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SonaSounds
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Thu May 03, 2018 10:43 pm

evanb wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
So this is still the case then. I've worked on route forecast before for various destinations, and this issue always comes up with twin engine aircraft based in Australia. While it is approved for pretty much the rest of the world it isn't approved down there although for many years I keep hearing it is supposedly about to be approved. SAA doesn't have to follow the Australian ETOPS rules which has always put Qantas and Virgin Australia at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to route cases like this.


Well, not that any of us know for sure, but the general consensus is that it's just a matter of time. Qantas has already published draft schedules of the PER-JNB A332 route so I think the consensus is correct.


Although this article is from 2014 it does express the ETOPS concerns for JNB & Santiago from SYD: http://australianaviation.com.au/2014/0 ... or-qantas/

I know this following article is NOT for the engine options QF went with but I wonder if this will raise any concerns with the Australian government changing the ETOPS ratings for twin engine planes: http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -concerns/


If the ETOPS rating is not changed, route like SYD-DFW, SYD-JNB, and SYD-SCL would not be possible with a B789. PER-JNB might be doable with a 240min ETOPS A330 as that is about ~1600nm max range and I am not sure the plane ever gets further away than that from land given the GCR is 4,495nm. Would love to see these ETOPS limits finally lifted!

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DeltaB717
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Thu May 03, 2018 11:25 pm

The EDTO rules in Australia changed in 2015 and certainly support the possibility of such operations. Whether CASA would approve an application, we can't know until an application is made, but they have shown a level of willingness insofar as making the rule change. I think it would be unwise for CASA to take into consideration, in an application for EDTO330 for GE-engined 787s, the issues with the RR engines - the RR issue has no bearing on the GE engine, and that would be the findings of any appeal QF made against an adverse decision.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 1:25 am

evanb wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
So this is still the case then. I've worked on route forecast before for various destinations, and this issue always comes up with twin engine aircraft based in Australia. While it is approved for pretty much the rest of the world it isn't approved down there although for many years I keep hearing it is supposedly about to be approved. SAA doesn't have to follow the Australian ETOPS rules which has always put Qantas and Virgin Australia at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to route cases like this.


Well, not that any of us know for sure, but the general consensus is that it's just a matter of time. Qantas has already published draft schedules of the PER-JNB A332 route so I think the consensus is correct.

EDTO >180 is approved by CASA, the relevant CAO is in place [sometime after VA discontinued MEL-JNB]. AFAIK it is true that nobody has received such approval, I don't know if anybody has even applied. BUT CASA has approved LA operation into MEL with a twin so I assume QF/VA would get it if they comply with the relevant requirements.

Gemuser
 
evanb
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 1:31 am

Gemuser wrote:
EDTO >180 is approved by CASA, the relevant CAO is in place [sometime after VA discontinued MEL-JNB]. AFAIK it is true that nobody has received such approval, I don't know if anybody has even applied. BUT CASA has approved LA operation into MEL with a twin so I assume QF/VA would get it if they comply with the relevant requirements.


Why would CASA have to approve LA's ETOPS/EDTO status?
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 1:43 am

CASA has to approve the operation of all airlines operating into Australian airspace, this is standard as all national aviation authorities approve the operation of other countries airlines into their airspace. They are primarily checking into the airlines compliance with ICAO requirements, normally its basically a formality but Australia was very late in accepting the ETDO >180 ICAO Annex, so such operation would not have been acceptable to CASA before we did. This approval/acceptance of LA operation is the strongest indication that I have seen that CASA will eventually grant such approval to QF/VA. [If anybody remember my remember my previous posts on this subject I was EXTREMELY skeptical CASA would ever accept EDTO> 180, still not totally convinced but steps are being taken].

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777Jet
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 6:41 am

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
A completly expected order in terms of timing and number. I would expect further small incremental orders for QF and possibly JQ like this moving on.
Like all others, I will be very sad to see the 747 go, and hope that QF begin organising farewell events and flights for 2020, like KLM with the MD11 and Biman with the DC10. If they don't do it, anyone here on a.net have the time and effort to do some organisation?
Cheers,
Bunumuring


I also hope that QF will do some kind of farewell flights with the 747, like KLM did with the MD-11. A SYD-LRE day trip would be cool! Let's monitor QF social media...

I'd like to know when the last non-ER 747s will leave the QF fleet. I am assuming that the non ERs will all go first. The 744ER is the one aircraft I really want to log but I wouldn't book a QF 744 route to do so until all the non ERs are gone given my history with QF and equipment subs...

IIRC the 744 ER still operates the QF sightseeing flights to Antarctica starting from about $1200 AUD from SYD for the worst seats on the plane :D
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 3:02 pm

Strato2 wrote:
How ironic considering your history with the Superjumbo, the A400M and their respective financials. Boeing dearly needs every order it can get to get out of the hole but unfortunately even these are probably not enough.

How ironic considering you're posting this in a thread about a customer buying more 787s!

If you stand back and take a look at Boeing's financials you'll won't find anything that causes them to "dearly need every order".

Basically deferred production costs are a debt that Boeing owes to Boeing, and is one that Boeing could chose to write off any time it wants.

A400M and A380 have caused Airbus to actually take write offs.
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evanb
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 3:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
How ironic considering your history with the Superjumbo, the A400M and their respective financials. Boeing dearly needs every order it can get to get out of the hole but unfortunately even these are probably not enough.

How ironic considering you're posting this in a thread about a customer buying more 787s!

If you stand back and take a look at Boeing's financials you'll won't find anything that causes them to "dearly need every order".

Basically deferred production costs are a debt that Boeing owes to Boeing, and is one that Boeing could chose to write off any time it wants.

A400M and A380 have caused Airbus to actually take write offs.


Deferred production costs are a function of the flexibility of US GAAP which isn't available to Airbus. It's not a like-for-like comparison. Unless the most extraordinary things happen, a significant portion of that will have to be written off at some stage, like it was with the B747-8. The EU IFRS are just not quite as generous in in this regard requiring write-offs much sooner.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 4:40 pm

evanb wrote:
Deferred production costs are a function of the flexibility of US GAAP which isn't available to Airbus. It's not a like-for-like comparison. Unless the most extraordinary things happen, a significant portion of that will have to be written off at some stage, like it was with the B747-8. The EU IFRS are just not quite as generous in in this regard requiring write-offs much sooner.

Thanks for the informative post.

I agree that US GAAP allows a flexibility that is not allowed to Airbus. Clearly Airbus would use such flexibility if it was available It's definitely not a like-for-like comparison.

I disagree with the idea that unless extraordinary things happen a significant portion of 787 deferred costs will have to be written off. In fact sale of the 1400 planes in the current accounting block MUST cover the entire deferred cost and if things change such that Boeing projects it cannot sell 1400 787s then Boeing must take the loss in the next financial reporting period. And the proof was given by you: this is exactly what happened with 747-8. Boeing re-evaluated the market potential, realized it could not sell the full block count, and took the write off. So, unless you think Boeing is committing fiscal fraud, it believes it will sell all the 787s in the accounting block. And committing fiscal fraud in the US is taken very seriously. It's a lesson Volkswagen is learning the hard way.

I think it'd be extraordinary if Boeing did not sell 1400 frames. Management agrees since they just bumped the accounting block from 1300 to 1400 in December. And if they don't, it's not the end of the world. Basically they'd be writing off a debt that they owe to themselves. If they end up doing that with 787, it's clear a huge market reversal has happened and so they'd have a lot bigger problems than just the remaining 787 deferred production costs.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
aviationaware
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 4:42 pm

If anyone is interested in a more in-depth look at the comparison of US GAAP program accounting vs IFRS contract accounting, there was a great article in the CPA journal a few years ago:

https://www.cpajournal.com/2016/11/23/c ... ccounting/
 
parapente
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 4:49 pm

I'm sure it's been answered somewhere but come 2020 who will be left flying 744's?
BA on present plans - although there are clearly rumblings at IAG whether it's about more 380's or 779's.
LH I imagine? Anyone else? Must be others?
 
MooLor
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 5:22 pm

parapente wrote:
I'm sure it's been answered somewhere but come 2020 who will be left flying 744's?
BA on present plans - although there are clearly rumblings at IAG whether it's about more 380's or 779's.
LH I imagine? Anyone else? Must be others?


TG for one - as at Feb 2018 they had 10 x 744 in service and no confirmed replacement order for any type according to this article: https://blueswandaily.com/airline-insight-thai-airways-international/

TG's 12th and final A350 was just delivered this week.
 
evanb
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 7:43 pm

Revelation wrote:
I agree that US GAAP allows a flexibility that is not allowed to Airbus. Clearly Airbus would use such flexibility if it was available It's definitely not a like-for-like comparison.

I disagree with the idea that unless extraordinary things happen a significant portion of 787 deferred costs will have to be written off. In fact sale of the 1400 planes in the current accounting block MUST cover the entire deferred cost and if things change such that Boeing projects it cannot sell 1400 787s then Boeing must take the loss in the next financial reporting period. And the proof was given by you: this is exactly what happened with 747-8. Boeing re-evaluated the market potential, realized it could not sell the full block count, and took the write off. So, unless you think Boeing is committing fiscal fraud, it believes it will sell all the 787s in the accounting block. And committing fiscal fraud in the US is taken very seriously. It's a lesson Volkswagen is learning the hard way.

I think it'd be extraordinary if Boeing did not sell 1400 frames. Management agrees since they just bumped the accounting block from 1300 to 1400 in December. And if they don't, it's not the end of the world. Basically they'd be writing off a debt that they owe to themselves. If they end up doing that with 787, it's clear a huge market reversal has happened and so they'd have a lot bigger problems than just the remaining 787 deferred production costs.


Of course Boeing are not committing a fiscal fraud, nor am I suggesting that Boeing is doing anything "clever". They are purely reporting the way their regulatory requirements require them to and that just happens to be different to Airbus. It means that it's not the same to compare Airbus's A380 write-downs and Boeing's lack of B787 write-downs.

That said, Boeing were able to reduce the deferred B787 production costs by about $2 billion between Q1 2017 and Q1 2018. At the current rate, it'll take another 12 years to reduce it through production of B787s. The current order backlog is about 650 (give or take several aircraft). At a production rate of 136 aircraft per year that's about 5 years worth of production. So yes, it's still a long way to go before Boeing can be comfortable that they won't have to write any of it off. Obviously this can change through at least 7 years of orders at current production levels, or other extraordinary things.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 8:52 pm

evanb wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I agree that US GAAP allows a flexibility that is not allowed to Airbus. Clearly Airbus would use such flexibility if it was available It's definitely not a like-for-like comparison.

I disagree with the idea that unless extraordinary things happen a significant portion of 787 deferred costs will have to be written off. In fact sale of the 1400 planes in the current accounting block MUST cover the entire deferred cost and if things change such that Boeing projects it cannot sell 1400 787s then Boeing must take the loss in the next financial reporting period. And the proof was given by you: this is exactly what happened with 747-8. Boeing re-evaluated the market potential, realized it could not sell the full block count, and took the write off. So, unless you think Boeing is committing fiscal fraud, it believes it will sell all the 787s in the accounting block. And committing fiscal fraud in the US is taken very seriously. It's a lesson Volkswagen is learning the hard way.

I think it'd be extraordinary if Boeing did not sell 1400 frames. Management agrees since they just bumped the accounting block from 1300 to 1400 in December. And if they don't, it's not the end of the world. Basically they'd be writing off a debt that they owe to themselves. If they end up doing that with 787, it's clear a huge market reversal has happened and so they'd have a lot bigger problems than just the remaining 787 deferred production costs.


Of course Boeing are not committing a fiscal fraud, nor am I suggesting that Boeing is doing anything "clever". They are purely reporting the way their regulatory requirements require them to and that just happens to be different to Airbus. It means that it's not the same to compare Airbus's A380 write-downs and Boeing's lack of B787 write-downs.

That said, Boeing were able to reduce the deferred B787 production costs by about $2 billion between Q1 2017 and Q1 2018. At the current rate, it'll take another 12 years to reduce it through production of B787s. The current order backlog is about 650 (give or take several aircraft). At a production rate of 136 aircraft per year that's about 5 years worth of production. So yes, it's still a long way to go before Boeing can be comfortable that they won't have to write any of it off. Obviously this can change through at least 7 years of orders at current production levels, or other extraordinary things.


You can’t look at it that way. As greater efficiencies are achieved virtually every aircraft produced cost less to build than the one before it. Therefore even with equal production (which is actually going up anyway) the amount of deferred cost that is written down goes up every year.
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jbs2886
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 9:26 pm

Can we not have 787 deferred costs debates in EVERY 787 order thread?
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 9:57 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Can we not have 787 deferred costs debates in EVERY 787 order thread?


I second the motion.

Both A with the 380 and B with the 787 spent a lot more than they expected. That spending is now in the past with the stock markets having adjusted to address it, so the debate has basically nothing to do with the thread under discussion.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 11:30 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Can we not have 787 deferred costs debates in EVERY 787 order thread?

I wish. For those costs have nothing to do with Boeing's incentive to sell 787s.

Every time I read a post I think " you don't get sunk costs or cash flow accounting.".

What should be discussed is yet another airline has set 747 pax retirement! The 747 is becoming a rare bird. Soon A380s will be more common at LAX than 747s. Whoa!

We should also be talking about how the 787 blew past range and payload at range promises. We should be celebrating the good number of 787 wins.

Perhaps a side discussion with A350 needing earlier available delivery slots to compete. We certainly should be talking about when Airbus will bring down A350 production costs. (A330NEO doesn't apply on QF typical missions).

But instead we have differed cost discussion instead if Boeing's real accounting issue:. Too much free cash. If Boeing writes off the costs, they won't be paying taxes for years and that scares the IRS.

Every 787 going out the door generates a nice cash flow. Under EU accounting Boeing would have paid much less in taxes before (expensive money) and more in future taxes (cheap money). This isn't a certain aspirational car company that might run out of cash after a quarterly conference call roasting the directors of capital. This is a company vertically integrating by buying vendors as that is the best ROI for the cash flow.

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ER757
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Fri May 04, 2018 11:42 pm

parapente wrote:
I'm sure it's been answered somewhere but come 2020 who will be left flying 744's?
BA on present plans - although there are clearly rumblings at IAG whether it's about more 380's or 779's.
LH I imagine? Anyone else? Must be others?

KE? Don't they still have some pax 744's?
 
PlaneBoo
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 2:54 am

parapente wrote:
I'm sure it's been answered somewhere but come 2020 who will be left flying 744's?
BA on present plans - although there are clearly rumblings at IAG whether it's about more 380's or 779's.
LH I imagine? Anyone else? Must be others?


Rossiya looks to be keeping ahold of theirs for a while too
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 3:37 am

777Jet wrote:
I'd like to know when the last non-ER 747s will leave the QF fleet. I am assuming that the non ERs will all go first. The 744ER is the one aircraft I really want to log but I wouldn't book a QF 744 route to do so until all the non ERs are gone given my history with QF and equipment subs...


I wondered the same. I'm planning to fly Qantas from HKG this year in the hope it's a 744ER and not a non-ER..but i wasn't sure if i should hold off until next year or so.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 3:47 am

I must say the 744ER with the 777 interior was my fav aircraft to fly on in all cabins. Can’t beat A-Zone when it was first or business later with that ceiling architecture.

Interesting to see such a premium focus on the 789- I wonder if this is the new QF longhaul niche due to their cost structure - far less economy focus, leaving that to JQ- except 3280 trunk routes. I suppose in the next economic cycle they can reconfigure them.

Other significant factor will be the AA JV - and what this holds for the US network.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 3:49 am

Won't be good for the customers to be crammed into a 787. More narrow seats, narrow aisles, and less space.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 4:53 am

Ziyulu wrote:
Won't be good for the customers to be crammed into a 787. More narrow seats, narrow aisles, and less space.


This horse you and others keep attempting to beat is long dead, the general public probably think the 787 is best aircraft that they have been on. The seat width is so overblown on this website it’s not even funny. If it was such an issue this aircraft wouldn’t be selling like it is and passengers wouldn’t like it as much as they do.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 9:23 am

Ziyulu wrote:
Won't be good for the customers to be crammed into a 787. More narrow seats, narrow aisles, and less space.


Seat width on a 9 abrest 787 and 10 abrest 747 is almost identical. This trolling is getting so old.
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DL757NYC
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 10:18 am

Any chance of a 747-8 order?
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 10:24 am

DL757NYC wrote:
Any chance of a 747-8 order?


No the future is twins with QF
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Ziyulu
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 10:54 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Won't be good for the customers to be crammed into a 787. More narrow seats, narrow aisles, and less space.


Seat width on a 9 abrest 787 and 10 abrest 747 is almost identical. This trolling is getting so old.


Yes, but on a 787, the aisles are more narrow. In addition, if you are in a window seat, you have less headroom due to the curvature of the plane. I flew last month on a 747-8 from CA, and it was a very comfortable flight. A lot better than the 787 on HU last year.
 
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Boair
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sat May 05, 2018 4:00 pm

parapente wrote:
I'm sure it's been answered somewhere but come 2020 who will be left flying 744's?
BA on present plans - although there are clearly rumblings at IAG whether it's about more 380's or 779's.
LH I imagine? Anyone else? Must be others?

LH,BA,KL,SS,VS and probably Rossiya, Thai, Wamos and Royal Air Maroc
A313 A318 A319 A320 A321 A21N A330 A343 A380 B734 B73H B738 B744 B752 B763 B77E B77W B788 B789 AT72 DH8D MD88 E145 E175 E190 IL96 F100 PC6 PA28
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sun May 06, 2018 10:52 pm

Qantas is going to replace its 10 Boeing 747-400 / 400ER with 14 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners but there is a considerable loss of capacity which will be the strategy of Qantas?
The Boeing 747 comply with the following routes
SYD-SFO / JNB / HKG / SCL / HND / YVR
BNE-LAX, LAX-JFK

On the Brisbane - Los Angeles Route, it slightly increases its capacity of 7 weekly flights with B744 increases with 11 weekly flights using the B789, with respect to the LAX-JFK route the boeing 747-400 offered much capacity is better the replacement with the Boeing 787-9

but what will happen with the other routes? some are in high demand and the Boieng 787-9 are very small, after the replacement of the route MEL-DXB-LHR with Airbus A380-800 to MEL-PER-LHR with Boeing 787-9 and Qantas released some A380s, and one of them operates the route Singapore - Melbourne, SYD-HKG can be replaced with an A380 that has still Qantas available

SYD-SCL the boeing 787-9 can easily replace the Boeing 747-400, and instead of 4 weekly flights this route can be daily or maybe they work 4 weekly flights to SCL and return to Buenos Aires (EZE) with 3 weekly flights

SYD-JNB and SYD-HND, the SYD-DFW route is operated with an Airbus A380-800 with the arrival of the Dreamliners this route can be worked SYD-DFW and MEL-DFW leaving the A380s free to be used in the routes JNB-SYD and HND-SYD, another serious strategy in the case of Japan that the KIX-SYD route increases to daily flights with the Boeing 787-9 and maintain two daily flights to Japan with HND-SYD and KIX-SYD both with the B789, as it would be in the case of South Africa Dreamliners can be employed on routes JNB-SYD and CPT-SYD, Cape Town can work with 4 or 3 daily flights

SYD-SFO in the last years this route has increased a lot its demand can the A388 replace the B744, but with the inauguration of the route MEL-SFO, it is possible to work with daily flights both routes MEL-SFO and SYD-SFO using both Boeing 787-9, and in the future add BNE-SFO with Boeing 787-9 with 3 or 4 weekly flights

SYD-YVR the Boeing 787-9 for this route is great can help Qantas to maintain this route throughout the year instead of season

But I consider that a future Qantas needs to add more Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners, I am also curious if the JetStar Boieng 787-8 will be replaced by the Airbus A321NEO and these B788 will be added to the Qantas fleet which would help Qantas to maintain a super efficient fleet and expand new routes
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
cpd
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sun May 06, 2018 11:03 pm

KICT wrote:
Perhaps BA could pick up these -400ERs?


They'd be orphans in the BA fleet as they are all General Electric engines. The BA ones are all Rolls Royce engined.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sun May 06, 2018 11:09 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Won't be good for the customers to be crammed into a 787. More narrow seats, narrow aisles, and less space.


This horse you and others keep attempting to beat is long dead, the general public probably think the 787 is best aircraft that they have been on...


Unless they have used any other aircraft, of course.
You should get better sources for such statements, or talk to more passengers. The 787 with the most common configuration is by far one of the worst Y experiences in the last decades.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Sun May 06, 2018 11:49 pm

Jayafe wrote:
. The 787 with the most common configuration is by far one of the worst Y experiences in the last decades.

Not tried the 330 in 9 across then ??
(AirAsiaX, Cebu Pacific).
The 330 is quite a bit narrower than the 787.

And something like 35% of 330neo orders are in 9ab
 
MooLor
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Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Mon May 07, 2018 12:31 am

moa999 wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
. The 787 with the most common configuration is by far one of the worst Y experiences in the last decades.

Not tried the 330 in 9 across then ??
(AirAsiaX, Cebu Pacific).
The 330 is quite a bit narrower than the 787.

And something like 35% of 330neo orders are in 9ab


Seriously?

I wasn't going to buy into this circular argument, especially not in this thread. The jury has delivered it's verdict: B787 @ nine abreast have accountants wetting themselves; Y passengers mostly shop on price. Well played Boeing, and I appreciate the effort to go "comfort" Airbus, but it seems to be failing.

But your nine abreast argument? Apples and oranges. AirAsiaX & Cebu Pacific are LCCs. And I'm guessing AirAsiaX have 35% of the A330NEO orders.

To be fair, how many full service carriers have A330 @ 9ab? How many full service carriers have B787 @ 9ab?
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Mon May 07, 2018 1:49 am

Jayafe wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Won't be good for the customers to be crammed into a 787. More narrow seats, narrow aisles, and less space.


This horse you and others keep attempting to beat is long dead, the general public probably think the 787 is best aircraft that they have been on...


Unless they have used any other aircraft, of course.
You should get better sources for such statements, or talk to more passengers. The 787 with the most common configuration is by far one of the worst Y experiences in the last decades.

IMHO the B787 in 9 abreast is better than a B77W in 10 abreast! Neither is as good as a B747 in 10 abreast or an A330/340 in 8 abreast!

Gemuser
 
Pcoder
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:44 am

Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Mon May 07, 2018 2:08 am

As they let one of the cheap options expire, I'd imagine there won't be another dreamliner order for a couple of years.

I'm going to predict that as long as the a359ulr can take the around 300 pax and luggage to London, there will be no chance they will order the 777-8.

Recent quotes in the media about qantas looking at the cargo hold (With airbus putting out press releases at the same time). A flexible aircraft that they could deploy on long haul and regular routes like Hong Kong and when the a35k come to Australia they filled it with Qantas engineers. With the a350ulr test flights happening now, this should give them real data to make a more solid choice.

Another big issue with the 777-8 is resale value, with only the ME3 ordering it, it does create an issue for qantas if the proposed routes are not as successful, it would be a bit harder to get rid of then an a350
 
User avatar
qf2220
Posts: 1974
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Mon May 07, 2018 2:52 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Qantas is going to replace its 10 Boeing 747-400 / 400ER with 14 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners but there is a considerable loss of capacity which will be the strategy of Qantas?
The Boeing 747 comply with the following routes
SYD-SFO / JNB / HKG / SCL / HND / YVR
BNE-LAX, LAX-JFK

......

But I consider that a future Qantas needs to add more Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners, I am also curious if the JetStar Boieng 787-8 will be replaced by the Airbus A321NEO and these B788 will be added to the Qantas fleet which would help Qantas to maintain a super efficient fleet and expand new routes


What this analysis assumes is that the current order is all that there is, and concludes they need more. QF probably are going to order more, and have that factored into the fleet/route plan but havent yet ordered them as they dont need to just yet.
 
qwertytam
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:52 am

Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:45 pm

Qantas currently offers the ability to experience a full motion B747 simulator at their Sydney base. Is there any indication yet on when that will end?
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3513
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

Re: Qantas orders additional 787s, sets 747 retirement date

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:08 pm

Pcoder wrote:
As they let one of the cheap options expire, I'd imagine there won't be another dreamliner order for a couple of years.

I'm going to predict that as long as the a359ulr can take the around 300 pax and luggage to London, there will be no chance they will order the 777-8.

Recent quotes in the media about qantas looking at the cargo hold (With airbus putting out press releases at the same time). A flexible aircraft that they could deploy on long haul and regular routes like Hong Kong and when the a35k come to Australia they filled it with Qantas engineers. With the a350ulr test flights happening now, this should give them real data to make a more solid choice.

Another big issue with the 777-8 is resale value, with only the ME3 ordering it, it does create an issue for qantas if the proposed routes are not as successful, it would be a bit harder to get rid of then an a350


I'm going to predict that neither the A350ULR nor the 777-8 will deliver what Qantas wants in their current or proposed forms so QF will keep working with both manufacturers.

qf2220 wrote:
What this analysis assumes is that the current order is all that there is, and concludes they need more. QF probably are going to order more, and have that factored into the fleet/route plan but havent yet ordered them as they dont need to just yet.


We also have an insight into what QF will do in places like JNB where a seasonal PER-JNB can be done on an A332 to pick up peak demand. SCL and HKG can both handle seasonal A380 service while to Tokyo, QF can always go back onto SYD-NRT or put JQ onto SYD-NRT to dump up capacity at the back end while the 789 goes into HND. So I don't think you'll find an overall drop in capacity for any of these routes but you will see more seasonal moves to shift capacity around.

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