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Stitch
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 8:48 pm

Emirates and Etihad ordered the 777X together to maximize their bargaining power with Boeing as a launch customer. So while I could certainly see them deferring their initial deliveries, if they cancel outright they may lose that pricing should they come back later and re-order.

I expect the 787 order to be the "safest" since they have a score of 787-9 in service and their first 787-10 is due for production this year so they should have BFE already produced for it. That being said, I could see them also deferring deliveries scheduled for 2H 2019 and beyond.

The A350 is probably at the most risk in that I don't see any frames in the Planespotters.net firing order, though Wiki says they will get their first A350-1000 this year which would mean that frame would have BFE already purchased like their 787-10.
 
Planesmart
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 8:49 pm

Boeing has been in discussions with 777X customers for over a year firming deliveries. Seems customers want initial tranches asap, then drip feed the balance of orders, the exact opposite to how a new model production ramps up.

ME3 777X orders are the last with soft T&C's, at pricing widely believed to be close to or below cost.

Will changes to timing and numbers trigger/permit T&C re-write, and re-pricing too. If yes, how many orders will disappear? Will Etihad and other customers take the opportunity to exit cheaply (free?), hoping they can get back on board later, still at highly competitive prices. Do the soft T&C's permit customers to sell orders to other end user customers with no price escalation, so EK can acquire? Would Boeing want the order book even more dominated by EK?

Other makes and models are going to cost Etihad more to cancel, so the 777X seems likely.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 9:32 pm

They should keep the 26 A321neo, 22 A35K, 41 789, 30 78J and 10 A388. 129 highly efficient aircraft of differing sizes and capabilities.

Cancel the 40 A359 and 25 777X.

That will be a very sensible fleet where both manufacturers benefit and take a knock.
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
Eyad89
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 9:54 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Good lord... as always, people are now posting their favorite outcome as if we could influence the decision by the number of posts in favor of one aircraft...



It’s not favorite, it’s logical. If an airline ia struggling to sell their seats or make a profit, isn’t cancelling the most expensive frame to operate the right thing to do?

It’s very simple, 779 makes sense if you can fill it more than you can fill 787s or A350s, and EY does not seem to be able to do that.

A350 would also get a few cancellations, but I would be surprised if they cancelled all 62.
 
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rotating14
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 9:54 pm

Stitch wrote:
Emirates and Etihad ordered the 777X together to maximize their bargaining power with Boeing as a launch customer. So while I could certainly see them deferring their initial deliveries, if they cancel outright they may lose that pricing should they come back later and re-order.

I expect the 787 order to be the "safest" since they have a score of 787-9 in service and their first 787-10 is due for production this year so they should have BFE already produced for it. That being said, I could see them also deferring deliveries scheduled for 2H 2019 and beyond.

The A350 is probably at the most risk in that I don't see any frames in the Planespotters.net firing order, though Wiki says they will get their first A350-1000 this year which would mean that frame would have BFE already purchased like their 787-10.



Qatar Airways, not Ethiad, jointly negotiated said 777x deal.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 9:56 pm

george77300 wrote:
They are a premium airline still. (One of the only with first and business in B787).

As do most "premium" airlines on most aircraft, for that matter.

In he days of lie-flat Business: First is an increasingly superfluous market oddity, not a market demand, for even the highest end carriers.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Arion640
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 10:21 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
They should keep the 26 A321neo, 22 A35K, 41 789, 30 78J and 10 A388. 129 highly efficient aircraft of differing sizes and capabilities.

Cancel the 40 A359 and 25 777X.

That will be a very sensible fleet where both manufacturers benefit and take a knock.


Personally I think all A350's and 777X's need to come out of the equation. The 77W's can cover the 787-9/10 to A380 gap.
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Stitch
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 10:47 pm

rotating14 wrote:
Qatar Airways, not Ethiad, jointly negotiated said 777x deal.


Fair enough, though they did launch the frame as well so one imagines they secured a good price.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad rumoured for announcement to cancel/defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:05 pm

sibibom wrote:
Probably defer most of B787, definitely cancel B777X.

Cancel A350? defer A321NEO

An early post that sums it up well.
With the established A320 fleet, we'll see A321NEOs enter the fleet.
With the established 787 fleet, we will continue to see more A350s.

Reports of deferred A350s.

I cannot see how they could accept 777Xs. :cry:

I cannot see how they can accept A350s.

Both 787 and A350 delivery rates will be slowed.

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RainerBoeing777
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:07 pm

It makes more sense to keep the Boeing 777x, EY is going through bad times but a good restructuring, could return to the long-range market and return routes such as Perth, Sao Paulo and San Francisco, the production of the A350 goes as very slow if deferred some of these planes could take longer to arrive, it is better to work with an Airbus A321neo / Boeing 787-9 / 10 / Boeing 777x and Airbus A380
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kevin5345179
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:25 pm

Stitch wrote:
Emirates and Etihad ordered the 777X together to maximize their bargaining power with Boeing as a launch customer. So while I could certainly see them deferring their initial deliveries, if they cancel outright they may lose that pricing should they come back later and re-order.

I expect the 787 order to be the "safest" since they have a score of 787-9 in service and their first 787-10 is due for production this year so they should have BFE already produced for it. That being said, I could see them also deferring deliveries scheduled for 2H 2019 and beyond.

The A350 is probably at the most risk in that I don't see any frames in the Planespotters.net firing order, though Wiki says they will get their first A350-1000 this year which would mean that frame would have BFE already purchased like their 787-10.


This is because the parts haven't arrived yet ..... First frame is going to be MSN 290 and so far the parts are still arriving for MSN 244 .......
 
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lightsaber
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:29 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Good lord... as always, people are now posting their favorite outcome as if we could influence the decision by the number of posts in favor of one aircraft...



It’s not favorite, it’s logical. If an airline ia struggling to sell their seats or make a profit, isn’t cancelling the most expensive frame to operate the right thing to do?

It’s very simple, 779 makes sense if you can fill it more than you can fill 787s or A350s, and EY does not seem to be able to do that.

A350 would also get a few cancellations, but I would be surprised if they cancelled all 62.

Oh, some of the posts have been mixed.

I think we can take a step back, the 777X doesn't make sense.

Only one more mid-size aircraft to accept. Either the 787 or A350. Both sides will find logical reasons for one or the other.

The only aircraft we can be certain about is the A321. Cest la vie.


What we know is that EY must consolidate.

Lightsaber
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StudiodeKadent
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Sun May 06, 2018 11:48 pm

I have to agree the 777X being cancelled seems the most likely.

A350s could get pretty much anywhere Etihad need. If Etihad really need, say, AUH - AKL or maybe some routes in South America, the A350-900ULR might be a more reasonable solution for them over the 777-8.

Etihad really were exciting previously but now the costs are being cut and the "failed ambition" is mounting, which really is sad. They had some fantastic ideas.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:06 am

I could see the 777X and A35Ks going
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gatibosgru
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:07 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
It makes more sense to keep the Boeing 777x, EY is going through bad times but a good restructuring, could return to the long-range market and return routes such as Perth, Sao Paulo and San Francisco, the production of the A350 goes as very slow if deferred some of these planes could take longer to arrive, it is better to work with an Airbus A321neo / Boeing 787-9 / 10 / Boeing 777x and Airbus A380


Aren't all of these perfectly doable with an 789?
@DadCelo
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 2:25 am

they should be able to re-sell their 777X at a price higher then the costs with the launch discount,
unless the contract prohibited them to do so
 
kevin5345179
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 3:27 am

hongkongflyer wrote:
they should be able to re-sell their 777X at a price higher then the costs with the launch discount,
unless the contract prohibited them to do so


may I ask who is interested in taking over ?
 
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MoKa777
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 4:33 am

Arion640 wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
They should keep the 26 A321neo, 22 A35K, 41 789, 30 78J and 10 A388. 129 highly efficient aircraft of differing sizes and capabilities.

Cancel the 40 A359 and 25 777X.

That will be a very sensible fleet where both manufacturers benefit and take a knock.


Personally I think all A350's and 777X's need to come out of the equation. The 77W's can cover the 787-9/10 to A380 gap.


The 77W was first delivered to EY in 2006. That makes the first examples 12-13 years old - exactly the age at which the ME3/SQ start replacing aircraft.

EY's first A35K is expected late this year or early next year (I'm not entirely sure).

They are also expected to take their first 78J this year.

The A35K and 78J are, therefore, more "current" in the production/delivery schedule than the A359 and 777X and will be harder to drop.

The A35K can efficiently replace the 77W that is up for replacement anyway (based on their neighbour's and peer's replacement schedules that I believe they will likely follow).

The 787s still on order will be joining an established 787 fleet and are of a reasonable size.

Unlike EK, they really don't need the heavy lift of the 777X.

Also, having just 26 A321neos and 10 A388s in a fleet that also includes 71 787s and 19 77Ws is not sensible from a political perspective. The ME3 tend to keep things fairly equal between the two OEMs.
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SQ789
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 4:41 am

Looks like they will cancel all the A320neo's and A350's order and defers their remaining widebody's deliveries. Otherwise they may cancel all except for the 787.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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seahawk
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 4:54 am

The 777X is still a few years out, so it will be the easiest order to defer. The 787 are in production, so they will most likely be kept.

That leaves the A350 as expendable. The A321NEOs are also not needed, considering the CEO fleet is not that old.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 5:31 am

As I said above ;-)
 
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MoKa777
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:08 am

gatibosgru wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
It makes more sense to keep the Boeing 777x, EY is going through bad times but a good restructuring, could return to the long-range market and return routes such as Perth, Sao Paulo and San Francisco, the production of the A350 goes as very slow if deferred some of these planes could take longer to arrive, it is better to work with an Airbus A321neo / Boeing 787-9 / 10 / Boeing 777x and Airbus A380


Aren't all of these perfectly doable with an 789?


These routes are perfectly doable with the 789. Perth can probably be done with the 78J as well.

They don't need the heavy lift capability of EK. Not for many years to come, at least. Instead they should work on streamlining their fleet and operations.
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
Strato2
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:36 am

It seems the predictions to what will be cancelled and what will be kept are based on fanboyism towards ones chosen manufacturer. Almost like "analysis" at few blogs out there.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:36 am

They need to do some serious soul-searching and figure out what they can do better/differently than EK and QR.
The O&D from AbuDhabi is much smaller than Dubai's. Competitive disadvantage number one.
Without a myriad of 380s, they cannot achieve EK's critical mass and CASM. Competitive disadvantage number 2.
They could still focus on connections at AbuDhabi but between fewer destinations, at better times, including smaller second tier cities (hence the Airbus 321s), in a less crowded environment, and offer a better overall passenger experience.
 
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seahawk
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:47 am

Indeed the fleet of single aisle jets is an advantage but EK has FlyDubai and QR has their own single aisle fleet. The big question is what EY can offer that would give them a unique position.
 
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cougar15
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:50 am

Noticed DUS has been downgraded to 330 as well. And I thought they were actually earning money in Germany and the UK. Worst thing is, Pilots are on unpaid leave and that especially hit a few of the former AB guys who only just got there......basically going home 6 or so weeks later. And local politics make the whole thing even worse, EK is screaming for Jockeys, but the ´my sandpit, your sandpit´ (literally, kids in the sandpit) local thinking prevents a solution that would be a good resolution for both ends! Guess they really should merge, but hang on..... toys in the pram/sandpit........!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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seahawk
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 6:53 am

cougar15 wrote:
Noticed DUS has been downgraded to 330 as well. And I thought they were actually earning money in Germany and the UK. Worst thing is, Pilots are on unpaid leave and that especially hit a few of the former AB guys who only just got there......basically going home 6 or so weeks later. And local politics make the whole thing even worse, EK is screaming for Jockeys, but the ´my sandpit, your sandpit´ (literally, kids in the sandpit) local thinking prevents a solution that would be a good resolution for both ends! Guess they really should merge, but hang on..... toys in the pram/sandpit........!


If the A332 are really going to Eurowings they will be used to compete with EY from DUS. EW is starting Thailand in June and probably looking at other Asian destination that once had been money makers for LTU/AB before EY took control and ended the non-stop flights.
 
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cougar15
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 7:15 am

seahawk wrote:
cougar15 wrote:
Noticed DUS has been downgraded to 330 as well. And I thought they were actually earning money in Germany and the UK. Worst thing is, Pilots are on unpaid leave and that especially hit a few of the former AB guys who only just got there......basically going home 6 or so weeks later. And local politics make the whole thing even worse, EK is screaming for Jockeys, but the ´my sandpit, your sandpit´ (literally, kids in the sandpit) local thinking prevents a solution that would be a good resolution for both ends! Guess they really should merge, but hang on..... toys in the pram/sandpit........!


If the A332 are really going to Eurowings they will be used to compete with EY from DUS. EW is starting Thailand in June and probably looking at other Asian destination that once had been money makers for LTU/AB before EY took control and ended the non-stop flights.


With you, it will make things interesting, but after the serious bad wrap EW got in the local (especially NRW) press for their screw-ups , I still see people prepared to go with another carrier and pay a few Euro extra, rather than go EW! I know especially in the CGN populous have their view on EW after the last few years of experiences outa of Köln (CGN), which we know were not pretty from a service delivery perspective.
But before we thread drift to much, you mentioned something that is new to me, that is that EW is looking at the EY 330´s .
I did not know that, so very relevant to this thread! IF EY has a new home for those, their fleet requirements at least have a little merit! Guess that Merkel and Spohr´s visit to AUH resulted n something, even if the AB scenario did not work as all had expected.......
I also see the 77X being the first to go and agree with other posters, the 350 may also face issues. 787 not so and the 321N´s make a whole lot of sense right now!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
Waterbomber
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 7:16 am

EY need to review their yield management strategy. The ME3 used to offer the lowest fares along with TK and SU.
Not anymore on Europe-Asia routes where OW and Star A airlines are pricing themselves very competitively and the new challengers from China.
A 2 billion USD loss at times that most airlines are making profits is a good reason to do that.

A321neo to Europe and Africa, light widebodies to Asia, the heavy widebodies to the U.S.
Fill the planes with little to no margin, but fill them.
 
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cougar15
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 7:29 am

Waterbomber wrote:
EY need to review their yield management strategy. The ME3 used to offer the lowest fares along with TK and SU.
Not anymore on Europe-Asia routes where OW and Star A airlines are pricing themselves very competitively and the new challengers from China.
A 2 billion USD loss at times that most airlines are making profits is a good reason to do that.

A321neo to Europe and Africa, light widebodies to Asia, the heavy widebodies to the U.S.
Fill the planes with little to no margin, but fill them.


But, just to be fair, don´t those $2BIO also include the mess that is/was Etihad Partners? And was the real issue not Hogan with his swollen head, who basically did a ´Swissair 2.0´? I don´t think EY mainline was in that much bother, and know for sure their Cargo Ops was growing, but given the whole ´Partner´ and bad investment scenario, a lot of things had to give/go short term. Without those bad investments, I am sure business units would have had opportunity to mature as they were slowly growing. Cargo was one of those, but of course, once the (post Hogan) firefighters came out, a lot of mid/long term strategies were sent south!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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Jayafe
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:06 am

hongkongflyer wrote:
they should be able to re-sell their 777X at a price higher then the costs...


Reselling them to all the customers that are waiting outside Boeing in a queue to order it?
 
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seahawk
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:08 am

10 Airbus A320neo
26 Airbus A321neo
40 Airbus A350-900
22 Airbus A350-1000
1 Boeing 777-300ER
8 Boeing 777-8X
17 Boeing 777-9X
24 Boeing 787-8
30 Boeing 787-9

From that list the 777-8 looks like a prime target for cancellation. Then the 777-9s and A350s. The 787-8 only make sense if they have buyers for the A330s lined up otherwise those could fly a lot longer and would still be good enough for medium range routes. The 787-9 could be taken up later and replace the 777-300ERs. A320 could be in danger, A321 look necessary.
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 8:32 am

seahawk wrote:
10 Airbus A320neo
26 Airbus A321neo
40 Airbus A350-900
22 Airbus A350-1000
1 Boeing 777-300ER
8 Boeing 777-8X
17 Boeing 777-9X
24 Boeing 787-8
30 Boeing 787-9

From that list the 777-8 looks like a prime target for cancellation. Then the 777-9s and A350s. The 787-8 only make sense if they have buyers for the A330s lined up otherwise those could fly a lot longer and would still be good enough for medium range routes. The 787-9 could be taken up later and replace the 777-300ERs. A320 could be in danger, A321 look necessary.


That list has been updated; Etihad doesn't have any -8s on order. It should be 24 787-9s and 30 787-10s.

I'm expecting the following things:

* Cancellation of the B777X
* Cancellation of the A350-900
* Cancellation or at least deferral of the B787-10

I'm not so sure about their narrowbodies though...

Cheers!
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Slash787
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 10:22 am

I hope they don't cancel the B787-10.
 
chiki
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:00 am

the 787-10 will stay will cover most of their Europe and Asia and Africa routes
 
Egerton
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:24 am

I wonder if Etihad might sensibly sell their A380's to IAG?
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:41 am

Cancel the 787-9 and -10 order altogehter and sell the existing -9 fleet on the market, full replacement with the A350-900/1000 fleet.

Furthermore getting rid of the 777X - or at least delay it.

Or...
Or...
Or...

Might not be the obivous ones. Might as well be a question if something moves in the secondary market, if lessor are at play, ...
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
 
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Slash787
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:48 am

In these hard times, Etihad needs a MoM
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 11:52 am

george77300 wrote:
Source: https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/993132805658902528

Latest: #UAE’s @EtihadAirways are tipped to be making an announcement soon, to cancel airliner aircraft Etihad currently on order, defer deliveries/reduce future orders
It’s as management try to overcome the $2 billion loss the Abu Dhabi state-owned carrier has suffered


If AlexInAir got this from the Reuters article, then it's really bad form to tweet this as news without crediting the original source.
 
bunumuring
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:08 pm

Hey guys,
Etihad has a stake in Virgin Australia, who will need a new widebody type to replace their 777-300ERs and A330-200s in the medium term. VA have publicly stated that they'll more than likely choose one type of WB to replace both types, but won't be seriously looking for a little while yet as they are still financially weak. Perhaps if Etihad can't get out of all of their orders, they could do some kind of deal to offload some of these orders for either the 787 or the A350 to VA? The 777X would appear to be too big for VA and the A321neo probably of no interest to VA in light of their (already delayed) order for 40 x MAXs.
I think it's unlikely that Etihad would shift orders to VA but... Offered the right deal, Singapore Airlines, HNA (also reportedly in the financial 'spotlight') and the other shareholders just might take advantage to re-equip VA and make it more competitive.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
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Jayafe
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:09 pm

Slash787 wrote:
In these hard times, Etihad needs a MoM


Indeed, a non existing plane that requires 0 investment would be a good choice. EY cant wait -5-8 years for the EIS of a supposed bird. It needs solutions, and need them now.
 
Bricktop
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:11 pm

Egerton wrote:
I wonder if Etihad might sensibly sell their A380's to IAG?

If BA could take all 10, that would indeed be a solution. I wouldn't think keeping less than 10 makes sense for EY, and
there wouldn't seem to be any other takers. It'd be a big downgauge to the 77W also, but I don't know how full
the A388s go out anyways.

But I think the first stage would be halting the bleeding by getting rid of future frames, then worrying about the stuff they have.
 
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glideslope
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 12:18 pm

There are both financial and political components to this. IMO, Boeing looses 10-789J/10-787K slots. Airbus looses 10 NEO and all 350K. No hit to the 359 or 777X.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 6488
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 1:00 pm

glideslope wrote:
There are both financial and political components to this. IMO, Boeing looses 10-789J/10-787K slots. Airbus looses 10 NEO and all 350K. No hit to the 359 or 777X.


All depends on how many they want to keep: you could also argue that all 777-8/9 are gone and 25 of the A350-9/10. Or all 777-8/9 and 10 787 and 35 A350's. From a pure political point of view. What is your case for the 777-8/9 remaining? The cheapest option, from an operational point of view, getting rid of an entire family which you don't have, so that means the 777-8/9 or A350, but I see more need for the A350 than the 777 in the line-up of Etihad.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 1:15 pm

Is this likely to be a purely Etihad matter, or is it with a view to a "merger" with Emirates?

If the latter then the decisions on cancellations / deferrals may well be different.
 
Arion640
Posts: 1833
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 1:25 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Egerton wrote:
I wonder if Etihad might sensibly sell their A380's to IAG?

If BA could take all 10, that would indeed be a solution. I wouldn't think keeping less than 10 makes sense for EY, and
there wouldn't seem to be any other takers. It'd be a big downgauge to the 77W also, but I don't know how full
the A388s go out anyways.

But I think the first stage would be halting the bleeding by getting rid of future frames, then worrying about the stuff they have.


Wrong engines. IAG would probably be willing to wait a bit longer for RR jets to come onto the market.
319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 738 744 752 753 763 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75.

Brexit - It’s time to take back control
 
mjoelnir
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 1:46 pm

Of the wide body frames, the 777-8/9 should be in the biggest danger of being outright canceled. The 777-9 is the biggest frame on order and the 777-8 will be an expensive frame to buy, fill and run. Not optimal frames when you are retrenching.
The 787 orders should be in the least danger, they have already a fleet and adding to it could be the lowest cost option regarding service and training.
The dark horse could be the A350, it offers more capacity and range than the 787. The A350-1000 could replace 777-300ER one to one.

The biggest danger for all wide body orders is how young the current fleet is. Etihad can fly its wide and narrow body fleets for quite a while without exchanging any frames. So I would see all orders to be deferred.
 
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frigatebird
Posts: 1467
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 2:14 pm

Stitch wrote:
Emirates and Etihad ordered the 777X together to maximize their bargaining power with Boeing as a launch customer. So while I could certainly see them deferring their initial deliveries, if they cancel outright they may lose that pricing should they come back later and re-order.

I expect the 787 order to be the "safest" since they have a score of 787-9 in service and their first 787-10 is due for production this year so they should have BFE already produced for it. That being said, I could see them also deferring deliveries scheduled for 2H 2019 and beyond.

The A350 is probably at the most risk in that I don't see any frames in the Planespotters.net firing order, though Wiki says they will get their first A350-1000 this year which would mean that frame would have BFE already purchased like their 787-10.


EY might even loose launch pricing when they defer aircraft, I heard both Boeing and Airbus seem to be less flexible in their contracts nowadays.

That being said, EY just parked their 77L fleet, acquired just a few years ago, meaning at least two things:
1. EY doesn't need the 777-8 any more, these were ordered as 77L replacement;
2. EY seems to be willing to incur huge one time write offs to get their act together, and probably have enough money through Abu Dhabi government funding to swallow cancellation penalties.

I'm not so totally sure as other posters the 777-9 will be axed though, these are 77W replacements and EY apparently can fill these. AMS will be upgraded from A330/787 to 77W this summer, as a result of high demand. OTOH, if they want to get rid of the 778 they may lose 779 pricing too, so EY might as well cancel the whole 777X order and bite the bullet losing their deposits.

I haven't seen anyone post this, but is the UFO order for 10x 777-9 not for EY as well?

Regarding the 787-10 and A350-1000, the first ones for EY are already in various stages of production, so probably not easy to cancel. The first A359 for EY is due about the same time as the first for AF, so they may be able to at least defer this one I think.

Etihad are laying off 5 people from their Amsterdam office and are moving to a less posh location, so I cannot imagine they will have to cut into their orderbook as well.
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PlanesNTrains
Posts: 8296
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 3:08 pm

Strato2 wrote:
It seems the predictions to what will be cancelled and what will be kept are based on fanboyism towards ones chosen manufacturer. Almost like "analysis" at few blogs out there.


Feel free to give us your take then. On the record.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
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kmz
Posts: 158
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Re: RUMOUR: Etihad going to announce to cancel & defer aircraft.

Mon May 07, 2018 3:45 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
It seems the predictions to what will be cancelled and what will be kept are based on fanboyism towards ones chosen manufacturer. Almost like "analysis" at few blogs out there.


Feel free to give us your take then. On the record.


Can't wait....

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