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neomax
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Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:24 am

Is IST-SYD next?

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andrej
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:41 am

Is there a business case fot such route? What is your reasoning? I don't know the traffic statistics, so it is hard to say.

Obviously, it is 'doable', but then again so is BTS - PER.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:43 am

It's been next for 5 years now.
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qf002
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:54 am

SYD-IST is 200nm further than PER-LHR which seems to be at the limit for a low-density 789. I'm hopeful that TK can find a way to make it work but it might be a push too far without a proper ULH aircraft.

The latest chatter was of a flight via SE Asia but I can't see that being a huge success.
 
Blerg
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:06 am

TK has a massive advantage over some other airlines. If they launch SYD flights they could rely on a massive Balkan diaspora down there. IST-BEG/SKP/ZAG/TGD/SJJ/ATH/SKG are all less than 100 minutes away meaning one of their legs would have lower costs on top of a lot of O&D demand. With that, they could charge more for the IST-SYD thus reducing costs.
 
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idp5601
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:41 am

andrej wrote:
Is there a business case fot such route? What is your reasoning? I don't know the traffic statistics, so it is hard to say.

Obviously, it is 'doable', but then again so is BTS - PER.


TK (which would be the most likely airline to start such a route) heavily depends on connecting pax, not O&D traffic. And I'm pretty sure there's still room for one superconnector airline in Australia, especially considering that they usually undercut the ME3 in price most of the time.
 
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cougar15
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:59 am

a thread of few words, I thought the new forum rules meant we get a bit more than 4 words a a thread starter?
IST-AU is coming, it has been for 6 years according to TK (we are all still waiting). The question is, on what (current TK) metal? Nothing there that could do it non-stop (economically) , and the prices would have to be awfully cheap for a ´via SIN/JKT´ or whatever solution. Presuming they would not get 5th rights on such services, what are we expecting, a TK 77W with 134 bums on seats x Asia to AU? Sorry, I don´t see it happen!
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NTLDaz
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:25 am

cougar15 wrote:
a thread of few words, I thought the new forum rules meant we get a bit more than 4 words a a thread starter?
IST-AU is coming, it has been for 6 years according to TK (we are all still waiting). The question is, on what (current TK) metal? Nothing there that could do it non-stop (economically) , and the prices would have to be awfully cheap for a ´via SIN/JKT´ or whatever solution. Presuming they would not get 5th rights on such services, what are we expecting, a TK 77W with 134 bums on seats x Asia to AU? Sorry, I don´t see it happen!


I'd be gobsmacked if they couldn't get 5th freedom rights - especially via very liberal Singapore.
 
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TK105
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:50 am

I think we will see it by 2019 or most probably by 2020 when 789 and 359 join TK fleet. I not only expect IST-SYD and IST-MEL but also IST-PER as well when the flight rights granted.
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xiaotung
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:55 am

SQ a while ago was already selling tickets for SYD-CGK-SIN but didn't eventually get approval from Indonesia. So if SQ wanted to do it there must be a market for one stop stop routes. Perhaps TK don't have to do it non stop to be successful.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:58 am

TK have been talking about SYD for several years now. In order to be competitive IMO they need to be able to fly IST-SYD nonstop in both directions which is beyond the capabilities of their current fleet. They do have 359s on order, if they get the MTOW increase from the LR model that might make it viable.

The other issue is the current Australia/Turkey bilateral restricts them to 7 weekly frequencies which is good for daily to SYD but requires a bilateral renegociation should they wish to expand. Keeping in mind to SYD alone EK/EY/QR have 7 daily nonstop flights between them from their hubs.
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gokmengs
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:51 am

Turkish aviation enthusiasts will all confirm there are more than few reasons why this route will for sure happen.
1) TK prides itself on being the airline that serves the most countries
2) New Istanbul airport is being marketed as the super connector airport
3) It will actually work. TK does a good job with transfer passengers, its amazing how many cities are within 2 hours flight time of IST
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peterinlisbon
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:01 am

If they did decide to do it, it would be very useful for people living in in Sydney because they could get to pretty much any city in Europe with one short stop as well as North Africa, Ukraine, Israel and Russia. EK/QR/EY don't offer anywhere near as many European destinations, especially smaller cities. I think TK should go for it, but they do seem to me like a fairly cautious airline so we'll see. Perhaps they'll wait until they have the new airport with the "Turkey Neck" tower.
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:05 am

I believe Mel has the highest concentration of Greek people outside Athens or similar (but happy to be corrected).It wouldn't be high yield of course but no doubt very convenient for Greek families in either direction.I believe Syd also has a pretty massive Greek pop too.
It would be quite a nice route for the huge Italian pop too perhaps.Pretty direct route with just a simple one hour local flight.Again not high yield though.
 
kaitak
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:29 am

TK has A350s on order; some of this order (or options exercised) could be for A350 ULRs, which should be able to handle it. If they were to do Oz, I think they'd want to do it via somewhere else first, with existing equipment, just to test the waters.

TK certainly has a great advantage in that it has a far wider coverage of Europe, the Near East, Middle East and African than any of the other ME carriers (let's face it, more than any other airline), so that will help a lot; it's not just the Balkan and Greek diaspora, but the UK, Ireland and other markets too.
 
airbazar
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:39 am

idp5601 wrote:
andrej wrote:
Is there a business case fot such route? What is your reasoning? I don't know the traffic statistics, so it is hard to say.

Obviously, it is 'doable', but then again so is BTS - PER.


TK (which would be the most likely airline to start such a route) heavily depends on connecting pax, not O&D traffic. And I'm pretty sure there's still room for one superconnector airline in Australia, especially considering that they usually undercut the ME3 in price most of the time.


I think you are incorrect. Unlike the ME3, TK has a massive O&D and local Turkish domestic market. They also have a large diaspora around the world. Now whether all of these facts will make a IST-SYD viable or not, I'm not sure.
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:29 pm

airbazar wrote:
idp5601 wrote:
andrej wrote:
Is there a business case fot such route? What is your reasoning? I don't know the traffic statistics, so it is hard to say.

Obviously, it is 'doable', but then again so is BTS - PER.


TK (which would be the most likely airline to start such a route) heavily depends on connecting pax, not O&D traffic. And I'm pretty sure there's still room for one superconnector airline in Australia, especially considering that they usually undercut the ME3 in price most of the time.


I think you are incorrect. Unlike the ME3, TK has a massive O&D and local Turkish domestic market. They also have a large diaspora around the world. Now whether all of these facts will make a IST-SYD viable or not, I'm not sure.

Sorry, meant to say that O&D wouldn't matter as much with a hypothetical IST-SYD.
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:20 pm

Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.
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Kadish
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:42 pm

Any chance another airline could open the route from europe like in Fra/Ams/Mad...-Syd?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:06 pm

OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.


I would think that they're waiting for a plane (i.e. A359ULR?) to actually operate the route non-stop? One-stop would greatly reduced its advantage as a super-connector anyway. There's no point for people to go, let say, SYD-CGK-IST-Europe when they can go with existing ME3 services, SQ via SIN, CX via HKG, etc.

Kadish wrote:
Any chance another airline could open the route from europe like in Fra/Ams/Mad...-Syd?


You referring to non-stops? With what plane?
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:13 pm

IST > SYD is much more economically viable than LHR > Perth , only a matter of time
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:15 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.


I would think that they're waiting for a plane (i.e. A359ULR?) to actually operate the route non-stop? One-stop would greatly reduced its advantage as a super-connector anyway. There's no point for people to go, let say, SYD-CGK-IST-Europe when they can go with existing ME3 services, SQ via SIN, CX via HKG, etc.

TK can just use a vanilla A359 to reach SYD.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:21 pm

Yes the market is in SYD (or perhaps MEL) but would at least IST-PER be doable with any of the aircraft in the current TK fleet?
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:07 pm

OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.

So you're saying people will actually fly KUL/CGK/PVG-IST-SYD? When all of those cities are already only 8 hours flight time from Sydney to begin with?
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YYZLGA
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:53 pm

I mentioned in another thread that TK has an enormous opportunity in Australia if they can make non-stops work. Never mind just the Balkans, they can offer all kinds of non-stops to cities across Europe, including many secondary cities, that the ME3 just can't offer given the distance involved and bilateral issues. TK serves 14 cities in Germany alone. I think SYD is really pushing it given the distance involved, but IST-MEL should be feasible with a 789 given that it's about the same distance as LHR-PER.
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:11 pm

How about the prospect of IST-DPS-SYD (if Indonesian government allow it)?
 
Kadish
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:22 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.


I would think that they're waiting for a plane (i.e. A359ULR?) to actually operate the route non-stop? One-stop would greatly reduced its advantage as a super-connector anyway. There's no point for people to go, let say, SYD-CGK-IST-Europe when they can go with existing ME3 services, SQ via SIN, CX via HKG, etc.

Kadish wrote:
Any chance another airline could open the route from europe like in Fra/Ams/Mad...-Syd?


You referring to non-stops? With what plane?


Sure non stop... with a 359 or 789...
 
Crackshot
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:32 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
Yes the market is in SYD (or perhaps MEL) but would at least IST-PER be doable with any of the aircraft in the current TK fleet?


At the moment? Don't think so. The 789 and 359 I suppose but they won't start getting them for a year.

Kadish wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Any chance another airline could open the route from europe like in Fra/Ams/Mad...-Syd?


You referring to non-stops? With what plane?

Sure non stop... with a 359 or 789...


From Western Europe to Sydney? Not without a major payload hit. QF is looking for aircraft to do non-stop SYD-Europe/Eastern US flights, but that's not for a good few years at least. Besides, even if the technology existed, the chance of any European carrier jumping back into the Aus market, either non-stop or fifth freedom, is slim to none IMO. Better to just use alliance carriers in the Middle East/Southeast Asia/China.
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:36 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.

So you're saying people will actually fly KUL/CGK/PVG-IST-SYD? When all of those cities are already only 8 hours flight time from Sydney to begin with?


Since it's referring to 5th freedom rights, it'll IST-KUL-SYD, IST-CGK-SYD, or IST-PVG-SYD, all of which would solve the (current) range issue that TK has (They simply does not have a plane right now that can fly that far).

Of course, some theoratical 5th freedom like IST-PVG-SYD would never happen (Seriously, there are people that actually believe China would give out fifth freedom rights to foreign carrier?)

Kadish wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.


I would think that they're waiting for a plane (i.e. A359ULR?) to actually operate the route non-stop? One-stop would greatly reduced its advantage as a super-connector anyway. There's no point for people to go, let say, SYD-CGK-IST-Europe when they can go with existing ME3 services, SQ via SIN, CX via HKG, etc.

Kadish wrote:
Any chance another airline could open the route from europe like in Fra/Ams/Mad...-Syd?


You referring to non-stops? With what plane?


Sure non stop... with a 359 or 789...


Umm...about the only plane that can (theoretically) fly it is A359ULR, and most likely has to be in fairly low density cabin layout (Either that or cargo payload restrictions). The simple answer is no. (BTW 789 won't even come close to flying that far).
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:06 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Honestly Turkey-Australia flights are overdue. If TK can get fifth freedom rights to make it a one-stop flight they are golden. The demand is there just for Istanbul. Add in the potential market share from a route like PVG-SYD or KUL-SYD or CGK-SYD and the nearby Balkan populations of Australia and the connection possibilities TK offers and you have yourself a big presence in Australia.

So you're saying people will actually fly KUL/CGK/PVG-IST-SYD? When all of those cities are already only 8 hours flight time from Sydney to begin with?


IST-KUL/CGK/wherever-SYD. Kinda like QF's SYD-LAX-JFK or BA's LHR-SIN-SYD.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
SonOfABeech
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:17 pm

If they can't do it nonstop, why bother? And the 789/359 are probably one or two tweaks/PIPs away from being able to do it in a configuration TK might be interested in.
 
jsfr
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:27 pm

This will be extremely successful, extremely.
1) A fairly high O&D traffic from IST (20 Million inhabitants) to SYD/MEL (full of Turkish Expats), enough on its own
2) Tk flies to more European destinations - way more - by a mile than anyone else, this would triple the number of destinations served one-stop from OZ
3) The Geography - IST is on the way from most European destinations to OZ. None of the other European hubs are. If I want to fly put of Europe to OZ (which I do often) I always stat going in the wrong direction (west) to a Hub (FRA/CDG/AMS/LHR/etc.) which is quite a bit of backtracking so added flight time
4) One short and one very long flight is much more relaxing than two long flights - see the PER-LHR thread, you always end up in a zombie state, the worst is to get to that state where time no longer matters much, and hten have to come out of that before going back into that state again.
5) TK is a great airline - always very highly rated in Skytrax for ECONOMY. Much better experience then packémín Emirates and indeible food Etihad.
6) TK tends to be as cheap, if not cheaper than the ME3 for lots of lights

Points 3 & 5 above are more than enough to get me on that flight very soon after it starts! Point 4 has been debated for a long time, its up to individual preference, bu I think there are definitely enough of us to sell the option...

I think it will happen in 2019 as soon as the Airport is up and running. Moving home airport and starting a new continent the same quarter is probably a bit much even for TK....
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:02 pm

jsfr wrote:
This will be extremely successful, extremely.

Totally agreed. This route will be a money maker for TK from day 1.

Some people argue that TK can opt for a one stop service to SYD instead of a direct flight. I have always opposed that in Turkish Aviation thread. Why TK not use its geographical advantage and make a game changer from the beginning. This is not a Latin America service to BOG or CCS, SYD is the battle ground of best of the best. You have to start the route with a difference that your best competitors can not do at all.
The future is in the skies.
 
jsfr
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:10 pm

Well said TK105

I forgot to add point 7) Any excuse at all to use the TK lounge in IST (assuming the new one will be as good as the existing) :)
 
YYZLGA
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:07 pm

jsfr wrote:
This will be extremely successful, extremely.
1) A fairly high O&D traffic from IST (20 Million inhabitants) to SYD/MEL (full of Turkish Expats), enough on its own
2) Tk flies to more European destinations - way more - by a mile than anyone else, this would triple the number of destinations served one-stop from OZ
3) The Geography - IST is on the way from most European destinations to OZ. None of the other European hubs are. If I want to fly put of Europe to OZ (which I do often) I always stat going in the wrong direction (west) to a Hub (FRA/CDG/AMS/LHR/etc.) which is quite a bit of backtracking so added flight time
4) One short and one very long flight is much more relaxing than two long flights - see the PER-LHR thread, you always end up in a zombie state, the worst is to get to that state where time no longer matters much, and hten have to come out of that before going back into that state again.
5) TK is a great airline - always very highly rated in Skytrax for ECONOMY. Much better experience then packémín Emirates and indeible food Etihad.
6) TK tends to be as cheap, if not cheaper than the ME3 for lots of lights


Exactly. You said much more clearly what I was trying to say above.

Even if SYD isn't quite feasible with the 789 at an acceptable payload, there's no reason why MEL shouldn't be feasible. It's not much further than LHR-PER, and there are a lot more alternates available for flight planning. SYD seems to get most of the attention in Australian international aviation, but MEL isn't much smaller as a market.

Australia (now excepting PER) has never had a one-stop option to secondary European cities. TK would be the only airline that could offer that. That's a gigantic competitive advantage.
 
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:30 pm

TK105 wrote:
I think we will see it by 2019 or most probably by 2020 when 789 and 359 join TK fleet. I not only expect IST-SYD and IST-MEL but also IST-PER as well when the flight rights granted.

Either of those airframes. However, I do not expect it to be the first set of flights for TK with either airframe.

Doesn't Australia require a first flight to another city?

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NTLDaz
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:30 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
jsfr wrote:
This will be extremely successful, extremely.
1) A fairly high O&D traffic from IST (20 Million inhabitants) to SYD/MEL (full of Turkish Expats), enough on its own
2) Tk flies to more European destinations - way more - by a mile than anyone else, this would triple the number of destinations served one-stop from OZ
3) The Geography - IST is on the way from most European destinations to OZ. None of the other European hubs are. If I want to fly put of Europe to OZ (which I do often) I always stat going in the wrong direction (west) to a Hub (FRA/CDG/AMS/LHR/etc.) which is quite a bit of backtracking so added flight time
4) One short and one very long flight is much more relaxing than two long flights - see the PER-LHR thread, you always end up in a zombie state, the worst is to get to that state where time no longer matters much, and hten have to come out of that before going back into that state again.
5) TK is a great airline - always very highly rated in Skytrax for ECONOMY. Much better experience then packémín Emirates and indeible food Etihad.
6) TK tends to be as cheap, if not cheaper than the ME3 for lots of lights


Exactly. You said much more clearly what I was trying to say above.

Even if SYD isn't quite feasible with the 789 at an acceptable payload, there's no reason why MEL shouldn't be feasible. It's not much further than LHR-PER, and there are a lot more alternates available for flight planning. SYD seems to get most of the attention in Australian international aviation, but MEL isn't much smaller as a market.

Australia (now excepting PER) has never had a one-stop option to secondary European cities. TK would be the only airline that could offer that. That's a gigantic competitive advantage.


Whilst Melbourne is not a much smaller market in terms of population it is substantially smaller for overseas arrivals into Australia - source ABS.
 
YYZLGA
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:36 pm

NTLDaz wrote:
Whilst Melbourne is not a much smaller market in terms of population it is substantially smaller for overseas arrivals into Australia - source ABS.


True, but at least part of that is likely due to the wider array of flights available to SYD.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:15 am

YYZLGA wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Whilst Melbourne is not a much smaller market in terms of population it is substantially smaller for overseas arrivals into Australia - source ABS.


True, but at least part of that is likely due to the wider array of flights available to SYD.


Chicken and the egg. The main reason for the wider array of flights is that is where more people want to go. There are some places where Melbourne would have higher demand but overall more overseas tourists want to come to Sydney.

If a hypothetical TK flight was going to be mainly reliant on outbound Australian traffic or O and D Melbourne would be as feasible as Sydney but I guess it would also rely on other European connections which would likely favour Sydney.

To paraphrase Tim Clarke ' Sydney is a gold mine for EK and Melbourne does very well '.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:42 am

NTLDaz wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Whilst Melbourne is not a much smaller market in terms of population it is substantially smaller for overseas arrivals into Australia - source ABS.


True, but at least part of that is likely due to the wider array of flights available to SYD.


Chicken and the egg. The main reason for the wider array of flights is that is where more people want to go. There are some places where Melbourne would have higher demand but overall more overseas tourists want to come to Sydney.

If a hypothetical TK flight was going to be mainly reliant on outbound Australian traffic or O and D Melbourne would be as feasible as Sydney but I guess it would also rely on other European connections which would likely favour Sydney.

To paraphrase Tim Clarke ' Sydney is a gold mine for EK and Melbourne does very well '.


For the most part, SYD has more higher yielding traffic than MEL, which is is a significant part driven my the international finance sector which is larger in the Harbour City.

SYD has been the main gateway for a long time, which had many advantages for a long time due to having an airport that was capable of handing larger jet aircraft at a time that MEL couldn’t. Having the sole flag carrier based out of SYD has also seen a lot of benefits for that city.

Over the past 20 years though things have certainly changed significantly in many ways. MEL is now a city that has actually outperformed SYD in terms of pax growth for quite some time, fueled by increased business and population drivers. It is a major global player in the superannuation, education, health, R&D, and technology fields, along with having a significantly increased international tourism industry.

In terms of Turkish diaspora, MEL and SYD are both the same ballpark from what I have seen, so that will be healthy whichever way they turn.

It’s not as simple as saying that SYD is dominant, as it depends on the specific market in question :)
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 172
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:30 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:

True, but at least part of that is likely due to the wider array of flights available to SYD.


Chicken and the egg. The main reason for the wider array of flights is that is where more people want to go. There are some places where Melbourne would have higher demand but overall more overseas tourists want to come to Sydney.

If a hypothetical TK flight was going to be mainly reliant on outbound Australian traffic or O and D Melbourne would be as feasible as Sydney but I guess it would also rely on other European connections which would likely favour Sydney.

To paraphrase Tim Clarke ' Sydney is a gold mine for EK and Melbourne does very well '.


For the most part, SYD has more higher yielding traffic than MEL, which is is a significant part driven my the international finance sector which is larger in the Harbour City.

SYD has been the main gateway for a long time, which had many advantages for a long time due to having an airport that was capable of handing larger jet aircraft at a time that MEL couldn’t. Having the sole flag carrier based out of SYD has also seen a lot of benefits for that city.

Over the past 20 years though things have certainly changed significantly in many ways. MEL is now a city that has actually outperformed SYD in terms of pax growth for quite some time, fueled by increased business and population drivers. It is a major global player in the superannuation, education, health, R&D, and technology fields, along with having a significantly increased international tourism industry.

In terms of Turkish diaspora, MEL and SYD are both the same ballpark from what I have seen, so that will be healthy whichever way they turn.

It’s not as simple as saying that SYD is dominant, as it depends on the specific market in question :)


All valid points and as you would notice in my post I mentioned that some places MEL would have the advantage.
 
Swadian
Posts: 363
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:56 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:53 pm

If TK orders the 778 now, couldn't that aircraft do it?
Inland Streamliner
 
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mafaky
Posts: 495
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2015 9:04 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:31 pm

Swadian wrote:
If TK orders the 778 now, couldn't that aircraft do it?


Yes, it should and w/o any low density scenario, I guess. But the availability of 778 is "light years ahead"! :?
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
kaitak
Posts: 9445
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:59 pm

mafaky wrote:
Swadian wrote:
If TK orders the 778 now, couldn't that aircraft do it?


Yes, it should and w/o any low density scenario, I guess. But the availability of 778 is "light years ahead"! :?


Not necessarily; what if some of the ME3 (e.g. Etihad) cancel some of their 778 orders? And since they come from the same line, some 779 production slots could be converted to 778s (don't know how much lead in time is required for this?)
 
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flyingclrs727
Posts: 2014
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:38 pm

qf002 wrote:
SYD-IST is 200nm further than PER-LHR which seems to be at the limit for a low-density 789. I'm hopeful that TK can find a way to make it work but it might be a push too far without a proper ULH aircraft.

The latest chatter was of a flight via SE Asia but I can't see that being a huge success.


I don't think the passengers TK is after traveling between southeastern Europe and Australia are going to be willing to pay premium prices to fly through IST when they can already fly through DXB, DOH,
AUH, and SIN.
 
Bhoy
Posts: 129
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:50 pm

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Doesn't Australia require a first flight to another city?

Lightsaber
surely not, given the maiden A380 commercial flight?
 
directorguy
Posts: 1265
Joined: Mon Jul 28, 2008 10:58 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:04 pm

What if TK were to stopover in MCT, or CMB, or MAA? How likely are they to stopover that doesn't have a nonstop down under so as not to get into the highly competitive SE Asia-Oz market?
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 716
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:46 am

jsfr wrote:
This will be extremely successful, extremely.
6) TK tends to be as cheap, if not cheaper than the ME3 for lots of lights


Given any IST-SYD non-stop will be an ultra long haul route, the trip costs are going to be significantly higher than a flight operated by EK/QR/EY/SQ/CX et al from SYD to their respective hubs. So TK is going to need to charge a premium to recoup the higher trip costs...
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_789
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2637
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:50 am

directorguy wrote:
What if TK were to stopover in MCT, or CMB, or MAA? How likely are they to stopover that doesn't have a nonstop down under so as not to get into the highly competitive SE Asia-Oz market?
That's a question if Turkey is to get 5th liberty traffic for TK between some attractive airport with a potentially profitable demand for non-stop to SYD.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
TG788
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Is IST-SYD next?

Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:08 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Of course, some theoratical 5th freedom like IST-PVG-SYD would never happen (Seriously, there are people that actually believe China would give out fifth freedom rights to foreign carrier?)


Some exist already. EY has 5th freedom rights on PEK-NGO and PK for PEK-NRT. DL has PVG-NRT and KQ operate CAN-BKK.

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