bostrv
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:40 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
US-India non-stop and DL margins do not add up. Also, both AI and UA pre-empted this move. 9W still in business. Unless DL wants to cross-subsidize these losses across the network, increasing 9W's India-EU feed is the best financially viable solution.

OAG published interesting statistics on US-India traffic market shares for Oct'17 to Sep'18 period. They ranked top 10 but published numbers of only 3 airlines.
#1 EK -19%
#2 AI - 17%
#3 QR
#4 EY
#5 UA - 7%
#6 BA
#7 LH
#8 SQ
#9 CX
#10 AF


So, UA with 2 daily flights is higher up than BA? That suggests that India-EU+UK market is quite large.
Also 2X daily being 7% seems to suggest that the India-US market is 15X that - so around 30 x UA's operating aircraft capacity?
 
n2dru
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:42 am

klm617 wrote:
n2dru wrote:
klm617 wrote:

It has more to do with the premium cabin than it has to do with the connections to fill the back. Case and point DTW-NGO while ATL has more connection possibilities Detroit has more premium traffic to NGO. While I don't think it will be Detroit I still feel it has the best chance to make money for Delta over JFK or ATL but I don't run Delta. We have the A350 based here not to mention there is ZERO low fare competition to India plus there is a lot of traffic between Detroit and India and the airport has listed a nonstop to India as being on it's wish list. Hey let's face it if Delta can consider MSP-PVG with 20 PDEW then why not give Detroit a chance with 150 PDEW to India.


Comparing NGO to BOM doesn't make sense. DTWNGO is strictly tied to the automotive and supporting industries. Thus the premium traffic. Its not a flight filled with VFR and people wanting to vacay in DTW. Not an apples to apples comparison.


Exactly and that is why BOM will be launched from the airport where it thinks it can get the most premium traffic not from the airport where it can get the most connections at. Now that might be ATL and it may not but Delta is not going to base it's decision where it can fill a plane with transfer passengers but where it can get the most yields exactly like what it does with DTW-NGO. The new BOM connection will also be based on what city can offer the best return on investment.


So DTW has a lot of premium demand to India? Again comparing DTWNGO to ATLBOM is not a fair comparison. Everyone knows DTW is the automotive capital in the US. Thus the primary reason for the flight. Youre missing the point.
 
klm617
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:49 am

n2dru wrote:
klm617 wrote:
n2dru wrote:

Comparing NGO to BOM doesn't make sense. DTWNGO is strictly tied to the automotive and supporting industries. Thus the premium traffic. Its not a flight filled with VFR and people wanting to vacay in DTW. Not an apples to apples comparison.


Exactly and that is why BOM will be launched from the airport where it thinks it can get the most premium traffic not from the airport where it can get the most connections at. Now that might be ATL and it may not but Delta is not going to base it's decision where it can fill a plane with transfer passengers but where it can get the most yields exactly like what it does with DTW-NGO. The new BOM connection will also be based on what city can offer the best return on investment.


So DTW has a lot of premium demand to India? Again comparing DTWNGO to ATLBOM is not a fair comparison. Everyone knows DTW is the automotive capital in the US. Thus the primary reason for the flight. Youre missing the point.


I get that but comparing ATL-BOM to NYC-BOM is no comparison either the traffic from NYC is huge to India compared to ATL.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
n2dru
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:07 am

klm617 wrote:
n2dru wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Exactly and that is why BOM will be launched from the airport where it thinks it can get the most premium traffic not from the airport where it can get the most connections at. Now that might be ATL and it may not but Delta is not going to base it's decision where it can fill a plane with transfer passengers but where it can get the most yields exactly like what it does with DTW-NGO. The new BOM connection will also be based on what city can offer the best return on investment.


So DTW has a lot of premium demand to India? Again comparing DTWNGO to ATLBOM is not a fair comparison. Everyone knows DTW is the automotive capital in the US. Thus the primary reason for the flight. Youre missing the point.


I get that but comparing ATL-BOM to NYC-BOM is no comparison either the traffic from NYC is huge to India compared to ATL.


There was no comparing of the two in terms of traffic/volume. Everyone knows NYC is the larger market. Isn't ATL a larger market to India than DTW?
 
777Mech
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:13 am

klm617 wrote:
winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Case and point DTW-NGO while ATL has more connection possibilities Detroit has more premium traffic to NGO.


I'm not sure I'm tracking how NGO is comparable to BOM.


That if Delta based it route additions on the amount of connecting traffic it could get to fill a flight NGO would operate out of ATL instead of Detroit. The reason that NGO is operated out of Detroit is because it is a premium heavy flight and I'd venture to say that the connections traffic that feeds that flight is minimal. So Delta's basis for operating or not operated a flight is based more on the amount it can get from it's premium cabin rather than the amount of connections it can field. Like I said above I think Delta is trying to shore up it's corporate contracts to see what might be the better place to launch a flight to India based on that I think JFK is the winner simply because in ATL like DTW Delta already has pretty much all the corporate contracts tied up where as in New York they can still win some corporate accounts over based and they are using the fact that they want to start JFK-BOM to poach customers from UA or AI. Don't know what's available in ATL that isn't already on board with Delta and the only one I can think of in the Detroit area is Mahindra that just opened and assembly plant here if they aren't already on board with Delta.


There are more connections on the DTW-NGO flight than you think. There are a bunch of auto connections from the SE. What's the origination city for flight 95?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:43 am

klm617 wrote:
I get that but comparing ATL-BOM to NYC-BOM is no comparison either the traffic from NYC is huge to India compared to ATL.

So's the competition, which is why ATL is in consideration for the flight.... as you've been told a thousand different times by a hundred different posters.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:26 am

It appears ATL security lines are all the way to India, per Jimmy Kimmel, so we have a winner.
 
sabby
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:10 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
SEA would be a good place to launch a nonstop to India. The tech sector there combined with high traffic flows to places like BLR, HYD and DEL would offer amble opportunity. I don't see NYC being the best place for an India nonstop as there is not nearly as much business traffic and AI already offers nonstops from that market.

SEA is an interesting idea. However, I don't see much premium O&D demand between SEA-BOM for a non-stop. If they are going to rely on connecting traffic and VFR, SEA-DEL would be much better, 600nm shorter route and well within the range of their A359 or upcoming A339. If they time it well, they can get most of the SEA-HYD/BLR IT traffic via 9W connection.
 
toobz
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:14 pm

Some people, or I should say the same people, are always so upset and screaming foul with whatever DL does lol it’s comical to say the least. I think once again looking at the numbers just released DL is doing quite well to say the least. So let’s leave it up to the ones who know what their doing to make these decisions for DL *wink wink*
 
winginit
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:05 pm

IPFreely wrote:
winginit wrote:
This is a legitimate route launch. That is a fact.


How is that a fact? There has been no launch. There isn't even a route.


Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:08 pm

winginit wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
winginit wrote:
This is a legitimate route launch. That is a fact.


How is that a fact? There has been no launch. There isn't even a route.


Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.



Thanks for sharing; good to hear. Although this is starting to feel like "Waiting for Godot." (For anyone else who was subjected to the trials and tribulations of a liberal arts education :-))
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:12 pm

I hope Delta are not counting on anything to do with 9W at the BOM end.

Sad to say they seem primed for a crash landing as things stand. The only question being when.
Vahroone
 
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enilria
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:18 pm

winginit wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
winginit wrote:
This is a legitimate route launch. That is a fact.


How is that a fact? There has been no launch. There isn't even a route.


Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.

Frankly, given the lead times Delta is giving new routes lately (the new BOS routes were loaded 10 months in advance and they are domestic), I find it hard to believe this will start in 2019. It may be announced, but I question why they would shorten the selling season if they were serious about this. Either it was delayed or this was just a political move from the beginning to declare victory in the US3 - ME3 dust-up. I really don't see how the economics have changed much. India is still a low yield market and has been since before the ME3 existed. It was really LH that pioneered trashing fares to India as a way to fill the back of the plane probably in the 90s, if not the 80s. Yes, DL has a partner there now, but that won't make the yield better.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:19 pm

When that flight was flying JFK years back. My friend put a ding on a new 777LR.
 
georgiabill
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:45 pm

I am wondering if DL might think out of the box a little and consider BOS-BOM-BOS? I have seen 190 people fly between BOS and India per day(believe discussed in BOS thread). I could see either an ATL-BOS-BOM-BOS-ATL routing or DTW-BOS-BOM-BOS-DTW using a 77L on BOS-BOM-BOS sector. By using BOS over JFK DL will offer the only non stop service from BOS to India as opposed to competition from AI and UA operating from EWR and or JFK(UA from EWR) not to mention cutting into EK and QR loads from BOS. Not to mention connecting with 9W for domestic flights in India.
Is this likely no! Could it work? DL would likely do their homework. Perhaps if Massport is throwing money for this might be worth the time spent looking at real world data.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:52 pm

winginit wrote:
Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.


That's a plan, not a launch. Initial plans have already been delayed. We can't trust this anymore than the last one.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:30 pm

winginit wrote:
Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.


That’s not reiterating. Reiterating means repeating the original statement. The original statement was route announcement in late 2018 and launch in 2019. In December we did not get a reiteration of that announcement, we got a new and different announcement. I’m expecting another new and different announcement in 1Q 2019.
 
N649DL
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm

adambrau wrote:
N649DL wrote:
I'm surprised DL hasn't tried DTW-BOM. JFK-BOM is overly saturated, it seems UA really owns the market out of EWR anyways (and I would never be stuck on a UAL flight for that long in Economy.)


Well for now you don't even have the option to be stuck in the DL economy cabin to India, so it sounds like India isn't in your travel plans!


It's not and I'm happy about it. My Brother-In-Law is from India and I had a ticket booked 2 years ago for the (2nd version INT'L) wedding with my sister and yanked it in J on DL/AF. Part of the reason was the Indian consulate in HOU didn't process my visa correctly, the others were the amount of money to spend on vaccines and also inter-travel on 3rd World Airlines within India.

My parents went and both had major issues with their flights on the way back too. My Mom's flight got diverted to Norway on the way home and my Dad's J class seat overheated because of the IFE system (inhaling fumes) on UAL to EWR and the crew did a shoddy job of re-accommodation. Not only that, but I had retroactive options as to why that flight was not diverted entirely for MX, but knowing UA and those EWR cabin crews I can make a few negative assumptions.

Without going into more semantics, culturally they're not my speed mainly for very oddball communication skills. And I've noticed this in the workplace too. I love the food though.
 
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adambrau
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:17 pm

N649DL wrote:

It's not and I'm happy about it. My Brother-In-Law is from India and I had a ticket booked 2 years ago for the (2nd version INT'L) wedding with my sister and yanked it in J on DL/AF. Part of the reason was the Indian consulate in HOU didn't process my visa correctly, the others were the amount of money to spend on vaccines and also inter-travel on 3rd World Airlines within India.

My parents went and both had major issues with their flights on the way back too. My Mom's flight got diverted to Norway on the way home and my Dad's J class seat overheated because of the IFE system (inhaling fumes) on UAL to EWR and the crew did a shoddy job of re-accommodation. Not only that, but I had retroactive options as to why that flight was not diverted entirely for MX, but knowing UA and those EWR cabin crews I can make a few negative assumptions.

Without going into more semantics, culturally they're not my speed mainly for very oddball communication skills. And I've noticed this in the workplace too. I love the food though.


I've only been to India once, for work, and agree one needs to reset the mindset to experience a successful visit. Love the food as well. I guess since I pretty much only fly UA and *A partners I don't know how DL really compares, but I'm always curious why UA seems to create such general PR negativity and still continue to develop all their new international flying. I don't have any strong feelings toward DL one way or the other, but I hope they find a successful way back to India! Sounds like a new service is in the works!
Let's keep the skies friendly.
 
N649DL
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:05 pm

adambrau wrote:
N649DL wrote:

It's not and I'm happy about it. My Brother-In-Law is from India and I had a ticket booked 2 years ago for the (2nd version INT'L) wedding with my sister and yanked it in J on DL/AF. Part of the reason was the Indian consulate in HOU didn't process my visa correctly, the others were the amount of money to spend on vaccines and also inter-travel on 3rd World Airlines within India.

My parents went and both had major issues with their flights on the way back too. My Mom's flight got diverted to Norway on the way home and my Dad's J class seat overheated because of the IFE system (inhaling fumes) on UAL to EWR and the crew did a shoddy job of re-accommodation. Not only that, but I had retroactive options as to why that flight was not diverted entirely for MX, but knowing UA and those EWR cabin crews I can make a few negative assumptions.

Without going into more semantics, culturally they're not my speed mainly for very oddball communication skills. And I've noticed this in the workplace too. I love the food though.


I've only been to India once, for work, and agree one needs to reset the mindset to experience a successful visit. Love the food as well. I guess since I pretty much only fly UA and *A partners I don't know how DL really compares, but I'm always curious why UA seems to create such general PR negativity and still continue to develop all their new international flying. I don't have any strong feelings toward DL one way or the other, but I hope they find a successful way back to India! Sounds like a new service is in the works!


It's good that UA has been making the route work for years, but it's a ULH flight with mixed reviews of cabin crews. I think this video says it all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxv1REvKdxc

Darn right about resetting the mind to go there, at that time my mind wasn't ready for a reboot to say the least lol. I was irked when DL stopped AMS-BOM randomly. That seemed like a nice compromise instead of operating a nonstop to the US. I think it was inherited from NW.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:21 pm

tlecam wrote:
winginit wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

How is that a fact? There has been no launch. There isn't even a route.


Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.



Thanks for sharing; good to hear. Although this is starting to feel like "Waiting for Godot." (For anyone else who was subjected to the trials and tribulations of a liberal arts education :-))


tlecam - yes :lol:
 
winginit
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:38 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
winginit wrote:
Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.


That's a plan, not a launch. Initial plans have already been delayed. We can't trust this anymore than the last one.


IPFreely wrote:
winginit wrote:
Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.


That’s not reiterating. Reiterating means repeating the original statement. The original statement was route announcement in late 2018 and launch in 2019. In December we did not get a reiteration of that announcement, we got a new and different announcement. I’m expecting another new and different announcement in 1Q 2019.


The route and US point of origin will be announced prior to March 31, 2019. You're free to hold me to that.
 
voxkel
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:45 pm

I'm leaning towards ATL-BOM on the A359 for this route. Is there any chance, however, that DL will elect to fly to DEL instead, since the route is considerably shorter and 9W doesn't have an insignificant hub there?

However, one thing to keep in mind is that UA is starting daily SFO-DEL on top of 10x/wk AI. They very well could have started new routes like ORD-BOM or SFO-BLR but instead chose to go on the route with the highest demand (despite there being existence of AI flight on the route). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM work.

It is almost shocking AI could get away operating a route like BOM-JFK, and I think are only doing so because neither 9W nor DL have started. BOM is not really an AI hub (nearly all connections are via DEL), and JFK is not a *A hub, so this flight essentially caters exclusively to O/D (which is generally going to be higher yielding). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM A359 work, and I think its premium economy would be a good addition to the route, and force AI out of the market.

Another possibility is 9W operating JFK-BOM 77W and DL operating ATL-BOM A359. IIRC 9W used to operate BOM-BRU-JFK and later BOM-AUH-JFK but never nonstop.
 
gsg013
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:07 pm

voxkel wrote:
I'm leaning towards ATL-BOM on the A359 for this route. Is there any chance, however, that DL will elect to fly to DEL instead, since the route is considerably shorter and 9W doesn't have an insignificant hub there?

However, one thing to keep in mind is that UA is starting daily SFO-DEL on top of 10x/wk AI. They very well could have started new routes like ORD-BOM or SFO-BLR but instead chose to go on the route with the highest demand (despite there being existence of AI flight on the route). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM work.

It is almost shocking AI could get away operating a route like BOM-JFK, and I think are only doing so because neither 9W nor DL have started. BOM is not really an AI hub (nearly all connections are via DEL), and JFK is not a *A hub, so this flight essentially caters exclusively to O/D (which is generally going to be higher yielding). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM A359 work, and I think its premium economy would be a good addition to the route, and force AI out of the market.

Another possibility is 9W operating JFK-BOM 77W and DL operating ATL-BOM A359. IIRC 9W used to operate BOM-BRU-JFK and later BOM-AUH-JFK but never nonstop.


My thinking for ATL is via the connections in ATL. Across the entire southeastern United States if you are a DL flyer a flight ATL-BOM seems to make a lot of sense. To tell me that across the southeast they couldn't fill 32 J seats with a non-stop to india at a hefty premium seems to be strongly underestimating the market. IMHO the short hop over to ATL then on to India would make the trip very easy. I understand the huge Indian population in the NorthEast (I am originally from New York City) but living in Nashville now my options to get to India are mostly going up to NYC at this point.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:24 pm

I am a-ok with any US station except ATL. It is a geographically wrong location for a ULH hub, most passengers have to backtrack. Summer weather is bad, not sure about yields.
JFK may attract corporate contracts but too much competition, particularly from Chinese carriers, too much dependency on premium traffic, but doable.
BOS seems to be the best at present.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:08 pm

gsg013 wrote:
To tell me that across the southeast they couldn't fill 32 J seats with a non-stop to india at a hefty premium seems to be strongly underestimating the market.


What are the major economic ties between the South and Mumbai? Are there major Indian firms with a large manufacturing presence in the South?

I think NYC likely has stronger economic ties: Mumbai is the financial capital of India and NYC is obviously one of the leading financial cities in the world. Mumbai is also the entertainment capital of India, with NYC being a major center of the entertainment industry in the U.S. Not sure how many ties there are in that sector between the two countries, though...

gsg013 wrote:
living in Nashville now my options to get to India are mostly going up to NYC at this point.


Lucky you! That's actually a more direct Great Circle routing than over ATL! Actually, for pretty much any U.S.-India connecting itinerary, the Great Circle routing is more direct over NYC than over ATL.
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gsg013
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:34 pm

FSDan wrote:
gsg013 wrote:
To tell me that across the southeast they couldn't fill 32 J seats with a non-stop to india at a hefty premium seems to be strongly underestimating the market.


What are the major economic ties between the South and Mumbai? Are there major Indian firms with a large manufacturing presence in the South?

I think NYC likely has stronger economic ties: Mumbai is the financial capital of India and NYC is obviously one of the leading financial cities in the world. Mumbai is also the entertainment capital of India, with NYC being a major center of the entertainment industry in the U.S. Not sure how many ties there are in that sector between the two countries, though...

gsg013 wrote:
living in Nashville now my options to get to India are mostly going up to NYC at this point.


Lucky you! That's actually a more direct Great Circle routing than over ATL! Actually, for pretty much any U.S.-India connecting itinerary, the Great Circle routing is more direct over NYC than over ATL.


Agree that the GC Map might bring most southerners through NYC however many southern cities have shuttle style service over to ATL (almost hourly or two) If I want to connect on DL via JFK which I am doing in May on the way to Europe, there are only 2 daily flights BNA-JFK making my connection much longer than it would be if I were on the 38 min hop over to ATL.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:56 pm

gsg013 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
gsg013 wrote:
To tell me that across the southeast they couldn't fill 32 J seats with a non-stop to india at a hefty premium seems to be strongly underestimating the market.


What are the major economic ties between the South and Mumbai? Are there major Indian firms with a large manufacturing presence in the South?

I think NYC likely has stronger economic ties: Mumbai is the financial capital of India and NYC is obviously one of the leading financial cities in the world. Mumbai is also the entertainment capital of India, with NYC being a major center of the entertainment industry in the U.S. Not sure how many ties there are in that sector between the two countries, though...

gsg013 wrote:
living in Nashville now my options to get to India are mostly going up to NYC at this point.


Lucky you! That's actually a more direct Great Circle routing than over ATL! Actually, for pretty much any U.S.-India connecting itinerary, the Great Circle routing is more direct over NYC than over ATL.


Agree that the GC Map might bring most southerners through NYC however many southern cities have shuttle style service over to ATL (almost hourly or two) If I want to connect on DL via JFK which I am doing in May on the way to Europe, there are only 2 daily flights BNA-JFK making my connection much longer than it would be if I were on the 38 min hop over to ATL.


Fair point regarding connection times.

I do still think that most of the largest U.S.-BOM markets could be better served ex JFK, though.
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trav777
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:34 am

voxkel wrote:
I'm leaning towards ATL-BOM on the A359 for this route. Is there any chance, however, that DL will elect to fly to DEL instead, since the route is considerably shorter and 9W doesn't have an insignificant hub there?

However, one thing to keep in mind is that UA is starting daily SFO-DEL on top of 10x/wk AI. They very well could have started new routes like ORD-BOM or SFO-BLR but instead chose to go on the route with the highest demand (despite there being existence of AI flight on the route). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM work.

It is almost shocking AI could get away operating a route like BOM-JFK, and I think are only doing so because neither 9W nor DL have started. BOM is not really an AI hub (nearly all connections are via DEL), and JFK is not a *A hub, so this flight essentially caters exclusively to O/D (which is generally going to be higher yielding). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM A359 work, and I think its premium economy would be a good addition to the route, and force AI out of the market.

Another possibility is 9W operating JFK-BOM 77W and DL operating ATL-BOM A359. IIRC 9W used to operate BOM-BRU-JFK and later BOM-AUH-JFK but never nonstop.


the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.
 
alfa164
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:15 am

gsg013 wrote:
Agree that the GC Map might bring most southerners through NYC however many southern cities have shuttle style service over to ATL (almost hourly or two) If I want to connect on DL via JFK which I am doing in May on the way to Europe, there are only 2 daily flights BNA-JFK making my connection much longer than it would be if I were on the 38 min hop over to ATL.


I am not sure you assume a connection at JFK would be "much longer", since we haven't even seen a schedule yet...

:roll:
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:47 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
I am a-ok with any US station except ATL. It is a geographically wrong location for a ULH hub, most passengers have to backtrack.
BOS seems to be the best at present.

Good thing decisions on ULH routes aren't made purely (or even primarily) on geography....
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:56 am

LAX772LR wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
I am a-ok with any US station except ATL. It is a geographically wrong location for a ULH hub, most passengers have to backtrack.
BOS seems to be the best at present.

Good thing decisions on ULH routes aren't made purely (or even primarily) on geography....


You can't be serious...
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:03 pm

Anecdotal skyscanner ticket price data outbound 3/12/19 - return 3/26/19

All one-stops
ATL-BOM $590 (QR)
BOS-BOM $698 (QR)
JFK-BOM $716 (LX)
DTW-BOM $966 (VS)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:18 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
I am a-ok with any US station except ATL. It is a geographically wrong location for a ULH hub, most passengers have to backtrack. Summer weather is bad, not sure about yields.
JFK may attract corporate contracts but too much competition, particularly from Chinese carriers, too much dependency on premium traffic, but doable.
BOS seems to be the best at present.


If BOS is the best that DL can do there is no point in even trying. BOS doesn't have the volume of NYC. It doesn't have the Delta connections of JFK/ATL/DTW.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:10 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
I am a-ok with any US station except ATL. It is a geographically wrong location for a ULH hub, most passengers have to backtrack.
BOS seems to be the best at present.

Good thing decisions on ULH routes aren't made purely (or even primarily) on geography.

You can't be serious.

Quite serious.

Maybe you should try looking at a place called Los Angeles, as an example... it's got plenty of ULH, but unless you're going to Oceania, it's geographically "out of the way" for about 90% of the country, going to just about anywhere.

And yet it's the second busiest international and intercon gateway in the country. Hmm, how could that be?
Oh yeah, it's because longhaul is based mostly on its incredibly large premium traffic + enormous demographic diversity. Location is way down that list.

In contrast to that post, about the only superhubs that *are* what they are primarily due to location, are (funnily enough) the two large southeast transfer hubs (ATL and CLT) and to a lesser extent, the two large Texas hubs. MIA to an almost negligible extend due to the degree that the local market constitutes its flights.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:33 pm

LAX is US's leading O&D market, and ATL is not.

Just to rehash
Whatever APS books are saying Atlanta is in the South not on the East coast.
ATL-BOM is the longest of all, 600 miles more than BOS/DTW
ATL-BOM PDEW is 40 (DTW-BOM is 25)
ATL-BOM ticket prices are the lowest, both TK and QR will be very happy to trash DL's yields further.
ATL doesn't have any viable unserved feeder stations. Being the largest DL hub is meaningless.
Beyond its metro area, there are no Indians in a 400-mile radius of Atlanta.

In summary, BOS and JFK are better options,
 
DylanHarvey
Posts: 152
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:37 pm

trav777 wrote:
voxkel wrote:
I'm leaning towards ATL-BOM on the A359 for this route. Is there any chance, however, that DL will elect to fly to DEL instead, since the route is considerably shorter and 9W doesn't have an insignificant hub there?

However, one thing to keep in mind is that UA is starting daily SFO-DEL on top of 10x/wk AI. They very well could have started new routes like ORD-BOM or SFO-BLR but instead chose to go on the route with the highest demand (despite there being existence of AI flight on the route). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM work.

It is almost shocking AI could get away operating a route like BOM-JFK, and I think are only doing so because neither 9W nor DL have started. BOM is not really an AI hub (nearly all connections are via DEL), and JFK is not a *A hub, so this flight essentially caters exclusively to O/D (which is generally going to be higher yielding). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM A359 work, and I think its premium economy would be a good addition to the route, and force AI out of the market.

Another possibility is 9W operating JFK-BOM 77W and DL operating ATL-BOM A359. IIRC 9W used to operate BOM-BRU-JFK and later BOM-AUH-JFK but never nonstop.


the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.

Because the A350-900 is such a terrible aircraft, please explain how Cathay already fly the 359, albeit the 277t version(Delta have the 275t version) on 15+ hour routes. And once DL do retrofits with C+ added to the 359, it will be under 300 pax so that will help.
 
trav777
Posts: 163
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:02 pm

DylanHarvey wrote:
trav777 wrote:
voxkel wrote:
I'm leaning towards ATL-BOM on the A359 for this route. Is there any chance, however, that DL will elect to fly to DEL instead, since the route is considerably shorter and 9W doesn't have an insignificant hub there?

However, one thing to keep in mind is that UA is starting daily SFO-DEL on top of 10x/wk AI. They very well could have started new routes like ORD-BOM or SFO-BLR but instead chose to go on the route with the highest demand (despite there being existence of AI flight on the route). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM work.

It is almost shocking AI could get away operating a route like BOM-JFK, and I think are only doing so because neither 9W nor DL have started. BOM is not really an AI hub (nearly all connections are via DEL), and JFK is not a *A hub, so this flight essentially caters exclusively to O/D (which is generally going to be higher yielding). DL could definitely make JFK-BOM A359 work, and I think its premium economy would be a good addition to the route, and force AI out of the market.

Another possibility is 9W operating JFK-BOM 77W and DL operating ATL-BOM A359. IIRC 9W used to operate BOM-BRU-JFK and later BOM-AUH-JFK but never nonstop.


the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.

Because the A350-900 is such a terrible aircraft, please explain how Cathay already fly the 359, albeit the 277t version(Delta have the 275t version) on 15+ hour routes. And once DL do retrofits with C+ added to the 359, it will be under 300 pax so that will help.


maybe this is a translation problem here or something...perhaps you can point me to specifically where I said the A359 was a "terrible aircraft." You totally made that up. I said that the variants DL has won't do ATL-BOM with the payload they want.

Specify the routes, NYC-HKG?. Are you aware that Cathay flies with 280pax configs? This is 45 pax light of brochure pax spec. I mean I made the same point a couple times in the A350/DL thread, everyone PLEASE for the love of god stop talking about "the" A350 or "the" 789. ANY plane can fly further than brochure if you drop pax!!!! For example, the 789 does 7635 brochure nm at 253 pax. QF flies it 30 pax light of that and goes beyond brochure on PER-LHR by doing so! NZ flies 40pax heavy of brochure, consequently theirs do not fly as far. They do not magically inherit UA's range or QF's range bc the plane has the same decal on the side of it.

If DL is willing to drop payload, then the 359 can do the route. I said "with the payload DL wants." I cannot be much clearer than that.
 
Crazy4Planes
Posts: 95
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:05 pm

Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:59 pm

Just out of curiosity, why doesn't DL consider flights to Delhi?
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 468
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Crazy4Planes wrote:
Just out of curiosity, why doesn't DL consider flights to Delhi?


Because that would make too much sense.
 
airbazar
Posts: 9563
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:19 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I am wondering if DL might think out of the box a little and consider BOS-BOM-BOS?

IMO there are only 2 cities from where this route would work: JFK or BOS. The problem is DL doesn't run the A350 thru either of those and the 77L is too uncompetitive these days. DL also doesn't run the 77L thru BOS and i'm not sure about JFK. This route would have to be on the A359 there's just no other way around it.

MIflyer12 wrote:
If BOS is the best that DL can do there is no point in even trying. BOS doesn't have the volume of NYC. It doesn't have the Delta connections of JFK/ATL/DTW.

Similar yield + less competition + no backtracking conx + subsidy for being a new route + goodwill from Massport. Non-stop service to India has been on Massport's wish list for over a decade.

trav777 wrote:
the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.

Right. And yet SFO-SIN doesn't seem to be a problem with either the 789 or A359. Please :confused:
 
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spinotter
Posts: 511
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:35 pm

tlecam wrote:
winginit wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

How is that a fact? There has been no launch. There isn't even a route.


Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.



Thanks for sharing; good to hear. Although this is starting to feel like "Waiting for Godot." (For anyone else who was subjected to the trials and tribulations of a liberal arts education :-))


That liberal education was worth several million dollars to me in lifetime enjoyment. Is this rollout different from most new or resumed route launches? Taking longer? What about 9W?
 
trav777
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:43 pm

trav777 wrote:
the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.

Right. And yet SFO-SIN doesn't seem to be a problem with either the 789 or A359. Please :confused:


"THE" 359? There is no "the" 359. There are like 4 variants? 268t, 275t, 276t, and 280t. WHICH 359? In which config? "The" 789? There is no "the" 789. Every airline has a different config from QF at 220 pax to several at 295.

SQ's SFO-SIN sheet is on another thread, 5.85t/hr, 271t TOW, 7t or so fuel left at landing on a 276t variant, 253 pax. At 325pax (brochure), they're over MTOW. It went out at 271t with 103t out of 110t fuel aboard, burnt 96.3t. Add 7t of pax to get to brochure and they're overweight. Yeah they could drop a few tons of fuel to get to a 4.5t reserve or whatever, a point people made on that thread. But they will need more fuel to carry the additional 7t that distance, along with to carry the extra fuel itself. This puts the plane decidedly over 276t. Plane surely had cargo aboard, you'd have to drop that. 276t at that range is not happening on a brochure pax count, thus they fly with 253.

The LAX-SYD argument, someone posted a video of the FC on a "276" variant of DL (do they have 275 or 276??) with TOW at 275.4. It had 238pax, 25t cargo on that mission. Total load apparently would be around 48t give or take. You need 1600 more nm to do ATL-BOM. that exceeds 3 hrs of fuel, probably more like 4 given the fuel carrying fuel penalty. There goes all your cargo. You're still at 238pax. DL has 300 seats. See what I'm trying to say here? The 276t version won't do the route with a full load based on real world data. Never mind cargo. If DL adds 6t of pax, they'd be at 281t. This is why I say the 280t variant would probably get there with a brochure pax load but the other variants won't.

NZ's 789 config *will not* do SFO-SIN. Max still air for that config is around 7100nm. QF otoh flies at 220pax, consequently they probably are getting nearly 8000nm still air.
Last edited by trav777 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:45 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Anecdotal skyscanner ticket price data outbound 3/12/19 - return 3/26/19

All one-stops
ATL-BOM $590 (QR)
BOS-BOM $698 (QR)
JFK-BOM $716 (LX)
DTW-BOM $966 (VS)


That is why Detroit is far and away the best choice for Delta. Can you imagine with the superior product they offer and the convenience of a nonstop with ZERO competition what Delta could get as far as fares on DTW0-BOM at least $2000 in Y ATL with only 15 more PDEW than Detroit can't even compete with the returns that DTW-BOM could bring.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
airbazar
Posts: 9563
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:18 pm

trav777 wrote:
trav777 wrote:
the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.

Right. And yet SFO-SIN doesn't seem to be a problem with either the 789 or A359. Please :confused:


"THE" 359? There is no "the" 359. There are like 4 variants? 268t, 275t, 276t, and 280t. WHICH 359? In which config? "The" 789? There is no "the" 789. Every airline has a different config from QF at 220 pax to several at 295.


DL's A359 will do BOM-JFK/BOS without any problems and with more payload than DL needs. Does that answer your question?
You do realize that SFO-SIN is about TWO HOURS longer than BOM-JFK/BOS, right?

Correction: I think you were responding to a post about ATL-BOM. In that case you are correct. I on the other hand, was always talking about BOS/JFK.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:37 pm

spinotter wrote:
tlecam wrote:
winginit wrote:

Ed reiterated both in the December issue of Sky Magazine and I'm told at his leadership meeting in Atlanta last week that the formal route will be announced in 1Q and started in 2019.



Thanks for sharing; good to hear. Although this is starting to feel like "Waiting for Godot." (For anyone else who was subjected to the trials and tribulations of a liberal arts education :-))


That liberal education was worth several million dollars to me in lifetime enjoyment. Is this rollout different from most new or resumed route launches? Taking longer? What about 9W?



Likewise - I find my liberal arts education to be valuable in any number of ways.

I don’t have any hard data to back this up. It seems like many route announcements come with the information about the flight, plane etc... But that’s just my anecdotal observation.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
majano
Posts: 115
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Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:29 pm

trav777 wrote:
trav777 wrote:
the 359? A 275t variant or a 268? I doubt either will fly this route, nearly 7400nm, with a payload DL wants. The 268t won't get there with full pax, a 280t probably does; below that it would be dicey.

Right. And yet SFO-SIN doesn't seem to be a problem with either the 789 or A359. Please :confused:


"THE" 359? There is no "the" 359. There are like 4 variants? 268t, 275t, 276t, and 280t. WHICH 359? In which config? "The" 789? There is no "the" 789. Every airline has a different config from QF at 220 pax to several at 295.

SQ's SFO-SIN sheet is on another thread, 5.85t/hr, 271t TOW, 7t or so fuel left at landing on a 276t variant, 253 pax. At 325pax (brochure), they're over MTOW. It went out at 271t with 103t out of 110t fuel aboard, burnt 96.3t. Add 7t of pax to get to brochure and they're overweight. Yeah they could drop a few tons of fuel to get to a 4.5t reserve or whatever, a point people made on that thread. But they will need more fuel to carry the additional 7t that distance, along with to carry the extra fuel itself. This puts the plane decidedly over 276t. Plane surely had cargo aboard, you'd have to drop that. 276t at that range is not happening on a brochure pax count, thus they fly with 253.

The LAX-SYD argument, someone posted a video of the FC on a "276" variant of DL (do they have 275 or 276??) with TOW at 275.4. It had 238pax, 25t cargo on that mission. Total load apparently would be around 48t give or take. You need 1600 more nm to do ATL-BOM. that exceeds 3 hrs of fuel, probably more like 4 given the fuel carrying fuel penalty. There goes all your cargo. You're still at 238pax. DL has 300 seats. See what I'm trying to say here? The 276t version won't do the route with a full load based on real world data. Never mind cargo. If DL adds 6t of pax, they'd be at 281t. This is why I say the 280t variant would probably get there with a brochure pax load but the other variants won't.

NZ's 789 config *will not* do SFO-SIN. Max still air for that config is around 7100nm. QF otoh flies at 220pax, consequently they probably are getting nearly 8000nm still air.

Where have you accounted for the catering in our estimate of 48t payload for the DL flight from PEK?
 
trav777
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:17 pm

Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:49 pm

majano wrote:
Where have you accounted for the catering in our estimate of 48t payload for the DL flight from PEK?


catering is payload now? It's DOW

DL's A359 will do BOM-JFK/BOS without any problems and with more payload than DL needs. Does that answer your question?
You do realize that SFO-SIN is about TWO HOURS longer than BOM-JFK/BOS, right?

Correction: I think you were responding to a post about ATL-BOM. In that case you are correct. I on the other hand, was always talking about BOS/JFK.


Which 359 that DL has? The 276 or the 268? The 268 wouldn't get there (JFK-BOM at 6777nm) with a full pax load. The 276 would with 5t or so of cargo...I'm not sure how you conclude what cargo DL "needs"...

I'm also not sure what the relevance of SFO-SIN is...
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 468
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:38 am

I can't see an obvious choice for a routing or even an aircraft in this situation. If they do JFK-BOM, they have to contend with ruthless competition that will make ATL look like a walk in the park. Meanwhile, ATL-BOM still has TK and QR to contend with, but the bigger problem is the range to fly it. The A359 is basically ruled out leaving only the 77L. But even JFK-BOM has its own problem in that JFK isn't an A350 base so an aircraft will have to be rotated out whereas a 77L would be easier as JFK already has 777 ops. From a scheduling perspective, they would definitely prefer the 77L for JFK, but other routes need the range given the small fleet and the A350 is better suited for the route if not for the scheduling headache it causes. Thus with the A350 being ideal and 77L being available, the situation is basically a catch 22.
 
sabby
Posts: 322
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:11 pm

Re: Delta to serve Mumbai nonstop in 2019

Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:55 am

DL's current A359 can do 6952nm as per their config (https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US ... -a350.html), so JFK-BOM is within reach, they may need to block a few seats on BOM-JFK. If they upgrade the MTOW then they should be fine without restrictions on both legs.

I also found their 77E page (https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US ... r-777.html) and it says the range is 7423nm. Which means they don't need to rotate A359/77L from other stations if they decide on JFK.

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