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rotating14
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Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 3:41 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rolls-says


Looks like a bad situation is going to get worse.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:08 am

RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber
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Jouhou
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber


I know you have an inside perspective, so I have a question for you: Do you think these kinds of issues are going to happen with every new engine roll out from now on? It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.

Or has this always been the case, and I'm just too young to remember?
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Beatyair
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:43 am

I would rather these planes not even fly, until they get this figured out.
 
Chemist
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:51 am

The original 747s had big engine troubles early on.
 
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CARST
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 5:40 am

Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber


I know you have an inside perspective, so I have a question for you: Do you think these kinds of issues are going to happen with every new engine roll out from now on? It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.

Or has this always been the case, and I'm just too young to remember?


I don't have lightsabers inside perspective, but just looking back at history, engines seemed always at the maximum of the limit of technology available at the time of their debut. The 747 had to move EIS back, because the early engines could not be delivered fast enough. And also they were under the promised specifications. The whole ramp at the back then brand new Boeing factory in Everett was parked with shiny new 747s, that massively strechted Boeings finances at the time.

And many times the manufacturers pushed technology as far as they could, but were not able to meet specifications, because they promised too much. Think MD-11, 707 and many more cases. Very rarely did airplane were better than expected at EIS (like in the case of the 777). Also going back even longer, the Constellation and Boeing 337 Stratocruiser had massive problems with their first generation of engines, which suffered from lots of problems, which made it a regular case for these airplanes to land on two or three engines in their early years...

So from my outsider perspective, what we see now, is not different from what happened in the past century of aviation, at least in the past six or seven decades. The A330neo was late due to the new engines not being ready fast enough, the A320neo has problems ramping up production due to PW not delivering a reliable product, now the 787 gets its share of late engine problems, like 7 years after EIS or so...
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 6:08 am

CARST wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber


I know you have an inside perspective, so I have a question for you: Do you think these kinds of issues are going to happen with every new engine roll out from now on? It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.

Or has this always been the case, and I'm just too young to remember?


I don't have lightsabers inside perspective, but just looking back at history, engines seemed always at the maximum of the limit of technology available at the time of their debut. The 747 had to move EIS back, because the early engines could not be delivered fast enough. And also they were under the promised specifications. The whole ramp at the back then brand new Boeing factory in Everett was parked with shiny new 747s, that massively strechted Boeings finances at the time.

And many times the manufacturers pushed technology as far as they could, but were not able to meet specifications, because they promised too much. Think MD-11, 707 and many more cases. Very rarely did airplane were better than expected at EIS (like in the case of the 777). Also going back even longer, the Constellation and Boeing 337 Stratocruiser had massive problems with their first generation of engines, which suffered from lots of problems, which made it a regular case for these airplanes to land on two or three engines in their early years...

So from my outsider perspective, what we see now, is not different from what happened in the past century of aviation, at least in the past six or seven decades. The A330neo was late due to the new engines not being ready fast enough, the A320neo has problems ramping up production due to PW not delivering a reliable product, now the 787 gets its share of late engine problems, like 7 years after EIS or so...


I work in a sector that is very similar but different, and I see plenty of issues associated with the implementation of new designs and materials, but I have to say, it's nothing in comparison to what these engine manufacturers have been dealing with in recent years. Not just RR.
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2175301
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 6:37 am

Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber


I know you have an inside perspective, so I have a question for you: Do you think these kinds of issues are going to happen with every new engine roll out from now on? It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.

Or has this always been the case, and I'm just too young to remember?


While there have been many examples of delayed entry into service and initial problems in the first several years.... This level of problems 6.5 years after entry into service - especially as EIS was delayed a year or two from what was planned - appears to be fairly unique. I would not expect such significant problems on the "C" modification of the engine. A certainly, B perhaps,... C... hmmmm...

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 6:54 am

2175301 wrote:

While there have been many examples of delayed entry into service and initial problems in the first several years.... This level of problems 6.5 years after entry into service - especially as EIS was delayed a year or two from what was planned - appears to be fairly unique. I would not expect such significant problems on the "C" modification of the engine. A certainly, B perhaps,... C... hmmmm...

Have a great day,


I was going to make this point.
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StTim
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 7:13 am

Perhaps because this took so long to appear it is why it is so bad.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 8:53 am

Jouhou wrote:
It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.


I expect its more a loss of knowledge within the various companies than anything else. I see this occurring ever more frequently. People stop doing something because some process doc doesn't tell them to. Then months later the penny drops and "ahhh, that's why we did that". Crap. the last X months of data need to be scrapped.



Aside from that; I've serious issues with the mechanisms for requirements and even analysis reporting within any engineering company I've been involved with. The entire mindset hasn't moved on from the typewriter generation.

In an era where you can search a website like a.net for years old posts and threads at a few clicks - and draw upon keywords and related fields to aid a search - why oh why are we committing things to microsoft word?


It can take hours to trace through requirements from one low-level doc up the tree and back down to an associated low level doc. If this was properly committed to databases - it'd be two or three mouse clicks. No small wonder then that mistakes creep in.

This would also apply to any program specific documentation, such as certification.
 
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 9:06 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.


I expect its more a loss of knowledge within the various companies than anything else. I see this occurring ever more frequently. People stop doing something because some process doc doesn't tell them to. Then months later the penny drops and "ahhh, that's why we did that". Crap. the last X months of data need to be scrapped.



Aside from that; I've serious issues with the mechanisms for requirements and even analysis reporting within any engineering company I've been involved with. The entire mindset hasn't moved on from the typewriter generation.

In an era where you can search a website like a.net for years old posts and threads at a few clicks - and draw upon keywords and related fields to aid a search - why oh why are we committing things to microsoft word?


It can take hours to trace through requirements from one low-level doc up the tree and back down to an associated low level doc. If this was properly committed to databases - it'd be two or three mouse clicks. No small wonder then that mistakes creep in.

This would also apply to any program specific documentation, such as certification.


This is why I've made a point of collecting and reading through "outdated" technical materials at work. When someone wants to change a process because the way we do it makes no sense to them, I'm able to explain why we do it and in effect prevent what you just described. Similarly, I was somewhat horrified when an engineering tech proudly told me last week that she "cleaned up" by shredding all that useless old paper we had cluttered around. I hope I made photocopies already of anything I'd find useful.
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 11:26 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.


I expect its more a loss of knowledge within the various companies than anything else. I see this occurring ever more frequently. People stop doing something because some process doc doesn't tell them to. Then months later the penny drops and "ahhh, that's why we did that". Crap. the last X months of data need to be scrapped.


The map is not the territory. ( einstein: make your model as simple as possible but not simpler )

But the MBA and PHB types expect to come true with enough memos, PowerPoints and foot stamping.
This is nothing more than Cargo Cult. We are in the process of losing our rational processing capabilities.
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 11:41 am

I think it is astonishing how short memories are. There is now a RR turbine Blade problem. It has such a big effect because it appeared several years after the EIS of the engine and the bad effect is multiplied by the number of engines in service.
But the GEnx had also its problems. Do we have already forgotten the icing issue? That was mainly not so bad, because the numbers of engines in operation were lower. Both engines Trent 1000 and GEnx did not hit promised numbers before both had several PIPs and so on.
If people stopped remembering the icing issue of the GEnx, I have not seen the official declaration that it is fixed, so perhaps we will have stopped talking about the turbine blade issue in the next year.
RR admitted to its faults and seems to be in over gear trying to fix this issues.
 
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:01 pm

CARST wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber


I know you have an inside perspective, so I have a question for you: Do you think these kinds of issues are going to happen with every new engine roll out from now on? It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.

Or has this always been the case, and I'm just too young to remember?


I don't have lightsabers inside perspective, but just looking back at history, engines seemed always at the maximum of the limit of technology available at the time of their debut. The 747 had to move EIS back, because the early engines could not be delivered fast enough. And also they were under the promised specifications. The whole ramp at the back then brand new Boeing factory in Everett was parked with shiny new 747s, that massively strechted Boeings finances at the time.

And many times the manufacturers pushed technology as far as they could, but were not able to meet specifications, because they promised too much. Think MD-11, 707 and many more cases. Very rarely did airplane were better than expected at EIS (like in the case of the 777). Also going back even longer, the Constellation and Boeing 337 Stratocruiser had massive problems with their first generation of engines, which suffered from lots of problems, which made it a regular case for these airplanes to land on two or three engines in their early years...

So from my outsider perspective, what we see now, is not different from what happened in the past century of aviation, at least in the past six or seven decades. The A330neo was late due to the new engines not being ready fast enough, the A320neo has problems ramping up production due to PW not delivering a reliable product, now the 787 gets its share of late engine problems, like 7 years after EIS or so...

I personally think we had a period with too long between EIS of new engines. Most of the grey hairs in the industry were retired and took out the door too much tribal knowledge.

I think the next engines will be better, but how to sustain the knowledge base?

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:39 pm

This is the current split between GE and RR on the 787

Delivered 787s
GE 60% - RR 40%

Total orders (not counting the unknown, but there are not that many anyway):
GE 65% - RR 35%


The biggest issue for Airbus could be that RR might have issues with ramping up the production rate of the Trent XWB and Trent 7000 because of all the resources that are being put into solving the Trent 1000 issues instead. It could also have an effect on the development and testing schedule of engine PIPs for both the "Airbus engines". So the issues might not hit Airbus directly, but a knock-on effect could have some complications in the future. Of course RR will do everything to limit these knock-on effects as much as possible, they know that as the sole engine supplier for the A330neo and A350 Airbus will be very critical of any negative developments that could have a negative impact on both programs.
 
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:39 pm

The article is a bit troubling to me.

Quotes like:

The spike will occur ahead of a deadline next month for mandated inspections forced by durability problems, Rolls said in an emailed statement.

And:

The engine woes have prompted some carriers to place their 787s on shorter routes, giving them more operating time ahead of a June 9 inspection deadline mandated by the Federal Aviation Administration.

Seem to suggest that PHBs are treating the compliance date as a "deadline" rather than a target. Reeks of poor safety culture to me. Seems they're OK with dealing with an engine self-destructing in flight as long as they can get a few more hours out of the bird before it has to get inspected.

lightsaber wrote:
I personally think we had a period with too long between EIS of new engines. Most of the grey hairs in the industry were retired and took out the door too much tribal knowledge.

I think the next engines will be better, but how to sustain the knowledge base?

PHBs see engineers as targets for cost optimization. They don't see skill retention as a problem, and if they do, they see it as someone else's problem.
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WIederling
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:45 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Fact is there hasn't been an icing incident with the GENx for a few years now. Fact is also that the GENx is not subjected to the same restrictions that the RRs are.


No icing incidents due to FAA use limitations that avoid such icing.
i.e a nonFact ( no bovines no mouth and hoof disease :-)

The RR issue is a reduction in available in use time. ( How much actually? )
IMU it is not about brand new engines breaking for example their fan shaft.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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CARST
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CARST wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

I know you have an inside perspective, so I have a question for you: Do you think these kinds of issues are going to happen with every new engine roll out from now on? It seems like these issues are a result of pushing the limits of current materials and technology to achieve the efficiency gains being sought.

Or has this always been the case, and I'm just too young to remember?


I don't have lightsabers inside perspective, but just looking back at history, engines seemed always at the maximum of the limit of technology available at the time of their debut. The 747 had to move EIS back, because the early engines could not be delivered fast enough. And also they were under the promised specifications. The whole ramp at the back then brand new Boeing factory in Everett was parked with shiny new 747s, that massively strechted Boeings finances at the time.

And many times the manufacturers pushed technology as far as they could, but were not able to meet specifications, because they promised too much. Think MD-11, 707 and many more cases. Very rarely did airplane were better than expected at EIS (like in the case of the 777). Also going back even longer, the Constellation and Boeing 337 Stratocruiser had massive problems with their first generation of engines, which suffered from lots of problems, which made it a regular case for these airplanes to land on two or three engines in their early years...

So from my outsider perspective, what we see now, is not different from what happened in the past century of aviation, at least in the past six or seven decades. The A330neo was late due to the new engines not being ready fast enough, the A320neo has problems ramping up production due to PW not delivering a reliable product, now the 787 gets its share of late engine problems, like 7 years after EIS or so...

I personally think we had a period with too long between EIS of new engines. Most of the grey hairs in the industry were retired and took out the door too much tribal knowledge.

I think the next engines will be better, but how to sustain the knowledge base?

Lightsaber


Perhaps the engine manufacturers should keep the retired people in some form in the compay as advisors. I think Boeing kept Joe Sutter and many others as advisors years after they had retired...
 
ual747-600
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:50 pm

Hi all,

I don't post much and I'm not in the business so this may appear to be a silly idea. In an effort to minimize overall disruption to customers, I wonder if Boeing could get GE could increase production temporarily (since they are anyway in support of the 14/month rate) and deliver loaners to those affected airlines. From what I've read it would require different pylons but wouldn't that cost RR less than a out of service 787 does?

Just wondering

UAL747-600
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:55 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Tedd wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Guess what? Majority of the 787s out there are powered by GENx engines, which has been trouble-free for the past few years. The airframe itself is now a proven and reliable product that is more popular than any other widebody product when compared at a similar timeframe.

The party that should be worried is Airbus, with RR being the sole engine supplier on the A330neo and A350. There may not be any issues now, but if there is, Airbus and RR will be more heavily impacted than Boeing right now.


In your seemingly endless GE/Boeing bias you give false notions of problems where they don`t exist. Your last paragraph
is a typical example. & you your first one is misleading too. While there isn`t a 50-50 split on engine supply, RR have a larger
share than you allude, I`m not sure if RR have 40%, but it`s not far off that, so there are a lot of Dreamliner customers at risk
over Trent problems. You keep ignoring peoples remarks about GEnx problems over the course of the B787 program which
have had an impact on airlines that chose it......you should read-up on them.
Your notion that AB should be "worried" regarding A330Neo & A350 is ridiculous, particularly in relation to the Trent XWB
on the A350 which is not only the most fuel efficient turbine to date, but also one of the most reliable. The Neo Trent 7000
is a very close relation to Trent 1000, but by the time it comes into service any associated problems will have been cleared
just as they have with newer build Dreamliners fitted with the Trent 1000-Ten.
People can have bias, but when it holds you back from the facts, whats the point of it because you won`t be taken seriously?

Fact is there hasn't been an icing incident with the GENx for a few years now. Fact is also that the GENx is not subjected to the same restrictions that the RRs are.

Airbus should be worried. It just shows how inept RR is with solving issues that they need the airframe manufacturer to send a senior exec to guide them through. They may be clear now with their Trent XWB and Trent 7000s but then again the Trent 1000 was considered the more reliable engine up until a few years ago.


http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guida ... -08-12.pdf

Let us now see your "facts". 2016 is in your opinion years ago? This AD does not manage to be 2 years ago.

Why should Airbus be worried? One engine version the Trent 1000 C has those fan blade problems. There is no Trent 1000 installed on any Airbus made airplane.

Would you say because the GEnx had or has an icing problem, every new GE engine will have an icing problem for comparison, should Boeing now be worried?
The main think could be, that GE is a bit better in managing the press or its image.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:56 pm

Chemist wrote:
The original 747s had big engine troubles early on.

As did all three engine variants of the 777-200 and 777-200ER.

It happens. Testbedding and flying on the prototypes works wonderfully, but putting the motors out there into service shows up the long term issues thanks to a wider pool of engines sending back data to the manufacturer.

RR is at least throwing money and capacity to get the fixes out there as well as monitor affected engines. The Package C engines are safe enough to fly; any that show premature wear are monitored thanks to the manufacturer data centre having constant feedback. Visual inspection is going to be the next phase, then time off wing to rectify and modify.
 
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par13del
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 12:56 pm

So in the vein of GE engines also having problems, how many GE birds are now grounded awaiting the fix of the icing issue, how many are grounded due to the engine not meeting their expected performance, how many leases of older a/c are being taken up by airlines to provide interim lift while the engines are corrected?
 
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Channex757
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 1:06 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I think it is astonishing how short memories are. There is now a RR turbine Blade problem. It has such a big effect because it appeared several years after the EIS of the engine and the bad effect is multiplied by the number of engines in service.
But the GEnx had also its problems. Do we have already forgotten the icing issue? That was mainly not so bad, because the numbers of engines in operation were lower. Both engines Trent 1000 and GEnx did not hit promised numbers before both had several PIPs and so on.
If people stopped remembering the icing issue of the GEnx, I have not seen the official declaration that it is fixed, so perhaps we will have stopped talking about the turbine blade issue in the next year.
RR admitted to its faults and seems to be in over gear trying to fix this issues.

The GEnx icing issue is not fixed. Operators still need to avoid icing conditions. GE however handles its PR better.

My understading of the GEnx issue is that it would potentially need a complete redesign of the core to correct! Overcooling is the problem; supercooled droplets of water hit the compressor face and the temperature of that turbomachinery is zero degrees celsius. In the Trent 1000 it's 200 degrees. So that supercooled water hits metal at the freezing point of water and guess what? Ice.

This is shed using a bypass door system but it's only a work-around and not a fix. It also adds to SFC. GE has MacGuyvered it so far. The GEnx remains at risk from icing.
 
7673mech
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 1:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
RR is tripling production.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1IU2NE

Worse? Yes. For long,? No. A bad mistake, but it will be overcome.

Lightsaber


I guess the schedule disruptions and lost revenue are not a big deal?
You make it sound like it's nothing big.
It is.
 
StTim
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 1:34 pm

It will still be less than the entire fleet being grounded for battery containment modifications - and many on here claimed that was a nothing burger.
 
chimborazo
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 1:58 pm

My BA flight to LAX on a 787 on 4th June cancelled due to this. Had a message about 5 weeks ago to call and the operator firstly informed it was because of RR engine issues and they were being pulled for maintenance which I thought was pretty cool: an actual reason instead of some bull. Now on 380 upstairs - which I had deliberately avoided in my flight selection because you can hear someone fart ten rows away!
 
uta999
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 2:41 pm

With 700 delivered in near record time for a W/B, I would say after a bad start it is doing very well. Even with the RR issue which will be sorted by next year. Airbus have struggled to build 150 A350 so far, but the 787 is the one getting bad PR. There are simply more of them in service.
Your computer just got better
 
N212R
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 3:00 pm

StTim wrote:
Perhaps because this took so long to appear it is why it is so bad.


Then ask yourself WHY it has taken so long for the powers that be to "expose" these serious liabilities in their products? Not a pretty picture.
 
N212R
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 3:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I think the next engines will be better, but how to sustain the knowledge base?


Knowledge is becoming an increasingly rare commodity in this fragmented world of beguiling bits and bites. Tell someone that they have the entire world of "knowledge" at their fingertips and watch them begin to believe it.
 
StTim
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 3:09 pm

N212R wrote:
StTim wrote:
Perhaps because this took so long to appear it is why it is so bad.


Then ask yourself WHY it has taken so long for the powers that be to "expose" these serious liabilities in their products? Not a pretty picture.


I am not quite in the conspiracy camp that you are. I know that fixes on parts such as a turbine blade take a lot of time to implement and certify.

Now I do not know if RR, BA or the operators had any advance warnings that the blades were wearing at rates not expected or not. IF not I would think RR is wondering how they could have picked it up much earlier. It would after all be in their interest to find such a problem early rather than late.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 3:10 pm

Exciting times for subs!
@DadCelo
 
senatorflyer
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 3:14 pm

Apperantly the nickname of the early BAE 146 was ‚Bring another engine‘.
 
sgbroimp
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:01 pm

I would not like to be an engine maker. I sense the customer (airframe makers and airlines) want engines that weigh nothing, burn nothing and cost nothing......................
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:13 pm

par13del wrote:
So in the vein of GE engines also having problems, how many GE birds are now grounded awaiting the fix of the icing issue, how many are grounded due to the engine not meeting their expected performance, how many leases of older a/c are being taken up by airlines to provide interim lift while the engines are corrected?


So you declare an engine issue is only a problem if an airliner gets grounded?

Here is another point, after the grounding, the engines are fixed.
 
dynkrisolo
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 4:17 pm

I wouldn't categorize this as getting worse. The ADs have two deadlines for Package C powered airplanes depending on whether they fly on long or short routes, like the article says:

Just under a third of those engines have failed the initial checks required by regulators for planes that fly more than two hours and 20 minutes from the nearest diversionary airport.


The second deadline is for airplanes flying less than 2:20, my guess is it will be mostly ANA 787s flying on domestic routes. So, I doubt the upcoming spike will not be a surprise.

My rudimentary understanding is Package C was pushed to its design limits. AFAIK, Trent1000-TEN is a major redesign. IMO,, worse comes to worst, R-R can offer customers what they have already offered to Norwegian by eventually replacing all the Package C engines with TEN engines. An expensive solution, but at least it's an option that they know they can offer.
 
CCGPV
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 6:13 pm

Chemist wrote:
The original 747s had big engine troubles early on.


I believe the very first Pan Am 747 flight had to swap aircraft due to engine issues.
Stay curious
 
Tedd
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 6:29 pm

chimborazo wrote:
My BA flight to LAX on a 787 on 4th June cancelled due to this. Had a message about 5 weeks ago to call and the operator firstly informed it was because of RR engine issues and they were being pulled for maintenance which I thought was pretty cool: an actual reason instead of some bull. Now on 380 upstairs - which I had deliberately avoided in my flight selection because you can hear someone fart ten rows away!


I don`t want to hear someone fart ten rows away, but it`s better than two rows away! Bring back the Dreamliner :)
 
Tedd
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 6:43 pm

[*]
par13del wrote:
So in the vein of GE engines also having problems, how many GE birds are now grounded awaiting the fix of the icing issue, how many are grounded due to the engine not meeting their expected performance, how many leases of older a/c are being taken up by airlines to provide interim lift while the engines are corrected?


I see your point, but I don`t think members are making light of the RR issue, a fiasco to be sure, but a response to some pretty
daft comments re Trent 1000 vs GEnx.
 
Flyglobal
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 7:07 pm

One Question to one who may know.

Boeing sent Keith Leverkuhn to oversee and support.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ngine-woes

Who can describe what he may actually do? He will not be working side on side with the mechanics, that should be clear, but how is a job like this actually done together with RR Executives?

Anyone?


Flyglobal

PS: Keith should get an Anet Account and answer here.
 
neutronstar73
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Wed May 30, 2018 8:15 pm

DocLightning wrote:
2175301 wrote:

While there have been many examples of delayed entry into service and initial problems in the first several years.... This level of problems 6.5 years after entry into service - especially as EIS was delayed a year or two from what was planned - appears to be fairly unique. I would not expect such significant problems on the "C" modification of the engine. A certainly, B perhaps,... C... hmmmm...

Have a great day,


I was going to make this point.


Concur. This seems really odd, especially for a company of RR's reputation and capability. They've really dropped the ball on this engine and, at this point, I don't know if their rep will recover for a while.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 2:49 pm

ual747-600 wrote:
Hi all,

I don't post much and I'm not in the business so this may appear to be a silly idea. In an effort to minimize overall disruption to customers, I wonder if Boeing could get GE could increase production temporarily (since they are anyway in support of the 14/month rate) and deliver loaners to those affected airlines. From what I've read it would require different pylons but wouldn't that cost RR less than a out of service 787 does?

Just wondering

UAL747-600

In short, there's no way to throw money at the problem.

9 women can't produce a baby in a month.

A lot of the engine parts require long lead times and are made with very specific tooling that also comes with long lead times.

The vendors would have to have made excessive investments in tooling a long time ago if they thought it was needed.

These days every capital purchase gets scrubbed very hard and buying tooling just to be prepared in case the need arises just isn't done.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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jakubz
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 3:08 pm

CARST wrote:

Perhaps the engine manufacturers should keep the retired people in some form in the compay as advisors. I think Boeing kept Joe Sutter and many others as advisors years after they had retired...


Yes, but that assumes those workers want to come back. If there is a pattern of hiring sprees followed by layoffs, I'd be looking for a more stable company to work for.
KORD>RJAA>KORD day trip? Why not! The beauty of SA!
Yes, I use ICAO codes
Flown: PA-28, PA-38
Passenger on: A319/A320, A380, 737, 747-400, 757, 767, 777, 787-8/9
Finally got on a 747!

My comment are my own. I don't speak for any company.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 3:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
ual747-600 wrote:
Hi all,

I don't post much and I'm not in the business so this may appear to be a silly idea. In an effort to minimize overall disruption to customers, I wonder if Boeing could get GE could increase production temporarily (since they are anyway in support of the 14/month rate) and deliver loaners to those affected airlines. From what I've read it would require different pylons but wouldn't that cost RR less than a out of service 787 does?

Just wondering

UAL747-600

In short, there's no way to throw money at the problem.

9 women can't produce a baby in a month.

A lot of the engine parts require long lead times and are made with very specific tooling that also comes with long lead times.

The vendors would have to have made excessive investments in tooling a long time ago if they thought it was needed.

These days every capital purchase gets scrubbed very hard and buying tooling just to be prepared in case the need arises just isn't done.

Good summary. No would add vendors have been forced to become lean. Lean means only the contractually required surge production is available. For example, on the A350 RR must buy production tooling to incentivise vendors for production ramps.

As you note, just in case tooling is just not being purchased. Due to the global evonoic growth, the machine tools required have an 18+ month lead time and forget about a discount on the $2+ million dollar prices (3D printing, or 6-degree motion machining automated machines.

The tightest constraints are the casting houses which really impacts these parts. It is too late for RR to buy Hitchner more machines (I believe they are the casting house for these parts). In particular as Pratt has slammed them for more parts! I've heard rumors Pratt is bringing more casting in house (I don't work for Pratt, so I must go off rumor) to accelerate production; so if Hitchner shorts CFM, GE or Pratt... It is a permanent loss of business.

Every part of the manufacturing system seems strained. In particular due to automation (robots). A casting vendor doesn't care if they cast turbine blades or electric motor parts, it is all about profit. :(

Heck, one of my projects recently was outbid for engineering services and manufacturing of tooling by six flags refurbishment of rides! :faint:

It has been a long (too long...) since I've seen precision manufacturing capacity so utilized. To say the least, the Houston shops aren't bidding so much (oil). Please recall Southern California and Houston is the two concentrations of USA precision manufacturing. When oil booms, aerospace losses access to many precision job shops.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 4:47 pm

lightsaber wrote:
It has been a long (too long...) since I've seen precision manufacturing capacity so utilized. To say the least, the Houston shops aren't bidding so much (oil). Please recall Southern California and Houston is the two concentrations of USA precision manufacturing. When oil booms, aerospace losses access to many precision job shops.

Kind of a shame that Connecticut isn't in that list any more, but that's reality.

Back in my father's/uncle's day (1960s-1990s or so) CT had lots of high-end machining businesses that serviced Pratt & Whitney, Avco-Lycoming, Sikorsky, Electric Boat, Colt Firearms, and countless other firms too small to name.

Now, everyone wants to go in to "financial services" so they don't get their fingers smashed like my father/uncles did.

I don't blame them, but I think we could have done a lot more to retain such industries and have the best of both worlds, since not everyone is built for office jobs.

For instance in my dad's/uncle's days they all got their start through apprenticeships, and in my day none were offered.

These days big corporations seem to think people come out of the womb all trained to do what is asked of them.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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litz
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 5:27 pm

The question is not whether or not the problems will get fixed ... because they will. Too much is at stake.

The better question is what is this going to do to RR? It's going to cost a phenomenal amount of money, enough that one has to wonder about the financials affecting the company as a whole.
 
cat3appr50
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 5:59 pm

In the current engineering and design age of powerful statics, dynamics, thermodynamics, strength of materials, machine design, computational fluid dynamics, AutoCad and 3D graphics, etc. software, volumes of leading edge metallurgical data and experience, powerful non-destructive examination techniques, robotic based manufacturing and assembly (and it’s very high precision), extremely technically complex and accurate bench testing routines and procedures, etc., it’s difficult to understand these engine issues and the seeming meme of…oh well, we have the problems, so let’s just try to figure it out now (after commercialization) and fix it on some time schedule.

The investors in Boeing (and IMO they make the best and most pilot user friendly and reliable aircraft in the world) are certainly not happy about RR (or any other engine manufacturer) issues with current leading edge aircraft engines for the B787. This has placed Boeing in a difficult position, and airlines using the B787 also in a difficult position, including flight route issues and associated higher costs.

Aircraft engine manufacturers (and their sub suppliers on the supply chain) just need to, in the time tested and proven engineering and manufacturing sense…do it right the first time (and not…do it right the 2nd or 3rd time, after commercialization). It’s just that simple. A few less Lbs. Fuel on the Lbs. Fuel/NM-Seat performance metric doesn’t mean much if the long term reliability of an engine is not where it needs to be.

Just my opinion.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 6:43 pm

cat3appr50 wrote:
In the current engineering and design age of powerful statics, dynamics, thermodynamics, strength of materials, machine design, computational fluid dynamics, AutoCad and 3D graphics, etc. software, volumes of leading edge metallurgical data and experience, powerful non-destructive examination techniques, robotic based manufacturing and assembly (and it’s very high precision), extremely technically complex and accurate bench testing routines and procedures, etc., it’s difficult to understand these engine issues and the seeming meme of…oh well, we have the problems, so let’s just try to figure it out now (after commercialization) and fix it on some time schedule.

You seem to be suggesting that with all those tools and techniques that various tradeoffs such as performance vs reliability have become easier.

I'm pretty confident that they have not, because so much more is expected than the old days.

My understanding is in the old days, you simply went conservative and built in lots of margin.

In the modern era, the commercial reality is that one can't just build in lots of margin.

Thus all the tools that are expensive to acquire and take lots of time to master.

It's pretty clear this problem wasn't seen till Package C was out in the field and had accumulated many hours.

We don't know if RR had predictive data showing this was likely to happen, but based on actions I think we can presume they did not.

Thus the only way to know would have been to build lots of test engines and run them many hours till these problems showed up.

Of course it's hard to know how long one should wait to determine an unanticipated problem is not showing up...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Egerton
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 6:59 pm

CARST wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CARST wrote:

I don't have lightsabers inside perspective, but just looking back at history, engines seemed always at the maximum of the limit of technology available at the time of their debut. The 747 had to move EIS back, because the early engines could not be delivered fast enough. And also they were under the promised specifications. The whole ramp at the back then brand new Boeing factory in Everett was parked with shiny new 747s, that massively strechted Boeings finances at the time.

And many times the manufacturers pushed technology as far as they could, but were not able to meet specifications, because they promised too much. Think MD-11, 707 and many more cases. Very rarely did airplane were better than expected at EIS (like in the case of the 777). Also going back even longer, the Constellation and Boeing 337 Stratocruiser had massive problems with their first generation of engines, which suffered from lots of problems, which made it a regular case for these airplanes to land on two or three engines in their early years...

So from my outsider perspective, what we see now, is not different from what happened in the past century of aviation, at least in the past six or seven decades. The A330neo was late due to the new engines not being ready fast enough, the A320neo has problems ramping up production due to PW not delivering a reliable product, now the 787 gets its share of late engine problems, like 7 years after EIS or so...


I personally think we had a period with too long between EIS of new engines. Most of the grey hairs in the industry were retired and took out the door too much tribal knowledge.

I think the next engines will be better, but how to sustain the knowledge base?

Lightsaber


Perhaps the engine manufacturers should keep the retired people in some form in the company as advisors. I think Boeing kept Joe Sutter and many others as advisors years after they had retired...


I hold a different view. As the problems were caused prior to the EIS, that puts these results being caused by the engineers prior to about 7 years ago. It was only in July 2015 that the current CEO got started in the job. About first thing he worked out was that RR had an insane number of folk having the authority to comment and withhold approval on matters for decision. They were not adding much. The result was that he got rid of some 200 very senior folk (including engineers) who were slowing things down.

It follows that these and many like them were also clogging up the work about 7 years ago, and a fact that they were not useful enough to catch the issues when they presumably should have been caught? A secondary issue perhaps was RR had no test engines with enough time on the clock to discover the issues RR are now facing? They perhaps should regularly have had high time airline engines taken off the wing and put on to the test rig? So the test rig engines were always at least 2 or 3 years ahead of the fleet leader. Maybe that is why they have acquired the use of two existing overseas test rigs to get the XWB and TEN ahead to their fleets.

Overall, having too many folk in a team slows things down, and can be a big negative. The body of knowledge will look after itself on the cloud if a search is organised competently.
 
TC957
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Re: Rolls-Royce: More 787 groundings imminent.

Thu May 31, 2018 7:19 pm

Has anyone got a list of current grounded 787's ?

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