Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:55 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZQN is the main reason they didn't go for a single fleet of A321NEO's

So, they thought CHC and WLG could fill the 321NEO's fine? If ZQN was the main reason, then wouldn't they have split the order more in favour of the 321NEO's?

Cheers,

C.


As I said, ZQN is the main reason they didn't get a single fleet of A321. Over think the split if you wish.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:03 am

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Not forgetting that ICN could probably have a lot of belly freight ...

100% - Korea is our fifth largest export destination, and not many households in New Zealand would be without at least one product from Korea, be it Samsung, LG or Hyundai.

Cheers,

C.


Not saying you're wrong but most of those consumables go via Sea

Sure, most, but there's plenty of i) time-sensitive and ii) highly premium goods that can't / don't - even if NZ only captures a small amount of this, it'd be a great opportunity for them.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:06 am

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZQN is the main reason they didn't go for a single fleet of A321NEO's

So, they thought CHC and WLG could fill the 321NEO's fine? If ZQN was the main reason, then wouldn't they have split the order more in favour of the 321NEO's?

Cheers,

C.


As I said, ZQN is the main reason they didn't get a single fleet of A321. Over think the split if you wish.

It's not over-thinking - the difference between the 320NEO and 321NEO in capacity isn't small, plus CHC and WLG are much bigger and more important markets than ZQN (where factors like frequency competitiveness come into play). ZQN being the main reason for this fleet decision, as you say it is, just doesn't make sense.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:31 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
So, they thought CHC and WLG could fill the 321NEO's fine? If ZQN was the main reason, then wouldn't they have split the order more in favour of the 321NEO's?

Cheers,

C.


As I said, ZQN is the main reason they didn't get a single fleet of A321. Over think the split if you wish.

It's not over-thinking - the difference between the 320NEO and 321NEO in capacity isn't small, plus CHC and WLG are much bigger and more important markets than ZQN (where factors like frequency competitiveness come into play). ZQN being the main reason for this fleet decision, as you say it is, just doesn't make sense.

Cheers,

C.


So NZ needs the A320 as the A321 isn't able to get the required performance on Tasman operations out of ZQN. So we now accept NZ must have a split order due to limitations on their ZQN international services but still wants the size of the A321 elsewhere.

Given their is now a split order, it's opened considerations such as (but not limited to) MX scheduled and unscheduled coverage, 10 year growth and additional seasonal capacity ex ZQN, reverting back to A320 on some WLG and CHC services which were borderline and now also provides that MX coverage and other potential growth/new routes.

So instead of just ordering the numbers of frames required for the current ZQN operations, NZ has decided to added a few more A320's vs the A321's.

If ZQN could manage A321's then you'd have most likely seen a single A321 fleet. I can't say 100% for sure as it never happened.

What I am saying is the main reason a split order came about is due to ZQN. The way it was split (numbers) was part of the wider fleet planing strategy when the order was made after it was acknowledged that ZQN couldn't handle the A321.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:54 am

NZ6 wrote:
What I am saying is this is the main reason a split order came about is due to ZQN.

NZ6 wrote:
So NZ needs the A320 as the A321 isn't able to get the required performance on Tasman operations out of ZQN.

Wow, ok - a big decision to make for a port that, for some parts of a year, only receives 3x weekly SYD / MEL flights internationally, from NZ.

That argument though assumes that ZQN must be served by the NEO's - CEO's will still be in the NZ fleet, and could continue to/from ZQN?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:02 am

Does anyone know whether NZ is concerned about prospects for its EZE route in the short-medium term? I ask, because:

1. Argentina has just received an IMF bailout, the odds of a recession there before year-end have jumped from 24% to 68%, and the local currency is down a massive 32% this year alone (the worst decline of all emerging markets).

2. Brazil's economy is also under massive pressure - its currency is the lowest its been in a few years, and its growth forecasts have been slashed by almost 50% since the start of the year. The trucker strike hasn't helped things either.

I appreciate that a weak currency makes these countries cheaper to visit, but NZ relies on some ex-South America traffic.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:06 am

With the amount of Australians and New Zealanders visiting the Cook Islands surging by 13-14% in the past year alone, what are the odds of new services there from NZ, like BNE / CHC / WLG - RAR? It'll be very interesting to see whether VA pulls out of AKL / CHC - RAR, and re-deploys that capacity to the Tasman, to better fight with NZ.

See: https://blueswandaily.com/cook-islands- ... -may-2018/.

Cheers,

C.
 
Megatop747-412
Posts: 309
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2000 1:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:35 am

NZ321 wrote:
So it seems OKI won't get a black tail?


Just saw OKI parked up at by the Air NZ Engineering Hangar on my way to drop off the Mrs at AKL this morning. Confirmed that it arrived in "basic" SQ livery - the Blue on SQ's tail's background and SQ's cheatline, but missing SQ's logo on the tail and of course the "Singapore Airlines" titles.

Not sure if Air NZ plan to re-paint it or apply any titles/logo to it though...
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:13 am

Megatop747-412 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So it seems OKI won't get a black tail?


Just saw OKI parked up at by the Air NZ Engineering Hangar on my way to drop off the Mrs at AKL this morning. Confirmed that it arrived in "basic" SQ livery - the Blue on SQ's tail's background and SQ's cheatline, but missing SQ's logo on the tail and of course the "Singapore Airlines" titles.

Not sure if Air NZ plan to re-paint it or apply any titles/logo to it though...

Does it cost that much money to apply (and then remove at the end of the lease) the basic "Air New Zealand" title? Surely some NZ identifier would be preferable?

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:44 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Does anyone know whether NZ is concerned about prospects for its EZE route in the short-medium term? I ask, because:

1. Argentina has just received an IMF bailout, the odds of a recession there before year-end have jumped from 24% to 68%, and the local currency is down a massive 32% this year alone (the worst decline of all emerging markets).

2. Brazil's economy is also under massive pressure - its currency is the lowest its been in a few years, and its growth forecasts have been slashed by almost 50% since the start of the year. The trucker strike hasn't helped things either.

I appreciate that a weak currency makes these countries cheaper to visit, but NZ relies on some ex-South America traffic.

Cheers,

C.


It's something to monitor. You need to remember a couple of things

1. NZ's pretty committed to South America long term
2. We've seen US and the EU go through similar issues.
3. This is why you don't put all your eggs in one basket.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:05 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZQN being the main reason for this fleet decision, as you say it is, just doesn't make sense.

I think that you ARE over-thinking: it's entirely plausible to me that ZQN was the main reason, but that there were other factors that also influenced NZ against an all-A321 order.

As a general suggestion for all of us: it's easier when we don't dissect responses literally; most people don't weigh the shades of meanings of words when they write - they just write and what comes out comes out. Read for the broad sense, don't try to interpret when there's no deeper meaning! :smile:
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:37 am

DavidByrne wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZQN being the main reason for this fleet decision, as you say it is, just doesn't make sense.

I think that you ARE over-thinking: it's entirely plausible to me that ZQN was the main reason ...

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I still can't fathom how a destination that sees one (or sometimes no) international flight from NZ a day for parts of the year can be the core factor in a commercial decision worth about $1.6 billion at list prices?! :lol:

NZ6 wrote:
You need to remember a couple of things ...

I'd urge you to read up on Argentina, as it's not in a situation similar to that which the EU and US went through in the recent past - e.g. its currency decline, its inflation rate etc. Hopefully it gets better. As you say, NZ should be in it for the long run.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:56 am

planemanofnz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZQN being the main reason for this fleet decision, as you say it is, just doesn't make sense.

I think that you ARE over-thinking: it's entirely plausible to me that ZQN was the main reason ...

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I still can't fathom how a destination that sees one (or sometimes no) international flight from NZ a day for parts of the year can be the core factor in a commercial decision worth about $1.6 billion at list prices?! :lol:

NZ6 wrote:
You need to remember a couple of things ...

I'd urge you to read up on Argentina, as it's not in a situation similar to that which the EU and US went through in the recent past - e.g. its currency decline, its inflation rate etc. Hopefully it gets better. As you say, NZ should be in it for the long run.

Cheers,

C.


What would you have done with the A320/A321's then?

I am familiar with Argentina. My point being, other regions NZ operates into have had economic trouble previously (in various forms and definitions etc) NZ worked through it making adjustments etc. I'm aware of what you've posted and I'm clarifying NZ's position on it which is what you asked. Will adjustments be made? that's why I'm aware of it, it's being monitored.

You've asked a question then told me I'm wrong. Not sure why you asked, but anyway the info is there.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:57 am

Megatop747-412 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So it seems OKI won't get a black tail?


Just saw OKI parked up at by the Air NZ Engineering Hangar on my way to drop off the Mrs at AKL this morning. Confirmed that it arrived in "basic" SQ livery - the Blue on SQ's tail's background and SQ's cheatline, but missing SQ's logo on the tail and of course the "Singapore Airlines" titles.

Not sure if Air NZ plan to re-paint it or apply any titles/logo to it though...

Does anyone know what the latest on the BR 77W lease is? Has it been successfully negotiated yet? I'm personally hoping that it'll stay in BR colours - we haven't seen BR colours in AKL since the 332's flew here from TPE in ~2008. Lovely livery! :hyper:
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:04 am

NZ6 wrote:
What would you have done with the A320/A321's then?

Would it have been possible to simply continue using CEO's at ZQN, seeing as they're going to be staying in the fleet anyway?

Some CEO's are just ~6 years old, right? They'll be around for 10-15 years? That gives time to re-evaluate new / better options.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:10 am

It seems that a decision on PPQ could be made soon:

Air Chathams general manager Duane Emeny said they were hoping to decide whether they would pick up the service late next week.

See: https://fisherbusinessnews.com/2018/06/ ... and-route/.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:36 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
What would you have done with the A320/A321's then?

Would it have been possible to simply continue using CEO's at ZQN, seeing as they're going to be staying in the fleet anyway?

Some CEO's are just ~6 years old, right? They'll be around for 10-15 years? That gives time to re-evaluate new / better options.

Cheers,

C.


The regional A320CEO’s were delivered from 2003-06, it sounds like 6 are owned of which 3 will stay on a while longer and move to domestic, wouldn’t be the most flexible but not impossible to rotate them into ZQN from AKL then onto SYD from there.
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Posts: 10114
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:22 am

planemanofnz wrote:
It seems that a decision on PPQ could be made soon:

Air Chathams general manager Duane Emeny said they were hoping to decide whether they would pick up the service late next week.

See: https://fisherbusinessnews.com/2018/06/ ... and-route/.

Cheers,

C.

Be very shocked if Air Chathams don't pick up PPQ considering the deals they are getting - which is way better then what NZ got
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
PA515
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:02 am

Deepinsider wrote:
PA515 wrote:
ZK-OKI presently en route SIN-AKL as NZ6018.
http://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-oki

And ZK-OKC due back from SIN in the next two days.
http://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-okc

PA515

How do Flightradar get to know in advance, what individual planes
are scheduled to do?


I believe Flightradar gets the information from flight plans, but I don't know how they acquire it. Flightaware has similar info and also gives the routing. I sometimes check Flightaware for NZ31 EZE-AKL and the full routing doesn't appear until after half way through the flight.

PA515
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:07 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Megatop747-412 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So it seems OKI won't get a black tail?


Just saw OKI parked up at by the Air NZ Engineering Hangar on my way to drop off the Mrs at AKL this morning. Confirmed that it arrived in "basic" SQ livery - the Blue on SQ's tail's background and SQ's cheatline, but missing SQ's logo on the tail and of course the "Singapore Airlines" titles.

Not sure if Air NZ plan to re-paint it or apply any titles/logo to it though...

Does anyone know what the latest on the BR 77W lease is? Has it been successfully negotiated yet? I'm personally hoping that it'll stay in BR colours - we haven't seen BR colours in AKL since the 332's flew here from TPE in ~2008. Lovely livery! :hyper:

BR 77W has been unofficially confirmed and will be in Star Alliance livery.

As for the SQ 77E, it should be gone by the end of the year.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:13 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The regional A320CEO’s were delivered from 2003-06, it sounds like 6 are owned of which 3 will stay on a while longer and move to domestic, wouldn’t be the most flexible but not impossible to rotate them into ZQN from AKL then onto SYD from there.

Regional or not, NZ has 320CEO's which were delivered as late as 2016, such as ZK-OXM - surely these new frames could be dedicated to ZQN, if need be?

I can't fathom how, with that option on the table, NZ determined that ZQN should be the main reason to modify a commercial decision worth < NZD 1 billion?!

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:13 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
What would you have done with the A320/A321's then?

Would it have been possible to simply continue using CEO's at ZQN, seeing as they're going to be staying in the fleet anyway?

Some CEO's are just ~6 years old, right? They'll be around for 10-15 years? That gives time to re-evaluate new / better options.

Cheers,

C.


The regional A320CEO’s were delivered from 2003-06, it sounds like 6 are owned of which 3 will stay on a while longer and move to domestic, wouldn’t be the most flexible but not impossible to rotate them into ZQN from AKL then onto SYD from there.


Yeah it's viable, but was it the best option?
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:16 am

Zkpilot wrote:
BR 77W has been unofficially confirmed and will be in Star Alliance livery.

Any idea when it will be officially confirmed? If it's meant to be here by August, that's not giving a lot of time to sort things out.

In any event, it's good that the Star livery will be used - any idea whether there will be a replacement of 'Eva Air' with 'Air NZ'?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:18 am

NZ6 wrote:
Yeah it's viable, but was it the best option?

The point is - continuation of CEO frames on ZQN international flights was/is possible, and so that, in tandem with ZQN's relative influence and size in NZ's portfolio, should not have rendered ZQN the "main" factor in the decision to split the NEO order?

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:22 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
The regional A320CEO’s were delivered from 2003-06, it sounds like 6 are owned of which 3 will stay on a while longer and move to domestic, wouldn’t be the most flexible but not impossible to rotate them into ZQN from AKL then onto SYD from there.

Regional or not, NZ has 320CEO's which were delivered as late as 2016, such as ZK-OXM - surely these new frames could be dedicated to ZQN, if need be?

I can't fathom how, with that option on the table, NZ determined that ZQN should be the main reason to modify a commercial decision worth < NZD 1 billion?!

Cheers,

C.


Yes they do but those are domestic frames without life rafts so no good for international flying, sure they could probably refit some but that’s a moot point now.

They probably see ZQN has potential for growth while some of the WLG/CHC flights don’t need a bigger aircraft but could have used one with lower frequency, however add ZQN in the mix and it made sense to have a mixed fleet.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:25 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Yes they do but those are domestic frames without life rafts so no good for international flying, sure they could probably refit some but that’s a moot point now.

I really don't see re-fitting 1 or 2 frames with life rafts as being a sufficient enough deterrent, particularly in the context of a fleet strategy decision worth <NZD 1 billion.

ZK-NBT wrote:
... some of the WLG/CHC flights don’t need a bigger aircraft.

Bingo - yes. Particularly if NZ wants to continue to attract premium traffic, the ability to maintain frequency would've been a key driver in the decision-making process.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:33 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Yes they do but those are domestic frames without life rafts so no good for international flying, sure they could probably refit some but that’s a moot point now.

I really don't see re-fitting 1 or 2 frames with life rafts as being a sufficient enough deterrent, particularly in the context of a fleet strategy decision worth <NZD 1 billion.

ZK-NBT wrote:
... some of the WLG/CHC flights don’t need a bigger aircraft.

Bingo - yes. Particularly if NZ wants to continue to attract premium traffic, the ability to maintain frequency would've been a key driver in the decision-making process.

Cheers,

C.



The thing is though they will now have 6 A320NEO’s to play with rather than 1 or 2, much more flexible although as i said earlier 3 CEO’s are staying a bit longer and going to domestic which could be rotated through ZQN for international.

I guess re WLG/CHC it came down to operational costs re the potential for larger frames. Without VA on those routes will be interesting to see how loads go.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:37 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The thing is though they will now have 6 A320NEO’s to play with rather than 1 or 2, much more flexible although as i said earlier 3 CEO’s are staying a bit longer and going to domestic which could be rotated through ZQN for international.

You're right - the flexibility from the split order is a good thing.

However, I'd just say that they didn't even need to have "1 or 2" 320NEO's for ZQN though - they could've just i) used the international CEO's which are staying or ii) re-fitted 1 or 2 domestic CEO's to international standard. Therefore ZQN, while a factor, IMO, couldn't have been the main factor. My own opinion is that the desire to maintain and/or grow frequencies ex-CHC and WLG (hindered by using the much larger 321NEO's there) played a more decisive role in the overall decision-making process.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:45 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Yeah it's viable, but was it the best option?

The point is - continuation of CEO frames on ZQN international flights was/is possible, and so that, in tandem with ZQN's relative influence and size in NZ's portfolio, should not have rendered ZQN the "main" factor in the decision to split the NEO order?

Cheers,

C.


Sure if that's the conclusion you have come to... however ZQN was the main reason NZ ordered a mix of A321/A320 NEO for the Tasman (fact). At the time I was involved with this project.

There area reasons why the CEO's were not used but I'm confident you've got the covered too and in the interests of keeping things happy for all - I'll leave my point as is and feel free to believe otherwise :-)
Last edited by NZ6 on Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:47 am

NZ6 wrote:
There area reasons the CEO's were not used but I'm confident you've got the covered too.

Not at all - any insight on that decision would be appreciated!

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3911
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:25 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
The regional A320CEO’s were delivered from 2003-06, it sounds like 6 are owned of which 3 will stay on a while longer and move to domestic, wouldn’t be the most flexible but not impossible to rotate them into ZQN from AKL then onto SYD from there.

Regional or not, NZ has 320CEO's which were delivered as late as 2016, such as ZK-OXM - surely these new frames could be dedicated to ZQN, if need be?

I can't fathom how, with that option on the table, NZ determined that ZQN should be the main reason to modify a commercial decision worth < NZD 1 billion?!

Cheers,

C.


Yes they do but those are domestic frames without life rafts so no good for international flying, sure they could probably refit some but that’s a moot point now.

They probably see ZQN has potential for growth while some of the WLG/CHC flights don’t need a bigger aircraft but could have used one with lower frequency, however add ZQN in the mix and it made sense to have a mixed fleet.


They also have an reduced MTOW by around 7tones, which on an 3-4 hour sector could become an major issue.

These A320CEO’s for domestic are the unlimate low cost version, with LED lighting added in to make people thing they are flash.
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4386
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:03 pm

Megatop747-412 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
So it seems OKI won't get a black tail?


Just saw OKI parked up at by the Air NZ Engineering Hangar on my way to drop off the Mrs at AKL this morning. Confirmed that it arrived in "basic" SQ livery - the Blue on SQ's tail's background and SQ's cheatline, but missing SQ's logo on the tail and of course the "Singapore Airlines" titles.

Not sure if Air NZ plan to re-paint it or apply any titles/logo to it though...

Given that Air New Zealand has been getting most of their 777s repainted at SIN recently, I think it is fair to say that if there were any plans to paint it, they would have done it there, before ferrying it to New Zealand.


planemanofnz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZQN being the main reason for this fleet decision, as you say it is, just doesn't make sense.

I think that you ARE over-thinking: it's entirely plausible to me that ZQN was the main reason ...

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I still can't fathom how a destination that sees one (or sometimes no) international flight from NZ a day for parts of the year can be the core factor in a commercial decision worth about $1.6 billion at list prices?! :lol:


Because Air New Zealand values fleet flexibiliy and thus it makes more sense to have a "subfleet" of eight A320neo aircraft, rather than a "subfleet" of, say, three A320neo aircraft?

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
What would you have done with the A320/A321's then?

Would it have been possible to simply continue using CEO's at ZQN, seeing as they're going to be staying in the fleet anyway?

Some CEO's are just ~6 years old, right? They'll be around for 10-15 years? That gives time to re-evaluate new / better options.


The ones you're referring to are Domestic A320s. Domestic A320s can't operate ETOPS flights.

ZK-NBT wrote:
The regional A320CEO’s were delivered from 2003-06, it sounds like 6 are owned of which 3 will stay on a while longer and move to domestic, wouldn’t be the most flexible but not impossible to rotate them into ZQN from AKL then onto SYD from there.

Two questions: 1) does anyone here know which specific A320ceos are owned and 2) can we assume that International A320s that are being migrated to the Domestic A320 fleet will keep their IFE systems?



planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Yeah it's viable, but was it the best option?

The point is - continuation of CEO frames on ZQN international flights was/is possible, and so that, in tandem with ZQN's relative influence and size in NZ's portfolio, should not have rendered ZQN the "main" factor in the decision to split the NEO order?


Think about it; the A320NEO gives the biggest fuelburn differential (as compared to a CEO) on longer routes. Logical conclusion here; the more transtasman sectors that A320NEOs can operate (as compared to CEOs), the better return the airline will get on its investment. Similarly, the A320NEO's more powerful engines give it a lot more lifting power when departing from constrained airports. A320CEOs are nearly always payload restricted on flights to Melbourne/Sydney, so the A320NEO should go some way to help alleviate this. :smile:
First to fly the 787-9
 
NZ321
Posts: 1231
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:40 pm

I didn't know that the CEOs were payload restricted on trans tasman flights to SYD / MEL. Interesting that US carriers routinely fly their A320s on routs of 5-6 hours from coast to coast and yet NZ struggles with across the ditch. Is that because of their `1-class high density layout?
Plane mad!
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4386
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:53 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I didn't know that the CEOs were payload restricted on trans tasman flights to SYD / MEL.

I think you misunderstood me; they're only restricted when departing ZQN due to runway distance and OEI considerations. Even 737-800SFPs have payload restrictions when going ZQN-MEL (unless of course there's a strong breeze blowing straight down the runway).
First to fly the 787-9
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:44 pm

zkojq wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I didn't know that the CEOs were payload restricted on trans tasman flights to SYD / MEL.

I think you misunderstood me; they're only restricted when departing ZQN due to runway distance and OEI considerations. Even 737-800SFPs have payload restrictions when going ZQN-MEL (unless of course there's a strong breeze blowing straight down the runway).

I didn't know that either. If they're restricted to MEL, they'd be restricted to BNE too, as BNE is further away from ZQN than MEL.

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:29 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I can't fathom how, with that option on the table, NZ determined that ZQN should be the main reason to modify a commercial decision worth < NZD 1 billion?!

That's possibly because the other factors, to which we are not privy, were less significant that the ZQN factor, which may have been the "main" factor", but which in sum tipped the balance in favour of a mixed order. Given that we don't know what the other factors were, it's not that hard to imagine, logically, that they might have been highly significant, notwithstanding that they weren't the "main" factors.

That you cannot fathom it is almost certainly because you are not in possession of full information. Why would we ever assume that we could (or even should) fully understand a commercial decision made by a company behind closed doors?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
Posts: 3911
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:49 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I didn't know that the CEOs were payload restricted on trans tasman flights to SYD / MEL. Interesting that US carriers routinely fly their A320s on routs of 5-6 hours from coast to coast and yet NZ struggles with across the ditch. Is that because of their `1-class high density layout?


There are many different versions of the A320CEO allot of it is just paper related, its like buying an Home Licence vs an Professional licence for software. Airlines will pay Airbus for certain price depending on what options they select. For example the MTOW is chosen by the airline, and then an certificate is issued for that aircraft.

Lower MTOW = cheaper landing fee's, hence NZ's Domestic and International fleet have different MTOW rates.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:22 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
That you cannot fathom it is almost certainly because you are not in possession of full information.

It's only my opinion, based on public information - not insider NZ knowledge. If I could see the insider information, perhaps I'd change my mind, but I can't.

Cheers,

C.
 
DougS
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:23 pm

For those wondering what would be involved in converting domestic CEO's to Tasman ops, this is an inexhaustive list of changes required: HF radios fitted, new galley fitted, new landing gear fitted, fee to be paid to Airbus for the increased gross weight, rafts and increased emergency equipment, modified cargo smoke suppression. I am sure they are already maintained to EDTO standard so that shouldn't be an issue.
What no one has brought up yet I think is that the ZQN ramp had a weight restriction on it. Gates 2-8 are restricted to 74500kg. An A321 is pretty much there before you even put fuel in it...
 
User avatar
ernestxwb
Posts: 55
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:10 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:33 am

Zkpilot wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Megatop747-412 wrote:

Just saw OKI parked up at by the Air NZ Engineering Hangar on my way to drop off the Mrs at AKL this morning. Confirmed that it arrived in "basic" SQ livery - the Blue on SQ's tail's background and SQ's cheatline, but missing SQ's logo on the tail and of course the "Singapore Airlines" titles.

Not sure if Air NZ plan to re-paint it or apply any titles/logo to it though...

Does anyone know what the latest on the BR 77W lease is? Has it been successfully negotiated yet? I'm personally hoping that it'll stay in BR colours - we haven't seen BR colours in AKL since the 332's flew here from TPE in ~2008. Lovely livery! :hyper:

BR 77W has been unofficially confirmed and will be in Star Alliance livery.

As for the SQ 77E, it should be gone by the end of the year.


Any rough time frame of when this 77W could join our fleet?
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:48 am

ernestxwb wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Does anyone know what the latest on the BR 77W lease is? Has it been successfully negotiated yet? I'm personally hoping that it'll stay in BR colours - we haven't seen BR colours in AKL since the 332's flew here from TPE in ~2008. Lovely livery! :hyper:

BR 77W has been unofficially confirmed and will be in Star Alliance livery.

As for the SQ 77E, it should be gone by the end of the year.


Any rough time frame of when this 77W could join our fleet?

I don’t know that but I would imagine that once the peak Northern Summer period is over (around August) it should be able to be done. That’s a guess though.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
PA515
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:38 am

ernestxwb wrote:
Any rough time frame of when this 77W could join our fleet?


Pretty sure Luxon said August in an NZ Herald interview. At the Investor Day presentation he said Air NZ had signed a letter of intent and he had personally inspected the aircraft.

The only BR 77W in the 'Star Alliance' colours is B-16715 (L/N 810). It's a Dec 2009 delivery, so one year older than ZK-OKM.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:58 am

The 14 June Air NZ 2018 Investor Day presentation transcript is now on the Air NZ website.

http://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2018 ... script.pdf

The A320 fleet is discussed from the fourth paragraph on page 46.

The owned A320NEOs and A321NEOs will be paid for in cash to bring liquidity down to the new target level.

As mentioned in the Slides, three regional A320ceos will transfer to domestic later in 2018 as they are replaced by regional A321NEOs. These A320ceos will in turn be replaced by three domestic configured A321NEOs in 2020.

The four leased domestic A320ceos (ZK-OAB, ZK-OJQ, ZK-OJR and ZK-OJS) will also be replaced by domestic configured A321NEOs, two in 2022 and two in 2024, resulting in a domestic fleet of 13 x A320ceos and 7 x A321NEOs.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:04 am

zkojq wrote:
Two questions: 1) does anyone here know which specific A320ceos are owned and 2) can we assume that International A320s that are being migrated to the Domestic A320 fleet will keep their IFE systems?


Re: 1)
The 01 June 2017 Investor Day presentation said six were now owned. I believe these were ZK-OJH, OJI, OJK, OJM, OJN and OJO.

ZK-OJI and ZK-OJM were initially owned, then sold to and leased back from Air NZ leasing company 'Zeal 320' which they later stopped using.

ZK-OJH, ZK-OJN and ZK-OJO were owned by AerCap (formerly ILFC). AerCap reports to shareholders the sale of A320s of about the same age.

ZK-OJK was leased from BBAM and Air NZ no longer appears on the BBAM website as a client.

The other seven regional A320s:
ZK-OJA, ZK-OJB and ZK-OJG were owned by Macquarie. ZK-OJA and ZK-OJG previously owned by ILFC, and ZK-OJB previously by Lombard.
ZK-OJC and ZK-OJE were owned by SMBC, and before that by Lombard.
ZK-OJD and ZK-OJF were owned by GA Telesis, and before that by Lombard.

PA515
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:22 am

zkojq wrote:
Because Air New Zealand values fleet flexibiliy and thus it makes more sense to have a "subfleet" of eight A320neo aircraft, rather than a "subfleet" of, say, three A320neo aircraft?


zkojq wrote:
Think about it; the A320NEO gives the biggest fuelburn differential (as compared to a CEO) on longer routes. Logical conclusion here; the more transtasman sectors that A320NEOs can operate (as compared to CEOs), the better return the airline will get on its investment. Similarly, the A320NEO's more powerful engines give it a lot more lifting power when departing from constrained airports. A320CEOs are nearly always payload restricted on flights to Melbourne/Sydney, so the A320NEO should go some way to help alleviate this. :smile:


Both points are 100% valid.

You can also liken it to shuffling deck chairs around a bit. I'm really conscious that I use the word 'strategy' a lot in these forums but it's exactly what is is ("plan of action designed to achieve a long-term or overall aim")

We all know when you place an air order for aircraft the more you buy, typically the better the deal you get. There's also many other advantages, favorable delivery slots, more buying power for ancillary products associated to the order such as IFE etc. So back to shuffling deck chairs, NZ would look at it's entire A320 fleet and sub fleets (Short Haul, Domestic) and decide it's a way of potentially phasing out original frames and/or growing capacity while adding more efficient aircraft onto longer routes.

My point being it's about long term network and fleeting planning which includes growth and aircraft utilization.

planemanofnz wrote:
zkojq wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I didn't know that the CEOs were payload restricted on trans tasman flights to SYD / MEL.

I think you misunderstood me; they're only restricted when departing ZQN due to runway distance and OEI considerations. Even 737-800SFPs have payload restrictions when going ZQN-MEL (unless of course there's a strong breeze blowing straight down the runway).

I didn't know that either. If they're restricted to MEL, they'd be restricted to BNE too, as BNE is further away from ZQN than MEL.

Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
That you cannot fathom it is almost certainly because you are not in possession of full information.

It's only my opinion, based on public information - not insider NZ knowledge. If I could see the insider information, perhaps I'd change my mind, but I can't.

Cheers,

C.


I think some of the frustration is when strong opinions are held and criticism is given on something which many of us don't know or have the finer details of

I'm a massive believe in the four stages of competence model
Image
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:29 am

PA515 wrote:
The 14 June Air NZ 2018 Investor Day presentation transcript is now on the Air NZ website.

http://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2018 ... script.pdf

The A320 fleet is discussed from the fourth paragraph on page 46.

The owned A320NEOs and A321NEOs will be paid for in cash to bring liquidity down to the new target level.

As mentioned in the Slides, three regional A320ceos will transfer to domestic later in 2018 as they are replaced by regional A321NEOs. These A320ceos will in turn be replaced by three domestic configured A321NEOs in 2020.

The four leased domestic A320ceos (ZK-OAB, ZK-OJQ, ZK-OJR and ZK-OJS) will also be replaced by domestic configured A321NEOs, two in 2022 and two in 2024, resulting in a domestic fleet of 13 x A320ceos and 7 x A321NEOs.

PA515


Thanks for the link,

This is what's I've been saying from page 46

"So fleet, so the fleet team looks at a wide range of issues form the technical right through
the strategic. Any decision we make, even if it's a small decision, really needs to be made
in the context of where we want to be in the long term. I mean, fleet decisions are for the
long term typically and we want to make sure that we can have a complete set of options
for the future and we have a plan to get to the long term fleet that we want to support our
growth strategy"
 
NZ6
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:33 am

PA515 wrote:
The 14 June Air NZ 2018 Investor Day presentation transcript is now on the Air NZ website.

http://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2018 ... script.pdf

PA515


This is actually a good read for those who didn't get to watch the presentation.

I also like this which confirms both replacements are being considered as part of the 772 replacement

"What I would point out though is
that we always - the decisions we make in those spaces really need to think about the long
term. So if you think towards the end of the decade, we'll then have the opportunity to
consider replacement options for the 777-300 fleet. So we need to make sure that any
decisions we make right now, think about options that we'll have then, and taking the two
together"
 
zkncj
Posts: 3911
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:25 am

PA515 wrote:
The 14 June Air NZ 2018 Investor Day presentation transcript is now on the Air NZ website.

http://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2018 ... script.pdf

The four leased domestic A320ceos (ZK-OAB, ZK-OJQ, ZK-OJR and ZK-OJS) will also be replaced by domestic configured A321NEOs, two in 2022 and two in 2024, resulting in a domestic fleet of 13 x A320ceos and 7 x A321NEOs.

PA515


So effectively saying expect an order shortly for an order of 7x A321NEO's for the domestic fleet?

Then maybe some CS300s to replace the A320CEO's?
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4386
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:32 am

PA515 wrote:
The four leased domestic A320ceos (ZK-OAB, ZK-OJQ, ZK-OJR and ZK-OJS) will also be replaced by domestic configured A321NEOs, two in 2022 and two in 2024, resulting in a domestic fleet of 13 x A320ceos and 7 x A321NEOs.


Boo. Guess I'm going to have to invest in a new airliners.net account. :(

Interesting to see that there will be a dedicated A321NEO domestic subfleet. I thought that would be something to be avoided. I guess that there's plenty of traffic on trunk routes to justify them though.

PA515 wrote:
Re: 1)
The 01 June 2017 Investor Day presentation said six were now owned. I believe these were ZK-OJH, OJI, OJK, OJM, OJN and OJO.

ZK-OJI and ZK-OJM were initially owned, then sold to and leased back from Air NZ leasing company 'Zeal 320' which they later stopped using.

ZK-OJH, ZK-OJN and ZK-OJO were owned by AerCap (formerly ILFC). AerCap reports to shareholders the sale of A320s of about the same age.

ZK-OJK was leased from BBAM and Air NZ no longer appears on the BBAM website as a client.

The other seven regional A320s:
ZK-OJA, ZK-OJB and ZK-OJG were owned by Macquarie. ZK-OJA and ZK-OJG previously owned by ILFC, and ZK-OJB previously by Lombard.
ZK-OJC and ZK-OJE were owned by SMBC, and before that by Lombard.
ZK-OJD and ZK-OJF were owned by GA Telesis, and before that by Lombard.

PA515

Thanks for that, much appreciated.
First to fly the 787-9
 
NZ321
Posts: 1231
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:33 am

7 A321s would be quite an injection of capacity into the domestic fleet. Not holding my breath for C series, sorry. Even though I'd love to see it come to fruition.
Plane mad!

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos