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Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 10:17 am

The Tourism chief is confident

"We are confident that sooner, rather than later, you are going to see direct air service from Tokyo to Miami, Florida," Talbert told the crowd Tuesday. "Next year, I will be standing here and we will have the head of Japan Airlines and we will have done the inaugural."


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/busines ... ylink=copy

Long overdue but I’m not holding my breath.

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Birdwatching
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 10:46 am

With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?
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neomax
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 10:56 am

Someone will definitely have TPAC flights by next year, the question is, with who? I feel like JL to MIA is a safe bet, but one that has taken so long already, that they almost certainly won't be the first ones. I'm betting on NH to MCO first. Why? I have no clue. But that logic was good enough for EK who went with MCO first and then FLL. People seem surprised when people from Japan comes to see WDW when they have a Disney of their own. I am just as surprised, but there are tons of Japanese folks who visit Orlando, and waaaay more than Miami or any part of South Florida in general. This is the issue in my opinion. SFL has the AA connections, but not the demand. CFL has the demand but not the connections. JL and NH are probably both thinking about launching this, but NH has probably been looking at both MCO and MIA on the basis of demand, vs. JL which is just looking at MIA and the Oneworld advantages associated with it. EK is just one airline, but they snubbed MIA twice and that speaks volumes. Logically, I want to say JL to MIA will be first, but my gut says NH to MCO first. It won't be long until we find out. (I hope)
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 11:24 am

MIA is not only a tourism destination but also the primary gateway to Latin America
 
ualcsr
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 11:37 am

Birdwatching wrote:
With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?


This is factually incorrect. If you look at the April 2018 Miami Area Economic Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Trade, transportation, utilities" comes in first, "professional and business services" comes second, "education and health services" comes in third and "leisure and hospitality" comes fourth.
 
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OA940
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 11:43 am

Birdwatching wrote:
With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?


EK has made FLL work pretty fine, and that's even more of a tourist destination.
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mats01776
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 12:05 pm

ualcsr wrote:
This is factually incorrect. If you look at the April 2018 Miami Area Economic Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Trade, transportation, utilities" comes in first, "professional and business services" comes second, "education and health services" comes in third and "leisure and hospitality" comes fourth.


That may be the case for the local economy.

However, the real questions always have been, how many people in East Asia would take a 14-hour flight all the way to Miami just to receive "transportation, utilities, professional and business services, or education or health care", and how much are they willing to pay for such a privilege?

Miami may be an excellent gateway to South America, but can Miami offer significant advantages over other gateways to South America for East Asia carriers?

I don't claim to have the answers.
 
B752OS
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 12:23 pm

ualcsr wrote:
Birdwatching wrote:
With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?


This is factually incorrect. If you look at the April 2018 Miami Area Economic Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Trade, transportation, utilities" comes in first, "professional and business services" comes second, "education and health services" comes in third and "leisure and hospitality" comes fourth.


The "trade, transportation, utilities" sector would include workers in the cruise ship industry. South Florida is home to two of the three busiest cruise ports in the world. So as you can imagine the cruise ship industry is a major employer for Miami and South Florida.
Last edited by B752OS on Thu May 03, 2018 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 12:27 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
MIA is not only a tourism destination but also the primary gateway to Latin America


...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.
 
airbazar
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 12:34 pm

Birdwatching wrote:
With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?

Can you name one large tourist attraction in MIA besides the beach?
I think you're thinking of Orlando. Miami is a major global financial center. LH doesn't fly an A380 with 100+ premium seats into MIA because tourists are buying those seats.

oldannyboy wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
MIA is not only a tourism destination but also the primary gateway to Latin America


...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.


Yes it is. Many companies, American and foreign have their Latin American HQ's located in South Florida. There are over 1000 multinationals with regional offices in S.Florida. Florida is a much more business friendly location (and stable), than most Latin American cities so companies chose to be located there rather than somewhere else in the Americas.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 1:55 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
MIA is not only a tourism destination but also the primary gateway to Latin America


...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.


But for Japan (and north east Asia), MIA is one of the best airport which has almost the shortest travel time as well as good connectivity.

Of course MEX has good connectivity too but AM is in ST but not OW

For European they have MAD or AMS or FRA or CDG but this is not the case in East Asia
Last edited by chunhimlai on Thu May 03, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 1:56 pm

AA's DFW hub, which has 3 flights a day to Tokyo, already has great connectivity to the most in-demand markets from Japan and Asia - namely, Lima, Mexico City, Santiago, Buenos Aires, and Sao Paulo. European carriers, and Emirates and Qatar Airways, also provide excellent connectivity to Brazil and Argentina.



chunhimlai wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
MIA is not only a tourism destination but also the primary gateway to Latin America


...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.


But for Japan (and north east Asia), MIA is one of the best airport which has almost the shortest travel time as well as good connectivity.

Of course MEX has good connectivity too but AM is in ST but not OW
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 2:11 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
AA's DFW hub, which has 3 flights a day to Tokyo, already has great connectivity to the most in-demand markets from Japan and Asia - namely, Lima, Mexico City, Santiago, Buenos Aires, and Sao Paulo. European carriers, and Emirates and Qatar Airways, also provide excellent connectivity to Brazil and Argentina.



chunhimlai wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:

...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.


But for Japan (and north east Asia), MIA is one of the best airport which has almost the shortest travel time as well as good connectivity.

Of course MEX has good connectivity too but AM is in ST but not OW


DFW has more connectivity to Asia than MIA but MIA offer more connectivity to than DFW, even for the airport you mention MIA has more than double frequency.

ME3 and TK and ET also have good connectivity but the travel time is much longer than via US.

South Florida is a very good tourism attraction and MIA is 5th busiest cargo airport behind MEM, ANC, SDF and ORD
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 3:07 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
AA's DFW hub, which has 3 flights a day to Tokyo, already has great connectivity to the most in-demand markets from Japan and Asia - namely, Lima, Mexico City, Santiago, Buenos Aires, and Sao Paulo. European carriers, and Emirates and Qatar Airways, also provide excellent connectivity to Brazil and Argentina.



chunhimlai wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:

...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.


But for Japan (and north east Asia), MIA is one of the best airport which has almost the shortest travel time as well as good connectivity.

Of course MEX has good connectivity too but AM is in ST but not OW


For cities in Pacific side of S. America, LAX or DFW are actually less of a detour than MIA. Japan-EZE is also quicker through DFW/LAX. Meanwhile, the largest S. America market from Japan, Brazil, is quickest through JFK (In fact, NRT-GRU great circle route fly right over NYC).

As for AM - they actually codeshare with JL, although I believe only on NRT-MEX flight and Mexico domestic flights. The traffic between Japan and Mexico is mostly automotive industry base anyway.

For the flight itself - we'll see. MIA has been trying for years to get a TPAC flight (Mainly JL), but JL so far is not biting. It's still a very long route that would required some fairly premium yield to work. Japan-S. America traffic in general are mostly VFR (to Peru or Brazil) and tourism. Japanese business are not really heavily present in S. Florida in general (You got the Sony Latin America HQ, but that's about it. O&D demand would be mostly tourism and limited low-yield VFR for those Filipino Cruise Ship workers.

Yes, if there's any carrier that can possibly make a TPAC to/from MIA work, it'll be JL. CX is the next candidate, but that's a even longer flight with even more limited demand.
 
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 3:11 pm

Finally!
No more time wasting connections.
 
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janders
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 3:37 pm

The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example.

Ultimately any Far East service will be made or broken on Miami itself - whether it can generate the traffic and revenue mix to make the route viable.

Anyhow, for JAL specifically as we know they are not only a pretty conservative company, but they just weeks ago announced their 2018-2019 business plan and only new route plans was a West Coast flight which we have since learned to be Seattle.
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rta
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 4:45 pm

I'll believe it when I see it.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 5:31 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
MIA is not only a tourism destination but also the primary gateway to Latin America


...just let me finish your statement: "...for the US".

Miami might be a gateway for Latin America for the US. Period. Not for the rest of the world.


No, absolutely not. It is a Latin America gateway for the rest of the world, which is why many international corporations base their Latin American headquarters out of Miami. Not only American companies like Kraft, Microsoft, Oracle, but companies like DHL, Canon, Sony, Telefonica, Kia, Swire Group, Espirito Santo, etc.

The reason is that it's simply easier to run these out of Miami than far more corrupt South America. The difference in corruption was far more staggering 20-30 years ago, but they've already established themselves in South Florida.
a.
 
airbazar
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 5:43 pm

janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example..

By that logic there would be no non-stop routes ever between any 2 points on the globe because there is always a better 1-stop option. :banghead:
GRU is Japan's largest market in Latin America. There are very few hubs in the World that offer more than 1 daily OW frequency to GRU. Moreover, JL and AA have a joint venture. Few hubs in the world would offer JL's customers better connectivity to Latin America than MIA. DFW can possibly match it but if the DFW O&D is already large enough neither AA not JL will want to route connecting pax via DFW. Hence why JL is rumored to be looking at MIA, IMO. Another problem for JL: Their schedule to DFW is really bad for connections to their largest Latin America market, GRU. From MIA, AA has 3 daily flights to GRU vs only 1 daily from DFW. You miss the DFW connection and you're screwed. In fact, you miss your connection at many of those multiple 1-stop hubs and you're screwed. At MIA you have multiple other frequencies to get re-booked on, for the same day.
JL to MIA is a matter of when, not if. And it's way overdue if you ask me. Their 8-abreast 788 is perfect to start a route like this.
Last edited by airbazar on Thu May 03, 2018 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 5:55 pm

I won’t hold my breath but I hope that Miami is indeed successful in securing this flight. The issue with this flight is not just that the connection opportunities beyond Miami are available via one-stop connection via numerous other hubs but also the fact that Miami itself is quite accessible via one stop connection to Asia via several hubs as well. Are there enough people who require a non-stop from Miami to Tokyo or need one stop connections beyond Tokyo to destinations that aren’t available via US hubs? Or would prefer to use a One World carrier and as such would avoid alternatives for their one stop connections beyond Tokyo that AA doesn’t offer from its US hubs? And can they pick up enough demand from smaller Latam/Caribbean markets that aren’t connected to the Texas/Midwest/West coast US hubs but are connected to Miami.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 6:10 pm

airbazar wrote:
janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example..

By that logic there would be no non-stop routes ever between any 2 points on the globe because there is always a better 1-stop option. :banghead:
GRU is Japan's largest market in Latin America. There are very few hubs in the World that offer more than 1 daily OW frequency to GRU. Moreover, JL and AA have a joint venture. Few hubs in the world would offer JL's customers better connectivity to Latin America than MIA. DFW can possibly match it but if the DFW O&D is already large enough neither AA not JL will want to route connecting pax via DFW. Hence why JL is rumored to be looking at MIA, IMO. Another problem for JL: Their schedule to DFW is really bad for connections to their largest Latin America market, GRU. From MIA, AA has 3 daily flights to GRU vs only 1 daily from DFW. You miss the DFW connection and you're screwed. In fact, you miss your connection at many of those multiple 1-stop hubs and you're screwed. At MIA you have multiple other frequencies to get re-booked on, for the same day.
JL to MIA is a matter of when, not if. And it's way overdue if you ask me. Their 8-abreast 788 is perfect to start a route like this.


Umm...you realized that JL does not even codeshare with AA to GRU via DFW. JFK is their gateway to Brazil (Both GRU/GIG) via AA/JJ. In addition, they codeshares with JJ on GRU-FRA/LHR/CDG.

There are definitely demand from Japan to MIA, the question has always been whether the yield is there to warrant a non-stop anyway.

At the end, like many said, "I'll believe it when JL announced the route". MIA has been in talk with them for years and JL is just not biting.
 
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 6:21 pm

OA940 wrote:
Birdwatching wrote:
With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?


EK has made FLL work pretty fine, and that's even more of a tourist destination.


I think EK made FLL work because of their partnership with B6, which I'm fairly certain is why they chose FLL over MIA.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 6:25 pm

I've missed the MIA-Asia threads!
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jasoncrh
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 6:28 pm

Your argument falls apart a bit. the O/D between MIA and Sao Paulo is much larger than between DFW And MIA. AA can make more money selling tickets to passengers just goign between Miami and Sao Paulo rather than accepting a pro rate of a NRT - MIA - GRU ticket. AA itself does very well on MIA- GRU/GIG/EZE as is, and doesnt need the help from connecting Japanese customers to make it work.
Also, why do you capitalize the word "world"? It's not a proper noun, and does not need to be capitalized.
AA's and JL's joint venture does NOT included South America, by the way. AA has no incentive to make inventory available to incoming passengers from Tokyo when they can probably get higher fares for those same seats from local people in Miami going to Sao Paulo.


airbazar wrote:
janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example..

By that logic there would be no non-stop routes ever between any 2 points on the globe because there is always a better 1-stop option. :banghead:
GRU is Japan's largest market in Latin America. There are very few hubs in the World that offer more than 1 daily OW frequency to GRU. Moreover, JL and AA have a joint venture. Few hubs in the world would offer JL's customers better connectivity to Latin America than MIA. DFW can possibly match it but if the DFW O&D is already large enough neither AA not JL will want to route connecting pax via DFW. Hence why JL is rumored to be looking at MIA, IMO. Another problem for JL: Their schedule to DFW is really bad for connections to their largest Latin America market, GRU. From MIA, AA has 3 daily flights to GRU vs only 1 daily from DFW. You miss the DFW connection and you're screwed. In fact, you miss your connection at many of those multiple 1-stop hubs and you're screwed. At MIA you have multiple other frequencies to get re-booked on, for the same day.
JL to MIA is a matter of when, not if. And it's way overdue if you ask me. Their 8-abreast 788 is perfect to start a route like this.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 6:35 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
I've missed the MIA-Asia threads!


At least this one have a statement from the Tourism chief :white: .

On the other hand, if JL really start the route, look out for all the "How is JL doing on NRT-MIA" threads :white: :white:
 
bzcat
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 7:13 pm

If JL is launching NRT-MIA it will be because they think there is enough traffic to South Florida from Japan (and other Asian market feeds thru NRT). They are not going to launch the route based on Japan (Asia) to South America transit traffic - those traffic are already being served by various 1-stop routes so the fact that NRT-MIA exists won't necessarily stimulate Asia-South America travel demand.
 
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c933103
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 7:26 pm

"Direct" - A dynamic airways 1-weekly service on 767 with an ANC refueling stop?
Surely MIA have talked about it over and over again and still haven't make it happen. Didn't they said Chinese airlines to MIA last time?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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c933103
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 7:41 pm

airbazar wrote:
janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example..

By that logic there would be no non-stop routes ever between any 2 points on the globe because there is always a better 1-stop option. :banghead:
GRU is Japan's largest market in Latin America. There are very few hubs in the World that offer more than 1 daily OW frequency to GRU. Moreover, JL and AA have a joint venture. Few hubs in the world would offer JL's customers better connectivity to Latin America than MIA. DFW can possibly match it but if the DFW O&D is already large enough neither AA not JL will want to route connecting pax via DFW. Hence why JL is rumored to be looking at MIA, IMO. Another problem for JL: Their schedule to DFW is really bad for connections to their largest Latin America market, GRU. From MIA, AA has 3 daily flights to GRU vs only 1 daily from DFW. You miss the DFW connection and you're screwed. In fact, you miss your connection at many of those multiple 1-stop hubs and you're screwed. At MIA you have multiple other frequencies to get re-booked on, for the same day.
JL to MIA is a matter of when, not if. And it's way overdue if you ask me. Their 8-abreast 788 is perfect to start a route like this.

JAL used to fly to GRU. But it have already been cut due to its performance. And it was just about 2 weekly before they cut it
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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airbazar
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 7:56 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
Your argument falls apart a bit. the O/D between MIA and Sao Paulo is much larger than between DFW And MIA.

Great, then nothing else matters so how is my argument falling apart?
My assumption was that since there are multiple flights between DFW and NRT and none between MIA and NRT, that DFW-NRT was a bigger market. But if it's not, even better for MIA.

jasoncrh wrote:
Also, why do you capitalize the word "world"? It's not a proper noun, and does not need to be capitalized.

Because I feel like it. I'm an engineer so shoot me.

jasoncrh wrote:
AA's and JL's joint venture does NOT included South America, by the way. AA has no incentive to make inventory available to incoming passengers from Tokyo when they can probably get higher fares for those same seats from local people in Miami going to Sao Paulo

It's in AA's best interest to make inventory for JL's passengers so they don't go with another competing airline and it helps the JV in the NRT-US leg.

c933103 wrote:
JAL used to fly to GRU. But it have already been cut due to its performance. And it was just about 2 weekly before they cut it
[/quote]
Alliances made the need to fly with own metal irrelevant. Same reason why LH doesn't fly to Australia for example and it's not for lack of traffic. It doesn't change the fact that GRU is the largest market from Tokyo.
 
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UPlog
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 7:56 pm

If JAL seeks to tap another AA hub I would say it should be PHL not MIA.

I also dont buy concept that MIA is some magical access point for Latin America. The major Latin markets are already reachable from Asia via so many other connecting cities so not sure what MIA really brings to the table beyond some more random niche cities.
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jasoncrh
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 8:08 pm

I didnt say nothing else matters, I'm just pointing out a question.
airbazar wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
Your argument falls apart a bit. the O/D between MIA and Sao Paulo is much larger than between DFW And MIA.

Great, then nothing else matters so how is my argument falling apart?
My assumption was that since there are multiple flights between DFW and NRT and none between MIA and NRT, that DFW-NRT was a bigger market. But if it's not, even better for MIA.

Engineers are known for their precision, this represents a lack of precision.
jasoncrh wrote:
Also, why do you capitalize the word "world"? It's not a proper noun, and does not need to be capitalized.

Because I feel like it. I'm an engineer so shoot me.

It is in AA's interest to get the most amount of revenue possible for the MIA - GRU/EZE/GIG segments. Those flights are not in any revenue share / JV with JAL. The most amount of revenue for those MIA - South America flights probably comes from local customers or customers whose itinerary is not pro-rated over a transpacific leg.
jasoncrh wrote:
AA's and JL's joint venture does NOT included South America, by the way. AA has no incentive to make inventory available to incoming passengers from Tokyo when they can probably get higher fares for those same seats from local people in Miami going to Sao Paulo

It's in AA's best interest to make inventory for JL's passengers so they don't go with another competing airline and it helps the JV in the NRT-US leg.

GRU is served very well from NRT via many, many 1-stop options. What's so magical about Miami?
c933103 wrote:
JAL used to fly to GRU. But it have already been cut due to its performance. And it was just about 2 weekly before they cut it

Alliances made the need to fly with own metal irrelevant. Same reason why LH doesn't fly to Australia for example and it's not for lack of traffic. It doesn't change the fact that GRU is the largest market from Tokyo.[/quote]
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 797
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 8:09 pm

I didnt say nothing else matters, I'm just pointing out a question. Also, Engineers are known for their precision, this represents a lack of precision. Finally, It is in AA's interest to get the most amount of revenue possible for the MIA - GRU/EZE/GIG segments. Those flights are not in any revenue share / JV with JAL. The most amount of revenue for those MIA - South America flights probably comes from local customers or customers whose itinerary is not pro-rated over a transpacific leg. And finally, GRU is served very well from NRT via many, many 1-stop options. What's so magical about Miami?
airbazar wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
Your argument falls apart a bit. the O/D between MIA and Sao Paulo is much larger than between DFW And MIA.

Great, then nothing else matters so how is my argument falling apart?
My assumption was that since there are multiple flights between DFW and NRT and none between MIA and NRT, that DFW-NRT was a bigger market. But if it's not, even better for MIA.

Engineers are known for their precision, this represents a lack of precision.
jasoncrh wrote:
Also, why do you capitalize the word "world"? It's not a proper noun, and does not need to be capitalized.

Because I feel like it. I'm an engineer so shoot me.

It is in AA's interest to get the most amount of revenue possible for the MIA - GRU/EZE/GIG segments. Those flights are not in any revenue share / JV with JAL. The most amount of revenue for those MIA - South America flights probably comes from local customers or customers whose itinerary is not pro-rated over a transpacific leg.
jasoncrh wrote:
AA's and JL's joint venture does NOT included South America, by the way. AA has no incentive to make inventory available to incoming passengers from Tokyo when they can probably get higher fares for those same seats from local people in Miami going to Sao Paulo

It's in AA's best interest to make inventory for JL's passengers so they don't go with another competing airline and it helps the JV in the NRT-US leg.

GRU is served very well from NRT via many, many 1-stop options. What's so magical about Miami?
c933103 wrote:
JAL used to fly to GRU. But it have already been cut due to its performance. And it was just about 2 weekly before they cut it

Alliances made the need to fly with own metal irrelevant. Same reason why LH doesn't fly to Australia for example and it's not for lack of traffic. It doesn't change the fact that GRU is the largest market from Tokyo.[/quote]
 
MAH4546
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 8:48 pm

A Miami-Tokyo flight is to serve the large local market between Miami - and Florida - and Asia. That's it. Sure, some people will connect to Nassau or Lima or Guatemala City - but that's not what drives any trans-Pacific flight from Miami.
a.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 8:50 pm

In theory, yes. For it to work, it needs to work on the strength of the Miami - Japan and beyond market. TBD about whether it will. So far, nobody has stepped up to the plate.

MAH4546 wrote:
A Miami-Tokyo flight is to serve the large local market between Miami - and Florida - and Asia. That's it. Sure, some people will connect to Nassau or Lima or Guatemala City - but that's not what drives any trans-Pacific flight from Miami.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Thu May 03, 2018 9:17 pm

airbazar wrote:
janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example..

...At MIA you have multiple other frequencies to get re-booked on, for the same day...

I agree with this, since latam and AA codeshare as well, so if aa cant book you on any of their flights on MIA, they can do it on LATAM instead, be it on MIA-GRU, or MIA-BOG-GRU, depending of the needs.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 1:29 am

MAH4546 wrote:
A Miami-Tokyo flight is to serve the large local market between Miami - and Florida - and Asia. That's it. Sure, some people will connect to Nassau or Lima or Guatemala City - but that's not what drives any trans-Pacific flight from Miami.

I agree. I think the main issue is what the city wants may run counter to what AA wants. I think AA much prefers to have that MIA traffic connect through its already established Transpacific hubs. And I only use AA as it’s the local legacy hub airline and should be getting the bulk of the local traffic.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 2:39 am

Start of new ULH routes is going to depend a lot on short-term projections of fuel prices. What's JAL's thinking on the topic? Have they announced significant hedging?
 
simfanatic
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 4:47 am

evank516 wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Birdwatching wrote:
With all due respect, MIA is mostly a tourism destination, how can a nonstop to Tokyo be justified? There are lots of excellent one-stop connections with a short stop that is almost exactly under the flight path, like Chicago. It seems to me that Airliners.net is full of threads discussing MIA to Singapore, Japan, China, Middle East... apart from DOH none of that has ever become reality?


EK has made FLL work pretty fine, and that's even more of a tourist destination.


I think EK made FLL work because of their partnership with B6, which I'm fairly certain is why they chose FLL over MIA.


That, I think and the Fact that EK basically connects every destination with every other destination via DXB. Their network globally is in a completely different dimension thancompared to JL's.

But while we're at it, why isn't there a direct MIA-DPS link? My neighbour would buy a ticket there so it has to work... :roll:
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 5:30 am

c933103 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example..

By that logic there would be no non-stop routes ever between any 2 points on the globe because there is always a better 1-stop option. :banghead:
GRU is Japan's largest market in Latin America. There are very few hubs in the World that offer more than 1 daily OW frequency to GRU. Moreover, JL and AA have a joint venture. Few hubs in the world would offer JL's customers better connectivity to Latin America than MIA. DFW can possibly match it but if the DFW O&D is already large enough neither AA not JL will want to route connecting pax via DFW. Hence why JL is rumored to be looking at MIA, IMO. Another problem for JL: Their schedule to DFW is really bad for connections to their largest Latin America market, GRU. From MIA, AA has 3 daily flights to GRU vs only 1 daily from DFW. You miss the DFW connection and you're screwed. In fact, you miss your connection at many of those multiple 1-stop hubs and you're screwed. At MIA you have multiple other frequencies to get re-booked on, for the same day.
JL to MIA is a matter of when, not if. And it's way overdue if you ask me. Their 8-abreast 788 is perfect to start a route like this.

JAL used to fly to GRU. But it have already been cut due to its performance. And it was just about 2 weekly before they cut it


The key thing that really hurts JL's NRT-JFK-GRU was that post-9/11 visa restriction. It was all downhill from there, although it took JL another 9 years (2010) to finally axed that route as part of their bankruptcy restructuring (and you wonder why JL declared bankruptcy). Basically the transit traffic shifted over to Europe, Middle East, or even Canada.

BTW LAX was the preferred gateway for Varig and VASP back when they fly to Japan (Varig fly NRT-LAX-GRU/GIG/LIM, VASP fly KIX-LAX-GRU IIRC).
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 6:19 am

My question would be this:

What has changed that would make an airline fly MIA-NRT that previously didn't exist? AA and JL have had planes that can fly MIA-NRT for years. Whats different now that didn't exist for the last 10 years or so?

Connections would have to be the icing on the cake for a route like this. MIA brings very little to the table in terms of connections that DFW, LAX, JFK, and ORD don't already have. DFW serves more cities within Florida than MIA does. This will have to be about the MIA local market.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 9:08 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
What has changed that would make an airline fly MIA-NRT that previously didn't exist? AA and JL have had planes that can fly MIA-NRT for years. Whats different now that didn't exist for the last 10 years or so?

Same things that make essentially every new overseas flight that wasn't viable before, viable now:
more efficient longhaul aircraft + market growth
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 9:30 am

LAX772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
What has changed that would make an airline fly MIA-NRT that previously didn't exist? AA and JL have had planes that can fly MIA-NRT for years. Whats different now that didn't exist for the last 10 years or so?

Same things that make essentially every new overseas flight that wasn't viable before, viable now:
more efficient longhaul aircraft + market growth


It wouldn't have anything to do with the aircraft. Thats been around for too long.

That leaves only local market growth. Has the market matured in recent years?
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c933103
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 10:48 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
What has changed that would make an airline fly MIA-NRT that previously didn't exist? AA and JL have had planes that can fly MIA-NRT for years. Whats different now that didn't exist for the last 10 years or so?

Same things that make essentially every new overseas flight that wasn't viable before, viable now:
more efficient longhaul aircraft + market growth


It wouldn't have anything to do with the aircraft. Thats been around for too long.

That leaves only local market growth. Has the market matured in recent years?

Airlines around the world are still taking delivery of new generation aircrafts that they might not have enough of them to start new routes even if they might want to do so earlier?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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FSDan
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 2:55 pm

From past MIA-Asia threads, my memory is that the top 3 Pacific O&D markets from MIA are actually TPE, MNL, and HKG (not necessarily in that order). With well-timed connections JL could feasibly serve those markets in addition to whatever demand there is for MIA-TYO, but the question is whether the yields would be worth it. At least for MNL and TPE there aren't great existing one-stop options, but they are also likely low yielding markets. For HKG, would JL be able to offer a better one-stop experience than the existing options? Today, premium travelers would likely go with AA via DFW or UA via ORD, or perhaps even AC via YYZ. MIA-NRT-HKG actually has a longer great circle distance than any of those existing options...
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winginit
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 4:58 pm

janders wrote:
The concept that Miami is the gateway to Latin America is not much an argument for a Far East carrier.
The major cities of Latin America can be reached 1-stop today via a host of means - be it via other North American cities, or the other way around via the Middle East for example.

Ultimately any Far East service will be made or broken on Miami itself - whether it can generate the traffic and revenue mix to make the route viable.

Anyhow, for JAL specifically as we know they are not only a pretty conservative company, but they just weeks ago announced their 2018-2019 business plan and only new route plans was a West Coast flight which we have since learned to be Seattle.


:checkmark:

gatibosgru wrote:
I've missed the MIA-Asia threads!


:checkmark: :checkmark:

In my mind just fluffy pie in the sky statements with little risk if it doesn't come true, which it won't for the plethora of reasons that have been brought up already. Delta had their Global Sales Conference in Miami this week and American has theirs in San Juan next week with a majority of that traffic coming via Miami, so likely just a well timed hail mary by a tourism chief in hopes that the words inspire a network planner to take yet another look at the prospect of MIA-TPAC.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Fri May 04, 2018 5:46 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
What has changed that would make an airline fly MIA-NRT that previously didn't exist? AA and JL have had planes that can fly MIA-NRT for years. Whats different now that didn't exist for the last 10 years or so?

Same things that make essentially every new overseas flight that wasn't viable before, viable now:
more efficient longhaul aircraft + market growth

It wouldn't have anything to do with the aircraft. Thats been around for too long.

That's a lofty assumption; and a rather fallacious one at that, seeing as it ignores opportunity cost + projected risk.

Just because an airline has a next-generation aircraft in its possession, doesn't mean it's immediately going to put it into a new/undeveloped market.

BA had 787s for years before trying a route like LHR-MSY, which by their own statement to the tourism board has "exceeded our every expectation."

UA had 787s for years before trying routes like LAX/SFO-SIN.

DL has ten A350s in its possession with several more soon-to-be delivered, yet it hasn't started/resumed (nor even announced an intention to launch) any new/unserved route with them yet.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6352
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Sat May 05, 2018 12:32 am

LAX772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Same things that make essentially every new overseas flight that wasn't viable before, viable now:
more efficient longhaul aircraft + market growth

It wouldn't have anything to do with the aircraft. Thats been around for too long.

That's a lofty assumption; and a rather fallacious one at that, seeing as it ignores opportunity cost + projected risk.

Just because an airline has a next-generation aircraft in its possession, doesn't mean it's immediately going to put it into a new/undeveloped market.

BA had 787s for years before trying a route like LHR-MSY, which by their own statement to the tourism board has "exceeded our every expectation."

UA had 787s for years before trying routes like LAX/SFO-SIN.

DL has ten A350s in its possession with several more soon-to-be delivered, yet it hasn't started/resumed (nor even announced an intention to launch) any new/unserved route with them yet.


No sir. Not the same thing. You’re making the assumption that local markets didn’t change. Dynamics in the California-Singapore market have changed greatly in that time frame. SQ forced UAs hand on that launch. As for LAX-SIN, I’d be shocked if UA is making any money on that one given the fares.

We’re talking about two hub to hub markets that exist on a JV. Routes like LHR-MSY/AUS and NRT-SAN are niche markets.

The Delta reference is irrelevant. They’ve had the planes for only a year. There is a difference between having a next generation plane for one year and ten years.

What we’ve seen is the 787 being used on existing routes far more than to start new routes. They’re being seen more as a 767/777 replacement in North American markets.

That brings me back to the question of what has changed in the local market.
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AirAfreak
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Sat May 05, 2018 2:15 am

JAL will announce the resumption of Washington/Dulles before Miami is confirmed, if ever, within this decade.

Sometimes, I miss the “DC-9 retirement” threads. *sigh*
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B752OS
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Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Sat May 05, 2018 2:51 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
It wouldn't have anything to do with the aircraft. Thats been around for too long.

That's a lofty assumption; and a rather fallacious one at that, seeing as it ignores opportunity cost + projected risk.

Just because an airline has a next-generation aircraft in its possession, doesn't mean it's immediately going to put it into a new/undeveloped market.

BA had 787s for years before trying a route like LHR-MSY, which by their own statement to the tourism board has "exceeded our every expectation."

UA had 787s for years before trying routes like LAX/SFO-SIN.

DL has ten A350s in its possession with several more soon-to-be delivered, yet it hasn't started/resumed (nor even announced an intention to launch) any new/unserved route with them yet.


No sir. Not the same thing. You’re making the assumption that local markets didn’t change. Dynamics in the California-Singapore market have changed greatly in that time frame. SQ forced UAs hand on that launch. As for LAX-SIN, I’d be shocked if UA is making any money on that one given the fares.

We’re talking about two hub to hub markets that exist on a JV. Routes like LHR-MSY/AUS and NRT-SAN are niche markets.

The Delta reference is irrelevant. They’ve had the planes for only a year. There is a difference between having a next generation plane for one year and ten years.

What we’ve seen is the 787 being used on existing routes far more than to start new routes. They’re being seen more as a 767/777 replacement in North American markets.

That brings me back to the question of what has changed in the local market.


Curious, if NRT-SAN is a niche market, why did JL opt to send their 787s there instead if MIA?
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3600
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Japan Airlines To Miami By Next Year?

Sat May 05, 2018 2:56 am

B752OS wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's a lofty assumption; and a rather fallacious one at that, seeing as it ignores opportunity cost + projected risk.

Just because an airline has a next-generation aircraft in its possession, doesn't mean it's immediately going to put it into a new/undeveloped market.

BA had 787s for years before trying a route like LHR-MSY, which by their own statement to the tourism board has "exceeded our every expectation."

UA had 787s for years before trying routes like LAX/SFO-SIN.

DL has ten A350s in its possession with several more soon-to-be delivered, yet it hasn't started/resumed (nor even announced an intention to launch) any new/unserved route with them yet.


No sir. Not the same thing. You’re making the assumption that local markets didn’t change. Dynamics in the California-Singapore market have changed greatly in that time frame. SQ forced UAs hand on that launch. As for LAX-SIN, I’d be shocked if UA is making any money on that one given the fares.

We’re talking about two hub to hub markets that exist on a JV. Routes like LHR-MSY/AUS and NRT-SAN are niche markets.

The Delta reference is irrelevant. They’ve had the planes for only a year. There is a difference between having a next generation plane for one year and ten years.

What we’ve seen is the 787 being used on existing routes far more than to start new routes. They’re being seen more as a 767/777 replacement in North American markets.

That brings me back to the question of what has changed in the local market.


Curious, if NRT-SAN is a niche market, why did JL opt to send their 787s there instead if MIA?


Bc NRT-MIA is even more of a niche market?

And quite frankly, SAN is a much shorter route than MIA, with a much larger Asian presence (people and business) compare to MIA, and god knows, maybe people in OC go down that way instead of going up to LAX (I've no clue whether it is remotely true). It is also why PDX manage to still sustain that NRT flight anyway.

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