jayunited
Posts: 1779
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:02 pm

janders wrote:
Sounds like DL and UA forced AA's hand and now they will be back with the flights for Summer 2019. Wonder how much money it will bleed.


Although most airlines have not finalized their entire summer 2019 schedule AA doesn't have much time to place these flights back on the schedule and open them for sale to the public. If this is an attempt by AA to stall a final decision from the DOT on DL and UA's application I think it will backfire. AA amended there request for a dormancy till June 28, 2019, I'm willing to give AA a few extra days to resume the flights till after the 4th of July holiday but if they aren't scheduled to utilizing those slots by July 5th the DOT should take both from AA.
If these routes are so important to AA I think they should have continued to operate the routes even though they were loosing money because its not like competition to China is cooling off in fact the exact opposite is happening competition is just starting to heat up especially from Chinese airlines.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3133
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:16 pm

I think AA may use the slots next summer but not from Chicago.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2173
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:00 pm

There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.
 
HPAEAA
Posts: 988
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 7:24 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call it insanity, what seems to be clear is they see the slots (if not the routes too) as important to the long term strategy, important enough that they want to block UA & DL from taking them and furthering their advantage in the market & region. Remember that a lot of the short-med term factors that are impacting profitably can change such as fuel price, international relations, investor presures, Corp contracts which could put the flights in the black again. Atleast for 3 quarters they haven’t taken a loss which helps with the investors, it’s possible they see an opportunity to continue maturing the market down the road.
1.4mm and counting...
 
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BroadwayLimited
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:34 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

100% agree.
 
User avatar
janders
Posts: 510
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:27 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:17 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
I think AA may use the slots next summer but not from Chicago.


Very much doubt it as they would again have to ask the DOT to transfer the routes to another gateway, which in turn opens the doors again for DL and UA to argue their own route cases and to have AA stripped of the authority entirely.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 933
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.


Maybe they had assumed with the softness in China yields and the other open frequencies that no one would challenge them. Bad assumption if so.
 
heretothere
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:50 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:49 pm

LAXintl wrote:
AA updated their dormancy request - instead of October 2019, they now seek dormancy till June 28, 2019.


This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3339
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:05 pm

heretothere wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
AA updated their dormancy request - instead of October 2019, they now seek dormancy till June 28, 2019.


This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


Daxing Airport doesn't open until the 30th of September 2019 according to the CAAC. So I'd assume that AA stating they will announce their plans by June 28th is them saying that by that date they'll have a good idea about what is going to be available to them at Daxing in terms of slots and times. Also makes sense for them in terms of codeshare integration with China Southern.

So maybe, eventually, we'll hear about what AA has planned in terms of flights to Daxing and what is happening with the CZ codeshares over their Daxing hub?
 
User avatar
janders
Posts: 510
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:27 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:55 pm

heretothere wrote:
This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
winginit
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:00 pm

HPAEAA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call it insanity, what seems to be clear is they see the slots (if not the routes too) as important to the long term strategy, important enough that they want to block UA & DL from taking them and furthering their advantage in the market & region. Remember that a lot of the short-med term factors that are impacting profitably can change such as fuel price, international relations, investor presures, Corp contracts which could put the flights in the black again. Atleast for 3 quarters they haven’t taken a loss which helps with the investors, it’s possible they see an opportunity to continue maturing the market down the road.


Would love to sit down with the C Suites of the US3 and ask them point blank for two dates:

- The date when their networks to China will be profitable
- The date when those profits will surpass the mountains of losses that they've sustained launching and operating TPAC nonstops between the US and Mainland China in their quest for that hypothetical long-term profitability

Bet we'd get a lot of blank stares and murmurs about corporate contracts and 'the future'
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3110
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

I cannot fathom WHY American is losing money in Asia at ALL!! IF JAL,ANA, Delta and United can make money in Asia? Then So can American.

What's the damn Problem?? They've got the Airplanes and they've got the knowledge and they aren't lacking in Skills. So either they don't WANT to fly in Asia? OR? They're just there to keep United and Delta from Dominating. They need to crap or get off the pot!!
 
tphuang
Posts: 2173
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:33 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

I cannot fathom WHY American is losing money in Asia at ALL!! IF JAL,ANA, Delta and United can make money in Asia? Then So can American.

What's the damn Problem?? They've got the Airplanes and they've got the knowledge and they aren't lacking in Skills. So either they don't WANT to fly in Asia? OR? They're just there to keep United and Delta from Dominating. They need to crap or get off the pot!!


what makes you think DL and UA are making money to China?
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 933
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 8:44 pm

janders wrote:
heretothere wrote:
This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.


AA: Trust us that we will restart this service. We will give you details later after you’ve dismissed DL and UA.

Can’t imagine this will be accepted as-is.
 
User avatar
adambrau
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2007 11:44 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:07 pm

winginit wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call it insanity, what seems to be clear is they see the slots (if not the routes too) as important to the long term strategy, important enough that they want to block UA & DL from taking them and furthering their advantage in the market & region. Remember that a lot of the short-med term factors that are impacting profitably can change such as fuel price, international relations, investor presures, Corp contracts which could put the flights in the black again. Atleast for 3 quarters they haven’t taken a loss which helps with the investors, it’s possible they see an opportunity to continue maturing the market down the road.


Would love to sit down with the C Suites of the US3 and ask them point blank for two dates:

- The date when their networks to China will be profitable
- The date when those profits will surpass the mountains of losses that they've sustained launching and operating TPAC nonstops between the US and Mainland China in their quest for that hypothetical long-term profitability

Bet we'd get a lot of blank stares and murmurs about corporate contracts and 'the future'


One word answer. "Amazon".
Let's keep the skies friendly.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 57
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:12 pm

I don't think China will ever be a profitable market but it is a big one. These two should not be confused.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25492
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:16 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
janders wrote:
heretothere wrote:
This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.


AA: Trust us that we will restart this service. We will give you details later after you’ve dismissed DL and UA.

Can’t imagine this will be accepted as-is.


It probably will be. AA never said dismiss. Thy said defer.
a.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 933
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:07 am

MAH4546 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
janders wrote:

You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.


AA: Trust us that we will restart this service. We will give you details later after you’ve dismissed DL and UA.

Can’t imagine this will be accepted as-is.


It probably will be. AA never said dismiss. Thy said defer.


It still doesn’t make sense. They’ve already requested dormancy and their competitors want the slots so why should we sit and wait?
 
winginit
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:41 am

adambrau wrote:
winginit wrote:
HPAEAA wrote:
I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call it insanity, what seems to be clear is they see the slots (if not the routes too) as important to the long term strategy, important enough that they want to block UA & DL from taking them and furthering their advantage in the market & region. Remember that a lot of the short-med term factors that are impacting profitably can change such as fuel price, international relations, investor presures, Corp contracts which could put the flights in the black again. Atleast for 3 quarters they haven’t taken a loss which helps with the investors, it’s possible they see an opportunity to continue maturing the market down the road.


Would love to sit down with the C Suites of the US3 and ask them point blank for two dates:

- The date when their networks to China will be profitable
- The date when those profits will surpass the mountains of losses that they've sustained launching and operating TPAC nonstops between the US and Mainland China in their quest for that hypothetical long-term profitability

Bet we'd get a lot of blank stares and murmurs about corporate contracts and 'the future'


One word answer. "Amazon".


Ha. The same Amazon who have a coach employee booking policy and have started their own Cargo carrier?. Me thinks they'll need a whole hell of a lot more than that to right the ship.

And this whole thing gets blown to smithereens if Open Skies can be agreed to between China and the US. If we thought the griping of the US3 was bad against the ME3 it will be a whisper compared to what will come out against the state-owned CN3 in an Open Skies marketplace.
 
User avatar
Rookie87
Posts: 242
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:33 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:49 am

winginit wrote:
adambrau wrote:
winginit wrote:

Would love to sit down with the C Suites of the US3 and ask them point blank for two dates:

- The date when their networks to China will be profitable
- The date when those profits will surpass the mountains of losses that they've sustained launching and operating TPAC nonstops between the US and Mainland China in their quest for that hypothetical long-term profitability

Bet we'd get a lot of blank stares and murmurs about corporate contracts and 'the future'


One word answer. "Amazon".


Ha. The same Amazon who have a coach employee booking policy and have started their own Cargo carrier?. Me thinks they'll need a whole hell of a lot more than that to right the ship.

And this whole thing gets blown to smithereens if Open Skies can be agreed to between China and the US. If we thought the griping of the US3 was bad against the ME3 it will be a whisper compared to what will come out against the state-owned CN3 in an Open Skies marketplace.



I wonder if he/she’s referring to Amazon headquarters being in Dallas and the flights moving to DFW ?
And coach only policy for international?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25492
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:49 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

AA: Trust us that we will restart this service. We will give you details later after you’ve dismissed DL and UA.

Can’t imagine this will be accepted as-is.


It probably will be. AA never said dismiss. Thy said defer.


It still doesn’t make sense. They’ve already requested dormancy and their competitors want the slots so why should we sit and wait?


Nobody is waiting. Firstly, DL isn’t asking for one of AA slots. Secondly, UA says it won’t start service until 2020, but AA says it will use them in 2019 So there’s no point in opening a case now because AA will use the slots a year ahead. Now maybe UA comes forward and says it’ll use the slots in 3019, but DOT has already set precedent allowing reasonable dormancy for China slots, and AA’s dormancy from November to June is not only reasonable, but less than the dormancy period other airlines, including United, have had for China frequencies in recent past.
a.
 
User avatar
Rookie87
Posts: 242
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:33 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:26 am

Rookie87 wrote:
winginit wrote:
adambrau wrote:

One word answer. "Amazon".


Ha. The same Amazon who have a coach employee booking policy and have started their own Cargo carrier?. Me thinks they'll need a whole hell of a lot more than that to right the ship.

And this whole thing gets blown to smithereens if Open Skies can be agreed to between China and the US. If we thought the griping of the US3 was bad against the ME3 it will be a whisper compared to what will come out against the state-owned CN3 in an Open Skies marketplace.



I wonder if he/she’s referring to Amazon headquarters being in Dallas and the flights moving to DFW ?
And coach only policy for international?


Nevermind, new HQ is in NY
 
75WFlyer
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:51 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:03 pm

After the comments that the AA VP of Network Planning made a few months ago this is pretty shocking that they would even try and state that they “may” restart ORD-PEK/PVG. I just don’t see how the DOT can look past the comments and give AA any credibility. It almost seems like they are trying to buy time until there can be a huge contest for the 3 available slots after the AA*/CZ codeshare matures and CZ exits Skyteam. I’m assuming AA would try and shift those frequencies away from ORD and could even try something to CAN at that point. I’ll be sitting with my popcorn watching this one - but my belief is the DOT should tell DL/UA fly the route within 6 months if they are truly committed and want to benefit the traveling public. AA asking to resume during peak season (JUN-SEP in CN) IMO is laughable - every carrier would love to fly when they are guaranteed to make money!
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2032
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:21 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
I think AA may use the slots next summer but not from Chicago.

They aren’t slots, they are frequencies.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2032
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:29 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
I don't think China will ever be a profitable market but it is a big one. These two should not be confused.

You just described every US corporation’s situation in China. China is fools gold
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 1:38 pm

75WFlyer wrote:
After the comments that the AA VP of Network Planning made a few months ago this is pretty shocking that they would even try and state that they “may” restart ORD-PEK/PVG. I just don’t see how the DOT can look past the comments and give AA any credibility. It almost seems like they are trying to buy time until there can be a huge contest for the 3 available slots after the AA*/CZ codeshare matures and CZ exits Skyteam. I’m assuming AA would try and shift those frequencies away from ORD and could even try something to CAN at that point. I’ll be sitting with my popcorn watching this one - but my belief is the DOT should tell DL/UA fly the route within 6 months if they are truly committed and want to benefit the traveling public. AA asking to resume during peak season (JUN-SEP in CN) IMO is laughable - every carrier would love to fly when they are guaranteed to make money!


There are an additional 7 frequencies available for service to CAN, over and about the 21 frequencies at issue. So, keeping these to serve CAN with would be a huge waste.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 933
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:41 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

It probably will be. AA never said dismiss. Thy said defer.


It still doesn’t make sense. They’ve already requested dormancy and their competitors want the slots so why should we sit and wait?


Nobody is waiting. Firstly, DL isn’t asking for one of AA slots. Secondly, UA says it won’t start service until 2020, but AA says it will use them in 2019 So there’s no point in opening a case now because AA will use the slots a year ahead. Now maybe UA comes forward and says it’ll use the slots in 3019, but DOT has already set precedent allowing reasonable dormancy for China slots, and AA’s dormancy from November to June is not only reasonable, but less than the dormancy period other airlines, including United, have had for China frequencies in recent past.


There is nothing stopping AA from getting to June 2019 and requesting another year of dormancy. They should be forced to show their plans or deal with opening a case.
 
75WFlyer
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:51 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:02 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
75WFlyer wrote:
After the comments that the AA VP of Network Planning made a few months ago this is pretty shocking that they would even try and state that they “may” restart ORD-PEK/PVG. I just don’t see how the DOT can look past the comments and give AA any credibility. It almost seems like they are trying to buy time until there can be a huge contest for the 3 available slots after the AA*/CZ codeshare matures and CZ exits Skyteam. I’m assuming AA would try and shift those frequencies away from ORD and could even try something to CAN at that point. I’ll be sitting with my popcorn watching this one - but my belief is the DOT should tell DL/UA fly the route within 6 months if they are truly committed and want to benefit the traveling public. AA asking to resume during peak season (JUN-SEP in CN) IMO is laughable - every carrier would love to fly when they are guaranteed to make money!


There are an additional 7 frequencies available for service to CAN, over and about the 21 frequencies at issue. So, keeping these to serve CAN with would be a huge waste.


I thought no US carrier flew to CAN because it would be a complete waste of a tier 1 frequency. Aren’t PEK/PVG/CAN the tier 1 cities where frequencies are limited?
 
tphuang
Posts: 2173
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 3:16 pm

I'm not sure why CAN got classified in the same tier 1 as PEK and PVG. There is just much less O&D there compared to the other 2. Guangzhou + Shenzhen is just not as large as Beijing + Tianjin or Shanghai + Hangzhou. And even for the O&D traffic to Shenzhen, some people prefer to fly CX to HKG and then cross the border. Also for VFR traffic to other part of China, it doesn't make sense to fly down to CAN and then backtrack to middle of China. And also a lot of people take train to where they are going and there are more options available at Beijing and Shanghai.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:56 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

It still doesn’t make sense. They’ve already requested dormancy and their competitors want the slots so why should we sit and wait?


Nobody is waiting. Firstly, DL isn’t asking for one of AA slots. Secondly, UA says it won’t start service until 2020, but AA says it will use them in 2019 So there’s no point in opening a case now because AA will use the slots a year ahead. Now maybe UA comes forward and says it’ll use the slots in 3019, but DOT has already set precedent allowing reasonable dormancy for China slots, and AA’s dormancy from November to June is not only reasonable, but less than the dormancy period other airlines, including United, have had for China frequencies in recent past.


There is nothing stopping AA from getting to June 2019 and requesting another year of dormancy. They should be forced to show their plans or deal with opening a case.


I completely agree. AA is being ridiculous. I'm sure, however, that the DOT (in their infinite wisdom) will grant the dormancy request!
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 638
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:14 pm

I have tons of friends who work for Amazon. The company’s travel policy doesn’t permit business or first class anywhere. It’s coach only, unless you pay yourself or use mikes to upgrade yourself. Coach only.


Rookie87 wrote:
winginit wrote:
adambrau wrote:

One word answer. "Amazon".


Ha. The same Amazon who have a coach employee booking policy and have started their own Cargo carrier?. Me thinks they'll need a whole hell of a lot more than that to right the ship.

And this whole thing gets blown to smithereens if Open Skies can be agreed to between China and the US. If we thought the griping of the US3 was bad against the ME3 it will be a whisper compared to what will come out against the state-owned CN3 in an Open Skies marketplace.



I wonder if he/she’s referring to Amazon headquarters being in Dallas and the flights moving to DFW ?
And coach only policy for international?
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:35 am

75WFlyer wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
75WFlyer wrote:
After the comments that the AA VP of Network Planning made a few months ago this is pretty shocking that they would even try and state that they “may” restart ORD-PEK/PVG. I just don’t see how the DOT can look past the comments and give AA any credibility. It almost seems like they are trying to buy time until there can be a huge contest for the 3 available slots after the AA*/CZ codeshare matures and CZ exits Skyteam. I’m assuming AA would try and shift those frequencies away from ORD and could even try something to CAN at that point. I’ll be sitting with my popcorn watching this one - but my belief is the DOT should tell DL/UA fly the route within 6 months if they are truly committed and want to benefit the traveling public. AA asking to resume during peak season (JUN-SEP in CN) IMO is laughable - every carrier would love to fly when they are guaranteed to make money!


There are an additional 7 frequencies available for service to CAN, over and about the 21 frequencies at issue. So, keeping these to serve CAN with would be a huge waste.


I thought no US carrier flew to CAN because it would be a complete waste of a tier 1 frequency. Aren’t PEK/PVG/CAN the tier 1 cities where frequencies are limited?


Yes, those are the tier 1 cities, but there an extra 7 tier 1 frequencies JUST for CAN. It’s weird, but those frequencies have never been used. AA to connect with CZ from DFW is probably the most likely candidate for using those frequencies any time soon.
 
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PW100
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:59 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

It still doesn’t make sense. They’ve already requested dormancy and their competitors want the slots so why should we sit and wait?


Nobody is waiting. Firstly, DL isn’t asking for one of AA slots. Secondly, UA says it won’t start service until 2020, but AA says it will use them in 2019 So there’s no point in opening a case now because AA will use the slots a year ahead. Now maybe UA comes forward and says it’ll use the slots in 3019, but DOT has already set precedent allowing reasonable dormancy for China slots, and AA’s dormancy from November to June is not only reasonable, but less than the dormancy period other airlines, including United, have had for China frequencies in recent past.


There is nothing stopping AA from getting to June 2019 and requesting another year of dormancy. They should be forced to show their plans or deal with opening a case.


There is nothing stopping DOT from denying another year of dormancy if other airlines want to jump in . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 933
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:02 pm

PW100 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Nobody is waiting. Firstly, DL isn’t asking for one of AA slots. Secondly, UA says it won’t start service until 2020, but AA says it will use them in 2019 So there’s no point in opening a case now because AA will use the slots a year ahead. Now maybe UA comes forward and says it’ll use the slots in 3019, but DOT has already set precedent allowing reasonable dormancy for China slots, and AA’s dormancy from November to June is not only reasonable, but less than the dormancy period other airlines, including United, have had for China frequencies in recent past.


There is nothing stopping AA from getting to June 2019 and requesting another year of dormancy. They should be forced to show their plans or deal with opening a case.


There is nothing stopping DOT from denying another year of dormancy if other airlines want to jump in . . .


AA has said nothing that should engender confidence they ever restart these frequencies. The best situation for the public would make all the interested carriers compete for the frequencies now. Make everyone sharpen their pencils.
 
c933103
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
I'm not sure why CAN got classified in the same tier 1 as PEK and PVG. There is just much less O&D there compared to the other 2. Guangzhou + Shenzhen is just not as large as Beijing + Tianjin or Shanghai + Hangzhou. And even for the O&D traffic to Shenzhen, some people prefer to fly CX to HKG and then cross the border. Also for VFR traffic to other part of China, it doesn't make sense to fly down to CAN and then backtrack to middle of China. And also a lot of people take train to where they are going and there are more options available at Beijing and Shanghai.

On the other hand CZ flown a lot of intercontinental routes out if CAN, if it is not considered Tier 1 then they would have an unfair advantage
 
c933103
Posts: 2890
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:55 pm

janders wrote:
heretothere wrote:
This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.

From the look of it they might be launching two new daily flight to Beijing's new secondary airport in 2019 from the two American cities that they currently have Chinese flights, so that travellers can pick between flying to PEK or Daxing? Given that Daxing will be where CZ is at and offer connections to rest of China
Also noteworthy is that CZ currently leaved their original alliance and since Daxing-PEK airport distribution is supposed to be based on alliance so it could further disturb things. Maybe AA won't make any relevant announcement until CZ settled into whatever new alliance they will pick in the future.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25492
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Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:06 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
PW100 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

There is nothing stopping AA from getting to June 2019 and requesting another year of dormancy. They should be forced to show their plans or deal with opening a case.


There is nothing stopping DOT from denying another year of dormancy if other airlines want to jump in . . .


AA has said nothing that should engender confidence they ever restart these frequencies. The best situation for the public would make all the interested carriers compete for the frequencies now. Make everyone sharpen their pencils.


AA has said they will use the frequencies by June 2019. Absent another airline claiming same, nothing else needs to happen. We shouldn’t waste resources by opening a case at the moment.
a.
 
jbs2886
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Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:29 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
PW100 wrote:

There is nothing stopping DOT from denying another year of dormancy if other airlines want to jump in . . .


AA has said nothing that should engender confidence they ever restart these frequencies. The best situation for the public would make all the interested carriers compete for the frequencies now. Make everyone sharpen their pencils.


AA has said they will use the frequencies by June 2019. Absent another airline claiming same, nothing else needs to happen. We shouldn’t waste resources by opening a case at the moment.


Incorrect. AA said they would announce what they are doing by June 2019. Which wouldn’t be a start date until 2020 anyways.

AA has played this game and won so now they reap what they sow.
 
75WFlyer
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:51 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 7:12 pm

The sad thing about the AA suspensions of ORD-PEK/PVG is that they have been the pest in the China market. They offer crazy low fares (especially exit-China) often undercutting the CN3 and HU. From a consumer perspective it’d be great if they continued flying these routes and offered the rock bottom prices they have for the past few years. Someone at AA HQ has probably noticed just how awful things are and finally made a rational decision to suspend them. I almost wonder if they will argue that their service benefits the traveling public more than any new UA/DL flights would since they have made travel more affordable - I fear without them being relevant in the Midwest/Northeast, fares will rise.

On a related note, how much longer will AA hang in LAX-PEK/PVG.....those flights have to bleeding money. I think LAX-PEK may be worse P/L wise than any of the ORD flights.
 
winginit
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:06 pm

75WFlyer wrote:
The sad thing about the AA suspensions of ORD-PEK/PVG is that they have been the pest in the China market. They offer crazy low fares (especially exit-China) often undercutting the CN3 and HU. From a consumer perspective it’d be great if they continued flying these routes and offered the rock bottom prices they have for the past few years. Someone at AA HQ has probably noticed just how awful things are and finally made a rational decision to suspend them.


Oh I have no doubt they've known full well how awful these routes are and have been since their launch. Remember the debacle back a few years ago when they first tried to launch them without viable slots and had to straight up delay the launch? There's no way these have ever been anything but dogs.

75WFlyer wrote:
I almost wonder if they will argue that their service benefits the traveling public more than any new UA/DL flights would since they have made travel more affordable - I fear without them being relevant in the Midwest/Northeast, fares will rise.


Would be a slippery slope. For better or for worse, the primary obligation is to the shareholders before the customers; and shareholders hearing that American is essentially operating a charity for the consumer likely wouldn't go well.

75WFlyer wrote:
On a related note, how much longer will AA hang in LAX-PEK/PVG.....those flights have to bleeding money. I think LAX-PEK may be worse P/L wise than any of the ORD flights.


Completely agree. I think they have to hang on having planted their TPAC stake in LAX as the competitive alternative to UA's SFO and DL's SEA (kind of...), but what a disaster that route must be. I'd guess LAXPEK loses $50M a year.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:33 pm

I agree with all this, which makes it even more confusing why they don’t just give up the frequencies. Do they actually expect things to get better in the Chinese market when the Chinese economy is slowing down? Do they really expect daxing to do better than pek. It may have more connections but the o&d from America will be weaker. And those connection traffic is going to be anything but high yielding.

Outside of ua out of sfo, I don’t see which other routes could be making money among the us carriers
 
klm617
Posts: 3409
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:43 pm

janders wrote:
heretothere wrote:
This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.


So if I am reading this correctly DL needs AA to return the slot to start MSP-PVG correct.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jbs2886
Posts: 1842
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:45 pm

klm617 wrote:
janders wrote:
heretothere wrote:
This isn’t correct. In the filing, AA says they will announce their plans for these frequencies by June 28th. AA still doesn’t intend to operate these frequencies until next Fall (if at all).


You are reading it wrong... AA specifically is asking for dormancy until June 28th, 2019.

For these reasons, American respectfully requests that the Department grant American a dormancy waiver until June 28, 2019, and defer action on Delta’s and United’s applications for frequencies for their proposed June 2020 services.

They plan to have restored service on or before June 28, 2019 based on the request of dormancy period till June 28, 2019.

American respectfully requests that the Department defer action on their service proposals and provide American the opportunity to submit firm plans to restore its two U.S.-China services on or before June 28, 2019.


So if I am reading this correctly DL needs AA to return the slot to start MSP-PVG correct.


Incorrect. Please read Delta’s filing. It is not requesting AA frequencies. It’s requesting 7 existing available frequencies.
 
klm617
Posts: 3409
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There seems to be a genuine madness going on here. There is no where aa can put these flights which would not end up hemorrhaging money. Why are they trying so hard to keep dl and ua from getting them? Let dl and ua get their slots and loose money with it. This is complete insanity.

I cannot fathom WHY American is losing money in Asia at ALL!! IF JAL,ANA, Delta and United can make money in Asia? Then So can American.

What's the damn Problem?? They've got the Airplanes and they've got the knowledge and they aren't lacking in Skills. So either they don't WANT to fly in Asia? OR? They're just there to keep United and Delta from Dominating. They need to crap or get off the pot!!


what makes you think DL and UA are making money to China?


Delta is printing money on DTW-PVG.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
nomorerjs
Posts: 794
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:24 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:35 pm

klm617 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
I cannot fathom WHY American is losing money in Asia at ALL!! IF JAL,ANA, Delta and United can make money in Asia? Then So can American.

What's the damn Problem?? They've got the Airplanes and they've got the knowledge and they aren't lacking in Skills. So either they don't WANT to fly in Asia? OR? They're just there to keep United and Delta from Dominating. They need to crap or get off the pot!!


what makes you think DL and UA are making money to China?


Delta is printing money on DTW-PVG.


Source please.
 
jayunited
Posts: 1779
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:12 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Incorrect. Please read Delta’s filing. It is not requesting AA frequencies. It’s requesting 7 existing available frequencies.


United isn't directly requesting AA's frequencies either but since there is only one daily slot remaining should the DOT allow AA to retain both their frequencies then both DL and UA would have to fight it out over why their proposed routes better benefit the public.
However if it does come down to this, AA keeping their frequencies I think the DOT would side with DL because an argument could be made that UA could just upguage EWR and perhaps even ORD and SFO to 77Ws to accommodate the increased demand. In my opinion if AA keeps both their frequencies UA looses.
 
75WFlyer
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:51 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:54 pm

nomorerjs wrote:
klm617 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

what makes you think DL and UA are making money to China?


Delta is printing money on DTW-PVG.


Source please.


Not sure if anyone will be able to post a source for this as they’d have to be an insider or have access to some sort of industry profitability information. I personally believe DTW-PVG prints money as it is always full in J and fares are super high with a lot of corporate (automotive) traffic. I wouldn’t be shocked if DTW-PVG was DLs only profitable China flight (SEA may make some money but I’d wager ATL and LAX lose a ton).
 
75WFlyer
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:51 am

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:00 pm

jayunited wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Incorrect. Please read Delta’s filing. It is not requesting AA frequencies. It’s requesting 7 existing available frequencies.


United isn't directly requesting AA's frequencies either but since there is only one daily slot remaining should the DOT allow AA to retain both their frequencies then both DL and UA would have to fight it out over why their proposed routes better benefit the public.
However if it does come down to this, AA keeping their frequencies I think the DOT would side with DL because an argument could be made that UA could just upguage EWR and perhaps even ORD and SFO to 77Ws to accommodate the increased demand. In my opinion if AA keeps both their frequencies UA looses.


Losing is a relative term here ha. If UA doesn’t get EWR-PVG #2, that is probably a $20M savings a year. So sure they lose the rights to fly a second frequency (and play the long game) but shareholders should be happy as they wouldn’t be losing all the money in the bloodbath that would be EWR-PVG #2. No way NYC-PVG warrants 4 daily frequencies (2 MU, 2 UA) as even LAX-PVG with 5 daily frequencies, more industry demand and shorter stage length isn’t profitable for any carrier.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 1842
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:31 am

jayunited wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Incorrect. Please read Delta’s filing. It is not requesting AA frequencies. It’s requesting 7 existing available frequencies.


United isn't directly requesting AA's frequencies either but since there is only one daily slot remaining should the DOT allow AA to retain both their frequencies then both DL and UA would have to fight it out over why their proposed routes better benefit the public.
However if it does come down to this, AA keeping their frequencies I think the DOT would side with DL because an argument could be made that UA could just upguage EWR and perhaps even ORD and SFO to 77Ws to accommodate the increased demand. In my opinion if AA keeps both their frequencies UA looses.


Agree. UAs application is a bit odd as they don’t seem to object to DLs application for the non-AA frequencies, unless I missed it.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 298
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: UPDATED: AA drops ORD-PEK/PVG, reduces NRT

Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:16 am

ORD as a hub was not profitable due entirety to China. Without China its solidly profitable moving close to the DFW, CLT type of profit..

Now maybe that all changes at $30 oil?

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