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SonaSounds
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Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 6:42 pm

Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency
News
1-May-2018 12:44 PM
Air China plans to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose (California) frequency from three times weekly to twice weekly from 01-Jun-2018 through 31-Oct-2018, as per a 30-Apr-2018 GDS and inventory timetable display.

https://centreforaviation.com/news/air-china-to-reduce-shanghai-pudong-san-jose-frequency-795906


Dropping down 3x weekly to 2x weekly is not that significant of a change, but with LH recently reducing to just limited summer season service and now Air China is struggling during the peak travel period on their only PVG-USA route, do you think SJC has over expanded its international traffic? The population base surrounding SJC is huge and the numbers should support it, but for some reason SJC has always struggled against that airport just up the road.

Loads on this flight were 59.4% in 2016 and 62.1% in 2017.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 6:52 pm

San Jose (SJC) is not far from SFO which has a huge number of international flights and very competitive pricing. In theory, the area around SJC is loaded with $$ due to the Silicon Valley but those companies may be under contract with another carrier out of SFO for example and even rich folk love a bargain.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 6:54 pm

I recently posted an article from Biz-something that the LH winter reduction was due to crew shortages, I believe. I don’t doubt that another reason would be a typical off-season suspension, but some here said they didn’t expect this flight to return *at all*. It is back, and I believe at th same 5x frequency despite opinions that it was dead.

As for SJC being saturated with international flights...perhaps. But with the volume of flights at 800 pound gorilla SFO, you’d think at least SOME of that traffic comes from the South Bay and would be enough of fill a few flights.
 
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legacyins
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 6:56 pm

I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 7:01 pm

legacyins wrote:
I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.


That’s good news. So much for the naysayers.
 
steex
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 7:09 pm

legacyins wrote:
I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.


My best guess is that CA was both trying to keep HU off the route and get themselves into PVG-Bay Area without being able to get PVG-SFO (held by MU). While it is CA's only PVG-USA route, they do have other longhaul from PVG.

Regardless, though SJC does only have so much ability to support longhaul service, I think this is a case where HU would've been more committed and successful. CA probably is not the right carrier for this route.

I'm still curious to see if someone will eventually show interest in ICN-SJC, that feels like the last remaining longhaul route with reasonable potential in the short-term.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 7:10 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
San Jose (SJC) is not far from SFO which has a huge number of international flights and very competitive pricing. In theory, the area around SJC is loaded with $$ due to the Silicon Valley but those companies may be under contract with another carrier out of SFO for example and even rich folk love a bargain.


Good point about corporate traffic and United has always said half of there 1k members live in the Bay Area. SFO operates 21 flights a week during the summer to PVG. You would think SJC would be able to sustain 3x a week with the amount of travelers in the Bay Area that live closer to SJC than SFO. I guess the ties to mileage programs and connecting traffic play that big of a role!
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 7:13 pm

AirFiero wrote:
legacyins wrote:
I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.


That’s good news. So much for the naysayers.


Great to see LH making it work year round again! Hopefully they get a better product at SJC than the A340 soon. But with SFO going to an A340 on the SFO-FRA route the two airports should be on a more even playing field.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 7:20 pm

steex wrote:
legacyins wrote:
I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.


My best guess is that CA was both trying to keep HU off the route and get themselves into PVG-Bay Area without being able to get PVG-SFO (held by MU). While it is CA's only PVG-USA route, they do have other longhaul from PVG.

Regardless, though SJC does only have so much ability to support longhaul service, I think this is a case where HU would've been more committed and successful. CA probably is not the right carrier for this route.

I'm still curious to see if someone will eventually show interest in ICN-SJC, that feels like the last remaining longhaul route with reasonable potential in the short-term.


Rumor has it Korean was seriously considering SJC-ICN but they wanted to operate a evening/early morning flight to compliment the day flight operated at SFO. Because of the curfew at SJC the flight went to SFO which is now their 5x-7x weekly night.
 
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c933103
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 7:47 pm

from 01-Jun-2018 through 31-Oct-2018,

Most likely they want to add another flight to another US airport during the summer seasonal, and by doing so they have to cut a flight to somewhere in the US because the bilateral limit have already maxed out.
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AirFiero
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 8:15 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
steex wrote:
legacyins wrote:
I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.


My best guess is that CA was both trying to keep HU off the route and get themselves into PVG-Bay Area without being able to get PVG-SFO (held by MU). While it is CA's only PVG-USA route, they do have other longhaul from PVG.

Regardless, though SJC does only have so much ability to support longhaul service, I think this is a case where HU would've been more committed and successful. CA probably is not the right carrier for this route.

I'm still curious to see if someone will eventually show interest in ICN-SJC, that feels like the last remaining longhaul route with reasonable potential in the short-term.


Rumor has it Korean was seriously considering SJC-ICN but they wanted to operate a evening/early morning flight to compliment the day flight operated at SFO. Because of the curfew at SJC the flight went to SFO which is now their 5x-7x weekly night.


The curfew at SJC may be another limiting factor to growth. This is a good point.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 8:35 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
San Jose (SJC) is not far from SFO which has a huge number of international flights and very competitive pricing. In theory, the area around SJC is loaded with $$ due to the Silicon Valley but those companies may be under contract with another carrier out of SFO for example and even rich folk love a bargain.


United has always said half of there 1k members live in the Bay Area.


Really? Got a source for that?
 
mzlin
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 8:53 pm

As someone who lives halfway between SFO and SJC, I use both airports. It would be great if SJC had more international flights but I can see why it struggles relative to SFO. Unless you live south of the Dumbarton Bridge (Menlo Park on the peninsula, or Fremont in the East Bay), SFO will be as convenient or more convenient than SJC. That means the majority of the Bay Area population (East Bay north of Fremont, peninsular north of Menlo Park) finds SFO more convenient. Thus if you schedule a flight to/from SJC and your competitor schedules a flight connecting the same destination to/from SFO, your competitor is going to sell more seats for the same price, or the same number of seats for a higher price. For most routes, it would only make sense if you had enough demand for two flights a day, and then you can allocate one to SFO and the other to SJC and let your customers pick the one more convenient to them.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 9:06 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
San Jose (SJC) is not far from SFO which has a huge number of international flights and very competitive pricing. In theory, the area around SJC is loaded with $$ due to the Silicon Valley but those companies may be under contract with another carrier out of SFO for example and even rich folk love a bargain.


United has always said half of there 1k members live in the Bay Area.


Really? Got a source for that?


It was said by Pranav Trivedi who is the Managing Director of Corporate Real Estate & Airport Affairs at United Airlines at an event I attended in Chicago last September. If you make less than $105k a year in San Francisco you are considered to be living in poverty and SF is not even the most expensive part of the Bay Area so this stat didn't really surprise me.
 
ScottB
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 9:22 pm

mzlin wrote:
As someone who lives halfway between SFO and SJC, I use both airports. It would be great if SJC had more international flights but I can see why it struggles relative to SFO. Unless you live south of the Dumbarton Bridge (Menlo Park on the peninsula, or Fremont in the East Bay), SFO will be as convenient or more convenient than SJC. That means the majority of the Bay Area population (East Bay north of Fremont, peninsular north of Menlo Park) finds SFO more convenient. Thus if you schedule a flight to/from SJC and your competitor schedules a flight connecting the same destination to/from SFO, your competitor is going to sell more seats for the same price, or the same number of seats for a higher price. For most routes, it would only make sense if you had enough demand for two flights a day, and then you can allocate one to SFO and the other to SJC and let your customers pick the one more convenient to them.


I would imagine that the greater selection of non-stop international flights at SFO also plays a big role. With WN & AS being the two largest carriers at SJC, alliance loyalty is less important, so passengers may be more willing to drive up to SFO for non-stops.
 
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ronitkadam777
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 9:23 pm

A little off topic, any clue why the direction of take offs / landings reverse during the rains at SJC ?
 
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legacyins
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 9:30 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
legacyins wrote:
I believe CA flying their only US-PVG flight was to keep HU off the route. Yes, the flight has struggled but Chinese carriers are not know for making big profits and often keep flights as a “reaction” to another carrier.

As a side note. LH, for now, is flying SJC-FRA year round and is bookable in the W19 schedule.


That’s good news. So much for the naysayers.


Great to see LH making it work year round again! Hopefully they get a better product at SJC than the A340 soon. But with SFO going to an A340 on the SFO-FRA route the two airports should be on a more even playing field.


Not quite the same A340. LH is switching their aircraft around at SFO on their two daily flights. The A380 is going on the Munich route and the A340-600 is going on the Frankfurt route. The A340-600 is premium heavy with a first class. The SJC flight is flown by a LH Cityline A340-300 with a heavy economy section and no First Class. Also to note, UA and LH have a JV on their SFO routes with UA flying 2 daily to FRA .
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 9:49 pm

ronitkadam777 wrote:
A little off topic, any clue why the direction of take offs / landings reverse during the rains at SJC ?


Because the predominant wind direction changes. It’s the same at SEA and most airports. SJC’s runways are north/south. On nice days the wind tends to come from the north. When the weather is deteriorating the wind tends to come from the south. Same thing with SEA.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 11:30 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
ronitkadam777 wrote:
A little off topic, any clue why the direction of take offs / landings reverse during the rains at SJC ?


Because the predominant wind direction changes. It’s the same at SEA and most airports. SJC’s runways are north/south. On nice days the wind tends to come from the north. When the weather is deteriorating the wind tends to come from the south. Same thing with SEA.


Not meaning to nitpick, but the runways in the Bay Area are NW/SE. The reason for the wind shift is rain tends to be associated with a low pressure area, and the winds come in from the southeast when the low pressure area normally associated with a cold front (and rain) is passing through.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Tue May 01, 2018 11:32 pm

ScottB wrote:
mzlin wrote:
As someone who lives halfway between SFO and SJC, I use both airports. It would be great if SJC had more international flights but I can see why it struggles relative to SFO. Unless you live south of the Dumbarton Bridge (Menlo Park on the peninsula, or Fremont in the East Bay), SFO will be as convenient or more convenient than SJC. That means the majority of the Bay Area population (East Bay north of Fremont, peninsular north of Menlo Park) finds SFO more convenient. Thus if you schedule a flight to/from SJC and your competitor schedules a flight connecting the same destination to/from SFO, your competitor is going to sell more seats for the same price, or the same number of seats for a higher price. For most routes, it would only make sense if you had enough demand for two flights a day, and then you can allocate one to SFO and the other to SJC and let your customers pick the one more convenient to them.


I would imagine that the greater selection of non-stop international flights at SFO also plays a big role. With WN & AS being the two largest carriers at SJC, alliance loyalty is less important, so passengers may be more willing to drive up to SFO for non-stops.


Exactly, and that’s been the challenge for SJC for decades. My hope, which may be showing signs of happening now, is that SJC can reach a critical mass of flight options that shift enough traffic from the 800 pound gorilla airport (SFO) that will support a larger base of passengers at SJC to sustain better service.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Wed May 02, 2018 3:22 pm

AirFiero wrote:
ScottB wrote:
mzlin wrote:
As someone who lives halfway between SFO and SJC, I use both airports. It would be great if SJC had more international flights but I can see why it struggles relative to SFO. Unless you live south of the Dumbarton Bridge (Menlo Park on the peninsula, or Fremont in the East Bay), SFO will be as convenient or more convenient than SJC. That means the majority of the Bay Area population (East Bay north of Fremont, peninsular north of Menlo Park) finds SFO more convenient. Thus if you schedule a flight to/from SJC and your competitor schedules a flight connecting the same destination to/from SFO, your competitor is going to sell more seats for the same price, or the same number of seats for a higher price. For most routes, it would only make sense if you had enough demand for two flights a day, and then you can allocate one to SFO and the other to SJC and let your customers pick the one more convenient to them.


I would imagine that the greater selection of non-stop international flights at SFO also plays a big role. With WN & AS being the two largest carriers at SJC, alliance loyalty is less important, so passengers may be more willing to drive up to SFO for non-stops.


Exactly, and that’s been the challenge for SJC for decades. My hope, which may be showing signs of happening now, is that SJC can reach a critical mass of flight options that shift enough traffic from the 800 pound gorilla airport (SFO) that will support a larger base of passengers at SJC to sustain better service.


I think for SJC to really give SFO a run for its money they have to convince one of the big 3 US carriers to operate there at least on a focus city level. This would likely be American. With a big 3 US carrier and Alaska there, international carriers would be much more incentivized to go to SJC as now they would be able to pick up a decent amount of feed instead of mostly relying on O&D traffic. I honestly believe this is the key for SJC to really take things to the next level.
 
ScottB
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Wed May 02, 2018 3:53 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
I think for SJC to really give SFO a run for its money they have to convince one of the big 3 US carriers to operate there at least on a focus city level. This would likely be American. With a big 3 US carrier and Alaska there, international carriers would be much more incentivized to go to SJC as now they would be able to pick up a decent amount of feed instead of mostly relying on O&D traffic. I honestly believe this is the key for SJC to really take things to the next level.


Nah, I don't see AA trying a focus city or hub at SJC yet again. The relationship with AS has cooled dramatically and SJC just isn't a valuable enough market for AA to either try to split it with WN & AS, or try to force one of them out of the key dense markets. AA doesn't need a West Coast hub at SJC because they're already committed to one at LAX.

AirFiero wrote:
My hope, which may be showing signs of happening now, is that SJC can reach a critical mass of flight options that shift enough traffic from the 800 pound gorilla airport (SFO) that will support a larger base of passengers at SJC to sustain better service.


Yep, critical mass is the key problem. I'm just not sure the niche is large enough for most airlines to bother when the marginal value of another flight (more attractive schedule, better economies of scale) at SFO might be better.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Wed May 02, 2018 4:00 pm

ScottB wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
I think for SJC to really give SFO a run for its money they have to convince one of the big 3 US carriers to operate there at least on a focus city level. This would likely be American. With a big 3 US carrier and Alaska there, international carriers would be much more incentivized to go to SJC as now they would be able to pick up a decent amount of feed instead of mostly relying on O&D traffic. I honestly believe this is the key for SJC to really take things to the next level.


Nah, I don't see AA trying a focus city or hub at SJC yet again. The relationship with AS has cooled dramatically and SJC just isn't a valuable enough market for AA to either try to split it with WN & AS, or try to force one of them out of the key dense markets. AA doesn't need a West Coast hub at SJC because they're already committed to one at LAX (Los Angeles - USA).

AirFiero wrote:
My hope, which may be showing signs of happening now, is that SJC can reach a critical mass of flight options that shift enough traffic from the 800 pound gorilla airport (SFO) that will support a larger base of passengers at SJC to sustain better service.


Yep, critical mass is the key problem. I'm just not sure the niche is large enough for most airlines to bother when the marginal value of another flight (more attractive schedule, better economies of scale) at SFO might be better.


My comment was to say that is what I believe would need to happen at SJC for it to really reach "critical mass". I didn't say it was likely to happen though. United has a hub at SFO & LAX, Delta at SEA & LAX. Not unreasonable to assume some day if the stars align properly AA could have another West Coast hub.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Wed May 02, 2018 4:46 pm

SonaSounds wrote:
ScottB wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
I think for SJC to really give SFO a run for its money they have to convince one of the big 3 US carriers to operate there at least on a focus city level. This would likely be American. With a big 3 US carrier and Alaska there, international carriers would be much more incentivized to go to SJC as now they would be able to pick up a decent amount of feed instead of mostly relying on O&D traffic. I honestly believe this is the key for SJC to really take things to the next level.


Nah, I don't see AA trying a focus city or hub at SJC yet again. The relationship with AS has cooled dramatically and SJC just isn't a valuable enough market for AA to either try to split it with WN & AS, or try to force one of them out of the key dense markets. AA doesn't need a West Coast hub at SJC because they're already committed to one at LAX (Los Angeles - USA) (Los Angeles - USA).

AirFiero wrote:
My hope, which may be showing signs of happening now, is that SJC can reach a critical mass of flight options that shift enough traffic from the 800 pound gorilla airport (SFO) that will support a larger base of passengers at SJC to sustain better service.


Yep, critical mass is the key problem. I'm just not sure the niche is large enough for most airlines to bother when the marginal value of another flight (more attractive schedule, better economies of scale) at SFO might be better.


My comment was to say that is what I believe would need to happen at SJC for it to really reach "critical mass". I didn't say it was likely to happen though. United has a hub at SFO & LAX (Los Angeles - USA), Delta at SEA & LAX (Los Angeles - USA). Not unreasonable to assume some day if the stars align properly AA could have another West Coast hub.


I hear what you are saying. I also doubt AA would return to the regional hub idea that they’ve already tried and abandoned. Also, hubs seem to be de-emphasized in favor of focus cities and perhaps more importantly point-to-point non stops with especially regional jets.

That being said, if one or more carriers decided to take a chance on building up SJC, then that might be the thing hat creates the critical mas to break the virtual monopoly that SFO has on the Bay Area.

AS seems committed to building SJC as a focus city. Perhaps that, combined with the various international carriers who are so far taking chances and seem to be willing to stick it out with the current nonstop international flights, might do the job in absence of one of the Big 3 jumping in with a hub?

While SJC is unlikely to regain hub status with any airline, its selling points to O/D traffic are convenience and proximity. It’s pretty easy to get in and out of SJC, and there are well over a million people and many companies located closer to SJC.
 
YangFeng
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Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

Wed May 02, 2018 6:21 pm

I don't think Air China reducing PVG-SJC means SJC is struggling considering they are reducing PVG-FRA, PVG-CDG and PVG-MEL at the same time.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... y-changes/

Looks to me like Air China is struggling in Shanghai.

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