chicawgo
Posts: 320
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:19 pm

102IAHexpress wrote:
I think it does matter. Generally speaking a lower supply of inhabitants in a city demands less air service. Inspite of chicagos “awesomeness” there was just not enough demand for all the air service to Asia.
There are lots of explanations for this but the bottom line is, for the reasons posted above people are moving out of chicago. That doesnt bode well for any chicago industry including airlines.


This again shows you're not understanding the context. Have you read any of the above posts discussing the DEMOGRAPHIC of people leaving Chicagoland? It's retirees and low-income minorities. They don't have an effect on air service.

Does international pax up 10% YTD mean anything to you? How about overall traffic up 4.5% YTD? How about that AA just built a concourse addition?

"But the Mexican food sucks"... I know, I know.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:29 pm

chicawgo wrote:
102IAHexpress wrote:
I think it does matter. Generally speaking a lower supply of inhabitants in a city demands less air service. Inspite of chicagos “awesomeness” there was just not enough demand for all the air service to Asia.
There are lots of explanations for this but the bottom line is, for the reasons posted above people are moving out of chicago. That doesnt bode well for any chicago industry including airlines.


This again shows you're not understanding the context. Have you read any of the above posts discussing the DEMOGRAPHIC of people leaving Chicagoland? It's retirees and low-income minorities. They don't have an effect on air service.

Does international pax up 10% YTD mean anything to you? How about overall traffic up 4.5% YTD? How about that AA just built a concourse addition?

"But the Mexican food sucks"... I know, I know.


It would be one thing if it actually did, but the Mexican food in Chicago absolutely does not suck.
Next flight: IAH-NRT-IAH on NH in J
 
jfk777
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:46 am

Not surprising they are dropping Shanghai with Peking but Tokyo only three times a week stinks. Tokyo should be daily or at least 5 times weekly.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:55 am

bostonvancouver wrote:
what's the chance of DoT granting route dormancy?

Depends. If no one requests the frequencies AA/HA are requesting dormancy for then its about 99% likely the DOT will grant at areas ta 6 month dormancy.

If those frequencies are requested by DL or UA (the only real options) then AA/HA will have a choice, release the frequencies for the route proceeding or continue to fly them as they are. I don't recall a time the DOT granted dormancy to China when other carriers requested the frequency.

I personally don't see DL/UA adding 3 new daily flights to China in this market. Maybe LAX-PEK for DL and something, IAD-PVG, IAH-China) from United but the fact is no one is doing great to China and taking some capacity out of the market is good for all three US airlines. The question is how badly does Delta think it will want to operate something like LAX-PEK in the future and is it worth it to take on losses now for the chance of something profitable later.

Also for Delta, widebodies are going to be tight next year with all the new additions added today. That plus the soon to come India flight makes it unlikely Delta could really add much to China. They might be able to work a LAX-PEK rotation with the 359 or 777 but I am not sure they could do anything else (ie ATL-PEK or JFK-China).

adtall wrote:
As far as unrestricted frequencies go, DL does have 21, not 14, same as UA (DL's were a legacy from NW, as UA's were from PA back when the China bilateral was very restrictive). I believe the third set are on SEA-PVG. As for UA, I recall their third set as making up one of the ORD-China routes but not sure which.

Are you sure about this?

Unless Delta released restricted frequencies when they cut NRT-PEK a while back I thought they gave the DOT back the unrestricted frequencies from NRT-PEK.
not saying your wrong and I personally hoped Delta was smart enough to shift things around so that they kept the 21 unrestricted frequencies but that isn't my understand of what happened.

NRT-CAN is now SEA-PEK and NRT-PVG is now ATL-PVG for those that don't know.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:52 am

I wish the thread could get back on topic, Chicago is obviously thriving based on the number of new construction going forth. O'hare growth is still up this year.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:42 am

The fact that American cannot make ORD-NRT work illustrates the lost opportunities that a stronger, tighter network integration with Japan Airlines, a oneworld alliance member, would help achieve. AA and JL are not at the level of what UA has with NH and that is the problem.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

True partnerships, JV especially are huge. It also points to the historic nature of international routes. It literally takes 20+ years and hundreds of millions to develop successful markets in new regions for airliners. In fact the most successful markets the Big 3 fly from the US all where developed by other long gone carries we are talking decades of work.. Throw on top of that, too much capacity and high fuel prices a retreat is not surprising at all. The only surprise is that it took this long.
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:38 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
The fact that American cannot make ORD-NRT work illustrates the lost opportunities that a stronger, tighter network integration with Japan Airlines, a oneworld alliance member, would help achieve. AA and JL are not at the level of what UA has with NH and that is the problem.


But why is that given aa is a superior carrier to ua?
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:55 pm

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
The fact that American cannot make ORD-NRT work illustrates the lost opportunities that a stronger, tighter network integration with Japan Airlines, a oneworld alliance member, would help achieve. AA and JL are not at the level of what UA has with NH and that is the problem.


But why is that given aa is a superior carrier to ua?


Is AA superior? I cant tell a major difference between the two.
Next flight: IAH-NRT-IAH on NH in J
 
winginit
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:56 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
The fact that American cannot make ORD-NRT work illustrates the lost opportunities that a stronger, tighter network integration with Japan Airlines, a oneworld alliance member, would help achieve. AA and JL are not at the level of what UA has with NH and that is the problem.


Elaborate on that. I don't disagree but how can AA and JL become more tightly linked? What is it that UA and NH are doing better on the joint venture front?
 
Cointrin330
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:48 am

winginit wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
The fact that American cannot make ORD-NRT work illustrates the lost opportunities that a stronger, tighter network integration with Japan Airlines, a oneworld alliance member, would help achieve. AA and JL are not at the level of what UA has with NH and that is the problem.


Elaborate on that. I don't disagree but how can AA and JL become more tightly linked? What is it that UA and NH are doing better on the joint venture front?


UA and NH have something similar to Atlantic ++ and UA code shares on many markets with NH ex-NRT. So, it can flow more traffic on its US originating flights to points beyond Japan. The code share with NH has effectively replaced UA's own service on its own metal from what was the NRT hub to points beyond in Asia. AA and JL have code shares in place but are not as extensive. They don't jointly market and it seems fairly limited. AA should be able to fill a 787-8 from ORD to NRT.
 
notconcerned
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:02 am

winginit wrote:
Elaborate on that. I don't disagree but how can AA and JL become more tightly linked? What is it that UA and NH are doing better on the joint venture front?


I guess feed might be one factor, considering AA/JL only flies from JFK, ORD, LAX, DFW to TYO. Hubs such as MIA, CLT, PHL are not providing additional feed, though one can argue that the other 4 hubs can cover the majority of the country. But if you compare to UA/NH, they have flights from EWR, ORD, IAD, IAH, DEN, SFO, LAX to TYO giving passengers more flight options.

AA/JL also generally fly smaller aircraft. DFW: AA772 and JL789 (~470 seats) vs. IAH: UA772 and NH77W (~550 seats), or LAX: AA789x2 JL77W (~814 seats) vs. NH77Wx3 UA789 (~888 seats)
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:19 am

notconcerned wrote:
winginit wrote:
Elaborate on that. I don't disagree but how can AA and JL become more tightly linked? What is it that UA and NH are doing better on the joint venture front?


I guess feed might be one factor, considering AA/JL only flies from JFK, ORD, LAX, DFW to TYO. Hubs such as MIA, CLT, PHL are not providing additional feed, though one can argue that the other 4 hubs can cover the majority of the country. But if you compare to UA/NH, they have flights from EWR, ORD, IAD, IAH, DEN, SFO, LAX to TYO giving passengers more flight options.

AA/JL also generally fly smaller aircraft. DFW: AA772 and JL789 (~470 seats) vs. IAH: UA772 and NH77W (~550 seats), or LAX: AA789x2 JL77W (~814 seats) vs. NH77Wx3 UA789 (~888 seats)


AA flies DFW-NRT twice daily not once.
Next flight: IAH-NRT-IAH on NH in J
 
notconcerned
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:32 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
AA flies DFW-NRT twice daily not once.


Thanks, was not aware of that. That would put AA/JL more dominant in Texas, but weaker in LAX, ORD, NYC area.
 
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qf789
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:05 am

Please stay on topic and keep it related to aviation otherwise the thread will be locked. For those who wish to discuss other things other than aviation please discuss it in Non-Aviation
Forum Moderator
 
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janders
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:43 pm

At investor event today Isom says the cut ORD-China flying was generating $30mil in annual losses!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 0c137a5017
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
PHLspecial
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:01 am

mikejepp wrote:
Any chance some of these China frequencies could be moved to JFK or PHL?


As much I am biased towards PHL, no shot. JFK is a small chance but would AA move some 787 eventually to NYC?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:07 am

I think the most profitable route to China from the US is held by Delta via ICN and it's Korean air partner. Great transfer airport in a good location. Delta has really worked to improve that relationship for a reason
 
727200
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:18 am

$30M a year lost? That means they averaged over $85,000 a day in losses.

No wonder they decided to bail.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:23 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I think the most profitable route to China from the US is held by Delta via ICN and it's Korean air partner. Great transfer airport in a good location. Delta has really worked to improve that relationship for a reason

I thought china flights were not part of the JV?
 
tphuang
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:34 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I think the most profitable route to China from the US is held by Delta via ICN and it's Korean air partner. Great transfer airport in a good location. Delta has really worked to improve that relationship for a reason

not a chance. If direct flight is so low yielding, why would flights through ICN be higher yielding? Doesn't make any sense. Chinese expat community on average prefer Chinese carriers over American ones. That's a huge part of the traffic.
 
jfk777
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:34 am

notconcerned wrote:
winginit wrote:
Elaborate on that. I don't disagree but how can AA and JL become more tightly linked? What is it that UA and NH are doing better on the joint venture front?


I guess feed might be one factor, considering AA/JL only flies from JFK, ORD, LAX, DFW to TYO. Hubs such as MIA, CLT, PHL are not providing additional feed, though one can argue that the other 4 hubs can cover the majority of the country. But if you compare to UA/NH, they have flights from EWR, ORD, IAD, IAH, DEN, SFO, LAX to TYO giving passengers more flight options.

AA/JL also generally fly smaller aircraft. DFW: AA772 and JL789 (~470 seats) vs. IAH: UA772 and NH77W (~550 seats), or LAX: AA789x2 JL77W (~814 seats) vs. NH77Wx3 UA789 (~888 seats)


JAL flies from SFO to Handa plus Boston and San Diego to Narita as well. The three US cities ANA/UA fly to Tokyo with no competition are all United hubs: Dulles, Houston and Denver. AA has three east cost hubs chomping at the bit for a flight to Tokyo: MIA, CLT & PHL. Lets hope AA/JAL sees more of Tokyo.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:04 am

American FFers (by this I mean folks based in the U.S., be they loyal to AA, DL or UA) headed to Asia aren't stupid. These days, a quick google search lets even the occasional traveler know that Asian carriers offer *far* better service than their American counterparts. I grew up in Chicago, and know plenty of people that went well out of their way to enjoy SQ rather than fly UA. Even my Chicagoan friend who is for reasons I cannot understand fiercely loyal to AA admits he would much rather head to Asia on CX or JL than AA itself. It's hardly surprising to see AA hand almost all of its ORD transpacific ops over to its partners. That is, in essence, exactly what the AA FFers want. Europe is a different story, and as such I'm not surprised to see AA growing there. Latin America also has a much more level playing field... I can't help but wonder if AA should try winter seasonal niche routes like ORD-EZE/GIG. Seems like it could be a good use of resources that might do ORD transatlantic in the summer months...
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
HPAEAA
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:21 am

727200 wrote:
$30M a year lost? That means they averaged over $85,000 a day in losses.

No wonder they decided to bail.

Actually, that seems pretty small to me, assuming the 30 million is accross 3 flights, that’s about 28k total... if they’re measuring outbound and return that’s about 14k per flight which is only 3 biz seats to break even, without the fuel increases they might have been running at break even....

Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions
1.4mm and counting...
 
c933103
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:30 am

HPAEAA wrote:
727200 wrote:
$30M a year lost? That means they averaged over $85,000 a day in losses.

No wonder they decided to bail.

Actually, that seems pretty small to me, assuming the 30 million is accross 3 flights, that’s about 28k total... if they’re measuring outbound and return that’s about 14k per flight which is only 3 biz seats to break even, without the fuel increases they might have been running at break even....

Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions

Only if they can be filled with full fare passengers then what you're calculating would be possible
 
jumbojet
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:35 am

HPAEAA wrote:
[Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions


on the 788 or 789? The 788 only has 28 J seats as it is so....
 
usflyer msp
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:45 am

HPAEAA wrote:
727200 wrote:
$30M a year lost? That means they averaged over $85,000 a day in losses.

No wonder they decided to bail.

Actually, that seems pretty small to me, assuming the 30 million is accross 3 flights, that’s about 28k total... if they’re measuring outbound and return that’s about 14k per flight which is only 3 biz seats to break even, without the fuel increases they might have been running at break even....

Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions


There are only two ORD-China flights and they are less than daily most of the year.
 
Austin787
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:50 am

jumbojet wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
[Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions


on the 788 or 789? The 788 only has 28 J seats as it is so....

The 788 will go from 28J seats to 20J seats when PE is installed. The 789 has 30J seats and PE.

Whether reducing J on the 788 is the right move depends on 2 things:
1) How often do they sell more than 20J seats on 788 flights
2) How much impact premium economy would have on J sales
 
HPAEAA
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:00 am

jumbojet wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
[Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions


on the 788 or 789? The 788 only has 28 J seats as it is so....

788 which operates on these routes.. with the retrofit, j seat are expected top drop to either 24 or 20 (haven’t seen the final config) which is a pretty low count compared to other carriers. Even the 789 has a pretty small J cabin compare to other airlines operating long haul flying.
1.4mm and counting...
 
jumbojet
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:13 am

HPAEAA wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
[Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions


on the 788 or 789? The 788 only has 28 J seats as it is so....

788 which operates on these routes.. with the retrofit, j seat are expected top drop to either 24 or 20 (haven’t seen the final config) which is a pretty low count compared to other carriers. Even the 789 has a pretty small J cabin compare to other airlines operating long haul flying.


Just found an article on it and hard to believe but its actually dropping down to 19 since AA blocks a J seat for crew rest on flights longer than 8 hours. Forget about elites trying to use upgrade certs to get into Business class. And I thought DL was bad with 28 on the refurbished 777s
 
HPAEAA
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:35 am

jumbojet wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
jumbojet wrote:

on the 788 or 789? The 788 only has 28 J seats as it is so....

788 which operates on these routes.. with the retrofit, j seat are expected top drop to either 24 or 20 (haven’t seen the final config) which is a pretty low count compared to other carriers. Even the 789 has a pretty small J cabin compare to other airlines operating long haul flying.


Just found an article on it and hard to believe but its actually dropping down to 19 since AA blocks a J seat for crew rest on flights longer than 8 hours. Forget about elites trying to use upgrade certs to get into Business class. And I thought DL was bad with 28 on the refurbished 777s

Seriously... even on the 77w dfw to HKG I’m usually on the airport standby list as an ex plat when upgrading. Admittedly CX and JAL have better Products in J and premium economy but I can’t believe that AA can’t match the revenue per sq ft between Y and J... I typically won’t pay 7k for NYC to HKG on CX but for 4-5 k on AA, it’s a reasonable alternative to coach...
1.4mm and counting...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:06 am

jfk777 wrote:
Tokyo should be daily or at least 5 times weekly.

Based on what?


Cointrin330 wrote:
The fact that American cannot make ORD-NRT work illustrates the lost opportunities that a stronger, tighter network integration with Japan Airlines, a oneworld alliance member, would help achieve. AA and JL are not at the level of what UA has with NH and that is the problem.

You'd need more facts in order to arrive at a conclusion like the above.

In the absence of such, the argument can just as easily be made that BECAUSE of AA/JL's integration, AA can sustain dropping this flight without losing significant clientele or revenue streams. Thus, who's to say which reflects more the situation more accurately?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Yossarian22
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:49 pm

HPAEAA wrote:
727200 wrote:
$30M a year lost? That means they averaged over $85,000 a day in losses.

No wonder they decided to bail.

Actually, that seems pretty small to me, assuming the 30 million is accross 3 flights, that’s about 28k total... if they’re measuring outbound and return that’s about 14k per flight which is only 3 biz seats to break even, without the fuel increases they might have been running at break even....

Over all this kind of leaves me wondering what they’re doing by shrinking the J cabin on the 787s, is this really going to pay off long term for any of their long haul flying or if we’re going to see further reductions


Playing around on Skyscanner, checking random dates and a one way business class ticket PEK>ORD on HU costs about $2500, $3000 on UA. I’m guessing AA tried to squeeze everyway possible, but it was just a turnip.

Those are routes they have run for years, I don’t think AA took cancelling them lightly.
 
727200
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:55 pm

Does AA allow for cert UGs into "J" on international flights?
I've never seen the logic in carriers that do. They are giving away their most expensive product for free. Basic Econ 101, limit your seats, increase revenue.
 
HPAEAA
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:22 pm

727200 wrote:
Does AA allow for cert UGs into "J" on international flights?
I've never seen the logic in carriers that do. They are giving away their most expensive product for free. Basic Econ 101, limit your seats, increase revenue.

Yes, but it’s not the same as domestic upgrades, there are two options:
1. executive platinum and concierge key customers get 4 one way system wide upgrades per year that can be used to upgrade one class of service (from coach to busines) on any AA operated flight as a reward (domestic upgrades are unlimited).
2. AAdvantage members can upgrade using miles, it used to be something like 20k miles and a 300 dollar copay (haven’t done it in several years)

Neither option is free really, and speaking from experience over the past few years, option 1 has become increasingly difficult.
1.4mm and counting...
 
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Rookie87
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:52 am

HPAEAA wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
788 which operates on these routes.. with the retrofit, j seat are expected top drop to either 24 or 20 (haven’t seen the final config) which is a pretty low count compared to other carriers. Even the 789 has a pretty small J cabin compare to other airlines operating long haul flying.


Just found an article on it and hard to believe but its actually dropping down to 19 since AA blocks a J seat for crew rest on flights longer than 8 hours. Forget about elites trying to use upgrade certs to get into Business class. And I thought DL was bad with 28 on the refurbished 777s

Seriously... even on the 77w dfw to HKG I’m usually on the airport standby list as an ex plat when upgrading. Admittedly CX and JAL have better Products in J and premium economy but I can’t believe that AA can’t match the revenue per sq ft between Y and J... I typically won’t pay 7k for NYC to HKG on CX but for 4-5 k on AA, it’s a reasonable alternative to coach...


Here i thought AA had the same J seat as CX.
 
MAH4546
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:18 am

Rookie87 wrote:

Here i thought AA had the same J seat as CX.


The AA 77W and Cathay have the same seat, that is correct. Although AA has many different J seats.
a.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:29 am

LAX772LR wrote:
You'd need more facts in order to arrive at a conclusion like the above.

In the absence of such, the argument can just as easily be made that BECAUSE of AA/JL's integration, AA can sustain dropping this flight without losing significant clientele or revenue streams. Thus, who's to say which reflects more the situation more accurately?


I'd say the fact that UA/NH is 3x daily 77W/772 on ORD-TYO and AA/JL will be soon be 10x weekly 77W/788 is plenty of "facts" to support that notion. Think of it another way. Is there any way to argue the opposite with facts? No. Your rebuttal is without merit and only contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.
 
DFWAviator76
Posts: 72
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:10 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:50 am

HPAEAA wrote:
727200 wrote:
Does AA allow for cert UGs into "J" on international flights?
I've never seen the logic in carriers that do. They are giving away their most expensive product for free. Basic Econ 101, limit your seats, increase revenue.

Yes, but it’s not the same as domestic upgrades, there are two options:
1. executive platinum and concierge key customers get 4 one way system wide upgrades per year that can be used to upgrade one class of service (from coach to busines) on any AA operated flight as a reward (domestic upgrades are unlimited).
2. AAdvantage members can upgrade using miles, it used to be something like 20k miles and a 300 dollar copay (haven’t done it in several years)

Neither option is free really, and speaking from experience over the past few years, option 1 has become increasingly difficult.


Option 2 isn't easy, either. Depends on the route and schedule, of course, but I've never been able to upgrade with miles. Usually you're better off trying to find a MilesAAver ticket for J class.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 11234
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:06 am

MSPNWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Thus, who's to say which reflects more the situation more accurately?

I'd say the fact that UA/NH is 3x daily 77W/772 on ORD-TYO and AA/JL will be soon be 10x weekly 77W/788 is plenty of "facts" to support that notion.

With the obvious fallacy being in the first two words. :razz:

So let's see...

YOU don't know the comparative cost basis between the two different groups on this, or any, US-Asia routing.
YOU don't know the comparative revenue targets between the two groups on this, or any, US-Asia routing.
YOU don't know the mix of O&D vs revenue targets between the two groups on this, or any, US-Asia routing.
YOU don't know the opportunity costs specific to each individual airline relative to the opposing group.
and most glaringly of all: YOU don't know the profit margin nor projection for UA/NH, or if there even is one, per se

...but you, like the poster in previous question, ASSUME superior strength of network "integration" based on capacity devoted to a single routing at a single point in time; yet can't figure out why someone might tell you that there's not enough information available to accurately make such a call regarding the scope of an entire agreement between two of the largest carriers in their respective hemispheres?

Yikes.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Lootess
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:45 pm

Kind of hilarious some west coast bias tries to argue that Chicago isn't a big epicenter. Chicago is metropolis of the midwest. Boeing and United's home. Of course they are making it work out. AA has always made ORD feel second-rate to their other hubs.

DL does want ATL-PEK, but not over LAX-PEK. The sooner they can get those slots, the sooner they can push AA out of LAX-PEK as well. It's just funny how much they argued for that route to screw DL and can't even make their two ORD routes work at the same time. When they probably could have petitioned for moving the slots.

DL requested ATL-PEK it when they initially asked for ATL-PVG in the first slot go-around over a decade ago.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5393
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:49 pm

Lootess wrote:

DL does want ATL-PEK, but not over LAX-PEK. The sooner they can get those slots, the sooner they can push AA out of LAX-PEK as well. It's just funny how much they argued for that route to screw DL and can't even make their two ORD routes work at the same time. When they probably could have petitioned for moving the slots.
.


You say this based on?

China yields are in the crapper across the board now. Frankly, I dont think any airline is going to trip over themselves to add frequency there from any hub.
Next flight: IAH-NRT-IAH on NH in J
 
AAplat4life
Posts: 312
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:14 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:21 pm

Reading the transcript of Robert Isom’s presentation at the recent Cowen Global Transportation Conference, I got the distinct impression that many of AA’s Pacific routes out of LAX are unprofitable too. Some may be doing better than others, but China is probably struggling due to yields, and others particularly outside of premium class. He didn’t go into much detail and seemed nervous to be speaking in front of investment analysts.
 
winginit
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:35 pm

Lootess wrote:
Kind of hilarious some west coast bias tries to argue that Chicago isn't a big epicenter. Chicago is metropolis of the midwest. Boeing and United's home. Of course they are making it work out. AA has always made ORD feel second-rate to their other hubs.

DL does want ATL-PEK, but not over LAX-PEK. The sooner they can get those slots, the sooner they can push AA out of LAX-PEK as well. It's just funny how much they argued for that route to screw DL and can't even make their two ORD routes work at the same time. When they probably could have petitioned for moving the slots.

DL requested ATL-PEK it when they initially asked for ATL-PVG in the first slot go-around over a decade ago.


DL absolutely does not want to fly LAXPEK as they're not keen on losing $25M+ annually. They only put their hat in the ring to competitively block AA.

AAplat4life wrote:
I got the distinct impression that many of AA’s Pacific routes out of LAX are unprofitable too. Some may be doing better than others, but China is probably struggling due to yields, and others particularly outside of premium class.


Without question. You can bet that AA, UA, and DL are all losing their shirts on LAXPVG and LAXPEK has got to be a money pit for AA. You had a short lived gravy train when Disney was building Disneyland in Shanghai, but that drying up compounded with collapsing yields are making the route an absolute dog for everyone.
 
Lootess
Posts: 81
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:21 am

winginit wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Kind of hilarious some west coast bias tries to argue that Chicago isn't a big epicenter. Chicago is metropolis of the midwest. Boeing and United's home. Of course they are making it work out. AA has always made ORD feel second-rate to their other hubs.

DL does want ATL-PEK, but not over LAX-PEK. The sooner they can get those slots, the sooner they can push AA out of LAX-PEK as well. It's just funny how much they argued for that route to screw DL and can't even make their two ORD routes work at the same time. When they probably could have petitioned for moving the slots.

DL requested ATL-PEK it when they initially asked for ATL-PVG in the first slot go-around over a decade ago.


DL absolutely does not want to fly LAXPEK as they're not keen on losing $25M+ annually. They only put their hat in the ring to competitively block AA.

AAplat4life wrote:
I got the distinct impression that many of AA’s Pacific routes out of LAX are unprofitable too. Some may be doing better than others, but China is probably struggling due to yields, and others particularly outside of premium class.


Without question. You can bet that AA, UA, and DL are all losing their shirts on LAXPVG and LAXPEK has got to be a money pit for AA. You had a short lived gravy train when Disney was building Disneyland in Shanghai, but that drying up compounded with collapsing yields are making the route an absolute dog for everyone.


You are completely wrong.

Delta is doing just fine on LAX-PVG, because of the China Eastern relationship and good slot times. The Korean Air JV cuts out China, they still want PEK, and fought to get it even with SEA-PEK, had preferred slot timings with China Eastern while AA was scrambling to get any slot. Don't be surprised for DL to challenge a dormancy waiver, they don't have anymore free options on Tier 1 China slots after starting ATL-PVG.

If the route benefits a Delta investment or JV, it's going to be considered.
 
Yossarian22
Posts: 78
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:25 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:35 am

winginit wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Kind of hilarious some west coast bias tries to argue that Chicago isn't a big epicenter. Chicago is metropolis of the midwest. Boeing and United's home. Of course they are making it work out. AA has always made ORD feel second-rate to their other hubs.

DL does want ATL-PEK, but not over LAX-PEK. The sooner they can get those slots, the sooner they can push AA out of LAX-PEK as well. It's just funny how much they argued for that route to screw DL and can't even make their two ORD routes work at the same time. When they probably could have petitioned for moving the slots.

DL requested ATL-PEK it when they initially asked for ATL-PVG in the first slot go-around over a decade ago.


DL absolutely does not want to fly LAXPEK as they're not keen on losing $25M+ annually. They only put their hat in the ring to competitively block AA.

AAplat4life wrote:
I got the distinct impression that many of AA’s Pacific routes out of LAX are unprofitable too. Some may be doing better than others, but China is probably struggling due to yields, and others particularly outside of premium class.


Without question. You can bet that AA, UA, and DL are all losing their shirts on LAXPVG and LAXPEK has got to be a money pit for AA. You had a short lived gravy train when Disney was building Disneyland in Shanghai, but that drying up compounded with collapsing yields are making the route an absolute dog for everyone.


If the route is a money loser for any American carrier invovled, why would Delta want to block America? Why not just let American lose $25M?
 
Yossarian22
Posts: 78
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:25 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:42 am

Lootess wrote:
winginit wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Kind of hilarious some west coast bias tries to argue that Chicago isn't a big epicenter. Chicago is metropolis of the midwest. Boeing and United's home. Of course they are making it work out. AA has always made ORD feel second-rate to their other hubs.

DL does want ATL-PEK, but not over LAX-PEK. The sooner they can get those slots, the sooner they can push AA out of LAX-PEK as well. It's just funny how much they argued for that route to screw DL and can't even make their two ORD routes work at the same time. When they probably could have petitioned for moving the slots.

DL requested ATL-PEK it when they initially asked for ATL-PVG in the first slot go-around over a decade ago.


DL absolutely does not want to fly LAXPEK as they're not keen on losing $25M+ annually. They only put their hat in the ring to competitively block AA.

AAplat4life wrote:
I got the distinct impression that many of AA’s Pacific routes out of LAX are unprofitable too. Some may be doing better than others, but China is probably struggling due to yields, and others particularly outside of premium class.


Without question. You can bet that AA, UA, and DL are all losing their shirts on LAXPVG and LAXPEK has got to be a money pit for AA. You had a short lived gravy train when Disney was building Disneyland in Shanghai, but that drying up compounded with collapsing yields are making the route an absolute dog for everyone.


You are completely wrong.

Delta is doing just fine on LAX-PVG, because of the China Eastern relationship and good slot times. The Korean Air JV cuts out China, they still want PEK, and fought to get it even with SEA-PEK, had preferred slot timings with China Eastern while AA was scrambling to get any slot. Don't be surprised for DL to challenge a dormancy waiver, they don't have anymore free options on Tier 1 China slots after starting ATL-PVG.

If the route benefits a Delta investment or JV, it's going to be considered.


I’m curiuos if Delta funnels any traffic to China Eastern at Beijing. Chinese hubs are different than the U.S., while Air China is based in Beijing MU has a very large secondary hub operation there as well. For passengers traveling to places like Xi’An, Chengdu, Chongqing, and various cities in dongbei, Beijing could be a useful transfer city. Also, after Daxing opens, I’m guessing that will lead to more expansion for MU.
 
notdownnlocked
Posts: 971
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2000 1:45 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:58 am

chicawgo wrote:
102IAHexpress wrote:
I think it does matter. Generally speaking a lower supply of inhabitants in a city demands less air service. Inspite of chicagos “awesomeness” there was just not enough demand for all the air service to Asia.
There are lots of explanations for this but the bottom line is, for the reasons posted above people are moving out of chicago. That doesnt bode well for any chicago industry including airlines.


This again shows you're not understanding the context. Have you read any of the above posts discussing the DEMOGRAPHIC of people leaving Chicagoland? It's retirees and low-income minorities. They don't have an effect on air service.

Does international pax up 10% YTD mean anything to you? How about overall traffic up 4.5% YTD? How about that AA just built a concourse addition?

"But the Mexican food sucks"... I know, I know.



So Please Pretty Please stop moving all Yall azzes to DFW. Stay at home where you were born and raised. Chicago is awesome!! Trust me. Stay there for more time and you will understand why.
 
Swadian
Posts: 417
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:56 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:28 pm

727200 wrote:
$30M a year lost? That means they averaged over $85,000 a day in losses.

No wonder they decided to bail.


At least that's less than the Sunset Limited.

jfk777 wrote:
notconcerned wrote:
winginit wrote:
Elaborate on that. I don't disagree but how can AA and JL become more tightly linked? What is it that UA and NH are doing better on the joint venture front?


I guess feed might be one factor, considering AA/JL only flies from JFK, ORD, LAX, DFW to TYO. Hubs such as MIA, CLT, PHL are not providing additional feed, though one can argue that the other 4 hubs can cover the majority of the country. But if you compare to UA/NH, they have flights from EWR, ORD, IAD, IAH, DEN, SFO, LAX to TYO giving passengers more flight options.

AA/JL also generally fly smaller aircraft. DFW: AA772 and JL789 (~470 seats) vs. IAH: UA772 and NH77W (~550 seats), or LAX: AA789x2 JL77W (~814 seats) vs. NH77Wx3 UA789 (~888 seats)


JAL flies from SFO to Handa plus Boston and San Diego to Narita as well. The three US cities ANA/UA fly to Tokyo with no competition are all United hubs: Dulles, Houston and Denver. AA has three east cost hubs chomping at the bit for a flight to Tokyo: MIA, CLT & PHL. Lets hope AA/JAL sees more of Tokyo.


AA/JL really ought to get on the ball and start PHL-TYO and MIA-TYO with 787s or an AA A332 from PHL.

HPAEAA wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
788 which operates on these routes.. with the retrofit, j seat are expected top drop to either 24 or 20 (haven’t seen the final config) which is a pretty low count compared to other carriers. Even the 789 has a pretty small J cabin compare to other airlines operating long haul flying.


Just found an article on it and hard to believe but its actually dropping down to 19 since AA blocks a J seat for crew rest on flights longer than 8 hours. Forget about elites trying to use upgrade certs to get into Business class. And I thought DL was bad with 28 on the refurbished 777s

Seriously... even on the 77w dfw to HKG I’m usually on the airport standby list as an ex plat when upgrading. Admittedly CX and JAL have better Products in J and premium economy but I can’t believe that AA can’t match the revenue per sq ft between Y and J... I typically won’t pay 7k for NYC to HKG on CX but for 4-5 k on AA, it’s a reasonable alternative to coach...


I think AA wants JL's high-J heavies to take the Business Class traffic, which is why JL is increasing frequency to ORD which AA shrinks.
Inland Streamliner
 
winginit
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:05 pm

Lootess wrote:
You are completely wrong.


No. I'm not.

Lootess wrote:
Delta is doing just fine on LAX-PVG


No. They're not. When Ed was in LAX maybe two months ago he said very clearly in his town hall that LAXPVG was DL's worst LAX performer, was a notable loss-maker, and that a top corporate priority was turning the route around - hence the upgraded equipment that was placed on the route.

Lootess wrote:
because of the China Eastern relationship and good slot times.


Complete nonsense on the MU relationship front, and DL's slots are comparable to everyone else on the route. The MU relationship does virtually nothing for DL's LAXPVG with the exception of marginal CN PoS gains via codeshare. DL and MU obviously don't have any sort of joint venture, and thus they are fierce competitors within both the LAXPVG market and the broader TPAC entity. Connectivity on MU over PVG doesn't really benefit DL's LAXPVG flight because flow yields over PVG are so trash compared to local yields, and thus AA, UA, DL, and MU are all at each other's throats on the pricing front to capture the local traffic. There's simply too much capacity on the route, and shy of a proper JV between MU and DL that's years away the two can't really help one another effectively.

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