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Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:08 pm
by lhrsfosyd
It always baffles me that Osaka isn't connected to London with a direct service. Osaka currently has non stop flights to Paris, Amsterdam, Helsinki and Frankfurt which makes lack of London flights even more bizarre, especially in the era of new generation fuel efficient aircraft.

Why do you think it isn't served yet?

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:25 pm
by EvanWSFO
It seems to be a destination where many airlines go to die. From North America, there have been so many starts and stops to KIX it's hard to count.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 pm
by mercure1
Well both BA and JL have flown the route.

Like so many others, longhaul service from non Tokyo Japan airports is a tough thing to sustain for airlines.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:06 pm
by zakuivcustom
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sankei ... 001-a.html

Article was 2 years old (Japanese only, sorry), but it more or less described problem of KIX long haul - they can certainly fill the back of the plane, but premium demand is just not quite there, mainly due to the somewhat depressed economy of the greater Kansai area. On the flip side, London flight is definitely way up on the wish list for KIX.

Doesn't help that the most likely carrier that would restart the route, JL, is just very conservative in terms of growth.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:32 pm
by yeogeo
Kansai airport is a bit like a secondary French airport: dominated by the two airports in Paris. Tokyo's airports overshadow all others for long-distance flights... and there is the great train service in both countries that can take you from the capital to nearly everywhere within the country rapidly comfortably.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:04 am
by jfk777
The issue with Osaka to London is probably the lack of LHR slots. Osaka to London sounds like a great opportunity for Norwegian with its 787. Route probably not viable for the premium heavy BA or JAL 787 fleets. Japan has flights by Air Asia X and Scoot but they are still regional Asian flights, no LCC to the USA or Europe. A Viking to Osaka seems like the solution.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:27 am
by zakuivcustom
yeogeo wrote:
Kansai airport is a bit like a secondary French airport: dominated by the two airports in Paris. Tokyo's airports overshadow all others for long-distance flights... and there is the great train service in both countries that can take you from the capital to nearly everywhere within the country rapidly comfortably.


KIX vs. HND/NRT actually resembled more MAN vs. LON IMO (If you combine ITM and KIX together, that is...). French airports resembled more of the situation in S. Korea, where ICN/GMP dominates like CDG/ORY, with the "secondary" cities having very minimal long-haul flights (if any).

One other problem for LHR-KIX is that LHR slots are just VERY hard to come by. Either an airline has to pay TONS of money, or they'll have to shift current slots from somewhere else. NH currently only has 1x/day LHR slots (to HND), so that pretty much rules them out. JL currently operate 2x daily HND-LHR, and it would be an awful business decision to shift, let say, 1 of those 2 flights to KIX, when it involved slots and two heavily slot restricted airport. This leaves BA, who currently operate (to Japan) 1x HND-LHR and 1x NRT-LHR. Between NRT and KIX, I would say NRT is still more profitable.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 3:30 am
by a19901213
People in Kansai region are renowned for not paying premium for supeior products and this applies on air travel as well.

In the meantime Itami provides great connectivity to lots of destination around the world via HND (better time, cheaper ticket)

If a slot in LHR comes handy then I see the feasibility of this route unfortunately this is not the case.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 3:42 am
by aemoreira1981
While not LHR, how does Finnair make routes to Osaka, Fukuoka (seasonal), and Nagoya work? KIX and NGO are daily, while FUK is 3x weekly seasonally. KIX and NGO typically see the higher-J A330s (with KIX seeing the A359 starting in a week). That said, I see the major issue being no slots at LHR; otherwise, a BA B788 could work.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 4:29 am
by flyingclrs727
LHR needed a third runway 40 years ago.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 5:49 am
by VFRonTop
It is precisely the fact that there is already service from KIX to AMS, FRA, CDG and HEL that a flight to LHR isn't feasible. To be clear, BA has plenty of slot capacity at LHR, what they lack is longhaul aircraft which they choose to operate other more profitable routes. As people have mentioned this is not a premium heavy route so BA is happy to route less profitable leisure/VFR passengers through HEL and Finnair.

Finnair have created a nice operation at HEL, they fly to more destination in Asia than any of the EU3 thanks to the beneficial location and short connection times at HEL airport.

Image

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 5:55 am
by c933103
Maybe when AirAsiaX Japan become up and running which give Japan a low(er) cost long haul carrier then NGO and KIX could get more long haul flights

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 6:55 am
by LAX772LR
flyingclrs727 wrote:
LHR needed a third runway 40 years ago.

Ironically, it had one.

...just not one that was of any help. :(

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 7:28 am
by DobboDobbo
VFRonTop wrote:
BA has plenty of slot capacity at LHR


Agreed. I'm pretty sure JAL used one of those formerly spare BA slots to operate a second daily NRT-LHR...

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 8:33 am
by Ryanair01
I think the problem for London is that by quirk of geography you can easily transfer through all the hubs you mention.

I flew ANA LHR-KIX on a 742 non stop, all be it 18 years ago now. I seem to remember JAL flew MD11s. Beyond Panasonic, there aren't many Osaka businesses trading in the UK and vica versa. KIX was always a good option for very very cheap connections to Australia, which suggests to me they struggled to fill their seats. I seem to recall ANA/JAL both pulled the route during the H5N1 outbreak in 2003. Since then I've always connected at NRT and flown into ITM. I have family who fly via ICN or occasionally AMS.

I think lack of business links, lack of feed (CDG, AMS etc all have feed for eastbound flights) and a host of connecting options means LON-OSA is unlikely. I'd like to see it though :D

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 8:52 am
by PatrickZ80
jfk777 wrote:
Japan has flights by Air Asia X and Scoot but they are still regional Asian flights, no LCC to the USA or Europe.


That's not entirely true, AirAsia X flies Osaka - Honolulu and I believe Scoot is also on that route or at least has plans for it.

Osaka is a place where LCCs perform better than legacy airlines due to the lack of premium demand. Norwegian could make it work from Gatwick, but their problem is the lack of Russian overflight rights. I believe AirAsia X and Scoot don't have them either.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 9:13 am
by skipness1E
It's worth noting that we went from :

BA LHR-NRT
BA LHR-HND
JL LHR-HND
NH LHR-HND

......to another LHR-HND with JL on the 788.
LHR-OSA was dropped by both BA and latterly JAL a while back.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 9:26 am
by TC957
There's a load of easy one-change options for LHR-KIX but a direct service should do well for cargo.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 10:43 am
by c933103
PatrickZ80 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Japan has flights by Air Asia X and Scoot but they are still regional Asian flights, no LCC to the USA or Europe.


That's not entirely true, AirAsia X flies Osaka - Honolulu and I believe Scoot is also on that route or at least has plans for it.

Osaka is a place where LCCs perform better than legacy airlines due to the lack of premium demand. Norwegian could make it work from Gatwick, but their problem is the lack of Russian overflight rights. I believe AirAsia X and Scoot don't have them either.

Unlike European countries, there are little reason for Russia to deny overfly right from carriers of Asian countries

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:16 am
by zakuivcustom
c933103 wrote:
Maybe when AirAsiaX Japan become up and running which give Japan a low(er) cost long haul carrier then NGO and KIX could get more long haul flights


More long-haul, yes, but I am doubtful they will go Europe first. HNL, SE Asia (SIN or Indonesia, since both are somewhat on the edge of narrowbody range), and West Coast US/Canada would comefirst way before Europe is even mention anyway.

It is more likely that Jetstar Japan will get some 787s first anyway :scratchchin:

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 12:12 pm
by Kikko19
VFRonTop wrote:
It is precisely the fact that there is already service from KIX to AMS, FRA, CDG and HEL that a flight to LHR isn't feasible. To be clear, BA has plenty of slot capacity at LHR, what they lack is longhaul aircraft which they choose to operate other more profitable routes. As people have mentioned this is not a premium heavy route so BA is happy to route less profitable leisure/VFR passengers through HEL and Finnair.

Finnair have created a nice operation at HEL, they fly to more destination in Asia than any of the EU3 thanks to the beneficial location and short connection times at HEL airport.

Image

Watching this map you wonder why on earth Wow bosses even think about connecting flights to Asia... Sorry the OT

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 3:36 pm
by LX138
VFRonTop wrote:
It is precisely the fact that there is already service from KIX to AMS, FRA, CDG and HEL that a flight to LHR isn't feasible. To be clear, BA has plenty of slot capacity at LHR, what they lack is longhaul aircraft which they choose to operate other more profitable routes. As people have mentioned this is not a premium heavy route so BA is happy to route less profitable leisure/VFR passengers through HEL and Finnair.

Finnair have created a nice operation at HEL, they fly to more destination in Asia than any of the EU3 thanks to the beneficial location and short connection times at HEL airport.

Image


Do LH not fly to more Asian destinations than that?

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 5:27 pm
by Nami
LX138 wrote:
VFRonTop wrote:
It is precisely the fact that there is already service from KIX to AMS, FRA, CDG and HEL that a flight to LHR isn't feasible. To be clear, BA has plenty of slot capacity at LHR, what they lack is longhaul aircraft which they choose to operate other more profitable routes. As people have mentioned this is not a premium heavy route so BA is happy to route less profitable leisure/VFR passengers through HEL and Finnair.

Finnair have created a nice operation at HEL, they fly to more destination in Asia than any of the EU3 thanks to the beneficial location and short connection times at HEL airport.

Image


Do LH not fly to more Asian destinations than that?


Not sure, but what I can say is that the map is old; it’s missing Fukuoka, Guangzhou, Goa and Nanjing (which will start next week). AY is the biggest European carrier in Japan with 31 weekly flights this summer season.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 6:12 pm
by zakuivcustom
LX138 wrote:
VFRonTop wrote:
It is precisely the fact that there is already service from KIX to AMS, FRA, CDG and HEL that a flight to LHR isn't feasible. To be clear, BA has plenty of slot capacity at LHR, what they lack is longhaul aircraft which they choose to operate other more profitable routes. As people have mentioned this is not a premium heavy route so BA is happy to route less profitable leisure/VFR passengers through HEL and Finnair.

Finnair have created a nice operation at HEL, they fly to more destination in Asia than any of the EU3 thanks to the beneficial location and short connection times at HEL airport.

Image


Do LH not fly to more Asian destinations than that?


LH has way more Indian destination (AY only fly to DEL; LH fly to DEL, BOM, MAA, BLR, and PNQ. They used to fly to CCU and HYD as well.), but is otherwise somewhat similar in terms of East Asia destinations. AY has that seasonal flight to FUK alongside NGO, KIX and TYO (LH fly to HND only, AY to NRT only). Then you got ICN, HKG, PVG, PEK, BKK, and SIN that both LH and AY fly to. AY fly to XIY and CKG (and a seasonal flight to CAN) while LH fly to NKG and TAO for their "secondary" China destination. LH also fly to ALA (Almaty) and ASB (Ashgabat, via GYD/Baku) along with TSE (Astana, AY is seasonal only) along with all those Middle East destinations that AY doesn't touch (i.e. the aforementioned GYD, EBL, DMM, RUH, etc.), while AY has seasonal Thailand sun destination like KBV and HKT or GOI in India.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Tue May 01, 2018 6:35 pm
by LupineChemist
Also worth remembering that AY serves Japan as part of the AY/BA/IB/JL JV. So BA and JL already make money serving KIX

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 1:57 pm
by zakuivcustom
Bumping this thread up a little bit...

Although this was only noting the busiest international routes in the world, some of the connecting traffic flow are interesting:
https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/ ... 018-A4.pdf

Specifically, for LHR-AMS, KIX was #3 (behind ACC and LOS) in terms of connecting pax. To add along, on KIX-ICN, LHR connection is also a fair part of the traffic from ICN (Along with places like FCO and IST).

It's also funny how it match up with this (The ICN & AMS part):
Ryanair01 wrote:
I think the problem for London is that by quirk of geography you can easily transfer through all the hubs you mention.

I flew ANA LHR-KIX on a 742 non stop, all be it 18 years ago now. I seem to remember JAL flew MD11s. Beyond Panasonic, there aren't many Osaka businesses trading in the UK and vica versa. KIX was always a good option for very very cheap connections to Australia, which suggests to me they struggled to fill their seats. I seem to recall ANA/JAL both pulled the route during the H5N1 outbreak in 2003. Since then I've always connected at NRT and flown into ITM. I have family who fly via ICN or occasionally AMS.

I think lack of business links, lack of feed (CDG, AMS etc all have feed for eastbound flights) and a host of connecting options means LON-OSA is unlikely. I'd like to see it though :D


At the end, the demand is definitely there. Yield and slot, of course, is a whole different question.

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 3:48 pm
by c933103
zakuivcustom wrote:
Bumping this thread up a little bit...

Although this was only noting the busiest international routes in the world, some of the connecting traffic flow are interesting:
https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/ ... 018-A4.pdf

Specifically, for LHR-AMS, KIX was #3 (behind ACC and LOS) in terms of connecting pax. To add along, on KIX-ICN, LHR connection is also a fair part of the traffic from ICN (Along with places like FCO and IST).

It's also funny how it match up with this (The ICN & AMS part):
Ryanair01 wrote:
I think the problem for London is that by quirk of geography you can easily transfer through all the hubs you mention.

I flew ANA LHR-KIX on a 742 non stop, all be it 18 years ago now. I seem to remember JAL flew MD11s. Beyond Panasonic, there aren't many Osaka businesses trading in the UK and vica versa. KIX was always a good option for very very cheap connections to Australia, which suggests to me they struggled to fill their seats. I seem to recall ANA/JAL both pulled the route during the H5N1 outbreak in 2003. Since then I've always connected at NRT and flown into ITM. I have family who fly via ICN or occasionally AMS.

I think lack of business links, lack of feed (CDG, AMS etc all have feed for eastbound flights) and a host of connecting options means LON-OSA is unlikely. I'd like to see it though :D


At the end, the demand is definitely there. Yield and slot, of course, is a whole different question.

Given the potential yield, LGW would probably be a better option? But then how about aircraft?

Re: Viability of LHR-KIX route

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 5:08 pm
by zakuivcustom
c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Bumping this thread up a little bit...

Although this was only noting the busiest international routes in the world, some of the connecting traffic flow are interesting:
https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/ ... 018-A4.pdf

Specifically, for LHR-AMS, KIX was #3 (behind ACC and LOS) in terms of connecting pax. To add along, on KIX-ICN, LHR connection is also a fair part of the traffic from ICN (Along with places like FCO and IST).

It's also funny how it match up with this (The ICN & AMS part):
Ryanair01 wrote:
I think the problem for London is that by quirk of geography you can easily transfer through all the hubs you mention.

I flew ANA LHR-KIX on a 742 non stop, all be it 18 years ago now. I seem to remember JAL flew MD11s. Beyond Panasonic, there aren't many Osaka businesses trading in the UK and vica versa. KIX was always a good option for very very cheap connections to Australia, which suggests to me they struggled to fill their seats. I seem to recall ANA/JAL both pulled the route during the H5N1 outbreak in 2003. Since then I've always connected at NRT and flown into ITM. I have family who fly via ICN or occasionally AMS.

I think lack of business links, lack of feed (CDG, AMS etc all have feed for eastbound flights) and a host of connecting options means LON-OSA is unlikely. I'd like to see it though :D


At the end, the demand is definitely there. Yield and slot, of course, is a whole different question.

Given the potential yield, LGW would probably be a better option? But then how about aircraft?


LHR is of course the preferred option :rotfl:

But as PatrickZ80 already mentioned, Norwegian UK LGW-KIX would work the best, assuming that they can get Russia overflight rights.