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enilria
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OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:53 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

2O ADQ-AKK JUN 0.9>1.6 JUL 0.8>1.5 AUG 0.9>1.6 SEP 0.8>1.5 OCT 0.9>1.6 NOV 0.9>1.6 DEC 0.8>1.5
2O ADQ-KLN JUN 1.9>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3 OCT 1.9>3 NOV 1.9>3 DEC 1.8>3
2O ADQ-KOZ JUN 1.9>4 JUL 1.8>4 AUG 1.9>4 SEP 1.8>4 OCT 1.9>4 NOV 1.9>4 DEC 1.8>4

4B ABQ-CNM JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7
4B ABQ-SVC JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B AIA-CDR OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7
4B AIA-DEN OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7
4B ALS-DEN MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>4 SEP 0>4 OCT 0>4 NOV 0>4 DEC 0>4
4B ATL-MSL MAY 1.7>3 JUN 1.7>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
*4B BNA-MSL MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
4B CDR-DEN OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7 DEC 0>1.7
4B CEZ-DEN JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B CEZ-PHX JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
4B CNM-DFW JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
4B CVN-DFW JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B DDC-DEN JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B PDT-PDX JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B PHX-SOW JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
4B PHX-SVC JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0

AA CLT-STT NOV 0>0.9
AA CLT-SXM NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0.9>1.5
Suspended till March
*AA DFW-PLS DEC 0.2>0
No resumption shown
*AA MIA-OMA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
AA MIA-SJU AUG 6>5
AA MIA-STT NOV 3>2 DEC 4>3
AA MIA-SXM NOV 1.9>1.0 DEC 2>1.4

AC FLL-YUL NOV 2>3

AI SFO-DEL NOV 0.9>1.3 DEC 0.9>1.3

*AM MCO-MTY JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1

AS ANC-FAI DEC 8>7
AS ANC-ORD OCT 1.0>0.7
AS FLL-SFO NOV 1.0>0.5 DEC 2>1.0
*AS PDX-BZN NOV 0.1>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
AS PDX-DAL NOV 1.1>2 DEC 1.0>2
Discontinued through March 2019
*AS PDX-DTW NOV 0.9>0 DEC 1.0>0
AS PDX-FCA OCT 1.0>0
AS SAN-SMF DEC 4>3
AS SEA-HNL DEC 2>3
AS SEA-MSP SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
AS SEA-PDX SEP 26>22 OCT 26>23
AS SEA-PHX SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
AS SEA-YEG SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
AS SEA-YKM SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
AS SNA-STS NOV 1.9>1.0 DEC 2>1.0

*AV BOS-SAL AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.6 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6
*AV MCO-GUA AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.5 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
*AV MCO-LIM AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*AV MCO-SAL AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6

*B6 FLL-GCM OCT 0>0.2 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0

DL ATL-MLB OCT 3>4
DL BOS-TPA OCT 1.8>3 NOV 1.7>3 DEC 1.7>3
DL DTW-HPN OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4
DL GRR-MSP OCT 4>5
DL ICT-MSP OCT 2>3
DL JFK-ATL JUL 7>8
DL JFK-KIN DEC 0>0.4
DL JFK-NAS OCT 1.0>1.8 NOV 1.0>1.9 DEC 1.4>1.9
DL MDW-MSP OCT 6>7
DL MSN-MSP OCT 5>6
DL SEA-ANC DEC 3>4
DL SEA-BOS OCT 3>2
DL SEA-JFK SEP 4>5
DL SLC-SAT OCT 3>2.0

DY EWR-ORY MAY 1.0>0.8 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.9 AUG 1.0>0.8

F9 YOY Compare
F9 ATL-CVG OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 ATL-MCO SEP 0>1.0
F9 ATL-MIA OCT 0.7>0
Interesting
F9 ATL-SJU AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4
F9 AUS-IAD SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 AUS-PHL SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-LAS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-MCO SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-MCO AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.4 OCT 2>1.4
F9 CLE-PDX AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 CLE-PHX OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-RSW AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 CMH-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
Big cut in COS (History repeats)
F9 COS-IAD AUG 1.0>0.2 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 COS-LAX AUG 0.5>0.2 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 COS-MCO AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-ORD AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-SAN AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 CVG-DFW SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 CVG-LAX SEP 0.9>0.6
F9 CVG-MCO OCT 1.9>1.1
F9 CVG-MSP SEP 0.6>0.3
F9 CVG-PHL AUG 0.2>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 CVG-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 CVG-RSW AUG 0.5>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.9>0.3
F9 CVG-TPA SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 DEN-ABQ AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>0.9
F9 DEN-ATL AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-BIS AUG 0.7>0.4
F9 DEN-BNA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CLE OCT 0.6>1.4
F9 DEN-CMH AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CVG AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 DEN-DFW OCT 1.8>1.3
F9 DEN-DSM AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-GSO AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 DEN-IAH AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-IND AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-LAS AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
Amazing only 1 RT in a core leisure market in October and August.
F9 DEN-MCO AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0
F9 DEN-MEM AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-MSN SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-MSY AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7
F9 DEN-ONT AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-ORD SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PDX AUG 3>1.4 SEP 3>1.4
F9 DEN-PHX SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PIT AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
F9 DEN-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-RDU OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 DEN-SAN AUG 3>1.7
F9 DEN-SAT AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
F9 DEN-SFO AUG 3>1.6 SEP 3>1.6 OCT 3>1.6
F9 DEN-SJC AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-SLC AUG 3>4
Here's where somebody got an SNA slot
F9 DEN-SNA AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-STL AUG 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-TYS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DTW-MCO SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.5>0.6
F9 DTW-TTN AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 IAD-LAS AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 IAD-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 IAH-PHL AUG 0.5>0.2
F9 IND-MCO AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 ISP-MCO OCT 1.8>1.0
F9 ISP-ORD AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 ISP-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 LAS-MEM SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 LAS-MIA SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 LAS-MKE AUG 1.0>0.3 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 LAS-SLC OCT 0.9>0.4
MCO cuts are mixed in but overall large cutback YOY
F9 LAX-MCO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-MKE AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 MCO-MSP OCT 0.9>0
F9 MCO-MSY OCT 0.9>0.7
F9 MCO-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 MCO-SAN AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SFO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SJU OCT 1.0>1.7
F9 MCO-STL AUG 1.6>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 MCO-TTN OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 MIA-ORD OCT 0.9>0
F9 MIA-PHL OCT 0.8>0
F9 MIA-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 ORD-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 ORD-TPA OCT 0.9>0
F9 PHL-RSW OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 PHL-SJU SEP 0.2>1.0
F9 PHL-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 RDU-SJU AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3
F9 RSW-TTN OCT 0.5>0.3

FI JFK-KEF JUN 1.8>1.6

HA LAX-OGG JUL 2>1.5

HX SFO-HKG AUG 0.8>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 0.9>0.5

J5 AGN-TKE MAY 1.1>3 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.8>0 SEP 0.0>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
J5 ELV-JNU MAY 1.2>2 AUG 1.8>3 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2
J5 EXI-JNU JUL 0.3>0.0
J5 GST-HNH MAY 0.7>0
J5 HNH-JNU MAY 4>6 JUN 6>7 JUL 5>7 AUG 5>7 SEP 0.2>5 OCT 0>5 NOV 0>5 DEC 0>5
J5 HNS-JNU MAY 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 6>7 SEP 0.4>6 OCT 0>6 NOV 0>6 DEC 0>6
J5 JNU-KAE SEP 0.1>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2
J5 JNU-PEC MAY 1.2>3 AUG 1.8>3 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2
J5 JNU-SGY MAY 6>7 JUL 6>7 SEP 0.4>6 OCT 0>6 NOV 0>6 DEC 0>6
J5 JNU-SIT SEP 0.2>3 OCT 0>3 NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3
J5 KAE-SIT SEP 0.1>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
J5 KLW-SIT MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>1.9 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 OCT 0>2 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2

JJ MIA-FOR JUL 0.3>0.4 AUG 0.3>0.4 SEP 0.3>0.4 OCT 0.3>0.4
JJ MIA-GIG AUG 1.1>1.0 SEP 1.1>1.0 OCT 1.1>1.0

K2 BET-CYF JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
K2 BET-KPN JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8
K2 CYF-KPN JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>0.9 DEC 0>0.8

Went to Skywest I think
*KS BOS-PBG SEP 1.7>0 OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.6>0

S4 BOS-PDL JUN 1.3>1.2 JUL 1.5>1.4 AUG 1.6>1.5 SEP 1.5>1.3

UA DEN-HDN OCT 1.9>1.1
UA DEN-MTJ OCT 3>4
UA DEN-RSW OCT 0.1>0.9
UA DEN-SAN OCT 5>6
UA EWR-BCN NOV 1.0>0.9
UA EWR-BNA OCT 6>7
UA EWR-CHS OCT 4>5
UA EWR-DTW OCT 6>7
UA EWR-FCO NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
UA EWR-GSO OCT 4>5
UA EWR-GVA NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.8
UA EWR-MEM OCT 3>4
UA EWR-MSY OCT 3>4
UA EWR-ORF OCT 5>6
UA EWR-PHX OCT 2>3
UA EWR-PIT OCT 8>9
UA EWR-RIC SEP 5>6
UA EWR-SAT OCT 1.0>1.8
UA EWR-YQB OCT 2>3
UA IAD-FRA NOV 2>1.9 DEC 2>1.8
UA IAD-GVA NOV 1.0>0.8
UA IAD-LAS OCT 2>3
*UA IAD-LWB NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.7
UA IAD-SHD OCT 1.7>1.0 NOV 1.7>0.9 DEC 1.7>0.8
UA IAH-ABQ JUL 4>3
UA IAH-BRO JUL 3>4
UA IAH-CLL JUL 2.0>3
UA IAH-COS OCT 3>4
UA IAH-DEN OCT 12>10
UA IAH-GPT JUL 4>3
UA IAH-GRR OCT 1.1>1.8
UA IAH-LAS OCT 8>7
UA IAH-MFE OCT 5>6
UA IAH-MOB JUL 5>4
UA IAH-MUC DEC 1.0>0.9
UA IAH-OKC JUL 8>7
UA IAH-PBI OCT 0.9>0.1
UA IAH-RDU OCT 4>5
UA IAH-SJC OCT 1.9>1.1
UA IAH-SLC OCT 3>4
UA IAH-TUL JUL 7>6
UA IAH-XNA JUL 4>3
UA IAH-YYC JUL 3>1.7
*UA LAX-BZN OCT 0.1>1.0 NOV 0>1.0
UA LAX-EWR OCT 13>12
UA LAX-IAH OCT 12>11
*UA LWB-SHD OCT 1.0>0.1 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
UA ORD-ABE OCT 2>3
UA ORD-ABQ OCT 2>3
UA ORD-ASE OCT 1.0>0.2
UA ORD-BUF OCT 6>5
UA ORD-CID OCT 6>5
UA ORD-GRR OCT 7>8
UA ORD-LAX OCT 12>11
UA ORD-MKE JUL 9>10 OCT 9>10
UA ORD-MSN OCT 7>9
UA ORD-MSY OCT 3>4
UA ORD-PDX OCT 4>5
UA ORD-PNS OCT 0.2>1.0
UA ORD-SBN OCT 4>5
UA ORD-SCE OCT 3>4
UA ORD-SDF OCT 6>7
*UA ORD-SHD OCT 0>0.9 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
UA ORD-SMF OCT 2>3
UA ORD-SYR OCT 5>6
UA ORD-TVC OCT 4>5
UA ORD-TYS OCT 4>5
UA SFO-CDG NOV 1.0>0.8
UA SFO-EWR OCT 15>13
UA SFO-IAH OCT 9>10
UA SFO-ORD OCT 16>14
UA SFO-RDD OCT 3>4

UP MIA-BIM SEP 0.5>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.5
UP MIA-NAS SEP 3>4

WN LAS-SNA OCT 6>7
WN MDW-SNA AUG 0.2>1.0
WN PHX-SNA OCT 7>8
WN SJC-SNA OCT 9>10

X4 GST-HNH JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.8>0
X4 GST-JNU JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
X4 HNH-JNU JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.8>0
X4 KLW-SIT JUL 0.9>0 AUG 1.0>0

*Y4 ORD-HUX NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.2
Y4 SAT-MEX OCT 0.9>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
 
CHOWahoo
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:16 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:17 pm

SHD getting direct service to ORD versus the current milk run through LWB and losing an IAD frequency as a result.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:24 pm

AS suspended DTW-PDX last winter also. Hope over time they can pick up a following to maintain it year round. We shall see what happens in 2019
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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SumChristianus
Posts: 585
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:30 pm

UA IAH-ABQ JUL 4>3

Seems low, 3x E75

DL DTW-HPN OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4


Added a 7:45 AM departure from DTW.

UA is making a push in the former NW heartland.
UA ORD-MKE JUL 9>10 OCT 9>10
UA ORD-MSN OCT 7>9


3x daily mainline ORD-MSN!

ORD-MCI gets some pretty good mainline as well.
UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-ATL-DEN: WN 73G/738
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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knope2001
Posts: 2919
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:31 pm

Thank as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
MCO cuts are mixed in but overall large cutback YOY


Orlando looks to be a net reduction of about 12/day in October versus 2017. Kind of odd -- after the summer peak ends but before the north gets cold enough to make snowbird flying kick in year-round tourism markets like Orlando and Vegas seem like reliable places to at least get respecable results until the snow flies. Of course no market is bottomless. Maybe they believe some of their 2018 spring/summer adds will hold strong into fall to keep those route flying longer. Many of this spring's expansion markets have (so far) been extended to 11/14. We'll see how things look in a few month I suppose.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2980
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:36 pm

enilria wrote:
F9 YOY Compare
F9 ATL-CVG OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 ATL-MCO SEP 0>1.0
F9 ATL-MIA OCT 0.7>0
Interesting
F9 ATL-SJU AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4
F9 AUS-IAD SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 AUS-PHL SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-LAS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-MCO SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-MCO AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.4 OCT 2>1.4
F9 CLE-PDX AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 CLE-PHX OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-RSW AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 CMH-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
Big cut in COS (History repeats)
F9 COS-IAD AUG 1.0>0.2 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 COS-LAX AUG 0.5>0.2 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 COS-MCO AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-ORD AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-SAN AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 CVG-DFW SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 CVG-LAX SEP 0.9>0.6
F9 CVG-MCO OCT 1.9>1.1
F9 CVG-MSP SEP 0.6>0.3
F9 CVG-PHL AUG 0.2>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 CVG-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 CVG-RSW AUG 0.5>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.9>0.3
F9 CVG-TPA SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 DEN-ABQ AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>0.9
F9 DEN-ATL AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-BIS AUG 0.7>0.4
F9 DEN-BNA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CLE OCT 0.6>1.4
F9 DEN-CMH AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CVG AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 DEN-DFW OCT 1.8>1.3
F9 DEN-DSM AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-GSO AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 DEN-IAH AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-IND AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-LAS AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
Amazing only 1 RT in a core leisure market in October and August.
F9 DEN-MCO AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0
F9 DEN-MEM AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-MSN SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-MSY AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7
F9 DEN-ONT AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-ORD SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PDX AUG 3>1.4 SEP 3>1.4
F9 DEN-PHX SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PIT AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
F9 DEN-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-RDU OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 DEN-SAN AUG 3>1.7
F9 DEN-SAT AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
F9 DEN-SFO AUG 3>1.6 SEP 3>1.6 OCT 3>1.6
F9 DEN-SJC AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-SLC AUG 3>4
Here's where somebody got an SNA slot
F9 DEN-SNA AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-STL AUG 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-TYS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DTW-MCO SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.5>0.6
F9 DTW-TTN AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 IAD-LAS AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 IAD-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 IAH-PHL AUG 0.5>0.2
F9 IND-MCO AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 ISP-MCO OCT 1.8>1.0
F9 ISP-ORD AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 ISP-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 LAS-MEM SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 LAS-MIA SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 LAS-MKE AUG 1.0>0.3 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 LAS-SLC OCT 0.9>0.4
MCO cuts are mixed in but overall large cutback YOY
F9 LAX-MCO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-MKE AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 MCO-MSP OCT 0.9>0
F9 MCO-MSY OCT 0.9>0.7
F9 MCO-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 MCO-SAN AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SFO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SJU OCT 1.0>1.7
F9 MCO-STL AUG 1.6>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 MCO-TTN OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 MIA-ORD OCT 0.9>0
F9 MIA-PHL OCT 0.8>0
F9 MIA-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 ORD-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 ORD-TPA OCT 0.9>0
F9 PHL-RSW OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 PHL-SJU SEP 0.2>1.0
F9 PHL-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 RDU-SJU AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3
F9 RSW-TTN OCT 0.5>0.3

Just wondering where all of their adds are? I think they are adding a lot of new routes?

another one bites the dust on MCO-LAX. Not a surprised really. The yields are atrocious. And interesting they've also cut MCO-SFO, which is not going well at all.

As a point of reference from Q4
Route Distance Carrier Board AvgFare LF AvgPerSeat PRASM
MCOLAX 2218 AA 68313 233.48 93.21% 217.63 0.0981
MCOLAX 2218 DL 87522 250.34 93.63% 234.4 0.1057
MCOLAX 2218 B6 24703 183.32 90.49% 165.89 0.0748
MCOLAX 2218 F9 31101 109.75 94.16% 103.34 0.0466
MCOLAX 2218 VX 24707 205.97 90.79% 187.01 0.0843
MCOLAX 2218 UA 34404 233.81 93.17% 217.84 0.0982

now F9 and VX/AS are out, so I'd imagine some of these numbers with start to look better

MCOSFO 2446 F9 25884 126.7 93.78% 118.82 0.0486
MCOSFO 2446 VX 25516 265.05 88.61% 234.86 0.096
MCOSFO 2446 UA 60582 320.84 91.23% 292.69 0.1197
A little more breathing room here for UA and AS.
Last edited by tphuang on Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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flymco753
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:44 pm

klm617 wrote:
AS suspended DTW-PDX last winter also. Hope over time they can pick up a following to maintain it year round. We shall see what happens in 2019
Wouldnt be surprised if they end the route all together.
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ryanflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:52 pm

Wonder why Omaha-Miami was cancelled. The route seemed to be doing alright when I flew it. Interesting that Omaha just got a Philadelphia flight too that starts in a few weeks.
 
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tb727
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:56 pm

klm617 wrote:
AS suspended DTW-PDX last winter also. Hope over time they can pick up a following to maintain it year round. We shall see what happens in 2019


PDX isn't a year round kind of city, winter weather there is just gross. Cold and rainy isn't somewhere people want to escape to during a dreary Michigan winter.
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
RL757PVD
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:58 pm

My guess is that some of the F9 OCT Florida cuts are because they are pushing them back a month. This year they started and ended too early. October was very mild and people weren’t thinking Florida yet, and on the flip side they pulled down too early and completely missed the second school vacation week in April from the northeast, leaving lots of money on the table.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
TropicalSky
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:02 pm

Is it me or is Delta gaining ground in JFK market against JetBlue .... I remember when they could barely maintain 1rt on JFK-NAS and kept switching it to LGA.....now they're almost up to 2x daily yr round....what gives @ Enilria?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:04 pm

For Seattle in sepetemberbpicked a random date. Of the 6 flights 3 we're 737, 3 we're 757. Just two of the five offered lie flat seats I guess delta one has not been a huge hit to Seattle if they prefer all these domestic first seats? Are these two flights timed for Asian and hawiian connections?
 
marvinanderson1
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:12 pm

True to their word, UA appears to be expanding quickly from ORD, DEN and IAH. Seems they are really going to compete with ULCC especially in the Midwest.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:13 pm

tb727 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
AS suspended DTW-PDX last winter also. Hope over time they can pick up a following to maintain it year round. We shall see what happens in 2019


PDX isn't a year round kind of city, winter weather there is just gross. Cold and rainy isn't somewhere people want to escape to during a dreary Michigan winter.


When AS announced the start of DTW-PDX I said it wasn't going to work, and pointed to the short-season (done after Labor Day) service that NW was running ~25 years ago. There's tremendous seasonality (total airport passenger fall-off) to both PDX and SEA thru the fall and winter. Michiganians aren't going to spend a rainy winter in PDX. I don't know that PDX has enough East Coast demand to support runs thru all the competing hubs (SEA, DEN, ORD, DTW). I'm not sure there's daily rear-round demand for one carrier; there surely isn't room for two.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:25 pm

All the ads for 4B, Boutique Air, are currently operating. Looks like just a schedule extension. Not shown: 4B will discontinue the ABQ-ALS flight on May 1 and add a 4th DEN-ALS (which is shown).
 
DDR
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:25 pm

TropicalSky wrote:
Is it me or is Delta gaining ground in JFK market against JetBlue .... I remember when they could barely maintain 1rt on JFK-NAS and kept switching it to LGA.....now they're almost up to 2x daily yr round....what gives @ Enilria?


Wow, DL must be doing really well on the SEA-JFK route if they are adding capacity. I'm sort of surprised there is that much nonstop demand on the route.

And thanks as always Enilria!
 
holeham
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:44 pm

TPA gets hit pretty good by the F9 reductions as well.

One bit of good news for TPA is the add by DL to BOS. Three a day. Looks like they are starting to give JetBlue a run for their money?
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

Too bad about OMA-MIA... OMA has been going gang busters lately so it's a surprise to see a route get cut, no non stop to south Florida but I suppose most connecting travelers using MIA as a transfer hub to get to Carribean/LatAmerica can get to where they are going via DFW/CLT
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:58 pm

holeham wrote:
TPA gets hit pretty good by the F9 reductions as well.

One bit of good news for TPA is the add by DL to BOS. Three a day. Looks like they are starting to give JetBlue a run for their money?

I expect most of not all the F9 TPA cuts will be reversed in their winter/spring schedule. Frontier is highly seasonal.
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
cschleic
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tb727 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
AS suspended DTW-PDX last winter also. Hope over time they can pick up a following to maintain it year round. We shall see what happens in 2019


PDX isn't a year round kind of city, winter weather there is just gross. Cold and rainy isn't somewhere people want to escape to during a dreary Michigan winter.


When AS announced the start of DTW-PDX I said it wasn't going to work, and pointed to the short-season (done after Labor Day) service that NW was running ~25 years ago. There's tremendous seasonality (total airport passenger fall-off) to both PDX and SEA thru the fall and winter. Michiganians aren't going to spend a rainy winter in PDX. I don't know that PDX has enough East Coast demand to support runs thru all the competing hubs (SEA, DEN, ORD, DTW). I'm not sure there's daily rear-round demand for one carrier; there surely isn't room for two.


IIRC, PDX - DTW was seasonal for Delta in the past. And the PDX - DTW flight was a redeye, too, which sort of implies it was designed for outbound traffic?
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tb727 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
AS suspended DTW-PDX last winter also. Hope over time they can pick up a following to maintain it year round. We shall see what happens in 2019


PDX isn't a year round kind of city, winter weather there is just gross. Cold and rainy isn't somewhere people want to escape to during a dreary Michigan winter.


When AS announced the start of DTW-PDX I said it wasn't going to work, and pointed to the short-season (done after Labor Day) service that NW was running ~25 years ago. There's tremendous seasonality (total airport passenger fall-off) to both PDX and SEA thru the fall and winter. Michiganians aren't going to spend a rainy winter in PDX. I don't know that PDX has enough East Coast demand to support runs thru all the competing hubs (SEA, DEN, ORD, DTW). I'm not sure there's daily rear-round demand for one carrier; there surely isn't room for two.



I think for this flight to be a success in the beginning it would have to be filled with PDX originating AS loyal fliers until they can crack the Delta strong hold on the Detroit end because it is such a thin route. On another positive note no Delta reductions in the Detroit market two weeks running.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:13 pm

holeham wrote:
TPA gets hit pretty good by the F9 reductions as well.

One bit of good news for TPA is the add by DL to BOS. Three a day. Looks like they are starting to give JetBlue a run for their money?


Time for B6 to start giving DL a run for their money and start DTW-MCO
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
avi8
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:15 pm

Interesting adds by AV at MCO. Three destinations all in one with a net gain of 2 daily flights. Great additions.
avi8

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ua900
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:33 pm

enilria wrote:
*AV BOS-SAL AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.6 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6
*AV MCO-GUA AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.5 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4
*AV MCO-LIM AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
*AV MCO-SAL AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5 NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.6


Nice to see, congrats to AV for expanding their US routes again and their comeback in BOS. Huge Central American community there will appreciate it. And while MCO has also seen cutbacks elsewhere, it's certainly nice to see AV expanding nicely at MCO.
2018: AMS | ARN | CDG | DEN | DFW | EWR | FRA | GUM | HAM | HKG | HNL | IAH | LAX | MIA | MUC | ORD | RSW | SAL | SFO | SIN | TLV | TXL | VIE | ZRH
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:46 pm

DDR wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
Is it me or is Delta gaining ground in JFK market against JetBlue .... I remember when they could barely maintain 1rt on JFK-NAS and kept switching it to LGA.....now they're almost up to 2x daily yr round....what gives @ Enilria?


Wow, DL must be doing really well on the SEA-JFK route if they are adding capacity. I'm sort of surprised there is that much nonstop demand on the route.

And thanks as always Enilria!


DL has always been the fare leader by a pretty wide shot on JFK-SEA. It's a hub to hub route and they have the most lie flats operated on this route. It seems like this is just an extension of 5 daily service for an extra month. I assume it's because both AS and B6 have added to this route recently. Huge bloodbath this summer.

As for B6 vs DL in JFK, they both only have so many slots in JFK each and DL has always had more and operate 40 to 50 flights a day more. If DL is adding another flight, they are either using their slots more fully or they need to cut back somewhere else. DL does have more room for up-gauging still.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
F9 YOY Compare
F9 ATL-CVG OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 ATL-MCO SEP 0>1.0
F9 ATL-MIA OCT 0.7>0
Interesting
F9 ATL-SJU AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4
F9 AUS-IAD SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 AUS-PHL SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-LAS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-MCO SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-MCO AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.4 OCT 2>1.4
F9 CLE-PDX AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 CLE-PHX OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-RSW AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 CMH-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
Big cut in COS (History repeats)
F9 COS-IAD AUG 1.0>0.2 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 COS-LAX AUG 0.5>0.2 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 COS-MCO AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-ORD AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-SAN AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 CVG-DFW SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 CVG-LAX SEP 0.9>0.6
F9 CVG-MCO OCT 1.9>1.1
F9 CVG-MSP SEP 0.6>0.3
F9 CVG-PHL AUG 0.2>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 CVG-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 CVG-RSW AUG 0.5>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.9>0.3
F9 CVG-TPA SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 DEN-ABQ AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>0.9
F9 DEN-ATL AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-BIS AUG 0.7>0.4
F9 DEN-BNA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CLE OCT 0.6>1.4
F9 DEN-CMH AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CVG AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 DEN-DFW OCT 1.8>1.3
F9 DEN-DSM AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-GSO AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 DEN-IAH AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-IND AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-LAS AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
Amazing only 1 RT in a core leisure market in October and August.
F9 DEN-MCO AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0
F9 DEN-MEM AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-MSN SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-MSY AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7
F9 DEN-ONT AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-ORD SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PDX AUG 3>1.4 SEP 3>1.4
F9 DEN-PHX SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PIT AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
F9 DEN-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-RDU OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 DEN-SAN AUG 3>1.7
F9 DEN-SAT AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
F9 DEN-SFO AUG 3>1.6 SEP 3>1.6 OCT 3>1.6
F9 DEN-SJC AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-SLC AUG 3>4
Here's where somebody got an SNA slot
F9 DEN-SNA AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-STL AUG 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-TYS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DTW-MCO SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.5>0.6
F9 DTW-TTN AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 IAD-LAS AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 IAD-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 IAH-PHL AUG 0.5>0.2
F9 IND-MCO AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 ISP-MCO OCT 1.8>1.0
F9 ISP-ORD AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 ISP-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 LAS-MEM SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 LAS-MIA SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 LAS-MKE AUG 1.0>0.3 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 LAS-SLC OCT 0.9>0.4
MCO cuts are mixed in but overall large cutback YOY
F9 LAX-MCO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-MKE AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 MCO-MSP OCT 0.9>0
F9 MCO-MSY OCT 0.9>0.7
F9 MCO-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 MCO-SAN AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SFO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SJU OCT 1.0>1.7
F9 MCO-STL AUG 1.6>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 MCO-TTN OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 MIA-ORD OCT 0.9>0
F9 MIA-PHL OCT 0.8>0
F9 MIA-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 ORD-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 ORD-TPA OCT 0.9>0
F9 PHL-RSW OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 PHL-SJU SEP 0.2>1.0
F9 PHL-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 RDU-SJU AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3
F9 RSW-TTN OCT 0.5>0.3

Just wondering where all of their adds are? I think they are adding a lot of new routes?

another one bites the dust on MCO-LAX. Not a surprised really. The yields are atrocious. And interesting they've also cut MCO-SFO, which is not going well at all.

As a point of reference from Q4
Route Distance Carrier Board AvgFare LF AvgPerSeat PRASM
MCOLAX 2218 AA 68313 233.48 93.21% 217.63 0.0981
MCOLAX 2218 DL 87522 250.34 93.63% 234.4 0.1057
MCOLAX 2218 B6 24703 183.32 90.49% 165.89 0.0748
MCOLAX 2218 F9 31101 109.75 94.16% 103.34 0.0466
MCOLAX 2218 VX 24707 205.97 90.79% 187.01 0.0843
MCOLAX 2218 UA 34404 233.81 93.17% 217.84 0.0982

now F9 and VX/AS are out, so I'd imagine some of these numbers with start to look better

MCOSFO 2446 F9 25884 126.7 93.78% 118.82 0.0486
MCOSFO 2446 VX 25516 265.05 88.61% 234.86 0.096
MCOSFO 2446 UA 60582 320.84 91.23% 292.69 0.1197
A little more breathing room here for UA and AS.


Seems odd. All airlines getting over 90% load, F9 is charging as little as half the other carriers. Why did they charge so little if the other airlines are filling planes with much higher fares?

If not too far off topic, could you explain PRASM?
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1270
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:55 pm

Here's where somebody got an SNA slot
F9 DEN-SNA AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0

WN SJC-SNA OCT 9>10


Here? ;)
 
tphuang
Posts: 2980
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:59 pm

AirFiero wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
F9 YOY Compare
F9 ATL-CVG OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 ATL-MCO SEP 0>1.0
F9 ATL-MIA OCT 0.7>0
Interesting
F9 ATL-SJU AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4
F9 AUS-IAD SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 AUS-PHL SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-LAS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 BNA-MCO SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-MCO AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.4 OCT 2>1.4
F9 CLE-PDX AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 CLE-PHX OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 CLE-RSW AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 CMH-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
Big cut in COS (History repeats)
F9 COS-IAD AUG 1.0>0.2 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 COS-LAX AUG 0.5>0.2 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 COS-MCO AUG 1.0>0.5 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-ORD AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 COS-SAN AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 CVG-DFW SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 CVG-LAX SEP 0.9>0.6
F9 CVG-MCO OCT 1.9>1.1
F9 CVG-MSP SEP 0.6>0.3
F9 CVG-PHL AUG 0.2>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 CVG-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 CVG-RSW AUG 0.5>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.9>0.3
F9 CVG-TPA SEP 0.5>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 DEN-ABQ AUG 0>0.8 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>0.9
F9 DEN-ATL AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-BIS AUG 0.7>0.4
F9 DEN-BNA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CLE OCT 0.6>1.4
F9 DEN-CMH AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-CVG AUG 1.5>1.0
F9 DEN-DFW OCT 1.8>1.3
F9 DEN-DSM AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-GSO AUG 0.5>0.1
F9 DEN-IAH AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 DEN-IND AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-LAS AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
Amazing only 1 RT in a core leisure market in October and August.
F9 DEN-MCO AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.7>1.0
F9 DEN-MEM AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-MSN SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DEN-MSY AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7
F9 DEN-ONT AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-ORD SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PDX AUG 3>1.4 SEP 3>1.4
F9 DEN-PHX SEP 1.0>2
F9 DEN-PIT AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
F9 DEN-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-RDU OCT 0.1>1.0
F9 DEN-SAN AUG 3>1.7
F9 DEN-SAT AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
F9 DEN-SFO AUG 3>1.6 SEP 3>1.6 OCT 3>1.6
F9 DEN-SJC AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 DEN-SLC AUG 3>4
Here's where somebody got an SNA slot
F9 DEN-SNA AUG 2>1.4 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-STL AUG 1.4>1.0
F9 DEN-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 DEN-TYS SEP 0.6>0.4
F9 DTW-MCO SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.5>0.6
F9 DTW-TTN AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 IAD-LAS AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 IAD-MCO AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 IAH-PHL AUG 0.5>0.2
F9 IND-MCO AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.6
F9 ISP-MCO OCT 1.8>1.0
F9 ISP-ORD AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
F9 ISP-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 LAS-MEM SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
F9 LAS-MIA SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 LAS-MKE AUG 1.0>0.3 SEP 1.0>0.3 OCT 1.0>0.3
F9 LAS-SLC OCT 0.9>0.4
MCO cuts are mixed in but overall large cutback YOY
F9 LAX-MCO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-MKE AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.4 OCT 1.0>0.4
F9 MCO-MSP OCT 0.9>0
F9 MCO-MSY OCT 0.9>0.7
F9 MCO-PVD SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 MCO-SAN AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SFO AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
F9 MCO-SJU OCT 1.0>1.7
F9 MCO-STL AUG 1.6>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
F9 MCO-TTN OCT 1.4>1.0
F9 MIA-ORD OCT 0.9>0
F9 MIA-PHL OCT 0.8>0
F9 MIA-SJU AUG 0>0.4
F9 ORD-PHX AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
F9 ORD-TPA OCT 0.9>0
F9 PHL-RSW OCT 0.9>0.4
F9 PHL-SJU SEP 0.2>1.0
F9 PHL-TPA AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 1.0>0.5
F9 RDU-SJU AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3
F9 RSW-TTN OCT 0.5>0.3

Just wondering where all of their adds are? I think they are adding a lot of new routes?

another one bites the dust on MCO-LAX. Not a surprised really. The yields are atrocious. And interesting they've also cut MCO-SFO, which is not going well at all.

As a point of reference from Q4
Route Distance Carrier Board AvgFare LF AvgPerSeat PRASM
MCOLAX 2218 AA 68313 233.48 93.21% 217.63 0.0981
MCOLAX 2218 DL 87522 250.34 93.63% 234.4 0.1057
MCOLAX 2218 B6 24703 183.32 90.49% 165.89 0.0748
MCOLAX 2218 F9 31101 109.75 94.16% 103.34 0.0466
MCOLAX 2218 VX 24707 205.97 90.79% 187.01 0.0843
MCOLAX 2218 UA 34404 233.81 93.17% 217.84 0.0982

now F9 and VX/AS are out, so I'd imagine some of these numbers with start to look better

MCOSFO 2446 F9 25884 126.7 93.78% 118.82 0.0486
MCOSFO 2446 VX 25516 265.05 88.61% 234.86 0.096
MCOSFO 2446 UA 60582 320.84 91.23% 292.69 0.1197
A little more breathing room here for UA and AS.


Seems odd. All airlines getting over 90% load, F9 is charging as little as half the other carriers. Why did they charge so little if the other airlines are filling planes with much higher fares?

If not too far off topic, could you explain PRASM?


Sorry, this is really not a conclusive look, because airlines like F9/NK/G4 also get more from Ancillary revenues, whereas this is purely calculated based on air fares. They are expected to be a lot lower, because their costs are a lot lower. And this doesn't discount taxes and other fees.

And I would say legacy carrier numbers are also more likely to be inflated by fares of some 1 stop itineraries, which my number currently does not distinguish. I'm calling it PRASM, because it's the passenger revenue divided by available seat miles (available seat mile is available seats x distance). So you can get PRASM from what I show above by dividing AvgPerSeat by distance.
 
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:27 pm

enilria wrote:
DL DTW-HPN OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4


Glad to see this, it is also operated by CRJ-900's now instead of CRJ-200's. We also see a 1x 717 to ATL now as well.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
 
PIEAvantiP180
Posts: 519
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
DDR wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
Is it me or is Delta gaining ground in JFK market against JetBlue .... I remember when they could barely maintain 1rt on JFK-NAS and kept switching it to LGA.....now they're almost up to 2x daily yr round....what gives @ Enilria?


Wow, DL must be doing really well on the SEA-JFK route if they are adding capacity. I'm sort of surprised there is that much nonstop demand on the route.

And thanks as always Enilria!


DL has always been the fare leader by a pretty wide shot on JFK-SEA. It's a hub to hub route and they have the most lie flats operated on this route. It seems like this is just an extension of 5 daily service for an extra month. I assume it's because both AS and B6 have added to this route recently. Huge bloodbath this summer.

As for B6 vs DL in JFK, they both only have so many slots in JFK each and DL has always had more and operate 40 to 50 flights a day more. If DL is adding another flight, they are either using their slots more fully or they need to cut back somewhere else. DL does have more room for up-gauging still.


From everything what i can gather here is that JFK has slots available in the morning hours and its the afternoon and evening hours that are the problem when it comes to slot times. JFK is limited to 81 scheduled operations per hour. So if morning slots are still available I believe from what I can gather they can add 10-15 flights per hour without any problems in the non busy morning hours. As well with the 80% use it or loose it rule i'm sure DL and B6 could add more flights during the peak time by better utilizing the slots they already have, as i'm sure they are not all 100% utilized.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documen ... al-airport
Under the Order, as amended, the FAA (1) maintains the current hourly limits on 81 scheduled operations at JFK during the peak period; (2) imposes an 80 percent minimum usage requirement for Operating Authorizations (OAs) with defined exceptions; (3) provides a mechanism for withdrawal of OAs for FAA operational reasons; (4) establishes procedures to allocate withdrawn, surrendered, or unallocated OAs; and (5) allows for trades and leases of OAs for consideration for the duration of the Order.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:31 pm

Every week seems to be more and more AS cuts. Interesting to see where they end up with this merger, perhaps right back where they started but having eliminated a competitor.
 
LovePrunesAnet
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:30 pm

CHOWahoo wrote:
SHD getting direct service to ORD versus the current milk run through LWB and losing an IAD frequency as a result.


One flight a day?
Guess better than nothing, but I don't know if this route will work or not
 
CHOWahoo
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:41 pm

They had been marketing SHD-LWB-ORD without mentioning the stop in LWB, so perhaps it will work better as a nonstop once people figure out the existing direct flight is not nonstop. It's an EAS route anyway.
SHD needs to turn its fortunes around after having lousy EAS offerings with Silver (after it lost the UA interline) and ViaAir. Having ORD as a nonstop might help them do that as IAD is less than a 2 hour drive from much of its cachement area.
 
LovePrunesAnet
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:50 pm

CHOWahoo wrote:
They had been marketing SHD-LWB-ORD without mentioning the stop in LWB, so perhaps it will work better as a nonstop once people figure out the existing direct flight is not nonstop. It's an EAS route anyway.
SHD needs to turn its fortunes around after having lousy EAS offerings with Silver (after it lost the UA interline) and ViaAir. Having ORD as a nonstop might help them do that as IAD is less than a 2 hour drive from much of its cachement area.


It's actually a pretty big deal. I think for the past THIRTY or so years the longest route SHD ever had was to PIT. Don't think they've ever had service even to CLT and EVERY airport in the southeast pretty much has had CLT. I just wonder if people are too accustomed to driving to bigger nearby airports (CHO and IAD) with more flight times and choices to stay as an originating passenger here for one flight a day but good luck to them it's a good development

Edited to add ... actually I was wrong apparently the airport had random service to Orlando Sanford on via air which has ended ...and had four or five months of Frontier service to Orlando some five years ago which was cancelled quickly (the way frontier likes to do!) also. Seems like a funky airport to be able to make any profits.
Last edited by LovePrunesAnet on Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:05 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
Every week seems to be more and more AS cuts. Interesting to see where they end up with this merger, perhaps right back where they started but having eliminated a competitor.

I wouldn't necessarily say AS is always cutting flights/routes but in many cases they add flights or frequencies to existing routes, then a week or two later, this thread reports that those just-added flights are gone. This is the part that keeps me scratching my head and wondering what's happening to one of my favorite airlines.

I hope they're not getting big-time into the practice of adding multiple flights on a route for the future (6-9 months out) to see which ones get booked the most, then cancelling the ones that didn't seem that popular according to advanced bookings, and ending up with the same capacity as they started with, maybe with different times. (I know there's a name for that but I can't think of it.) I know that's not unheard of in the industry but to the best of my knowledge, AS has not done that very much in the past. And I'm not talking about ghost segments/place holders; there's a big difference.

There's stuff being done at AAG these days -- like I mentioned above -- that I haven't seen in the past and I don't like to see. I hope these are some temporary practices due to perhaps the take-over of VX, or I-don't know-what, but I hope the Company isn't permanently changing the way it does business.

Incidentally, for those interested in 'Bus fleet integration by AAG, I just saw that the SAN/LAX - Cabo flights are all AirBi beginning August 26. (Whether it will stay that way is the question!) I've also seen some SAN-SEA flights become 'Buses, then revert back to Boeing shortly thereafter. (Another example of some of the confusion coming out of Network Planning these days.)

bb
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:52 pm

shoot, why couldn't they do SAN-SJD a bit sooner, i'm scheduled to use them 7/28 =-(
Wouldve been stoked to show my daughter a former VX bird perhaps with their interior, especially since we're in first. Maybe they will swap
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
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compensateme
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:37 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
When AS announced the start of DTW-PDX I said it wasn't going to work, and pointed to the short-season (done after Labor Day) service that NW was running ~25 years ago. There's tremendous seasonality (total airport passenger fall-off) to both PDX and SEA thru the fall and winter. Michiganians aren't going to spend a rainy winter in PDX. I don't know that PDX has enough East Coast demand to support runs thru all the competing hubs (SEA, DEN, ORD, DTW). I'm not sure there's daily rear-round demand for one carrier; there surely isn't room for two.


NW operated DTW/PDX multiple times a day from the late 1990s into the mid-2000s. NW synergized its traffic flows during its bankrupty, and DTW saw heavy reductions to SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, PHX, etc. and increases to trunk east coast markets (while MSP saw decreases).

I’m too lazy to look it up, but the route didn’t become seasonal until or shortly before the merger (during the Great Recession).

IIRC, PDX replaced one of the SEA frequencies during the winter months for AS.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:53 pm

The increase on IAD-LAS to 3x daily is the first time in years that UA has flown 3x on this route.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:14 am

Looks like WN got a few more slots at SNA.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
JayWings
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Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:17 am

SANFan wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
Every week seems to be more and more AS cuts. Interesting to see where they end up with this merger, perhaps right back where they started but having eliminated a competitor.

I wouldn't necessarily say AS is always cutting flights/routes but in many cases they add flights or frequencies to existing routes, then a week or two later, this thread reports that those just-added flights are gone. This is the part that keeps me scratching my head and wondering what's happening to one of my favorite airlines.

I hope they're not getting big-time into the practice of adding multiple flights on a route for the future (6-9 months out) to see which ones get booked the most, then cancelling the ones that didn't seem that popular according to advanced bookings, and ending up with the same capacity as they started with, maybe with different times. (I know there's a name for that but I can't think of it.) I know that's not unheard of in the industry but to the best of my knowledge, AS has not done that very much in the past. And I'm not talking about ghost segments/place holders; there's a big difference.

There's stuff being done at AAG these days -- like I mentioned above -- that I haven't seen in the past and I don't like to see. I hope these are some temporary practices due to perhaps the take-over of VX, or I-don't know-what, but I hope the Company isn't permanently changing the way it does business.

Incidentally, for those interested in 'Bus fleet integration by AAG, I just saw that the SAN/LAX - Cabo flights are all AirBi beginning August 26. (Whether it will stay that way is the question!) I've also seen some SAN-SEA flights become 'Buses, then revert back to Boeing shortly thereafter. (Another example of some of the confusion coming out of Network Planning these days.)

bb


Honestly I mark all of this up to processing the merger. The people in AAG have a lot of new toys to play with in their sandbox, and I imagine the aircraft swapping is them trying to find what aircraft works best on what route. Just like any acquisition or merger where the airline moves forward with a mixed fleet there will be aircraft changes, frequency changes and routes that don’t continue. Also last year AS added more new routes than in any year previously in company history. That was a huge amount of growth to process on their own, never mind all the inherited routes from the LVX operation. Combining two airlines into one isn’t easy. Discovering best practices and merging teams together could lead to what you see as far as route schedules down the road. From what I can see, Alaska is evolving and growing from this merger in a lot of positive ways. I’m inclined to give them some slack as they work to bring the nations 5th largest airline together into a cohesive experience. Just my 2 cents.

Also on a side note, I love reading through these weekly schedule changes! It’s nice to see other airlines change their schedules and capacities too.
 
kavok
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:39 am

compensateme wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
When AS announced the start of DTW-PDX I said it wasn't going to work, and pointed to the short-season (done after Labor Day) service that NW was running ~25 years ago. There's tremendous seasonality (total airport passenger fall-off) to both PDX and SEA thru the fall and winter. Michiganians aren't going to spend a rainy winter in PDX. I don't know that PDX has enough East Coast demand to support runs thru all the competing hubs (SEA, DEN, ORD, DTW). I'm not sure there's daily rear-round demand for one carrier; there surely isn't room for two.


NW operated DTW/PDX multiple times a day from the late 1990s into the mid-2000s. NW synergized its traffic flows during its bankrupty, and DTW saw heavy reductions to SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, PHX, etc. and increases to trunk east coast markets (while MSP saw decreases).

I’m too lazy to look it up, but the route didn’t become seasonal until or shortly before the merger (during the Great Recession).

IIRC, PDX replaced one of the SEA frequencies during the winter months for AS.



The AS PDX-DTW flight is the victim of a classic DL fare/schedule war. There is enough demand that PDX-DTW could work on a couple flights a day, but in a monopolistic situation it is far more profitable for DL to route most of these flows through connections in MSP. So they do.

When AS added their PDX-DTW flights (with the EB flight being a red eye), DL responded with low fares and changing their EB flight from a red eye to a daytime return. Thus it is no surprise that pax are going to mostly chose DL, to both avoid the red eye, and take advantage of the bottom barrel fares. Predictably, AS then drops the route for the winter rather than compete.
 
JRL3289
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:49 am

ryanflyer wrote:
Wonder why Omaha-Miami was cancelled. The route seemed to be doing alright when I flew it. Interesting that Omaha just got a Philadelphia flight too that starts in a few weeks.


My guess is a relatively small local market, coupled with the ability to flow connections over ORD/CLT/DFW, doomed OMA-MIA. I was actually shocked when AA added it considering they dropped OMA-DCA which is a much larger local market and overflies two other hubs. The local Omaha-South Florida market is still just a bit too small... otherwise WN would be on OMA-FLL at least seasonally like they are OMA-MCO; Midwesterners seem to prefer the Gulf side of Florida for some reason.
 
User avatar
jetblastdubai
Posts: 1857
Joined: Sun Aug 18, 2013 10:23 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:50 am

JRL3289 wrote:
Midwesterners seem to prefer the Gulf side of Florida for some reason.


Because we've seen Miami. :lol:

Additionally, UA has traditionally been the 'go to' airline of the US3 for the smaller midwest cities so they've got loads of established frequent fliers. Their rank in OMA might have dropped for total pax but UA can still get you anywhere east, west or south through a hub with frequent options. I know AA in DFW is a big O&D draw but unless you're continuing farther south, it's not geographically convenient for east or west connections. IAH is nearly as good as DFW for connections in the south or Latin/South America and DEN beats anything AA has going west.

For the AG business, SFO offers midwest farmers/ranchers/politicians etc. superb access to Asia. which is probably why UA's OMA-SFO route is still successful.

Mileage programs and status keep a lot of people locked into certain carriers and sometimes regardless of convenience.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
scoping2008
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:48 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:24 am

Incidentally, for those interested in 'Bus fleet integration by AAG, I just saw that the SAN/LAX - Cabo flights are all AirBi beginning August 26. (Whether it will stay that way is the question!) I've also seen some SAN-SEA flights become 'Buses, then revert back to Boeing shortly thereafter. (Another example of some of the confusion coming out of Network Planning these days.)


A recent articles on Alaska's employee website outlined some of the fleet-pairing changes coming in August:

Trans-con flying from Airbus to Boeing:

BOS-LAX
HNL-LAX
HNL-SFO
OGG-SFO
EWR-LAX
EWR-SFO
JFK-LAX
ORD-SFO

North / South flying from Boeing to Airbus:

AUS-SEA
LAX-SJD
SAN-SJD
PDX-SAN
LAX-PVR
 
acentauri
Posts: 242
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:31 am

ryanflyer wrote:
Wonder why Omaha-Miami was cancelled. The route seemed to be doing alright when I flew it. Interesting that Omaha just got a Philadelphia flight too that starts in a few weeks.

Actually OMA-PHL is 2 x Daily.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3517
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:53 pm

ryanflyer wrote:
Wonder why Omaha-Miami was cancelled. The route seemed to be doing alright when I flew it. Interesting that Omaha just got a Philadelphia flight too that starts in a few weeks.

Flight was only 63% full for the last 12 months of T100. The fares were okay, but the flight probably needed to get to 80%+ with the same fares to cut it.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
The increase on IAD-LAS to 3x daily is the first time in years that UA has flown 3x on this route.

First time since Fall of 2011 from what I can tell.
 
FSDan
Posts: 2474
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:47 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
3x daily mainline ORD-MSN!


United is stepping up their capacity to try to win some business from DL in MSN. This summer they're starting daily SFO (E75), keeping DEN at 2x daily mainline (319/320), upping ORD to 9x daily with 3x daily mainline (mix of CR2/CR7/E75/319/320/739), and adding a second daily flight to EWR (and upgauging one to E75).

Meanwhile, DL will have fewer mainline flights here than the past summer or two, but will be adding a 3rd daily MSN-LGA and will have removed all 50-seaters from the market.

AA will be almost all large-RJ service (minus 3x of the 6x daily MSN-ORD that will still be CR2/ER4), including the addition of 2x daily MSN-PHL on the CR7.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
bridge29
Posts: 84
Joined: Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:45 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:30 pm

FSDan wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
3x daily mainline ORD-MSN!


United is stepping up their capacity to try to win some business from DL in MSN. This summer they're starting daily SFO (E75), keeping DEN at 2x daily mainline (319/320), upping ORD to 9x daily with 3x daily mainline (mix of CR2/CR7/E75/319/320/739), and adding a second daily flight to EWR (and upgauging one to E75).

Meanwhile, DL will have fewer mainline flights here than the past summer or two, but will be adding a 3rd daily MSN-LGA and will have removed all 50-seaters from the market.

AA will be almost all large-RJ service (minus 3x of the 6x daily MSN-ORD that will still be CR2/ER4), including the addition of 2x daily MSN-PHL on the CR7.


Epic produces a ton of business travel in and out of Madison, so the air travel is a bit outsized based on the size of the market. I assume they're doing quite well.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/22/2018:AA Drops MIA-OMA;AS Suspends DTW-PDX; AV Adds BOS-SAL, MCO-GUA/LIM/SAL;B6 +GCM-FLL;UA +ORD-SHD

Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:09 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
Every week seems to be more and more AS cuts. Interesting to see where they end up with this merger, perhaps right back where they started but having eliminated a competitor.


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