Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 7:40 pm

It's almost shocking to see just how fast AUS-LON has grown.

Here are the CAA numbers for March:
http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/ ... alysis.pdf

Of course we'd have to wait for year-end numbers to conclusively state this, but AUS been posting larger monthly numbers to LON than TPA, BWI, MSP, and RDU.... one of which is a major hub, and all of whom have had their LON flights for multiple decades!

Image

The flight started as a 788, was upgauged only 19months later to a 772ER, then switched to a 789.
With these sort of numbers in mind, it's almost no surprise that BA decided to go seasonal 744!
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 7:47 pm

On a larger scale, props to LAS as well, which has exploded in traffic to LON and to the UK in general!

It wasn't all that long ago that a single less-than-daily VS service to LGW was all they had.

Now, they have service to LHR, three airlines to LGW, two airlines to MAN, as well as service to STN and GLA.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
airbazar
Posts: 10220
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 7:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
It's almost shocking to see just how fast AUS-LON has grown.

Here are the CAA numbers for March:
http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/ ... alysis.pdf

Of course we'd have to wait for year-end numbers to conclusively state this, but AUS been posting larger monthly numbers to LON than TPA, BWI, MSP, and RDU.... one of which is a major hub, and all of whom have had their LON flights for multiple decades!

The flight started as a 788, was upgauged only 19months later to a 772ER, then switched to a 789.
With these sort of numbers in mind, it's almost no surprise that BA decided to go seasonal 744!


It would be shocking if it didn't. As you pointed out the others are all mature markets. They're not going to see huge growth. A new non-stop service always stimulates the market quite significantly.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 8:02 pm

I would expect Austin to beat Phoenix soon/quickly. And not look back.
 
lawair
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:59 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 8:09 pm

Full year numbers would be helpful, but it certainly seems like AUS-LHR is doing quite well. March as a single month may not be as helpful a snapshot for comparison though. AUS got a boost in March from SXSW, while some other markets still had a winter storm in late March. Generally February for a lot of the Northeast is the weakest month for London flights, and then there's large improvement for March, particularly if Easter falls in that month (although that only partially affected this year's numbers since Easter was April 1). Summer is the strongest for places like BWI.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26409
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 8:58 pm

These aren't local traffic numbers, it's how many people fly non-stop between them regardless of origin/destination. With more capacity to LON than BWI, TPA, etc., I'd hope it's higher.
a.
 
3rdRockTrekker
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:05 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 9:36 pm

lawair wrote:
Full year numbers would be helpful, but it certainly seems like AUS-LHR is doing quite well. March as a single month may not be as helpful a snapshot for comparison though. AUS got a boost in March from SXSW, while some other markets still had a winter storm in late March. Generally February for a lot of the Northeast is the weakest month for London flights, and then there's large improvement for March, particularly if Easter falls in that month (although that only partially affected this year's numbers since Easter was April 1). Summer is the strongest for places like BWI.



Any SXSW "boost" on the AUS-LHR route in March 2018 is minuscule. The flight already averages an 80+% passenger load factor - and has done so since its inception.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 9:40 pm

airbazar wrote:
It would be shocking if it didn't. As you pointed out the others are all mature markets. They're not going to see huge growth. A new non-stop service always stimulates the market quite significantly.

You're conflating two different things. I'm not surprised that AUS is currently growing faster than them, I'm surprised that it's handling more TOTAL pax than markets that have had LON service for 20yrs+ do.



MAH4546 wrote:
With more capacity to LON than BWI, TPA, etc., I'd hope it's higher.

:shakehead: Not for these number there wasn't.

BA was still a 789: the same as BWI, and less than TPA.
DY had been on the route for a grand total of 3 days.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Fri May 11, 2018 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 9:41 pm

The route was operated with a 789 both months cited (the 744 didn’t start subbing til end of April). It’ll be interesting to see where the higher end of the capacity comes out. Statistics for May won’t be out til late summer, at which point they’ll be about to swap back.

Apparently one of the pilots reported a 75% load factor last week (not bad for a random weekday in May?); a full 789 is the equivalent of 72% LF on the lowest capacity 744 BA operates (I don’t know which config was operating that day, though). I have heard the front is pretty full, though.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 9:52 pm

I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:14 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.

AUS already has three scheduled carriers to Europe.

Impossible to know what DL is thinking, as it could just as easily give them pause instead of incentive.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jfk777
Posts: 7418
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:19 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.


Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.
 
B747forever
Posts: 13861
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 9:50 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:23 pm

How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:23 pm

jfk777 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.


Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.


There’s been a persistent rumor that DL wants to launch AMS as part of a new focus city plan for AUS. Why AMS over CDG I couldn’t tell you, but the rumor mill is pretty convinced it’ll be AMS.
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:24 pm

B747forever wrote:
How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.


It seems to be doing pretty well. Wasn’t it upgauged even before it was actually launched?
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:29 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.

AUS already has three scheduled carriers to Europe.

Impossible to know what DL is thinking, as it could just as easily give them pause instead of incentive.


True, but DE is only summer seasonal and DY is less than daily to the same city (albeit, to a different airport) with a bigger emphasis on O&D traffic. Plus, with DY's financial state, they may not even last. I think there is room for DL to launch AUS-AMS or CDG, but you are right, we don't know what they are thinking.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:29 pm

khowaga wrote:
B747forever wrote:
How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.


It seems to be doing pretty well. Wasn’t it upgauged even before it was actually launched?


It was increased to 5x weekly shortly after it started, but nothing since then.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:32 pm

khowaga wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.


Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.


There’s been a persistent rumor that DL wants to launch AMS as part of a new focus city plan for AUS. Why AMS over CDG I couldn’t tell you, but the rumor mill is pretty convinced it’ll be AMS.


Probably AMS because of the SXSW AUS-AMS service DL ran.

jfk777: The rumor was the aforementioned flight was a test run for a potential launch to year round, and that at the same time, DL would launch some p2p flying out of AUS to feed the flight.
 
B747forever
Posts: 13861
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 9:50 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:33 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
khowaga wrote:
B747forever wrote:
How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.


It seems to be doing pretty well. Wasn’t it upgauged even before it was actually launched?


It was increased to 5x weekly shortly after it started, but nothing since then.


And seems to still be operated by the 787-8.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
User avatar
yellowtail
Posts: 3938
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 3:46 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:33 pm

IIRC the AUS BA744 is subbing due to ongoing 787 engine issues....not as a direct result of demand.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:33 pm

yellowtail wrote:
IIRC the AUS BA744 is subbing due to ongoing 787 engine issues....not as a direct result of demand.


The swap was announced last fall before the 787 engine issues were a thing. At the time they said it was because they needed the 789 to open SEZ while waiting for more frames to be delivered, but others have pointed out that the timing doesn’t make sense.

But you’re right, it wasn’t demand based.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:35 pm

khowaga wrote:
B747forever wrote:
How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.

It seems to be doing pretty well. Wasn’t it upgauged even before it was actually launched?

It wasn't upgauged, the frequency was increased between announcement and commencement, due to demand.

Loadwise, it surprised a lot of people that the "leisure" route initially did much better in J than it did in Y.

Nowadays, both cabins routinely have high loads, and it's not unheard of for 2-week fares to be well into the five digits (spotted a nearly $14,000 last-minute J fare during Mardi Gras!). It's not uncommon at all for the front-cabin to look like this:

Image




At the launch, one of the agents is on tape saying that the airline eventually intends for it to be a 4class destination. It routinely gets subs for 789s (even before the RR engine issues started affecting scheduling), but hasn't officially been upgauged yet.

AUS got upgauged 19months in; MSY has been operating for just shy of 14months... so seems to be more-or-less on a similar path.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Fri May 11, 2018 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
malev2012
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:36 pm

yellowtail wrote:
IIRC the AUS BA744 is subbing due to ongoing 787 engine issues....not as a direct result of demand.

The 744 is still showing through the fall, so I wouldn't be shocked if they keep it on the route for engine related reasons.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:38 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
khowaga wrote:
B747forever wrote:
How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.

It seems to be doing pretty well. Wasn’t it upgauged even before it was actually launched?

It wasn't upgauged, the frequency was increased between announcement and commencement, due to demand.

Loadwise, it surprised a lot of people that the "leisure" route initially did much better in J than it did in Y.

Nowadays, both cabins routinely have high loads, and it's not uncommon for 2-week fares to be well into the five digits (spotted a nearly $14,000 last-minute J fare during Mardi Gras!). It's not uncommon at all for the front-cabin to look like this:

At the launch, one of the agents is on tape saying that the airline eventually intends for it to be a 4class destination. It routinely gets subs for 789s (even before the RR engine issues started affecting scheduling), but hasn't officially been upgauged yet.

AUS got upgauged 19months in; MSY has been operating for just shy of 14months... so seems to be more-or-less on a similar path.


Good for MSY. Yeah, AUS began at 5x weekly, but went to daily within about two months (this was announced at the time of launch). We’ve seen the 772 on scheduled service (I say this like the seat difference between the 788, 789, and 772 isn’t within 10 seats of each other...just how they’re arranged I guess!)
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:39 pm

malev2012 wrote:
yellowtail wrote:
IIRC the AUS BA744 is subbing due to ongoing 787 engine issues....not as a direct result of demand.

The 744 is still showing through the fall,

You're not looking far enough ahead. The 789 is already back on the route for the fall and existing winter schedule.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:39 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
khowaga wrote:
B747forever wrote:
How is MSY doing? It is also a pretty new BA destination.

It seems to be doing pretty well. Wasn’t it upgauged even before it was actually launched?

It wasn't upgauged, the frequency was increased between announcement and commencement, due to demand.

Loadwise, it surprised a lot of people that the "leisure" route initially did much better in J than it did in Y.

Nowadays, both cabins routinely have high loads, and it's not unheard of for 2-week fares to be well into the five digits (spotted a nearly $14,000 last-minute J fare during Mardi Gras!). It's not uncommon at all for the front-cabin to look like this:

Image




At the launch, one of the agents is on tape saying that the airline eventually intends for it to be a 4class destination. It routinely gets subs for 789s (even before the RR engine issues started affecting scheduling), but hasn't officially been upgauged yet.

AUS got upgauged 19months in; MSY has been operating for just shy of 14months... so seems to be more-or-less on a similar path.


The only difference is MSY hasn't gone daily yet, that would probably happen before an aircraft upgauge.
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:39 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
yellowtail wrote:
IIRC the AUS BA744 is subbing due to ongoing 787 engine issues....not as a direct result of demand.

The 744 is still showing through the fall,

You're not looking far enough ahead. The 789 is already back on the route for the fall and existing winter schedule.


Switches back in October, doesn’t it?
 
airzona11
Posts: 1799
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:40 pm

AUS is such a boom town. Great data. And shows that markets can be captured but also stimulated. Plenty big enough for Norwegian and BA.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:41 pm

khowaga wrote:
(I say this like the seat difference between the 788, 789, and 772 isn’t within 10 seats of each other...just how they’re arranged I guess!)

It's not arrangement, it's class and yield.

Compared to the initial 788:

The 789 has 7 more J seats and 8 F seats.
The 4class 77E has 21 more J seats and 14 F seats.

.....that's a **TON** more premium capacity, and a completely different pricing dynamic.
Not to mention the cargo considerations/options offered by the larger aircraft as well.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:43 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
khowaga wrote:
(I say this like the seat difference between the 788, 789, and 772 isn’t within 10 seats of each other...just how they’re arranged I guess!)

It's not arrangement, it's class and yield.

Compared to the initial 788:

The 789 has 7 more J seats and 8 F seats.
The 4class 77E has 21 more J seats and 14 F seats.

.....that's a **TON** more premium capacity, and a completely different pricing dynamic.
Not to mention the cargo considerations/options offered by the larger aircraft as well.


That’s what I meant by “arrangement.” Sorry, as a historian I should know to be more precise in my language! I’ve deducted 10 points from my essay score...
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:44 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
The only difference is MSY hasn't gone daily yet, that would probably happen before an aircraft upgauge.

Not necessarily.

The airline could just as easily choose to maximize revenue on the days with higher-yield, rather than fly days with lower demand for the arbitrary purposes of going daily.

They did the same with PHX for years, choosing to upgauge to a 6x/Wk 744 from a 77E, before eventually going daily.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
malev2012
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Fri May 11, 2018 10:44 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
yellowtail wrote:
IIRC the AUS BA744 is subbing due to ongoing 787 engine issues....not as a direct result of demand.

The 744 is still showing through the fall,

You're not looking far enough ahead. The 789 is already back on the route for the fall and existing winter schedule.

Oh looks like 28 OCT is when the swap occurs. I have a booking earlier in October and was going off that.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sat May 12, 2018 12:17 am

What to me would be most telling, is if they bring it back next summer. Or at least go back to the 77E.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
factsonly
Posts: 3033
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sat May 12, 2018 7:44 am

jfk777 wrote:
Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.


AMS and CDG are near equal in overall passenger volume, but vary substantially in hub character.

- AMS is transfer focussed
- CDG is O&D focussed

Here are the 2017 pax data:
- AMS = 68.515.425 pax of which 25.314.802 transfer passengers
- CDG = 69,471,442 pax of which 11,699,597 transfer passengers

So DL will carefully select its European hub for an AUS service, as AMS and CDG differ.
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sat May 12, 2018 11:46 am

LAX772LR wrote:
What to me would be most telling, is if they bring it back next summer. Or at least go back to the 77E.


Dunno. The 744 swap was really more about a shortage of 789 frames this summer, so bringing it back would be a sign of tremendous growth on the route this summer. But we shall see!
 
User avatar
PatrickZ80
Posts: 4375
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sat May 12, 2018 12:10 pm

factsonly wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.


AMS and CDG are near equal in overall passenger volume, but vary substantially in hub character.

- AMS is transfer focussed
- CDG is O&D focussed

Here are the 2017 pax data:
- AMS = 68.515.425 pax of which 25.314.802 transfer passengers
- CDG = 69,471,442 pax of which 11,699,597 transfer passengers

So DL will carefully select its European hub for an AUS service, as AMS and CDG differ.


No wonder Amsterdam is the better transfer hub as KLM is a much better transfer partner airline than Air France. Air France is unreliable, prone to strikes. KLM rarely has any strikes, so it's no surprise Delta rather works with KLM instead of Air France.

Paris is indeed a bigger city, but not a bigger hub. Just a bigger destination. As for the traffic between Austin and Paris, that's still possible if they choose Amsterdam. Both Air France and KLM fly Amsterdam - Paris very frequently and therefor it's an easy one-stop route.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 6:42 am

khowaga wrote:
The 744 swap was really more about a shortage of 789 frames this summer

Probably shouldn't say that so definitively, considering that:
1) no one here knows that for fact, it's just postulation
2) if BA didn't believe the aircraft was justified on the route relative to both the demand and the opportunity cost, then they could've just as easily put it on a route utilizing a 4class 77E or some other 789, and then sent either of the latter to AUS (again) instead.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 11:30 am

LAX772LR wrote:
khowaga wrote:
The 744 swap was really more about a shortage of 789 frames this summer

Probably shouldn't say that so definitively, considering that:
1) no one here knows that for fact, it's just postulation
2) if BA didn't believe the aircraft was justified on the route relative to both the demand and the opportunity cost, then they could've just as easily put it on a route utilizing a 4class 77E or some other 789, and then sent either of the latter to AUS (again) instead.


I’ve argued this same point myself (mainly based on cargo loads-the route does very well in cargo, and my guess was always that the extra cargo capacity made the route viable on the 744).

The point I was trying to make is that BA has given no sign that this was anything other than a one-off seasonal swap for this summer season. I may be wrong, but we will have to wait for the summer schedule to come out in a few months to see for sure.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11049
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 1:46 pm

khowaga wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
khowaga wrote:
The 744 swap was really more about a shortage of 789 frames this summer

Probably shouldn't say that so definitively, considering that:
1) no one here knows that for fact, it's just postulation
2) if BA didn't believe the aircraft was justified on the route relative to both the demand and the opportunity cost, then they could've just as easily put it on a route utilizing a 4class 77E or some other 789, and then sent either of the latter to AUS (again) instead.


I’ve argued this same point myself (mainly based on cargo loads-the route does very well in cargo, and my guess was always that the extra cargo capacity made the route viable on the 744).

The point I was trying to make is that BA has given no sign that this was anything other than a one-off seasonal swap for this summer season. I may be wrong, but we will have to wait for the summer schedule to come out in a few months to see for sure.

The 744 really doesn’t have much more cargo capacity than a 789.
 
LJ
Posts: 5449
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 1:47 pm

factsonly wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.


AMS and CDG are near equal in overall passenger volume, but vary substantially in hub character.

- AMS is transfer focussed
- CDG is O&D focussed

Here are the 2017 pax data:
- AMS = 68.515.425 pax of which 25.314.802 transfer passengers
- CDG = 69,471,442 pax of which 11,699,597 transfer passengers

So DL will carefully select its European hub for an AUS service, as AMS and CDG differ.


Given that there are no additional slots at AMS till 2021, AMS is not a viable alternative (unless it switches another flight to AUS).
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 1:59 pm

Polot wrote:
khowaga wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Probably shouldn't say that so definitively, considering that:
1) no one here knows that for fact, it's just postulation
2) if BA didn't believe the aircraft was justified on the route relative to both the demand and the opportunity cost, then they could've just as easily put it on a route utilizing a 4class 77E or some other 789, and then sent either of the latter to AUS (again) instead.


I’ve argued this same point myself (mainly based on cargo loads-the route does very well in cargo, and my guess was always that the extra cargo capacity made the route viable on the 744).

The point I was trying to make is that BA has given no sign that this was anything other than a one-off seasonal swap for this summer season. I may be wrong, but we will have to wait for the summer schedule to come out in a few months to see for sure.

The 744 really doesn’t have much more cargo capacity than a 789.


What you’re saying is that a fully loaded 744 does not have that much excess cargo capacity than a fully loaded 789. My suspicion has been that BA may not have expected to fill the passenger cabin of the 744, but knew that they could make up for it by carrying extra cargo in the available space.

Austin Business Journal did a write up on the flight in the early days and one of the things that they mentioned was that, while the flight was doing very well on cargo in itself, on slow days BA was using the flight to relieve cargo backups at DFW and IAH because they could send stuff by ground to AUS quickly and load it up here. As a result, the flight was always operating at or near max cargo capacity even if the pax load was lower.

Hence my (hopefully educated) guess that this is one of the reasons why this particular aircraft is being subbed on this particular route.

I’m arguing almost the same thing that LAX772LR is, I’m just arguing it for a slightly different reason (cargo load vs pax load as the driving factor).
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11049
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 2:30 pm

khowaga wrote:
Polot wrote:
khowaga wrote:

I’ve argued this same point myself (mainly based on cargo loads-the route does very well in cargo, and my guess was always that the extra cargo capacity made the route viable on the 744).

The point I was trying to make is that BA has given no sign that this was anything other than a one-off seasonal swap for this summer season. I may be wrong, but we will have to wait for the summer schedule to come out in a few months to see for sure.

The 744 really doesn’t have much more cargo capacity than a 789.


What you’re saying is that a fully loaded 744 does not have that much excess cargo capacity than a fully loaded 789. My suspicion has been that BA may not have expected to fill the passenger cabin of the 744, but knew that they could make up for it by carrying extra cargo in the available space.

Austin Business Journal did a write up on the flight in the early days and one of the things that they mentioned was that, while the flight was doing very well on cargo in itself, on slow days BA was using the flight to relieve cargo backups at DFW and IAH because they could send stuff by ground to AUS quickly and load it up here. As a result, the flight was always operating at or near max cargo capacity even if the pax load was lower.

Hence my (hopefully educated) guess that this is one of the reasons why this particular aircraft is being subbed on this particular route.

I’m arguing almost the same thing that LAX772LR is, I’m just arguing it for a slightly different reason (cargo load vs pax load as the driving factor).

I’m talking more cargo period. The 789 has a lot of cargo volume for its size. It will have about as much cargo space available as a 744 with a 789 load of pax. A pax 747, being a first gen wise body and with all those MLG, has less cargo volume available than you would initially think.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 5:47 pm

khowaga wrote:
I’ve argued this same point myself (mainly based on cargo loads-the route does very well in cargo, and my guess was always that the extra cargo capacity made the route viable on the 744).

But again: why bother flying a route that would be "just viable," when a minimal-effort swap-out could place a smaller aircraft with less risk?

As noted, the pax 744 can't do anything cargo-wise that a 789/777 couldn't.

So if BA did not believe the route merited the pax capability of a 747, why put one on it, when they could just as easily take a 777 or 787 from BOS/EWR/YYZ/etc (all of which have reliably filled 744s before) and get the same cargo capability while requiring less pax?

The whole "it's about engine shortages or cargo" just doesn't hold water in light of the ease at which the airline could rotate different models to address the route.

They definitely think they're making money on the pax yield at that level of capacity, or they wouldn't suffer the opportunity cost of that larger ship not being at a more powerful gateway.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
yellowtail
Posts: 3938
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 3:46 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 6:14 pm

Not to take the thread off the track abit who do we see next in AUS? Definitely seems like CM or LH market
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 13434
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 6:59 pm

yellowtail wrote:
Definitely seems like CM or LH market

CM has been extremely gun-shy about medium markets in the USA.

MSY is the only one they've ever launched, mostly due to its large central American population.
They've found success and grown there, but they haven't moved toward any others in the years since beginning there.

The fact that they're growing the average gauge of their 737 fleet, while at the same time decreasing the count of their E-Jet fleet, makes expansion of medium markets something of a dubious proposal. :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jayunited
Posts: 3097
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 7:38 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
But again: why bother flying a route that would be "just viable," when a minimal-effort swap-out could place a smaller aircraft with less risk?
As noted, the pax 744 can't do anything cargo-wise that a 789/777 couldn't.
So if BA did not believe the route merited the pax capability of a 747, why put one on it, when they could just as easily take a 777 or 787 from BOS/EWR/YYZ/etc (all of which have reliably filled 744s before) and get the same cargo capability while requiring less pax?
The whole "it's about engine shortages or cargo" just doesn't hold water in light of the ease at which the airline could rotate different models to address the route.
They definitely think they're making money on the pax yield at that level of capacity, or they wouldn't suffer the opportunity cost of that larger ship not being at a more powerful gateway.


You are correct.
I think people look at the 747 and the A380 and just assume they are hauling a lot of cargo when the truth is those aircraft because they accommodate more passengers more of the cargo hold is dedicated to luggage than actual cargo. while a 777/787 are perfect for hauling cargo because you only need a maximum of 6-10 LD3's for bags depending on the cabin configuration. When UA had the 744's in the fleet it wasn't uncommon to see one end of the aircraft dedicated to luggage only especially if we were full or almost full we would need 14-16 LD3's which left only one end of the aircraft open for cargo. If an airline is really interested in moving a lot of cargo and passengers the 777/787 is better suited but if it is about moving large numbers of passengers the 747/A380 is the perfect aircraft because a full passenger cabin on a 744 requires at least 12-16 LD3's and the equals 3/4th of one end of a cargo compartment whether it is the forward or aft cargo pit. You are spot this upguage to a 744 is about passengers and BA feels like they can sustain their (probable) high yields through the summer with the 744 on this route.
 
khowaga
Posts: 272
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 8:00 pm

yellowtail wrote:
Not to take the thread off the track abit who do we see next in AUS? Definitely seems like CM or LH market


There’s been a bit of speculation in the Austin thread. No actual answers, though. (The short answer is that CM seems like a long shot as AUS-Latin America traffic isn’t as strong as other Texas cities; LH hasn’t really been a subject of discussion, interestingly).

The city has been courting KE but that seems a few years off yet.
 
Jetty
Posts: 1357
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:27 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 8:03 pm

LJ wrote:
factsonly wrote:
Given that there are no additional slots at AMS till 2021, AMS is not a viable alternative (unless it switches another flight to AUS).

That's not really a problem for KL (and by extension DL), they could just move a HV leisure flight to a local airport in The Netherlands to open slots for intercontinental flights.
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 3685
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Sun May 13, 2018 9:42 pm

khowaga wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I wonder if this growth will keep going if other carriers come in and launch additional TATL service to other European cities. You have to wonder if DL is looking at this and planning to launch AUS-AMS as a result.


Why AMS Delta should go to Paris CDG, Paris is a bigger hub and a bigger city.


There’s been a persistent rumor that DL wants to launch AMS as part of a new focus city plan for AUS. Why AMS over CDG I couldn’t tell you, but the rumor mill is pretty convinced it’ll be AMS.


I would think AMS as well because it's better for connections. Since there are no slots available at AMS right now, it would seem as though JFK could go from 5 flights between AMS and JFK to 4 with KL641/2 upgauged to a B77W or B744 - each of which has 408 seats, depending on cargo needs with the B77W better at belly cargo, although KL643/4 sees a combi 3x weekly carrying main-deck cargo. The deleted JFK frequency would then go to AUS; who actually operates it would then be academic as it's metal-neutral.
 
dfwjim1
Posts: 2491
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

Re: AUS astonishing LON growth market, surpasses several US markets

Mon May 14, 2018 1:24 am

I am just curious if the Austin BA flight has taken business away from the DFW AA/BA flights to LHR as I imagine there were more than a few travelers flying/driving from Austin to DFW to connect to AA/BA's flights before the Austin service began. Have there been any studies done on how BA's Austin service impacted the DFW flights to LHR?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos