Announced internally today, a bunch of network changes happening to Mexico flying to better reflect passenger demand and profitability.


MEX (Mexico City)
Effective June 23, no longer offer weekly service between DEN and MEX
Effective August 20, reduce IAH-MEX service by one daily frequency
Effective October 4, United will increase EWR-MEX service to three times daily, while ending service between LAX-MEX.

BJX (Leon, Guanajuato)
Effective October 4, end twice-daily service between LAX and BJX.
Effective October 28 introduce new daily service between ORD and BJX

QRO (Queretaro)
Effective December 19, increase service to four times daily between IAH and QRO.

SLP (San Luis Potosi)
Effective December 19, upgauge IAH-SLP service from the 50-seat Embraer RJ145 to the 76-seat Embraer E175.

HUX (Huatulco)
Effective June 23, United will no longer offer service from IAH.

MZT (Mazatlán)
Effective August 18, United will no longer operate service between MZT and IAH and ORD.

VSA (Villahermosa)
Effective June 28, United will no longer operate service between IAH and VSA.

GDS to be updated in coming week.

I'm surprised they can't make DEN-MEX work.

Its sad to see the crown jewel of the pmCO network crumble.

DDR wrote:

I'm surprised they can't make DEN-MEX work.

Good news for AM.

Liberalization of the USA-MX air market and proliferation of Mexican LCCs, not to mention changing tourism dynamics, making Mexico a tough place for UA to compete.

Surprised to see LAXMEX cut.

So all that's left between the US and HUX is swift to STL and volaris to ORD, both only once weekly and seasonal....

TWA772LR wrote:

Its sad to see the crown jewel of the pmCO network crumble.

DDR wrote:

I'm surprised they can't make DEN-MEX work.

Good news for AM.

= I think the people smiling are AM. They are on top of their game and the sheer volume of quick changes they seem to be making in 2018 versus early years speak of it. I wonder if AM will make DEN-MEX year round. Surprised though of LAX-MEX exit. If AM can make it work with 6 daily and even AS with 2 daily (though, I don't think profitable), UA leaving is big.

Saludos,
Alex

TWA772LR wrote:

Its sad to see the crown jewel of the pmCO network crumble.

You mean all the E145s out of IAH? Add fuel prices going up again to market liberalization and the Delta/AM JV. This is quite the bundle of changes, however - not some fiddling around the edges.

DDR wrote:

I'm surprised they can't make DEN-MEX work.

Route has always struggled and come and gone several times. Its primarily a Mexico point of sale and seasonal (winter)

codc10 wrote:

Liberalization of the USA-MX air market and proliferation of Mexican LCCs, not to mention changing tourism dynamics, making Mexico a tough place for UA to compete.

codc10 wrote:

Surprised to see LAXMEX cut.

Yes shame as route has been flown for 27 odd years, but the market while being the largest Mexico-US city pair is full of capacity including several LCCs, and route no longer plays a network bridge between MEX and NRT for example that it once did.

DDR wrote:

I'm surprised they can't make DEN-MEX work.

Route has always struggled and come and gone several times. Its primarily a Mexico point of sale and seasonal (winter)

codc10 wrote:

Liberalization of the USA-MX air market and proliferation of Mexican LCCs, not to mention changing tourism dynamics, making Mexico a tough place for UA to compete.

codc10 wrote:

Surprised to see LAXMEX cut.

Yes shame as route has been flown for 27 odd years, but the market while being the largest Mexico-US city pair is full of capacity including several LCCs, and route no longer plays a network bridge between MEX and NRT for example that it once did.

What a shame. HUX is a great alternative to CUN/PVR but sadly doesn’t get the amount of traffic. I’ll miss this one for sure.

I think its more about how Mexican market has changed greatly in recent years with the proliferation of LCCs driving pricing.

Also, fact that oil now sits the highest point since 2014 not helping.

abrelosojos wrote:

[even AS with 2 daily (though, I don't think profitable),.

AS is ending the 2nd LAX flight and pulling out entirely on SAN-MEX

stl07 wrote:

So all that's left between the US and HUX is swift to STL and volaris to ORD, both only once weekly and seasonal....

Also SY to MSP.

The bright spot is EWR- MEX going three times daily. I remember when CO was operating daily DC-10s on EWR-MEX in the 1990s, replaced by the 757 when they first arrived.

LAXintl wrote:

Yes shame as route has been flown for 27 odd years, but the market while being the largest Mexico-US city pair is full of capacity including several LCCs, and route no longer plays a network bridge between MEX and NRT for example that it once did.

Out of curiosity what are the biggest Mexico-US routes?

ORD-MZT was subsidized by the resorts there and had a terrible LF, so likely they pulled the subsidy. IAH-MZT probably has very little high yield traffic.

I'm surprised at VSA being cut.

I'm not surprised at HUX. It was just 2x weekly E-175 this winter, what's the point?

ORD-BJX will be interesting.

Not directly related to this, I'm surprised the second frequency on ORD-MTY has stuck.

IAH-VSA surprises me. I guess obtaining oil in the Gulf isn't what it used to be. UA left CME too.

UPlog wrote:

Out of curiosity what are the biggest Mexico-US routes?

For 12-months ending Sept 2017.

1. LAX-MEX 1,190,680 +21%
2. IAH-MEX 841,069 +2%
3. GDL-LAX 819,310 -9%
4. JFK-MEX 807,213 +23%
5. ATL-CUN 747,174 +6%
6. LAX-CUN 732,154 +26%
7. JFK-CUN 728,616 +24%
8. DFW-CUN 721,250 +4%
9. MIA-MEX 706,052 -9%
10. IAH-CUN 676,738 +5%

=

Interesting to see how top markets are a tale of two worlds. CUN dominated by American tourist, and then markets like MEX&GDL with heavy ethnic focus.

BAINY3 wrote:

stl07 wrote:

So all that's left between the US and HUX is swift to STL and volaris to ORD, both only once weekly and seasonal....

Also SY to MSP.

I always forget about them haha. 3x weakly peak for an entire nation still appears like an abysmal service level

stl07 wrote:

BAINY3 wrote:

stl07 wrote:

So all that's left between the US and HUX is swift to STL and volaris to ORD, both only once weekly and seasonal....

Also SY to MSP.

I always forget about them haha. 3x weakly peak for an entire nation still appears like an abysmal service level

HUX is all For Canadians and Mexicans mainly...

Does this mean any unused MEX slots will be up for grabs??

well sad to see the LAX-BJX route end with United, but I've seen both Delta and United struggle with LCCs and Aeromexico getting involved in the route. I'm guessing the ORD-BJX route is gonna be operated by their EMBs.

janders wrote:

Interesting to see how top markets are a tale of two worlds. CUN dominated by American tourist, and then markets like MEX&GDL with heavy ethnic focus.

Not sure it as simple as that.

The CUN markets are most definitely tourism-driven and GDL-LAX is most definitely VFR. MEX is much more mixed with business (from both sides), tourism (primarily Mexican-originating), along with VFR.

Perhaps it might be better to say Mexico is a tale of three worlds: Mexico City, beach destinations, and all other cities.

janders wrote:

Interesting to see how top markets are a tale of two worlds. CUN dominated by American tourist, and then markets like MEX&GDL with heavy ethnic focus.

Not sure that they ethnic driven, MEX and GDL are major business centers.

Though very busy, LAX-MEX has been an interesting market. Always seems GDL has done better in regards to airlines keeping the frequencies up there. UA has flown this route for a long time with various schedules. It does seem like UA will concentrate more on the leisure markets in Mexico. I'm sure SFO-MEX works well for them. DL has gone back and forth a couple of times as AS has too. Since AA started, they have stayed put. DL is now operating one of the JV flights with AM. They are smart to stick with their refurbished A319s. Volaris and Interjet operate once or twice a day and that's it. I'm glad AS is back to flying this route though I wondered about the E75. I know they have very few in their fleet, but the 73G is a good aircraft for this market. Perhaps AS will downgauge from the 73H to the VX A319. AS is always good with up/downgauging flights according to demand.
I was hoping AS would add SJC-MEX, but now that AM will be adding this, I bet this will be doubtful?
Does LAX-BJX have too much capacity with UA (E75x2) AM (E90x1) and Volaris (A319/A320 varies) too much capacity?
Isn't MZT very seasonal?
LaxIntl, thanks for posting the top US-Markets. I was surprised LAX-CUN has more traffic than DFW/IAH with those being large transit hubs to Mexico.

I wonder if OAX will survive much longer

Several surprises here but at large is IAH to lose most destinations. IAH - VSA is a big surprise, used to be very busy route.
I have my doubts about LCC driven prices on hub airports, AM is still on the lead from the Mexican side, maybe United is loosing pax because of the absence of a local partner.

Looking at this from over the pond, tourism to Mexico is falling off a cliff, primarily due to the high crime rate, maybe that's having a knock on effect with the US passengers going there there as well now. Having been to Dominican Republic in January I would say that place with the amount of traffic into PUJ seems to be seeing the benefits of that. Just my 2 cents.

I think UA dropping LAX-MEX will also benefit AA. It's interesting that even though UA has been on the route a lot longer than AA, AA was able to outlast them.

Well with Viva Aerobus and Volaris both at LAX not surprising that the LAX flight is getting the axe.

LAXintl wrote:

UPlog wrote:

Out of curiosity what are the biggest Mexico-US routes?

For 12-months ending Sept 2017.

1. LAX-MEX 1,190,680 +21%
2. IAH-MEX 841,069 +2%
3. GDL-LAX 819,310 -9%
4. JFK-MEX 807,213 +23%
5. ATL-CUN 747,174 +6%
6. LAX-CUN 732,154 +26%
7. JFK-CUN 728,616 +24%
8. DFW-CUN 721,250 +4%
9. MIA-MEX 706,052 -9%
10. IAH-CUN 676,738 +5%

=

Note that only one MIA route on the list

So UA is retrenching to beach markets only from LAX: SJD, PVR, and CUN.

Sad to see HUX and VSA cut from IAH. I'd guess AM will be the primary benefactor since many people will now need to connect through MEX to reach those destinations from points in the U.S.

About time a carrier flies ORD-BJX nonstop. Last flights were on Mexicana with a stop in MTY. There’s definitely demand, I’m sure bookings will be healthy.

I'm shocked IAH-HAV is getting increased, I would have thought that would have performed much worse than these Mexico routes.

Tailwinds13 wrote:

About time a carrier flies ORD-BJX nonstop. Last flights were on Mexicana with a stop in MTY. There’s definitely demand, I’m sure bookings will be healthy.

Ohhh yeah. Outside LA and Houston, Chicago is the next biggest city for demand to Mexico. Even more than DFW or NYC.

Regarding CUN-GDL-MEX, as previously stated CUN is virtually all US point of sale with tourist. GDL overall is pretty heavy with VFR/ethnic flow as GDL serves as gateway to neighboring states for significant Mexican population in the US. MEX on the otherhand is more balanced and diverse in customer base but tends to book heavier with Mexico point of sale.

UAL777UK wrote:

Looking at this from over the pond, tourism to Mexico is falling off a cliff, primarily due to the high crime rate, maybe that's having a knock on effect with the US passengers going there there as well now. Having been to Dominican Republic in January I would say that place with the amount of traffic into PUJ seems to be seeing the benefits of that. Just my 2 cents.

This perception hardly reflects reality. Tourism to Mexico, in reality, is booming, and they set an international arrivals record in 2017 with 39.3mil visitors, up 12 percent year over year.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-0 ... 993890.htm

As far air traffic from the US specifically, Mexico saw solid 9% growth in enplanements in 2017 as well.

Even UK visitors was up 3.5% during the year

http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/RAT/RAT-2017-12(EN).pdf

FSDan wrote:

So UA is retrenching to beach markets only from LAX: SJD, PVR, and CUN.

Sad to see HUX and VSA cut from IAH. I'd guess AM will be the primary benefactor since many people will now need to connect through MEX to reach those destinations from points in the U.S.

That seems to indicate ua has lost out to aa and dl in corporate markets in la area.

LAXintl wrote:

Regarding CUN-GDL-MEX, as previously stated CUN is virtually all US point of sale with tourist. GDL overall is pretty heavy with VFR/ethnic flow as GDL serves as gateway to neighboring states for significant Mexican population in the US. MEX on the otherhand is more balanced and diverse in customer base but tends to book heavier with Mexico point of sale.

UAL777UK wrote:

Looking at this from over the pond, tourism to Mexico is falling off a cliff, primarily due to the high crime rate, maybe that's having a knock on effect with the US passengers going there there as well now. Having been to Dominican Republic in January I would say that place with the amount of traffic into PUJ seems to be seeing the benefits of that. Just my 2 cents.

This perception hardly reflects reality. Tourism to Mexico, in reality, is booming, and they set an international arrivals record in 2017 with 39.3mil visitors, up 12 percent year over year.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-0 ... 993890.htm

As far air traffic from the US specifically, Mexico saw solid 9% growth in enplanements in 2017 as well.

Even UK visitors was up 3.5% during the year

http://www.datatur.sectur.gob.mx/RAT/RAT-2017-12(EN).pdf

Would it be accurate to say (and I dont know if it is), that the airlines appear to be retrenching to the major markets within Mexico? I look at what CO used to have in Mexico vs what UA has now (in terms of destinations served) and the difference has become hard to ignore. That said, capacity in markets like MEX, CUN, GDL, BJX, MTY, etc. seem to be at an all time high.

LAXintl wrote:

BJX (Leon, Guanajuato)
Effective October 4, end twice-daily service between LAX and BJX.
Effective October 28 introduce new daily service between ORD and BJX

MZT (Mazatlán)
Effective August 18, United will no longer operate service between MZT and IAH and ORD.

I would expect AA to act accordingly and add frequency from either DFW or PHX to both BJX and MZT.

LAXintl wrote:

Announced internally today, a bunch of network changes happening to Mexico flying to better reflect passenger demand and profitability.

MEX (Mexico City)
Effective June 23, no longer offer weekly service between DEN and MEX
Effective August 20, reduce IAH-MEX service by one daily frequency
Effective October 4, United will increase EWR-MEX service to three times daily, while ending service between LAX-MEX.

1) Good news for AM, single player on the DEN MEX route.
2) Southwest effect. And good to have less seats on the route for AM and Interjet.
3) Stepping on before JetBlue?

LAXintl wrote:

BJX (Leon, Guanajuato)
Effective October 4, end twice-daily service between LAX and BJX.
Effective October 28 introduce new daily service between ORD and BJX

1) Another great news for AM. I hope instead of stepping back the BJX-LAX they increase it again! Shame we're missing frames!
2) That's an interesting new route.

g77

Tailwinds13 wrote:

About time a carrier flies ORD-BJX nonstop. Last flights were on Mexicana with a stop in MTY. There’s definitely demand, I’m sure bookings will be healthy.

Volaris has had the Chicago-BJX route to themselves for the past five years. They currently operate MDW-BJX 4x weekly with a mix of A319/A320, wonder if they will respond by adding more frequencies.

laca773 wrote:

Does LAX-BJX have too much capacity with UA (E75x2) AM (E90x1) and Volaris (A319/A320 varies) too much capacity?

Add Interjet to the mix. I believe they recently started flying LAX-BJX.

Surprised by VSA. Still very surprised UA refuses to fly to ZCS, that's the one city in Mexico that should have nonstop from IAH. Not surprised at all QRO is getting another flight that area is a manufacturing hotbed right now. UA is going to cut more and more, the legacy of Continental flying to Mexican cities as much as possible is disappearing.

jfklganyc wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

UPlog wrote:

Out of curiosity what are the biggest Mexico-US routes?

For 12-months ending Sept 2017.

1. LAX-MEX 1,190,680 +21%
2. IAH-MEX 841,069 +2%
3. GDL-LAX 819,310 -9%
4. JFK-MEX 807,213 +23%
5. ATL-CUN 747,174 +6%
6. LAX-CUN 732,154 +26%
7. JFK-CUN 728,616 +24%
8. DFW-CUN 721,250 +4%
9. MIA-MEX 706,052 -9%
10. IAH-CUN 676,738 +5%

=

Note that only one MIA route on the list

Not surprising. Mexico as a whole is generally much stronger to places West of the Mississippi and Miami isn't a particularly strong destination for Mexican VFR traffic. The only areas in the East on the list are major O&D center NYC, mega-hub ATL (in which Delta can consolidate lots of tourism traffic to CUN) and MIA. I suspect that MIA is primarily business traffic and connections to Florida, the rest of the east coast and to a lesser extent the Caribbean.

At some point would it make sense for VW to take over some of the IAH-regional Mexico markets? I know they don’t have CRJs anymore but I doubt they’re that difficult to pick up.

ghost77 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

Announced internally today, a bunch of network changes happening to Mexico flying to better reflect passenger demand and profitability.

MEX (Mexico City)
Effective June 23, no longer offer weekly service between DEN and MEX
Effective August 20, reduce IAH-MEX service by one daily frequency
Effective October 4, United will increase EWR-MEX service to three times daily, while ending service between LAX-MEX.

1) Good news for AM, single player on the DEN MEX route.
2) Southwest effect. And good to have less seats on the route for AM and Interjet.
3) Stepping on before JetBlue?

LAXintl wrote:

BJX (Leon, Guanajuato)
Effective October 4, end twice-daily service between LAX and BJX.
Effective October 28 introduce new daily service between ORD and BJX

1) Another great news for AM. I hope instead of stepping back the BJX-LAX they increase it again! Shame we're missing frames!
2) That's an interesting new route.

g77

Y4 also serves DEN-MEX, and I’d think that Y4 is actually the bigger player of the two due to the fact that they serve it year round while AM only serves it seasonally, and Y4 has the upcoming codeshare with F9 to potentially feed their flights. I’m not sure what the competitive dynamics between those two carriers are though since Y4 is an LCC while AM is more in line with the US3 (sorry, I couldn’t figure out how to isolate just the part of the quote about DEN-MEX)

alasizon wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

BJX (Leon, Guanajuato)
Effective October 4, end twice-daily service between LAX and BJX.
Effective October 28 introduce new daily service between ORD and BJX

MZT (Mazatlán)
Effective August 18, United will no longer operate service between MZT and IAH and ORD.

I would expect AA to act accordingly and add frequency from either DFW or PHX to both BJX and MZT.

AA is actually switching metal to less seats. Going from A319 to EMB next month. Frequency stays the same at twice daily.

Mexicana757 wrote:

Tailwinds13 wrote:

About time a carrier flies ORD-BJX nonstop. Last flights were on Mexicana with a stop in MTY. There’s definitely demand, I’m sure bookings will be healthy.

Volaris has had the Chicago-BJX route to themselves for the past five years. They currently operate MDW-BJX 4x weekly with a mix of A319/A320, wonder if they will respond by adding more frequencies.

laca773 wrote:

Does LAX-BJX have too much capacity with UA (E75x2) AM (E90x1) and Volaris (A319/A320 varies) too much capacity?

Add Interjet to the mix. I believe they recently started flying LAX-BJX.

Yup, which is why I said ORD, not Chicago as a whole. The ORD-based flights to Mexico capture a lot of Wisconsin traffic who find it easier and often times cheaper to book AA’s/UA’s flights to their cities of choice with a stop in DFW/IAH from ORD than have to drive to Midway. ORD will also have UA feed, so I’m happy to see this route returning.

Brickell305 wrote:

I suspect that MIA is primarily business traffic and connections to Florida, the rest of the east coast and to a lesser extent the Caribbean.

There is also a lot of leisure travel (Mexicans love Miami as much as Russians, Emiraitis and Brazilians do), plus lots of shuttling back and forth of wealthy Mexicans who live between Mexico City and Miami, or who have vacation homes in SoFla.

BAINY3 wrote:

stl07 wrote:

So all that's left between the US and HUX is swift to STL and volaris to ORD, both only once weekly and seasonal....

Also SY to MSP.

I'm pretty sure SY has elminated HUX