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TWA772LR
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Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:57 am

What's the latest on it?
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Midwestindy
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:05 am

TWA772LR wrote:
What's the latest on it?


Spoke with the CEO a while back, and he said they still had an option on whether or not they would receive the aircraft
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as739x
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:14 am

With it not falling under Scope Clause, what is Republic's end game with the C series?
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acos24
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:31 am

as739x wrote:
With it not falling under Scope Clause, what is Republic's end game with the C series?



There aren't any next-gen regional jets that fall within current scope clauses, even the E-175 E2 is overweight. Embraer will keep having to make E1s into the near future.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:50 am

Midwestindy wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
What's the latest on it?


Spoke with the CEO a while back, and he said they still had an option on whether or not they would receive the aircraft

So would they start their own branded ops?
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Runway28L
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:32 am

Could YX take them up and lease them to another airline like DL? Like how Icelandair took a few 788s and leased them immediately to Norwegian?
 
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intotheair
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:36 am

TWA772LR wrote:
So would they start their own branded ops?


It didn't work out too well the last time around, which is how they got these orders in the first place.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
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ericm2031
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:39 am

I can maybe see the E-175 E2 becoming within revised scope clauses, but I find it hard to believe the pilots would allow something the size of the C-Series going to the regionals.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:03 am

Since being removed in 2016, I assume the Republic order still remains absent from BBD's production schedule.

From May 2016: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... la-425557/
 
flyguy84
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:10 am

ericm2031 wrote:
I can maybe see the E-175 E2 becoming within revised scope clauses, but I find it hard to believe the pilots would allow something the size of the C-Series going to the regionals.



The chances of mainline pilots at UA or AA relaxing scope to allow even the 175-E2 is slim to none.
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Varsity1
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:01 am

Runway28L wrote:
Could YX take them up and lease them to another airline like DL? Like how Icelandair took a few 788s and leased them immediately to Norwegian?


This is very possible, yes.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:11 am

Varsity1 wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
Could YX take them up and lease them to another airline like DL? Like how Icelandair took a few 788s and leased them immediately to Norwegian?


This is very possible, yes.


That begs a question: Why do you think Republic could buy the jets - and, importantly, finance them - at costs cheaper than the major lease companies or a big buyer?
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:56 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
That begs a question: Why do you think Republic could buy the jets - and, importantly, finance them - at costs cheaper than the major lease companies or a big buyer?

You are definitely right on the financing aspect, but I'm not so sure on the unit price obtained.

While under Chapter 11, Republic was somehow keen to keep this conditional purchase right alive.
I could be to eventually salvage the deposits paid and/or that the price obtained was attractive enough to possibly make a profit passing it to another carrier.
 
Dash9
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:27 pm

I see two possible outcomes:
1) Republic cancels and most probably gets its deposit back as their airplae was late so there must be some provision for this in the paperwpork
2) Republic sells the order (or take delivery and resell units) (or setup a leasing arm), if and only if the launch pricing they got is much better than what would be available today.
 
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Polot
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:35 pm

Dash9 wrote:
I see two possible outcomes:
1) Republic cancels and most probably gets its deposit back as their airplae was late so there must be some provision for this in the paperwpork
2) Republic sells the order (or take delivery and resell units) (or setup a leasing arm), if and only if the launch pricing they got is much better than what would be available today.

I think Republic was hoping for number 2, but the low fuel price environment and BBD’s issues selling the plane has put a wrinkle in that plan resulting in Repiblic holding on to the order longer than intended. Republic’s pricing is probably not much better than what you can currently get direct from BBD (it is certainly higher than DL’s price).
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:53 pm

flyguy84 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
I can maybe see the E-175 E2 becoming within revised scope clauses, but I find it hard to believe the pilots would allow something the size of the C-Series going to the regionals.



The chances of mainline pilots at UA or AA relaxing scope to allow even the 175-E2 is slim to none.


Considering that the E175-E2 is effectively in the same seating category as the E175s and is basically just a 2.5 ft longer refresh of existing planes that regionals already operate for these carriers, the chances of mainline pilots successfully blocking them all the way through the outcome of a labor arbitration are slim to none. That's an example of a pretty straightforward and low hanging "give" to management for the pilots to get something else they want, they'll probably have more important priorities with better arguments they'll want to be firmer on.
 
EssentialBusDC
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:59 pm

WkndWanderer wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
I can maybe see the E-175 E2 becoming within revised scope clauses, but I find it hard to believe the pilots would allow something the size of the C-Series going to the regionals.



The chances of mainline pilots at UA or AA relaxing scope to allow even the 175-E2 is slim to none.


Considering that the E175-E2 is effectively in the same seating category as the E175s and is basically just a 2.5 ft longer refresh of existing planes that regionals already operate for these carriers, the chances of mainline pilots successfully blocking them all the way through the outcome of a labor arbitration are slim to none. That's an example of a pretty straightforward and low hanging "give" to management for the pilots to get something else they want, they'll probably have more important priorities with better arguments they'll want to be firmer on.

Disagree.

Scope is the number one issue for the Big 3 pilot groups. So the odds of a relaxation of scope are very low.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:01 pm

Polot wrote:
Dash9 wrote:
I see two possible outcomes:
1) Republic cancels and most probably gets its deposit back as their airplae was late so there must be some provision for this in the paperwpork
2) Republic sells the order (or take delivery and resell units) (or setup a leasing arm), if and only if the launch pricing they got is much better than what would be available today.

I think Republic was hoping for number 2, but the low fuel price environment and BBD’s issues selling the plane has put a wrinkle in that plan resulting in Repiblic holding on to the order longer than intended. Republic’s pricing is probably not much better than what you can currently get direct from BBD (it is certainly higher than DL’s price).


I agree. I was hopeful they’d be able to monetize their early order position but that shop looks to have sailed. Honestly, I was disappointed that F9 didn’t get the delivery positions in the spin-off but I guess it didn’t fit their vision.
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WorldFlier
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:06 pm

EssentialBusDC wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:


The chances of mainline pilots at UA or AA relaxing scope to allow even the 175-E2 is slim to none.


Considering that the E175-E2 is effectively in the same seating category as the E175s and is basically just a 2.5 ft longer refresh of existing planes that regionals already operate for these carriers, the chances of mainline pilots successfully blocking them all the way through the outcome of a labor arbitration are slim to none. That's an example of a pretty straightforward and low hanging "give" to management for the pilots to get something else they want, they'll probably have more important priorities with better arguments they'll want to be firmer on.

Disagree.

Scope is the number one issue for the Big 3 pilot groups. So the odds of a relaxation of scope are very low.


If a plane flies say 10 hours a day, and 300 days a year, that's 3,000 hours a year. How can there be *that* much penny-pinching by the airlines on a higher paid pilot. Even at $50/hr difference per chair that is $30,000 per year per plane. 100 planes and that is 3,000,000.

Am I missing something? This seems like Airlines cutting off their nose to spite their face...
 
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diverdave
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:19 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
If a plane flies say 10 hours a day, and 300 days a year, that's 3,000 hours a year. How can there be *that* much penny-pinching by the airlines on a higher paid pilot. Even at $50/hr difference per chair that is $30,000 per year per plane. 100 planes and that is 3,000,000.

Am I missing something? This seems like Airlines cutting off their nose to spite their face...


Actually with your assumptions 10x300x50x2 = $300,000 per year per plane not $30,000.

And I expect by the time you add in other pilot benefits and costs, the difference would be greater than $50/hour. Plus if you fly with mainline pilots, I would expect the FAs would demand mainline FAs.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:22 pm

EssentialBusDC wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
flyguy84 wrote:


The chances of mainline pilots at UA or AA relaxing scope to allow even the 175-E2 is slim to none.


Considering that the E175-E2 is effectively in the same seating category as the E175s and is basically just a 2.5 ft longer refresh of existing planes that regionals already operate for these carriers, the chances of mainline pilots successfully blocking them all the way through the outcome of a labor arbitration are slim to none. That's an example of a pretty straightforward and low hanging "give" to management for the pilots to get something else they want, they'll probably have more important priorities with better arguments they'll want to be firmer on.

Disagree.

Scope is the number one issue for the Big 3 pilot groups. So the odds of a relaxation of scope are very low.


A labor arbitrator isn't going to care, they're going to compare the reasonableness of management's ask relative to the status quo and existing agreements. UA and AA already have a combined 300+ E175's operated by regional airlines, a 2.5 ft larger larger update of the same plane that is heavier due to newer engines isn't going to be considered a ground shattering ask. If you're talking about E190+ or C-series sized aircraft in terms of scope or possibly being operated by regionals, than you're most certainly right, the unions would have a much more substantive argument and position to keep that from happening, but if you're talking about allowing the refreshed version of a plane you've already had hundreds of operated by the regionals for years, that isn't the hill you should pick to die on if you're being realistic. ALPA had a much more realistic and reasonable ask trying to get scope protection of any kind for AS and VX pilots when they took Alaska to arbitration last year and they still lost.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:34 pm

WkndWanderer wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:

Considering that the E175-E2 is effectively in the same seating category as the E175s and is basically just a 2.5 ft longer refresh of existing planes that regionals already operate for these carriers, the chances of mainline pilots successfully blocking them all the way through the outcome of a labor arbitration are slim to none. That's an example of a pretty straightforward and low hanging "give" to management for the pilots to get something else they want, they'll probably have more important priorities with better arguments they'll want to be firmer on.

Disagree.

Scope is the number one issue for the Big 3 pilot groups. So the odds of a relaxation of scope are very low.


A labor arbitrator isn't going to care, they're going to compare the reasonableness of management's ask relative to the status quo and existing agreements. UA and AA already have a combined 300+ E175's operated by regional airlines, a 2.5 ft larger larger update of the same plane that is heavier due to newer engines isn't going to be considered a ground shattering ask. If you're talking about E190+ or C-series sized aircraft in terms of scope or possibly being operated by regionals, than you're most certainly right, the unions would have a much more substantive argument and position to keep that from happening, but if you're talking about allowing the refreshed version of a plane you've already had hundreds of operated by the regionals for years, that isn't the hill you should pick to die on if you're being realistic. ALPA had a much more realistic and reasonable ask trying to get scope protection of any kind for AS and VX pilots when they took Alaska to arbitration last year and they still lost.


If an amendable mainline carrier pilot contract gets to the point that they're in arbitration, they're going to be so far behind the hiring curve, that it doesn't even matter at that point.
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N353SK
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:39 pm

WkndWanderer wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:

Considering that the E175-E2 is effectively in the same seating category as the E175s and is basically just a 2.5 ft longer refresh of existing planes that regionals already operate for these carriers, the chances of mainline pilots successfully blocking them all the way through the outcome of a labor arbitration are slim to none. That's an example of a pretty straightforward and low hanging "give" to management for the pilots to get something else they want, they'll probably have more important priorities with better arguments they'll want to be firmer on.

Disagree.

Scope is the number one issue for the Big 3 pilot groups. So the odds of a relaxation of scope are very low.


A labor arbitrator isn't going to care, they're going to compare the reasonableness of management's ask relative to the status quo and existing agreements. UA and AA already have a combined 300+ E175's operated by regional airlines, a 2.5 ft larger larger update of the same plane that is heavier due to newer engines isn't going to be considered a ground shattering ask. If you're talking about E190+ or C-series sized aircraft in terms of scope or possibly being operated by regionals, than you're most certainly right, the unions would have a much more substantive argument and position to keep that from happening, but if you're talking about allowing the refreshed version of a plane you've already had hundreds of operated by the regionals for years, that isn't the hill you should pick to die on if you're being realistic. ALPA had a much more realistic and reasonable ask trying to get scope protection of any kind for AS and VX pilots when they took Alaska to arbitration last year and they still lost.



What is this theoretical arbitrator going to say about the fact that AAL/DAL/UAL’s pilot contracts explicitly disallow outsourcing aircraft with an MTOW above 86,000 lbs (a few exceptions exist to grandfather in aircraft at regionals at time of signing)?
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:14 pm

N353SK wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:
Disagree.

Scope is the number one issue for the Big 3 pilot groups. So the odds of a relaxation of scope are very low.


A labor arbitrator isn't going to care, they're going to compare the reasonableness of management's ask relative to the status quo and existing agreements. UA and AA already have a combined 300+ E175's operated by regional airlines, a 2.5 ft larger larger update of the same plane that is heavier due to newer engines isn't going to be considered a ground shattering ask. If you're talking about E190+ or C-series sized aircraft in terms of scope or possibly being operated by regionals, than you're most certainly right, the unions would have a much more substantive argument and position to keep that from happening, but if you're talking about allowing the refreshed version of a plane you've already had hundreds of operated by the regionals for years, that isn't the hill you should pick to die on if you're being realistic. ALPA had a much more realistic and reasonable ask trying to get scope protection of any kind for AS and VX pilots when they took Alaska to arbitration last year and they still lost.



What is this theoretical arbitrator going to say about the fact that AAL/DAL/UAL’s pilot contracts explicitly disallow outsourcing aircraft with an MTOW above 86,000 lbs (a few exceptions exist to grandfather in aircraft at regionals at time of signing)?


A labor arbitrator would be making decisions on contract proposals that the parties had reached an impasse over and not TA'd during their bargaining that were taken to interest arbitration. In binding interest arbitration, the arbitrator is effectively deciding the new contract language for the parties that they were unable to agree on in bargaining. That's not usually what's preferred by either party for a variety of reasons, one of which DiamondFlyer alluded to, so there is typically an impetus to get the best deal you can even if you don't get everything exactly as you want. An arbitrator could easily accept an airline's argument that an E175 E2 sized aircraft is effectively the functional replacement for the E175's that they already have hundreds of which are operated by regionals, the newest iteration of which will happen to be heavier due to improved engine technology, and could increase the outsourcing MTOW restriction in recognition of that during interest arbitration. The unions and their attorneys know this, which is why they would probably (and smartly) would more like try to leverage regional operation of the E175-E2 as a bargaining chip in a stage of bargaining to get something else they want on their own terms instead of letting their leverage slip out of their hands and allow a third party decide it for them in interest arbitration. Arbitrators are (in)famous for "splitting the baby" when it comes to competing asks and like I mentioned, if it came to that, I can't see a smart union bargaining team picking the newest E175 as a hill to die on in the way they almost certainly would with anything E190/ C series sized or bigger.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:40 pm

deltadawg wrote:
Polot wrote:
Dash9 wrote:
I see two possible outcomes:
1) Republic cancels and most probably gets its deposit back as their airplae was late so there must be some provision for this in the paperwpork
2) Republic sells the order (or take delivery and resell units) (or setup a leasing arm), if and only if the launch pricing they got is much better than what would be available today.

I think Republic was hoping for number 2, but the low fuel price environment and BBD’s issues selling the plane has put a wrinkle in that plan resulting in Repiblic holding on to the order longer than intended. Republic’s pricing is probably not much better than what you can currently get direct from BBD (it is certainly higher than DL’s price).



IF Republic has been able to cancel the order completely and retrieve their deposit could Republic order instead of the CSeries the MRJ and stay within the scope clause? I have not looked at the MRJ in a while to know if it would fall under the clause or not but could it be a viable candidate to use in place of the E2's and CSeries? Not trying to veer the topic off course but just trying to know if this is a possible direction instead of BBD. Thanks.


Only the MRJ70 is under the weight limit.
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deltadawg
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:40 pm

Polot wrote:
Dash9 wrote:
I see two possible outcomes:
1) Republic cancels and most probably gets its deposit back as their airplae was late so there must be some provision for this in the paperwpork
2) Republic sells the order (or take delivery and resell units) (or setup a leasing arm), if and only if the launch pricing they got is much better than what would be available today.

I think Republic was hoping for number 2, but the low fuel price environment and BBD’s issues selling the plane has put a wrinkle in that plan resulting in Repiblic holding on to the order longer than intended. Republic’s pricing is probably not much better than what you can currently get direct from BBD (it is certainly higher than DL’s price).



IF Republic has been able to cancel the order completely and retrieve their deposit could Republic order instead of the CSeries the MRJ and stay within the scope clause? I have not looked at the MRJ in a while to know if it would fall under the clause or not but could it be a viable candidate to use in place of the E2's and CSeries? Not trying to veer the topic off course but just trying to know if this is a possible direction instead of BBD. Thanks.
GO Dawgs, Sic' em, woof woof woof
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:05 pm

Those of you that think scope is going to be relaxed at the Big 3 have not paid attention to the contracts of late, the negotiations or the current market for pilots. There is a reason the lid is set at 76 seats/86,000 pounds, its called SCOPE CHOKE. The pilots want those planes flown at the main line not at a regional that pays far less.

As was stated, scope is the #1 issue to most pilots. They are wise to the "monetizing" carrots that management offers and are highly unlikely to give. Why should they? The number of new pilots coming into the system is declining as the number of retirements and fleet sizes increases. They'd be fools to relax scope.

At the same time, they won't be released to strike and I don't see them agreeing to arbitrate so they'll slow play it before they relax scope. That means new a/c types not in the current contract couldn't be introduced if there is no existing pay scale.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:54 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
Those of you that think scope is going to be relaxed at the Big 3 have not paid attention to the contracts of late, the negotiations or the current market for pilots. There is a reason the lid is set at 76 seats/86,000 pounds, its called SCOPE CHOKE. The pilots want those planes flown at the main line not at a regional that pays far less.

As was stated, scope is the #1 issue to most pilots. They are wise to the "monetizing" carrots that management offers and are highly unlikely to give. Why should they? The number of new pilots coming into the system is declining as the number of retirements and fleet sizes increases. They'd be fools to relax scope.

At the same time, they won't be released to strike and I don't see them agreeing to arbitrate so they'll slow play it before they relax scope. That means new a/c types not in the current contract couldn't be introduced if there is no existing pay scale.


While that may be true, with Delta being the next amendable contract, I'm afraid of the following. Delta has numerous JV, which is limited by the PWA (Pilot Working Agreement/Contract) on how much each side has to fly. I'm of the feeling that Delta is going to come to the union and basically say, "you'll either take a smaller percentage of international wide-body flying or you'll take more/larger RJ's". So they'll have to decide, do they want the large international flying or are they willing to sacrifice say a swap of 50 seaters for 70 seaters, in order to protect the international flying.
From my cold, dead hands
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:08 am

WkndWanderer wrote:
N353SK wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:

A labor arbitrator isn't going to care, they're going to compare the reasonableness of management's ask relative to the status quo and existing agreements. UA and AA already have a combined 300+ E175's operated by regional airlines, a 2.5 ft larger larger update of the same plane that is heavier due to newer engines isn't going to be considered a ground shattering ask. If you're talking about E190+ or C-series sized aircraft in terms of scope or possibly being operated by regionals, than you're most certainly right, the unions would have a much more substantive argument and position to keep that from happening, but if you're talking about allowing the refreshed version of a plane you've already had hundreds of operated by the regionals for years, that isn't the hill you should pick to die on if you're being realistic. ALPA had a much more realistic and reasonable ask trying to get scope protection of any kind for AS and VX pilots when they took Alaska to arbitration last year and they still lost.



What is this theoretical arbitrator going to say about the fact that AAL/DAL/UAL’s pilot contracts explicitly disallow outsourcing aircraft with an MTOW above 86,000 lbs (a few exceptions exist to grandfather in aircraft at regionals at time of signing)?


A labor arbitrator would be making decisions on contract proposals that the parties had reached an impasse over and not TA'd during their bargaining that were taken to interest arbitration. In binding interest arbitration, the arbitrator is effectively deciding the new contract language for the parties that they were unable to agree on in bargaining. That's not usually what's preferred by either party for a variety of reasons, one of which DiamondFlyer alluded to, so there is typically an impetus to get the best deal you can even if you don't get everything exactly as you want. An arbitrator could easily accept an airline's argument that an E175 E2 sized aircraft is effectively the functional replacement for the E175's that they already have hundreds of which are operated by regionals, the newest iteration of which will happen to be heavier due to improved engine technology, and could increase the outsourcing MTOW restriction in recognition of that during interest arbitration. The unions and their attorneys know this, which is why they would probably (and smartly) would more like try to leverage regional operation of the E175-E2 as a bargaining chip in a stage of bargaining to get something else they want on their own terms instead of letting their leverage slip out of their hands and allow a third party decide it for them in interest arbitration. Arbitrators are (in)famous for "splitting the baby" when it comes to competing asks and like I mentioned, if it came to that, I can't see a smart union bargaining team picking the newest E175 as a hill to die on in the way they almost certainly would with anything E190/ C series sized or bigger.


You keep showing you don't get it. When did the last major have a pilot contract go to arbitration? (Alaska doesn't count. The outcome shows they're not a major.) Southwest was in mediation, not arbitration. It's gonna be tough for Delta to argue they can't manage higher pay/benefits/scope when they're bringing in $5 Billion in profit.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:19 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
That begs a question: Why do you think Republic could buy the jets - and, importantly, finance them - at costs cheaper than the major lease companies or a big buyer?

You are definitely right on the financing aspect, but I'm not so sure on the unit price obtained.

While under Chapter 11, Republic was somehow keen to keep this conditional purchase right alive.
I could be to eventually salvage the deposits paid and/or that the price obtained was attractive enough to possibly make a profit passing it to another carrier.


There's a pervasive assumption on a.net that Republic got great pricing. Did Boeing's case to the ITC against Bombardier reference Republic's pricing on C-Series?

Agree on following posts that (relatively) low fuel prices have substantially diminished value of Republic's order/delivery positions.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:00 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
N353SK wrote:


What is this theoretical arbitrator going to say about the fact that AAL/DAL/UAL’s pilot contracts explicitly disallow outsourcing aircraft with an MTOW above 86,000 lbs (a few exceptions exist to grandfather in aircraft at regionals at time of signing)?


A labor arbitrator would be making decisions on contract proposals that the parties had reached an impasse over and not TA'd during their bargaining that were taken to interest arbitration. In binding interest arbitration, the arbitrator is effectively deciding the new contract language for the parties that they were unable to agree on in bargaining. That's not usually what's preferred by either party for a variety of reasons, one of which DiamondFlyer alluded to, so there is typically an impetus to get the best deal you can even if you don't get everything exactly as you want. An arbitrator could easily accept an airline's argument that an E175 E2 sized aircraft is effectively the functional replacement for the E175's that they already have hundreds of which are operated by regionals, the newest iteration of which will happen to be heavier due to improved engine technology, and could increase the outsourcing MTOW restriction in recognition of that during interest arbitration. The unions and their attorneys know this, which is why they would probably (and smartly) would more like try to leverage regional operation of the E175-E2 as a bargaining chip in a stage of bargaining to get something else they want on their own terms instead of letting their leverage slip out of their hands and allow a third party decide it for them in interest arbitration. Arbitrators are (in)famous for "splitting the baby" when it comes to competing asks and like I mentioned, if it came to that, I can't see a smart union bargaining team picking the newest E175 as a hill to die on in the way they almost certainly would with anything E190/ C series sized or bigger.


You keep showing you don't get it. When did the last major have a pilot contract go to arbitration? (Alaska doesn't count. The outcome shows they're not a major.) Southwest was in mediation, not arbitration. It's gonna be tough for Delta to argue they can't manage higher pay/benefits/scope when they're bringing in $5 Billion in profit.


Well your selective choice to exclude Alaska aside (in spite of the fact it's represented by the world's largest pilot union and their lawyers), the bigger problem is the "E175 operated by regionals" cat is already out of the bag and has been for years. Delta will certainly offer its pilots higher pay, profit sharing, benefits, etc, but there's no major viable next generation smaller regional jet really on the horizon, the E175-E2 is going to be on the lower end...If push truly came to shove over it, airline management is hardly going roll over on reversing a decades old business model of outsourcing regional jet flying. Pushing the genie in the bottle on the one of the most prolific regional jets in the US and/ or its replacement is a lot easier said than done, particularly when political pressure would mount over the smaller markets and thinner routes the airlines would say they are dependent on the regionals for. Thanks for the healthy chuckle though on the "not getting" how collective bargaining and the most logical and pragmatic path for labor relations work though.
 
N353SK
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 5:08 am

Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:40 am

WkndWanderer wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:

A labor arbitrator would be making decisions on contract proposals that the parties had reached an impasse over and not TA'd during their bargaining that were taken to interest arbitration. In binding interest arbitration, the arbitrator is effectively deciding the new contract language for the parties that they were unable to agree on in bargaining. That's not usually what's preferred by either party for a variety of reasons, one of which DiamondFlyer alluded to, so there is typically an impetus to get the best deal you can even if you don't get everything exactly as you want. An arbitrator could easily accept an airline's argument that an E175 E2 sized aircraft is effectively the functional replacement for the E175's that they already have hundreds of which are operated by regionals, the newest iteration of which will happen to be heavier due to improved engine technology, and could increase the outsourcing MTOW restriction in recognition of that during interest arbitration. The unions and their attorneys know this, which is why they would probably (and smartly) would more like try to leverage regional operation of the E175-E2 as a bargaining chip in a stage of bargaining to get something else they want on their own terms instead of letting their leverage slip out of their hands and allow a third party decide it for them in interest arbitration. Arbitrators are (in)famous for "splitting the baby" when it comes to competing asks and like I mentioned, if it came to that, I can't see a smart union bargaining team picking the newest E175 as a hill to die on in the way they almost certainly would with anything E190/ C series sized or bigger.


You keep showing you don't get it. When did the last major have a pilot contract go to arbitration? (Alaska doesn't count. The outcome shows they're not a major.) Southwest was in mediation, not arbitration. It's gonna be tough for Delta to argue they can't manage higher pay/benefits/scope when they're bringing in $5 Billion in profit.


Well your selective choice to exclude Alaska aside (in spite of the fact it's represented by the world's largest pilot union and their lawyers), the bigger problem is the "E175 operated by regionals" cat is already out of the bag and has been for years. Delta will certainly offer its pilots higher pay, profit sharing, benefits, etc, but there's no major viable next generation smaller regional jet really on the horizon, the E175-E2 is going to be on the lower end...If push truly came to shove over it, airline management is hardly going roll over on reversing a decades old business model of outsourcing regional jet flying. Pushing the genie in the bottle on the one of the most prolific regional jets in the US and/ or its replacement is a lot easier said than done, particularly when political pressure would mount over the smaller markets and thinner routes the airlines would say they are dependent on the regionals for. Thanks for the healthy chuckle though on the "not getting" how collective bargaining and the most logical and pragmatic path for labor relations work though.


Why would the Delta pilots consider relaxing scope when they've seen that holding the line on seat capacity and MTOW caused Delta to bring in the 717s for Delta pilots to fly?
 
ilovelamp
Posts: 343
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:45 am

Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:40 am

DiamondFlyer wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
Those of you that think scope is going to be relaxed at the Big 3 have not paid attention to the contracts of late, the negotiations or the current market for pilots. There is a reason the lid is set at 76 seats/86,000 pounds, its called SCOPE CHOKE. The pilots want those planes flown at the main line not at a regional that pays far less.

As was stated, scope is the #1 issue to most pilots. They are wise to the "monetizing" carrots that management offers and are highly unlikely to give. Why should they? The number of new pilots coming into the system is declining as the number of retirements and fleet sizes increases. They'd be fools to relax scope.

At the same time, they won't be released to strike and I don't see them agreeing to arbitrate so they'll slow play it before they relax scope. That means new a/c types not in the current contract couldn't be introduced if there is no existing pay scale.


While that may be true, with Delta being the next amendable contract, I'm afraid of the following. Delta has numerous JV, which is limited by the PWA (Pilot Working Agreement/Contract) on how much each side has to fly. I'm of the feeling that Delta is going to come to the union and basically say, "you'll either take a smaller percentage of international wide-body flying or you'll take more/larger RJ's". So they'll have to decide, do they want the large international flying or are they willing to sacrifice say a swap of 50 seaters for 70 seaters, in order to protect the international flying.


You seem to be forgetting we are in a pilot-favorable negotiating environment. Delta wants labor peace and to keep other unions off property they can’t get too greedy at the bargaining table because the other labor groups know that further scope/JV gives also mean lost jobs for them.

Additionally, Delta is obsessed with operational metrics and mainline is the standard-bearer. Customers don’t want RJs if given a choice. Delta has hired thousands of RJ pilots since Jan 2014 who lived an extended period of time at the regionals due to scope gives in the 90s. The company knows additional scope gives from the pilots are a non-starter. So, that leaves the high-end jobs to protect. The status quo as written in the PWA is very protective of those precious few jobs. If you saw what the company was asking during the AM JV negotiations, it would leave you speechless. It’s insulting really. Thankfully, the language as written doesn’t have to be changed because the PWA doesn’t require an agreement to be reached.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5042
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:06 am

ericm2031 wrote:
I can maybe see the E-175 E2 becoming within revised scope clauses, but I find it hard to believe the pilots would allow something the size of the C-Series going to the regionals.

The Scope clause limits the Seats and the Gross weight of the airplane flown in Regional service for the majors. Could be We're coming to the end of the "Branded flying" Era where the regional airlines are going to have to fly under their OWN brands in partnership the major airlines under their OWN colors.
(Then they can fly whatever the market Bears) OR?? They go under. The fee for departure scenario might be hard to leave though.. And we'd possibly see 90% of the regionals go down the Drain before they get it sorted out. Especially since it's unlikely that ALPA and Allied will budge on their Stance anytime soon.
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 291
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:36 pm

Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:12 am

N353SK wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

You keep showing you don't get it. When did the last major have a pilot contract go to arbitration? (Alaska doesn't count. The outcome shows they're not a major.) Southwest was in mediation, not arbitration. It's gonna be tough for Delta to argue they can't manage higher pay/benefits/scope when they're bringing in $5 Billion in profit.


Well your selective choice to exclude Alaska aside (in spite of the fact it's represented by the world's largest pilot union and their lawyers), the bigger problem is the "E175 operated by regionals" cat is already out of the bag and has been for years. Delta will certainly offer its pilots higher pay, profit sharing, benefits, etc, but there's no major viable next generation smaller regional jet really on the horizon, the E175-E2 is going to be on the lower end...If push truly came to shove over it, airline management is hardly going roll over on reversing a decades old business model of outsourcing regional jet flying. Pushing the genie in the bottle on the one of the most prolific regional jets in the US and/ or its replacement is a lot easier said than done, particularly when political pressure would mount over the smaller markets and thinner routes the airlines would say they are dependent on the regionals for. Thanks for the healthy chuckle though on the "not getting" how collective bargaining and the most logical and pragmatic path for labor relations work though.


Why would the Delta pilots consider relaxing scope when they've seen that holding the line on seat capacity and MTOW caused Delta to bring in the 717s for Delta pilots to fly?


Because there is quite obviously still a substantial niche for operations of <80 seat regional jet aircraft of the sort that airlines have been outsourcing to regional airlines for decades. That business model and the economics behind it haven't changed simply because the engines on the newest E175 which regional airlines already operate under mainline banners happen to be 5000 lbs heavier than those on the previous non-PW GTF generation. Like I mentioned, the acceptability and commonplace occurrence of an E175 sized aircraft operated by a regional was already let out of the bottle a long time ago and isn't going to be stufffed back in so easily. Airlines aren't simply going to fold on the outsourcing of <80 seat jet flying to regional airline partners without adamantly pushing for the newest generation of E175 aircraft to be included in scope agreements, or without trying to work out the lighter weight GTF powered MRJ70 orders for their regional partner airlines until more options become available. Ultimately of course, there's no requirement that they fly anything that size at all, either in house or through a capacity purchase partner. That would obviously leave to a pretty big whole in the industry though and the attempts to fill that outside of the mainline capacity purchase model would be ugly and haven't been successful in the past.

The C series however (which was the original thread topic) is obviously quite a bit larger than an E175 E2 in terms of configuration and MTOW and is a whole different matter.
 
User avatar
diverdave
Posts: 703
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:00 am

Re: Republics CSeries Order

Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:53 pm

N353SK wrote:
Why would the Delta pilots consider relaxing scope when they've seen that holding the line on seat capacity and MTOW caused Delta to bring in the 717s for Delta pilots to fly?


I can certainly understand why the pilots would not want to give on seat capacity.

I am a bit more puzzled on MTOW, where the scope relief would allow replacement by aircraft with an equal seating capacity. I do understand that the pilots absolutely would want something in exchange for that relief, but it would maintain the current protections they have.

I guess the long term goal could be to force the company to operate less efficient regional jets and perhaps reach the point where the economics incentivize the company to having newer generation RJs flown by mainline pilots.

David

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