NZ6
Posts: 1171
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:01 pm

zkncj wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Passengers on 3 aircraft were ordered to go through security again after a security breach at AKL this morning. It is believed that a female passenger bypassed security as she was running late for her flight

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... dreds.html


This has happened way to many times this year, when is AKL going to get its act together as sort out that exit from the jet arrivals? It should really have staff on the door patrolling it.


AKL? Try Aviation Security Service.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1171
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:02 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
I wonder if the demand has dropped off?

I don't think so:

- Korean visitor arrivals to New Zealand are +13% on last year (compared to +8% for Australia).
- New Zealand visitor arrivals to Korea are -1% on last year (compared to -7% for Australians).

Also note that:

- According to Stats NZ, business-related arrivals from Korea grew ~30% between 2017 - 2018.
- AKL Airport thinks that South Korea has the most un-met demand of any market to / from AKL.

Image

See:
- https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/marke ... uth-korea/.
- https://kto.visitkorea.or.kr/eng/touris ... /inout.kto.
- http://www.tourism.australia.com/en/mar ... s-usa.html.
- https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz ... sentations.
- https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... nuary-2018.

In light of the market, this is likely a KE-specific issue, no? It could be a combination of several factors at play:

- Koreans are picking cheaper one-stop options to come to New Zealand, like CX/D7 (KE is very expensive).
- KE's reputation has tanked in Korea (due to several scandals and investigations), benefiting other airlines.
- KE wants to squeeze more yield (AKL is the only KE 748 city without competition - they'd get away with it).

In any event, I am really disappointed to see this from KE, and hope that NZ seriously considers ICN soon.

Cheers,

C.


It won't happen.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:22 pm

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Passengers on 3 aircraft were ordered to go through security again after a security breach at AKL this morning. It is believed that a female passenger bypassed security as she was running late for her flight

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... dreds.html


This has happened way to many times this year, when is AKL going to get its act together as sort out that exit from the jet arrivals? It should really have staff on the door patrolling it.


AKL? Try Aviation Security Service.


And another breach at International.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:12 am

NZ6 wrote:
It won't happen.

Only 2 weeks ago, you said: My opinion on ICN has changed from a few months ago and I now give ICN an opportunity now ... (post 380).

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1171
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:15 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
It won't happen.

Only 2 weeks ago, you said: My opinion on ICN has changed from a few months ago and I now give ICN an opportunity now ... (post 380).

Cheers,

C.


And?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:15 am

a7ala wrote:
Its pretty misleading. Of course its cheaper to fly longer on a per km basis than shorter distances (AKL-LHR is usually not more than twice the cost of AKL-SIN). Thats because the fixed costs of flying can be spread over a longer distance.

Yet NOU, POM, VLI and other short-haul international flights were not as bad as AKL, WLG, CHC or ZQN.

a7ala wrote:
Of more interest are the differences where the distances are similar eg. ZQN/WLG vs AKL/CHC.

I agree - ZQN in particular is very expensive. Perhaps WLG will come down now with a wide-body ex-MEL?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:37 am

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
It won't happen.

Only 2 weeks ago, you said: My opinion on ICN has changed from a few months ago and I now give ICN an opportunity now ... (post 380).

Cheers,

C.


And?

It would help the forum (or at least, me) if you explained (in more than a one, two or three-word reply) just why it is that:

1. You changed your mind on NZ and ICN from just a few months ago, such that "I now give ICN an opportunity now"
2. You now assert that "It won't happen" - which, in light of no specificity in quoting me, I take to be about NZ at ICN.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1171
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:50 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Only 2 weeks ago, you said: My opinion on ICN has changed from a few months ago and I now give ICN an opportunity now ... (post 380).

Cheers,

C.


And?

It would help the forum (or at least, me) if you explained (in more than a one, two or three-word reply) just why it is that:

1. You changed your mind on NZ and ICN from just a few months ago, such that "I now give ICN an opportunity now"
2. You now assert that "It won't happen" - which, in light of no specificity in quoting me, I take to be about NZ at ICN.

Cheers,

C.


My "opinion" has absolutely no connection to what "will happen".

I give it an opportunity if NZ had an alliance and / or as the Korean Kiwi population matures and we get second and third generation Koreans living here.

You've looked at the Stats NZ website and comments from AKL airport and come to a conclusion that South Korea is a strong route for NZ and it's massively undeserved. You've also said cargo links are strong and listed heavy household electronic goods which are sent via sea.

This is a great example of how stats can send you astray. You're probably not working in the industry and/or don't understand it completely. Korean's are massively KE loyal, to the point where a number of carriers in NZ don't even attempt to compete with KE on the NZ-KE market. KE holds between 96-98% of the market and no matter what airlines do they can't shift that.

Opening a route does not entitle you to a particular sized slice of the pie. I could mention one airline who attempted to undercut KE on a competitive schedule. Pushed it relatively hard to Korean agents and the Korean community. Not even a nibble from them.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:13 am

CZ to send 789 to AKL from 28 October 18

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 60802?s=21
Forum Moderator
 
planemanofnz
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:31 am

NZ6 wrote:
My "opinion" has absolutely no connection to what "will happen".

So even though NZ won't fly to ICN, you somehow still think that there's an opportunity that they will fly to ICN? What?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:35 am

qf789 wrote:
CZ to send 789 to AKL from 28 October 18

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 60802?s=21

It's not yet showing on CZ's website / booking system - I wonder if this will replace the 332 or the 77W.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1171
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:51 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
My "opinion" has absolutely no connection to what "will happen".

So even though NZ won't fly to ICN, you somehow still think that there's an opportunity that they will fly to ICN? What?

Cheers,

C.


What I originally said was;

"My opinion on ICN has changed from a few months ago and I now give ICN an opportunity"

Remember I originally said no way to ICN.

I've never said there an opportunity they will fly there. I merely stated my personal opinion / view / outlook had changed on a new route to ICN but how long before operations become viable and how this comes about is undetermined.

That aside, reality is ICN won't happen anytime soon.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:08 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Passengers on 3 aircraft were ordered to go through security again after a security breach at AKL this morning. It is believed that a female passenger bypassed security as she was running late for her flight

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... dreds.html


This has happened way to many times this year, when is AKL going to get its act together as sort out that exit from the jet arrivals? It should really have staff on the door patrolling it.


AKL? Try Aviation Security Service.


Partly is AKL at fault, it is there bad terminal design that is allowing this to happen so many times and added lack of AVSEC at the exit point.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:10 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ must be taking a hit at EZE - Australian bookings to Argentina have tumbled, with the drop one of the worst of any market.

We know that Australian traffic to EZE takes up 40% of NZ's EZE service, so that trend from Australia is a really big problem.

Image

... normally a fall in a country’s currency will lead to a surge in bookings as the destination becomes tangibly better value for international visitors. However, a severe decline which is triggered by a domestic economic and political crisis, can actually have the opposite effect and put off visitors, at least in the short term.

See: https://blueswandaily.com/argentinas-fi ... in-demand/.

Cheers,

C.


EZE must not be doing to bad, its just been increased to 6x weekly for this coming summer peak season https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status/1012430946530783232
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:47 am

planemanofnz wrote:
qf789 wrote:
CZ to send 789 to AKL from 28 October 18

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 60802?s=21

It's not yet showing on CZ's website / booking system - I wonder if this will replace the 332 or the 77W.

Cheers,

C.


The 789 is suppose to be replacing the A332

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 6259537921
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ZK-NBT
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Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:27 am

qf789 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
qf789 wrote:
CZ to send 789 to AKL from 28 October 18

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 60802?s=21

It's not yet showing on CZ's website / booking system - I wonder if this will replace the 332 or the 77W.

Cheers,

C.


The 789 is suppose to be replacing the A332

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 6259537921



I wonder which one though, both flights are currently A332 while the NW usually sees a 77W on the later flight. I’m guessing 789 on the early flight?

zkncj wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ must be taking a hit at EZE - Australian bookings to Argentina have tumbled, with the drop one of the worst of any market.

We know that Australian traffic to EZE takes up 40% of NZ's EZE service, so that trend from Australia is a really big problem.

Image

... normally a fall in a country’s currency will lead to a surge in bookings as the destination becomes tangibly better value for international visitors. However, a severe decline which is triggered by a domestic economic and political crisis, can actually have the opposite effect and put off visitors, at least in the short term.

See: https://blueswandaily.com/argentinas-fi ... in-demand/.

Cheers,

C.


EZE must not be doing to bad, its just been increased to 6x weekly for this coming summer peak season https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status/1012430946530783232


Was showing 5x 789, 1x 772 before so that makes a lot more sense, doing ok, maybe with some Asian connections aswell it will give them enough traffic to increase or local NZ traffic, they are obviously fairly confident in the routes performance given the Argentina situation.

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

And?

It would help the forum (or at least, me) if you explained (in more than a one, two or three-word reply) just why it is that:

1. You changed your mind on NZ and ICN from just a few months ago, such that "I now give ICN an opportunity now"
2. You now assert that "It won't happen" - which, in light of no specificity in quoting me, I take to be about NZ at ICN.

Cheers,

C.


My "opinion" has absolutely no connection to what "will happen".

I give it an opportunity if NZ had an alliance and / or as the Korean Kiwi population matures and we get second and third generation Koreans living here.

You've looked at the Stats NZ website and comments from AKL airport and come to a conclusion that South Korea is a strong route for NZ and it's massively undeserved. You've also said cargo links are strong and listed heavy household electronic goods which are sent via sea.

This is a great example of how stats can send you astray. You're probably not working in the industry and/or don't understand it completely. Korean's are massively KE loyal, to the point where a number of carriers in NZ don't even attempt to compete with KE on the NZ-KE market. KE holds between 96-98% of the market and no matter what airlines do they can't shift that.

Opening a route does not entitle you to a particular sized slice of the pie. I could mention one airline who attempted to undercut KE on a competitive schedule. Pushed it relatively hard to Korean agents and the Korean community. Not even a nibble from them.


Those routes you mentioned earlier JFK/HNL/FRA daily and a 5 weekly FCO for KE with the 748 only need 6 frames max. There is certainly more changes to come, SFO I think for it last NW but they have increased frequency with 77W’s there.

Even if KE use a 77W NZ just aren’t going to jump in based on that, gives KE a good reason to increase and put pressure on NZ, NZ imo would no this and be cautious, KE have had the market to themselves for so long they won’t be a push over. OZ on the other hand who knows? I think seasonal flying has its place but that doesn’t mean NZ will take it up. Who knows maybe KE will add CHC again? Although recent comments by CHC airport suggests they are talking with existing carriers about capacity increases.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:56 pm

Please continue discussion in July edition of New Zealand Aviation Thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1397907
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