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Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:50 pm
by BWIAirport
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... spartanntp

There are still plenty of hoops to jump through and frankly I don't see it actually happening, but it's fun to theorize. What impact could this have on the aviation industry? I'd imagine tax laws would be slightly different across the three states. How would the Bay Area and Socal markets develop? Would airlines put more focus into both LA and SF, rather than just settling for one or the other?
Love to hear your thoughts

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:10 pm
by ikramerica
None. It would take quite a while to come to fruition, and then what would it matter? Domestic is domestic. International is international.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:19 pm
by GoneSovereign
It will more than likely cost the airlines a little bit of money to re-label things but nothing earth shattering.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:22 pm
by MIflyer12
BWIAirport wrote:
I'd imagine tax laws would be slightly different across the three states.


Please point to how state corporate tax law has meaningful impact on aviation in the U.S. (It doesn't. Assets and income aren't taxed at rates high enough to have a difference. Carriers still fly to NYC, CHI and LAX because that's where travelers want to go.)

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:42 pm
by NameOmitted
Well... It would add 2 state capitols, and may well change where people want to fly regionally.

It also might provide an opening for Puerto Rico to become a state.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:44 pm
by SumChristianus
Will never happen....
Iffffff it did......SMF would see reductions on "current" intra-state routes, AS would have to decide which state it wants to be the "go-to" airline in...…,WN will add frequencies to the new state capital(s).

I'm not sure what to say on how the state would do economically in this scenario. I "think" one of the states would pull economically far above the other(s) in terms of economic growth, but not sure how "jerrymandering" would affect this. Again, to stay on topic and not get political, I think this will never happen.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:00 pm
by MCIRNO
A good geography theory of adjustment to ponder...for the sake of argument, if one reads the actual county breakup, the LA basin airports would be split into two different states: ONT, SNA, LGB into "S CA" and LAX, BUR into "CA"...that'd be strange.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:43 pm
by alasizon
MCIRNO wrote:
A good geography theory of adjustment to ponder...for the sake of argument, if one reads the actual county breakup, the LA basin airports would be split into two different states: ONT, SNA, LGB into "S CA" and LAX, BUR into "CA"...that'd be strange.


LGB would be part of regular old California. LGB is in LA County.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:39 pm
by atcsundevil
A few users believe this thread should be in Non Av, but provided this discussion sticks to speculation on the aviation impacts of a split California, then belongs in Civ Av.

Please just keep the discussion on topic.

✈️ atcsundevil

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:47 am
by atcsundevil
JUST A REMINDER:

This thread is in the Civil Aviation Forum, and this is discussing the aviation impacts of a split California.

All other discussion belongs in the Non Aviation Forum!

✈️ atcsundevil

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:00 am
by enilria
atcsundevil wrote:
JUST A REMINDER:

This thread is in the Civil Aviation Forum, and this is discussing the aviation impacts of a split California.

All other discussion belongs in the Non Aviation Forum!

✈️ atcsundevil

This isn't going to have any effect at all on aviation because domestic is still domestic and it will never happen. It should be in politics.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:07 am
by Newbiepilot
Anything that stops the high speed rail from connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles is a win for the Airlines. I see them doing anything they can to block it so that people continue flying between the Bay Area and So Cal.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:10 am
by atcsundevil
enilria wrote:
This isn't going to have any effect at all on aviation because domestic is still domestic and it will never happen. It should be in politics.

Okay, well that's the discussion the OP wished to have. I agree that it's unlikely, but that doesn't stop many of the speculative threads from taking place in this forum. You're free to start a topic in the Non Aviation Forum to discuss the political aspect, but that's not what this topic is for.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:34 am
by Aptivaboy
Anything that stops the high speed rail from connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles is a win for the Airlines. I see them doing anything they can to block it so that people continue flying between the Bay Area and So Cal.


Thee's nothing that they can do. The project will be finished or the politicians behind it will die trying. Its become an ideological thing, for them. The airlines could find the cure for cancer and offer to trade it to halt the Railroad to Nowhere, and the state government would turn them down. The state is at the point now where they're skimming gas tax money to fund it, and they're about to be audited by the federal Department of Transportation to find out there the money they contributed has gone. The danged thing has already cost many hundreds of millions of dollars and not an inch of track has been laid. And, it will mainly connect cities like Bakersfield. It must go through existing urban areas using low speed track, so it really isn't high speed rail in any tangible form. Studies have shows that with all of the stops it will make, it will still be almost as fast to drive if traffic is good. Other studies dispute that, but not by very much. Whichever talking head expert one believes, the bullet train's speed - actual time between major urban centers might be a better term - will at best be only marginally better than what already exists, and that's being very generous.

I'll admit to voting for the train when it was first proposed. The way it was presented then was far different from the form that the project eventually took. Its time to kill this black hole of a project. Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:36 am
by AAlaxfan
MIflyer12 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I'd imagine tax laws would be slightly different across the three states.


Please point to how state corporate tax law has meaningful impact on aviation in the U.S. (It doesn't. Assets and income aren't taxed at rates high enough to have a difference. Carriers still fly to NYC, CHI and LAX because that's where travelers want to go.)

More like each "state" could implement their own "Aviation usage tax". Income taxes for the employees could change causing staffing issues. Taxes on aviation fuel. One of the states could impose a minimum wage law greater than what is the federal mandate.There's a lot of different ways each "state" could make an economic impact on the aviation industry.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:40 am
by nomorerjs
This won’t pass. Even if it passed, it’s all domestic. Just would impact state contracts with airlines.

Now if California seceded to become an independent country or part of Canada, Russia, or North Korea (won’t happen, but most of the US would welcome this), then there would be changes.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:50 am
by flyingclrs727
nomorerjs wrote:
This won’t pass. Even if it passed, it’s all domestic. Just would impact state contracts with airlines.

Now if California seceded to become an independent country or part of Canada, Russia, or North Korea (won’t happen, but most of the US would welcome this), then there would be changes.


If the the state of of California seceded, its quite likely that large parts of California might try to secede from the California government in Sacremento similar to West Virginia seceding from Virginia at the beginning of the Civil War. In that case, the president would probably close down lots of air space over California and limit civilian aircraft to operations at airports under the control of the US government.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:57 am
by flyingclrs727
Newbiepilot wrote:
Anything that stops the high speed rail from connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles is a win for the Airlines. I see them doing anything they can to block it so that people continue flying between the Bay Area and So Cal.


Why would anyone want to travel on a train that is more expensive, has much longer travel time, and has a less scenic view than flights between San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:01 am
by phluser
Maybe damaging to SMF demand if LAX, SAN and the other airports are no longer in the same state.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:15 am
by nomorerjs
flyingclrs727 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
This won’t pass. Even if it passed, it’s all domestic. Just would impact state contracts with airlines.

Now if California seceded to become an independent country or part of Canada, Russia, or North Korea (won’t happen, but most of the US would welcome this), then there would be changes.


If the the state of of California seceded, its quite likely that large parts of California might try to secede from the California government in Sacremento similar to West Virginia seceding from Virginia at the beginning of the Civil War. In that case, the president would probably close down lots of air space over California and limit civilian aircraft to operations at airports under the control of the US government.


All hypothetical and won’t happen. That was talked about in Texas a few years ago and nothing happened.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:34 am
by Newbiepilot
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Anything that stops the high speed rail from connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles is a win for the Airlines. I see them doing anything they can to block it so that people continue flying between the Bay Area and So Cal.


Why would anyone want to travel on a train that is more expensive, has much longer travel time, and has a less scenic view than flights between San Francisco and Los Angeles.


Airport hassles, security, and constant SFO delays can make a train a more pleasant option. Airlines are advocating against the train. if California splits there may be less incentive for a train.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:40 am
by flyingclrs727
nomorerjs wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
This won’t pass. Even if it passed, it’s all domestic. Just would impact state contracts with airlines.

Now if California seceded to become an independent country or part of Canada, Russia, or North Korea (won’t happen, but most of the US would welcome this), then there would be changes.


If the the state of of California seceded, its quite likely that large parts of California might try to secede from the California government in Sacremento similar to West Virginia seceding from Virginia at the beginning of the Civil War. In that case, the president would probably close down lots of air space over California and limit civilian aircraft to operations at airports under the control of the US government.


All hypothetical and won’t happen. That was talked about in Texas a few years ago and nothing happened.


This whole thread is hypothetical. At least I based my post on history.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:40 am
by c933103
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Anything that stops the high speed rail from connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles is a win for the Airlines. I see them doing anything they can to block it so that people continue flying between the Bay Area and So Cal.


Why would anyone want to travel on a train that is more expensive, has much longer travel time, and has a less scenic view than flights between San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Like Tokaido Shinkansen is currently more expensive and has longer travel time from departure to arrival but still captured almost 90% traffic between the two largest cities in Japan?
flyingclrs727 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
This won’t pass. Even if it passed, it’s all domestic. Just would impact state contracts with airlines.

Now if California seceded to become an independent country or part of Canada, Russia, or North Korea (won’t happen, but most of the US would welcome this), then there would be changes.


If the the state of of California seceded, its quite likely that large parts of California might try to secede from the California government in Sacremento similar to West Virginia seceding from Virginia at the beginning of the Civil War. In that case, the president would probably close down lots of air space over California and limit civilian aircraft to operations at airports under the control of the US government.

What? The proposal in this thread is about cutting apart the state of California, NOT about seceding from the US

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:50 am
by FA9295
flyingclrs727 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:

If the the state of of California seceded, its quite likely that large parts of California might try to secede from the California government in Sacremento similar to West Virginia seceding from Virginia at the beginning of the Civil War. In that case, the president would probably close down lots of air space over California and limit civilian aircraft to operations at airports under the control of the US government.


All hypothetical and won’t happen. That was talked about in Texas a few years ago and nothing happened.


This whole thread is hypothetical. At least I based my post on history.

True, but the difference in comparison to Texas is that the idea actually made it to the ballot this time...

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:00 am
by Beardown91737
Let's assume the most likely capitals
Northern California: Sacramento
SMF would retain flights to major hubs and to the two new state capitals. Would also retain flights to LAX and SAN, even if those are not selected as capitals of the respective new states. However, there would be reductions to all southern CA destinations due to the reduction in state government travel. ONT and PSP would depend on whether they serve the new capital of Southern California. Flights to western hubs would likely remain (DEN, SLC, PHX). May also retain mid-continent hubs.

California: Los Angeles
LAX: Increase in service to MRY and SLO due to state business. The rest is driving distance (kind of).
BUR: The only decrease caused by the change would be SMF. Potential FAT if it becomes the capital of Southern California.

Southern California: San Diego
No guarantees that SD is selected, but it has a large population and already a lot of State and Federal buildings and employees. In that case Fresno gets its FAT-SAN multiple daily departures. As state capital, SAN could also be served by BFL, IYK, YUM, and MMH.

Next, the other possible capitals:
Northern California: Oakland.
Assuming San Fran and the Silicon Valley are too expensive, and Marin is too anti-development, the new state could be tired of the Sacramento establishment and designate a new capital in the East Bay, served by OAK. In that case, all NoCal state business shifts there, and SMF becomes TUS, without the snowbirds, defense industry, and without a large university with a lot of out of state students (and I am aware that much of that leaks to PHX).

California: Ventura
Santa Barbara is nice, but woudn't want to be a state capital. That leaves Ventura and the interesting idea that it is theoretically within driving distance of the entire (new) state. At least between 11PM and 3AM. The rest will be a mess of traffic. The hardest journeys will wind up being from Pomona and Long Beach, but that will not translate into Ventura/Oxnard getting air service from ONT and LGB.

Southern California: Orange County
This would have the advantage of being near the California capital of Los Angeles. SNA then adds the service from FAT, BFL, IYK, YUM, and MMH. Service increases to interstate destinations. These developments are exactly what the Newport Beach NIMBYs want to avoid.

Southern California: Fresno
An interesting alternative to throw a biscuit to the Central Valley. The High Speed Rail project could be useful for travel to Fresno, but the counties that would be Southern CA are largely against the Crazy Train, and the train is supposed to pass through Los Angeles. This boosts FAT's acquisition of Mid-con destinations, and FAT gets intra-state service from SAN, SNA, ONT, PSP, and YUM.

Longer shots of being the SoCal capital are:
1. Riverside or San Bernardino. Both county seats and state travel would center on ONT. This boosts chances of ORD, and solidifies the TPAC service as overseas industrial companies move their operations from the coastal state to the more economical new state.

2. Palm Springs. Increase interstate and intra-state traffic, plus service to the Northern California capital. Yes it is hot but Phoenix is the capital of Arizona.

nomorerjs wrote:
This won’t pass. Even if it passed, it’s all domestic. Just would impact state contracts with airlines.

Now if California seceded to become an independent country or part of Canada, Russia, or North Korea (won’t happen, but most of the US would welcome this), then there would be changes.


Most of the US wishes they could live in California. However, the split-up proposal is polling under 20% so you are correct on that account.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:54 pm
by evank516
I think the only impact it would have is that intrastate flights would turn into interstate flights.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:12 pm
by aklrno
I think the most significant impact will be increased air traffic due to all the flying pigs.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:19 am
by airzona11
MIflyer12 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I'd imagine tax laws would be slightly different across the three states.


Please point to how state corporate tax law has meaningful impact on aviation in the U.S. (It doesn't. Assets and income aren't taxed at rates high enough to have a difference. Carriers still fly to NYC, CHI and LAX because that's where travelers want to go.)


Are you serious? State tax laws impact every business. Flights to airports are driven by consumer demand, but there are huge implications where all the airline support happens, corporate, etc.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:11 am
by FATFlyer
Beardown91737 wrote:
Next, the other possible capitals:
California: Ventura
Santa Barbara is nice, but woudn't want to be a state capital. That leaves Ventura and the interesting idea that it is theoretically within driving distance of the entire (new) state. At least between 11PM and 3AM. The rest will be a mess of traffic. The hardest journeys will wind up being from Pomona and Long Beach, but that will not translate into Ventura/Oxnard getting air service from ONT and LGB.

The San Luis Obispo newspaper has offered up state capital possibilities in that area.
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/opinion/editorials/article213099449.html
WN732 wrote:
Although San Francisco used to be the Capitol of CA years ago, I foresee the Sacramento establishment staying the same. The Bay Area folks are happy with their current setup. I don't think they'd appreciate the increase in traffic either.

San Francisco has never been the California Capital.

The historical capital cities starting with the Constitutional Convention:
Monterey - September 9, 1849 - October 13, 1849 (Site of the State Constitutional Convention)
San Jose - December 15, 1849 - May 1, 1851 (Statehood on September 9, 1850)
Vallejo - January 5, 1852 - January 12, 1852
Sacramento - January 16, 1852 - November 2, 1853
Vallejo - January 3, 1853 - February 4, 1853
Benicia - February 11, 1853 - February 25, 1854
Sacramento - February 28, 1854 - present
http://capitolmuseum.ca.gov/architecture-and-history/california-state-capitol-history-part-one

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:25 am
by WN732
FATFlyer wrote:
Beardown91737 wrote:
Next, the other possible capitals:
California: Ventura
Santa Barbara is nice, but woudn't want to be a state capital. That leaves Ventura and the interesting idea that it is theoretically within driving distance of the entire (new) state. At least between 11PM and 3AM. The rest will be a mess of traffic. The hardest journeys will wind up being from Pomona and Long Beach, but that will not translate into Ventura/Oxnard getting air service from ONT and LGB.

The San Luis Obispo newspaper has offered up state capitalpossibilities in that area.
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/opinion/editorials/article213099449.html
WN732 wrote:
Although San Francisco used to be the Capitol of CA years ago, I foresee the Sacramento establishment staying the same. The Bay Area folks are happy with their current setup. I don't think they'd appreciate the increase in traffic either.

San Francisco has never been the California Capital.

The historical capital cities starting with the Constitutional Convention:
Monterey - September 9, 1849 - October 13, 1849 (Site of the State Constitutional Convention)
San Jose - December 15, 1849 - May 1, 1851 (Statehood on September 9, 1850)
Vallejo - January 5, 1852 - January 12, 1852
Sacramento - January 16, 1852 - November 2, 1853
Vallejo - January 3, 1853 - February 4, 1853
Benicia - February 11, 1853 - February 25, 1854
Sacramento - February 28, 1854 - present
http://capitolmuseum.ca.gov/architecture-and-history/california-state-capitol-history-part-one



Oops, you're right. I mixed it up with San Jose

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:29 am
by FlyingSicilian
To digress one moment to clarify the Texas topic brought up: Some folks did mention secession at one point (as have Californians...Texit, Calexit...) Secession is not legal and the precedent for that was backed up by the Union actions and victory in the Civil War.

Texas is unique in that it CAN split itself up into up to five states without US congressional approval (Texas cannot secede, that is a myth). The annexation treaty for the Republic of Texas and the United States covers that and it is in force. As others have noted above California would need not only state approval but congressional as well, something that has not happened since West Virginia in 1863 and that was dubious at best but the Civil War was a good excuse. So IMO the California split is not going to happen especially since it would mean an increase in Democratic senators the Republicans will never vote for it and vice versa if a red state like Oklahoma wanted to split the Democrats would not.

All that said, IMO the aviation aspect would be felt in how various airport taxes would be adjusted and if the subsequent states would subsidize certain airports more or less and if some former intra-state travel was curtailed as ties to places like Sacramento were cut back from the southern areas. Interesting conversation topic though.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:16 am
by Duality
By the time this happens, we wont be flying in airplanes.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:17 am
by stratclub
Other than maybe changing some stationary and signage, completely a non issue. In regards to San Bernardina being considered as a capital, SBD has a fairly new passenger terminal with zero tenants, so any kind of aerospace growth could happen if the taxes levee-ed with SB being part of an independent state made sense.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:11 am
by hz747300
I don't know if new state capitals will necessarily mean new air service is required. If PHX-SMF is 5x daily, it'll probably only need to be 5x daily afterwards. I don't think airlines have to pay for overfly rights to states, so the impact would be minimal. I agree, that which new state that Alaska Airlines picks to be the key airline for is the primary question. :)

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:45 am
by Jomar777
Very unlikely to provide significant changes.

1) This is a potentially Domestic Dispute so no Country Borders involved like Cataluna and/or Scotland, for example;
2) Will not shift significantly the economics at least on a short or medium term;
3) Even if approved, it will take literally ages to actually be implemented
4) Very unlikely to be approved. There's appetite to discuss and even bring to vote but I do not think it will win it

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:07 am
by Siddar
The split would produce six senators where as the status quo produces two. That is big shift in balance of power between the states. I don't see that being accepted by the rest states. The referendum is likely to pass though as pay back from the almost half California that feels ignored by state government. A fitting response to calexit nonsense that the left was promoting last year. So I see this being past at the state level but blocked at the national level.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:15 am
by ssteve
PSA's intrastate routes are doomed! The federal regulators will have their say now.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:35 pm
by flyfresno
One huge benefit to putting the capitol in Fresno is the availability of land to construct all the necessary buildings, and the much cheaper price of land. In SAN, the all of the state capitol infrastructure would either need to be placed outside the core downtown area, or there would need to be a lot of eminent domain (expensive), or current buildings would need to be re-purposed (probably also expensive). Geographically, BFL makes the most sense, but I would be rooting for Fresno for sure.

Re: Vote to split California will move to ballot - Impact on Aviation?

Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:21 pm
by WN732
flyfresno wrote:
One huge benefit to putting the capitol in Fresno is the availability of land to construct all the necessary buildings, and the much cheaper price of land. In SAN, the all of the state capitol infrastructure would either need to be placed outside the core downtown area, or there would need to be a lot of eminent domain (expensive), or current buildings would need to be re-purposed (probably also expensive). Geographically, BFL makes the most sense, but I would be rooting for Fresno for sure.


WN would certainly start FAT in that scenario. They would not leave the void of having the capitol of SoCal wide open. I would imagine that there would be enough government traffic to justify opening a new station. Granted, it won't be SMF, or even ONT, but we will at least have something.