped the active laminar flow system as the weight/complexity/costs do not offset the gains, especially on shorter routes.

I read this order as a sign the 797/NMA is going to be on the shorter end of the range/payload estimates discussed. Heavy freight is a key piece of South American markets and is the main reason many of the northern SA routes are still on 767’s instead of 738/757/321’s. Several key markets are also high elevation. The 788’s and 789’s will be heavy-lifting workhorses for this very important geomarket for them. It also provides superb flexibity for fleet routing being able to bridge from long and thin TPAC to TATL to SA
 
marcelh
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:42 pm

bigjku wrote:
marcelh wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's. Only AA and UA in the US know the true performance of the 788. Perhaps with that data and the PIP/TAIL changes on the 788, along with good pricing and fleet commonality, it is a good TATL aircraft. No one here knows the truth, but I'd sure like to know the #'s.

:checkmark:

IMO here on A.net there is too much focus on the maximum possible range of aircraft, instead of the real world numbers. A fleet of 788, 789 and possibly 78J gives maximum flexibility, also on shorter routes (TATL). Also with the large order for the 788, AA shows us that the MoM isn't the game changer some people here think it is.


I expect American to be a launch customer for that program with a substantial order in England this summer.


O, no doubt they will and it fit a part of their network as a glove. I will fulfill a need of some airlines but I don't think it is the game changer everybody wants/needs.
 
WingsOfLove
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:44 pm

QXAS wrote:
AA is moving back toward the pre-merger 2 type widebody fleet


My guess, eventually AA will be down to 788 / 789, possibly a few 787-10 should First Class survive. A super sized 1 type widebody fleet for max flexibility and lowest cost.

Great way to go AA and congrats to Boeing for building an exceptional airplane by embracing global manufacturing.
 
marcelh
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:45 pm

WingsOfLove wrote:
.....congrats to Boeing for building an exceptional airplane by embracing global manufacturing.

Wasn't the global outsourcing the main reason for all the problems?
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:46 pm

seabosdca wrote:
This also looks like AA is betting against the 797. If the bet doesn't work out, and a decade down the road AA is trying to use 788s to compete with Delta 797s on TATL routes, that's going to hurt.


As said - we'll see. There's nothing that would preclude AA from operating another the 797 down the road if/when it is launched, built and enters service.

That said, I'm not so sure that AA flying these 788s up against a competitor's hypothetical 797s is necessarily going to be quite as "hurtful" as suggested. Sure, the 797 - as it's reportedly shaping up to exist - would ostensibly be of a more "optimized" design (weight, range, payload, etc.) for many Atlantic sectors than a 788. But that said, if these 788s AA is buying were priced attractively - which, I think we can all safely assume, they were - that lower capital/financing cost amortized over the life of these aircraft will likely make them fairly financially competitive. And all of that is before even counting the economies of scale and commonality from operating a fleet that by that time will be approaching 100 787s - that, too, almost certainly considerably boosts the competitiveness of, and business case for, the 788.

wjcandee wrote:
As someone who has been following the 767 conversion market, this is great news. A good number of age-appropriate, well-maintained 767s will continue to drop out of AA's fleet. The last 8 or so 767 conversions by Cargo Aircraft Management for the Amazon Prime Air account and for leasing to other carriers worldwide have been of AA retired 767s. The AA stuff that's still in the desert (other than a few recent retirees that CAM has already locked up) is probably too long in the tooth to think about converting, but the ones that will be replaced by 787s are of workable age and cycles. So as the demand for these mid-sized freighters picks up, there should be a good potential stream of new-build freighters (for folks like FedEx and UPS) and conversions (for folks who aren't going to put the hours on them that would tilt the scales towards new-build).


Yep. Similar to AA's (likely) logical calculus on some of the older 738s, the conversion demand for some of these 763 frames almost certainly factored into the decision. AA has eight 767s of 2003 vintage - it wouldn't surprise me if AA is already getting expressions of interest for those jets.

wenders825 wrote:
if AA will be putting 788s on old 767 routes, that would be a *massive* product improvement on PHL-AMS/BUD/LIS/PRG/ZRH, MIA-LIM/MVD/COR and routes like that. and maybe even JFK-CDG/MAD can finally get something decent!


The 788 will, indeed, be a massive product improvement over the 767. As stated publicly, AA believed that to keep its 767s flying for years longer (perhaps to stretch them until they could be replaced with something else, like a 797), the airline would have had to make an investment of $15M in upgrades to each airplane. The 788, obviously, already has modern cabins, including a very competitive premium cabin, at delivery. As for JFK-CDG/MAD, my personal expectation remains that both of these routes are more likely to switch to the 777 rather than the 787.

ATLFlyer1234 wrote:
All this means is that American will continue to offer a worst-in-class economy class experience for decades to come. The extra seating width on the A350 and A330 makes a huge difference on long flights.


Let's see how much of a yield premium Delta is able to generate from the extra inch of seat width. My guess? Zero. And in the pointy end of the plane, where airlines make much of their money on longhaul flights, AA's premium cabins on the 787 - including J and the apparently quite popular PE - are quite competitive with anything offered by Delta, United, and many major foreign competitors. I also like how, unlike Delta, AA is still keeping extra-legroom rows (MCE) on all of its widebodies once they get PE. With all the new and upgraded J cabins across its widebody fleet, and the rapid PE deployment, the 763 was the extreme outlier in AA's longhaul fleet. With the 763 soon to be gone, AA will have a solid longhaul hard product offering - especially in premium cabins.

fun2fly wrote:
What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy with this order to replace all 763's. Only AA and UA in the US know the true performance of the 788. Perhaps with that data and the PIP/TAIL changes on the 788, along with good pricing and fleet commonality, it is a good TATL aircraft.


Indeed. The 788 is configured to carry almost the same number of people as AA's 763s and is highly fuel efficient - this is not debatable. But that fuel efficiency only starts to pay for itself on longer sectors given the weight and payload optimization of the 788's design, and it's (logical) relatively higher capital cost as compared to older models. But the key is that last part: at the right capital cost, an airline like AA could theoretically become indifferent to the airline's weight and payload optimization for longer missions, and given it's size that wouldn't dump too much capacity into existing 763 markets, suddenly the 788 could become quite a competitive 763 replacement for 8-10ish hour Europe and South America flights.

And again, that's before even considering the efficiency and operational flexibility that comes with economies of scale, and having nearly 100 of these jets. That's where the example of ORD is instructive - while the 788 might not ostensibly have been ideally-suited for some of those ORD-Europe missions, there was a substantial benefit to isolating a fleet type in one place so that in the case of a mechanical or other delay, for instance, aircraft and crew could swap freely, and so that aircraft could be routed and scheduled more optimally (i.e., the inbound PVG can easily turn to the departing CDG becuase they're the same aircraft type, etc.).
Last edited by commavia on Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1892
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:49 pm

seahawk wrote:
Hopefully Air Asia will follow soon.


Hopefully, they won't.
Proudly avoiding 737 MAX since 18.11.2020.
 
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Polot
Posts: 11072
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:56 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Hopefully Air Asia will follow soon.


Hopefully, they won't.

If comfort truly is your concern you should be hoping AirAsia dumps the A330neo for the 787 ‘crampliner’. Air Asia’s A330s make the 787 feel like a luxuryliner.
 
osupoke07
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:39 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:00 pm

fcogafa wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left.

For more refer to
http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/

-------------------------

From Flightglobal:

Boeing says the order today is a new deal from American and not an exercise of the carrier's options for 58 787s.


So AA now has 86 options (original 58 + the new 28)? That seems high given that with this order, they only have 46 planes that will eventually need replacing.

15 A332
31 B772 (25 789 ordered - 9 for all A333, 16 of the 47 772)
46

I imagine they'll bring in more frames than go out for expansion, but I can't imagine the 787 covering any of the 77W routes. I think the All Things 787 conclusion is closer to reality

All Things 787 wrote:
While this is a firm order what is unclear is if this is an exercise of 58 787 options that American Airlines held as part of their original order. Boeing will only confirm that the new order is firm and booked. If the two orders were taken as separate then it would mean that American Airlines order (firm + options) 175 787s which doesn't seem realistic even for an airline as large as American. A more reasonable conclusion is that the new order is a partial exercise of the 58 options plus adding more options for future replacement and growth.
Last edited by osupoke07 on Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MD82, MD83, MD88, B717, B732, B733, B735, B737, B738, B739, B752, B763, B77W, CR2, CR7, CR9, A320, A321
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:04 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Hopefully Air Asia will follow soon.


Hopefully, they won't.


They will if they are smart. The 787-10 is perfect for the huge majority of their routes and would fit their model of offering the lowest cost per seat aircraft they can. Then they can fly the 9 for geographic expansion to Europe and to open new routes. The A339neo doesn’t offer them that flexibility and unless it gets more orders is likely to have higher financing cost to boot.

They could look at A350’s at 10 wide I suppose but they may run up against an exit limit problem.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11072
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:04 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left.

For more refer to
http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/

-------------------------

From Flightglobal:

Boeing says the order today is a new deal from American and not an exercise of the carrier's options for 58 787s.


So AA now has 86 options (original 58 + the new 28)? That seems high given that with this order, they only have 46 planes that will eventually need replacing.

15 A332
31 B772 (25 789 ordered - 9 for all A333, 16 of the 47 772)
46

I imagine they'll bring in more frames than go out for expansion, but I can't imagine the 787 covering any of the 77W routes. I think the All Things 787 conclusion is closer to reality

All Things 787 wrote:
While this is a firm order what is unclear is if this is an exercise of 58 787 options that American Airlines held as part of their original order. Boeing will only confirm that the new order is firm and booked. If the two orders were taken as separate then it would mean that American Airlines order (firm + options) 175 787s which doesn't seem realistic even for an airline as large as American. A more reasonable conclusion is that the new order is a partial exercise of the 58 options plus adding more options for future replacement and growth.

This order might be a new order an not a conversion, but that doesn’t mean the old options are still in effect. AA/Boeing might have negotiated this order and it’s options to replace the options of the old order.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:06 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left.

For more refer to
http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/

-------------------------

From Flightglobal:

Boeing says the order today is a new deal from American and not an exercise of the carrier's options for 58 787s.


So AA now has 86 options (original 58 + the new 28)? That seems high given that with this order, they only have 46 planes that will eventually need replacing.

15 A332
31 B772 (25 789 ordered - 9 for all A333, 16 of the 47 772)
46

I imagine they'll bring in more frames than go out for expansion, but I can't imagine the 787 covering any of the 77W routes. I think the All Things 787 conclusion is closer to reality

All Things 787 wrote:
While this is a firm order what is unclear is if this is an exercise of 58 787 options that American Airlines held as part of their original order. Boeing will only confirm that the new order is firm and booked. If the two orders were taken as separate then it would mean that American Airlines order (firm + options) 175 787s which doesn't seem realistic even for an airline as large as American. A more reasonable conclusion is that the new order is a partial exercise of the 58 options plus adding more options for future replacement and growth.


I would guess original options won’t be taken up. I think the price paradigm has shifted enough that those contracts simply aren’t relevant anymore.
 
fpetrutiu
Posts: 746
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 11:28 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:07 pm

It is now on CNN as well. CNN clearly states American cancels all A350's it had on order.
Florin
Orlando, FL
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1791
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:13 pm

bigjku wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
So what is the offset-deal? Unless Boeing pays for the lost Airbus deposits, it would be crazy not to cut a deal with Airbus in which the A350 order is replaced with a sizeable narrowbody order for A32Xs.


People should really think this through. American has 400 A320 orders of various types and as a big customer likely has tons of delivery flexibility. First they don’t need more. Second it doesn’t make sense for Airbus to piss them off.

Not to mention this order started as an original A350 order (as did HA). I imagine the terms were pretty favorable.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4913
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:34 pm

If true Boeing really gave some huge concessions to pull this off. For Boeing selling at cost almost seems worth it to kill the 350 no? Keep AA with Boeing more and this really hurts the 350 program if true.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1791
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:37 pm

flee wrote:
marcelh wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
I'd add our current political state as another reason for the 787 success in sales recently.

Wasn't there a statement in the HA order that the recent tax changes in the US had a positive effect? Although I think that fleet simplification is way more important for AA. Saw recently an AA 767 at AMS, a 787 8/9 would be nice in the future!

Yes, A.Netters seem to think that fleet commonality is no longer such a big advantage these days. But AA is proving to us that it still weighs heavily on fleet purchasing decisions.

I wouldn't go too overboard with this. Obviously it factors in to some extent, but AA has been and will continue to run four wide body types for quite some time (although this does keep them from running five). I am willing to bet AA never gets down to two wide body types that some have mentioned on here.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
brindabella
Posts: 645
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:42 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Wow. "The reports of the 788's death have been greatly exaggerated."

This also looks like AA is betting against the 797. If the bet doesn't work out, and a decade down the road AA is trying to use 788s to compete with Delta 797s on TATL routes, that's going to hurt.

I wonder if this is going to result in further improvements to the 788, to streamline production and reduce production cost compared to the 789, while retaining the 788's lighter gear and structure?


Well said.

About time. Dopey to create 788 then dump it.

:irked:

cheers
Billy
 
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Boeing778X
Posts: 3268
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Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:53 pm

fcogafa wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left.

For more refer to
http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/

-------------------------

From Flightglobal:

Boeing says the order today is a new deal from American and not an exercise of the carrier's options for 58 787s.


Those are your 77E replacements right there!

Several Airbus fans are trying to pull a "so there's a chance for the A350 still" attitude.

There will be NO A350s at AA. 787-10 is a definite possibility.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
brindabella
Posts: 645
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:59 pm

heavymetal wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
heavymetal wrote:


IMO, the 797 is dead at AA for two reasons:

- the overwhelming emphasis in the press release about simplifying the fleet, at least 4 separate references. Clearly AA sees some value to go simpler, so why bother re-introducing that complication with another family that has 2 subfleets.

- the A321neo orderbook. as theorized, it looks like the 797 would only have 500-1000nm more range than the A321LR, and it appears Airbus is looking at further improvements to payload and/or range for the A321neo. Inside of the A321neo's range capability, the A321neo will have superior economics to a twin-aisle 797; cheaper pilots, lower airport handling and navigation fees, lower maintenance costs (especially if 797 engine is not new technology), and assumed lower cost of ownership. The question for AA is exactly how many markets out there are worth the extra 500-1000nm range, that are profitable enough to offset the cost of fleet complication or complexity vs. simply flying those routes with the 787-8's. The 797 would be the better airplane for those missions and the 787-8 would be suboptimal, but for the airline to save on having separate crews, training, maintenance and parts, scheduling and operational flexibility, etc., I imagine it will be better to just fly the 787-8 on those select few routes.


I love all the experts on an airplane model that hasn’t even been defined by the manufacturer; hasn’t been launched; and won’t enter into service for 7 years. So you are sure the A321LR will have better economics than the 797?


Given Leeham's strong credibility when breaking news stories before hitting the public wires, especially in the last 2-3 years, I'm inclined to believe them when they claim the 797 is a 7-abreast, 2x3x2, ovoid design with the LEAP engines being the baseline. They clearly have good sources in the industry. And when their analysis suggests that a 797 with refined LEAP engines will have similar fuel burn per seat, I again give them the benefit of the doubt. Similar fuel burn per seat for a larger aircraft won't cut it - the extra seats of the bigger aircraft will be sold at a discount relative to the smaller aircraft, so the cost per seat needs to be lower. Couple this with Leeham acknowledging that the aircraft will have higher crew costs, higher airport and navigation fees, and higher maintenance costs, and you're looking at something with similar Cash CASM, which again, won't cut it. The Cash CASM must be better due to the higher capacity. Add in the layer that the sales price must be low enough in order to make, or keep, the overall CASM of the airplane below the A321neo / A321LR, and it starts to look difficult. Not impossible, nothing is impossible - but it's a very fine thread that they are trying to needle.

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/15/boein ... l-stretch/

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/26/boein ... ch-part-2/

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/22/ge-cf ... ng-on-nma/


:sarcastic:

Well, we will see not?

Either:

1) you have sensational insight and Boeing is pursuing a mad path to destruction or
2) you have no idea what you are talking about.

cheers
Billy
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 442
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:59 pm

Boeing778X wrote:

There will be NO A350s at AA. 787-10 is a definite possibility.


I agree 787-10s are possible, even quite likely, but no A350s? What about in 10 years when they want 777-300ER replacements? The 777-8 is far too powerful for the US carriers to want (unless they want to fly to like... Perth, Mauritius or India) and the 777-9 arguably is too big (its a very nice jet, just a very big jet at the same time). I'd think if Airbus has any 'in' with AA, its with A350-1000s as the ultimate 777-300ER replacement. US carriers are multi-hub operations that prize flexibility, great CASM and risk-aversion-when-discussing-capacity-changes. All of those factors lead to A350-1000s as a 777-300ER replacement.

Which isn't to say the 777-9 is bad. Its not bad. Its a very nice and sexy jet. Just arguably not the best fit for AA's network.
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