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Dutchy
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Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:39 am

CHICAGO - The delivery of the first of 80 new Boeing aircraft to Iran Air has been postponed. Initially, the first a/c, a Boeing 77W, would be delivered this spring. But because of political issue's, this will be in 2019 at the earliest.

Iran Air signed for 50 Boeing 737Max, 15 Boeing 777-300ER and 15 Boeing 777-9.


https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... we-boeings

Yesterday Maron - the President of France - said he believed the Trump administration will pull out of the Iran deal and thus will make it impossible to deliver these a/c at all. So what do you guys think, will Iran Air gets its fleet renewable at all?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
RalXWB
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:10 am

Macron...not Maron :old:
 
Deeso
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:23 am

I'm curious if this will end up affecting the Iran - Airbus deal too because of restrictions on components produced in the U.S.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:29 am

40% of an Airbus is Made In The USA so I don’t see why we’re singling out Boeing for collateral damage if the Trump administration decide to torpedo the deal.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
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Channex757
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:07 am

The sequence of events will probably go like this.

Trump cancels all the Obama-era deals with Iran.
Iran says it needs defence against an unreliable partner and starts the nuclear programs of missiles and enrichment again
Trump instantly blocks sales of any and all components to Airbus that could end up on an Iranian aircraft as they can be reverse-engineered for missile guidance, or re-purposed. Simultaneously all the export licences issued to Boeing get cancelled.

Right or wrong, this is how the sequence will happen and Airbus will just put the orders on ice. Boeing will be expected to cancel theirs. Sum of the lot: nobody wins,.
 
NZ321
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:32 am

I fully expect that the US has Iran in its sights and the Boeing deal is off the table for the foreseeable future.

I imagine some time will lapse for Airbus to be included but maybe not a lot. So it could be bye-bye new aircraft deliveries for IR for some time.

Perhaps now is the time for IR to go shopping for second hand machines to bolster the fleet ahead of what is coming. The writing is on the wall.
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rotating14
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:39 am

The Boeing deal is basically dead. The OEM has found new homes for those aircraft initially destined for Iran.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1HW2A3

The head of the U.S. planemaker also signaled on Wednesday that Boeing is no longer as concerned as it once was that a collapse of the deal could force it to cut production of the 777 jetliner, threatening hundreds of jobs, due to a pickup in demand.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:00 pm

Were these ever firmed or shown as 'unidentified' by Boeing?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:49 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Were these ever firmed or shown as 'unidentified' by Boeing?


I don't believe so, no.
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brindabella
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:53 pm

scbriml wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Were these ever firmed or shown as 'unidentified' by Boeing?


I don't believe so, no.


Probably got it wrong - but I seem to recall AB logged the sales?

In 2016?

cheers
Billy
 
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Polot
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:00 pm

brindabella wrote:
scbriml wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Were these ever firmed or shown as 'unidentified' by Boeing?


I don't believe so, no.


Probably got it wrong - but I seem to recall AB logged the sales?

In 2016?

cheers

Yes, Airbus’s order was firmed. Boeing’s was not, unless it was done piecemeal over time under unidentified.
 
brindabella
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:38 am

Polot wrote:
brindabella wrote:
scbriml wrote:

I don't believe so, no.


Probably got it wrong - but I seem to recall AB logged the sales?

In 2016?

cheers

Yes, Airbus’s order was firmed. Boeing’s was not, unless it was done piecemeal over time under unidentified.


Well, I checked for some time thereafter - at least where the 777/777X was concerned.

I never saw any sign of the Iranian frames as the numbers shown on the BA website were never able to be reconciled with the Iranian order as publicised for 15+15 (IIRC).

So, in the absence of contrary data, my conclusion would be a reasonably firm - "no, BA never logged the orders".

Also consulting the memory banks from that far-off time:
Didn't AB publishing the Iranian order thereby give AB the 2016 crown for jetliner orders?

I could be wrong, of course.

cheers

PS - I observed Macron admitting to the US Congress that Trump was right and that the settlement with Iran as led by Obama was indeed "the worst deal ever made".
Macron is however apparently optimistic that this (first) agreement be saved.
Macron proposes leading the European countries which are signatories to the (first) agreement in a joint mission to force Iran to sign a SUPPLEMENTARY agreement intended to put a stopper on Iran's violations.
By doing so, Trump should be placated and the current agreement will also stay in force.

Could it happen? Who knows? I certainly don't!

However the Iranian aircraft deals with AB and BA are dead-letters IMO.
Elsewhere I have seen the Iranian leadership state that they are not making deposits to AB/BA as they are worried about losing the money.


:frown:

Pity.

cheers
Billy
 
Siddar
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:05 am

I wouldn't want to put up the money for Iran to buy any aircraft while Iran seems hell bent to have war with US.

My understanding is that Iran was trying to get Europe to loan the money to buy these planes.

Ending the deal with Iran is probably a good excuse to cancel this purchase with minimal amount of lost face by all involved.
 
Blerg
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:06 am

Iran's non-oil trade with France reached $1.8 billion, a jump of some 80%. Other countries such as Italy, Germany, Austria ... have also invested a lot. Not to mention that Europeans are also helping Iranians develop their aviation facilities. I doubt any European country will just accept Trump's decision to go back to isolating Iran.
It's US' right to leave the Iran Deal but I doubt they will have much influence over other nations.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:12 am

Siddar wrote:
I wouldn't want to put up the money for Iran to buy any aircraft while Iran seems hell bent to have war with the US

Other way round surely? I don’t see Iran building bases in Canada and Mexico and Iranian ships patrolling the Gulf Of Mexico
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:54 am

cedarjet wrote:
Siddar wrote:
I wouldn't want to put up the money for Iran to buy any aircraft while Iran seems hell bent to have war with the US

Other way round surely? I don’t see Iran building bases in Canada and Mexico and Iranian ships patrolling the Gulf Of Mexico


Thank you!!
Thanks and best Regards
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OA940
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 8:32 am

What about Airbus? They are supposed to give IR their first 35K and 339 this year. And I assume that they would also start delivering them A321's and A330-200's too again. Any info on that?
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Slash787
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:52 am

OA940 wrote:
What about Airbus? They are supposed to give IR their first 35K and 339 this year. And I assume that they would also start delivering them A321's and A330-200's too again. Any info on that?


I guess Airbus said that IR has not made any down payments, once they do that then they can go ahead with the deliveries. They don't just want to built the aircraft and then come to know that IR has no money and Airbus does not wants to take that risk.
 
Blerg
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:41 pm

Slash787 wrote:
OA940 wrote:
What about Airbus? They are supposed to give IR their first 35K and 339 this year. And I assume that they would also start delivering them A321's and A330-200's too again. Any info on that?


I guess Airbus said that IR has not made any down payments, once they do that then they can go ahead with the deliveries. They don't just want to built the aircraft and then come to know that IR has no money and Airbus does not wants to take that risk.


I think IR has not made any payments because they first want to make sure those planes will be delivered.
 
fsabo
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:09 pm

Blerg wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
OA940 wrote:
What about Airbus? They are supposed to give IR their first 35K and 339 this year. And I assume that they would also start delivering them A321's and A330-200's too again. Any info on that?


I guess Airbus said that IR has not made any down payments, once they do that then they can go ahead with the deliveries. They don't just want to built the aircraft and then come to know that IR has no money and Airbus does not wants to take that risk.


I think IR has not made any payments because they first want to make sure those planes will be delivered.


Even if it is not a problem to deliver some aircraft, concerns over future spare parts supply make the aircraft useless.
 
sas931
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:03 pm

I believe that if the order is cancelled, Boeing will probably have to lay off staff...and probably also affect the Boeing turn-around...The Iran Air deal is a big one for Boeing, and although also Airbus are using US parts, the order could end up in Euope/China instead...or perhaps and order for the new russian aircraft could be in the game again..
I cant believe that the US socalled president is so focuced on ending every deal made by the former president...The Nuclear deal is now controlled, but will swirl out of hand again, once the US withdraw from the deal...
 
salttee
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:36 pm

How far is Airbus from being able to eliminate American parts in their aircraft and go with all locally made components?
I don't see why they wouldn't / shouldn't do that.
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 01, 2018 5:32 am

salttee wrote:
How far is Airbus from being able to eliminate American parts in their aircraft and go with all locally made components?
I don't see why they wouldn't / shouldn't do that.


I think with a large percentage of the avionics etc. being produced in the States, changing them to something produced elsewhere could be extremely expensive, if not impossible.

It's a difficult situation, Iran has the money to buy a lot of these planes right now, but can you imagine if they put a large down-payment to Boeing, and Trump then cancels everything..do you really think they'll get their money back? I doubt it.

Considering many other airlines- Mahan, Kish etc. have done well getting used Airbuses from other countries, I'm amazed that Iran Air has not done the same. I'm sure they could have got a few jets from somewhere. I know there have been possible legal issues with this..the embargo etc. but it doesn't seem to stop the others, and i haven't seen or heard any Mahan A340s being impounded in Europe yet.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 6:56 pm

And TheDuck just confirmed that the deal is done, they withdraw themselves unilaterally from honoring the agreement the country signed, so the trade Boeing - Iran will never happen. Sanctions coming, because you know, axis-of-evil blabla. No airplanes expected to be exported anymore.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/08/poli ... index.html
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 7:01 pm

Hopefully Airbus is able to deliver their order.
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olle
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 7:50 pm

This is highly political. I have a sensation that Frau Merkel is fed up with Trump. Macron smiles but French companies like Airbus and Total grows fast into that market.
 
Blerg
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 7:50 pm

France, the UK and Germany said they will keep on abiding by the contract and that it's business as usual.
 
shankly
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 7:50 pm

Mr Trump just did the impossible....made the A340 a desirable beast!
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Revelation
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 7:59 pm

Blerg wrote:
France, the UK and Germany said they will keep on abiding by the contract and that it's business as usual.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... vely-dead/ says:

U.S. sanctions will probably also bar further deliveries of Airbus planes to Iran because all its jets contain a significant amount of U.S. parts, so they are covered by the sanctions.

Trump said that any nation breaking the U.S. “nuclear sanctions” would be punished.

Richard Aboulafia, aviation analyst with the Teal Group, said Airbus sales to Iran are now a “legal gray area.”

While the Airbus deal is not necessarily totally dead, prospects for filling it are “not great,” he said.

So unless Airbus removes US content from its products and/or accepts the risk of being "punished", the Airbus orders are on hold too.
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Eyad89
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
Blerg wrote:
France, the UK and Germany said they will keep on abiding by the contract and that it's business as usual.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... vely-dead/ says:

U.S. sanctions will probably also bar further deliveries of Airbus planes to Iran because all its jets contain a significant amount of U.S. parts, so they are covered by the sanctions.

Trump said that any nation breaking the U.S. “nuclear sanctions” would be punished.

Richard Aboulafia, aviation analyst with the Teal Group, said Airbus sales to Iran are now a “legal gray area.”

While the Airbus deal is not necessarily totally dead, prospects for filling it are “not great,” he said.

So unless Airbus removes US content from its products and/or accepts the risk of being "punished", the Airbus orders are on hold too.


I don’t think the US can punish Airbus, Trump doesn’t wanna get himself in the mess that follows. what the US can do is punish American companies that deal with Airbus.

France, Germany, and UK will keep dealing with Iran as they were before the announcement. Airbus, on the other hand, simply won’t be able to deliver without American parts. I’d say the IR deal is dead.
 
IranianMan123
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:09 pm

Will be interesting to see what happens to the two Iran Air ATR's that have been prepared for delivery at TLS. Im guessing these two will go through at the very least?
 
32andBelow
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:13 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Blerg wrote:
France, the UK and Germany said they will keep on abiding by the contract and that it's business as usual.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... vely-dead/ says:

U.S. sanctions will probably also bar further deliveries of Airbus planes to Iran because all its jets contain a significant amount of U.S. parts, so they are covered by the sanctions.

Trump said that any nation breaking the U.S. “nuclear sanctions” would be punished.

Richard Aboulafia, aviation analyst with the Teal Group, said Airbus sales to Iran are now a “legal gray area.”

While the Airbus deal is not necessarily totally dead, prospects for filling it are “not great,” he said.

So unless Airbus removes US content from its products and/or accepts the risk of being "punished", the Airbus orders are on hold too.


I don’t think the US can punish Airbus, Trump doesn’t wanna get himself in the mess that follows. what the US can do is punish American companies that deal with Airbus.

France, Germany, and UK will keep dealing with Iran as they were before the announcement. Airbus, on the other hand, simply won’t be able to deliver without American parts. I’d say the IR deal is dead.

The us companies that make a lot of the parts won’t be able to sell to Iran
 
Egerton
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:13 pm

President Trump is withdrawing from the Iran deal, whilst the other parties have not. The President has also given 90 days notice of exceedingly strong sanctions being imposed to any firm who fails to comply. This will put these sanctions on Russian firms, Chinese firms and all others including European firms who step out of line. It has to be said that with the almighty dollar being under the President's indirect control it will be interesting to learn what the City of London money men are going to do? Will they row in with the President, in which case the sanctions will work to a very high degree. Banks are more important than tanks just now.
Last edited by Egerton on Tue May 08, 2018 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:16 pm

Egerton wrote:
President Trump is withdrawing from the Iran deal, whilst the other parties have not. The President has also given 90 days notice of exceedingly strong sanctions being imposed to any firm who fails to comply. This will put these sanctions on Russian firms, Chinese firms and all others including European firms who step out of line. It has to be said that with the almighty dollar being under the President's indirect control it will be interesting to learn what the City of London money men are going to do? Will they row in with the President, in which case the sanctions will work to a very high degree. Banks and more important than tanks just now.


This will be very interesting.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:24 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Blerg wrote:
France, the UK and Germany said they will keep on abiding by the contract and that it's business as usual.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... vely-dead/ says:

U.S. sanctions will probably also bar further deliveries of Airbus planes to Iran because all its jets contain a significant amount of U.S. parts, so they are covered by the sanctions.

Trump said that any nation breaking the U.S. “nuclear sanctions” would be punished.

Richard Aboulafia, aviation analyst with the Teal Group, said Airbus sales to Iran are now a “legal gray area.”

While the Airbus deal is not necessarily totally dead, prospects for filling it are “not great,” he said.

So unless Airbus removes US content from its products and/or accepts the risk of being "punished", the Airbus orders are on hold too.


I don’t think the US can punish Airbus, Trump doesn’t wanna get himself in the mess that follows. what the US can do is punish American companies that deal with Airbus.

France, Germany, and UK will keep dealing with Iran as they were before the announcement. Airbus, on the other hand, simply won’t be able to deliver without American parts. I’d say the IR deal is dead.


The components are not earmarked. Airbus buys them, assembles the planes and sells them further. If Trump punished Airbus, EU retaliates. Btw, is there any Boeing plane with no European component?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:41 pm

YIMBY wrote:
The components are not earmarked. Airbus buys them, assembles the planes and sells them further. If Trump punished Airbus, EU retaliates. Btw, is there any Boeing plane with no European component?

It doesn't work that way.

All significant aerospace parts are traceable.

The way it'd work is a US vendor tries to export a part, US Customs looks for appropriate export permissions, see none, seizes parts, fines vendor.

The vendor could risk smuggling the part but then they'd be putting themselves at risk of far greater penalties.

Since the US aerospace industry is so tied to US government/military sales, they'd never risk it.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 8:49 pm

Prior to the Iran deal the sanctions basically cut off the parts supplies to Iran aviation. Financial sanctions are quite effective, those placed on the banks / traders on North Korea basically shut off nearly all Chinese banks from transactions with NK banks. If they did, they lose access to the US Banking system.

I believe that every Boeing, Airbus, and other commercial planes in the west have content from China, Russia, Europe, and the US in them.
 
IranianMan123
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 9:07 pm

Reminder to many people that this is a civil aviation thread. :)
 
727200
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 9:09 pm

Deal is dead. Boeing knew the risks going into it but tried to get it thru.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 9:35 pm

727200 wrote:
Deal is dead. Boeing knew the risks going into it but tried to get it thru.


Same on the Airbus side too. Too much of the A/C are US made - Iran Air, Mahan Air etc etc probably won't be seeing new planes for some time now...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE
 
DDR
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 10:14 pm

So France and Germany say they are going to do their own thing this time. Is there a way that they can get Airbus planes into Iran? What would realistically happen if Airbus went a head and sold planes to Iranian carriers?

Also, how difficult would it be in the future for Airbus to completely ditch all American made parts and replace them with European or Asian supplied parts?
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 10:32 pm

How about this. Anyone who brings facts to this discussion also cite the facts. Links are easy, and it might make for a more productive thread.
 
dz09
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 10:56 pm

I think Boeing and Airbus will be fine. Trump is only doing what he thinks is good for the interests of the US. the consequence of this will be higher oil prices which is going to be good for the global economy. I also think that Iran will be forced to reconsider its policies and come to its senses just like North Korea is doing.

I expect Saudi and the UAE to absorb the orders placed by Iran.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 11:14 pm

Deeso wrote:
I'm curious if this will end up affecting the Iran - Airbus deal too because of restrictions on components produced in the U.S.


I see Europe calling Trump’s bluff.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 11:20 pm

Boeing did percectly well without any Iranian orders, that won't change now.

I think the fate of the Airbus order is in the hands of Iran. If Iran retaliates Trumps decision by also stepping out of the deal as well the EU cannot do anyting but to also act and enforce new sanctions. Even if they really don't want to. Then it's also certain that the Airbus deal is of.

If Iran doesn't quit the deal and keeps working with the EU to make it work it could even mean more business for Airbus. But only if the American parts are not an issue.

It's going to be interesting to see what Iran will do now.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Tue May 08, 2018 11:28 pm

One of the biggest problems is actually going to be software, the stuff that runs the hardware is very likely to have been put together in the USA. Without it the parts are just so much junk.

Today's planes are so dependent on computer systems and it's from the USA that this bespoke software generally comes. So if Trump's 180 day directive cuts off the supply and maintenance of the software suites, the Airbus planes can't even get out of the factory.
 
subramak1
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Wed May 09, 2018 12:09 am

dz09 wrote:
I think Boeing and Airbus will be fine. Trump is only doing what he thinks is good for the interests of the US. the consequence of this will be higher oil prices which is going to be good for the global economy. I also think that Iran will be forced to reconsider its policies and come to its senses just like North Korea is doing.

I expect Saudi and the UAE to absorb the orders placed by Iran.



Higher oil prices are not good for US customers first or customers anywhere. They are only good for oil producing countries. You obviously don't remember the difficulties from 1973 oil embargo or from the 2007 oil price highs. This deal was negotiated painstakingly with multiple partners to assume that Iran took 6 smart nations for a ride is too hard to believe.

We will see where this lands

Subu
 
itisi
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Wed May 09, 2018 12:13 am

just pathetic...
737-300/400/500 ... are NOT classics :)
 
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caoimhin
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Wed May 09, 2018 12:22 am

subramak1 wrote:
dz09 wrote:
I think Boeing and Airbus will be fine. Trump is only doing what he thinks is good for the interests of the US. the consequence of this will be higher oil prices which is going to be good for the global economy. I also think that Iran will be forced to reconsider its policies and come to its senses just like North Korea is doing.

I expect Saudi and the UAE to absorb the orders placed by Iran.



Higher oil prices are not good for US customers first or customers anywhere. They are only good for oil producing countries. You obviously don't remember the difficulties from 1973 oil embargo or from the 2007 oil price highs. This deal was negotiated painstakingly with multiple partners to assume that Iran took 6 smart nations for a ride is too hard to believe.

We will see where this lands

Subu


To look at one large, but admittedly isolated area, of the global economy (which is highly pertinent on this forum), what happens to the sale of new aircraft when fuel prices trend higher? In other words, consumer spending is only one component of the overall global economy.
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Iran - Boeing deal

Wed May 09, 2018 12:30 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Deeso wrote:
I'm curious if this will end up affecting the Iran - Airbus deal too because of restrictions on components produced in the U.S.


I see Europe calling Trump’s bluff.


He won't care. He wants the U.S. to be isolationist, and it's going to backfire, and Boeing and Airbus both will suffer as a result.
I have been on this site 15 years. A unrecoverable email account led me to starting over. Those of you who call me a rookie, you may stop ok?

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