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PSA1978
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Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:39 pm

Since AA has elected to replace the 763 with 788, doesn't that make it likely that United will do the same? We know that factory new 763's seems to be off the table leaving 788 as the Boeing offering. The fact that AA has concluded a 788 makes sense, makes it seem highly likely that at least some will be ordered for the same reasons that American did. Perhaps United can wait a bit longer for more details on 797 than American can?
Last edited by PSA1978 on Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:58 pm

It does make sense, I think in prior years Boeing wasn't... willing to price accordingly. But only for the oldest 763.

Many others, let us look to the 797 or maybe some even with the A321LR.
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flyguy84
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:08 pm

Unlikely. They’ve been undergoing their endless “fleet review” for some time now. Most likely they’re holding out for the MOM which isn’t going to be available until who knows when. Their 767s reliability is abysmal and needs to be replaced sooner than later.
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Stitch
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:08 pm

UA has been said to be very interested in NMA / MoM and were also said to have been looking at new-build 767-300ERs as interim lift until NMA was available. So assuming NMA does become a thing in the near future and UA is still interested in it when it does, that could lessen the interest in additional 787-8s. Then again, there may be some current 767-300ER and 767-400ER missions where the 787-8 is the better fit even if NMA launches and UA orders some.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:19 pm

Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight. I can't see UA waiting till Boeing has its MOM ready to replace its 763's. If Boeing can't give UA a good deal on some 787-8s, perhaps Airbus could give them a good deal on some A330-800's.
 
flyguy84
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:20 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight. I can't see UA waiting till Boeing has its MOM ready to replace its 763's. If Boeing can't give UA a good deal on some 778's, perhaps Airbus could give them a good deal on some A330-800's.

The 330-800 is a likely scenario. Even more so now that Hawaiian cancelled their order. Airbus would likely give UA a killer deal on some.
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seahawk
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:24 pm

The recent success of the 788 puts the idea of a MoM in a different light. If they can win with the 788, there is no pressing need to invest in a new program.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:25 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight. I can't see UA waiting till Boeing has its MOM ready to replace its 763's. If Boeing can't give UA a good deal on some 778's, perhaps Airbus could give them a good deal on some A330-800's.

The 330-800 is a likely scenario. Even more so now that Hawaiian cancelled their order. Airbus would likely give UA a killer deal on some.


Except that they likely would have given AA the same killer deal, but lost. That’s not to say that UAs outcome can’t be different, but it could just be that the US market right now has some financial advantages for the 787/Boeing.
-Dave


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DeSpringbokke
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:39 pm

To replace the oldest 21 767-300ERs, if the competition is between the 787-8 and the A330-800neo, the 787-8 wins hands down. However, I don't believe UA will order additional 787-8s to replace the 21 oldest 767-300ERs. Unlike many here, I do believe they will order the 797 to replace their entire 767-300ER fleet and partially the 757 fleet. The 21 oldest 767-300ERs are in rough shape, however, they are receiving the most extensive maintenance the aircraft could receive while undergoing Polaris modifications. Seven of the 21 already received this maintenance when they were converted to the B/E diamond configuration before Polaris was launched. This explains why it is taking so long for interior modifications. However, I do believe the Polaris modifications will be finished by year's end.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:41 pm

seahawk wrote:
The recent success of the 788 puts the idea of a MoM in a different light. If they can win with the 788, there is no pressing need to invest in a new program.

The key word is "If".

AA has a Parker-driven mandate to simplify the fleet. I don't think that's the general industry wide trend.

For example, DL will have A321, A330, A330neo, A350, B757, B767, B787 and B777 in the fleet at the same time, and presumably be adding 797 too.

Personally I think AA/Parker is over-simplifying and may be shoving the round 788 into a square hole just because they are so focused on having less types in the fleet.
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SFOtoORD
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:42 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight. I can't see UA waiting till Boeing has its MOM ready to replace its 763's. If Boeing can't give UA a good deal on some 778's, perhaps Airbus could give them a good deal on some A330-800's.

The 330-800 is a likely scenario. Even more so now that Hawaiian cancelled their order. Airbus would likely give UA a killer deal on some.


The capabilities of the A338 and 788 are pretty similar in that they are both pretty long range aircraft. As an early 788 customer UA likely has access to decent pricing. I personally think the A338 doesn’t offer them much unless they get dirt cheap pricing. If UA got a few addl 788s Plus some used 763s it could tide them over to the MoM.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:44 pm

The 767-300 I was on LHR-EWR back in November was well worn, had older and smaller screen IFE systems (the 767-400 I took EWR-LHR was much nicer), They do need to be replaced as getting long in age, likely 20+ years old, as others noted have declining dispatch reliability and on an important TATL route should have better a/c's with more up to date interiors. I am quite sure the -300's might be of value to freighter conversions.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:44 pm

The 788 doesn't make a hood replacement for the 763, it's closer in performance to the 77E. UA is planning to fly the 763 until the wings fall off, and by then the MoM will be a thing. To have too many 788s doing EWR/IAD-Europe will be underutilization of the aircraft.
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Stitch
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:45 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8?


Boeing has done just that and is now going to use the same aft fuselage (Sections 47/48) on the 787-8 and they do on the 787-9 and 787-10.


TWA772LR wrote:
The 788 doesn't make a hood replacement for the 763, it's closer in performance to the 77E.


The 787-9 is more the 777-200ER replacement (at least at 9-abreast Economy) as they have almost identical cabin floor areas.

In terms of seating, the 787-8 seats 219 in a UA configuration compared to the 214 seats of a 767-300ER. The 787-8 is configured in a more premium-heavy configuration with an additional 6 Business Class and 21 Premium Economy seats and less Economy seats, but that can be adjusted and once the 787 fleet gets the new Polaris Seat, that will have an impact on capacity, as well.
Last edited by Stitch on Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:51 pm

seahawk wrote:
The recent success of the 788 puts the idea of a MoM in a different light. If they can win with the 788, there is no pressing need to invest in a new program.


Or it could be that the 797 doesn't encroach on the 788's market as much as people speculated it might. MoM is a very big gap to fill, and there was no way that the 797 was ever going to fill it all by itself.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:53 pm

Stitch wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8?


Boeing has done just that and is now going to use the same aft fuselage (Sections 47/48) on the 787-8 and they do on the 787-9 and 787-10.


I missed that. Was that announced yesterday?
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:56 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Except that they likely would have given AA the same killer deal, but lost./Boeing.


For AA only the -9 was being considered, not the -8, don't make up facts.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:18 pm

Jayafe wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Except that they likely would have given AA the same killer deal, but lost./Boeing.


For AA only the -9 was being considered, not the -8, don't make up facts.

I don’t know why, when half of AA’s new order was for the 788, and when AA already operates 15 relatively new A332s, you think Airbus wasn’t pitching the -800 to AA. If they didn’t maybe they should have? I have more confidence in Airbus’s sales team then you appear to have.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:35 pm

Stitch wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8?


Boeing has done just that and is now going to use the same aft fuselage (Sections 47/48) on the 787-8 and they do on the 787-9 and 787-10.


TWA772LR wrote:
The 788 doesn't make a hood replacement for the 763, it's closer in performance to the 77E.


The 787-9 is more the 777-200ER replacement (at least at 9-abreast Economy) as they have almost identical cabin floor areas.

In terms of seating, the 787-8 seats 219 in a UA configuration compared to the 214 seats of a 767-300ER. The 787-8 is configured in a more premium-heavy configuration with an additional 6 Business Class and 21 Premium Economy seats and less Economy seats, but that can be adjusted and once the 787 fleet gets the new Polaris Seat, that will have an impact on capacity, as well.


I’m guessing he means in regards to performance rather than seating capacity.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:45 pm

Jayafe wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Except that they likely would have given AA the same killer deal, but lost./Boeing.


For AA only the -9 was being considered, not the -8, don't make up facts.


Airbus pitched an A338/A339 combo to AA to replace the 763s and oldest 772s. Boeing won with their 788/789 combo.
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Stitch
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:46 pm

Armodeen wrote:
I’m guessing he means in regards to performance rather than seating capacity.


Yes, the 787-8 will carry a similar payload over 1000nm farther than a 767-300ER, but a 777-200ER will carry that payload over 1000nm farther than the 787-8 (so 2000nm farther than the 767).
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:50 pm

PSA1978 wrote:
Since AA has elected to replace the 763 with 788, doesn't that make it likely that United will do the same?


I don't see how AA's action makes it any more right for UA. The transaction might indicate Boeing is pricing 788s more aggressively. Hawaiian's move might reflect that, too. Against UA's choice, we have AA taking up a lot of early delivery slots.
 
PSA1978
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:03 pm

The oldest 763 will be nearly 35 years old when the 797 is speculated to arrive in 2025. Assuming United is a very likely customer for the 797 we have the following options:
1. Keep until the 797 arrives,
2. replace with 788
3. replace with A338
4. replace with newer used 763's

Are there other options?

I'm leaning towards at least some of 21 will be replaced with 788's. Since 14 of the old ones are getting the Polaris upgrade I suppose there is no rush. As others have pointed out, the 788 makes a reasonable place holder until the 797 arrives. They can then be used elsewhere as the 764 needs replacement soon after, a situation that AA did not face. I just dont see that the A338 has a chance without very low pricing. Perhaps United makes a splash with a 787/797 order.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:22 pm

Continental767 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Except that they likely would have given AA the same killer deal, but lost./Boeing.


For AA only the -9 was being considered, not the -8, don't make up facts.


Airbus pitched an A338/A339 combo to AA to replace the 763s and oldest 772s. Boeing won with their 788/789 combo.


This is from the other thread:

LAXintl wrote:
Per Derek Kerr (AA CFO) employee PR interview the A350 order would have been gone regardless. While a good airplane, it simply did not make sense to absorb another fleet type.

AA tasked manufacturers to come up with a strategy that would both cover 763 replacements and outstanding A350 order. Airbus came back with an A338-A339 offering while Boeing came up with a 788-789 offer
.

I think you are a little wound up right now. FWIW.
Last edited by PlanesNTrains on Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:42 pm

Stitch wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8?


Boeing has done just that and is now going to use the same aft fuselage (Sections 47/48) on the 787-8 and they do on the 787-9 and 787-10.


TWA772LR wrote:
The 788 doesn't make a hood replacement for the 763, it's closer in performance to the 77E.


The 787-9 is more the 777-200ER replacement (at least at 9-abreast Economy) as they have almost identical cabin floor areas.

In terms of seating, the 787-8 seats 219 in a UA configuration compared to the 214 seats of a 767-300ER. The 787-8 is configured in a more premium-heavy configuration with an additional 6 Business Class and 21 Premium Economy seats and less Economy seats, but that can be adjusted and once the 787 fleet gets the new Polaris Seat, that will have an impact on capacity, as well.

It's also meant to fly 7000 miles. It would have its lunch eaten by the MoM in terms of fuel burn per pax on a normal east coast to Europe route.
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PSA1978
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:44 pm

On the improvements to make the 788 like the 789 and 781

https://www.postandcourier.com/business/dash-changes-at-boeing-s-north-charleston-campus-will-make/article_8356e2cc-3750-11e8-9522-e7bda2b3d09e.html

"Darrel Larson, director of aft body operations at the planemaker's South Carolina campus, said the modifications that will be introduced later this year will make the rear fuselage of the 787-8 essentially the same as the 787-9 and 787-10 models, except for their lengths."

This change may also have made 788 more palatable to AA since we don't know (do we?) how significant these changes affect operational costs. There has been lots of speculation on Anet that Boeing was not going to much in the way of improvements with the 788 and no further orders would be received.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:49 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Stitch wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8?


Boeing has done just that and is now going to use the same aft fuselage (Sections 47/48) on the 787-8 and they do on the 787-9 and 787-10.


TWA772LR wrote:
The 788 doesn't make a hood replacement for the 763, it's closer in performance to the 77E.


The 787-9 is more the 777-200ER replacement (at least at 9-abreast Economy) as they have almost identical cabin floor areas.

In terms of seating, the 787-8 seats 219 in a UA configuration compared to the 214 seats of a 767-300ER. The 787-8 is configured in a more premium-heavy configuration with an additional 6 Business Class and 21 Premium Economy seats and less Economy seats, but that can be adjusted and once the 787 fleet gets the new Polaris Seat, that will have an impact on capacity, as well.

It's also meant to fly 7000 miles. It would have its lunch eaten by the MoM in terms of fuel burn per pax on a normal east coast to Europe route.


When the MoM comes out in 2025 or 26, the 787-8's could be moved to other routes.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:50 pm

This new order may pay dividends to AA later when a potential MoM/A322/788 competition comes around. With the new 787 options and deferred MAX deliveries, they likely have additional flexibility in making a decision.
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:56 pm

I was going to make an argument about the UA 788s having a lot more seats than the 763s they'd be replacing and that making 788s unlikely. Upon checking, I was surprised to see the 788 has 1 seat less in Y and 6 seats more in J.

If there's a top-off order for 788s, that gets United a revenue gain (assuming the 6 J seats can be sold), a fuel cost decrease, increased landing fees (the 788 has a higher MTOW than the 763), higher reliability, at the cost of a huge capital outlay. Those last two items would also apply to 330s or NMAs so really don't factor into this-plane-vs-that-plane, though.

I guess wouldn't be surprised to see a 788 order to replace some but not all 763s (replace the oldest sooner, keep the younger ones flying their current thinnest routes) and then an NMA order to replace the international 752s and the youngest straggler 763s.

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight.

I don't know that does United any good given United already has 787-8s in the fleet. I assume it's preferable to have across-the-board identical 788s than have a dozen of one subfleet and two dozen of another.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:00 pm

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a 787 top up order, but not a full scale replacement order. They're too firmly wedded to the MOM concept, so unless that slips dramatically further they won't look elsewhere. They're also picking up used 767s to bridge the gap, like Hawaiian's as they come off of lease, so it looks like the 767 will be flying in UA's colors until a true replacement comes along.
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:47 pm

PSA1978 wrote:
The oldest 763 will be nearly 35 years old when the 797 is speculated to arrive in 2025. Assuming United is a very likely customer for the 797 we have the following options:
1. Keep until the 797 arrives,
2. replace with 788
3. replace with A338
4. replace with newer used 763's

Are there other options?

I'm leaning towards at least some of 21 will be replaced with 788's. Since 14 of the old ones are getting the Polaris upgrade I suppose there is no rush. As others have pointed out, the 788 makes a reasonable place holder until the 797 arrives. They can then be used elsewhere as the 764 needs replacement soon after, a situation that AA did not face. I just dont see that the A338 has a chance without very low pricing. Perhaps United makes a splash with a 787/797 order.


DL seems to be getting OK reliability with their oldest 763s with 130,000 hours on them. Perhaps UA should be looking at maintenance with a little more critical eye to increase reliability?

For reference: N641UA 109,300 hours (December 2017)
N642UA 108,200 hours (Feb 2018)
That initial batch extending through N663UA are the prime replacement candidates. At 3500 hours a year utilization, in a few years any use other than scrapping for parts is out the window, if it isn't already. Pratt engined freighters are not in demand, but we're seeing engine availability as a factor in retirements lately more than cycles or hours on the airframe, and with all the engines coming off the 744 fleet retirement, the early 763s can be run a bit longer.

664-675 are a newer batch just turning 20 now.
N664UA 70,200 hours (Feb 2018)
N675UA 64,300 hours (Nov 2017)
These still have another decade's worth of life in them easy.

For reference, the 764 fleet has a max of 75,000 hours on them, with the oldest (N66051) just one line number ahead of the newest 763 (N675UA)
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PSA1978
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:59 pm

Spacepope wrote:
PSA1978 wrote:
The oldest 763 will be nearly 35 years old when the 797 is speculated to arrive in 2025. Assuming United is a very likely customer for the 797 we have the following options:
1. Keep until the 797 arrives,
2. replace with 788
3. replace with A338
4. replace with newer used 763's

Are there other options?

I'm leaning towards at least some of 21 will be replaced with 788's. Since 14 of the old ones are getting the Polaris upgrade I suppose there is no rush. As others have pointed out, the 788 makes a reasonable place holder until the 797 arrives. They can then be used elsewhere as the 764 needs replacement soon after, a situation that AA did not face. I just dont see that the A338 has a chance without very low pricing. Perhaps United makes a splash with a 787/797 order.


DL seems to be getting OK reliability with their oldest 763s with 130,000 hours on them. Perhaps UA should be looking at maintenance with a little more critical eye to increase reliability?

For reference: N641UA 109,300 hours (December 2017)
N642UA 108,200 hours (Feb 2018)
That initial batch extending through N663UA are the prime replacement candidates. At 3500 hours a year utilization, in a few years any use other than scrapping for parts is out the window, if it isn't already. Pratt engined freighters are not in demand, but we're seeing engine availability as a factor in retirements lately more than cycles or hours on the airframe, and with all the engines coming off the 744 fleet retirement, the early 763s can be run a bit longer.

664-675 are a newer batch just turning 20 now.
N664UA 70,200 hours (Feb 2018)
N675UA 64,300 hours (Nov 2017)
These still have another decade's worth of life in them easy.

For reference, the 764 fleet has a max of 75,000 hours on them, with the oldest (N66051) just one line number ahead of the newest 763 (N675UA)


This makes a good case for keeping them all until 797 is available. I had not considered that a ready supply of engines is available for the early batch, American has no such option.
 
hawk2100n
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:02 pm

I think we will see UA attempt to buy as many 763s in the mean time like the airframes they are getting from Hawaiian. The fleet age of the 763 shows that the MoM aircraft is late to the game. And the points made about MTOW of the 788 vs the 763 are huge, 787-8 is more efficient, but it has *SO MUCH* additional weight to move around that the 763 is competatitive on shorter stage lengths. What United operating more domestic trunk routes with widebodies, it doesn’t make sense to put a heavier aircraft on that.

I think UA will expand their relatively small fleet of 788s (only 12) if they can be sure that they can re-allocate in a few years to long haul once MoM arrives and pressure is off of that fleet to serve short stage lengths. They’re all about right sizing currently, and it will be key to see what they choose. We may see MAX service in creative places...
 
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:37 pm

Is it possible that AirBus, having lost the AA deal, might now be motivated to offer UA a deal Boeing won’t? Are they feeling a bit desperate now, or will they consider it not financially feasible and walk away?
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boilerla
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:50 pm

Given that UA is taking 3 of HA's 763s, and they are installing Polaris on the 763s, UA probably expects the 763 to stay around for another 10-15 years. That's long enough for a MOM order, and the 3 HAs can take the place of the oldest UA 763s until the MOM arrives.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:53 pm

iahcsr wrote:
Is it possible that AirBus, having lost the AA deal, might now be motivated to offer UA a deal Boeing won’t? Are they feeling a bit desperate now, or will they consider it not financially feasible and walk away?


A deal for what aircraft? A330neo? Good luck.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:24 pm

I agree that UA appears to be taking a different strategy than DL (lots of 330s coming) or AA (lots of 787’s coming) for much of their medium haul needs. I expect the 767 utilization will slow significantly as 78J’s begin to arrive and displace them this year and ramp up fleet slack. Lower utilization significantly reduces impact of dispatch reliability. The extensive maintenance program completed during the Polaris retrofit seems to be helping in that area as well. For the most part, I suspect they will spend most of their lives in ORD & EWR (& some IAD?) TATL flying along some IAH/EWR - South America all of which relatively low utilization. UA’s TATL network is actually fairly unique in this regard due to the 3-hub triangle and higher O/D rates.

This appears to be a good spot for them to milk their sunset years waiting on the next-generation airframe to arrive and offer an enormous bump in efficiency.

Recall the 788 trip cost is essentially the same as a 763ER although it’s moreless 764 size. The 788 just doesn’t provide the same utility in UA’s thinner O/D short range high frequency network.

With higher connection traffic, especially from MSP and ATL, DL is going larger A339 to get seat costs down. AA is going flexible 788/789 which can fly from their more diverse hub network better. Both (as most other airlines) are focused on replacing 767’s before 777’s.

Meanwhile UA is more focused (has been!) on 777 and larger, longer scale flying and boosting their domestic network. They’ve used their 6 years of 788 and 789 deliveries to open up new long hauls across the globe and will use the upcoming 78J’s most likely on the heavy end of medium range. Although the deferred the A359’s (with conversion) these are likely to start arriving before NMA/MOM/797 arrive that are moreless the 767’s long term successor. Basically, it seems UA is trying to skip a generation of aircraft in this class (although they do have a small fleet of early 788’s but most are flying routes that would be a struggle if not impossible for 767s)
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The recent success of the 788 puts the idea of a MoM in a different light. If they can win with the 788, there is no pressing need to invest in a new program.

The key word is "If".

AA has a Parker-driven mandate to simplify the fleet. I don't think that's the general industry wide trend.

For example, DL will have A321, A330, A330neo, A350, B757, B767, B787 and B777 in the fleet at the same time, and presumably be adding 797 too.

Personally I think AA/Parker is over-simplifying and may be shoving the round 788 into a square hole just because they are so focused on having less types in the fleet.

DL has no plans for the 787, but they do also have quite the variety of narrowbodies too. And quite a bit of variability within types.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:42 am

cledaybuck wrote:
Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The recent success of the 788 puts the idea of a MoM in a different light. If they can win with the 788, there is no pressing need to invest in a new program.

The key word is "If".

AA has a Parker-driven mandate to simplify the fleet. I don't think that's the general industry wide trend.

For example, DL will have A321, A330, A330neo, A350, B757, B767, B787 and B777 in the fleet at the same time, and presumably be adding 797 too.

Personally I think AA/Parker is over-simplifying and may be shoving the round 788 into a square hole just because they are so focused on having less types in the fleet.

DL has no plans for the 787, but they do also have quite the variety of narrowbodies too. And quite a bit of variability within types.

DL has 787s coming? :o When did DL re-order those?

Agree with you on the oversimplifying. I've got nothing against the 787, I think it will suit AA's fleet needs really well, but as an avid planespotter, it would have been lovely to see some A330neos and/or A350s in AA colors! :hearts:
 
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idp5601
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:31 am

Revelation wrote:

For example, DL will have A321, A330, A330neo, A350, B757, B767, B787 and B777 in the fleet at the same time, and presumably be adding 797 too.


Pretty sure DL already canceled its 787 orders.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:20 pm

adamblang wrote:

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight.


I don't know that does United any good given United already has 787-8s in the fleet. I assume it's preferable to have across-the-board identical 788s than have a dozen of one subfleet and two dozen of another.


Well as others have since pointed out, the newer 787-8's will now have exactly the same empenage section as the 787-9 and 787-10. Any replacement parts would be the same as those on the 787-9 or 787-10 that United will also operate. Another advantage is that the lightenened 787-8 is likely to have even longer maximum range than the 787-9. This could make it ideal for long thin routes. Perhaps it could be used on an IAH-MEL route. If I were UA management, I would put newly built 787-8's put on long routes while the older ones could be put on longer 767-300 routes. Once the MoM comes into service in the mid to late 2020's, the 787-8's could be moved to longer routes for which they would be better suited
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:20 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Another advantage is that the lightenened 787-8 is likely to have even longer maximum range than the 787-9.


Only if Boeing raises the operating weights of the 787-8 to match the 787-9. As yet, there seems to be no plan to do this (and I don't think there is a need considering ULH capability does not seem to be helping the A330-800 so I do not see where it would help the 787-8).
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:31 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
adamblang wrote:

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight.


I don't know that does United any good given United already has 787-8s in the fleet. I assume it's preferable to have across-the-board identical 788s than have a dozen of one subfleet and two dozen of another.


Well as others have since pointed out, the newer 787-8's will now have exactly the same empenage section as the 787-9 and 787-10. Any replacement parts would be the same as those on the 787-9 or 787-10 that United will also operate. Another advantage is that the lightenened 787-8 is likely to have even longer maximum range than the 787-9. This could make it ideal for long thin routes. Perhaps it could be used on an IAH-MEL route. If I were UA management, I would put newly built 787-8's put on long routes while the older ones could be put on longer 767-300 routes. Once the MoM comes into service in the mid to late 2020's, the 787-8's could be moved to longer routes for which they would be better suited


I see that the two 11-year-old ex-Shanghai ER 763's are still under BCC. Since these are PW4000 powered, is it possible Boeing could offer UA these birds in addition to these extra 788's as part of a pre-MOM solution? The poor HNA 763's will need a home too.
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:56 pm

Stitch wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Another advantage is that the lightenened 787-8 is likely to have even longer maximum range than the 787-9.


Only if Boeing raises the operating weights of the 787-8 to match the 787-9. As yet, there seems to be no plan to do this (and I don't think there is a need considering ULH capability does not seem to be helping the A330-800 so I do not see where it would help the 787-8).


From what I've read, the 787-8 had excess weight compared to the 787-9. Just substituting lighter weight 787-9 parts on 787-8's should improve the performance of the 787-8 without having to increase the gross weight of the 787-8 to 787-9 weights.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:29 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
From what I've read, the 787-8 had excess weight compared to the 787-9. Just substituting lighter weight 787-9 parts on 787-8's should improve the performance of the 787-8 without having to increase the gross weight of the 787-8 to 787-9 weights.


While all 787 models have the same available fuel volume, the 787-8 is generally Fuel-Weight Limited - with a normal payload, there is not enough available Take-Off Weight left to fill the tanks to the level the 787-9 can because the 787-9's MTOW is 26,000kg higher whereas even with the extra structural weight and payload, a 787-9's Zero Fuel Weight will still allow it to tank thousands of kilograms more fuel than a 787-8 which will allow it to fly farther.
 
globalcabotage
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:31 pm

No. UA will get other planes and then move the oldest and worst to ORD (biggest hub, but red-headed step-child when it comes to new aircraft).
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:48 pm

Stitch wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
From what I've read, the 787-8 had excess weight compared to the 787-9. Just substituting lighter weight 787-9 parts on 787-8's should improve the performance of the 787-8 without having to increase the gross weight of the 787-8 to 787-9 weights.


While all 787 models have the same available fuel volume, the 787-8 is generally Fuel-Weight Limited - with a normal payload, there is not enough available Take-Off Weight left to fill the tanks to the level the 787-9 can because the 787-9's MTOW is 26,000kg higher whereas even with the extra structural weight and payload, a 787-9's Zero Fuel Weight will still allow it to tank thousands of kilograms more fuel than a 787-8 which will allow it to fly farther.


If structural weight is taken out of the 787-8, that would reduce the zero fuel weight. With no other changes, it would be able to carry more fuel with the same maximum weights as the 787-8.
 
horsepowerchef
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:27 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
adamblang wrote:

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why doesn't Boeing go ahead and put in the optimizations developed for the 787-9 into the 787-8? It would decrease costs by increasing commonality while decreasing weight.


I don't know that does United any good given United already has 787-8s in the fleet. I assume it's preferable to have across-the-board identical 788s than have a dozen of one subfleet and two dozen of another.


Well as others have since pointed out, the newer 787-8's will now have exactly the same empenage section as the 787-9 and 787-10. Any replacement parts would be the same as those on the 787-9 or 787-10 that United will also operate. Another advantage is that the lightenened 787-8 is likely to have even longer maximum range than the 787-9. This could make it ideal for long thin routes. Perhaps it could be used on an IAH-MEL route. If I were UA management, I would put newly built 787-8's put on long routes while the older ones could be put on longer 767-300 routes. Once the MoM comes into service in the mid to late 2020's, the 787-8's could be moved to longer routes for which they would be better suited


That would be really neat, but I believe the 789 is able to have a higher MTOW due to it having different (stronger) landing gear and tires, so i dont think the 788 will ever match match the 789 in terms of range due to its in ability to carry the weight of the fuel to do so...
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:40 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
If structural weight is taken out of the 787-8, that would reduce the zero fuel weight. With no other changes, it would be able to carry more fuel with the same maximum weights as the 787-8.


Yes, but you would need to pull upwards of 7,000kg just to match the difference in fuel a 787-9 can load at Maximum Zero Fuel Weight compared to what a 787-8 could (with their current Maximum Take-Off Weights). That is more than the difference of the most "terrible" of the "Terrible Teens" overage compared to what LN090 was (the first 787-8 to reach the original design weight) and the latest builds are now some 4,000kg lower than LN090 thanks to using weight-optimized 787-9 parts.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Will UA order more 787-8 to replace 21 oldest 767-300s ?

Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:32 pm

PSA1978 wrote:
The oldest 763 will be nearly 35 years old when the 797 is speculated to arrive in 2025.


37, actually, for the -300ER. March 1988 to American Airlines.

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