MapleLeaf789
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United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:50 pm

I noticed this piece in Flight Global this morning about United's plans for Dulles.

I have been travelling from Toronto to Sao Paulo over the past year. I fly direct on Air Canada but check connections too. United via IAD frequently comes up.

Just wondering if there could be an appetite for more South American connectivity through IAD? As well, liberalized agreements between Brazil and the U.S. could inspire increased flights?

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... es-447820/
http://www.flydulles.com/sites/default/ ... b2018a.jpg
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flyguy84
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:52 pm

IAD focuses more on O&D so as not to canibalize EWR traffic flows. You’ll likely see Dulles grow more domestically to connect the dots to Smaller and mid-size cities to feed their existing international flights.
SFO
 
NZ321
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:04 pm

EWR experiences quite significant delays and congestion around New York and is a clear destination - origin market with slot pressure. So why shouldn't Dulles grab a larger slice of the connecting international market?
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FlyHossD
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:20 pm

NZ321 wrote:
EWR experiences quite significant delays and congestion around New York and is a clear destination - origin market with slot pressure. So why shouldn't Dulles grab a larger slice of the connecting international market?


"...slot pressure"?

The FAA has removed slots for EWR - thus the return of delays (just like before the slots were implemented!).
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:52 pm

NZ321 wrote:
So why shouldn't Dulles grab a larger slice of the connecting international market?


Because UA makes more money with a larger international presence at EWR than at IAD. These UA hubs have co-existed for almost a decade and the a.netter idea in which UA desperately needs to expand IAD as a reliever hub for EWR hasn't happened. It is what it is.
 
jplatts
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:59 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So why shouldn't Dulles grab a larger slice of the connecting international market?


Because UA makes more money with a larger international presence at EWR than at IAD. These UA hubs have co-existed for almost a decade and the a.netter idea in which UA desperately needs to expand IAD as a reliever hub for EWR hasn't happened. It is what it is.


UA's EWR hub was actually acquired through the UA-CO merger, whereas UA had a hub at IAD prior to the UA-CO merger.
 
CapitalAvGeek
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:06 pm

I brought this topic up yesterday in the DC area thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382399&start=150
 
evank516
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:50 pm

IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.
 
IADCA
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:02 pm

evank516 wrote:
IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.


Honestly, it's not a great connecting facility, for a couple reasons. One is that C/D is a dump. I say this as a DC-based UA mid-tier elite, so I see the place entirely too much. If you have anything more than a very short connection, it's an unpleasant place to wait for a flight (assuming no lounge access). The second is that most flights to the Southeast (at least presently) are on RJs, and most mainline to RJ connections on UA at IAD involve a terminal switch. Depending on which gates you're coming from in the C/D concourse, that can be a surprising amount of hassle.

On the plus side, it has a lot of runway capacity and the ATC staff there do a great job in keeping everything moving well, so it's a lot less delay-prone than some other East Coast hubs.
 
ual763
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:12 pm

I just wish we’d get an updated terminal like the A/B concourse. C/D needs to go.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:16 pm

IADCA wrote:
evank516 wrote:
IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.


Honestly, it's not a great connecting facility, for a couple reasons. One is that C/D is a dump. I say this as a DC-based UA mid-tier elite, so I see the place entirely too much. If you have anything more than a very short connection, it's an unpleasant place to wait for a flight (assuming no lounge access). The second is that most flights to the Southeast (at least presently) are on RJs, and most mainline to RJ connections on UA at IAD involve a terminal switch. Depending on which gates you're coming from in the C/D concourse, that can be a surprising amount of hassle.

On the plus side, it has a lot of runway capacity and the ATC staff there do a great job in keeping everything moving well, so it's a lot less delay-prone than some other East Coast hubs.

The weekend warrior that takes is family from Vermont to Tampa doesn't care about lounge access, just ask Southwest.
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evank516
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:18 pm

IADCA wrote:
evank516 wrote:
IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.


Honestly, it's not a great connecting facility, for a couple reasons. One is that C/D is a dump. I say this as a DC-based UA mid-tier elite, so I see the place entirely too much. If you have anything more than a very short connection, it's an unpleasant place to wait for a flight (assuming no lounge access). The second is that most flights to the Southeast (at least presently) are on RJs, and most mainline to RJ connections on UA at IAD involve a terminal switch. Depending on which gates you're coming from in the C/D concourse, that can be a surprising amount of hassle.

On the plus side, it has a lot of runway capacity and the ATC staff there do a great job in keeping everything moving well, so it's a lot less delay-prone than some other East Coast hubs.


The reality is that every hub has it's pros and cons. In ATL you have to switch terminals for mainline to RJ connections as well though DL seems to be integrating mainline into their DL Connection gates. The runway capacity is a big plus for connections, and considering it is the last airport in the busy Boston-Washington Corridor that's a plus to have. UA is very heavy on RJs anyway though, probably more than any of the other majors in the US. The other plus is the O&D that is associated with having a hub at a DC Airport. All about the money, however and if UA saw that as a money making opportunity they would have done it.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:28 pm

The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.
 
IADCA
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:32 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
IADCA wrote:
evank516 wrote:
IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.


Honestly, it's not a great connecting facility, for a couple reasons. One is that C/D is a dump. I say this as a DC-based UA mid-tier elite, so I see the place entirely too much. If you have anything more than a very short connection, it's an unpleasant place to wait for a flight (assuming no lounge access). The second is that most flights to the Southeast (at least presently) are on RJs, and most mainline to RJ connections on UA at IAD involve a terminal switch. Depending on which gates you're coming from in the C/D concourse, that can be a surprising amount of hassle.

On the plus side, it has a lot of runway capacity and the ATC staff there do a great job in keeping everything moving well, so it's a lot less delay-prone than some other East Coast hubs.

The weekend warrior that takes is family from Vermont to Tampa doesn't care about lounge access, just ask Southwest.


And at least some of them do care about extremely crowded gate areas in which they have to keep their family within 4 feet lest they vanish into a crowd of aggressive DC fat fiftysomethings yelling into cellphones.
 
nikeherc
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:33 pm

evank516 wrote:
IADCA wrote:
evank516 wrote:
IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.


In ATL you have to switch terminals for mainline to RJ connections as well though DL seems to be integrating mainline into their DL Connection gates. .


Actually, in ATL you only have to switch terminals for international connections. You may switch concourses, which are all behind security, even for mainline to mainline connections. At ATL, that's not a big deal.
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evank516
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:41 pm

nikeherc wrote:
evank516 wrote:
IADCA wrote:

In ATL you have to switch terminals for mainline to RJ connections as well though DL seems to be integrating mainline into their DL Connection gates. .


Actually, in ATL you only have to switch terminals for international connections. You may switch concourses, which are all behind security, even for mainline to mainline connections. At ATL, that's not a big deal.


Sorry, I meant concourses, my bad. Either way you're still behind security to make those connections in IAD too. It's concourse to concourse.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:53 pm

jplatts wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So why shouldn't Dulles grab a larger slice of the connecting international market?


Because UA makes more money with a larger international presence at EWR than at IAD. These UA hubs have co-existed for almost a decade and the a.netter idea in which UA desperately needs to expand IAD as a reliever hub for EWR hasn't happened. It is what it is.


UA's EWR hub was actually acquired through the UA-CO merger, whereas UA had a hub at IAD prior to the UA-CO merger.


Right. Ever since the merger the a.net idea is floated which IAD needs to expand because of constraints at EWR. Yet this never really happened.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:59 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.


METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.
Last edited by izbtmnhd on Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
timeless159
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:05 pm

It's not popular to defend the C/D terminal here, but it isn't terrible and does a few things better than some terminals. It seems to have more bathrooms per gate than almost any terminal I've been to. Even during the banks, there is always seating available. C to D connections are very simple. Unlike mosk JFK terminals, there are places to sit where you can't hear CNN. (I can't stand being forced to listen to cable news.) The staff do a good job keeping the seating areas and bathrooms clean. Maybe I'm just too used to the C/D terminal, but I have no trouble relaxing there between flights.

Terminal C to Terminal A connections require 7 escalators, a train and two moving walkways, but that isn't really a problem with the C/D terminal. And overall getting too/from C/D can be confusing if you don't know the airport well, but a new terminal won't change that. Although a new terminal could be better integrated with a the train.

For IAD (and most hubs on the east coast besides DCA and LGA), airspace seems to be a more limiting factor than arrival rate. So changing something like IAH-EWR-PVD to IAH-IAD-PVD might actually make congestion worse because the routing used for IAD-PVD is more saturated than IAH-EWR.
 
flyguy84
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:09 pm

EWR will never be downsized in favor of IAD or anywhere else. United will not open up room for other carriers to grow and steal market share. This is exactly what happened during Smiseks disastrous tenure as CEO.
SFO
 
ual763
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:17 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.


METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It will definitely be a game changer for Dulles.

Distance wise, it's not that much more from IAD to DC on the METRO. Considering at BWI, one has to exit the airport, wait for a bus to take you over to the AMTRAK/MARC station, then wait for the next AMTRAK/MARC, then take the 30-35 minute train ride to union station, then go down a few levels to the METRO station underneath Union Station, wait for the next available METRO, then take the 5-10 minute METRO ride to the mall.

Whereas, with the future METRO service from IAD, one will simply walk through the underground walkway from the airport exit to the METRO station, and be able to sit in the same seat and arrive at the mall in about 50minutes. In the end, with all said, it will be about the same amount of time (maybe even a little bit quicker, considering all of the connections at BWI), with not very much hassle.
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timeless159
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:24 pm

A lot of people live and work near those 15 stops. It will be a game changer. For many people it will make IAD the most convenient. And for many more it'll make the difference in transit times negligible.
 
blockski
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:24 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
EWR will never be downsized in favor of IAD or anywhere else. United will not open up room for other carriers to grow and steal market share. This is exactly what happened during Smiseks disastrous tenure as CEO.


I don’t think anyone is suggesting that EWR be downsized. Rather, UA has choices of what kind of traffic they flow over each hub. And for more of their north-south domestic traffic on the east coast, they could choose to flow it over IAD instead of EWR.

The reasons to do so would be because of capacity and congestion, fitting with UA's goals to increase domestic connectivity as well.

It’s essentially adding a complimentary role to IAD's current internationala gateway hub. The commentary here notes that UA runs four banks at IAD, only one of which (the PM European bank) uses all of their gates. They could fill out those other banks as well with additional domestic traffic without taking anything away from EWR and instead making it the place for that net growth Scott Kirby outlined in UA's strategy last year.
 
IADCA
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:25 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.


METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It's going to be a big change, but not vis a vis BWI. Those two are just too far apart. But it will be a pretty big change for people living along the Orange/Silver corridor with respect to the IAD/DCA decision. For anyone living in Arlington and Falls Church along the Orange, you lose a train change at Rosslyn to the infrequent Blue service to DCA and get a single seat to IAD. Don't laugh - we're talking 100,000 people or so in that corridor in a county with a median income well above $100k for Arlington alone.
 
flyguy84
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:28 pm

blockski wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
EWR will never be downsized in favor of IAD or anywhere else. United will not open up room for other carriers to grow and steal market share. This is exactly what happened during Smiseks disastrous tenure as CEO.


I don’t think anyone is suggesting that EWR be downsized. Rather, UA has choices of what kind of traffic they flow over each hub. And for more of their north-south domestic traffic on the east coast, they could choose to flow it over IAD instead of EWR.

The reasons to do so would be because of capacity and congestion, fitting with UA's goals to increase domestic connectivity as well.

It’s essentially adding a complimentary role to IAD's current internationala gateway hub. The commentary here notes that UA runs four banks at IAD, only one of which (the PM European bank) uses all of their gates. They could fill out those other banks as well with additional domestic traffic without taking anything away from EWR and instead making it the place for that net growth Scott Kirby outlined in UA's strategy last year.

If you run N/S connections over IAD instead of EWR it would most certainly lead to downsizing and cuts to flights. You can’t run indentical traffic flows over both airports, regardless of the type as they would cannibalize each other. The only way to reduce congestion and capacity issues at EWR would be to re-slot the airport. United isn’t going to make any service changes and allow someone else to add more flights in lieu of those cuts.
SFO
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:28 pm

ual763 wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.


METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It will definitely be a game changer for Dulles.

Distance wise, it's not that much more from IAD to DC on the METRO. Considering at BWI, one has to exit the airport, wait for a bus to take you over to the AMTRAK/MARC station, then wait for the next AMTRAK/MARC, then take the 30-35 minute train ride to union station, then go down a few levels to the METRO station underneath Union Station, wait for the next available METRO, then take the 5-10 minute METRO ride to the mall.

Whereas, with the future METRO service from IAD, one will simply walk through the underground walkway from the airport exit to the METRO station, and be able to sit in the same seat and arrive at the mall in about 50minutes. In the end, with all said, it will be about the same amount of time (maybe even a little bit quicker, considering all of the connections at BWI), with not very much hassle.


I agree same seat service is nice but it will take longer than 50 minutes. Walkway is no bargain with baggage, way longer than those at DCA. And because Orange/Blue/Silver share the same track waiting for a train can be quite long in non-peak hours and weekends, easily over 20 minutes at times. I wont even get into service issues that will delay you further. Just be mindful that METRO ridership has dropped 15% over the last five years while the vast majority of American heavy rail systems see increased ridership. There's a reason why.

I don't see this situation being any more convenient than going to BWI.

This Silver Line was built for Ashburn/Reston commuters. Dulles was just an added benefit.
Last edited by izbtmnhd on Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ncflyer
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:37 pm

I’m just piling on but for our nations capital what an embarrassment of an airport. Just flew IAD to PEK via C terminal. One airport is a showcase saying this country is modern and going places— and it’s building a ground up reliever airport to boot— and the other capital airport is a bus station with ample restrooms according to the prior post. Culture shock to see both on one trip, how the bus station has been tolerated for so many years is a total mystery.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:41 pm

IADCA wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.


METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It's going to be a big change, but not vis a vis BWI. Those two are just too far apart. But it will be a pretty big change for people living along the Orange/Silver corridor with respect to the IAD/DCA decision. For anyone living in Arlington and Falls Church along the Orange, you lose a train change at Rosslyn to the infrequent Blue service to DCA and get a single seat to IAD. Don't laugh - we're talking 100,000 people or so in that corridor in a county with a median income well above $100k for Arlington alone.


If you take Orange it's not a single seat you have to get off at East Falls Church and wait for the Silver.

Peak hours, no big deal. Non-peak it's about as bad as the Blue transfer.
 
IADCA
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:49 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
IADCA wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It's going to be a big change, but not vis a vis BWI. Those two are just too far apart. But it will be a pretty big change for people living along the Orange/Silver corridor with respect to the IAD/DCA decision. For anyone living in Arlington and Falls Church along the Orange, you lose a train change at Rosslyn to the infrequent Blue service to DCA and get a single seat to IAD. Don't laugh - we're talking 100,000 people or so in that corridor in a county with a median income well above $100k for Arlington alone.


If you take Orange it's not a single seat you have to get off at East Falls Church and wait for the Silver.

Peak hours, no big deal. Non-peak it's about as bad as the Blue transfer.


Then get on a Silver line train instead, like any sane person would do. They're on the same tracks all the way through Arlington to East Falls. But you know that already, clearly. Really, it's easy. It's a single seat ride for anyone who wants one for any Orange/Silver station between Stadium-Armory and EFC, not that that's really relevant except between Court House and EFC.
 
dmstorm22
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:56 pm

jplatts wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So why shouldn't Dulles grab a larger slice of the connecting international market?


Because UA makes more money with a larger international presence at EWR than at IAD. These UA hubs have co-existed for almost a decade and the a.netter idea in which UA desperately needs to expand IAD as a reliever hub for EWR hasn't happened. It is what it is.


UA's EWR hub was actually acquired through the UA-CO merger, whereas UA had a hub at IAD prior to the UA-CO merger.


That's why the qualifier of 'for almost a decade' was added.

If there was a real risk in having them so close to each other in the NE corridor, UA likely would have acted by now.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:02 pm

IADCA wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
IADCA wrote:

It's going to be a big change, but not vis a vis BWI. Those two are just too far apart. But it will be a pretty big change for people living along the Orange/Silver corridor with respect to the IAD/DCA decision. For anyone living in Arlington and Falls Church along the Orange, you lose a train change at Rosslyn to the infrequent Blue service to DCA and get a single seat to IAD. Don't laugh - we're talking 100,000 people or so in that corridor in a county with a median income well above $100k for Arlington alone.


If you take Orange it's not a single seat you have to get off at East Falls Church and wait for the Silver.

Peak hours, no big deal. Non-peak it's about as bad as the Blue transfer.


Then get on a Silver line train instead, like any sane person would do. They're on the same tracks all the way through Arlington to East Falls. But you know that already, clearly. Really, it's easy. It's a single seat ride for anyone who wants one for any Orange/Silver station between Stadium-Armory and EFC, not that that's really relevant except between Court House and EFC.


I know you can wait, but then you wait. Considering National is much closer to Arlington, what's the advantage to Dulles except for the transfer? The Rosslyn transfer isn't that difficult and the walkway from the Parking Garage at Dulles is wayyyyyyyy longer than the walkways at National. Not to mention after security you have to take another IAD train or mobile lounge. METRO fare will be always cheaper to National too due to the silly fare system WMATA uses. I don't see the great advantage here. IAD over BWI from Arlington, sure I see it.

Also if something happens to METRO or your flight is delayed to after their operating hours, the Lyft/Uber ride is much cheaper to Arlington from DCA.
Last edited by izbtmnhd on Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:03 pm

If IAD were virtually anywhere other than an airport for DC, it would have been axed by UA a while ago. EWR is the primary hub for the northeast.

That said, DC is such a rich source of high yielding international traffic that they wont let it all go. Instead, they will focus on the O&D aspect of DC and tailor the flights to what the local market demands. IAD is never going to be the major connector that EWR is, but I also dont think its going away because the market is too valuable.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
ScottB
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:05 pm

timeless159 wrote:
A lot of people live and work near those 15 stops. It will be a game changer. For many people it will make IAD the most convenient. And for many more it'll make the difference in transit times negligible.


It's not going to make a meaningful difference to passenger traffic at IAD, apart from perhaps drawing more ULCC passengers. The demographic which is willing to ride on the Silver Line for an hour from the District and then hike a quarter-mile through a tunnel to the terminal isn't the demographic United wants to serve. Even from Tysons the travel time versus going to DCA will be a wash and the passenger experience is just so much easier at DCA.

ual763 wrote:
Distance wise, it's not that much more from IAD to DC on the METRO. Considering at BWI, one has to exit the airport, wait for a bus to take you over to the AMTRAK/MARC station, then wait for the next AMTRAK/MARC, then take the 30-35 minute train ride to union station, then go down a few levels to the METRO station underneath Union Station, wait for the next available METRO, then take the 5-10 minute METRO ride to the mall.

Whereas, with the future METRO service from IAD, one will simply walk through the underground walkway from the airport exit to the METRO station, and be able to sit in the same seat and arrive at the mall in about 50minutes.


Except that the real competition for IAD is with DCA, not BWI.

MapleLeaf789 wrote:
I noticed this piece in Flight Global this morning about United's plans for Dulles.


Anything said about UA's plans for IAD is basically worthless unless/until they commit to the replacement for C/D. Otherwise it's all just talk without any real long-term confidence.
 
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william
Posts: 3151
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:08 pm

This.............

"One big question facing Dulles is whether MWAA and United can reach an agreement on a new concourse C/D to replace the temporary facilities that the airline has used since the mid-1980s."

Wow, I remember being excited about this concourse when it opened in the 80s!
 
blockski
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:10 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
blockski wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
EWR will never be downsized in favor of IAD or anywhere else. United will not open up room for other carriers to grow and steal market share. This is exactly what happened during Smiseks disastrous tenure as CEO.


I don’t think anyone is suggesting that EWR be downsized. Rather, UA has choices of what kind of traffic they flow over each hub. And for more of their north-south domestic traffic on the east coast, they could choose to flow it over IAD instead of EWR.

The reasons to do so would be because of capacity and congestion, fitting with UA's goals to increase domestic connectivity as well.

It’s essentially adding a complimentary role to IAD's current internationala gateway hub. The commentary here notes that UA runs four banks at IAD, only one of which (the PM European bank) uses all of their gates. They could fill out those other banks as well with additional domestic traffic without taking anything away from EWR and instead making it the place for that net growth Scott Kirby outlined in UA's strategy last year.

If you run N/S connections over IAD instead of EWR it would most certainly lead to downsizing and cuts to flights. You can’t run indentical traffic flows over both airports, regardless of the type as they would cannibalize each other. The only way to reduce congestion and capacity issues at EWR would be to re-slot the airport. United isn’t going to make any service changes and allow someone else to add more flights in lieu of those cuts.


This is delving into pointless pedantry, but since UA wants to grow domestically, they can focus that domestic growth on the east coast at IAD, particularly for connecting traffic. The net effect would be that IAD grows at a faster relative rate than EWR for those passengers. The strategy does not require removing any traffic from EWR at all.
 
global2
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:11 pm

[quote="MapleLeaf789"]I noticed this piece in Flight Global this morning about United's plans for Dulles.

I have been travelling from Toronto to Sao Paulo over the past year. I fly direct on Air Canada but check connections too. United via IAD frequently comes up.

Just wondering if there could be an appetite for more South American connectivity through IAD? As well, liberalized agreements between Brazil and the U.S. could inspire increased flights?


But wouldn't connecting from an international origin to an international destination at a U.S. airport be a huge hassle? Wouldn't you have to clear customs, claim your bags, and
check in all over again, at least on the way back from Sao Paolo?
 
IADCA
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:13 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
IADCA wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

If you take Orange it's not a single seat you have to get off at East Falls Church and wait for the Silver.

Peak hours, no big deal. Non-peak it's about as bad as the Blue transfer.


Then get on a Silver line train instead, like any sane person would do. They're on the same tracks all the way through Arlington to East Falls. But you know that already, clearly. Really, it's easy. It's a single seat ride for anyone who wants one for any Orange/Silver station between Stadium-Armory and EFC, not that that's really relevant except between Court House and EFC.


I know you can wait, but then you wait. Considering National is much closer to Arlington, what's the advantage to Dulles except for the transfer? The Rosslyn transfer isn't that difficult and the walkway from the Parking Garage at Dulles is wayyyyyyyy longer than the walkways at National. Not to mention after security you have to take another IAD train or mobile lounge. METRO fare will be always cheaper to National too due to the silly fare system WMATA uses. I don't see the great advantage here. IAD over BWI from Arlington, sure I see it.

Also if something happens to METRO, the Lyft ride is much cheaper to Arlington from DCA.


Have you ever waited for a Blue line train at Rosslyn? Sure, it's not a difficult transfer, but those trains often run only every 20-22 minutes off-peak. If you're coming from Ballston or Va Square, for example, your choice is a 10 minute ride on the O/S to Rosslyn (counting normal wait time for a train), followed by an uncertain transfer time at Rosslyn, followed by 10 more minutes on the Blue. Compare that to what would be 35 minutes or so to Dulles on the Silver. The two are pretty comparable to me.
 
blockski
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:15 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
ual763 wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:

METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It will definitely be a game changer for Dulles.

Distance wise, it's not that much more from IAD to DC on the METRO. Considering at BWI, one has to exit the airport, wait for a bus to take you over to the AMTRAK/MARC station, then wait for the next AMTRAK/MARC, then take the 30-35 minute train ride to union station, then go down a few levels to the METRO station underneath Union Station, wait for the next available METRO, then take the 5-10 minute METRO ride to the mall.

Whereas, with the future METRO service from IAD, one will simply walk through the underground walkway from the airport exit to the METRO station, and be able to sit in the same seat and arrive at the mall in about 50minutes. In the end, with all said, it will be about the same amount of time (maybe even a little bit quicker, considering all of the connections at BWI), with not very much hassle.


I agree same seat service is nice but it will take longer than 50 minutes. Walkway is no bargain with baggage, way longer than those at DCA. And because Orange/Blue/Silver share the same track waiting for a train can be quite long in non-peak hours and weekends, easily over 20 minutes at times. I wont even get into service issues that will delay you further. Just be mindful that METRO ridership has dropped 15% over the last five years while the vast majority of American heavy rail systems see increased ridership. There's a reason why.

I don't see this situation being any more convenient than going to BWI.

This Silver Line was built for Ashburn/Reston commuters. Dulles was just an added benefit.


The Silver Line will be a big change and advantage for IAD over BWI for DC based customers simply due to the much greater frequency of Metrorail service. MARC and Amtrak are not particularly frequent. Even on weekends, WMATA is much better.

Also, I don’t think it’s true that the vast majority of American transit systems have seen increased ridership in the last few years. WMATA’s decline is certainly exceptional and with an obvious cause: track work.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:57 pm

blockski wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
ual763 wrote:

It will definitely be a game changer for Dulles.

Distance wise, it's not that much more from IAD to DC on the METRO. Considering at BWI, one has to exit the airport, wait for a bus to take you over to the AMTRAK/MARC station, then wait for the next AMTRAK/MARC, then take the 30-35 minute train ride to union station, then go down a few levels to the METRO station underneath Union Station, wait for the next available METRO, then take the 5-10 minute METRO ride to the mall.

Whereas, with the future METRO service from IAD, one will simply walk through the underground walkway from the airport exit to the METRO station, and be able to sit in the same seat and arrive at the mall in about 50minutes. In the end, with all said, it will be about the same amount of time (maybe even a little bit quicker, considering all of the connections at BWI), with not very much hassle.


I agree same seat service is nice but it will take longer than 50 minutes. Walkway is no bargain with baggage, way longer than those at DCA. And because Orange/Blue/Silver share the same track waiting for a train can be quite long in non-peak hours and weekends, easily over 20 minutes at times. I wont even get into service issues that will delay you further. Just be mindful that METRO ridership has dropped 15% over the last five years while the vast majority of American heavy rail systems see increased ridership. There's a reason why.

I don't see this situation being any more convenient than going to BWI.

This Silver Line was built for Ashburn/Reston commuters. Dulles was just an added benefit.


The Silver Line will be a big change and advantage for IAD over BWI for DC based customers simply due to the much greater frequency of Metrorail service. MARC and Amtrak are not particularly frequent. Even on weekends, WMATA is much better.

Also, I don’t think it’s true that the vast majority of American transit systems have seen increased ridership in the last few years. WMATA’s decline is certainly exceptional and with an obvious cause: track work.


C'mon..lets not pretend it's 1990 or be a DC cheerleader about this. METROs reliability has been in question for several years now to a point where it garners national press. Extensive track work was the result of a ridership decline because people were dying on the system from fires and other loss of operational control issues. Not saying the system will ever come back but it's got a long way to go convince some people to ride again. Way different than what's going on in other cities where it's simply Uber/Lyft that is challenging mass transit and ridership is down much more on METRO than most other systems.
 
Flighty
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:08 pm

Until IAD catchment area can independently support great short haul ops, the natural feed for IAD hub long haul will be crippled. if DCA did not exist, IAD would be a tremendous asset. But it does
 
iyerhari
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:52 pm

Flighty wrote:
Until IAD catchment area can independently support great short haul ops, the natural feed for IAD hub long haul will be crippled. if DCA did not exist, IAD would be a tremendous asset. But it does

Bingo! DCA is tremendous and I must say the airport does a phenomenal job in managing traffic in such a small footprint. They have trans-border and pre-cleared flights to Canada and Caribbean and with just that they are able to get good passenger numbers. At the rate, I do not believe IAD will ever catch-up with DCA in terms of total pax. BWI is even farther than IAD in terms of overall passenger pax YOY.

One question to the group and maybe there is a history that I do not know. Isn't IAD overbuilt and has there ever been times historically when IAD total pax was ever > DCA. In my limited experience of traveling and following airlines for the past 12 years, I have always felt IAD is far overbuilt vs. DCA and DCA still does a commendable job.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7882
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:16 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
Flighty wrote:
Until IAD catchment area can independently support great short haul ops, the natural feed for IAD hub long haul will be crippled. if DCA did not exist, IAD would be a tremendous asset. But it does


The thing that will work in IAD’s favor over the next decade is that DCA will be basically static. In the past 10 years there have been two major rounds of slot divestures following the US-DL slot swap and US-AA merger, without which B6 and WN would both have a very limited presence at DCA. That has shifted a fair amount of domestic traffic, especially lower yielding and leisure traffic, from IAD or BWI to DCA. There won’t be more slots becoming available like this again in the foreseeable future. Similarly over the past 10 years there have been several beyond-perimeter exceptions granted which has hurt IAD’s natural monoply on beyond perimeter flying. It is not likely, albeit not impossible, that Congress will grant further beyond-perimeter exceptions. Therefore DCA has limited opportunities to continue to grow beyond upgauging. This naturally benefits IAD as future passenger growth will naturally have to move there. Population growth in the Dulles corridor will also benefit IAD. While they have had a rough decade, IMHO the next decade will be more successful.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
ScottB
Posts: 6640
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:30 pm

iyerhari wrote:
One question to the group and maybe there is a history that I do not know. Isn't IAD overbuilt and has there ever been times historically when IAD total pax was ever > DCA. In my limited experience of traveling and following airlines for the past 12 years, I have always felt IAD is far overbuilt vs. DCA and DCA still does a commendable job.


IAD traffic has actually been higher than DCA traffic for most of the past two decades. Only in 2014 did DCA surpass IAD for passenger traffic, almost entirely as a result of the divestiture of slots by AA/US to WN, B6 & VX in order for the AA-US merger to gain clearance.
 
iyerhari
Posts: 962
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:44 pm

ScottB wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
One question to the group and maybe there is a history that I do not know. Isn't IAD overbuilt and has there ever been times historically when IAD total pax was ever > DCA. In my limited experience of traveling and following airlines for the past 12 years, I have always felt IAD is far overbuilt vs. DCA and DCA still does a commendable job.


IAD traffic has actually been higher than DCA traffic for most of the past two decades. Only in 2014 did DCA surpass IAD for passenger traffic, almost entirely as a result of the divestiture of slots by AA/US to WN, B6 & VX in order for the AA-US merger to gain clearance.

Wow. Thank you and went thru the data and you are correct (not that I was doubting you but wanted to check for myself).

DCA IAD DCA-IAD
2011 18,823,094 23,211,856 (4,388,762)
2012 19,655,440 22,561,521 (2,906,081)
2013 20,415,085 21,947,065 (1,531,980)
2014 20,810,387 21,572,233 (761,846)
2015 23,039,429 21,650,546 1,388,883
2016 23,600,177 21,969,094 1,631,083
2017 23,928,248 22,892,504 1,035,744

The data speaks for itself. DCA gained from 2015 onwards and has been doing well but I had no idea that IAD was higher than DCA. Thank you.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3929
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:44 pm

IADCA wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
The Metro will increase it's viability as an O&D airport for folks visiting DC. Even more desirable as a long layover place. It's not going to be any bigger of a hassle than the train from BWI once it's done plus there's the Smithsonian Air and Space on site. MEM recently stated it wants IAD service. There's a possible new city from IAD.


METRO will not be a game changer. No express service. So it’s 15 stops to Foggy Bottom. You’ll have around 20 stops just to get to the Mall. Whereas Amtrak or MARC from BWI has three stops or less for Union Station. Union Station is a stones throw from all the tourist/business downtown DC areas.


It's going to be a big change, but not vis a vis BWI. Those two are just too far apart. But it will be a pretty big change for people living along the Orange/Silver corridor with respect to the IAD/DCA decision. For anyone living in Arlington and Falls Church along the Orange, you lose a train change at Rosslyn to the infrequent Blue service to DCA and get a single seat to IAD. Don't laugh - we're talking 100,000 people or so in that corridor in a county with a median income well above $100k for Arlington alone.

Yeah, because it takes $100K+ per year just to LIVE in the area...
 
tphuang
Posts: 3223
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:13 am

Just curious because I have been thinking that IAD would be a great place for B6 to expand in the future since it seems from the outside to have room for growth. How much gate space is available in the main terminal?
 
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mercure1
Posts: 4464
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:25 am

Current management wants to grow UAL.
Only hub that has some gates + excess rwy capacity is IAD. Makes sense.
mercure f-wtcc
 
CapitalAvGeek
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:45 am

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:04 am

tphuang wrote:
Just curious because I have been thinking that IAD would be a great place for B6 to expand in the future since it seems from the outside to have room for growth. How much gate space is available in the main terminal?

Dulles is more organized by concourses than by terminals because there is only the main terminal. Concourse C and D is used exclusively for UA. Concourse A is used for some United Express flights and many non star alliance international carriers. Concourse B is home to WN, AA, DL, B6 , AS and most Star Alliance cariers with a few exceptions. Concourse Z only has four gates, one used by Air Canada, one by Frontier and two others that are open.

JetBlue uses gate B70 primarily with B66 used once in a while. There is enough room for B6 to grow a medium amount and use these two gates to their full potential. Outside from that, B75 is open, B79 is open part of the day and the two extra gates in Concourse Z. Also, some of the international gates in A and B are open in the morning before all the international flights arrive. Given that B6 has lots of flights out of DCA with using only four gates, I think there is potential room for a focus city if JetBlue ever decides to expand.
 
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nikeson13
Posts: 221
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 5:35 am

Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:30 am

The future of IAD lies in a C/D rebuild from the ground up. If the terminal can become near a word-class terminal (in design) plus underground connections to landside and A/B (via walkway or train) it would give IAD the ability to become widely popular for both connections and O/D. UA/Others would be begging for a F/G to be built by 2030 if the C/D revamp plus better transit between terminals than the jetway shuttles happens.

But think about it: the whole East Coast is close to capacity: UA at EWR, DL at JFK+LGA, AA at JFK+LGA+DCA+PHL(still room to grow), B6 at JFK+BOS, WN at BWI. IAD is the only airport currently having a strategic advantage to grow and expand currently compared to other connecting AND O/D markets, and if I were management I would be pushing every bit of that to UA.
Last edited by nikeson13 on Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
Nikolas
 
jetero
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Re: United's Plans for Dulles

Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:30 am

evank516 wrote:
IAD would be good for North/South if UA ever decided to expand its presence in the Southeast at all. It's a good location for Northeast-Southeast connections.


Amen to that

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