PlanesNTrains
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:32 pm

YYZYYT wrote:
BartSimpson wrote:
caribb wrote:

I don’t believe it was. The mystery order was suppose to be from a non existing customer.


What is a"non-existing customer"?


He was referring to the way BBD used to do it - announcing orders to customers who weren't real at all :duck:

But seriously, I usually keep an eye on orders but don't follow too closely. This year, I'l be watching much more closely, particularly to see if any of the CS/Emb fights are resolved


If JetBlue goes E2, that buys Embraer some time since it will likely be a decent sized order from a strong operator. If JetBlue goes CSeries, then unless Embraer announces a surprise big order at the airshow, they've got their work cut out for them. I say that not as a criticism of their product but rather simply where the market seems to be right now. The CSeries gets some street cred with Airbus and, by association, some time to develop more orders. Embraer doesn't have that luxury. The EIS of the E190-E2 at Wideroe has gone great, which will help, but that needs to translate into orders.
-Dave


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ER757
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:03 pm

2175301 wrote:
This is my fantasy speculation: Air France will order 5-10 A380, for the prestige/local Mfr factor. KLM will order 5-10 777-9 for the economics.

Someone without a huge A219/320/321 fleet will orders sign a Memo of Understanding for hundreds of A320/321 that represents a many fold expansion of their fleet; and thus Airbus will "win" the airshow.

There will be at least modest for the A350, and perhaps a few for the A330 from existing operators.

I do not expect very large Boeing orders at the airshow.

Have a great day,

AF ordering more A380's - that really is a fantasy!
I agree with lots of others who feel this is going to be a fairly quiet show for orders.
I don't see any way Boeing announces the 797, they aren't ready.
I do, however think there could be a surprise A380 order at some point in the show (BA?). I think it's make or break time for the 330NEO so a big order confirmation would be a great boost.
Expecting a handful of 787 orders and the usual 737/A320 orders that I just can't get excited about.
 
caribb
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:23 pm

EChid wrote:
BartSimpson wrote:
caribb wrote:

I don’t believe it was. The mystery order was suppose to be from a non existing customer.


What is a"non-existing customer"?


I believe he was referring to a new customer for the plane, rather than a pre-existing one.


Exactly. A brand new customer
 
RandWkop
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:31 pm

Think we might see a large Boeing order from a Japanese airline. Just based on Trump's comments at the last meeting with Abe and also Japan sided with the US on one or two issues at the G7.
NZ orders some A350s.
 
max1313
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:01 am

Expect B6 to announce an order around 60 CS100 with options to convert to CS300
converting some of the A321 neo to A321NEO LR version
Converting A320 neo deliveries to A321 neo........
 
imthedreamliner
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:01 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
Firming EK’s 787 order?

Its been almost a year since they intented to order 787-10. Why did it so long to firm it ? They firmed the A380s almost immediately. What is taking them so long ? An additional evaluation of their decision ? Does anyone have any info ?

Farnborough could be the right place to firm it.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:16 am

imthedreamliner wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Firming EK’s 787 order?

Its been almost a year since they intented to order 787-10. Why did it so long to firm it ? They firmed the A380s almost immediately. What is taking them so long ? An additional evaluation of their decision ? Does anyone have any info ?

Farnborough could be the right place to firm it.
The A380 program was at risk of being terminated without their order. For the 787 order there is no real hurry, especially considering that it will not be delivered until the mid 2020s.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:21 am

Andy33 wrote:
There are only 36 747s left, and a mix of A35Ks and 787-10s is already on order for delivery 2019-2022 to replace all but 12.
So the "massive order" won't be more than 12 at best, and as the last BA 744 leaves in February 2024, effectively all of them will have to be delivered in 2023. Nobody has yet been able to confirm that Boeing even has uncommitted production slots for 12 779s during 2022/3. Can you?


A couple points here:

1) I doubt that 78Xs and 35Ks will be one-for-one replacements. As always with big airlines we need to be thinking in terms of total capacity rather than number of frames. Those aircraft will replace most of the 744 capacity, but there would be room for an order of 15-16 779 before any potential growth is taken into account. (Or, as I suggested above, 10 A380 could fill the same role.)

2) I have no doubt that both EY and QR would be quite happy to defer as much of their 77X orders as Boeing would need to provide slots to BA. A380 slots wouldn't be an issue either, as EK will be happy to slow down deliveries if BA wants slots.
 
Xetron
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:52 am

I'm guessing Indigo would order the A330neos but I wish they order the A350.

Vistara - Possibly A320neo and 787

A few A380 orders maybe from QR / BA

Lots of narrow body aircrafts, most likely the A320neos from other carriers.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:55 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
tzadik wrote:
Perhaps an order for NK. I know they're planning on some serious growth.


Based on some of the chatter over the past year, they'd seem like an ideal CSeries+A32Xneo candidate, particularly if they need additional neo's over their current order. It just might be a week too early with the airshow ending before the close of the deal between BBD and Airbus.


You must be confused as Farnborough starts on July 16th while the CSALP deal closes July 1st, 2 weeks before that.


I think that IAG will show something both in terms of widebodies and narrowbodies. If LHR is getting an additional runway, BA would have to make sure that they can maintain a strong position.
I see them increasing frequencies and reducing aircraft size. The CS300 would be ideal for that, as would the B787/A339.
The hopes for an A380 order died with that 3rd runway in my opinion.
I don't see too many orders happening either.

The B797... Dont see it happening yet.

The Cseries needs to give us at least a couple hundred in LOI's.
The E2 will also have to show that it's worth something but Embraer's reputation is not so good. So they'll have to be super aggressive. I hope to see some of that.

The MRJ program should see a small boost especially the MR70.
Last edited by Waterbomber on Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Andy33
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:56 am

seabosdca wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
There are only 36 747s left, and a mix of A35Ks and 787-10s is already on order for delivery 2019-2022 to replace all but 12.
So the "massive order" won't be more than 12 at best, and as the last BA 744 leaves in February 2024, effectively all of them will have to be delivered in 2023. Nobody has yet been able to confirm that Boeing even has uncommitted production slots for 12 779s during 2022/3. Can you?


A couple points here:

1) I doubt that 78Xs and 35Ks will be one-for-one replacements. As always with big airlines we need to be thinking in terms of total capacity rather than number of frames. Those aircraft will replace most of the 744 capacity, but there would be room for an order of 15-16 779 before any potential growth is taken into account. (Or, as I suggested above, 10 A380 could fill the same role.)

2) I have no doubt that both EY and QR would be quite happy to defer as much of their 77X orders as Boeing would need to provide slots to BA. A380 slots wouldn't be an issue either, as EK will be happy to slow down deliveries if BA wants slots.


Sorry, you've obviously missed IAG's public announcements about their 744 replacement plans. They've actually published the planned number of 744s which will remain in service year by year, as recently as November, and the planes that will replace them in the period up to the end of 2022. No 779s in that replacement tranche at all. The A35Ks are specifically stated as one-for-one replacements for 744s, and have been since the day they were first ordered.
It is only the final 12 744s, due to leave between January 2023 and February 2024 (yes, they're that specific) that don't have clearly identified replacements, and these as other posters in the thread have said, are likely to be those used on the shortest routes, a trend which has been evident for several years, as the longer routes are switched to more fuel-efficient planes. East Coast USA is very well within 787-10 and A35K range, why add complexity?

BA built up the world's largest fleet of 744s (57 at maximum) because at the time they were ordered nothing else could meet the range requirements, not because they needed the capacity, indeed the capacity was often an embarrassment. Very shortly afterwards the 772E appeared. The tail end of the 744 orders were switched to 772Es (otherwise there would have been even more of the things). Current management seems to believe that the business will be more profitable if they can replace 744s with smaller planes, rather than going for like-for -like capacity. Of course there are the A380s, but in some cases one A380 replaced two 744s!

QR might well be co-operative in re-allocating slots - they're a major shareholder in IAG, of course. But how many slots do they have for delivery in 2023? As for EY, well anything is possible, but again, how many slots do they have for 2023?. You have pushed the requirement up to 16, do both airlines combined have 16 slots all for delivery in 2023?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:58 am

Waterbomber wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
tzadik wrote:
Perhaps an order for NK. I know they're planning on some serious growth.


Based on some of the chatter over the past year, they'd seem like an ideal CSeries+A32Xneo candidate, particularly if they need additional neo's over their current order. It just might be a week too early with the airshow ending before the close of the deal between BBD and Airbus.


You must be confused as Farnborough starts on July 16th while the CSALP deal closes July 1st, 2 weeks before that.


I think that IAG will show something both in terms of widebodies and narrowbodies. If LHR is getting an additional runway, BA would have to make sure that they can maintain a strong position.
I see them increasing frequencies and reducing aircraft size. The CS300 would be ideal for that, as would the B787/A339.
The hopes for an A380 order died with that 3rd runway in my opinion.
I don't see too many orders happening either.

The B797... Dont see it happening yet.

The Cseries needs to give us at least a couple hundred in LOI's.
The E2 will also have to show that it's worth something but Embraer's reputation is not so good. So they'll have to be super aggressive. I hope to see some of that.

The MRJ program should see a small boost especially the MR70.


Yep, I misread it as June 16-22. My bad. So there could be some CSeries/A32X activity. I’m just st bummed we’re still a month out.
-Dave


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travelhound
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:00 am

QANTAS-Launch customer for the 797.
 
Planeyguy
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:29 am

Are there any potential 737 max orders?
 
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MillwallSean
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:12 am

Everyone sees fanciful wide-body orders. They are much sexier. But how often does that translate into commitments?
So Ill disagree, I see the usual A320/B737 orders.

My predictions:
Largest orders will come from leasing companies and not airlines.
LH will make some orders.
Airbus will provide lowcost A320 orders from three continents
Airbus has a cute order from Africa
Airbus has an order from the former CIS.
Boeing is selling the 787 dirtcheap at the moment which will help them secure 45 orders (firm, Loi, commitments, whatever, and A.net will argue over what they really are despite the fact that eventually they will all be in the orderbook).
A350 will gain two dozen orders (Airbus needs to up production fast but face constraints from suppliers)
A380/747-8 for passengers will see no new orders.

ATR has a few orders. Mostly from hardly known brands.
Azerbaijan places an order. The Azeris will show in London in larger numbers than before.

What I want to see - Both C series/ Embraer EJet E2 with 250 orders each. Announce that the boring days of the duopoly is over. That the trend of larger and larger narrowbodies have come to an end.
A wake up of the magnitude that the Paris airshow once was. Those whom remember when Airbus completely blew everyone out of the water (After they had 380 issues and the company felt a bit gloomy). At that time they saved up orders and just kept on piling on the press conferences. It was a never ending show and well even the most seasoned analyst was flabbergasted. On A.net Sabenapilot had told us to be prepared and watch Airbus. he even suggested that a Boeing fanboy would be disappointed. Few paid attention, since the A380 were troubled there was a belief that Airbus was in trouble, and the Boeing fanboys were out in form until the show started. It was madness. well never see a show like it again. There might be orders that are larger, ordervalue thats much higher, but well never see a show like that again when one manufacturer has decided to tell the world that its back and its in great shape (Leahy at his best).

With that said, Farnborough tend to be less of an Airbus show than Le Bourget and I believe Boeing who have priced its products aggressively lately will have a pretty good show, better than Airbus.
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StTim
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:20 am

Waterbomber wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
tzadik wrote:
Perhaps an order for NK. I know they're planning on some serious growth.


Based on some of the chatter over the past year, they'd seem like an ideal CSeries+A32Xneo candidate, particularly if they need additional neo's over their current order. It just might be a week too early with the airshow ending before the close of the deal between BBD and Airbus.


You must be confused as Farnborough starts on July 16th while the CSALP deal closes July 1st, 2 weeks before that.


I think that IAG will show something both in terms of widebodies and narrowbodies. If LHR is getting an additional runway, BA would have to make sure that they can maintain a strong position.
I see them increasing frequencies and reducing aircraft size. The CS300 would be ideal for that, as would the B787/A339.
The hopes for an A380 order died with that 3rd runway in my opinion.
I don't see too many orders happening either.

The B797... Dont see it happening yet.

The Cseries needs to give us at least a couple hundred in LOI's.
The E2 will also have to show that it's worth something but Embraer's reputation is not so good. So they'll have to be super aggressive. I hope to see some of that.

The MRJ program should see a small boost especially the MR70.

BA runs an all container baggage system at LHR. I do not think the CS family can support this.

A key reason they switched to the 320 family and booted the remaining 737’s to LGW to see out their remaining life.
 
tris06
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:41 am

NZ321 wrote:
Be nice to see an order for the A35K. Not picking CI as their 77W still very young in the tooth. Hard to predict..


Well the story behind this is:

CI has 6 A350 options expiring mid this year and it ordered early so the price would have been good.
Also the 10 B777s are all leased planes not actually owned by CI (They sold some frames to leasors when the plane was delivered.)
So those planes will come off leases in 4-6 years. The A350 has a decent backlog so it would not be early to order.

Then if you look at route performances the A350 is just around the right capacity for most routes where the B777 seems to be too much capacity except LAX which has larger demand to TPE.

10 frames would sound about right but that would allow 0 exspansion for the next decade for long hual so up to 16 additional frames is possible. CI is also a possible A339 operator in the future for short/medium ranged flights in Asia.
 
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:37 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
Are there any potential 737 max orders?


Okay QANTAS - Lauch customer for the 797 and two dozen 737MAX!
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:19 pm

StTim wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Based on some of the chatter over the past year, they'd seem like an ideal CSeries+A32Xneo candidate, particularly if they need additional neo's over their current order. It just might be a week too early with the airshow ending before the close of the deal between BBD and Airbus.


You must be confused as Farnborough starts on July 16th while the CSALP deal closes July 1st, 2 weeks before that.


I think that IAG will show something both in terms of widebodies and narrowbodies. If LHR is getting an additional runway, BA would have to make sure that they can maintain a strong position.
I see them increasing frequencies and reducing aircraft size. The CS300 would be ideal for that, as would the B787/A339.
The hopes for an A380 order died with that 3rd runway in my opinion.
I don't see too many orders happening either.

The B797... Dont see it happening yet.

The Cseries needs to give us at least a couple hundred in LOI's.
The E2 will also have to show that it's worth something but Embraer's reputation is not so good. So they'll have to be super aggressive. I hope to see some of that.

The MRJ program should see a small boost especially the MR70.

BA runs an all container baggage system at LHR. I do not think the CS family can support this.

A key reason they switched to the 320 family and booted the remaining 737’s to LGW to see out their remaining life.


BA loves their containers, that's a reality.
This being said, it's only of interest 50% of the time and containers come with their own costs.
MAD, BCN. LGW and LCY are great places to start for the Cseries, but in a second phase, ie 10 years from now LHR could be of interest too. By then, perhaps Airbus will be able to offer a container option for the Cseries and even a CS500.
 
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I think it is going to be quite lean with orders. The world economy is going to slow down in 2019/2020 and there are too many orders already. If I had the chance I would wait a bit 8-)


I think the economy is doing pretty well, but I think orders will be lean as aircraft have been over-sold.

N757ST wrote:
Jetblue might finally announce their fleet decision.

I hope, but I do not hold my breath. We have E2/C-series as a possible.

ikolkyo wrote:
A lot of eyes should be on the E2, it needs orders badly.

Needing orders badly doesn't generate them. That said, EIS has been spectacularly good. And progress has been made.

NZ321 wrote:
So does the C-series

I hope for orders for both the E2 and C-series. This is a critical year.

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Dutchy
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I think it is going to be quite lean with orders. The world economy is going to slow down in 2019/2020 and there are too many orders already. If I had the chance I would wait a bit 8-)


I think the economy is doing pretty well, but I think orders will be lean as aircraft have been over-sold.


Airlines don't look at the current economy, but at what their business is doing when these aircraft are going to be delivered. The next economic crisis will be here in two years time and might be more severe then what we had in 2008.
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:

[

ikolkyo wrote:
A lot of eyes should be on the E2, it needs orders badly.

Needing orders badly doesn't generate them. That said, EIS has been spectacularly good. And progress has been made.
Lightsaber


I’m aware of that, just pointing out the obvious...
 
Arion640
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:24 pm

StTim wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Based on some of the chatter over the past year, they'd seem like an ideal CSeries+A32Xneo candidate, particularly if they need additional neo's over their current order. It just might be a week too early with the airshow ending before the close of the deal between BBD and Airbus.


You must be confused as Farnborough starts on July 16th while the CSALP deal closes July 1st, 2 weeks before that.


I think that IAG will show something both in terms of widebodies and narrowbodies. If LHR is getting an additional runway, BA would have to make sure that they can maintain a strong position.
I see them increasing frequencies and reducing aircraft size. The CS300 would be ideal for that, as would the B787/A339.
The hopes for an A380 order died with that 3rd runway in my opinion.
I don't see too many orders happening either.

The B797... Dont see it happening yet.

The Cseries needs to give us at least a couple hundred in LOI's.
The E2 will also have to show that it's worth something but Embraer's reputation is not so good. So they'll have to be super aggressive. I hope to see some of that.

The MRJ program should see a small boost especially the MR70.

BA runs an all container baggage system at LHR. I do not think the CS family can support this.

A key reason they switched to the 320 family and booted the remaining 737’s to LGW to see out their remaining life.


Isn't it just T5 that has the containerised baggage system?

It's part of the reason the 757's disappeared quite quickly, obviously they were too big for LGW so they had to go.
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NZ321
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:36 pm

Okay so a CI order for A359 or A35K seems a possibility. Anything further? What about KE? What about CZ (they have 10, 4 of which are leased; meanwhile 6 of PR's 77Ws are leased). This is not surely an indication of an order? But given stated goals AR is a possibility for an A350 order; perhaps 4 or 5? Current fleet will be stretched. Thoughts?
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musman9853
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:46 pm

seabosdca wrote:
StrandedAtMKG wrote:
This is the year the 797 becomes a reality. No way Boeing waits another year for Paris next year (as satisfying as it would be to see it announced on Airbus's turf.) Look for several launch customer orders and a firm configuration announcement.


No 797 launch until there is a firm engine plan, and I very much doubt there will be one by Farnborough. I think 2019 is right.

Edit: Oh, and the other thing: if there is not a BA A380 order by Farnborough, it's never going to happen. I wouldn't be shocked by an order for 5 to 10, though, despite the latest rumors.



What's the load factor like on BAs 380s? Are they filling enough seats to make more what worthwhile?
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lightsaber
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:07 pm

Dutchy wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
I think it is going to be quite lean with orders. The world economy is going to slow down in 2019/2020 and there are too many orders already. If I had the chance I would wait a bit 8-)


I think the economy is doing pretty well, but I think orders will be lean as aircraft have been over-sold.


Airlines don't look at the current economy, but at what their business is doing when these aircraft are going to be delivered. The next economic crisis will be here in two years time and might be more severe then what we had in 2008.

I'm not seeing the forward looking indicators we had in 2008 and in the years leading up. In the USA, quite the opposite. What statistics do you see?
In particular, before 2008 it was obvious money was being pumped into the economy that was going to create an issue.
We do have a housing bubble. But this time price to rent is more in line with values. So this will be a gentler deflation.
So why do you predict a global slowdown? If it is a regional slowdown, so be it.
I was a bubble blogger back in 2005 on. I see no reason to be one now. So I think it is only the only-ordering that will slow sales.
China will slow, India might or might not take up the slack (I see RASK there dropping too quickly to sustain current growth even if airports could keep up...).

http://www.shadowstats.com

So I predict not as strong sales at Farnborough, but not dead.

With Boeing being so aggressive with the 787, it will be tough to sell A330NEOs. Indigo is going to be a big deal.
For the E2/C-series, orders are a must (in particular for the E2, the c-series had a nice Air Baltic top off which brings orders on paper over 400, giving some confidence as that is an important economy of scale threshold).
MRJ is on hold. :cry:
The NEO has a classy problem, its sold too well. Airbus must deliver... literally!
The MAX needs more sales.

A few more CEO sales are needed due to NEO engines (or more precisely, the lack of them).

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whywhyzee
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:35 pm

While it is a longshot, AC could place an A321neoLR for mainline + Rouge. I know they have been looking at it quite closely, and there are a number of Rouge 767s especially that need replacement imminently. With their new contract, cutting some widebody capacity in exchange for more narrowbody capacity would allow them to grow beyond the possibilities of 25 widebodies.

While I see that order as likely, AC doesn't seem like the company to order at an airshow.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:36 pm

Btblue wrote:
British Airways - putting in a massive order for the 777-9 to replace outstanding 747s.

North American and European carriers (BA included) announcing LOI for the 797.

Potential Icelandair 787/797 order....


I bet 3 fingers on none of those happening.
 
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:39 pm

musman9853 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
StrandedAtMKG wrote:
This is the year the 797 becomes a reality. No way Boeing waits another year for Paris next year (as satisfying as it would be to see it announced on Airbus's turf.) Look for several launch customer orders and a firm configuration announcement.


No 797 launch until there is a firm engine plan, and I very much doubt there will be one by Farnborough. I think 2019 is right.

Edit: Oh, and the other thing: if there is not a BA A380 order by Farnborough, it's never going to happen. I wouldn't be shocked by an order for 5 to 10, though, despite the latest rumors.



What's the load factor like on BAs 380s? Are they filling enough seats to make more what worthwhile?


Small sample size, but my flight from ORD to LHR a couple of weeks ago was jammed solid - not an empty seat in Y or Y+. J very busy as well, don't know about F.
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Runway28L
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:48 pm

Lots of hot takes in this thread...

I don't expect much of anything other than options being firmed up, some small fill-in orders by certain airlines, and maybe one or two big orders. I imagine the A330neo will get a boost as Airbus claims they have orders that have yet to be announced.

Where did the notion that B6 would announce their fleet decision at Farnborough come from?
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jalarner
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
For the E2/C-series, orders are a must (in particular for the E2, the c-series had a nice Air Baltic top off which brings orders on paper over 400, giving some confidence as that is an important economy of scale threshold).
MRJ is on hold. :cry:
The NEO has a classy problem, its sold too well. Airbus must deliver... literally!
Lightsaber


That's why I think the Cseries will do well. Airbus backing/management, new production capacity with lower backlog, and no engine problems A32x have. Assuming I remember correctly, the 32x engine problem is because of mounts that do not affect the Cseries, right?
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seabosdca
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:05 pm

Andy33 wrote:
Sorry, you've obviously missed IAG's public announcements about their 744 replacement plans. They've actually published the planned number of 744s which will remain in service year by year, as recently as November, and the planes that will replace them in the period up to the end of 2022. No 779s in that replacement tranche at all. The A35Ks are specifically stated as one-for-one replacements for 744s, and have been since the day they were first ordered.
It is only the final 12 744s, due to leave between January 2023 and February 2024 (yes, they're that specific) that don't have clearly identified replacements, and these as other posters in the thread have said, are likely to be those used on the shortest routes, a trend which has been evident for several years, as the longer routes are switched to more fuel-efficient planes. East Coast USA is very well within 787-10 and A35K range, why add complexity?


I've seen the plans, and I'm not discounting them. But it's foolish to assume that BA will never need to change the network, or seek to reallocate capacity among markets served by multiple flights. I still think that total capacity (or, probably more accurately, total J capacity) is the best way to judge if the 744 replacement is complete, and what they have plus 12 more 35K/78X won't quite get them there. Shrinking capacity may boost short-term profits, or stem losses where an airline has become overextended, but it is hardly the way to keep the airline in a good position over the long term.

I think the reason we don't yet have identified replacements for that last tranche of 744s is because IAG/BA don't want to set a decision in stone until they have to. They are in the enviable position of being able to order anything from 12 78X all the way up to 15 A380, or any combination of aircraft in between. That said, my prediction is that they will eventually order either 15x more 35K or 15x 779. Either way Farnborough might not be a bad place to make an announcement.

QR might well be co-operative in re-allocating slots - they're a major shareholder in IAG, of course. But how many slots do they have for delivery in 2023? As for EY, well anything is possible, but again, how many slots do they have for 2023?. You have pushed the requirement up to 16, do both airlines combined have 16 slots all for delivery in 2023?
[/quote]

There will be something like 80 777X delivered in 2023. Current customers on the order book are EK, EY, QR, LH, NH, and SQ. I'm sure that 1) there are 12 slots that could be available, given that all of the ME3 currently have more capacity on order than they can possibly use, and 2) EY and QR are the airlines who would most like to defer 777X deliveries (EK would probably prefer to defer A380s). If more than 12 aircraft are ordered the last deliveries could be later.
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:12 am

Aeromexico is connected to the C-Series for a Farnborough order - at least Airliner World´s editor seems to think so.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/bombardier-poised-to-announce-more-orders-for-cseries-37048035.html
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:32 am

seabosdca wrote:

There will be something like 80 777X delivered in 2023. Current customers on the order book are EK, EY, QR, LH, NH, and SQ. I'm sure that 1) there are 12 slots that could be available, given that all of the ME3 currently have more capacity on order than they can possibly use, and 2) EY and QR are the airlines who would most like to defer 777X deliveries (EK would probably prefer to defer A380s). If more than 12 aircraft are ordered the last deliveries could be later.


I do not see the 777X having anything like that delivery rate. I suspect rate 5 or 6 is the maximum they will get to.
 
AAMDanny
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:49 am

My guess would be the Thomas Cook Group for A330NEO's to replace the 767/330's accross TCX/Condor & TCS.
 
sand26391
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:21 am

We can expect IndiGo & Vistara placing orders for Widebodies. Maybe A330Neos for 6E & 787s for Vistara (?)
 
VSMUT
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:31 am

Isn't Airbus officially taking over the C-series around the time of the airshow? It would make sense if they have something big lined up. Maybe the long awaited rebranding as the A210 and A230? What about order announcements? We know that Air Baltic will probably be re-announced, and now some Aeromexico rumours too.

For Boeing, not really too many surprises here. They have gotten into the habit of announcing them in the weeks prior, and then re-announcing them at the airshow. I would expect a bunch of 737s for the leasing companies as well. The 797/mum could be a big announcement, but it could just as well be another 737 variant.
 
StTim
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:34 am

VSMUT wrote:
Isn't Airbus officially taking over the C-series around the time of the airshow? It would make sense if they have something big lined up. Maybe the long awaited rebranding as the A210 and A230? What about order announcements? We know that Air Baltic will probably be re-announced, and now some Aeromexico rumours too.

For Boeing, not really too many surprises here. They have gotten into the habit of announcing them in the weeks prior, and then re-announcing them at the airshow. I would expect a bunch of 737s for the leasing companies as well. The 797/mum could be a big announcement, but it could just as well be another 737 variant.


Until the deal is done Airbus cannot sell the C-Series.
I am not saying there won't be an order but it would be very quick.
 
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:03 am

The C-Series deal between Bombardier and Airbus will become effective on July 1st, the airshow starts on the 16th. So that's 2 weeks to close any deals that could already been negotiated the last couple of months. It's not like anything prevented Bombardier and Airbus to talk to airlines about possible orders. The AirBaltic deal was also announced in this period. Other deals might just be dependant on the formal closing of the Bombardier-Airbus deal. So I would be very surprised if there won't be any large deals for the CSeries.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:22 am

I expect to see easyJet taking / forming up more options for the a321 . Saw on a news thread there bringing the first one in to the show on Thursday
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:45 am

StTim wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

There will be something like 80 777X delivered in 2023. Current customers on the order book are EK, EY, QR, LH, NH, and SQ. I'm sure that 1) there are 12 slots that could be available, given that all of the ME3 currently have more capacity on order than they can possibly use, and 2) EY and QR are the airlines who would most like to defer 777X deliveries (EK would probably prefer to defer A380s). If more than 12 aircraft are ordered the last deliveries could be later.


I do not see the 777X having anything like that delivery rate. I suspect rate 5 or 6 is the maximum they will get to.


I expect rate 3.5 to stay on through 2023. 235 of the 326 current orders are EY, EK and QR. I expect EY to cancel or defer and QR could defer some too. Emirates will take its frame over a long time frame, at least ten years, replacing 777-300ER and 777-200LR. Even if LH takes all its ordered frames, 20, they could also defer some.
 
LewisNEO
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:13 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Btblue wrote:
British Airways - putting in a massive order for the 777-9 to replace outstanding 747s.

North American and European carriers (BA included) announcing LOI for the 797.

Potential Icelandair 787/797 order....


Nothing like swinging for the fence. :-)

StrandedAtMKG wrote:
This is the year the 797 becomes a reality. No way Boeing waits another year for Paris next year (as satisfying as it would be to see it announced on Airbus's turf.) Look for several launch customer orders and a firm configuration announcement.


I think Boeing has hinted at a 2019 launch, but I don't have any links.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/418239 ... tock-price
Among many articles, everywhere is suggested a 2019 launch is most likely
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IWMBH
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:33 pm

Any rumours of any orders from KL? Maybe the a narrowbody order? The replacements for the 747's are already ordered so it seems unlikely we see any wide-body orders.
 
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:13 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Any rumours of any orders from KL? Maybe the a narrowbody order? The replacements for the 747's are already ordered so it seems unlikely we see any wide-body orders.


They ordered 4 additional 737-800s earlier this year. Maybe they will be reannounced.

I doubt that they would place such a small separate order if they were also planning to order the 737MAX so shortly after, so I really can't see a KLM MAX order at this airshow. They could of course go the A320NEO route... :duck:
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:53 pm

VSMUT wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Any rumours of any orders from KL? Maybe the a narrowbody order? The replacements for the 747's are already ordered so it seems unlikely we see any wide-body orders.


They ordered 4 additional 737-800s earlier this year. Maybe they will be reannounced.

I doubt that they would place such a small separate order if they were also planning to order the 737MAX so shortly after, so I really can't see a KLM MAX order at this airshow. They could of course go the A320NEO route... :duck:


I don't know KL's normal approach, but plenty of airlines have ordered planes weeks or perhaps a few months apart, or will order X version then a few weeks or a few months later will change the model breakdown, and I always wonder why they didn't just order them all at once - in other words, what changed? Who knows, but it's happened enough times that I no longer question it.
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Momo1435
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:52 pm

The 737-800 are leases that have actually never been "announced", no press releases, just an insider post on a Dutch internet forum. So it's possible that KLM will announce something, but it's more likely that AF-KLM will announce something for both airlines. A separate MAX order for Transavia would be more likely, even if it's just a lease deal.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:51 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The 737-800 are leases that have actually never been "announced", no press releases, just an insider post on a Dutch internet forum. So it's possible that KLM will announce something, but it's more likely that AF-KLM will announce something for both airlines. A separate MAX order for Transavia would be more likely, even if it's just a lease deal.


Do you know how many KLM 738's are leases? I can't find anything about it. There early 738's are over 19 years old, I know KLM uses there planes for a long time but isn't it time for something new?
 
kevin5345179
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:24 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Not picking any A380 top up orders - QR would be a plus.
Indigo A339 order worth watching. How about another from a different carrier?
797 seems a long way off by all reports. Maybe we could see some Airbus action as a result. UAL for example.
Maybe a handful of A359 for desiring carriers? Top-ups, one or two new operators
Be nice to see an order for the A35K. Not picking CI as their 77W still very young in the tooth. Hard to predict. Several operators with aging fleets (TG or AF for example) but not a peep about pending orders.
And what about ET's 777x order? 777x needs orders too.
Maybe cancellation or deferral of some of the EY order book is in the wings.... they are in a hard place.
Not really up to speed with narrow body at the moment. Neos and Max orders pending for instance. C series and EMB2. Seems to me there are quite a few gas guzzlers still out there in mainline fleets nearing retirement age but haven't cross mapped current orders with this info so not sure what we can expect in the near term.

All in all with fuel heading up it could be on the quiet side. Be interesting to see.


All CI's 77Ws are leased (12 yrs) and they are only 1/3 into the contract
At this point, they are having too many planes, but things will be the exact opposite when they start to return 77Ws
I certainly feel like they need few higher MTOW (at least 278t or even 280t with new winglets will be optimal) A359s to replace 77W for their JFK route
I'm not so certain they'll make decisions on widebodies but they better order their narrowbodies
They are also looking to replace their old A330 with either buying new planes or leasing them
Given the A330neo tour doesn't have TPE stop, I don't feel like they are about to make decision yet
 
kevin5345179
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:27 pm

Btblue wrote:
British Airways - putting in a massive order for the 777-9 to replace outstanding 747s.

North American and European carriers (BA included) announcing LOI for the 797.

Potential Icelandair 787/797 order....


doesn't even feel like 797 will happen this year ....
 
kevin5345179
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Re: Farnborough International Airshow 2018 Potential Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:34 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
There are only 36 747s left, and a mix of A35Ks and 787-10s is already on order for delivery 2019-2022 to replace all but 12.
So the "massive order" won't be more than 12 at best, and as the last BA 744 leaves in February 2024, effectively all of them will have to be delivered in 2023. Nobody has yet been able to confirm that Boeing even has uncommitted production slots for 12 779s during 2022/3. Can you?


A couple points here:

1) I doubt that 78Xs and 35Ks will be one-for-one replacements. As always with big airlines we need to be thinking in terms of total capacity rather than number of frames. Those aircraft will replace most of the 744 capacity, but there would be room for an order of 15-16 779 before any potential growth is taken into account. (Or, as I suggested above, 10 A380 could fill the same role.)

2) I have no doubt that both EY and QR would be quite happy to defer as much of their 77X orders as Boeing would need to provide slots to BA. A380 slots wouldn't be an issue either, as EK will be happy to slow down deliveries if BA wants slots.


I saw BA replacing B744 with 789 already
I see your point for 1), but apparently BA doesn't believe in such way ......

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