JetBlue Network Thread 2018

Buffalomatt1027 · Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:34 am

B752OS wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
Kind of shocked B6 hasnt expanded to any new routes at BNIA..... BUF - LAX (Which is doing pretty well) was the last route they added.

That’s not true. Just off the top of my head, they’ve added BOS-MSP, EWR-SDQ, FLL-BGI, BOS-HAV, with BOS/JFK-MEX, LGB-BZN,LGB-SUN, LGB-HDN and I think BOS-HDN also in the fall. I can’t remember those other new routes. Oh and BOS-BUR and JFK-ONT. Pretty sure all of those have or will start after BU-LAX.

The person was referring to new roues out of Buffalo. The last add JetBlue made at that airport was the flight to Los Angeles.

JetBlue already serves their main bases ex. Buffalo - Boston, New York JFK, Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando. Maybe they add some additional Florida service? Perhaps Tampa and/or Fort Myers?

Yeah, Southwest and Frontier has the rest of the Florida market covered.

Jeeze looking at B6 destinations map ..... not many destinations that actually make sense, Outside of Florida and where they already fly out of! BUF - SF or BUF to SEA would be welcome additions. Another one would be a seasonal Caribbean destination but that is unlikely too.

The NFTA wants another west coast destination near silicon valley .... San Francisco based on passenger final destinations at BNIA is pretty high on the list of airports they would want to add.

usflyer msp · Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:39 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:

That’s not true. Just off the top of my head, they’ve added BOS-MSP, EWR-SDQ, FLL-BGI, BOS-HAV, with BOS/JFK-MEX, LGB-BZN,LGB-SUN, LGB-HDN and I think BOS-HDN also in the fall. I can’t remember those other new routes. Oh and BOS-BUR and JFK-ONT. Pretty sure all of those have or will start after BU-LAX.

The person was referring to new roues out of Buffalo. The last add JetBlue made at that airport was the flight to Los Angeles.

JetBlue already serves their main bases ex. Buffalo - Boston, New York JFK, Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando. Maybe they add some additional Florida service? Perhaps Tampa and/or Fort Myers?

Yeah, Southwest and Frontier has the rest of the Florida market covered.

Jeeze looking at B6 destinations map ..... not many destinations that actually make sense, Outside of Florida and where they already fly out of! BUF - SF or BUF to SEA would be welcome additions. Another one would be a seasonal Caribbean destination but that is unlikely too.

The NFTA wants another west coast destination near silicon valley .... San Francisco based on passenger final destinations at BNIA is pretty high on the list of airports they would want to add.

The only possible destination I could see B6 adding from BUF is SJU...other than that they are pretty much maxed out.

ktarabay98 · Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:52 am

usflyer msp wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
B752OS wrote:

The person was referring to new roues out of Buffalo. The last add JetBlue made at that airport was the flight to Los Angeles.

JetBlue already serves their main bases ex. Buffalo - Boston, New York JFK, Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando. Maybe they add some additional Florida service? Perhaps Tampa and/or Fort Myers?

Yeah, Southwest and Frontier has the rest of the Florida market covered.

Jeeze looking at B6 destinations map ..... not many destinations that actually make sense, Outside of Florida and where they already fly out of! BUF - SF or BUF to SEA would be welcome additions. Another one would be a seasonal Caribbean destination but that is unlikely too.

The NFTA wants another west coast destination near silicon valley .... San Francisco based on passenger final destinations at BNIA is pretty high on the list of airports they would want to add.

The only possible destination I could see B6 adding from BUF is SJU...other than that they are pretty much maxed out.

According to RouteShop, Buffalo Airport authority is interested in BUF-SJU nonstop, citing significant Puerto Rican community on Buffalo.

Buffalomatt1027 · Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:10 am

ktarabay98 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Yeah, Southwest and Frontier has the rest of the Florida market covered.

Jeeze looking at B6 destinations map ..... not many destinations that actually make sense, Outside of Florida and where they already fly out of! BUF - SF or BUF to SEA would be welcome additions. Another one would be a seasonal Caribbean destination but that is unlikely too.

The NFTA wants another west coast destination near silicon valley .... San Francisco based on passenger final destinations at BNIA is pretty high on the list of airports they would want to add.

The only possible destination I could see B6 adding from BUF is SJU...other than that they are pretty much maxed out.

According to RouteShop, Buffalo Airport authority is interested in BUF-SJU nonstop, citing significant Puerto Rican community on Buffalo.

Yeah, I know about RouteShop. I know that San Francisco is one of the next cities on their list. The NFTA / someone from the Buffalo airport mentioned it.

SJU- I dont see. Sunwing has been sucessful with Punta Cana and Cancun. They added Jamaica. So B6 could definitely take advantage of these routes. All three of the Sunwing flights are once a week.

tphuang · Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:04 pm

Flightglobal is claiming that B6 will cut more from intra-west coast.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ll-450614/

That's not what I heard on the earning call, but I took a look at their Q1 performance just to see which additional weak routes should be cut. I left out the transcon ones although FLL-LGB is quite weak also.
CityPair Carrier 8Q1 7Q4 7Q1 8Q1 vs 7Q4 8Q1 vs 7Q1
LGBSFO B6 53.06 61.26 60.07 86.61% 88.33%
LGBOAK WN 61.51 66.75 61.47 92.15% 100.07%
LGBOAK B6 55.48 63.07 59.44 87.97% 93.34%
LGBSJC B6 49.66 55.3 47.63 89.80% 104.26%
LGBSMF WN 70.3 65.72 0.000 106.97% N/A
LGBSMF B6 74.65 78.73 86.20 94.82% 86.60%
LGBLAS WN 44.96 47.13 43.29 95.40% 103.86%
LGBLAS B6 61.56 56.82 57.18 108.34% 107.66%
LGBSEA B6 111.48 126.58 100.71 88.07% 110.69%
LGBPDX B6 103.87 117.12 86.49 88.69% 120.09%
LGBRNO B6 79.72 77.29 86.48 103.14% 92.18%
LGBSLC OO 111.87 107.01 108.81 104.54% 102.81%
LGBSLC B6 95.95 87.67 89.89 109.44% 106.74%
LGBAUS B6 136.42 147.21 159.15 92.67% 85.72%

It's pretty brutal for everyone here. Q1 is done for the most part vs Q4, but there were som that performed okay. Vs last year, you have a mix of good or bad. So basically, things aren't getting noticeably better.

As for which routes look okay. SLC seems to be performing okay, as well as PDX/SEA/AUS. Everything else is ripe for getting cut. The entire bay area is a disaster. SMF looks slightly better and same with LAS.

jetbluefan1 · Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:07 pm

Thanks been meaning to get around to commenting on these data, and now with the Q2 quarter in the books it provides for some more food for thought...

tphuang wrote:
First, here are how they did this quarter on some competitive routes vs Q1 last year and Q4 last year. More areas down than up vs Q1 last year, which is to be expected given the added capacity in most of these markets.
CityPair Dist 2018Q1 2017Q4 2017Q1 8Q1 vs 7Q1 8Q1 vs 7Q4
BOSAUS 1698 194.33 206.59 196.91 98.69% 94.07%
BOSBWI 369 77.48 97.17 88.52 87.53% 79.74%
BOSBUF 395 81.11 86.7 82.2 98.67% 93.55%
BOSCLT 728 117.99 131.46 108.6 108.65% 89.75%
BOSORD 867 103.81 128.61 109.9 94.46% 80.72%
BOSCLE 563 103.25 123.52 105.22 98.13% 83.59%
BOSDEN 1754 174.72 181.6 183.83 95.04% 96.21%
BOSDTW 632 101.14 123.76 107.3 94.26% 81.72%
BOSRSW 1249 189.88 177.58 208.88 90.90% 106.93%
BOSJAX 1010 142.81 155.6 170.67 83.68% 91.78%
BOSBNA 942 104.92 128.99 101.81 103.05% 81.34%
BOSMSY 1368 172.63 187.49 198.71 86.88% 92.07%
BOSEWR 200 86.71 92.47 85.81 101.05% 93.77%
BOSPHL 280 111.73 111.48 103.25 108.21% 100.22%
BOSPIT 496 97.35 127.58 122.55 79.44% 76.31%
BOSRDU 612 123.55 167.89 130.43 94.73% 73.59%
BOSRIC 474 91.47 115.08 91.64 99.81% 79.48%
BOSTPA 1185 170.36 157.87 184.24 92.47% 107.91%
BOSIAD 413 95.11 114.09 101.62 93.59% 83.36%
BOSMCO 1121 167.58 158.29 176.83 94.77% 105.87%

This is a breakdown of the markets as a whole. I removed NK from this since they just distort numbers. There is a lot of regional carriers here so you really have to figure out which one represents which. In most cases, it's pretty obvious. On a route like BOS-PIT where both AA and DL fly regional, I assume 9E to be DL and the rest to be AA. I also took out a couple of regional lines that had too few flights to matter.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS LF AvgAsm PRASM vs B6 vs B6 Q4
BOSAUS 1698 DL 12367 220.16 209.42 255.09 76.49% 64.67% 135.44 0.0798 69.70% 81.14%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 17937 197.14 192.85 219.27 83.79% 78.24% 150.89 0.0889 77.64% 87.52%
BOSAUS 1698 B6 22680 228.41 228.52 204.67 99.55% 85.04% 194.33 0.1144 100.00% 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 149243 120.18 120.18 N/A 100.00% 71.10% 85.45 0.2316 110.28% 104.57%
BOSBWI 369 B6 57869 113.2 113.2 N/A 100.00% 68.45% 77.48 0.2100 100.00% 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 9E 10157 122.47 122.36 127.6 97.81% 56.12% 68.67 0.1738 84.66% 79.77%
BOSBUF 395 B6 40592 121.34 120.99 196.83 99.54% 67.04% 81.11 0.2053 100.00% 100.00%
BOSCLT 728 AA 197900 179.05 177.27 245.88 97.41% 82.89% 146.93 0.2018 124.53% 119.63%
BOSCLT 728 B6 25437 144.82 144.82 N/A 100.00% 81.48% 117.99 0.1621 100.00% 100.00%
BOSORD 867 AA 156318 156.98 152.94 278.24 96.77% 81.01% 123.9 0.1429 119.35% 109.56%
BOSORD 867 B6 35467 124.69 124.57 172.26 99.76% 83.33% 103.81 0.1197 100.00% 100.00%
BOSORD 867 UA 153018 156.23 154.32 290.69 98.60% 82.05% 126.62 0.146 121.97% 115.98%
BOSCLE 563 B6 36780 121.83 121.83 N/A 100.00% 84.75% 103.25 0.1834 100.00% 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 EV 14629 166.65 167.46 160.33 88.68% 86.23% 144.4 0.2565 139.86% 132.08%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 40664 216.87 214.81 230.67 87.04% 87.42% 187.79 0.1071 107.48% 116.97%
BOSDEN 1754 B6 39281 218.56 218.26 280.47 99.52% 80.05% 174.72 0.0996 100.00% 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 89599 272.51 269.48 335.75 95.42% 91.25% 245.89 0.1402 140.74% 139.52%
BOSDTW 632 DL 123636 173.55 172.29 289.28 98.92% 77.33% 133.23 0.2108 131.72% 127.83%
BOSDTW 632 B6 41320 130.71 130.71 N/A 100.00% 77.38% 101.14 0.160 100.00% 100.00%
BOSRSW 1249 DL 16675 194.84 185.95 221.5 75.00% 77.91% 144.88 0.116 76.30% 95.21%
BOSRSW 1249 B6 153389 234.52 234.12 298.63 99.38% 81.10% 189.88 0.152 100.00% 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 9E 3406 175.15 172.15 215.83 93.14% 86.18% 148.37 0.1469 103.89% N/A
BOSJAX 1010 YX 2835 191.13 179.5 250.21 83.55% 53.66% 96.32 0.0954 67.45% 71.26%
BOSJAX 1010 B6 40503 173.58 172.42 273.48 98.85% 82.83% 142.81 0.1414 100.00% 100.00%
BOSBNA 942 WN 41810 141.85 139.76 168.85 92.83% 78.66% 109.94 0.1167 104.79% 103.33%
BOSBNA 942 9E 10075 154.48 154.62 152.36 93.44% 72.85% 112.65 0.1196 107.37% 101.66%
BOSBNA 942 YX 4680 161.97 152.31 215.93 84.81% 70.74% 107.74 0.1144 102.69% 111.78%
BOSBNA 942 B6 34470 136.88 136.78 191.13 99.81% 76.70% 104.92 0.1114 100.00% 100.00%
BOSMSY 1368 B6 35824 209.33 209.32 210.59 99.80% 82.47% 172.63 0.1262 100.00% 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 YX 6411 151.53 151.68 115.72 99.58% 81.86% 124.16 0.6208 143.19% 163.12%
BOSEWR 200 B6 43217 133.27 133.27 N/A 100.00% 65.07% 86.71 0.4336 100.00% 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 186294 168.9 168.9 N/A 100.00% 74.60% 126.00 0.6300 145.31% 153.71%
BOSPHL 280 AA 168489 161.98 161.84 237.24 99.80% 78.02% 126.27 0.451 113.01% 117.97%
BOSPHL 280 B6 61069 148.27 148.27 N/A 100.00% 75.36% 111.73 0.399 100.00% 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 9E 9819 138.94 136.95 195.45 96.59% 45.02% 61.65 0.1243 63.33% 72.68%
BOSPIT 496 YX 6271 152.97 146.99 176.97 80.06% 61.12% 89.84 0.1811 92.29% 61.70%
BOSPIT 496 B6 59939 145.52 145.52 N/A 100.00% 66.90% 97.35 0.1963 100.00% 100.00%
BOSRDU 612 OO 5307 176.37 176.37 N/A 100.00% 80.26% 141.56 0.2313 114.58% N/A
BOSRDU 612 DL 10074 168.46 167.41 278.35 99.05% 61.29% 102.6 0.1676 83.05% N/A
BOSRDU 612 G7 17393 175.31 175.12 311.74 99.86% 71.79% 125.71 0.2054 101.76% 100.85%
BOSRDU 612 9E 15983 174.63 173.92 374.06 99.64% 77.06% 134.02 0.219 108.48% 102.67%
BOSRDU 612 B6 60335 152.47 152.47 N/A 100.00% 81.03% 123.55 0.2019 100.00% 100.00%
BOSRIC 474 B6 42797 123.33 123.33 N/A 100.00% 74.17% 91.47 0.193 100.00% 100.00%
BOSRIC 474 EV 17050 136.09 135.95 192.33 99.74% 64.55% 87.76 0.1851 95.94% 105.25%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 38801 194.56 190.3 250.19 92.89% 73.91% 140.66 0.1187 82.57% 92.03%
BOSTPA 1185 B6 84012 200.79 200.69 214.44 99.27% 84.89% 170.36 0.1438 100.00% 100.00%
BOSIAD 413 B6 30840 132.05 132.05 N/A 100.00% 72.02% 95.11 0.2303 100.00% 100.00%
BOSIAD 413 UA 80404 142.37 142.34 183.7 99.93% 76.41% 108.77 0.2634 114.37% 126.58%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 62695 193.63 192.26 208.07 91.35% 82.47% 158.57 0.1415 94.62% 92.61%
BOSMCO 1121 B6 174364 198.66 198.24 222.15 98.28% 84.53% 167.58 0.1495 100.00% 100.00%

Just to explain how this last 2 columns mean. In the case of BOSAUS for DL, they had 69.7% of B6's yield in Q1 and 81.14% of B6's yield in Q4. So if you are B6, you'd like to see the Q1 number to be lower than Q4, since that means they are gaining strength vs competitor.

I think generally, it's a lot of typical up and downs you would see. In some markets they gained a little and other markets they dropped a little. The couple of things that really stood out to me is how much DL struggles on some routes like AUS, PIT, RSW and JAX given that they are running regional jets on them, which should be easier to fill at higher fares.

Another part I looked at are routes that B6 doesn't fly. And I think it shows exactly why they should enter some of these midwestern markets.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS LF AvgAsm PRASM
BOSCVG 752 DL 17307 326.54 326.27 343.83 98.46% 44.38% 144.8 0.1926
BOSCVG 752 9E 13167 311.25 310.3 338.09 96.58% 68.22% 211.69 0.2815
BOSCMH 640 WN 12446 178.48 174.96 190.29 77.02% 52.33% 91.55 0.1431
BOSCMH 640 YX 20208 222.44 220.02 248.94 91.62% 73.08% 160.79 0.2512
BOSIND 818 WN 13619 146.96 138.89 188.53 83.75% 55.62% 77.25 0.0944
BOSIND 818 YX 20209 206.34 206.74 203.19 88.63% 78.27% 161.81 0.1978
BOSMCI 1256 WN 15894 183.59 176.61 200.42 70.71% 72.74% 128.48 0.1023
BOSMCI 1256 9E 5006 168.81 164.4 193.65 84.94% 54.90% 90.26 0.0719
BOSMKE 860 WN 10861 168.26 164.38 194.41 87.07% 51.08% 83.96 0.0976
BOSMKE 860 YX 11333 201.34 200.74 209.36 93.03% 65.61% 131.7 0.1531
even aside from CVG which has no competitors, DL really kills WN on CMH/IND/MKE. BOS-CMH/IND are markets they should enter. I don't see how these would be tougher markets than BOS-RDU, which B6 does really well in.

The drop in yields in most BOS markets is pretty notable, and I think it could be suggested that BOS is no longer B6's most profitable focus city (although still quite profitable). When you combine these numbers with the drop in BOS transcon fares, I wouldn't be surprised if FLL now leapfrogged BOS. Maybe JFK has too.

That being said, DL's numbers range from 'meh' to downright ugly, especially when you consider that DL has F on every single flight. Not only does DL not come near to producing the same revenue as B6, but it's also operating higher CASM aircraft in most of these markets. Low fares + high costs...how is this sustainable, especially in an age of rising fuel prices?

We've seen DL and B6 coexist nicely at JFK, but to a large extent that came from AA's retrenchment (or "rightsizing"), and its debatable if DL is really making all that much money at JFK. AA was until recently #2 at BOS, and there isn't much left for them to drop outside of their hubs (and maybe some LAX frequencies, as they are getting demolished by B6). If DL is going to poach B6 customers, they're going to need to fill in the BOS map further with at least a couple flights to Chicago, DC, Dallas, Houston, Miami and maybe even Denver and Phoenix. Somehow, I don't think AA/UA/WN will be happy about any of that, and neither would DL shareholders...

tphuang wrote:
Flightglobal is claiming that B6 will cut more from intra-west coast.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ll-450614/

That's not what I heard on the earning call, but I took a look at their Q1 performance just to see which additional weak routes should be cut. I left out the transcon ones although FLL-LGB is quite weak also.
CityPair Carrier 8Q1 7Q4 7Q1 8Q1 vs 7Q4 8Q1 vs 7Q1
LGBSFO B6 53.06 61.26 60.07 86.61% 88.33%
LGBOAK WN 61.51 66.75 61.47 92.15% 100.07%
LGBOAK B6 55.48 63.07 59.44 87.97% 93.34%
LGBSJC B6 49.66 55.3 47.63 89.80% 104.26%
LGBSMF WN 70.3 65.72 0.000 106.97% N/A
LGBSMF B6 74.65 78.73 86.20 94.82% 86.60%
LGBLAS WN 44.96 47.13 43.29 95.40% 103.86%
LGBLAS B6 61.56 56.82 57.18 108.34% 107.66%
LGBSEA B6 111.48 126.58 100.71 88.07% 110.69%
LGBPDX B6 103.87 117.12 86.49 88.69% 120.09%
LGBRNO B6 79.72 77.29 86.48 103.14% 92.18%
LGBSLC OO 111.87 107.01 108.81 104.54% 102.81%
LGBSLC B6 95.95 87.67 89.89 109.44% 106.74%
LGBAUS B6 136.42 147.21 159.15 92.67% 85.72%

It's pretty brutal for everyone here. Q1 is done for the most part vs Q4, but there were som that performed okay. Vs last year, you have a mix of good or bad. So basically, things aren't getting noticeably better.

As for which routes look okay. SLC seems to be performing okay, as well as PDX/SEA/AUS. Everything else is ripe for getting cut. The entire bay area is a disaster. SMF looks slightly better and same with LAS.

What a disaster.

PDX/SEA/AUS/SLC do "okay", but that's only a relative basis against the pathetic LAS/RNO and Bay Area numbers. Those numbers wouldn't be tolerated on similarly-distanced flights from JFK/BOS/FLL.

We should find out over the next couple days, but if I had to place bets, I'd say all of these LGB flights are gone, with links only to JFK/BOS. I see FLL moving to BUR, or perhaps a third Mint frequency to LAX is added instead (which would be a smart move).

CaptPizzaPants · Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:20 pm

JetBlue is adding Mint to JFK-LIR along with BOS-UVF:

Our seasonal JFK-LIR Mint service, which will operate on Saturdays starting Dec. 15, makes us the only airline to offer a lie-flat premium seat between the U.S. and Costa Rica.

Saturday Mint Schedule between New York (JFK) and Liberia (LIR)

Beginning Dec. 15, 2018

JFK - LIR Flight #1691

LIR - JFK Flight #1692

1025 – 1449

1615 – 2214

As well, we’ll add Mint service to our Saturday flights between BOS and St. Lucia (UVF) starting Nov. 3, which will complement our existing seasonal JFK-UVF Mint service and will become our ninth Mint route from Logan.

Saturday Mint Schedule between Boston (BOS) and St. Lucia (UVF)

Beginning Nov. 3, 2018

BOS - UVF Flight #363

UVF - BOS Flight #364

0730 – 1219

1344 - 1859

tphuang · Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:24 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks been meaning to get around to commenting on these data, and now with the Q2 quarter in the books it provides for some more food for thought...

The drop in yields in most BOS markets is pretty notable, and I think it could be suggested that BOS is no longer B6's most profitable focus city (although still quite profitable). When you combine these numbers with the drop in BOS transcon fares, I wouldn't be surprised if FLL now leapfrogged BOS. Maybe JFK has too.

It's interesting looking at their slides. Last year, BOS was always the first item in the list with comments like most profitable or some form of building margin. This year so far, they are the second item behind NYC and just says "strengthening business franchise". It's inevitable with DL's adds that BOS will become less profitable.

That being said, DL's numbers range from 'meh' to downright ugly, especially when you consider that DL has F on every single flight. Not only does DL not come near to producing the same revenue as B6, but it's also operating higher CASM aircraft in most of these markets. Low fares + high costs...how is this sustainable, especially in an age of rising fuel prices?

We've seen DL and B6 coexist nicely at JFK, but to a large extent that came from AA's retrenchment (or "rightsizing"), and its debatable if DL is really making all that much money at JFK. AA was until recently #2 at BOS, and there isn't much left for them to drop outside of their hubs (and maybe some LAX frequencies, as they are getting demolished by B6). If DL is going to poach B6 customers, they're going to need to fill in the BOS map further with at least a couple flights to Chicago, DC, Dallas, Houston, Miami and maybe even Denver and Phoenix. Somehow, I don't think AA/UA/WN will be happy about any of that, and neither would DL shareholders...

I don't see how DL's BOS adds are sustainable. Especially a route like BOS-PIT, where B6 is down over 20% YoY and still 60% higher than DL's yield. I haven't seen any evidence they are poaching B6 customers, but it's still early. Delta does make a lot of money elsewhere, so we'll see how long this last. In the long run, if high fuel prices and worsening economy means DL will retreat from BOS at some point, I think B6 will take the short term hit on their profit. And I think that's what they are counting on. But they have to move into some of the markets that DL is still making money on like IND/CVG/CMH. I think they are hoping to expand market share to closer to 40% at BOS and making it one of the most profitable hubs of any airlines in the nation. While they might be more profitable at JFK currently, it will always be limited by lack of slots at LGA.

What a disaster.

PDX/SEA/AUS/SLC do "okay", but that's only a relative basis against the pathetic LAS/RNO and Bay Area numbers. Those numbers wouldn't be tolerated on similarly-distanced flights from JFK/BOS/FLL.

We should find out over the next couple days, but if I had to place bets, I'd say all of these LGB flights are gone, with links only to JFK/BOS. I see FLL moving to BUR, or perhaps a third Mint frequency to LAX is added instead (which would be a smart move).

that and those HAV flights are probably the biggest drag on their PnL. I agreed that in this toughening environment, it might make sense to just leave completely outside of JFK/BOS.

wnflyguy · Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:06 pm

I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

737307 · Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:21 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

(Emphasis mine)

Why would JetBlue go into a trench war with AA and fly from a non-hub (LGB) to a competitor hub (DFW, ORD)? Makes no sense at all, unless you want B6 to lose even more money. LGB to BOS/JFK seems to work. Maybe there is money in LGB-FLL as well. But that's pretty much it. Anything else will become a War of Attrition.

PlanesNTrains · Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:39 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

Short of having a place to park aircraft and crews, I’m not sure what value SEA or PDX bring to the table?

fastmover · Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:16 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

Speculation from who?

nine4nine · Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:24 pm

fastmover wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

Speculation from who?

See the link above. Some B6 management employees on the forum concur as well. When B6 is bleeding money laying off upper level management and per 2nd quarter results LGB is basically a turd on a platter for them. Low yields across the board ESPECIALLY short haul west coast/intra-California. LGB is toast. I’d bet soon to see only JFK,BOS, and Maybe a FLL or MCO and that’s about it.

masseybrown · Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:52 pm

ktarabay98 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
According to RouteShop, Buffalo Airport authority is interested in BUF-SJU nonstop, citing significant Puerto Rican community on Buffalo.

So is CLE. UA cut CLE-SJU for the coming winter, leaving a substantial ethnic population (60K people?) unserved. Couple times a week would be great.

fastmover · Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:55 pm

nine4nine wrote:
fastmover wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

Speculation from who?

See the link above. Some B6 management employees on the forum concur as well. When B6 is bleeding money laying off upper level management and per 2nd quarter results LGB is basically a turd on a platter for them. Low yields across the board ESPECIALLY short haul west coast/intra-California. LGB is toast. I’d bet soon to see only JFK,BOS, and Maybe a FLL or MCO and that’s about it.

Which link? Who is the b6 management that is saying it’s all going?
Also B6 is hardly bleeding money yet again I don’t know why that keeps being repeated. And the layoff was fairly small and pretty much a reorganization. I think people are making it more than it is to fit a stroryline.

Edit. I see the link. Again it’s a little confusing and I think they are mixing things together. We know they already announced the LGB cuts...full stop. On this earnings call they also talked more about Long Beach and also talked about cuts in the system. But I don’t think they said more Long Beach cuts. Again I could be wrong but I doubt you will see them massively pull out of there.

PlanesNTrains · Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:56 pm

fastmover wrote:
Which link? Who is the b6 management that is saying it’s all going?
Also B6 is hardly bleeding money yet again I don’t know why that keeps being repeated. And the layoff was fairly small and pretty much a reorganization. I think people are making it more than it is to fit a stroryline.

Edit. I see the link. Again it’s a little confusing and I think they are mixing things together. We know they already announced the LGB cuts...full stop. On this earnings call they also talked more about Long Beach and also talked about cuts in the system. But I don’t think they said more Long Beach cuts. Again I could be wrong but I doubt you will see them massively pull out of there.

We know they already announced some LGB cuts. Whether they are all the cuts or just a first round is I guess open to interpretation at this point:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ll-450614/

JetBlue Airways will reduce capacity growth by about two points in the fourth quarter and cull unprofitable flying, as part of an effort to lift margins amid higher fuel prices.

The capacity cuts will run through schedules in the "upcoming days" and will be effective September, says executive vice-president of commercial and planning Marty St George in an earnings call.

...

JetBlue's plans to reduce service within the US west coast is the latest step in a retreat in that market, following its disappointment at Long Beach where it failed to win city council approval in early 2017 to begin international flights.

This April, the airline announced it would slash a third of its flights out of the airport starting in early September.

St George, who says the airline had "great hopes" for Long Beach, calls the intra-west market a "very tough yield environment".

"As the number five player it wasn't really a place for us… We wish things would have worked out at the airport but unfortunately it didn't work out so we would just have to move on."

tphuang · Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:00 pm

I was in the middle of analyzing JFK airport competitive trends for B6 vs DL/AA for many of the main competitive routes, when I noticed that B6 RASM for many of the non-mint routes have been decreasing vs DL/AA since I started doing the comparison from 2015 data. Now generally, I have been going by the theory that DL has gained in NYC whereas AA has weakened. So this result did not make a lot of sense to me. And then looking deeper, i realized that much of this is due to up gauging at JFK airport.

Now, I did some cost analysis. I started with the baseline of 150 seat A320 being the point of comparison and I set E90 as 80% of that in operating cost. That's based on B6 comment that E90 CASM is about 20% higher than A320 (math works out, believe me). And then A321 is 10 to 15% higher cost to operate. Now, I might be slightly overestimating the cost of A321, since I adjusted it so that 159 seat A321 mint is slightly over 6% of 150 seat A320 operating cost. In reality, i'm not properly accounting for the additional catering cost of mint aircraft.

So based on these analysis, the maximum cost is 1.2 (20% more than A320) for an all E90 route or 0.85 (15% less than A320) for an all 200 seat A321 route. You will see that 190 seat A321 also changes the cost equation.

CityPair 8Q1 321% 7Q1 321% 6Q3 321% 6Q1 321% 5Q3 321% 5Q1 321%
JFKAUS 0.9761 0.00% 1.0549 0.00% 1.0267 0.00% 1.1704 9.69% 1.0772 0.83% 1.0113 0.00%
JFKBOS 1.1828 0.18% 1.1497 0.77% 1.1191 0.00% 1.1481 0.11% 1.123 0.26% 1.1302 0.14%
JFKCLT 1.1868 1.17% 1.1982 0.00% 1.1991 0.00% 1.1982 0.00% 1.1992 0.00% 1.200 0.00%
JFKORD 1.1907 0.00% 1.1263 0.00% 1.0687 0.23% 1.0805 0.00% 1.0616 0.44% 1.0794 0.00%
JFKFLL 0.8824 78.87% 0.8742 84.36% 0.9226 92.44% 0.9499 49.38% 0.9998 14.15% 0.9854 25.49%
JFKLAS 0.9824 99.67% 0.8795 80.32% 0.9895 9.19% 0.9251 71.13% 0.9684 30.04% 1.000 0.00%
JFKMSY 1.0691 1.79% 1.1442 0.00% 1.0805 0.00% 1.1497 0.00% 1.0007 0.00% 1.1498 0.00%
JFKMCO 0.8767 80.13% 0.8904 75.53% 0.8833 98.62% 0.9856 32.30% 0.9763 22.96% 1.0115 0.95%
JFKRDU 1.1917 0.00% 1.1332 0.00% 1.2000 0.00% 1.2000 0.00% 1.0881 0.00% 1.1982 0.00%
JFKTPA 0.9591 32.31% 0.9757 35.76% 1.0053 0.00% 1.0057 0.00% 1.038 0.00% 1.0111 0.00%
JFKPBI 0.9178 51.52% 0.9354 47.58% 1.0102 1.15% 1.0226 5.19% 1.0484 8.71% 0.9948 10.76%

You can see the effects of up gauging here. Not a surprise that core trunk routes JFK/FLL-MCO saw most of the up gauging. I'm a little surprised they are not closer to 100% A321s, but the overall cost have gone from about equal to an all 150 seat A320 route to 12% lower cost (again, I'm underestimating A321 cost efficiency so it might be even lower cost than this). Short routes like BOS/CLT/ORD/RDU are mostly E90s, but sub in A320/A321 on some occasions (especially summer time). Both JFK-TPA/PBI have also seen up gauging and I would assume this will continue as B6 receives more A321s.

Interesting data point is JFK-LAS which has kept the cost to below that of an all A320 route, by using a combination of mint and HD A321s.

What this doesn't show is the effect on revenue front. Operating a 100-seater E90 results in consistently higher revenue generation ability that sometimes almost entire negates the lower cost of A320. Operating 200-seater A321 sometimes result in much lower revenue generation ability that sometimes almost entires negates its lower cost. The main difference maker seems to be mint configs that manage to keep cost to slightly higher than A320 while generating much higher revenue vs competitors. Based on this, I'm not entirely convinced 200-seat A321s are necessarily margin drivers, but rather tools to more maximizing slot and gate usage.

And anecdotally, it does seem to me that DL has gained in NYC while AA is slowly loosing out. But things are not as conclusive as I originally thought.

tphuang · Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:10 pm

That table didn't show up great. Here is a linked image of the excel table I created. Again, cost of A321 might be overestimated here.

I think what I'm trying to illustrate is that while upgauging may increase seat by 33% in the case of A320 to A321 or 50% from E90 to A320, each case will also increase cost by 10% or 20%, which reduces the CASM gain to 15% to 25%. And depending on the route, you might see a 5 to 20% drop in RASM that in some cases wipe out the benefits of upgauging. This is why reconfiguring A320 to more seat is beneficial even given the extra FA. The added cost is still minimal compared to upgauging from A320 to A321, so CASM may drop close to 8% while RASM drop should be much less than that.

jfklganyc · Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:32 pm

This is where a.net rumor becomes fact and a quote about slowing growth (not actually shrinking) plus a quote of already planned LGB cuts makes a juicy story.

tphuang · Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:48 pm

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=55981
July Traffic report out. LF up, RASM still expected to rise 0 to 3% this quarter. RPM is up 6.2% YoY.

Will be interesting to check their fare numbers for Q3/Q4 once it comes out. They are adding a lot of NYC/BOS to LA area capacity with the LGB cuts. I see some really low y fares to LA area during midweek in September. A lot of low $100 fares from everyone.

JFK-ONT fare numbers look pretty good for a new service. Not so much for BOS-BUR.

usflyer msp · Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:22 am

What is B6 really doing to improve their on-time performance? I am not seeing any results.

Between my friends and I, we have flown MSP-BOS or vv 9 times since May and none of us have had a trip without a significant delay. My best friend flew back last night and was delayed three hours so I decided to look at the on-time percentage for his flight - 23.5%!!!

Not a good start for their MSP ops...

CaptPizzaPants · Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:27 am

i'm going with weather on the east coast driving significant ATC delays. It's been hellacious the past two months at least, maybe more.

tphuang · Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:58 am

usflyer msp wrote:
What is B6 really doing to improve their on-time performance? I am not seeing any results.

Between my friends and I, we have flown MSP-BOS or vv 9 times since May and none of us have had a trip without a significant delay. My best friend flew back last night and was delayed three hours so I decided to look at the on-time percentage for his flight - 23.5%!!!

Not a good start for their MSP ops...

Funny part if you look at flighstats recently, they are actually above airport average in otp for bos. With all the heavy rain we have been getting, there is just going to be delays in nyc and Boston.

They do seem to do a lot worse with flights toward the end of the day.

CaptPizzaPants · Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:29 am

the rain/storms tend to fire-up in the afternoon and last through the evening which explains why they seem to run a good operation from morning to early afternoon. I wish weather delays would receive an asterisk when it came to DOT reporting.

tphuang · Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:01 pm

Some may LF of newly added route.
JFKATL
DL,69987,79572,87.95%
B6,15737,18300,85.99%
BOSATL
WN,22365,26834,83.35%
DL,119459,134254,88.98%
NK,5792,6670,86.84%
B6,34506,42350,81.48%
MCOATL
WN,43474,51082,85.11%
DL,176438,197020,89.55%
NK,17664,20570,85.87%
B6,7562,9300,81.31%
F9,11782,14260,82.62%
FLLATL
WN,45676,51052,89.47%
DL,143833,160769,89.47%
NK,33560,37536,89.41%
B6,16305,18450,88.37%
BOSMSP
B6,19617,25800,76.03%
DL,48451,55833,86.78%
NK,5745,8880,64.70%
SY,17381,22707,76.54%

BOSMSP doesn't look that bad for a new route. I think they may be able to push NK or SY off the route over the next year.

evank516 · Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
What is B6 really doing to improve their on-time performance? I am not seeing any results.

Between my friends and I, we have flown MSP-BOS or vv 9 times since May and none of us have had a trip without a significant delay. My best friend flew back last night and was delayed three hours so I decided to look at the on-time percentage for his flight - 23.5%!!!

Not a good start for their MSP ops...

Funny part if you look at flighstats recently, they are actually above airport average in otp for bos. With all the heavy rain we have been getting, there is just going to be delays in nyc and Boston.

They do seem to do a lot worse with flights toward the end of the day.

This is on time performance for June, this weather pattern we've been stuck in (which, by the way is highly abnormal for the summer months) has been in place since July. Here's an example:
DL2822 on the route JFK-MCO leaves at 8 AM. OTP is 90%. B6 2089 on JFK-MCO departs at 8:05 AM. OTP is 64.7%. Same route, pretty much the same time. Different airline. B6 has a problem.

tphuang · Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:54 pm

evank516 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
What is B6 really doing to improve their on-time performance? I am not seeing any results.

Between my friends and I, we have flown MSP-BOS or vv 9 times since May and none of us have had a trip without a significant delay. My best friend flew back last night and was delayed three hours so I decided to look at the on-time percentage for his flight - 23.5%!!!

Not a good start for their MSP ops...

Funny part if you look at flighstats recently, they are actually above airport average in otp for bos. With all the heavy rain we have been getting, there is just going to be delays in nyc and Boston.

They do seem to do a lot worse with flights toward the end of the day.

This is on time performance for June, this weather pattern we've been stuck in (which, by the way is highly abnormal for the summer months) has been in place since July. Here's an example:
DL2822 on the route JFK-MCO leaves at 8 AM. OTP is 90%. B6 2089 on JFK-MCO departs at 8:05 AM. OTP is 64.7%. Same route, pretty much the same time. Different airline. B6 has a problem.

I think that might be an extreme example. As I said in the summer season when B6 runs 175 daily flights out of JFK, they do seem to do about 5% below average. But during winter season when they were at 150 to 155 daily flights, they were at or slightly better than average just based on my anecdotal checks.

On the other hand, BOS during summer time (about 150 to 150 flights) is at or slightly better than average. And in winter time when they were at 165 flights, they were probably 5% below average.

They definitely have a problem, but it gets overstated sometimes.

evank516 · Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
evank516 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Funny part if you look at flighstats recently, they are actually above airport average in otp for bos. With all the heavy rain we have been getting, there is just going to be delays in nyc and Boston.

They do seem to do a lot worse with flights toward the end of the day.

This is on time performance for June, this weather pattern we've been stuck in (which, by the way is highly abnormal for the summer months) has been in place since July. Here's an example:
DL2822 on the route JFK-MCO leaves at 8 AM. OTP is 90%. B6 2089 on JFK-MCO departs at 8:05 AM. OTP is 64.7%. Same route, pretty much the same time. Different airline. B6 has a problem.

I think that might be an extreme example. As I said in the summer season when B6 runs 175 daily flights out of JFK, they do seem to do about 5% below average. But during winter season when they were at 150 to 155 daily flights, they were at or slightly better than average just based on my anecdotal checks.

On the other hand, BOS during summer time (about 150 to 150 flights) is at or slightly better than average. And in winter time when they were at 165 flights, they were probably 5% below average.

They definitely have a problem, but it gets overstated sometimes.

A 25.3% difference in OTP is grounds for overstatement. Same origin, same destination, similar aircraft, similar times. I'm willing to bet that the majority of flights I find with DL will have a higher OTP than a comparable flight on jetBlue. Let's not forget that DL runs a pretty hefty schedule out of JFK as well, and considering the higher market share in JFK than jetBlue. Here's another example...JFK-ATL:
DL1054 departs JFK at 3:00 PM and arrives ATL at 5:49 PM. B6 719 departs JFK at 2:59 PM and arrives ATL at 5:44 PM. DL's OTP is 87% while B6 is 76.7%. Again, DL outperforms B6 with a double digit margin.

I'll give them JFK-FLL where B6 seems to have OTP over 80% on all flights from the sampling until the evening where B6 1201 (6:30 PM departure) underperforms DL2108 (7:29 PM departure) by 18.7%. However, I wouldn't use these two for comparison since departure times are an hour apart.

av8orwalk · Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:48 pm

I commute on 2089 weekly. It turns to MCO from a red eye, usually RNO or DEN. If the red eye is late, 2089 is late. If the red eye is on time, 2089 is on time.

tphuang · Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:37 pm

evank516 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
evank516 wrote:

This is on time performance for June, this weather pattern we've been stuck in (which, by the way is highly abnormal for the summer months) has been in place since July. Here's an example:
DL2822 on the route JFK-MCO leaves at 8 AM. OTP is 90%. B6 2089 on JFK-MCO departs at 8:05 AM. OTP is 64.7%. Same route, pretty much the same time. Different airline. B6 has a problem.

I think that might be an extreme example. As I said in the summer season when B6 runs 175 daily flights out of JFK, they do seem to do about 5% below average. But during winter season when they were at 150 to 155 daily flights, they were at or slightly better than average just based on my anecdotal checks.

On the other hand, BOS during summer time (about 150 to 150 flights) is at or slightly better than average. And in winter time when they were at 165 flights, they were probably 5% below average.

They definitely have a problem, but it gets overstated sometimes.

A 25.3% difference in OTP is grounds for overstatement. Same origin, same destination, similar aircraft, similar times. I'm willing to bet that the majority of flights I find with DL will have a higher OTP than a comparable flight on jetBlue. Let's not forget that DL runs a pretty hefty schedule out of JFK as well, and considering the higher market share in JFK than jetBlue. Here's another example...JFK-ATL:
DL1054 departs JFK at 3:00 PM and arrives ATL at 5:49 PM. B6 719 departs JFK at 2:59 PM and arrives ATL at 5:44 PM. DL's OTP is 87% while B6 is 76.7%. Again, DL outperforms B6 with a double digit margin.

I'll give them JFK-FLL where B6 seems to have OTP over 80% on all flights from the sampling until the evening where B6 1201 (6:30 PM departure) underperforms DL2108 (7:29 PM departure) by 18.7%. However, I wouldn't use these two for comparison since departure times are an hour apart.

I'm not disputing that DL currently outperforms B6 out of JFK and that B6 needs to improve in this area. I'm simply saying they seem to do better when they are not running as many flights. B6 typically stretches its resources much thinner than DL and lost a couple of E90s for the summer. Which really hurt them in summer time. So hopefully with those E90s coming back and a new pilot contract that requires higher level of staffing, this will be less of a problem going forward.

evank516 · Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
evank516 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I think that might be an extreme example. As I said in the summer season when B6 runs 175 daily flights out of JFK, they do seem to do about 5% below average. But during winter season when they were at 150 to 155 daily flights, they were at or slightly better than average just based on my anecdotal checks.

On the other hand, BOS during summer time (about 150 to 150 flights) is at or slightly better than average. And in winter time when they were at 165 flights, they were probably 5% below average.

They definitely have a problem, but it gets overstated sometimes.

A 25.3% difference in OTP is grounds for overstatement. Same origin, same destination, similar aircraft, similar times. I'm willing to bet that the majority of flights I find with DL will have a higher OTP than a comparable flight on jetBlue. Let's not forget that DL runs a pretty hefty schedule out of JFK as well, and considering the higher market share in JFK than jetBlue. Here's another example...JFK-ATL:
DL1054 departs JFK at 3:00 PM and arrives ATL at 5:49 PM. B6 719 departs JFK at 2:59 PM and arrives ATL at 5:44 PM. DL's OTP is 87% while B6 is 76.7%. Again, DL outperforms B6 with a double digit margin.

I'll give them JFK-FLL where B6 seems to have OTP over 80% on all flights from the sampling until the evening where B6 1201 (6:30 PM departure) underperforms DL2108 (7:29 PM departure) by 18.7%. However, I wouldn't use these two for comparison since departure times are an hour apart.

I'm not disputing that DL currently outperforms B6 out of JFK and that B6 needs to improve in this area. I'm simply saying they seem to do better when they are not running as many flights. B6 typically stretches its resources much thinner than DL and lost a couple of E90s for the summer. Which really hurt them in summer time. So hopefully with those E90s coming back and a new pilot contract that requires higher level of staffing, this will be less of a problem going forward.

We can hope. This problem with B6 has been going on for quite some time now.

nine4nine · Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:16 am

B6 launched BUR-BOS this week and the second BUR-JFK daytime flight. Anyone have an idea what the numbers are looking on these flights so far and with future bookings?

tphuang · Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:32 pm

nine4nine wrote:
B6 launched BUR-BOS this week and the second BUR-JFK daytime flight. Anyone have an idea what the numbers are looking on these flights so far and with future bookings?

it's going to be hard to say for a while. My guess is JFK-BUR remains their best performing non-mint transcon. BOS-BUR is really not timed very well.

jetbluefan1 · Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
Some may LF of newly added route.
JFKATL
DL,69987,79572,87.95%
B6,15737,18300,85.99%
BOSATL
WN,22365,26834,83.35%
DL,119459,134254,88.98%
NK,5792,6670,86.84%
B6,34506,42350,81.48%
MCOATL
WN,43474,51082,85.11%
DL,176438,197020,89.55%
NK,17664,20570,85.87%
B6,7562,9300,81.31%
F9,11782,14260,82.62%
FLLATL
WN,45676,51052,89.47%
DL,143833,160769,89.47%
NK,33560,37536,89.41%
B6,16305,18450,88.37%
BOSMSP
B6,19617,25800,76.03%
DL,48451,55833,86.78%
NK,5745,8880,64.70%
SY,17381,22707,76.54%

BOSMSP doesn't look that bad for a new route. I think they may be able to push NK or SY off the route over the next year.

Happy to see ATL improving. JFKATL has 1x A321 running on some weekends. Will be interesting to see Q2 fare data. MSP seems to be off to a better start although I doubt the yields are great.

nine4nine wrote:
B6 launched BUR-BOS this week and the second BUR-JFK daytime flight. Anyone have an idea what the numbers are looking on these flights so far and with future bookings?

tphuang wrote:
it's going to be hard to say for a while. My guess is JFK-BUR remains their best performing non-mint transcon. BOS-BUR is really not timed very well.

Based on the seat maps and walk up fares, this looks like a total bust. The timing of the red eye is egregious. Who wants to arrive in BOS at 4:48M? Ouch.

Moreover B6 added a second BOSLGB flight. That’s a lot of additional capacity to LA and probably makes them the largest carrier on BOS to LA Basin market. Frankly I don’t understand why they didn’t just build on their BOSLAX operation where they have become the fare leader and are catching up to AA in market share.

wnflyguy · Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:37 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Some may LF of newly added route.
JFKATL
DL,69987,79572,87.95%
B6,15737,18300,85.99%
BOSATL
WN,22365,26834,83.35%
DL,119459,134254,88.98%
NK,5792,6670,86.84%
B6,34506,42350,81.48%
MCOATL
WN,43474,51082,85.11%
DL,176438,197020,89.55%
NK,17664,20570,85.87%
B6,7562,9300,81.31%
F9,11782,14260,82.62%
FLLATL
WN,45676,51052,89.47%
DL,143833,160769,89.47%
NK,33560,37536,89.41%
B6,16305,18450,88.37%
BOSMSP
B6,19617,25800,76.03%
DL,48451,55833,86.78%
NK,5745,8880,64.70%
SY,17381,22707,76.54%

BOSMSP doesn't look that bad for a new route. I think they may be able to push NK or SY off the route over the next year.

Happy to see ATL improving. JFKATL has 1x A321 running on some weekends. Will be interesting to see Q2 fare data. MSP seems to be off to a better start although I doubt the yields are great.

nine4nine wrote:
B6 launched BUR-BOS this week and the second BUR-JFK daytime flight. Anyone have an idea what the numbers are looking on these flights so far and with future bookings?

tphuang wrote:
it's going to be hard to say for a while. My guess is JFK-BUR remains their best performing non-mint transcon. BOS-BUR is really not timed very well.

Based on the seat maps and walk up fares, this looks like a total bust. The timing of the red eye is egregious. Who wants to arrive in BOS at 4:48M? Ouch.

Moreover B6 added a second BOSLGB flight. That’s a lot of additional capacity to LA and probably makes them the largest carrier on BOS to LA Basin market. Frankly I don’t understand why they didn’t just build on their BOSLAX operation where they have become the fare leader and are catching up to AA in market share.

JetBlue at LAX is already at maximum gate capacity.
LAWA going to relocate a few more airlines to the Mid field terminal when it's completed.
Last heard JetBlue,Spirit,Frontier and Allegiant were all scheduled to relocate there.
As of now JetBlue in a 3 way battle with WN for the planned terminal Zero gates and United for the terminal 8 gates.

Flyguy

tphuang · Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:21 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Some may LF of newly added route.
JFKATL
DL,69987,79572,87.95%
B6,15737,18300,85.99%
BOSATL
WN,22365,26834,83.35%
DL,119459,134254,88.98%
NK,5792,6670,86.84%
B6,34506,42350,81.48%
MCOATL
WN,43474,51082,85.11%
DL,176438,197020,89.55%
NK,17664,20570,85.87%
B6,7562,9300,81.31%
F9,11782,14260,82.62%
FLLATL
WN,45676,51052,89.47%
DL,143833,160769,89.47%
NK,33560,37536,89.41%
B6,16305,18450,88.37%
BOSMSP
B6,19617,25800,76.03%
DL,48451,55833,86.78%
NK,5745,8880,64.70%
SY,17381,22707,76.54%

BOSMSP doesn't look that bad for a new route. I think they may be able to push NK or SY off the route over the next year.

Happy to see ATL improving. JFKATL has 1x A321 running on some weekends. Will be interesting to see Q2 fare data. MSP seems to be off to a better start although I doubt the yields are great.

nine4nine wrote:
B6 launched BUR-BOS this week and the second BUR-JFK daytime flight. Anyone have an idea what the numbers are looking on these flights so far and with future bookings?

tphuang wrote:
it's going to be hard to say for a while. My guess is JFK-BUR remains their best performing non-mint transcon. BOS-BUR is really not timed very well.

Based on the seat maps and walk up fares, this looks like a total bust. The timing of the red eye is egregious. Who wants to arrive in BOS at 4:48M? Ouch.

Moreover B6 added a second BOSLGB flight. That’s a lot of additional capacity to LA and probably makes them the largest carrier on BOS to LA Basin market. Frankly I don’t understand why they didn’t just build on their BOSLAX operation where they have become the fare leader and are catching up to AA in market share.

JetBlue at LAX is already at maximum gate capacity.
LAWA going to relocate a few more airlines to the Mid field terminal when it's completed.
Last heard JetBlue,Spirit,Frontier and Allegiant were all scheduled to relocate there.
As of now JetBlue in a 3 way battle with WN for the planned terminal Zero gates and United for the terminal 8 gates.

Flyguy

They can always add a few more flights at lax. They are only doing 7 turns a day per gate and the cute gates are even more open since nk cut flights. I think maybe they don’t think la basin could support more premium capacity? Either way, pretty ambitious to add 2 more flights to la area. Especially at the schedule they are using.

adamh8297 · Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:53 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Who wants to arrive in BOS at 4:48M? Ouch.

I guess someone who really doesn't want to fly in/out of LAX or LGB.

cpl22586 · Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:53 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think JetBlue needs to keep LGB but instead of fly low yielding west coast short hops. Add LGB-DFW,LGB-ORD,LGB-HOU,LGB-TPA,LGB-MCO ect ect play to their strengths of long hauls.

Lots of speculation that LGB-LAS,SFO,SMF,OAK,SJC,RNO are all being eliminated by November 2.

Flyguy

JetBlue is keeping the LGB - LAS flights they are going from 6 a day down to 3. LGB- SFO is going down to 2 daily flights from 5. LGB - SMF is staying at the current level of 2 daily flights. LGB - OAK is going from 4 flights a day down to 2. LGB - SJC is going from 4 daily flights down to 2. LGB - RNO is staying at 1 daily flight

SurfandSnow · Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 pm

cpl22586 wrote:
JetBlue is keeping the LGB - LAS flights they are going from 6 a day down to 3. LGB- SFO is going down to 2 daily flights from 5. LGB - SMF is staying at the current level of 2 daily flights. LGB - OAK is going from 4 flights a day down to 2. LGB - SJC is going from 4 daily flights down to 2. LGB - RNO is staying at 1 daily flight

There is absolutely no way that this is a sustainable strategy going forward. Frequency isn't of much concern on the LGB-LAS/RNO routes, and perhaps not surprisingly, it sounds like those routes do relatively well. However, B6 now operates LGB-OAK/SMF at half the frequency of WN (WN recently increased LGB-SMF to 4x daily thanks to the "temporary" slots available by virtue of the B6 cuts) while LGB-SFO/SJC schedules are now vastly inferior to those available on a variety of carriers from all other Greater Los Angeles airports (BUR, LAX, ONT and SNA). I just can't see any way for B6 to keep flying LGB-OAK/SFO/SJC/SMF. They've tried higher business friendly frequencies, adjusting operations on a seasonal basis, even downgauging to E-190s. Nothing seems to mitigate the poor yields that have plagued LGB for decades. Oddly enough, B6 still has not yet officially surrendered any LGB slots. It almost seems like B6 is trying to get concessions from employees, strike some sort of deal with the airport and/or other carrier, or wait to see how LGB-BZN/HDN pan out. In any case, I expect we will hear more news on this matter in the coming months.

isp2 · Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:11 am

I’m hearing there are 6-8 BlueCities on the chopping block in the very near future... a handful of which have been on the routemap from the very beginning (00-02)

WeatherPilot · Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:09 am

isp2 wrote:
I’m hearing there are 6-8 BlueCities on the chopping block in the very near future... a handful of which have been on the routemap from the very beginning (00-02)

I'm guessing DEN, PHX, MSY

fastmover · Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:11 am

isp2 wrote:
I’m hearing there are 6-8 BlueCities on the chopping block in the very near future... a handful of which have been on the routemap from the very beginning (00-02)

Where are you hearing this?
Very very rarely does jetblue abandon a city. They only fly to like 102 so 6-8 would be a huge pull back.
First I have heard of anything like this.

jbpdx · Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:15 am

They are withering at PDX.

FlyBTV · Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:41 am

isp2 wrote:
I’m hearing there are 6-8 BlueCities on the chopping block in the very near future... a handful of which have been on the routemap from the very beginning (00-02)

That concerns me greatly since BTV is in that category and as the smallest city that B6 serves, I could see it as a prime candidate for elimination. Not sure what else falls into that category that could be cut. PWM? I think the upstate NY stuff does pretty well. Maybe something west coast? Wondering if IAD would be cut. That’s been around for a while and the IAD-JFK flights don’t seem to generate higher yields. No idea about BOS-IAD. PIT perhaps? CLE? 6-8 is a big number.

I no longer live in BTV, but travel back there with some frequency, and I’d have a lot of concerns about what would happen to airfares if they exited that market. I also worked for them for two years at BTV when I was attending UVM and have a lot of fond memories of being part of the operation there. They’ve been a fixture of BTV for so long, I can’t imagine the airport without them. But I don’t think the yields on those flights are great and the legacies have stepped up service to multiple destinations (upgauging and adding mainline flights in some instances).

Hoping I’m wrong about that, but with the phase-out of the 190s coming, it’s something I’ve been concerned about. The first year I was there they were flying 4x 320s a day BTV-JFK, but they’ve cut down to 3x 190s in recent years. If they drop BTV, I may have to reconsider my longstanding loyalty to them.

Edit: With the addition of Steamboat Springs and Bozeman, BTV is probably no longer the smallest, but I believe those are seasonal destinations.

joeblow10 · Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:48 am

I would agree with the assessment a few posts up - seems to me the places that are struggling and have very little impact to the system are outstations out in the Midwest and West (especially DEN, PHX, ABQ, MSP, etc.) and maybe a few smaller ones back East.

At DEN/PHX/ABQ, having 1-2 redeyes a day as the only service for large portions of the year seems pretty low value-add, and something that if the company needs to scale back makes for an obvious first choice on the chopping block. ANC also seems like it's bound to go - the yields have got to be terrible and service is extremely limited: lots of competition, and B6 is always the cheapest one on the block to incentivize SEA/PDX based folks to actually fly them over AS or DL.

jetbluefan1 · Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:13 am

fastmover wrote:
isp2 wrote:
I’m hearing there are 6-8 BlueCities on the chopping block in the very near future... a handful of which have been on the routemap from the very beginning (00-02)

Where are you hearing this?
Very very rarely does jetblue abandon a city. They only fly to like 102 so 6-8 would be a huge pull back.
First I have heard of anything like this.

isp2 wrote:
I’m hearing there are 6-8 BlueCities on the chopping block in the very near future... a handful of which have been on the routemap from the very beginning (00-02)

If true, I would place my bets on OAK, SJC, ABQ, ANC, IAD, and last but not least....LGB.

OAK/SJC - The transcons from JFK/BOS generally underperform other non-Mint transcons, and with a robust schedule from SFO, it makes it hard to justify the costs of maintaining these flights. LGB frequencies have already been chopped down to 2x and are bound to go to zero quickly.

ABQ - Always one of B6’s marginal transcons, and the single red eye probably does not capture much of the already very limited demand from New Yorkers.

ANC - As noted B6 constantly is the low-fare leader, and generally looks to capture O&D demand. B6 clearly can not compete with AS/DL from PDX/SEA, and is not in the business of transitting Bostonians or New Yorkers on generally low-fare itineraries.

IAD - Although N. Va is growing quickly, B6 has a not insignificant presence at DCA (and also BWI) for those looking to get to the general DC metropolis. IAD remains the highest cost airport amongst the 3 airports I believe, and it’s hard to see how B6 is capturing any lucrative business on its token 2-3x to BOS/JFK.

LGB - I expect the non-JFK/BOS flights to go first. If and when B6 gets into SNA, that capacity can be shifted over and probably generate higher yields (and is perhaps a Mint candidate).

joeblow10 wrote:
I would agree with the assessment a few posts up - seems to me the places that are struggling and have very little impact to the system are outstations out in the Midwest and West (especially DEN, PHX, ABQ, MSP, etc.) and maybe a few smaller ones back East.

At DEN/PHX/ABQ, having 1-2 redeyes a day as the only service for large portions of the year seems pretty low value-add, and something that if the company needs to scale back makes for an obvious first choice on the chopping block. ANC also seems like it's bound to go - the yields have got to be terrible and service is extremely limited: lots of competition, and B6 is always the cheapest one on the block to incentivize SEA/PDX based folks to actually fly them over AS or DL.

B6 is actually decently competitive at DEN (2x each to JFK/BOS with JFK usually A321’s), and it’s such a large market with plenty of demand that it’s really difficult for me to see B6 pull the plug.

PHX is B6’s highest yielding non-Mint transcons market, so I also can’t imagine it being chopped. I agree that the red eye schedule makes B6 largely irrelevant for many, although I suspect this market is not high up on the importance list for Bostonian corporate travelers.

MSP just started and is an important business market for BOS. Like PIT, DTW, and CLE, I imagine B6 could turn a profit there.

jfklganyc · Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:51 am

They cant cut DEN PDX or PHX. That would be akin to CO cutting SLC in the 90s.

B6 is major airline and they need to serve those places.

I could see ABQ and RNO and other secondary, one flight a day red eye cities getting cut.

When (and if) this happens though, B6 will officially be lost in the woods and in serious trouble going forward.

Abeam79 · Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:32 pm

Chalk this up as Anet rumor gone off the rails. B6 has never in its history or bad economic times cut “5-6 blue cities “ or in high prices, maybe cutting a year round to seasonal ie abq,rno and 1 blue city maybe Anc, but I doubt it. Phx,abq etc are significant feed into their Jfk hub, might not be high yields but you need to give the network strategy to feed into its east coast strength

tphuang · Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:34 pm

They are not cutting major places like DEN/PHX/PDX. That would be insanity. There number on DEN/PHX aren't bad at all. I wouldn't be surprised if they put mint on JFK-PHX.

I have no idea where this rumour comes from. but if they were to cut, I would say
ANC - this is a no brainer
RNO - again, no real relevance, JFK slot could be better utilized
ABQ - same as RNO
PSP - not really doing that great, and sub daily
DAB - not doing badly, but the JFK slot could be used for something else.
SJC - struggling a lot here. They actually do better at OAK. Although I don't expect them to cut this.
LGB - I expect this to go eventually when the economy goes in the dumpsters and they abandon the intra west coast flying.

But here is the thing though, cutting weak cities is fine if they are going to add destinations that are helpful to their network like London, Dublin, IND, STL and profitable Caribbean ones like GEO, PTY.

The bigger question is whether they will maintain a growth level higher than WN and US3 or will they decide to basically stop growing like AS. If they don't back off from their planned growth rate and they have yet to announce any plane deferrals, then cutting marginal places would give them the ability to grow in more relevant places.

fastmover · Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:36 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
They cant cut DEN PDX or PHX. That would be akin to CO cutting SLC in the 90s.

B6 is major airline and they need to serve those places.

I could see ABQ and RNO and other secondary, one flight a day red eye cities getting cut.

When (and if) this happens though, B6 will officially be lost in the woods and in serious trouble going forward.

Exactly. This is an airliners.net rumor. People talking about pit going away, lol, it’s one of the most profitable routes Bos-Pit. Iad has massive connections on it. Cle was just added not long ago Btv is always full.

If this was to happen and I doubt it, it would have to be part of a major shift in what jetblue is doing and going to do. You don’t just close 6 to 8% of your stations without a plan and if there is none we might as well be sold to SWA.

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