BawliBooch wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Kingfisher was prepaying leases, buying aircraft with cash, and had zero operational debt? Err... Look at AI, 9W, GoAir, and SpiceJet.

Cash is king. when that burns out, things start to go downhill. Like it did with KF. There is only so much slush money in tax havens of Macau & Isle of Mann - not an endless pool.

lightsaber wrote:

With the Pratt NEOs now working better, 6E will thrive. With A321s and their lower CASM.

Let us not base our opinions on the PR spiel dished out by some people with a direct line to the Indigo/SpiceJet CEO!

When are the A321's arriving?

Are the PW NEO's working better? How many are grounded right now? And are the non-functioning NEO's the only thing pulling 6E down?

Come on now!

Come on now what? In the prior quarter, opperations issues with Pratt NEOs cost Indigo severely. This quarter four of the prior kit created issues. The cost savings are now greater than the issues

You also missed my point. Cash is King. Indigo is buying many aircraft with reduced debt. The ATRs with cash.

The A321s are on order, or do you doubt that? Do you doubt many airlines are upgauging to cut unit costs? They start arriving in 2019 (next year) and will be 100% NEO by YE2022:

http://www.zeebiz.com/companies/news-wi ... mbers-6397

Indigo isn't losing money as say Air India or Jet. They can continue to fund their expansion.

But it isn't just Indigo. SpiceJet seems to be doing well and last quarter should be the last bad one for GoAir. Vistara... I'm taking a wait and see.

It looks like Indigo is at AA3 credit rating.
https://m.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Ind ... -725203907

I'm not aware of any Indian airline that is even close. Last I looked, that is a better credit rating than the GoI!

So you think they are in trouble. I'm seeing numbers that say otherwise. The have the lowest CASM, so if they expand, the competition is at a disadvantage. So they should expand.

I'm not aware of any other Indian airline that will be 100% latest generation aircraft in 2023. There is no way 9W or AI could raise enough funding to do so. I could see the now smaller airlines... Have any made such plans? If not, that is concerning quite a cost advantage to 6E.

Has any competitor announced higher profits?

https://www.goindigo.in/information/inv ... tions.html

CASK up 0.61, of which 0.35 was fuel. Fuel is now 40% of all expenses. But enough cash to keep this up... Forever.

Oh yes, let us bookmark this thread.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Indigo isn't losing money as say Air India or Jet. They can continue to fund their expansion.

It is a losing battle to argue on the basis of logic with someone on a political agenda.

Minor nitpick: IndiGo does not have a credit rating from Moody's. You have linked to a different firm. In any case no Indian firm will have a USD denominated credit rating higher than that of GoI itself.

I just realized 6E has twice the free cash as their debt. Wow!

unrave wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Indigo isn't losing money as say Air India or Jet. They can continue to fund their expansion.

It is a losing battle to argue on the basis of logic with someone on a political agenda.

Minor nitpick: IndiGo does not have a credit rating from Moody's. You have linked to a different firm. In any case no Indian firm will have a USD denominated credit rating higher than that of GoI itself.

My mistake on the credit rating. But companies do often have credit rating higher than their host government....

Either way, as I just noticed, Indigo has twice the free cash as their debt and the fraction of owned (including financed) keeps growing. If debt is a near constant (which it has for Indigo) and the number of owned aircraft increases (as it has), then the equity of owned aircraft increases unless a significant time has relapsed.

As I look at the latest numbers, Indigo is being managed for maximum growth at a constant (low) debt... Wow!

Lightsaber

If IndiGo results appear bad wait till you Jet's (Aug 21 IIRC). The consensus estimate is a loss of c250 cr

unrave wrote:

If IndiGo results appear bad wait till you Jet's (Aug 21 IIRC). The consensus estimate is a loss of c250 cr

Well I guess we both are the only resident Indians here who are active in these forums at 1:40am. (avgeek spirit).

Coming to the point, I think comparing the results of 6E and 9W won't be suitable at this time because no way can 9W produce wonderful results now. They are undergoing several changes in their cost structures etc. Even during their last quarter's results, we all thought that 9W is in worst state but later came to know that they had actually done well in that quarter (reduced non fuel CASK) but other factors led to their losses.

Sigh, Indigo now saying it won't be until the end of the current quarter that Pratt delivers enough spare engines to fly entire NEO fleet and NEO performance weighed on earnings:
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... on-margins

Sigh... It is tough being a Pratt fan...

Lightsaber

All this talk of Kingfisher had me wondering if they ever made an annual profit:. Nope:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History ... r_Airlines

They truncated FY07/08 to achieve a -12.2% margin! Yea.. More years than not they had worse than -25% margins. Comparing to a cash rich airline makes no sense to me.

lightsaber wrote:

Sigh, Indigo now saying it won't be until the end of the current quarter that Pratt delivers enough spare engines to fly entire NEO fleet and NEO performance weighed on earnings:

The silver lining is the fact that all 5 grounded neos were delivered before Nov 17, which seems to suggest that the current batch of neos post the fixes applied by PW are working fine.

All this talk of Kingfisher had me wondering if they ever made an annual profit:

Forget annual profits, IT was infamous for never reporting even a quarterly profit! But seriously, calling 6E the next IT smacks of stupidity or malice or both.

IndiGo's September expansion (upto 16Sep)

From 1Sep18
Delhi - Gorakhpur, 1st freq
Agartala - Guwahati, 2nd frq
Ahmedabad - Bhubaneshwar, 1st freq
Ahmedabad - Hyderabad, 5th freq
Ahmedabad - Kolkata, 4th freq
Ahmedabad - Varanasi, 1st freq
Hyderabad - Jaipur, 3rd freq
Hyderabad - Kolkata, 8th freq
Hyderabad - Patna, 1st freq
Kolkata - Nagpur, 3rd freq

From 15Sep18
Amritsar - Hyderabad, 1st freq
Hyderabad - Lucknow, 4th freq
Hyderabad - Udaipur, 1st freq
Kolkata - Singapore, 1st freq

From 16Sep18
Tiruchirappalli - Singapore, 1st freq

All flights on A320. Some are not daily.

I wanted some help/suggestion, I will be going to the US and Canada, the last time I went there was more than 20 years ago and it was on AI, but well now times have changed. I do travel frequently to Europe and Asian destinations so I do have an idea regarding the ticket prices and the best and basically the cheapest route wether its EK or EY or QR or even Kuwait Airways.

But regarding US and Canada any idea what will be the approx. cheapest tickets from Bombay? I am a budget traveller, I am planning to go at the end of September or beginning of October. Many people travel by ME 3 to North America, but the cheapest tickets I am able to find are from 9W via Ams or LHR from around Rs. 52k to 62k.

Another thing I wanted to ask that should I go from BOM to Toronto and then take a cheap flight to a US destination and come back from a US Destination or go back to Toronto and come back to Bombay.

I would really appreciate some suggestions. Thank You.

lightsaber wrote:

All this talk of Kingfisher had me wondering if they ever made an annual profit:. Nope:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History ... r_Airlines

They truncated FY07/08 to achieve a -12.2% margin! Yea.. More years than not they had worse than -25% margins. Comparing to a cash rich airline makes no sense to me.

Agreed! KF never made a profit. But up until 2009-10, KF was the airline that could do no wrong. The same set of bloggers and PR agents were tooting KF's horn. Today it is Indigo!

Having access to tons of cash in the kitty (or in tax havens) is a lot different from making money. But it is not a bottomless pit and the burn rate has increased!

Indigo did well when fuel prices were low. But with the fuel prices going through the roof they are in serious trouble.

Slash787 wrote:

I wanted some help/suggestion, I will be going to the US and Canada, the last time I went there was more than 20 years ago and it was on AI, but well now times have changed. I do travel frequently to Europe and Asian destinations so I do have an idea regarding the ticket prices and the best and basically the cheapest route wether its EK or EY or QR or even Kuwait Airways.

But regarding US and Canada any idea what will be the approx. cheapest tickets from Bombay? I am a budget traveller, I am planning to go at the end of September or beginning of October. Many people travel by ME 3 to North America, but the cheapest tickets I am able to find are from 9W via Ams or LHR from around Rs. 52k to 62k.

Another thing I wanted to ask that should I go from BOM to Toronto and then take a cheap flight to a US destination and come back from a US Destination or go back to Toronto and come back to Bombay.

I would really appreciate some suggestions. Thank You.

Did a rough search for BOM -JFK &YYZ during the period you mentioned.
The cheapest fares for JFK is in the range of 52-56k inr. The airline might be 9W JV partners or CX, or LX/UA combination as per my observation. ME3 fares are moderate. However the cheapest for YYZ starts at 71k. Well among the cheapest ones to JFK, you do have few flights which are 18-19hrs .See if you can try them instead of the other 22hr ones.

I think you should go for Mumbai to Toronto out bound and while returning US city -EU -BOM instead of via YYZ. Best advice I can give you is try connecting at the same hub for both outbound and return journey. Like that at least while returning you'll connect at a known airport .

I hope I was able to help you.
Bon voyage!!!

Thank you very much for the reply Khalnayak, It was helpful and I really appreciate it.

Has any one tried to get a UK Transit Visa at LHR? There are some flights via LHR too, but I am skeptical about it as my UK tourist visa was denied a few years even though I have a Canada and a US Visa.

unrave wrote:

IndiGo's September expansion (upto 16Sep)

From 1Sep18
Delhi - Gorakhpur, 1st freq
Agartala - Guwahati, 2nd frq
Ahmedabad - Bhubaneshwar, 1st freq
Ahmedabad - Hyderabad, 5th freq
Ahmedabad - Kolkata, 4th freq
Ahmedabad - Varanasi, 1st freq
Hyderabad - Jaipur, 3rd freq
Hyderabad - Kolkata, 8th freq
Hyderabad - Patna, 1st freq
Kolkata - Nagpur, 3rd freq

From 15Sep18
Amritsar - Hyderabad, 1st freq
Hyderabad - Lucknow, 4th freq
Hyderabad - Udaipur, 1st freq
Kolkata - Singapore, 1st freq

From 16Sep18
Tiruchirappalli - Singapore, 1st freq

All flights on A320. Some are not daily.

Hi, thanks for this list!

8x/day between Hyderabad and Kolkata is crazy.
Since you seem to be knowledgeable about these matters, do you have an idea of which route is the most popular in terms of frequencies for a particular airline?

I'd say Indigo between BOM/DEL after some quick google-fu, but is that correct? What about the 2nd most popular city pair?

Cheers,
Mir

AirAsia India Q1FY18 results update

Available seats up 87%
Passenger traffic up 74%
Load factor down 6%
Revenue up 76%

AirAsia hasn't provided profit figures but it is safe to assume that losses have continued. The mismatch between revenue and capacity growth means RASK has gone down significantly.

The important takeaway from the presentation is that by aircraft no 21 will arrive by Dec 2018 and Q4FY18 will see the beginning of international operations.

Side note: I5 has a domestic market share of 5% and operates a grand total of one unique route. Trujet does more for Tier 2 and Tier 3 connectivity than I5, despite what you hear from certain clueless quarters.

Slash787 wrote:

Thank you very much for the reply Khalnayak, It was helpful and I really appreciate it.

Has any one tried to get a UK Transit Visa at LHR? There are some flights via LHR too, but I am skeptical about it as my UK tourist visa was denied a few years even though I have a Canada and a US Visa.

If you have a stamped US / Canada Visa, why do you need a transit visa for the UK?

More cost cutting from Vistara.
They'll introduce a new economy lite type fare which will be non refundable, meals buy on board!!!!!!!!!!!
So if anyone was thinking 9W's idea of serving Indian burger in very short flights was too much cost cutting, what would you say about this.
Personally I'll be happy if Vistara can sustain itself which it will given that finally it has taken costs into consideration. So Sanjiv kapoor, today I got the "new feeling " and it's the feeling of hope. Hope for survival in this market.
BTW no more #Notjustanotherairline PR here?

VTORD wrote:

Slash787 wrote:

Thank you very much for the reply Khalnayak, It was helpful and I really appreciate it.

Has any one tried to get a UK Transit Visa at LHR? There are some flights via LHR too, but I am skeptical about it as my UK tourist visa was denied a few years even though I have a Canada and a US Visa.

If you have a stamped US / Canada Visa, why do you need a transit visa for the UK?

From what I know you need to get a Transit Visa if you are changing terminals and all of this depends at the discretion of the immigration officer.

binayak wrote:

More cost cutting from Vistara.
They'll introduce a new economy lite type fare which will be non refundable, meals buy on board!!!!!!!!!!!
So if anyone was thinking 9W's idea of serving Indian burger in very short flights was too much cost cutting, what would you say about this.
Personally I'll be happy if Vistara can sustain itself which it will given that finally it has taken costs into consideration. So Sanjiv kapoor, today I got the "new feeling " and it's the feeling of hope. Hope for survival in this market.
BTW no more #Notjustanotherairline PR here?

Sanjiv Kapoor bringing his old employer Bain Consulting in a consulting role to Vistara. Didn't help SpiceJet, not sure what they can do for Vistara.

I guess now Deepika and Jr.Deepika will run ads showing how to buy food on board.

binayak wrote:

More cost cutting from Vistara.
They'll introduce a new economy lite type fare which will be non refundable, meals buy on board!!!!!!!!!!!
So if anyone was thinking 9W's idea of serving Indian burger in very short flights was too much cost cutting, what would you say about this.
Personally I'll be happy if Vistara can sustain itself which it will given that finally it has taken costs into consideration. So Sanjiv kapoor, today I got the "new feeling " and it's the feeling of hope. Hope for survival in this market.
BTW no more #Notjustanotherairline PR here?

Do you follow Sanjiv Kapoor on Twitter? His feed is the very definition of trying too hard.
Edit: This looks like a typical LCC type fare. So much for being a premium airline. Do they have IFE?

unrave wrote:

Do you follow Sanjiv Kapoor on Twitter? His feed is the very definition of trying too hard.
Edit: This looks like a typical LCC type fare. So much for being a premium airline. Do they have IFE?

Yes I do follow him. Sorry didn't get what you meant by "trying too hard ".
Vistara has live IFE streaming in personal device just like 9W. However in case of Vistara, the IFE service is in only one aircraft currently as far as I have heard though never experienced it. They said they will introduce it in all aircrafts.
Yes the economy lite is like an LCC type fare. Done to compete with 9W's economy deal I guess. Well 9W provides meals in all fare buckets be it snacks or hot meals. Let's see how this goes on.

Slash787 wrote:

From what I know you need to get a Transit Visa if you are changing terminals and all of this depends at the discretion of the immigration officer.

https://travel.stackexchange.com/questi ... trol-check

You can go to uk.gov and there is a self help tool that helps you determine whether you need a transit visa or not. They have an exemptions list at the end of the evaluation that will tell you
Just enter No to the question about entering UK border control.

Exemptions
You don’t need a visa if you have one of the following:

a visa for Canada, New Zealand, Australia or the USA (this can be used for travel to any country)

BawliBooch wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

All this talk of Kingfisher had me wondering if they ever made an annual profit:. Nope:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History ... r_Airlines

They truncated FY07/08 to achieve a -12.2% margin! Yea.. More years than not they had worse than -25% margins. Comparing to a cash rich airline makes no sense to me.

Agreed! KF never made a profit. But up until 2009-10, KF was the airline that could do no wrong. The same set of bloggers and PR agents were tooting KF's horn. Today it is Indigo!

Having access to tons of cash in the kitty (or in tax havens) is a lot different from making money. But it is not a bottomless pit and the burn rate has increased!

Indigo did well when fuel prices were low. But with the fuel prices going through the roof they are in serious trouble.

A small drop in debt and an increase in assets is trouble? I wish more Indian airlines we're in that trouble.

They did a stock sale to assist with aircraft buying. What burn rate are you referring to?

With more NEOs flying, this quarter will be better.

Bloggers liking or disliking... I pay no attention. I look at fundamentals and contengency options. Indigo will be around for many years.

You are aware, per their last quarterly report, that free cash is more than 2x their debt? They have a lot of cash properly noted as liened as that helps lower financing costs.

Next year will be an interesting one for AI.

Lightsaber

The busiest airports for the first six months of this year are out. Guess what.... DEL is TENTH!!!!!
Some questions of mine...
Has BOM come up in top 25?
Has BLR come up in top 50?

All doomsday prediction for Indigo, it seems Jet is in a far precarious position

Airlines in a tailspin: Now, Jet talks of salary cuts

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst

sibibom wrote:

All doomsday prediction for Indigo, it seems Jet is in a far precarious position

Airlines in a tailspin: Now, Jet talks of salary cuts

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst

I fear this pay cut and difference in opinion with pilots union might once more lead to a strike. Remember what happened in 2009? I hope all decisions are taken with caution.
Of course pay cuts are highly disappointing for any salaried employee .it's obvious that pilots won't entertain this.

I wonder if Jet's MAX is on SLB? Else will they be able to make the payments, will there be deferment?

sibibom wrote:

I wonder if Jet's MAX is on SLB? Else will they be able to make the payments, will there be deferment?

Most of them are on SLB.

binayak wrote:

unrave wrote:

Do you follow Sanjiv Kapoor on Twitter? His feed is the very definition of trying too hard.
Edit: This looks like a typical LCC type fare. So much for being a premium airline. Do they have IFE?

Yes I do follow him. Sorry didn't get what you meant by "trying too hard ".
Vistara has live IFE streaming in personal device just like 9W. However in case of Vistara, the IFE service is in only one aircraft currently as far as I have heard though never experienced it. They said they will introduce it in all aircrafts.
Yes the economy lite is like an LCC type fare. Done to compete with 9W's economy deal I guess. Well 9W provides meals in all fare buckets be it snacks or hot meals. Let's see how this goes on.

Will they have a list of pax not to serve meals - similar to list of pax ordering preordered or special meals? Will they have last few rows reserved for LCC type pax. What if someone exchanges their seats?

zionite wrote:

Will they have a list of pax not to serve meals - similar to list of pax ordering preordered or special meals? Will they have last few rows reserved for LCC type pax. What if someone exchanges their seats?

Nothing can be understood now. Maybe they'll check everyone's boarding passes.
Even I think the last few rows will be exclusively for this economy lite pax.

Air Italy will be starting 5x weekly MXP-BOM on 30th OCT 2018 as we know.
The route MXP-BOM O&D demand in 2017 was 39,690 with -47.9% decline in growth YoY.

binayak wrote:

The busiest airports for the first six months of this year are out. Guess what.... DEL is TENTH!!!!!
Some questions of mine...
Has BOM come up in top 25?
Has BLR come up in top 50?

Great to hear. Do you have a link to the numbers?

IndyHoosier wrote:

binayak wrote:

The busiest airports for the first six months of this year are out. Guess what.... DEL is TENTH!!!!!
Some questions of mine...
Has BOM come up in top 25?
Has BLR come up in top 50?

Great to hear. Do you have a link to the numbers?

Here you go viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1400481&p=20604519&hilit=ATL#p20604519

The crisis is deepeing for Jet Aiways. Management is telling staff that the airline might be grounded in 60 days unless costs are reduced significantly.
Very strange management of the company IMO. On the verge of collape but still ordering new aircrafts like never before.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jet-a ... KKBN1KO0OJ

"NEW DELHI, Aug 3 (Reuters) - India's biggest full-service carrier Jet Airways Ltd has told its pilots the airline may be grounded in 60 days unless cost-cutting measures including pay cuts are put in place, a senior company executive told Reuters on Friday.
Pilots who have refused a proposed 15 percent pay cut for two years had been informed that the airline was running out of time to slash costs and raise revenue, the source said.
The company was looking at sales and distribution, payroll, maintenance and other areas for savings to create a "healthier and a more resilient business", a company spokesman said in a statement.
Management was in talks with all stakeholders, he added, without giving further details.
Jet Airways is looking for working capital loans but banks want the airline to show a turnaround commitment, the source said, adding that salary reduction was part of the same issue.
"There are some job losses across verticals but not among pilots," the source added, declining to be named as the talks with staff were private.
Shares of Jet Airways were down 4.2 percent at 0600 GMT while the broader market was 0.7 pct higher."

60 days? Wow now thats something which no one wants to hear. Looks like 9W is some deeeep trouble... Now let's see how they pull out of this! Get your popcorn out ppl, we going to have 'experts' & blogs here tell what the 'real problems' are!

Is it just me or is Jet making this situation sound over the top to make the staff agree to the pay cuts?

This is the same airline that made a profit last 2 years, how did it get so dire so fast....Jet has a history of rumors about being funded by the underworld, are things not as simple as it seems...

In every other country, businesses ask for three things

1) Reduce taxes
2) Relax regulations
3) Access to cheap finance

But never seen an airline executive demanding these from the Indian government. Why?

Hello everybody. I knew the truth right from the beginning but didn't post because it was just what I'd heard from someone known. But know I have a reference to show that what I knew is reality
Here it is
https://twitter.com/jetairways/status/1 ... 60640?s=19
Puff pieces, competitors grabbing media, are everywhere you know!!

Asiaflyer wrote:

The crisis is deepeing for Jet Aiways. Management is telling staff that the airline might be grounded in 60 days unless costs are reduced significantly.
Very strange management of the company IMO. On the verge of collape but still ordering new aircrafts like never before.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jet-a ... KKBN1KO0OJ

"NEW DELHI, Aug 3 (Reuters) - India's biggest full-service carrier Jet Airways Ltd has told its pilots the airline may be grounded in 60 days unless cost-cutting measures including pay cuts are put in place, a senior company executive told Reuters on Friday.
Pilots who have refused a proposed 15 percent pay cut for two years had been informed that the airline was running out of time to slash costs and raise revenue, the source said.
The company was looking at sales and distribution, payroll, maintenance and other areas for savings to create a "healthier and a more resilient business", a company spokesman said in a statement.
Management was in talks with all stakeholders, he added, without giving further details.
Jet Airways is looking for working capital loans but banks want the airline to show a turnaround commitment, the source said, adding that salary reduction was part of the same issue.
"There are some job losses across verticals but not among pilots," the source added, declining to be named as the talks with staff were private.
Shares of Jet Airways were down 4.2 percent at 0600 GMT while the broader market was 0.7 pct higher."

Declaring this publicly is huge (the need for pay cuts). A shame it came to this point.

Have they reported 2Q2018 results yet? I couldn't find Q2s (or Q1s) pdf of the quarterly results.
I noticed the 1st quarter was brutal for them (-1,036 crore):
https://www.moneycontrol.com/financials ... sults/JA01

Considering the "Mega Monsoon" fare war was brutal this year, fuel prices, and the general environment, I would expect Jet's 2Q losses to be 2x to 3x the 1st quarter.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Asiaflyer wrote:

The crisis is deepeing for Jet Aiways. Management is telling staff that the airline might be grounded in 60 days unless costs are reduced significantly.
Very strange management of the company IMO. On the verge of collape but still ordering new aircrafts like never before.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jet-a ... KKBN1KO0OJ

"NEW DELHI, Aug 3 (Reuters) - India's biggest full-service carrier Jet Airways Ltd has told its pilots the airline may be grounded in 60 days unless cost-cutting measures including pay cuts are put in place, a senior company executive told Reuters on Friday.
Pilots who have refused a proposed 15 percent pay cut for two years had been informed that the airline was running out of time to slash costs and raise revenue, the source said.
The company was looking at sales and distribution, payroll, maintenance and other areas for savings to create a "healthier and a more resilient business", a company spokesman said in a statement.
Management was in talks with all stakeholders, he added, without giving further details.
Jet Airways is looking for working capital loans but banks want the airline to show a turnaround commitment, the source said, adding that salary reduction was part of the same issue.
"There are some job losses across verticals but not among pilots," the source added, declining to be named as the talks with staff were private.
Shares of Jet Airways were down 4.2 percent at 0600 GMT while the broader market was 0.7 pct higher."

Declaring this publicly is huge (the need for pay cuts). A shame it came to this point.

Have they reported 2Q2018 results yet? I couldn't find Q2s (or Q1s) pdf of the quarterly results.
I noticed the 1st quarter was brutal for them (-1,036 crore):
https://www.moneycontrol.com/financials ... sults/JA01

Considering the "Mega Monsoon" fare war was brutal this year, fuel prices, and the general environment, I would expect Jet's 2Q losses to be 2x to 3x the 1st quarter.

Lightsaber

Do read the official statement not the puff pieces
https://twitter.com/jetairways/status/1 ... 60640?s=19

Found a link on Jet:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 01501.html

While the airline's wage bill increased to Rs 2,801 crore in FY18, from Rs 2,604 crore a year earlier, that of IndiGo stood at Rs 2,366 crore, up from Rs 1,947 crore in FY17.
"On an average, cabin crews in Jet Airways are paid more than double of what their peers in other airlines," Martin said.
The airline's fuel costs increased by 27 percent on year to Rs 6,953 crore in FY18. In comparison, IndiGo's fuel expense rose 22.4 percent to Rs 7,760 crore, despite the airline expanding its fleet from 131 aircraft to 159 during the fiscal year. Jet Airways' fleet remained unchanged at 112 planes.
OK, Indigo grew 20%, so wages were just about inflation above growth. The NEO issues certainly hurt them (higher fuel per passenger flying CEOs).
Did Jet's costs really grow that much with an unchanged fleet?


Judging purely off 1q losses, they cannot cut salaries enough to be break even. What exactly is going wrong? It seems as if their long haul revenue is no where near break even. That bodes very poorly for AI FWIW. (I believe Jet earns higher front cabin RASK, I would love to see numbers).

Lightsaber

Cost cutting is not a bad thing. Ability to right size without completely folding is not a bad thing. As the longest surviving private carrier, I think Jet Airways will ride out this cycle. I doubt 9W will push pilots too hard knowing they can get jobs anywhere else in an instant.

It would help if the media is honest, but it is too much to ask in India. The only way to keep them quiet is thru free lunches.

lightsaber wrote:

IndiGo's fuel expense rose [b]22.4[/b] percent to Rs 7,760 crore, despite the airline expanding its fleet from 131 aircraft to 159 during the fiscal year.

Lightsaber

I think whoever wrote this masterpiece mixed up a few numbers.

The 27% is the average ATF increase in India as stated by Indian Oil Corporation Limited.
Indigo fuel cost went up by 30%.

The 3% difference was explained by Bhatia during Q&A. ATF vendors in India offer a fixed price discount, not a percentage. As the base price goes up, the volume discount benefit decreases.

You should listen to the conference call, rather than relying on these masterpieces, or paid social media warrior's one line posts.

Airasia India launches non stop Bengaluru-Bagdogra flight wef 18AUG. This will be the 3rd airline to launch Non stop on this route. IndiGo is also launching non stop from 09AUG.
I5-2392 BLR 1000 1250 IXB
I5-2393 IXB 1320 1600 BLR

Jet Airways in this past week’s schedule update filed additional frequency for its planned Mumbai – Manchester route, set to commence on 05 NOV 2018, subject to Government Approval. The airline currently displays 5 weekly flights, instead of 4, with extra flight added on Fridays, with Airbus A330-200 aircraft.
9W130 BOM0230 – 0755MAN 332 x23
9W129 MAN0935 – 0040+1BOM 332 x23

unrave wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Sigh, Indigo now saying it won't be until the end of the current quarter that Pratt delivers enough spare engines to fly entire NEO fleet and NEO performance weighed on earnings:

The silver lining is the fact that all 5 grounded neos were delivered before Nov 17, which seems to suggest that the current batch of neos post the fixes applied by PW are working fine.

All this talk of Kingfisher had me wondering if they ever made an annual profit:

Forget annual profits, IT was infamous for never reporting even a quarterly profit! But seriously, calling 6E the next IT smacks of stupidity or malice or both.

If the NEO patch is working then 6E has overcome arguably the biggest challenge they faced. These NEO’s should rake in cash now that the fuel prices are at a premium.

I wonder how will the equilibrium swing wrt the ME3 since they for most part operate an (inefficient) wide body fleet.

The price war continues:
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 408_1.html

This is going to devastate airlines who do not have costs under control.

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

IndiGo's fuel expense rose [b]22.4[/b] percent to Rs 7,760 crore, despite the airline expanding its fleet from 131 aircraft to 159 during the fiscal year.

Lightsaber

I think whoever wrote this masterpiece mixed up a few numbers.

The 27% is the average ATF increase in India as stated by Indian Oil Corporation Limited.
Indigo fuel cost went up by 30%.

The 3% difference was explained by Bhatia during Q&A. ATF vendors in India offer a fixed price discount, not a percentage. As the base price goes up, the volume discount benefit decreases.

You should listen to the conference call, rather than relying on these masterpieces, or paid social media warrior's one line posts.

You are right, I should have pulled from the quarterly report:

Item 2q2018 2q2017 change
Fuel Cost 27,156 17,592 +54.4%

https://www.goindigo.in/content/dam/goi ... esults.pdf

Fuel went up more than the quote.
So it will be even worse for Jet and Air India due to the weight of widebodies and how they haul fuel a long distance to fly.

So the verbal people said something wrong. You really should read the quarterly reports.

Please post a link to Air India's. Oh wait... They have opaque accounting, which is never good.

I will wait until late Monday to discuss further 9W when they present results and we should all compare to SpiceJet and GoAir.

I really wonder how long this horrid revenue period will last in India. I believe as long as one of the competitors doesn't have to worry about losses and matches/beats the ULCCs without having their cost basis.

Lightsaber

vadodara wrote:

If the NEO patch is working then 6E has overcome arguably the biggest challenge they faced. These NEO’s should rake in cash now that the fuel prices are at a premium.

I wonder how will the equilibrium swing wrt the ME3 since they for most part operate an (inefficient) wide body fleet.

Agreed that this should help out 9E (and GoAir).

Pratts have lower fuel burn, if they are working, they should be profit makers now.

The challenge is the continuing fare wars.


What I don't know is where the low season typically ends? This could absolutely destroy the 3Q income potential. However, 6E can continue this indefinitely. I suspect so could SpiceJet and GoAir should be doing well enough.

Vistara, Jet, AirAsia, and Air India... they need to replan as their current strategies do not seem aligned with costs (fuel/rupee dropping) and a sustained price war.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

...
Fuel went up more than the quote.
So it will be even worse for Jet and Air India due to the weight of widebodies and how they haul fuel a long distance to fly.

Lightsaber

Both 9W and AI earn foreign exchange thru ticket sales in other countries a lot more than 6E. Advantage USD denomination payments.
ex-Foreign station, they don't pay taxes. The advantage over significantly majority domestic flights.