tphuang
Posts: 3247
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:25 pm

I posted it here
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1375815&start=100#p20363381
but a rough idea of how low the LGB yields are compared to ONT and BUR
to PHX
CityPair Distance Carrier Boarded AvgFare LF AvgAsm PRASM
ONTPHX 325 AA 131285 154.85 83.00% 128.52 0.3954
ONTPHX 325 WN 240461 151.4 78.08% 118.21 0.3637
ONTPHX 325 YV 43397 162.73 83.51% 135.9 0.4182
BURPHX 369 WN 233681 147.57 79.41% 117.18 0.3175
BURPHX 369 YV 65813 167.54 82.03% 137.43 0.3724
LGBPHX 355 OO 4672 147.55 83.43% 123.09 0.3467
LGBPHX 355 YV 57721 153.52 72.28% 110.97 0.3126
AA with far fewer flight (with no WN competition) to PHX on regional and still yielding a good 15% less than mainline to ONT(75% of ONT yield on regional). No wonder they voluntarily gave up slots.
to DEN
Next DEN
ONTDEN 819 OO 1017 240.42 89.84% 216 0.2637
ONTDEN 819 WN 93297 169.46 90.67% 153.65 0.1876
ONTDEN 819 F9 21894 55.85 87.72% 48.99 0.0598
ONTDEN 819 UA 80656 180.94 89.20% 161.4 0.1971
BURDEN 850 OO 24892 205.37 87.03% 178.73 0.2103
BURDEN 850 WN 103399 164.28 90.69% 148.99 0.1753
BURDEN 850 UA 24407 178.63 65.39% 116.8 0.1374
LGBDEN 854 WN 10506 115.16 64.45% 74.21 0.0869
Again, LGB so much worse than the rest of the markets. Half of their yield out of ONT/BUR. A little unfair since this is Sat/Sun only service, but still awful yields and LF.
to SLC on DL/OO (regional)
ONTSLC 558 OO 44449 192.35 89.67% 172.47 0.3091
ONTSLC 558 DL 38621 163.14 81.66% 133.22 0.2387
BURSLC 574 OO 70837 149.31 82.58% 123.31 0.2148
LGBSLC 588 OO 96180 118.93 89.06% 105.92 0.1801
Again, LGB yields are a whopping 60% of ONT yields on ONT for DL regional.
and here are to WN strongholds of OAK/LAS
ONTLAS 197 WN 168774 156.98 76.52% 120.12 0.6098
ONTOAK 362 WN 277831 122.71 75.01% 92.05 0.2543
BURLAS 223 WN 326029 148.7 68.14% 101.32 0.4543
BUROAK 325 WN 431263 130.5 72.66% 94.81 0.2917
LGBLAS 231 WN 29963 67.01 76.35% 51.16 0.2215
LGBOAK 353 WN 141280 89.36 74.15% 66.26 0.1877
Again, LAS yields is 2.5 to 3 times as high out of ONT. OAK yields are almost 50% higher out of ONT/BUR and this is with them running 4 a day schedule already.

What is everyone else seeing that I'm not? It seems like at best, LGB yields are consistently at 75% of ONT on carriers that operate in all 3.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:14 pm

The data for Long Beach is kind of worthelsss at this point. JetBlue was flying too many seats on some of those routes.
Southwest is to new for that to be valuable.
JetBlue should get much stronger as the extra seats are reduced on these low fare routes, and there is just alot of change to happen. Southwest said it themselves they have been asking for more Long Beach access, will here it is.

ONT is not really a LAX overflow airport for short hops it's too far, Long Beach can be for both LAX and SNA.

Delta is the question to me, B6 is still flying 3x A320 to SLC do you flood that market, do nothing, or add a SEA spoke to compliment? Delta has historically wanted Long Beach slots to rain on JetBlue's SLC parade but they have a decent offering now. Delta is the interesting one to me, Southwest I expect to apply for slots.
 
tphuang
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:40 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The data for Long Beach is kind of worthelsss at this point. JetBlue was flying too many seats on some of those routes.
Southwest is to new for that to be valuable.
JetBlue should get much stronger as the extra seats are reduced on these low fare routes, and there is just alot of change to happen. Southwest said it themselves they have been asking for more Long Beach access, will here it is.

ONT is not really a LAX overflow airport for short hops it's too far, Long Beach can be for both LAX and SNA.

Delta is the question to me, B6 is still flying 3x A320 to SLC do you flood that market, do nothing, or add a SEA spoke to compliment? Delta has historically wanted Long Beach slots to rain on JetBlue's SLC parade but they have a decent offering now. Delta is the interesting one to me, Southwest I expect to apply for slots.

You are delusional. There are markets where b6 is not in and are absolutely low yielding. Aa refuse to even fly to Dallas out of there and have by far the lowest yield to Phoenix out of lgb.
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:32 pm

Well officially as of now only DL and WN have expressed interest In the available slots.
Hawaiian is passing on the opportunity.

With no outside airlines wanting into LGB.
It should make it quick and easy for the airport officials to fill those slots up between DL & WN.

My predictions.
Going off DL low bid for slots the last 2 times. I'm expecting them to end up with 2.
Question is will they make a Go at LGB-SEA or keep with the same game plan swapping out 1 last Commuter slot for another Main line.
This would give them 5 daily main line LGB-SLC flights to feed the HUB.

As for Southwest.
I can see 9 slots.
1 LAS
1 DEN
3 SJC
3 PHX
1 additional SMF making it 3 daily.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
PSA1978
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The data for Long Beach is kind of worthelsss at this point. JetBlue was flying too many seats on some of those routes.
Southwest is to new for that to be valuable.
JetBlue should get much stronger as the extra seats are reduced on these low fare routes, and there is just alot of change to happen. Southwest said it themselves they have been asking for more Long Beach access, will here it is.

ONT is not really a LAX overflow airport for short hops it's too far, Long Beach can be for both LAX and SNA.

Delta is the question to me, B6 is still flying 3x A320 to SLC do you flood that market, do nothing, or add a SEA spoke to compliment? Delta has historically wanted Long Beach slots to rain on JetBlue's SLC parade but they have a decent offering now. Delta is the interesting one to me, Southwest I expect to apply for slots.

You are delusional. There are markets where b6 is not in and are absolutely low yielding. Aa refuse to even fly to Dallas out of there and have by far the lowest yield to Phoenix out of lgb.

TPHuang, are you saying that no airlines are going to add flights because the yields ? You have an excellent point that LGB is not a great money maker against ONT and BUR. I see your point about AA, the could have already added some service and they have not.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:55 pm

LGB is the middle child between LAX and SNA. B6 has been the only airline that made it work for so long there other than JetAmerica. I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into the pool. Can someone clarify and correct me if I’m wrong on that?

If anything I see a few slots to WN, a few to DL, a few to AA. Who knows.

I did see further reductions on the OAG post later down the line this year for B6 on non-transcon flts which I assume will be even more slots and an exit strategy from the LGB market other than a few dailies to BOS,JFK.
717 727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 742 748 752 753 762 763 772 773 DC9 MD80/88/90 DC10 319 320 321 332 333 CS100 CRJ200 Q400 E175 E190 ERJ145 EMB120
 
tphuang
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:25 pm

PSA1978 wrote:
TPHuang, are you saying that no airlines are going to add flights because the yields ? You have an excellent point that LGB is not a great money maker against ONT and BUR. I see your point about AA, the could have already added some service and they have not.

No, I'm simply saying that it's not that attractive of slots. I could see WN getting it to work if they use the strategy ScottB mentioned, but the problem is that they don't have enough slots (even if they get 9 out of 11) to run a good enough schedule to pick up business passengers. They'd need more slots. I think WN would have a chance of making it work if B6 gives up all of their slots. I don't think anyone else can really make it work outside of a couple of flights to their major hubs. Even then, it'd be a struggle as seen with AA and DL.

nine4nine wrote:
I did see further reductions on the OAG post later down the line this year for B6 on non-transcon flts which I assume will be even more slots and an exit strategy from the LGB market other than a few dailies to BOS,JFK.

I think if it's down to that, B6 would pull out completely.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:11 pm

LGB is hampered by the amount of slots available, and its location. There just aren’t enough slots In total to make a compelling operation, and the airport is stuck in between 2 other, more robust airports.

To people from the south, the airport is more convienent than LAX, but less convenient than SNA. To people from the north it’s less convienent all around, and it can only compete on price. The only consolation for LGB is the long runway- which is hampered by the limited amount of slots.
The only people that airport is “the most convienent airport” are those who live in Long Beach and immediately adjacent to the airport- unfortunately those people have made it clear they don’t want the noise and would rather drive the 45 minutes to LAX or SNA.
Boiler Up!
 
dc10lover
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:13 am

Maybe Long Beach Airport should simply shut down. JetBlue to move operations to Ontario, California.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:28 am

dc10lover wrote:
Maybe Long Beach Airport should simply shut down. JetBlue to move operations to Ontario, California.


I’d hate to see commercial service end at Long Beach. Like the railroads, who were eager to shed capacity and sever main lines due to under-use and now struggle to handle heavy volumes, there is likely no way to get it back as the population grows. Is it really better to eliminate such a unique asset?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:49 am

nine4nine wrote:
LGB is the middle child between LAX and SNA. B6 has been the only airline that made it work for so long there other than JetAmerica. I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into the pool. Can someone clarify and correct me if I’m wrong on that?

If anything I see a few slots to WN, a few to DL, a few to AA. Who knows.

I did see further reductions on the OAG post later down the line this year for B6 on non-transcon flts which I assume will be even more slots and an exit strategy from the LGB market other than a few dailies to BOS,JFK.


I guess the draw-down of LGB by B6 would eventually happen. B6 made some attempts to expand along the west coast like SEA-SAN, but it did not work out. In a way, I think the reduction at LGB is a victory for AS and WN. We all know that AS outbid B6 for VX essentially preventing B6 from greatly expanding along the West Coast. As for WN, the newcomer at LGB, won against B6 more for their popularity and brand identity.

I can definitely see WN adding city-pairs or frequency. I also wouldn't be surprised to see AS return to LGB.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:46 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Maybe Long Beach Airport should simply shut down. JetBlue to move operations to Ontario, California.


I’d hate to see commercial service end at Long Beach. Like the railroads, who were eager to shed capacity and sever main lines due to under-use and now struggle to handle heavy volumes, there is likely no way to get it back as the population grows. Is it really better to eliminate such a unique asset?

I prefer using LGB. I might be in a minority... but the reality is driving time to LAX and LGB is the same (once one world way is taken into account).

The railroads are a good analogy. Once they lost right of way, its gone. Remember how LA once had a massive network of rail transit? Now we have freeways they won't expand. Sigh...

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
jetero
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:29 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I guess the draw-down of LGB by B6 would eventually happen.


Is it really a drawdown? The flights are going back to 2016, pre-WN levels. If anything is being drawn down, it is the flights that were added to compete with WN.
 
tphuang
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:39 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
LGB is the middle child between LAX and SNA. B6 has been the only airline that made it work for so long there other than JetAmerica. I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into the pool. Can someone clarify and correct me if I’m wrong on that?

If anything I see a few slots to WN, a few to DL, a few to AA. Who knows.

I did see further reductions on the OAG post later down the line this year for B6 on non-transcon flts which I assume will be even more slots and an exit strategy from the LGB market other than a few dailies to BOS,JFK.


I guess the draw-down of LGB by B6 would eventually happen. B6 made some attempts to expand along the west coast like SEA-SAN, but it did not work out. In a way, I think the reduction at LGB is a victory for AS and WN. We all know that AS outbid B6 for VX essentially preventing B6 from greatly expanding along the West Coast. As for WN, the newcomer at LGB, won against B6 more for their popularity and brand identity.

I can definitely see WN adding city-pairs or frequency. I also wouldn't be surprised to see AS return to LGB.


It depends on your definition of "winning". I've been long advocating B6 to close to LGB and move elsewhere. And that's due to market condition, not due to WN. WN is loosing money on every route it ran out of LGB, even more than B6 in most cases.

Reality is if B6 had "won" VX, it would've had to spend a lot of money on the merging process and be left vulnerable at BOS to a DL buildup. It simply wasn't in as good of a financial position as AS was to merge with VX (even though it was a much better fit). And now we have a situation where B6 is effectively locked out of WC until the next recession, but have gotten much stronger in BOS/FLL and still has room to grow more. And if JFK looses slot restrictions in a couple of years, they will have plenty of resource to add out there and not be concerned about where they are in California.

It will be interesting to see how JFK-ONT turn out. They have put in a very low risk red-eye flight in there. If it can perform close to JFK-BUR/LGB as a new purely red-eye flight, then I can see them move more and more of the operation from LGB over there. Or they can go the BUR approach, but then there is more competition there. Even if they stick with LGB, they are back down to a size that they are probably not going to loose much money anymore. I do think ONT is a better choice longer term.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:57 pm

Poor MCO is always left out of the conversation. Remember they are moving to a brand new southern terminal in a couple years there. I don't mourn the loss of LGB one second, when there is still so much to do out east. Its a sin that MCO is not connected to basically anywhere in the deep south and mid-west besides Atlanta and Austin. Everyone wants to vacation in Orlando, who cares about the small catchment around LGB and their next to free flights to vegas 100 times a day.

Grow BOS, Grow FLL, and if the situation is still the same outwest, who cares, GROW MCO
 
ScottB
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:14 pm

nine4nine wrote:
I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into the pool. Can someone clarify and correct me if I’m wrong on that?


I don't believe the seat allocations at SNA are a use-it-or-lose-it thing; they're just a cap on passengers for each airline on an annual basis. WN lost seat allocations for this year because they also lost supplemental slots. There's really very little to "cannibalize" at LAX. A few extra flights at LGB are a rounding error compared to the vast ocean of capacity from LAX to the Bay Area

tphuang wrote:
No, I'm simply saying that it's not that attractive of slots. I could see WN getting it to work if they use the strategy ScottB mentioned, but the problem is that they don't have enough slots (even if they get 9 out of 11) to run a good enough schedule to pick up business passengers. They'd need more slots. I think WN would have a chance of making it work if B6 gives up all of their slots.


WN can get close to good enough with another 9 slots. I'd guess they'd add another to OAK (5x total), 2 or 3 to SMF (4-5x total), and either go to LAS, SJC, or SFO (I'd rank them in that order of likelihood due to the ability to flow connections) with another 5x. That allows a schedule which works well for most people to/from each city. B6's key problem has long been trying to cover too many bases from LGB with not enough slots, as others have pointed out. WN has T1 at LAX so they can offer 120+ daily departures and a more comprehensive set of destinations, while covering the dense short-haul markets from the regional airports.

tphuang wrote:
What is everyone else seeing that I'm not? It seems like at best, LGB yields are consistently at 75% of ONT on carriers that operate in all 3.


So I read your post in the other thread and the one glaring issue I see is that your RASM numbers aren't quite right. It looks like you're combining two data sources without accounting for the fact that the meaning of each source is slightly different. For example, in a market like ONT-LAS, the vast majority of passengers are connecting, so the average fare of ~ $160 is really only applicable to 10-25% of passengers. Even ONT-OAK is carrying a fair number of connections so RASM in reality is going to be lower. (FWIW, ONT-LAS will always struggle for O&D because the drive through the desert is pretty easy.)

Moving the B6 operation to ONT is problematic for a couple of reasons. Gates and curfew aren't a problem like they are at BUR, but in the key short-haul routes, WN is well-entrenched and has a lot of passenger loyalty; they command nearly 60% market share at the airport. Going up against that will be expensive, and it's not clear that the air travel market from the relatively less-wealthy Inland Empire is really worth that investment.
 
tphuang
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:42 pm

ScottB wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into the pool. Can someone clarify and correct me if I’m wrong on that?


I don't believe the seat allocations at SNA are a use-it-or-lose-it thing; they're just a cap on passengers for each airline on an annual basis. WN lost seat allocations for this year because they also lost supplemental slots. There's really very little to "cannibalize" at LAX. A few extra flights at LGB are a rounding error compared to the vast ocean of capacity from LAX to the Bay Area

tphuang wrote:
No, I'm simply saying that it's not that attractive of slots. I could see WN getting it to work if they use the strategy ScottB mentioned, but the problem is that they don't have enough slots (even if they get 9 out of 11) to run a good enough schedule to pick up business passengers. They'd need more slots. I think WN would have a chance of making it work if B6 gives up all of their slots.


WN can get close to good enough with another 9 slots. I'd guess they'd add another to OAK (5x total), 2 or 3 to SMF (4-5x total), and either go to LAS, SJC, or SFO (I'd rank them in that order of likelihood due to the ability to flow connections) with another 5x. That allows a schedule which works well for most people to/from each city. B6's key problem has long been trying to cover too many bases from LGB with not enough slots, as others have pointed out. WN has T1 at LAX so they can offer 120+ daily departures and a more comprehensive set of destinations, while covering the dense short-haul markets from the regional airports.

tphuang wrote:
What is everyone else seeing that I'm not? It seems like at best, LGB yields are consistently at 75% of ONT on carriers that operate in all 3.


So I read your post in the other thread and the one glaring issue I see is that your RASM numbers aren't quite right. It looks like you're combining two data sources without accounting for the fact that the meaning of each source is slightly different. For example, in a market like ONT-LAS, the vast majority of passengers are connecting, so the average fare of ~ $160 is really only applicable to 10-25% of passengers. Even ONT-OAK is carrying a fair number of connections so RASM in reality is going to be lower. (FWIW, ONT-LAS will always struggle for O&D because the drive through the desert is pretty easy.)

Moving the B6 operation to ONT is problematic for a couple of reasons. Gates and curfew aren't a problem like they are at BUR, but in the key short-haul routes, WN is well-entrenched and has a lot of passenger loyalty; they command nearly 60% market share at the airport. Going up against that will be expensive, and it's not clear that the air travel market from the relatively less-wealthy Inland Empire is really worth that investment.


It's not perfect and doesn't account for connection traffic and such, so additional thoughts are required, but it combines the 2 things we have access to (fare data + lf). But the majority of where B6 would add flights to would have no WN competition (WN doesn't even fly to SLC/SEA/PDX/SFO out of ONT).

Given where B6 is likely to add flights to, where is the best airport? Beggars can't be choosers. If it can do better on routes like JFK/BOS/FLL/MCO/AUS/SLC vs what it gets over at LGB or BUR, then sustaining some losses on shorthaul flights is worth it. The data suggest that ONT does better on flights of great than 500 miles. I think that's due to its distance away from LAX. But B6 will get to test the idea out when it relaunches this year. My point is to not throw this idea out just because catchment area is less wealthy. ONT has more of a captive market than BUR or LGB. On top of that, they will at least have the option of adding Mexican flights in an area with VFR population to provide connection opportunities. And B6 has done well with VFR traffic on the East Coast. That's at least something they can try which is not available at BUR/LGB/SNA.

As for LGB, it's possible that 5 a day schedule to 3 airport works. Again, the OAK numbers are not encouraging, but maybe that will change with time. I would imagine B6 will exit OAK/SJC in another year. So that might help WN slightly there.

CobaltScar wrote:
Poor MCO is always left out of the conversation. Remember they are moving to a brand new southern terminal in a couple years there. I don't mourn the loss of LGB one second, when there is still so much to do out east. Its a sin that MCO is not connected to basically anywhere in the deep south and mid-west besides Atlanta and Austin. Everyone wants to vacation in Orlando, who cares about the small catchment around LGB and their next to free flights to vegas 100 times a day.

Grow BOS, Grow FLL, and if the situation is still the same outwest, who cares, GROW MCO

totally agree, MCO after they move into new terminal. But WN is a lot stronger at MCO than FLL. And I'm with you on the MCO-SFO.
 
WN732
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
ScottB wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into the pool. Can someone clarify and correct me if I’m wrong on that?


I don't believe the seat allocations at SNA are a use-it-or-lose-it thing; they're just a cap on passengers for each airline on an annual basis. WN lost seat allocations for this year because they also lost supplemental slots. There's really very little to "cannibalize" at LAX. A few extra flights at LGB are a rounding error compared to the vast ocean of capacity from LAX to the Bay Area

tphuang wrote:
No, I'm simply saying that it's not that attractive of slots. I could see WN getting it to work if they use the strategy ScottB mentioned, but the problem is that they don't have enough slots (even if they get 9 out of 11) to run a good enough schedule to pick up business passengers. They'd need more slots. I think WN would have a chance of making it work if B6 gives up all of their slots.


WN can get close to good enough with another 9 slots. I'd guess they'd add another to OAK (5x total), 2 or 3 to SMF (4-5x total), and either go to LAS, SJC, or SFO (I'd rank them in that order of likelihood due to the ability to flow connections) with another 5x. That allows a schedule which works well for most people to/from each city. B6's key problem has long been trying to cover too many bases from LGB with not enough slots, as others have pointed out. WN has T1 at LAX so they can offer 120+ daily departures and a more comprehensive set of destinations, while covering the dense short-haul markets from the regional airports.

tphuang wrote:
What is everyone else seeing that I'm not? It seems like at best, LGB yields are consistently at 75% of ONT on carriers that operate in all 3.


So I read your post in the other thread and the one glaring issue I see is that your RASM numbers aren't quite right. It looks like you're combining two data sources without accounting for the fact that the meaning of each source is slightly different. For example, in a market like ONT-LAS, the vast majority of passengers are connecting, so the average fare of ~ $160 is really only applicable to 10-25% of passengers. Even ONT-OAK is carrying a fair number of connections so RASM in reality is going to be lower. (FWIW, ONT-LAS will always struggle for O&D because the drive through the desert is pretty easy.)

Moving the B6 operation to ONT is problematic for a couple of reasons. Gates and curfew aren't a problem like they are at BUR, but in the key short-haul routes, WN is well-entrenched and has a lot of passenger loyalty; they command nearly 60% market share at the airport. Going up against that will be expensive, and it's not clear that the air travel market from the relatively less-wealthy Inland Empire is really worth that investment.


It's not perfect and doesn't account for connection traffic and such, so additional thoughts are required, but it combines the 2 things we have access to (fare data + lf). But the majority of where B6 would add flights to would have no WN competition (WN doesn't even fly to SLC/SEA/PDX/SFO out of ONT).

Given where B6 is likely to add flights to, where is the best airport? Beggars can't be choosers. If it can do better on routes like JFK/BOS/FLL/MCO/AUS/SLC vs what it gets over at LGB or BUR, then sustaining some losses on shorthaul flights is worth it. The data suggest that ONT does better on flights of great than 500 miles. I think that's due to its distance away from LAX. But B6 will get to test the idea out when it relaunches this year. My point is to not throw this idea out just because catchment area is less wealthy. ONT has more of a captive market than BUR or LGB. On top of that, they will at least have the option of adding Mexican flights in an area with VFR population to provide connection opportunities. And B6 has done well with VFR traffic on the East Coast. That's at least something they can try which is not available at BUR/LGB/SNA.

As for LGB, it's possible that 5 a day schedule to 3 airport works. Again, the OAK numbers are not encouraging, but maybe that will change with time. I would imagine B6 will exit OAK/SJC in another year. So that might help WN slightly there.

CobaltScar wrote:
Poor MCO is always left out of the conversation. Remember they are moving to a brand new southern terminal in a couple years there. I don't mourn the loss of LGB one second, when there is still so much to do out east. Its a sin that MCO is not connected to basically anywhere in the deep south and mid-west besides Atlanta and Austin. Everyone wants to vacation in Orlando, who cares about the small catchment around LGB and their next to free flights to vegas 100 times a day.

Grow BOS, Grow FLL, and if the situation is still the same outwest, who cares, GROW MCO

totally agree, MCO after they move into new terminal. But WN is a lot stronger at MCO than FLL. And I'm with you on the MCO-SFO.



They do fly ONT-PDX.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6646
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
As for LGB, it's possible that 5 a day schedule to 3 airport works. Again, the OAK numbers are not encouraging, but maybe that will change with time. I would imagine B6 will exit OAK/SJC in another year. So that might help WN slightly there.


As I'd mentioned before, the key advantage WN would have is the ability to flow connections over the cities connected to LGB. They typically prefer to carry non-stop O&D traffic but the connections can help to bolster the traffic numbers (as with ONT-LAS) where the O&D won't make the route work on its own. We'll see if the OAK numbers improve with B6 drawing down capacity.

tphuang wrote:
The data suggest that ONT does better on flights of great than 500 miles.


I don't think the data are that conclusive for ONT just because the O&D numbers are so thin for the longer flights. ONT-DEN is roughly 200 daily each way while ONT-SLC is half as large at prevailing fare levels. If B6 were to dump a bunch of capacity into either market, focused primarily on O&D, I think we'd see fares come crashing down there, too.

tphuang wrote:
the majority of where B6 would add flights to would have no WN competition


But most of those markets just don't have a whole lot of demand from ONT. Lowering fares and offering non-stops would absolutely stimulate some demand, but I suspect the yields would be as bad as they are at LGB, if not worse.
 
tphuang
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:49 pm

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The data suggest that ONT does better on flights of great than 500 miles.


I don't think the data are that conclusive for ONT just because the O&D numbers are so thin for the longer flights. ONT-DEN is roughly 200 daily each way while ONT-SLC is half as large at prevailing fare levels. If B6 were to dump a bunch of capacity into either market, focused primarily on O&D, I think we'd see fares come crashing down there, too.


tphuang wrote:
the majority of where B6 would add flights to would have no WN competition


But most of those markets just don't have a whole lot of demand from ONT. Lowering fares and offering non-stops would absolutely stimulate some demand, but I suspect the yields would be as bad as they are at LGB, if not worse.


I didn't say data is conclusive, but that it shouldn't be assumed that ONT is worse just because the surrounding area is less wealthy. If it was conclusive, B6 would've been there long ago. There are other factors at play.

on the cases where we have data of Dallas, phoenix and slc, ONT does better than BUR and LGB. there is more traffic to PHX out of ONT vs BUR/LGB. AA couldn't make LGB work but it does pretty well out of ONT. Traffic out of DEN is also higher at ONT than BUR/LGB. Same with capacity to Dallas. The only one with less traffic is SLC.

As for O&D out of ONT, We do know this. WN flies to MDW out of ONT, but not BUR. AA flies to DFW out of ONT but not BUR/LGB. And AS couldn't make SEA/PDX work out of LGB, but it could with ONT/BUR. If B6 wasn't at LGB, would there ever get any flights to JFK/BOS/FLL? If anything, adding capacity to ONT is less likely to draw customers away from their LAX transcon franchise.

I agree that dumping capacity would decrease yield, but there are a lot of markets that B6 would not face any competition JFK/BOS/FLL/MCO/AUS/RNO + any Mexican markets. And for any that does, there is a long way to go before they reach LGB level. It certainly could be worse than LGB for those markets, but we won't know until B6 starts to add flights there.
 
jetero
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
As for O&D out of ONT, We do know this. WN flies to MDW out of ONT, but not BUR. AA flies to DFW out of ONT but not BUR/LGB.


And what was that like 10 years ago? I'd hope that cutting a whopping 40% of capacity over the past decade would result in improved profitability.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Tue May 01, 2018 10:41 pm

Rumor now is that AS may focus elsewhere in the LA basin and may not go back to LGB after all.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
nine4nine
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Tue May 01, 2018 11:41 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Rumor now is that AS may focus elsewhere in the LA basin and may not go back to LGB after all.



Why would they return to LGB. It would be what the 4th attempt to make it work?
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EA CO AS
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Tue May 01, 2018 11:57 pm

nine4nine wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
Rumor now is that AS may focus elsewhere in the LA basin and may not go back to LGB after all.



Why would they return to LGB. It would be what the 4th attempt to make it work?


Back in the day, AS had 3X daily SFOLGB, OAKLGB, plus a number of SEALGB and PDXLGB flights. Given that there's now "critical mass" in the form of at least SFO/SJC at one end, I thought it would merit taking another look at. But, the rumors I'm hearing now are that LGB just isn't that appealing.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 2:14 pm

Midweek update.
Frontier/F9 now interested in LGB again.
This will give them automatically 2 slots with a chance for more in the lottery system.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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enilria
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 2:47 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Midweek update.
Frontier/F9 now interested in LGB again.
This will give them automatically 2 slots with a chance for more in the lottery system.

Flyguy

With 2 slots they can add 9 routes. ;)
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 3:29 pm

F9 running a mix of routes will end in failure the same way G4 flopped at LGB.
With slot usage requirements F9 will need to find flying to keep slots occupied year round which is easier said than done as G4 found out. Summer is easy, but winters are much harder to sustain low-frequency markets.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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FA9295
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 3:34 pm

LAXintl wrote:
F9 running a mix of routes will end in failure the same way G4 flopped at LGB.
With slot usage requirements F9 will need to find flying to keep slots occupied year round which is easier said than done as G4 found out. Summer is easy, but winters are much harder to sustain low-frequency markets.

:checkmark: Right on point here. I would suspect them to launch DEN-LGB. Other than that, i'm not sure what else they'd do. Possibly AUS and/or SAT to LGB, however, they would have to compete with B6 and steal some of their loyal LGB flyers. (since B6 already has LGB-AUS on their route network)...
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1381
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 3:47 pm

FA9295 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
F9 running a mix of routes will end in failure the same way G4 flopped at LGB.
With slot usage requirements F9 will need to find flying to keep slots occupied year round which is easier said than done as G4 found out. Summer is easy, but winters are much harder to sustain low-frequency markets.

:checkmark: Right on point here. I would suspect them to launch DEN-LGB. Other than that, i'm not sure what else they'd do. Possibly AUS and/or SAT to LGB, however, they would have to compete with B6 and steal some of their loyal LGB flyers. (since B6 already has LGB-AUS on their route network)...

I think DEN would be pushing the limits. I suspect most of the flights will be concentrated in CA and the Southwest U.S. Maybe a one-off to the East Coast.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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diverdave
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 4:00 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Rumor now is that AS may focus elsewhere in the LA basin and may not go back to LGB after all.


I would not expect to see AS re-enter the LGB market while they are still occupied with the merger.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 4:15 pm

Wasn’t F9 service to DEN from LGB short lived and already done previously with A318 service?
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ucdtim17
Posts: 565
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 4:29 pm

diverdave wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
Rumor now is that AS may focus elsewhere in the LA basin and may not go back to LGB after all.


I would not expect to see AS re-enter the LGB market while they are still occupied with the merger.


They are still a fraction of the frequency of WN on many routes they have started and have not really done anything at all at much larger airports than LGB (e.g. OAK, SMF).
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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JRe: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 4:37 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Wasn’t F9 service to DEN from LGB short lived and already done previously with A318 service?

Yes that was the old F9.
With the ULCC F9 I think this time around They wouldn't concentrate everything to DEN.
Look at ISP they came In and threw darts at a lot of markets.
I expect them to do something similar in the LGB.
Unlike Allegiant F9 actually flys to more main line locations that could actually drawl passengers.

I think all airlines have until next week to submit final bids for slots.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 565
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 4:39 pm

For all those speculating about who will try for the slots @JetBlue vacated at @LBAirport, you can scratch @AlaskaAir off your list for the same reasons most others aren't interested: "Long Beach just looks like a very challenging environment"


https://twitter.com/crankyflier/status/ ... 6803386368
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1358
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 5:11 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
F9 running a mix of routes will end in failure the same way G4 flopped at LGB.
With slot usage requirements F9 will need to find flying to keep slots occupied year round which is easier said than done as G4 found out. Summer is easy, but winters are much harder to sustain low-frequency markets.

:checkmark: Right on point here. I would suspect them to launch DEN-LGB. Other than that, i'm not sure what else they'd do. Possibly AUS and/or SAT to LGB, however, they would have to compete with B6 and steal some of their loyal LGB flyers. (since B6 already has LGB-AUS on their route network)...

I think DEN would be pushing the limits. I suspect most of the flights will be concentrated in CA and the Southwest U.S. Maybe a one-off to the East Coast.


Does F9 fly any intra-California routes currently?
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 02, 2018 8:03 pm

AirFiero wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
:checkmark: Right on point here. I would suspect them to launch DEN-LGB. Other than that, i'm not sure what else they'd do. Possibly AUS and/or SAT to LGB, however, they would have to compete with B6 and steal some of their loyal LGB flyers. (since B6 already has LGB-AUS on their route network)...

I think DEN would be pushing the limits. I suspect most of the flights will be concentrated in CA and the Southwest U.S. Maybe a one-off to the East Coast.


Does F9 fly any intra-California routes currently?

No. The closest are flights from LAS to SJC/SFO
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4384
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Thu May 03, 2018 4:30 pm

B6 continues to mention Long Beach in all press releases, if that goes away i will panic. For now i do truly think this is just right sizing and nothing to panic about. They got rid of frequency flights that were loosing money. I think what left is profitable. Southwest will most likely grow larger but it might also grow the LGB fan base as a convenient LAX alternative, might not be the worst thing for B6.
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Sun May 06, 2018 1:24 am

According to sources LGB should be awarding the 11 vacant slots sometime next week.

Last rumors
Only WN,DL and F9 seeking slots.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
cynlb
Posts: 39
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 09, 2018 8:20 pm

Long Beach Airport Set For Overhaul After Council Approves $58.8 Million In Improvements-

https://lbpost.com/news/long-beach-airp ... rovements/
 
nine4nine
Posts: 503
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 09, 2018 11:08 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
According to sources LGB should be awarding the 11 vacant slots sometime next week.

Last rumors
Only WN,DL and F9 seeking slots.

Flyguy



Will F9 try to compete with WN on the DEN route?
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nine4nine
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Wed May 09, 2018 11:11 pm

cynlb wrote:
Long Beach Airport Set For Overhaul After Council Approves $58.8 Million In Improvements-

https://lbpost.com/news/long-beach-airp ... rovements/



Pretty cool it’s about time. Ticketing counter area at LGB are currently a cramped dump.

It’s a real shame they didn’t allow an FIS facility to go along with the new terminal and now the new ticketing area.
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wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Thu May 10, 2018 4:22 am

cynlb wrote:
Long Beach Airport Set For Overhaul After Council Approves $58.8 Million In Improvements-

https://lbpost.com/news/long-beach-airp ... rovements/


Thanks for the link!
Hopefully we will hear who get the vacated slots soon.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Fri May 18, 2018 5:34 pm

Well waiting on confirmation from a more reliable source but Rumor have the awards and results of the slot lottery as.
DL 2 as requested.
WN 5
F9 4.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Fri May 18, 2018 6:04 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Well waiting on confirmation from a more reliable source but Rumor have the awards and results of the slot lottery as.
DL 2 as requested.
WN 5
F9 4.


Flyguy


WN rues the day.....
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Fri May 18, 2018 7:06 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Well waiting on confirmation from a more reliable source but Rumor have the awards and results of the slot lottery as.
DL 2 as requested.
WN 5
F9 4.


Flyguy


WN rues the day.....

2 Other sources 1 saying Nothing been awarded yet and only DL and WN have applied for slots.
2nd saying DL requested 1 only to make all its current slots now unrestricted mainline availability.
F9 requested 3 got and Got 3.
WN requested 11 got 6.
Hawaiian passed on a 2nd Slot.
American passed on any slots.

Flyguy


Well between Delta, Southwest, and Frontier, I'd think every type of flyer is covered.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 1678
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Fri May 18, 2018 7:09 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Well waiting on confirmation from a more reliable source but Rumor have the awards and results of the slot lottery as.
DL 2 as requested.
WN 5
F9 4.


Flyguy


WN rues the day.....

2 Other sources 1 saying Nothing been awarded yet and only DL and WN have applied for slots.
2nd saying DL requested 1 only to make all its current slots now unrestricted mainline availability.
F9 requested 3 got and Got 3.
WN requested 11 got 6.
Hawaiian passed on a 2nd Slot.
American passed on any slots.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 503
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Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Thu May 31, 2018 1:12 pm

Any confirmed pdates on the LGB slot assignment awards?
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JBOC
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Southwest adds LGB service...but surprise, JetBlue isn't packing up just yet

Thu May 31, 2018 7:33 pm

As first reported in this forum by wnflyguy, WN is adding LGB-SMF and LGB-LAS service.

But B6 apparently still likes LGB, at least until Halloween:

http://www.ocbj.com/news/2018/may/31/so ... h-presence


Hmmmm........
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
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Re: Southwest adds LGB service...but surprise, JetBlue isn't packing up just yet

Thu May 31, 2018 8:33 pm

Hopefully these will be permanent additions for WN at LGB!
LGB airport officials have been very quiet about when they will release the remaining slots.
It was rumored a few weeks ago WN got approval from LGB for temporary additions until November.
Last rumor Was LGB had WN,F9 and DL all seeking additional slots.
Both AA and HA already passed on additional slots.
Hopefully with this schedule release LGB will update the flying public on it's timeline for additions and awards.
Maybe the local LB paper the press telegram will have luck getting the skinny on the future slot awards.

The 3 daily LAS and 4 SMF flights will probably further make B6 rethink it's level of service and destinations from LGB.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3639
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:24 am

Web500sjc wrote:
LGB is hampered by the amount of slots available, and its location. There just aren’t enough slots In total to make a compelling operation, and the airport is stuck in between 2 other, more robust airports.

To people from the south, the airport is more convienent than LAX, but less convenient than SNA. To people from the north it’s less convienent all around, and it can only compete on price. The only consolation for LGB is the long runway- which is hampered by the limited amount of slots.
The only people that airport is “the most convienent airport” are those who live in Long Beach and immediately adjacent to the airport- unfortunately those people have made it clear they don’t want the noise and would rather drive the 45 minutes to LAX or SNA.


Well there still are 460,000 people living in Long Beach. There is a market, but at low prices

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