Ab345 wrote:IMHO Boeing has 3 things going for them right now:
*A higher production rate that allows them to secure future deliveries . (Clearing of the backlog is helping a lot)
*Better pricing than past 787 campaigns
*Seizing the opportunity of the change of leadership at Airbus. Leahy out of the way is a big plus for them.
After having their "guns" full and ready to shoot, they found the easiest targets (AA was not difficult to secure, HA feeling awkward as the sole 338 customer) and secured the deals. Congrats to them and well done. Both companies have amazing planes on offer and as always some you loose, some you win. Personally I don't believe D7 is that easy to flip, would sure make huge headlines (and huge bonuses to the Boeing guy that secures that) but as others before have stated, the A359 was an oddball in the current fleet plans. The 251t A339 should be the best option for them.
D7/AirAsiaX won't be easy to flip. But not impossible. Both vendors will have to earn this order. By my estimation, Boeing will have to discount an extra $1.5 million per aircraft to overcome the advantage of already flying A330s.
The advantage to Boeing of winning this order is:
1. More aircraft sold to pay off 787 development costs.
2. Ruins the A330NEO financing market.
I do not believe Boeing will bid at a loss. I also do not believe A330NEO launch pricing is as good as today's price.
Airbus is late delivering and that opens up contract escape clauses.
Both vendors will have to win this order. Considering how agressive GE has been, that could be the tipping factor.
Either side could win this decision. AirAsiaX cannot lose rebidding this order. All terms are up for negotiation. Let us see how this goes.
But as far as I can tell, Boeing has substantially reduced the production cost difference between the 789 and A339. Boeing has removed the delivery timeline advantage of the A339. So today's bid is under different terms than the launch bid.