Says it all in the title, to those that don’t know flightcrew are limited in their weekly, monthly, yearly flying totals.
Despite these limits, flight crew on the A380 are increasingly running into their yearly flying limits leading to short term equipment changes and longer term operational issues.
Opinions aside, the pilot shortage is genuinely beginning to bite at EK, it’s noticeable in day to day as the literal amount of juggling that’s been going on is causing things to get missed and dropped.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Says it all in the title, to those that don’t know flightcrew are limited in their weekly, monthly, yearly flying totals.
Despite these limits, flight crew on the A380 are increasingly running into their yearly flying limits leading to short term equipment changes and longer term operational issues.
Opinions aside, the pilot shortage is genuinely beginning to bite at EK, it’s noticeable in day to day as the literal amount of juggling that’s been going on is causing things to get missed and dropped.

I doubt EK has a true pilot shortage. They just have a shortage of people willing to work for the pay, work rules and QOL they offer.

The world economy is booming, no one wants to work in the sand-pit except if he gets a HUGE pay increase there. Of course pay is good there and most income is tax-free, but now that the US and European countries are booming, pay has gone up there, too. So experienced pilots are like "why go to the sand-pit"?

EK should have invested in own pilot-training programs way earlier, from ground-up, like the major European airlines are doing it. Get people out of high-school and train them to be pilots, bring in your own recruits and not only expats. The way they do it or have done it is apparently not enough...

We get it. You don't like your airline. Do we need a new thread every week?

Maybe you should join the exodus, go to China and see how much better they treat their pilots.

MSJYOP28Apilot wrote:

I doubt EK has a true pilot shortage. They just have a shortage of people willing to work for the pay, work rules and QOL they offer.

How is that not a "true pilot shortage" ?

Is there a source? Shouldn't pilots run out of flying time? Having lots of hours left seems like a waste of resources?

There are issues , STC has openly admitted these in recent times. I do wonder about the OP´s medium of choice to vent these issues. Are there not other platforms that would be much more suitable for a ´professional pilot´ to voice such concerns and discuss them with equally affected peers ? We have a great and knowledgeable audience here , but I do wonder if this is an issue for this platform from somebody who I presume is a pilot, looking at his user ID and what quality of reply he/she is expecting?
Whilst on the subject, I am sure even EK is reviewing T&C´s to deal with the issues at hand.

CARST wrote:

EK should have invested in own pilot-training programs way earlier, from ground-up, like the major European airlines are doing it. Get people out of high-school and train them to be pilots, bring in your own recruits and not only expats. The way they do it or have done it is apparently not enough...

They have done that. Problem is it's not anywhere enough. It's kind of hard to turn cadets into multi-thousand Captains in a year.

TheFlyingRaven wrote:

We get it. You don't like your airline. Do we need a new thread every week?

Maybe you should join the exodus, go to China and see how much better they treat their pilots.

One of the interesting things I find with the human condition is that there is always those that view any critical comments with either derision or outright hostility, its as if being critical is a hanging offense or worse it might ruffle a few feathers.
For the record, those who view my posts as being no more than noise, you are entitled to your opinion as am I, I voice my concerns and observations from either first hand experience, observation and information passed to me from a variety of colleagues from inside the organisation that I derive my name from.
If any of you have a problem with me posting the facts as I experience, observe or am informed of, then I’d suggest you are either being deliberately ignorant or worse, purporting to have knowledge of things when you have no knowledge at all.
Regarding my attitude towards my employer, it is symbiotic for now, that may change, but me drawing remuneration does not translate to loyalty nor anything other than a perfunctory level of respect.
When I see or experience operational changes or challenges I will continue to communicate them here in a timely and accurate as possible fashion that is relevant to this forum.
Beyond that, being critical of my employer for certain things is often the only way certain issues can be dealt with in a connected world, long may it continue.
So Flying Raven, thank you for your advice, but as it stands China will never be an option I pursue.

mmo wrote:

CARST wrote:

EK should have invested in own pilot-training programs way earlier, from ground-up, like the major European airlines are doing it. Get people out of high-school and train them to be pilots, bring in your own recruits and not only expats. The way they do it or have done it is apparently not enough...

They have done that. Problem is it's not anywhere enough. It's kind of hard to turn cadets into multi-thousand Captains in a year.

I know, I read about their training program. But that’s why I said „way earlier“, they relied too long on expats and believed there always will be enough applicants to fill all their open positions.


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emiratesdriver wrote:

TheFlyingRaven wrote:

We get it. You don't like your airline. Do we need a new thread every week?

Maybe you should join the exodus, go to China and see how much better they treat their pilots.

One of the interesting things I find with the human condition is that there is always those that view any critical comments with either derision or outright hostility, its as if being critical is a hanging offense or worse it might ruffle a few feathers.
For the record, those who view my posts as being no more than noise, you are entitled to your opinion as am I, I voice my concerns and observations from either first hand experience, observation and information passed to me from a variety of colleagues from inside the organisation that I derive my name from.
If any of you have a problem with me posting the facts as I experience, observe or am informed of, then I’d suggest you are either being deliberately ignorant or worse, purporting to have knowledge of things when you have no knowledge at all.
Regarding my attitude towards my employer, it is symbiotic for now, that may change, but me drawing remuneration does not translate to loyalty nor anything other than a perfunctory level of respect.
When I see or experience operational changes or challenges I will continue to communicate them here in a timely and accurate as possible fashion that is relevant to this forum.
Beyond that, being critical of my employer for certain things is often the only way certain issues can be dealt with in a connected world, long may it continue.
So Flying Raven, thank you for your advice, but as it stands China will never be an option I pursue.

Have you not heard of the HR department?

emiratesdriver wrote:

One of the interesting things I find with the human condition is that there is always those that view any critical comments with either derision or outright hostility, its as if being critical is a hanging offense or worse it might ruffle a few feathers.
For the record, those who view my posts as being no more than noise, you are entitled to your opinion as am I, I voice my concerns and observations from either first hand experience, observation and information passed to me from a variety of colleagues from inside the organisation that I derive my name from.
If any of you have a problem with me posting the facts as I experience, observe or am informed of, then I’d suggest you are either being deliberately ignorant or worse, purporting to have knowledge of things when you have no knowledge at all.
Regarding my attitude towards my employer, it is symbiotic for now, that may change, but me drawing remuneration does not translate to loyalty nor anything other than a perfunctory level of respect.
When I see or experience operational changes or challenges I will continue to communicate them here in a timely and accurate as possible fashion that is relevant to this forum.
Beyond that, being critical of my employer for certain things is often the only way certain issues can be dealt with in a connected world, long may it continue.
So Flying Raven, thank you for your advice, but as it stands China will never be an option I pursue.

Some still appreciate internal insights, thanks for sharing.

mmo wrote:

CARST wrote:

EK should have invested in own pilot-training programs way earlier, from ground-up, like the major European airlines are doing it. Get people out of high-school and train them to be pilots, bring in your own recruits and not only expats. The way they do it or have done it is apparently not enough...

They have done that. Problem is it's not anywhere enough. It's kind of hard to turn cadets into multi-thousand Captains in a year.

I wonder if the choice of 737 for FlyDubai was right. It would have been much easier to pick up a pilot with a couple of thousands of hours on the 320 and turn them into a 380 FO and train a cadet to replace them.

TheFlyingRaven wrote:

We get it. You don't like your airline. Do we need a new thread every week?

Maybe you should join the exodus, go to China and see how much better they treat their pilots.

The difference is, with a lot of the Chinese contracts, you'd at least have a lot more money to show for it.

Not to mention bigger blocks of time off and some positive space rides back to home country written into the contract as well.

emiratesdriver wrote:

TheFlyingRaven wrote:

We get it. You don't like your airline. Do we need a new thread every week?

Maybe you should join the exodus, go to China and see how much better they treat their pilots.

One of the interesting things I find with the human condition is that there is always those that view any critical comments with either derision or outright hostility, its as if being critical is a hanging offense or worse it might ruffle a few feathers.
For the record, those who view my posts as being no more than noise, you are entitled to your opinion as am I, I voice my concerns and observations from either first hand experience, observation and information passed to me from a variety of colleagues from inside the organisation that I derive my name from.
If any of you have a problem with me posting the facts as I experience, observe or am informed of, then I’d suggest you are either being deliberately ignorant or worse, purporting to have knowledge of things when you have no knowledge at all.
Regarding my attitude towards my employer, it is symbiotic for now, that may change, but me drawing remuneration does not translate to loyalty nor anything other than a perfunctory level of respect.
When I see or experience operational changes or challenges I will continue to communicate them here in a timely and accurate as possible fashion that is relevant to this forum.
Beyond that, being critical of my employer for certain things is often the only way certain issues can be dealt with in a connected world, long may it continue.
So Flying Raven, thank you for your advice, but as it stands China will never be an option I pursue.

Thanks for sharing the insiders view on this and other issues you come across.
Look, no airline nor any employer for that matter is perfect, are EK any worse than countless others ? Doubt it very much.
Please continue to raise topics you feel will be of a wider interest in this forum.

emiratesdriver wrote:

If any of you have a problem with me posting the facts as I experience, observe or am informed of, then I’d suggest you are either being deliberately ignorant or worse, purporting to have knowledge of things when you have no knowledge at all.

Where are your facts?

emiratesdriver wrote:

Says it all in the title, to those that don’t know flightcrew are limited in their weekly, monthly, yearly flying totals.
Despite these limits, flight crew on the A380 are increasingly running into their yearly flying limits leading to short term equipment changes and longer term operational issues.
Opinions aside, the pilot shortage is genuinely beginning to bite at EK, it’s noticeable in day to day as the literal amount of juggling that’s been going on is causing things to get missed and dropped.

How many flightcrew are hitting their flying limits? How many equipment changes in the last week/month? What's getting missed and dropped? One of the last threads on Emirates had it established that it was utilising A380s almost fully and having its B777s sat around sunbathing. Are you suggesting that there already is or will be heaps of A380s not being utilised?

CARST wrote:

The world economy is booming, no one wants to work in the sand-pit except if he gets a HUGE pay increase there. Of course pay is good there and most income is tax-free, but now that the US and European countries are booming, pay has gone up there, too. So experienced pilots are like "why go to the sand-pit"?

EK should have invested in own pilot-training programs way earlier, from ground-up, like the major European airlines are doing it. Get people out of high-school and train them to be pilots, bring in your own recruits and not only expats. The way they do it or have done it is apparently not enough...

So far they were just poaching pilots from others by offering "better" pay, benefits, perks and lifestyle. Now that people realize benefits are not really benefits, freebies are not free, tax-free is not really free and lifestyle is meaningless if both physical and mental health are suffering, expats are going back or looking for less taxing opportunities.

EK's just two widebody policy is not suitable for developing a cadet program. Works well for airlines with TPs, RJs, NBs, and WBs.

Agree with other poster - general musings without specific facts leave the reader confused i.e. exact number of flights cancelled, number of pilots stood down, specific end user (passenger) impact - would help.

This is not going to be an isolated case going forward, there is a huge global pilot shortage. Where I fly in Canada, it's so bad that we are seeing flight schools close because the average life span of an instructor is next to zero, the airlines are just so hungry. Airlines are slashing their hiring requirements to unprecedented levels, you can get on to a regional airline no problem with 500 hours right now, and if you go to a flight college/university, 250. The Canadian Aviation employment board released their annual report last week, finding that Canada alone will need over 1000 new pilots per year for the next 8 years. We don't even produce half that...you can see where there is going to be a big problem and fast. Of course this isn't occuring in a silo either, it's going to affect most of the world, just at a different rate. We are right at the tipping point of having to completely revamp the system.

dtw2hyd wrote:

EK's just two widebody policy is not suitable for developing a cadet program. Works well for airlines with TPs, RJs, NBs, and WBs.

Not true at all. I can think of at least two other airlines (SQ and CX) who have cadet programs with only W/B fleets. It depends if you want to do it on the cheap or have an effective cadet program.

Given the relaxed "rules" that Emirates operates their pilots under, i would imagine it is hard for them to time out. For example, time in the bunk doesn't count as flight time does it? Therfore, for then to time out is really quite significant.

workhorse wrote:

mmo wrote:

CARST wrote:

EK should have invested in own pilot-training programs way earlier, from ground-up, like the major European airlines are doing it. Get people out of high-school and train them to be pilots, bring in your own recruits and not only expats. The way they do it or have done it is apparently not enough...

They have done that. Problem is it's not anywhere enough. It's kind of hard to turn cadets into multi-thousand Captains in a year.

I wonder if the choice of 737 for FlyDubai was right. It would have been much easier to pick up a pilot with a couple of thousands of hours on the 320 and turn them into a 380 FO and train a cadet to replace them.

I don’t think that this is a problem for EK. They also have enough Boeing’s (777s) and the transition time from the 737 to the 777 is like 8 days iirc.

Boeing says transition time from Airbus products to Boeing is about 21 days. So I guess the same is true the other way around (but I don’t know exactly).

The problem here is just not finding enough pilots, no matter from which type they are coming.


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CARST wrote:

I don’t think that this is a problem for EK. They also have enough Boeing’s (777s) and the transition time from the 737 to the 777 is like 8 days iirc.

Boeing says transition time from Airbus products to Boeing is about 21 days. So I guess the same is true the other way around (but I don’t know exactly).

The problem here is just not finding enough pilots, no matter from which type they are coming.


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You are missing the point. You can't take a cadet with 50 hours and get him enough experience to become a captain in a year! EK is hurting for Captains. And right now it's a pilot's job market. If you are a widebody Captain, you can pretty much name your contract. I still do some "consulting" in the Sim. My salary has doubled in the past 2 years. I only want to work 2-3 months/year and I could easily work full time with no days off if I wanted to .

The problem isn't just EK, ,it's a worldwide problem. In the US, Great Lakes just shutdown because they couldn't recruit pilots. There are plenty of low time jobs available but it's getting experienced pilots which is the problem.

Emirates has a known pilot shortage if 100 to 150 pilots. See link:
https://www.google.com/amp/m.gulfnews.c ... -1.2204332

They are parking 777s and transferring pilots to the A380s to move as many people as possible.

There is a global pilot shortage. EK snoozed on matching offers.

It is a global pilot market. Pilots willing to live in Dubai would love Shanghai...

Not to mention the EU and US shortage must be pulling back pilots.

There are other airlines impacted. Cest la vie. EK had to focus for a bit on cost control.

The issue is the exreame expense of acquiring an ATP has slowed the talent pool.

Lightsaber

mmo wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

EK's just two widebody policy is not suitable for developing a cadet program. Works well for airlines with TPs, RJs, NBs, and WBs.

Not true at all. I can think of at least two other airlines (SQ and CX) who have cadet programs with only W/B fleets. It depends if you want to do it on the cheap or have an effective cadet program.

Cadet program makes sense for an airline with B1900Ds/SAAB 340s, CRJ/E-Jets/C-Series, 737/A320s and 787/777/A330s in their fleet. Cadets will gain experience slowly, there will be career progression and job satisfaction.

Sure you can build up hours on SR22 and Phenom 100. Is it up to an expat captain to train an SR22/ Phenom 100 cadet on 777/A380. Even with enough hours in the logbook, it puts tremendous stress on training staff and experienced expat pilots and they quit. The problem becomes even more serious.

India solved the problem by trapping pilots with a one year notice:

http://indianexpress.com/article/busine ... 0214/lite/

In 2007 the US tried to address the issue by allowing retirement at age 65.

Cadet programs make sense for any airline that can provide 1,500 training hours. If in a Phenom, so be it.

Wages at US regionals have doubled. Horizon had to cut many flights due to a pilot shortage. Republic went bankrupt.

Due to 2 decades of low pilot wages, we now have a shortage. I work with many professionals who have an ATP who chose another career for QOL and pay.

Since the fundamentals are broken (a way for pilots to earn money to that ATP), I see no easy solution.

Per my above link, the Chinese airlines are the ones setting the market terms. Either match or lose expatriate pilots.

The big hurt will be in India after the 1 year notice is up. Although many expatriate pilots have the easy out of not extending their contract.

As Ryanair showed last year, the global pilot market is tight.

Lightsaber

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

FlyHappy wrote:

MSJYOP28Apilot wrote:

I doubt EK has a true pilot shortage. They just have a shortage of people willing to work for the pay, work rules and QOL they offer.

How is that not a "true pilot shortage" ?

A true pilot shortage is when there is a shortage of pilots who are qualified on the market. EK has plenty of qualified pilots to choose from but they are cheapskates that dont treat their pilots very well. An airline like EK that hires pilots from all over the world would not ever have a problem with staffing if they made the place a decent place to work with good compensation. Take a look at Endeavor Air. They used to be chronically understaffed and at times would cancel flights due to lack of pilots. Now they have a good pilot contract and they now have no shortage of people wanting to work for them.

Most of the pilot shortage stuff comes from airline management that wants an excuse to pay and treat their pilots badly and to try to convince regulatory bodies to give them breaks on legal hiring standards.

I have a lot of friends and ex-colleges from Western Europe at EK, many of them are ex-Monarch.

When Monarch got themselves into financial difficulties in 2014 a large number left to join EK to join the trickle that had already joined EK. When Monarch finally stopped trading in 2017 almost no one else joined EK (those ex-Monarch pilots who went to the Middle East in the last year mostly went to QR), reason why, put simply quality of life. In the pilot community, the word is truly out on the street as regards EK and the quality of life or rather lack of it - ie the guys are just working too hard, there are much better balanced offers out there. In EK it is, and has been for several years, very challenging to get the leave wanted, indeed most pilots are having their contractual vacation allowance denied at any time of year (instead they end up banking it), this is another sign that EK is desperately short of pilots.

I’m aware of many captains that have left EK in the last couple of years, almost all of them state quality of life as the reason to have left. All who have left have gone to much lower paying captain jobs that have a better work/life balances, ie. just increasing financial rewards in EK is not going to solve the problem, rather a better work/ life balance is required. On asking these ex-EK captains wether they would return to their higher paying EK job if given the opportunity they almost all say no because their quality of life is much better now. Just increasing EK salaries is no longer the whole solution.

I’m aware of captains from EK who have handed in their resignations, the company has offered them sabbaticals to take a break in the vein hope that they will not loose them permanently.

Additionally as regards captains, EK have compounded their crewing problems since their 777 crash by barring any captains (including DECs) from taking 380 commands without significant previous 380 time. Indeed many captains were demoted on withdrawal of the 330 and 340 fleets to work as 380 FOs rather than been given 380 commands - several 330/340 captains left on fleet withdrawal rather than be demoted on the 380.

Driverless trains/metros are increasingly popular, in use for ages in SIN, HKG, T5 LHR to name but 3. I can imagine the logic built into the control system, where any problem of a certain level or above leads to an immediate HALT. All up-stream signalling automatically set to "red" or whatever, to stop the following trains.

Compared to a train system, with a flow of trains entering one by one into each sector, it is not too difficult to control in the case of problems. Any train still in Setor X will prevent the next train from entering Sector X

Go now onto the road, where there is absolutely no notion of flow control like on the train system. Here, no-driver solutions are very much in their infancy, and are not making rapid progress in the right direction

On to the civil aviation world. Unlike the train with its "STOP" decision, there is not yet a possibility to "STOP" an aircraft in flight. Unlike the train systems, there is no "dead man's hand" on an aircraft. The idea of having one fully qualified PIC (you'd want a senior captain with 10,000+ hours) plus a Flight Attendant who was semi-qualified to clean the lavs, and semi-qualified as a second office is fanciful, at best. Who would you want to land a damaged aircraft with one-engine-out as happened last week, or both-out that Sully faced leaving New York?

I'm sure that day after day there are many flights that are run by computer, almost from brakes off to touch down, without any pilot intervention. Driverless aircraft - not yet, there is nothing there to cope with the unforeseen!

Further to what was alluded to above, the UAE authorities are basically very sympathetic to EK’s requests, it does not seem to be straight coincidence that the UAE authorities are, as I understand it, deliberately not releasing for many months the required paperwork for pilots to leave EK for other airlines. With this in mind, many EK pilots I know have kept their respective national licences current so they are not kept virtual prisoners to EK.

This is what happens when airline management spends 10-20 years destroying the profession with RJs and taking advantage of all the people who wanted to be pilots.

Word gets out that it isn't worth it taking on $100k+ of debt to fight for a job where you make $20k a year and are treated like you're disposable. People who have the talent and skill to become pilots do something else where they will be compensated more appropriately and treated better.

And now management is having to deal with the situation they created. Is anyone surprised though? Did anyone really think that the days of thousands of pilots lining up to fly for $20k/yr while living in a house with 14 other pilots was going to last forever? That people would forever be ok with management tossing their contracts in Chapter 11 whenever the airlines thought they could get away paying their pilots less than the agreed to amount?

Flying is great and the love of flying for pilots is strong, but there are limits. There is not a pilot shortage, there is just now a shortage of people willing to go anywhere to fly anything for any working condition and pay. Pilots and potential pilots have realized there have better options and many are choosing them. And now, if you want to be a fully staffed airline, you have to be one of those "better options." I don't see Delta having any trouble filling their new hire classes...

This isn't just about money, it's about working conditions. Pilots talk and word gets out very fast.

Things like:
Swapping pilots from daytime to red-eye flying day to day that would be illegal in other countries

Using 2 man crews on flights that US/EU airlines use 3 pilots, or 3 man crews on ULH when US/EU use 4 pilots

Very short layovers after a ULH flight

Cancellation of vacation

About 50% fewer days off per month compared to US/EU airlines

Very little control over your destinations or monthly schedule

I'm sure there's plenty more

I can only speak of my personal pax experience, Everytime we flew with EY on ULH a mix of A340/A380/B777 over the last 7 years the crew haVE always consisted of 4, two Captains and two First Officers.

Newflyer2018 wrote:

I can only speak of my personal pax experience, Everytime we flew with EY on ULH a mix of A340/A380/B777 over the last 7 years the crew haVE always consisted of 4, two Captains and two First Officers.

But, you do realize they were not getting paid for the entire flight. EK does not pay for time in the bunk as they have petitioned the UAE CAA to allow them not to count the time in the bunk as duty time. I find that just absolutely mind boggling.

Hopefully, readers know the pilots will not hit the max hours this time of year. What EK is doing is deferring vacation, first voluntary, then involuntary and then pro-rating the hours so they have enough to last the rest of the year.

parapente wrote:

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

Airplanes are designed for 2 pilots, and the workload in the terminal environment is ridiculously high.

Please refrain from posting illogical nonsense like this.

Sean-SAN- wrote:

This isn't just about money, it's about working conditions. Pilots talk and word gets out very fast.

Things like:
Swapping pilots from daytime to red-eye flying day to day that would be illegal in other countries

Using 2 man crews on flights that US/EU airlines use 3 pilots, or 3 man crews on ULH when US/EU use 4 pilots

Very short layovers after a ULH flight

Cancellation of vacation

About 50% fewer days off per month compared to US/EU airlines

Very little control over your destinations or monthly schedule

I'm sure there's plenty more

It is considered a crime on A.net to bring the ME3's slave ship conditions to public light.

They fly the newest, biggest, shiniest jets which means they are the best there ever was! Stupid Americans flying old airplanes! What could they possibly know!!!

Varsity1 wrote:

parapente wrote:

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

Airplanes are designed for 2 pilots, and the workload in the terminal environment is ridiculously high.

Please refrain from posting illogical nonsense like this.

There are options for pilotless or one pilot.

But the systems aren't quite ready for commercial service.

I've worked UAVs. The software is far along. Now new subroutines are needed, which means more processing power. Thankfully, Nvidia is building the chips (low heat CPU development held back the industry for 15 years).

Intelligence of software is measured in hundreds of thousands of lines of code. Calling this illogical nonsense degrades decades of autonomous software development.

But it isn't ready.. yet. But in the UAV world we're getting rid of optional pilots as they don't add the value envisioned.

Please note I'm not talking drone software. I'm talking UCAS level and beyond.

Lightsaber

parapente wrote:

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

Cars, busses, coaches, trains, subways, etc... also don't move in 3 dimensions while crossing many timezones at 85% the speed of sound. There's also been cases of pilots keeling over in the cockpit inflight and pilot suicides. If i was on a plane and the captain decided not to live anymore id rather have an FO there who's ready to beat the shit out of him if that were to happen.

mikejepp wrote:

This is what happens when airline management spends 10-20 years destroying the profession with RJs and taking advantage of all the people who wanted to be pilots.

Word gets out that it isn't worth it taking on $100k+ of debt to fight for a job where you make $20k a year and are treated like you're disposable. People who have the talent and skill to become pilots do something else where they will be compensated more appropriately and treated better.

And now management is having to deal with the situation they created. Is anyone surprised though? Did anyone really think that the days of thousands of pilots lining up to fly for $20k/yr while living in a house with 14 other pilots was going to last forever? That people would forever be ok with management tossing their contracts in Chapter 11 whenever the airlines thought they could get away paying their pilots less than the agreed to amount?

Flying is great and the love of flying for pilots is strong, but there are limits. There is not a pilot shortage, there is just now a shortage of people willing to go anywhere to fly anything for any working condition and pay. Pilots and potential pilots have realized there have better options and many are choosing them. And now, if you want to be a fully staffed airline, you have to be one of those "better options." I don't see Delta having any trouble filling their new hire classes...

Having worked in airline management a while back I can tell you that the airlines had no choice but to cut pilot pay from unsustainable levels via the bankruptcy process. You are imagining they had powers they don't have.

When you bargain for above-market pay, you do it with the understanding that you will attract more pilots into your profession & new airlines will form and their pilots will take your lunch money away from you.

This shortage is actually more effect from the 1500-hour rule. You can celebrate that fact. You have to motivate people to push through the 1500 hours now. Our RJs were the training center for the whole world. US RJ pilots would make fine EK pilots, if we still had low hour pilots coming in. Things changed and the global industry hasn't found a new equilibrium yet.

emiratesdriver wrote:

Says it all in the title

Are you the same guy that first wanted us to believe that EK has (way) too many A380s, overordering, don't know where to fly them, only to park lots of frames?

And know you are telling us that EK ha ssuch huge demand for A380 flights that EK can't find sufficient staffing?



BTW. Is this an A380 problem only, how's 77W staffing levels these days . . . ?

Sean-SAN- wrote:

This isn't just about money, it's about working conditions. Pilots talk and word gets out very fast.

Things like:
Swapping pilots from daytime to red-eye flying day to day that would be illegal in other countries

Using 2 man crews on flights that US/EU airlines use 3 pilots, or 3 man crews on ULH when US/EU use 4 pilots

Very short layovers after a ULH flight

Cancellation of vacation

About 50% fewer days off per month compared to US/EU airlines

Very little control over your destinations or monthly schedule

I'm sure there's plenty more

You are on such a thin ice, while a.net trying to prove this is somehow going to hurt India.

ORD used to be 3 crew, TRV/MAA used to be turnarounds. Just before 521 crash TRV/MAA were changed to layover. That was a lucky break.

Not paying and not counting all hours for augmentation crew was spun as a better practice compared to others.

Hard to believe they are going back to 3 on ULH.

So does anyone know or can confirm that EK are transferring pilots from their 777's to the A380's to get more bang for the buck?
I ask because on this site the refrain will be....see they have pilots for the A380 and not the 777 so they should have bought more....

lightsaber wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

parapente wrote:

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

Airplanes are designed for 2 pilots, and the workload in the terminal environment is ridiculously high.

Please refrain from posting illogical nonsense like this.

There are options for pilotless or one pilot.

But the systems aren't quite ready for commercial service.

I've worked UAVs. The software is far along. Now new subroutines are needed, which means more processing power. Thankfully, Nvidia is building the chips (low heat CPU development held back the industry for 15 years).

Intelligence of software is measured in hundreds of thousands of lines of code. Calling this illogical nonsense degrades decades of autonomous software development.

But it isn't ready.. yet. But in the UAV world we're getting rid of optional pilots as they don't add the value envisioned.

Please note I'm not talking drone software. I'm talking UCAS level and beyond.

Lightsaber

Yeah, ok bud. Any day now!

It only took the FAA/JAA 50 years to certify composite aircraft. I'm sure they'll get autonomous airliners done overnight!

Never mind that the largest drone operator in the world (USAF) flies each one with two flight crew. Pilot and sensor operator, while the F-16 does the same job with one.

TWA772LR wrote:

parapente wrote:

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

Cars, busses, coaches, trains, subways, etc... also don't move in 3 dimensions while crossing many timezones at 85% the speed of sound. There's also been cases of pilots keeling over in the cockpit inflight and pilot suicides. If i was on a plane and the captain decided not to live anymore id rather have an FO there who's ready to beat the shit out of him if that were to happen.

It's even more complex than this.

I fly for a living. I have never flown from point a to point b exactly as expected from the ground.

The airspace is so dynamic that almost everyone receives and amended clearance in the air. What happens with a drone loses comms? How does anyone even know? USAF drones crash in Nevada all the time from lost comms. No terrorism/warfare involved.

If airplanes were truly autonomous, a hacker with a stuxnet type bug could kill ever airborne human on earth. It's far too vulnerable.

sassiciai wrote:

Go now onto the road, where there is absolutely no notion of flow control like on the train system. Here, no-driver solutions are very much in their infancy, and are not making rapid progress in the right direction

Excuse me? They've gone from DARPA research to consumer application is roughly a decade! How is that *not* rapid progress...?

Yes there have been a tiny number of highly publicised fatalities, but 1) how does that compare to deaths caused by "proper" drivers in the same time for the same number of travelled kilometers (AFAIK an order of magnitude less)? and 2) how many were the result of not reacting to unpredictable actions by other "proper" drivers, including their own (AFAIK all of them)?

And I would argue that the highly-regulated airspace is vastly less complex and dangerous for an automated system than the roads with all it's unpredictable drivers/pedestrians/cats/dogs/etc.

FAA is funding research into one pilot aircraft:
http://www.aircargonews.net/news/airlin ... craft.html

Oh, to the poster who claimed it took 50 years for CFRP... Ummm..777. There was no CFRP 50 years prior. Look at 3D printing a far faster EIS.

But not a solution for the next few years. I see fewer errors in ATC with advanced UAS. There is a program to allow them to fly sans chase planes.

Notice I do not use drone. Drones are toys and targets. I get to use dozens of drones as targets this summer.

Lightsaber - I enjoy reading your posts but you mentioned earlier that EK 777 pilots are being transferred to 380 - source?

Re pilotless airplanes, the first airline in the US to try will be shut down by the unions. There is a nuclear battle plan in motion to defend against this, believe me ALPA & the Teamsters already have contingencies that have asymmetric permutations that gen pop hasn’t even considered.

I’m not predicting a winner in the long run - because we all know a non union start up could conceptually go there but... that will be a brave Investor team.

parapente wrote:

I know it's not a popular notion here (to put it mildly) but.
Cars,busses,coaches,trains,subway etc etc all have one driver and no one thinks this is odd or unsafe.Indeed the (London) dock lands light railway has been driverless for decades and I bet there are others.Soon cars will be too.Seriously do we really need 2 fully qualified pilots on every plane? Personally I don't believe so.A semi qualified 'back up' yes but fully qualified? Obviously longer flights need additional pilots but that's a different matter.
It's a serious discussion that needs to be had imho.If not now -when -never??

Did you see the news about WN’s flight 1380?? Sure the Captain is the one getting all the kudos right now but you can be sure the first officer was there doing his job as well, please read some of it on AvHerald and then comeback and give us your thoughts on that particular flight having only one pilot.

Capitalism. If a resource is in short supply, you have to pay more, and ultimately (at least after some years) supply will better mach demand...

Get over it.