Page 1 of 14

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 9:44 am
by planemanofnz
FJ is set to add CHC - SUV, on a one-off charter basis - perhaps a prelude to more permanent flights?

See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2018/.

Cheers,

C.

New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 9:45 am
by qf789
Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018, please continue to add your comments below

Link to the May edition

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1392925

All users are reminded and expected to respect other users opinions, while you may not agree with another user's opinion your reply must be respectful without engaging in personal attacks and be constructive. Those who continue to behave in the manner as seen in the May New Zealand Aviation thread which in some cases has been unacceptable are at risk of being issued a warning or having a ban issued on their user account. Let's keep the thread on topic

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 9:58 am
by Qantas16
planemanofnz wrote:
FJ is set to add CHC - SUV, on a one-off charter basis - perhaps a prelude to more permanent flights?

See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2018/.

Cheers,

C.


Or perhaps... a one-off charter flight? :roll: Not every charter flight (in fact... very rarely, if ever, are they) preludes to future regular service...

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 10:05 am
by Gasman
Qantas16 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Not every charter flight (in fact... very rarely, if ever, are they) preludes to future regular service...

You're right - and why is this?

I got excited at the AKL-LAS charters a few years back and.... still waiting. I can think of other examples too, that on the surface at least looked like viable routes.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 10:22 am
by Motorhussy
Could SYD-AKL-LAS be a thing? JQ of course.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 2:30 pm
by NZ321
I think on reflection re past comments in the previous month that raising a concern shouldn't be taken as a beat up necessarily nor a prompt for a defensive response which doesn't necessarily help and often ups the anti - indeed it is such questions and concerns that can stimulate constructive conversation. But in this forum our mission perhaps should be to be more solutions focused rather than on the negative beat. So for those of us regularly in the forum we can be aware of that and - when the moment arises- both call for evidence and signal politely to the critic to shift the tone of the conversation more towards, so what's the solution? I'm well aware that some of us do that regularly at the mo, but to me its in the open inquiry and a search for solutions and information that we find a more rewarding conversation.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 2:42 pm
by NZ321
So what do we have confirmed inbound for NZ? 9V-SVL now ZK-OKI. Flew on this bird a couple of times. There are rumors of a 77W. Is it confirmed? And do we know if ZK-OKI (now it's official) will be reconfigured or in SQ config? If reconfigured, where do the seats come from? After all, this is over and above the current 772 fleet count. Seems to me if NZ have gone to the trouble of re-registering a plane which will be part of their long haul fleet for a while (do we have an indication of time frame) that they might have it reconfigured. MH by all accounts are running with the Air Berlin seats in their A332 that will be operating for 6 years but then the config and specs are quite close at the mo and the seats are apparently being fitted with the MH in flight entertainment system which is pretty good.

Thoughts re NZ's plans? And does this latest fleet addition signal that NZ are expecting 789 problems into the foreseeable future? Or rather that they are in expansion mode. Or both?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 4:59 pm
by Kiwijason
Gasman, regarding your post last month that the region has "far less that 400k population in relation to the Hamilton Airport vs Whenuapai Airport micro debate.

Wikipedia has the Waikato regional Population at 460,100 and the Bay Of Plenty projected to be 277,000 in 2011.
Round the BOP up to 30 k for 7 years growth (very conservative) and that gives a catchment of about 750,000 which is more than "far less than 400k" right?
Don't let facts get in the way of logic. It works for Trump after all.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 6:05 pm
by aerorobnz
OKI will have kiwi crew and SQ seats. A winning combo!

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 7:52 pm
by zkncj
Could this 'Qantas Network Change' being talked about coming today be the end of JetConnect?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 8:27 pm
by Kiwijason
Does anyone know when Air New Zealand is due to or intends to make an announcement regarding the A350 or 777-8/9?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 8:36 pm
by Planesmart
Given original 787 issues, and ongoing engine problems across multiple brands and models, I assume the NZ Board will take a very conservative position on future orders, especially the most expensive. So no 778/779 orders for years.

No one in the funding industry jumping up and down, saying pick me, pick me for the 777X yet. Too early. Some very meaty margins being offered, so could well be Boeing Capital has to get the market moving.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 8:53 pm
by zkncj
Planesmart wrote:
Given original 787 issues, and ongoing engine problems across multiple brands and models, I assume the NZ Board will take a very conservative position on future orders, especially the most expensive. So no 778/779 orders for years.

No one in the funding industry jumping up and down, saying pick me, pick me for the 777X yet. Too early. Some very meaty margins being offered, so could well be Boeing Capital has to get the market moving.


The 777 replacement order is meant to be made this year for an approximate 2020/2021 delivery start, with the current 789 issues (even though not Boeing's fault, to the general public it is). I think any future Boeing order will be handled with allot of PR care or even a A350 order would help there current PR issues right now.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 9:37 pm
by Gasman
NZ321 wrote:
I think on reflection re past comments in the previous month that raising a concern shouldn't be taken as a beat up necessarily nor a prompt for a defensive response which doesn't necessarily help and often ups the anti - indeed it is such questions and concerns that can stimulate constructive conversation. But in this forum our mission perhaps should be to be more solutions focused rather than on the negative beat. So for those of us regularly in the forum we can be aware of that and - when the moment arises- both call for evidence and signal politely to the critic to shift the tone of the conversation more towards, so what's the solution? I'm well aware that some of us do that regularly at the mo, but to me its in the open inquiry and a search for solutions and information that we find a more rewarding conversation.

An excellent post. I've read it three times.

Of course our discussions and debates will go round and round to an extent; because we are invested in the outcomes but have no ability to influence them. We are like a constantly-sitting committee that has power to only pontificate while the decisions are made by someone else.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:28 am
by downdata
QF to codeshare with NZ on NZ and AU domestic routes according to AusBT.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-air-new ... artnership

I think VA is going under the next time oil reaches $100/bbl

Turns out VA needs NZ more than NZ needs VA. Afterall NZ has a monopoly in NZ.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:34 am
by sq256
^^

Could potentially see NZ moving from *A to OW, despite the NZ-USA JV with UA.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:46 am
by xiaotung
downdata wrote:
QF to codeshare with NZ on NZ and AU domestic routes according to AusBT.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-air-new ... artnership

I think VA is going under the next time oil reaches $100/bbl

Turns out VA needs NZ more than NZ needs VA. Afterall NZ has a monopoly in NZ.


VA may be in serious trouble if HNA decided to sell their stake. HNA is investigating to list Hong Kong Airlines. A lot of uncertainty with VA's Asian venture.


sq256 wrote:
^^

Could potentially see NZ moving from *A to OW, despite the NZ-USA JV with UA.


The codeshare agreement covers only each other's domestic network. They remain competitors on trans-Tasman and long haul routes. NZ/QF would be nearly impossible to gain any regulatory approval if they wanted to cooperate further.

Also Impossible with NZ existing JV's with UA, CA, SQ.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:58 am
by sq256
xiaotung wrote:
downdata wrote:
QF to codeshare with NZ on NZ and AU domestic routes according to AusBT.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-air-new ... artnership

I think VA is going under the next time oil reaches $100/bbl

Turns out VA needs NZ more than NZ needs VA. Afterall NZ has a monopoly in NZ.


VA may be in serious trouble if HNA decided to sell their stake. HNA is investigating to list Hong Kong Airlines. A lot of uncertainty with VA's Asian venture.


EY are also still pondering whether to sell their VA stake due to their own financial situation. It's a matter of whether HNA or EY sells up first.

SQ hasn't really shown any interest in increasing or selling their stake either.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:05 am
by Qantas16
[photoid][/photoid]
sq256 wrote:
^^

Could potentially see NZ moving from *A to OW, despite the NZ-USA JV with UA.


Omg it's one codeshare agreement! Relax!

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:01 am
by zkncj
Gasman wrote:
I have to wonder what really is in this for QF. Sure, they'll have the odd passenger who can now seamlessly travel from SYD-TUO; but I would have thought that will be more than offset by pax lost from JQ to NZ on the main trunk.


Probably more the New Zealand to secondary port in Australia market would be there gain, getting that feed that NZ used to give VA. If anything it will help weaken VA which will help both NZ/VA.

It does mention 'ground services' which could be another cost saving area for them both, e.g. QF probably could ditch there New Zealand ground operation, and NZ could do the same in Australia.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:02 am
by Gasman
I have to wonder what really is in this for QF. Sure, they'll have the odd passenger who can now seamlessly travel from SYD-TUO; but I would have thought that will be more than offset by pax lost from JQ to NZ on the main trunk.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:04 am
by sq256
Which also puts into question the future of the JQ-NZ operation. Would there be complications affecting JQ-NZ's operations (e.g QF dissolving JQ-NZ and returning the planes for their AU operations or potentially splitting off the JQ-NZ operations)?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:04 am
by NZ6
Kiwijason wrote:
Does anyone know when Air New Zealand is due to or intends to make an announcement regarding the A350 or 777-8/9?


Won't be too long :-)

sq256 wrote:
^^
Could potentially see NZ moving from *A to OW, despite the NZ-USA JV with UA.


Don't read too much into it. Australian domestic operations have been a key component for NZ for a long time, consider Ansett and then Virgin although this is just a code-share agreement.

I wonder how this will effect any planned growth of JQ regional if they had any.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:15 am
by a7ala
On other news today, Airbus bring the A350-900 to WLG for wet-runway testing next week.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/104 ... s-aircraft

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:18 am
by Qantas16
zkncj wrote:
Gasman wrote:
I have to wonder what really is in this for QF. Sure, they'll have the odd passenger who can now seamlessly travel from SYD-TUO; but I would have thought that will be more than offset by pax lost from JQ to NZ on the main trunk.


Probably more the New Zealand to secondary port in Australia market would be there gain, getting that feed that NZ used to give VA. If anything it will help weaken VA which will help both NZ/VA.

It does mention 'ground services' which could be another cost saving area for them both, e.g. QF probably could ditch there New Zealand ground operation, and NZ could do the same in Australia.


NZ have very limited ground staff in Australia anymore though, all the big cities are contracted out to Dnata (not sure who does OOL, CNS, MCY). It used to be QF for a long time too... changing back would likely only increase NZ's costs.

I know QF use Menzies in AKL, and I'd be shocked if they had their own staff at ZQN, WLG or CHC.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:14 am
by NZ6
Regarding my post yesterday in the May thread re new routes.

I was wondering if anyone had heard anything? What I'm told is it's either being seriously looked at or could be announced.

To answer the questions... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.

I'm reluctant to say more as it's pretty confidential where this came from.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:14 am
by A330NZ
Qantas16 wrote:

NZ have very limited ground staff in Australia anymore though, all the big cities are contracted out to Dnata (not sure who does OOL, CNS, MCY). It used to be QF for a long time too... changing back would likely only increase NZ's costs.

I know QF use Menzies in AKL, and I'd be shocked if they had their own staff at ZQN, WLG or CHC.



Unsure about ZQN, but QF ground services are contracted to PlaneBiz in CHC and WLG. And as for NZ at CNS - they use Aerocare. Maybe someone else on here can fill in the rest of the blanks?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:38 am
by planemanofnz
To be fair to NZ, I think that the QF code-share deal is a good strategy, and good news for consumers - bigger variety of cities.

I highly doubt that JQ will pull the plug on regional New Zealand - it could risk the NZ - QF deal continuing to be approved, no?

What I do wonder is - does this spell the end of any hopes of NZ now flying to the likes of CBR, HBA, NTL, TSV and elsewhere?

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:02 am
by planemanofnz
NZ6 wrote:
... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.

Very interesting - I haven't heard anything, but IMO, the options are limited, like:

- CA on AKL - SCL
- CZ on AKL - EZE or GRU
- CX on AKL - SCL or GRU
- JQ on AKL - LAX or SFO or LAS or SCL
- LA on AKL - SIN or HKG or NRT
- QF on AKL - DFW or JFK or GRU
- SQ on AKL - GRU
- VA on AKL - LAX

Some comments:

1. IMO, it's about time that LA de-tagged AKL and SYD, so this could involve LA's AKL flight extending to Asia to sustain it, or maybe CX taking over AKL - SCL?

2. The USDOT's determination on the AA - QF JV should be fast-approaching, which may lead to QF operating AKL - LAX in the winter, or launching AKL - DFW.

3. VA will be furious about being dumped by NZ (the QF alliance will only add to this). It could re-jig its DL JV to open up some 77W capacity to launch AKL - LAX.

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:02 am
by ZK-NBT
zkncj wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
Given original 787 issues, and ongoing engine problems across multiple brands and models, I assume the NZ Board will take a very conservative position on future orders, especially the most expensive. So no 778/779 orders for years.

No one in the funding industry jumping up and down, saying pick me, pick me for the 777X yet. Too early. Some very meaty margins being offered, so could well be Boeing Capital has to get the market moving.


The 777 replacement order is meant to be made this year for an approximate 2020/2021 delivery start, with the current 789 issues (even though not Boeing's fault, to the general public it is). I think any future Boeing order will be handled with allot of PR care or even a A350 order would help there current PR issues right now.


Isn’t the A350 RR only? Not that it’s had the same issues as the 787. I think you are reading to much into the current situation re a possible 777X order.

NZ6 wrote:
Regarding my post yesterday in the May thread re new routes.

I was wondering if anyone had heard anything? What I'm told is it's either being seriously looked at or could be announced.

To answer the questions... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.

I'm reluctant to say more as it's pretty confidential where this came from.


No idea are you talking a fifth freedom service? CZ to EZE? SQ to GRU?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:09 am
by planemanofnz
ZK-NBT wrote:
CZ to EZE? SQ to GRU?

Yes, those are possibilities, though two points:

- CZ said in 2017 that it only "plans to establish passenger routes to Brazil and Argentina within the next five years"

See: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/ ... expand-its.

- SQ said as recently as 2016 that its suspension of GRU was "a result of the sustained weak performance of the route"

See: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... ervices-to.

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:13 am
by planemanofnz
One other fifth-freedom possibility, IMO, is AKL - CGK on SQ, as an extension of the NZ - SQ JV.

SQ recently attempted to launch fifth-freedom flights on SYD - CGK, but then pulled out of that.

IMO:

- NZ might look at pulling out of DPS because of EK, and a CGK flight may be a new strategy?
- The Indonesians would be more likely to give SQ rights to AKL than to SYD (as no GA to AKL)

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:36 am
by Qantas16
A330NZ wrote:
Unsure about ZQN, but QF ground services are contracted to PlaneBiz in CHC and WLG. And as for NZ at CNS - they use Aerocare. Maybe someone else on here can fill in the rest of the blanks?


PlaneBiz being majority owned by Menzies anyway, correct? (it's hard to find much info about them)

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:40 am
by axio
NZ6 wrote:
... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.


Since it's Friday, I'm going with some left-field speculation:
- DL to SEA or ATL
- OZ to ICN
- VN to SGN
- AI to BOM

:)

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:50 am
by A330NZ
Qantas16 wrote:
A330NZ wrote:
Unsure about ZQN, but QF ground services are contracted to PlaneBiz in CHC and WLG. And as for NZ at CNS - they use Aerocare. Maybe someone else on here can fill in the rest of the blanks?


PlaneBiz being majority owned by Menzies anyway, correct? (it's hard to find much info about them)


Yes, to the best of my knowledge at least

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:05 am
by planemanofnz
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that, per NZ6's post, the new route is from an "established" carrier (i.e. who already flies to AKL).

Nevertheless:

axio wrote:
VN to SGN

There has already been an unofficial rumour circulating on WA media (posted in the thread last month) that VN will fly SGN - PHE - AKL from March 2019.

axio wrote:
AI to BOM

A deeper AI - NZ partnership might be on the cards, as, interestingly, NZ is cutting its ties with 9W from July 2018 (albeit it was only, AFAIK, a FFP deal).

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:20 am
by ZaphodHarkonnen
a7ala wrote:
On other news today, Airbus bring the A350-900 to WLG for wet-runway testing next week.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/104 ... s-aircraft


Oooooooo. Very neat. Here's hoping they discover they can make it to SIN. Very unlikely, but I can hope. :p

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:36 am
by Gasman
NZ6 wrote:
Regarding my post yesterday in the May thread re new routes.

I was wondering if anyone had heard anything? What I'm told is it's either being seriously looked at or could be announced.

To answer the questions... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.

I'm reluctant to say more as it's pretty confidential where this came from.

Ooooh...... could EK DXB-AKL-LAX be a possibility?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:40 am
by planemanofnz
Gasman wrote:
Ooooh...... could EK DXB-AKL-LAX be a possibility?

Now that would be interesting. However, with EK only just launching their second daily DXB - AKL flight, and the rise in the price of oil disproportionately affecting the ULH nature of the DXB - AKL non-stop flight, I'm not sure that they'd invest more in our market, for now.

What would be in it for EK? They already serve AKL and LAX, so they'd be going after i) local O&D traffic (which is very seasonal - not the most conducive to a 388), and ii) RTW traffic (which didn't really work for NZ, albeit a few years back now). Am I missing something?

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:43 am
by Sylus
A330NZ wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
A330NZ wrote:
Unsure about ZQN, but QF ground services are contracted to PlaneBiz in CHC and WLG. And as for NZ at CNS - they use Aerocare. Maybe someone else on here can fill in the rest of the blanks?


PlaneBiz being majority owned by Menzies anyway, correct? (it's hard to find much info about them)


Yes, to the best of my knowledge at least


Yes correct planebiz are owned by Menzies. ZQN is also operated by Planebiz, suprising as they are only responsible for a single QF Syd flight per day and with operating the mania lounge.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:00 am
by Gasman
planemanofnz wrote:
What would be in it for EK? They already serve AKL and LAX, so they'd be going after i) local O&D traffic (which is very seasonal - not the most conducive to a 388), and ii) RTW traffic (which didn't really work for NZ, albeit a few years back now). Am I missing something?

Cheers,

C.

I personally have zero doubt they could fill a daily A388 on an AKL-LAX leg. Sure, much of the load would be cannibalized from the existing market; but no other carrier on the route offers F class, or the twindeck VLA experience, or ICE IFE and EK have a very generous rewards scheme.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:12 pm
by planemanofnz
Gasman wrote:
I personally have zero doubt they could fill a daily A388 on an AKL-LAX leg.

Some comments:

1. Would there be enough O&D for it to work? I guess they could tap JQ for domestic New Zealand connections, but co-operation with QF on Australian connections might not work, if the AA - QF JV is approved. I can't see where they would get connections from LAX.

2. While there are advantages to EK's product, like IFE and an F Class (with AKL - LAX being probably one of the few routes ex-AKL that there may be demand for F on), EK has weaknesses too, like an FFP that is not conducive to targeting higher-yielding AKL based passengers.

3. You can expect NZ to launch a very competitive response (potentially by both frequency increases and price cuts), if EK does this - AKL - LAX is one of NZ's most important routes, and is a part-monopoly - they wouldn't give that up to a foreign carrier (especially EK) that easily.

My own personal opinion is that EK probably have bigger fish to fry than AKL - LAX, but I'd love for it to happen!

Cheers,

C.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:02 pm
by tealnz
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
a7ala wrote:
On other news today, Airbus bring the A350-900 to WLG for wet-runway testing next week.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/104 ... s-aircraft


Oooooooo. Very neat. Here's hoping they discover they can make it to SIN. Very unlikely, but I can hope. :p

Fascinating. That's a big unanswered question. We had a thread last year https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1351457 that tried to get some answers. The analysis in the Astral report (the basis for the runway extension proposal) http://www.connectwellington.co.nz/stat ... rt%201.pdf claimed that the 359 had a big issue with landing distance at Wellington on the existing runway.
The discussion quickly veered off course :roll: But there was a post from Zeke, drawing on the Airbus performance database, arguing that the 359 could land at MLW (the Astral report suggested landing distance was the big issue for the 359) and could carry full pax as far as Beijing. No-one challenged him on it but no-one seemed to have any answers on Astra's claim about landing performance problems for the 359.
The other curiosity in all of this is that SQ now has heaps of experience operating a 77E out of Wellington. Outbound it has obviously been operating only at weights needed for the short hop to Canberra. But we have never seen a good answer on why the 77E can comfortably land at Wellington while a 359 (according to the Astra report) cannot.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:55 pm
by ZaphodHarkonnen
tealnz wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
a7ala wrote:
On other news today, Airbus bring the A350-900 to WLG for wet-runway testing next week.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/104 ... s-aircraft


Oooooooo. Very neat. Here's hoping they discover they can make it to SIN. Very unlikely, but I can hope. :p

Fascinating. That's a big unanswered question. We had a thread last year https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1351457 that tried to get some answers. The analysis in the Astral report (the basis for the runway extension proposal) http://www.connectwellington.co.nz/stat ... rt%201.pdf claimed that the 359 had a big issue with landing distance at Wellington on the existing runway.
The discussion quickly veered off course :roll: But there was a post from Zeke, drawing on the Airbus performance database, arguing that the 359 could land at MLW (the Astral report suggested landing distance was the big issue for the 359) and could carry full pax as far as Beijing. No-one challenged him on it but no-one seemed to have any answers on Astra's claim about landing performance problems for the 359.
The other curiosity in all of this is that SQ now has heaps of experience operating a 77E out of Wellington. Outbound it has obviously been operating only at weights needed for the short hop to Canberra. But we have never seen a good answer on why the 77E can comfortably land at Wellington while a 359 (according to the Astra report) cannot.


From memory that report used conservative values when calculating runway needed. Actual testing would provide the final hard numbers. Arguably it must be close if Airbus is willing to send it halfway round the world to a dinky little airport like WLG. I'll hold out hope but won't start mixing the kool-aid until the final numbers get actually reported.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:51 pm
by NZ321
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.

Very interesting - I haven't heard anything, but IMO, the options are limited, like:

- CA on AKL - SCL
- CZ on AKL - EZE or GRU
- CX on AKL - SCL or GRU
- JQ on AKL - LAX or SFO or LAS or SCL
- LA on AKL - SIN or HKG or NRT
- QF on AKL - DFW or JFK or GRU
- SQ on AKL - GRU
- VA on AKL - LAX

Some comments:

1. IMO, it's about time that LA de-tagged AKL and SYD, so this could involve LA's AKL flight extending to Asia to sustain it, or maybe CX taking over AKL - SCL?

2. The USDOT's determination on the AA - QF JV should be fast-approaching, which may lead to QF operating AKL - LAX in the winter, or launching AKL - DFW.

3. VA will be furious about being dumped by NZ (the QF alliance will only add to this). It could re-jig its DL JV to open up some 77W capacity to launch AKL - LAX.

Cheers,

C.


VA opening AKL-LAX in the current climate seems mighty unlikely to me. All the more so because NZ just gave them the cold shoulder. The code-share with QF just ups the anti with NZ-VS and with fuel heading ever upwards and EY in a bender and thinking to exit, times are not rosy for VA. Perhaps they need to have a new vision and strategy given the current one is not really working for them? That comes down to governance and leadership surely. And why does VA need to be an international operator anyway? I've always thought, VA has plenty of international feed outside of Oneworld and could focus on being a number 1 domestic choice in Australia. Much lower risk.

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:53 pm
by Deepinsider
Why is it that one of the two major plane makers chooses WLG (my home town)
to do this testing? pretty well as far as it's possible to be from their main base.

In France or Germany, where they are based, surely there are suitably small and
inadequate (for long haul) airports similar to WLG.

Could this be funded somehow by the Wellington authorities? They are trying hard
to have a real (long haul) international place.

The performance capabilities of every flight, every day, at every airport are well controlled
by the 'Airplane Flight Manual' rules, which are mostly automated these days, to take account
of all possible variables at each ICAO approved airport. Airbus would only have to dial in NZWN
parameters to get all the answers.

Wellington City authorities are well known to want long haul flights.
Airbus are well known to want NZ to buy A350's

Fun for us enthusiasts, but surely it's a wasteful publicity stunt.
We know Mr Luxon would not be the slightest interested.
His expert advisors already know the full A350 capabilities.
And if they don't...Oh dear, Airbus have already missed out!

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:54 pm
by NZ321
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
tealnz wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:

Oooooooo. Very neat. Here's hoping they discover they can make it to SIN. Very unlikely, but I can hope. :p

Fascinating. That's a big unanswered question. We had a thread last year https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1351457 that tried to get some answers. The analysis in the Astral report (the basis for the runway extension proposal) http://www.connectwellington.co.nz/stat ... rt%201.pdf claimed that the 359 had a big issue with landing distance at Wellington on the existing runway.
The discussion quickly veered off course :roll: But there was a post from Zeke, drawing on the Airbus performance database, arguing that the 359 could land at MLW (the Astral report suggested landing distance was the big issue for the 359) and could carry full pax as far as Beijing. No-one challenged him on it but no-one seemed to have any answers on Astra's claim about landing performance problems for the 359.
The other curiosity in all of this is that SQ now has heaps of experience operating a 77E out of Wellington. Outbound it has obviously been operating only at weights needed for the short hop to Canberra. But we have never seen a good answer on why the 77E can comfortably land at Wellington while a 359 (according to the Astra report) cannot.


From memory that report used conservative values when calculating runway needed. Actual testing would provide the final hard numbers. Arguably it must be close if Airbus is willing to send it halfway round the world to a dinky little airport like WLG. I'll hold out hope but won't start mixing the kool-aid until the final numbers get actually reported.


Well the reason Airbus is sending the A359 to WLG will surely not be just because it's close but because they are in with a chance on the NZ replacement order for the 777 (just to state the obvious). But should be interesting viewing. What if the weather changes and it ain't raining?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:57 pm
by NZ321
BTW SQ just upped SIN-CGK to 9 wide-bodies per day. Makes you wonder eh? CGK-AKL. Surely possible. That town is heaving. Indonesia is one of the most populated countries in Asia-Pacific yet we can't sustain a nonstop between AKL and CGK. I keep coming back to the arrangement with NZ and SQ and think it might exclude NZ from entering CGK because the traffic needs to transit Changi. Otherwise, surely gotta be on the radar. Thoughts?

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:18 pm
by PA515
Grant Bradley interview with Chris Luxon in todays NZ Herald.

The impact of the engine problems will continue through the winter, although Air New Zealand is negotiating for two long haul dry lease aircraft its crew can fly to bolster its fleet.

That's the ex SQ 77E ZK-OKI and a 77W.

New A321 aircraft are due from the end of the year, improving economics on short range international flights; three new Dreamliners (with new model engines) are coming; and the airline is launching new routes to Taipei and Chicago at the end of the year.

So, the 789 due in FY2020 (CY2019) is still on, but no announcement from ALC. Could be coming from a different leasing company.

Next week Luxon is in the spotlight at the IATA meeting, a member of what is being billed as a highlight, the chief executive insight panel.

He always gives interviews at the IATA meetings, so maybe some more info next week.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=12062689

PA515

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:32 pm
by DavidByrne
axio wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
... all I can really say is it's ex AKL with a foreign carrier to a long haul destination.


Since it's Friday, I'm going with some left-field speculation:
- DL to SEA or ATL
- OZ to ICN
- VN to SGN
- AI to BOM

:)

IMO one of these is more likely than the two-sector fifth freedom services suggested earlier. My thinking is VN to SGN or AI to BOM.