hz747300
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:49 am

DL never seemed to get SEA-HKG correctly. The rumour had been that CX would launch this route. Maybe it can make it work with onward connections from HK whereas DL could not with onward connections from SEA. I suppose they are not even going to bring back the HKG-NRT-LAX route then?
Keep on truckin'...
 
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neomax
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osakab

Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:55 am

questions wrote:
Why does Delta appear to be struggling so much to build TPAC market share? One of the advantages of the DL/NW merger was to gain NW’s TPAC routes and presence. Delta seems to be dismantling and squandering the opportunity.

BKK is out. JFK-Asia is out. US-HKG is out. (NRT makes sense.)

Was the profitability always questionable?
Has the profitability been on the decline because of DL’s inability to continue to develop business/penetrate the market?
Has the competitive landscape changed that much?
Does DL not have the right aircraft to serve the markets?
Are DL’s gateway hubs just too weak on the global stage, e.g., SEA, MSP, DTW?


1. No, not in the NW era.
2. No, more their lack of willingness rather than lack of ability.
3. Yes, but not enough to result in DL exiting completely.
4. Yes.
5. Yes.
 
toobz
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:17 am

All these people comparing what UA is doing to DL. Have u seen UA financials compared to DL? DL could match that if they kept routes that aren’t performing to DLs strict yield requirements. I’m sure DL has very competent folks working in route planning that know more than the wannabes on this forum.
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:34 am

With a cut like this you've got to wonder: what keeps DL operating a route like LAX-SYD? Seems like it would be easier and much more profitable to hand the flying off to JV partner VA, no?
 
mdavies06
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:08 am

The route cut is sad news. NW has been flying regularly to HKG since 1950s or 1960s(?) and I don't think it ever stopped since at least the 1990s. I would attribute this most directly to DL's decision to not take up the 787 which would have saved the route. However, I suppose they probably ran the numbers and felt it is too marginal a route to fight for with the 787. I will give it 24 months before either CX or HX launching SEA-HKG, which will effectively close the door for its return. However, there are still DTW or MSP or even ATL one day I am sure. With low yields due to fierce competitions from the Chinese carriers, I think DL is right to be selective in the China and HKG markets.

As for KIX, DL may actually find a niche as there are only UA and JL I believe flying KIX-US, so at least the supply of seats are not too high just looking at the direct flights.
 
jfk777
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:47 am

The world's airlines salivate at the chance to fly to Hong Kong. No matter where they fly from Africa, North America, Europe & Australia HKG is a must on an airlines Asian route system. Many operators fly their A380 and 777 to HKG with premium configurations. Delta needs to fly to HKG from its strength not a weak west coast hub. Detroit is Delta's strongest hub for Asia and the A350-900 is their best plane, so that should be the mission at Delta. Flying an A350 from DTW to AMS is a waste and can be covered by one of their many A330's. Its also not too late to order 787-9 with GE engines which DL has only many of their A330's. Asia can be fixed to make Northwest Orient proud.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:07 pm

Just step back and look what is actually changing. There are several groups to consider:

Group 1- Pax from SEA to HKG: obviously worse off, had nonstop but now must connect in ICN.

Group 2- Pax in markets with KE/DL service to ICN flying to HKG. (This includes ATL/DTW/NYC/ORD/IAD/LAX/etc.). If you were flying DL metal, you either had to connect in SEA or ICN before anyway. ICN is probably a better connection geographically anyway. For many of these markets, connecting in SEA adds several hours of unnecessary flight time. So these markets all still retain a one-stop itinerary on KE/DL metal, and retain the best connection location. So really, no change.

Group 3- Pax whose airport has no flight to ICN, but whose airport does have a well timed connecting flight into SEA. (These are the small and mid-size markets in the west, as well as some eastern mostly mid-sized markets with cross country flights to SEA). Obviously a step back for this group, as you are going from one potential connection at SEA to a double connect of XXX- SEA/ATL/DTW/etc.- ICN -HKG.

Group 4- Pax whose airport did not have a flight into SEA (or maybe just one lone flight into SEA that was not timed well to make the connection onto SEA-HKG). These are all the mid to smaller markets, mainly in the east, who almost all have a flight to DTW/ATL/MSP/etc. This group remains unchanged in having to double connect for the same reasons as Group 2 above.


So the only folks really negatively impacted by the SEA-HKG drop are groups 1 and 3 above. The question then is, how many pax in those group 1 or 3 airports had strong ties to HKG? I am guessing not that many, which is why SEA-HKG didn’t work out, and why this isn’t that big a deal.

Further, as the KE/DL JV continues to build, I think you will see a few more additions to ICN which would bump up some airports from my group 3 to group 2... reducing the impact further.
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:51 pm

At this point, I would be shocked if sin to nrt sticks around. The reality is you need strong Asian partners to make these flights to Tokyo and Hong Kong profitable. Skyteam simply don’t have them in the right location.

If you are flying to business from New York or la to Tokyo or Hong Kong, you are going to go with one world or star alliance. Skyteam is not a good option to the most important Asian business markets.
 
hz747300
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:52 pm

I believe DL tried HKG/DTW once as well. Probably the best idea if they want to be in HKG. No one really looks at a route map and says "No HKG, you suck!" If it was working, they would have kept it. I don't think they have to be here--UA did pretty well not serving JFK for many years.

My mom flew the SEA on DL flight to visit us last summer, and because it is one of the few US flights that overflies the China Mainland, they were delayed two hours leaving HKG because of ATC over China. So if you had a well-timed connection, it's blown. That's why most US flights from HKG skirt around China, go over Taiwan, then next to Japan before heading out over the Pacific.
Keep on truckin'...
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:58 pm

Their JV requires that they both put their own capacity/ metal into the market. If they were pull out then the JV would go away, as the JV is predicated on the notion of sharing risks and metal neutrality.

TransWorldOne wrote:
With a cut like this you've got to wonder: what keeps DL operating a route like LAX-SYD? Seems like it would be easier and much more profitable to hand the flying off to JV partner VA, no?
 
SUNCTRY738
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:02 pm

Wouldn't the originally ordered 788's be having RR engine issues now if DL had not canceled that order?
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osakab

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:07 pm

Northwest's route network worked in a world where you didnt have aircraft capable of ultra long haul flying. Or rather, it worked in a world where you had to stop multiple times on your way to Asia. Once airplanes came along that enabled nonstop flights to China/ Hong Kong/ deep Asia from all over North America, Northwest's hub structure, which was centered around a Tokyo hub, died. BKK is crap for any US carrier as yields are very low - it's mostly cheap leisure flying that cannot pay for the enormous amount of aircraft time needed to fly roundtrip to the US. SIN stays around because it still, as a market, generates high yields, and for the most part requires a stop along the way. That will probably change now that aircraft such as the 787-9 and the A350 variants are allowing more viable nonstop flights from the US. Northwest worked for so long because it only had one real competitor - a weakish Pan Am - and very few Asian carriers that had the resources to expand their wings. They were the only game in town, for the most part, so people put up with long journeys over Minneapolis, Seattle, anchorage and Tokyo to get to and from Asia. Once the money and technology were there for airlines to fly nonstop from their hubs the game was up. Delta never really had a chance in Hong Kong. It's sad but that's life. Delta still has a good network to China from most places, and their partnership with Korean is way better than any hub they ever operated on their own at NRT. Lots more destinations across all of Asia, a nice terminal at ICN for connections (was there in February - beautiful and easy connection), and a growing number of destinations in the US linked to Seoul. I think they're doing the best they can given their network. Not the end of the world, it's just evolved.

neomax wrote:
questions wrote:
Why does Delta appear to be struggling so much to build TPAC market share? One of the advantages of the DL/NW merger was to gain NW’s TPAC routes and presence. Delta seems to be dismantling and squandering the opportunity.

BKK is out. JFK-Asia is out. US-HKG is out. (NRT makes sense.)

Was the profitability always questionable?
Has the profitability been on the decline because of DL’s inability to continue to develop business/penetrate the market?
Has the competitive landscape changed that much?
Does DL not have the right aircraft to serve the markets?
Are DL’s gateway hubs just too weak on the global stage, e.g., SEA, MSP, DTW?


1. No, not in the NW era.
2. No, more their lack of willingness rather than lack of ability.
3. Yes, but not enough to result in DL exiting completely.
4. Yes.
5. Yes.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:11 pm

Is this notion of HKG having the highest % of premium passengers an actual fact or just airliners.net lore? Where does this information come from?

Delta is not in the markets that generate the premium traffic anyway. Yes they're in New York, but Cathay has 3-4 flights from JFK and 1 from EWR and gets the traffic.

This notion of "it's so premium how can Delta not make it work" really isnt grounded in any fact, just a myth on this site.

Kashmon wrote:
ual763 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Is a flight to HKG what makes a carrier global or not?


Well, if you go to Hong Kong, you’ll see sign after sign claiming it’s “Asia’s Global City”.


considering HKG has the highest % of premium passengers and is a mega transit point for passengers and cargo, it is shocking that DL can't sustain flights.
 
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Keith2004
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:13 pm

kavok wrote:
Just step back and look what is actually changing. There are several groups to consider:

Group 1- Pax from SEA to HKG: obviously worse off, had nonstop but now must connect in ICN.

Group 2- Pax in markets with KE/DL service to ICN flying to HKG. (This includes ATL/DTW/NYC/ORD/IAD/LAX/etc.). If you were flying DL metal, you either had to connect in SEA or ICN before anyway. ICN is probably a better connection geographically anyway. For many of these markets, connecting in SEA adds several hours of unnecessary flight time. So these markets all still retain a one-stop itinerary on KE/DL metal, and retain the best connection location. So really, no change.

Group 3- Pax whose airport has no flight to ICN, but whose airport does have a well timed connecting flight into SEA. (These are the small and mid-size markets in the west, as well as some eastern mostly mid-sized markets with cross country flights to SEA). Obviously a step back for this group, as you are going from one potential connection at SEA to a double connect of XXX- SEA/ATL/DTW/etc.- ICN -HKG.

Group 4- Pax whose airport did not have a flight into SEA (or maybe just one lone flight into SEA that was not timed well to make the connection onto SEA-HKG). These are all the mid to smaller markets, mainly in the east, who almost all have a flight to DTW/ATL/MSP/etc. This group remains unchanged in having to double connect for the same reasons as Group 2 above.


So the only folks really negatively impacted by the SEA-HKG drop are groups 1 and 3 above. The question then is, how many pax in those group 1 or 3 airports had strong ties to HKG? I am guessing not that many, which is why SEA-HKG didn’t work out, and why this isn’t that big a deal.

Further, as the KE/DL JV continues to build, I think you will see a few more additions to ICN which would bump up some airports from my group 3 to group 2... reducing the impact further.


As a member of Group 2, this Cut is neither here nor there for me. Living in Washington DC area the KE/DL JV made my Asia options much better.

Delta is the most profitable of US3 for several reasons, and I think route discipline is one of these reasons. If a route is not working, move on; keeping a route for legacy or prestige is a sure way to lose money.

MANY things have changed in the Asia market since the Northwest days, nostalgia is powerful, but those days are not coming back.
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:30 pm

jasoncrh wrote:
Is this notion of HKG having the highest % of premium passengers an actual fact or just airliners.net lore? Where does this information come from?

Delta is not in the markets that generate the premium traffic anyway. Yes they're in New York, but Cathay has 3-4 flights from JFK and 1 from EWR and gets the traffic.

This notion of "it's so premium how can Delta not make it work" really isnt grounded in any fact, just a myth on this site.

Kashmon wrote:
ual763 wrote:

Well, if you go to Hong Kong, you’ll see sign after sign claiming it’s “Asia’s Global City”.


considering HKG has the highest % of premium passengers and is a mega transit point for passengers and cargo, it is shocking that DL can't sustain flights.


According to Oneworld presentation. Lon/tokyo/nyc/hk/singapore are the five largest worldwide premium markets (in that particular order). Interesting enough, the next 2 are Paris and Seoul. Not a myth. HKG just happens to be very dominated by CX.

Keith2004 wrote:

As a member of Group 2, this Cut is neither here nor there for me. Living in Washington DC area the KE/DL JV made my Asia options much better.

Delta is the most profitable of US3 for several reasons, and I think route discipline is one of these reasons. If a route is not working, move on; keeping a route for legacy or prestige is a sure way to lose money.

MANY things have changed in the Asia market since the Northwest days, nostalgia is powerful, but those days are not coming back.

DL is the most profitable because they have the most profitable and most dominated domestic hubs which they have been really good at monetizing. There are plenty of markets out of JFK/LAX/SEA/BOS where they loose money.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:48 pm

Well that's great. But Delta doesnt have a network that connects well to HKG. At the end of the day it's all about the network, and it doesnt work for Delta. Had it worked for Delta, they'd still be there.

tphuang wrote:
jasoncrh wrote:
Is this notion of HKG having the highest % of premium passengers an actual fact or just airliners.net lore? Where does this information come from?

Delta is not in the markets that generate the premium traffic anyway. Yes they're in New York, but Cathay has 3-4 flights from JFK and 1 from EWR and gets the traffic.

This notion of "it's so premium how can Delta not make it work" really isnt grounded in any fact, just a myth on this site.

Kashmon wrote:

considering HKG has the highest % of premium passengers and is a mega transit point for passengers and cargo, it is shocking that DL can't sustain flights.


According to Oneworld presentation. Lon/tokyo/nyc/hk/singapore are the five largest worldwide premium markets (in that particular order). Interesting enough, the next 2 are Paris and Seoul. Not a myth. HKG just happens to be very dominated by CX.

Keith2004 wrote:

As a member of Group 2, this Cut is neither here nor there for me. Living in Washington DC area the KE/DL JV made my Asia options much better.

Delta is the most profitable of US3 for several reasons, and I think route discipline is one of these reasons. If a route is not working, move on; keeping a route for legacy or prestige is a sure way to lose money.

MANY things have changed in the Asia market since the Northwest days, nostalgia is powerful, but those days are not coming back.

DL is the most profitable because they have the most profitable and most dominated domestic hubs which they have been really good at monetizing. There are plenty of markets out of JFK/LAX/SEA/BOS where they loose money.
 
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N717TW
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:53 pm

flybynight wrote:
Oh, AS will pick up the route!! :)

Would an LAX-based flight make more sense for DL perhaps?

SEA, though, is a strong business market and one of the most rapidly growing large cities in North America. Air Canada seems to do well from Vancouver, which is a smaller city (of course there are very strong ties between Hong Kong and Van)


It was a million years ago in a totally different era, but DL did fly LAX-HKG before and struggled. It would be even harder now with CX being a much stronger player in the market never mind AA's presence. If they couldn't make SEA work where they had the market to themselves and reasonable feed, LAX will be harder. The better play, if they agree with me (as if my opinion matters) that flying to HKG on their own maters, they should route a flight that will require two frames anyways through ICN (if 5th freedom is indeed allowed) on a route they will eventually want to make nonstop (either SEA or DTW) as a SEA-ICN-HKG or whatever to ICN then to HKG. That way they can sell a single through flight, grow the route and still have a presence in a key global market.

But their decision to pull out -- despite the line about "hard decision" in the press release -- tells me that they don't feel its very important to actually fly their on their own. Its a connected dot on the route map, like VIE or IST or BOM and just as those cities are connected by a JV partner, now this is too. Yup, its now a double connection city from all but 12 ICN gateways, but the reality is that DL probably wasn't that successful in those markets anyways.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
According to Oneworld presentation. Lon/tokyo/nyc/hk/singapore are the five largest worldwide premium markets (in that particular order). Interesting enough, the next 2 are Paris and Seoul. Not a myth. HKG just happens to be very dominated by CX.


You're referring to this, correct?
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... -airlines/

On one hand, yes, HKG is still a very premium market. On the other hand, how much of those premium traffic can DL really capture? Between CX/AA and UA (or even SQ), there are just not a ton of spaces left for premium US-bound traffic on DL to/from HKG.

P.S. The whole "Premium Market" traffic is how OW managed to stick around against the much larger *A or even ST anyway. The fact that CX still has pretty much all the corporate traffic is how they will pull out of their current funk, even with competitors like HX getting stronger.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osakab

Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:16 pm

LAXintl wrote:
questions wrote:


Was the profitability always questionable?


Yes. According to the book Glory Lost and Found which is a behind the scenes about Delta and its BK, the NWA Pacific network lost money for 8-years running.

NWA had lost its once Pacific dominance being left too reliant on lower yield consolidator traffic flying oversized inefficient aircraft. In other words aircraft too large generating poor revenue and having high-cost base.

I am not sure DL has even quite managed to 'right the ship' so to speak in the region, but the KE JV atleast gives them the best chance to align the stars.


So would a fleet of 8s (787 or 330s) meeting in Narita meeting a new fleet of MAXes or neos be a money maker, or has P2P done in that business case. It was impressive how NWA had about a dozen planes from the US meeting about a dozen planes covering SE Asia. And Narita managed to make it a stress free transition despite buses, transversing a maze of cargo, hidden stairways and voila! You were almost aboard the next flight.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Ezra
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:28 pm

This has been discussed before in various threads, but now that DL’s strategy for Asia flights has become clearer — namely, they’ll serve Japan, PRC, and Korea, and connect elsewhere via ICN — it’s worth bringing up again the question of if/how DL/KE plan to grow their US gateways to ICN to expand 1-stop coverage to more of the US. What unserved cities are likely to see new service to Korea? Off the top of my head I’d submit the following population centers for consideration: PDX, SJC, ONT, SAN, PHX, DEN, SLC, BOS, EWR, PHL, RDU, CLT, MCO, MIA. Are any of these viable for service under the JV? Have I missed other obvious candidates?
 
SESGDL
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:31 pm

It's unfortunate that DL will no longer serve HKG with its own metal but it's not as if DL will not still be *technically* serving the market. This is no different from any other JV in which a partner carries most of the weight out of their respective strongholds. In this case, DL's weakness in HKG is made right through KE's strength and connectivity at ICN. Also, let's not pretend that HKG was ever a strong market for DL/NW. NW tried and failed on both MSP and SEA to HKG, while DL has tried and failed on LAX-HKG, NRT-HKG and DTW-HKG. For many years NW's HKG service was limited to a single daily flight from NRT. The market is simply too loyal to CX, which also benefits AA; and UA's obvious strength in the market is due to much in part to their world class network and DL simply can't compete with that.

Another thing that's not being considered is that DL has a limited number of widebody aircraft, especially those capable of longhaul flying and DL is also much more risk averse when it comes to routes and profitability. There were obviously better opportunities for DL to make money with the limited number of aircraft that they have at the moment (MSP-ICN and SEA-KIX). I trust DL's judgment, DL isn't the most consistently profitable (in recent years) airline in the world by accident.

Jeremy
Last edited by SESGDL on Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osakab

Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:33 pm

This "worked" for Northwest when there were not airplanes that could profitably fly from the US nonstop to HKG/PEK/PVG/SIN/MNL/TPE. Now there are - the whole reason for the NRT hub has gone away.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
questions wrote:


Was the profitability always questionable?


Yes. According to the book Glory Lost and Found which is a behind the scenes about Delta and its BK, the NWA Pacific network lost money for 8-years running.

NWA had lost its once Pacific dominance being left too reliant on lower yield consolidator traffic flying oversized inefficient aircraft. In other words aircraft too large generating poor revenue and having high-cost base.

I am not sure DL has even quite managed to 'right the ship' so to speak in the region, but the KE JV atleast gives them the best chance to align the stars.


So would a fleet of 8s (787 or 330s) meeting in Narita meeting a new fleet of MAXes or neos be a money maker, or has P2P done in that business case. It was impressive how NWA had about a dozen planes from the US meeting about a dozen planes covering SE Asia. And Narita managed to make it a stress free transition despite buses, transversing a maze of cargo, hidden stairways and voila! You were almost aboard the next flight.
 
SESGDL
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:45 pm

Ezra wrote:
This has been discussed before in various threads, but now that DL’s strategy for Asia flights has become clearer — namely, they’ll serve Japan, PRC, and Korea, and connect elsewhere via ICN — it’s worth bringing up again the question of if/how DL/KE plan to grow their US gateways to ICN to expand 1-stop coverage to more of the US. What unserved cities are likely to see new service to Korea? Off the top of my head I’d submit the following population centers for consideration: PDX, SJC, ONT, SAN, PHX, DEN, SLC, BOS, EWR, PHL, RDU, CLT, MCO, MIA. Are any of these viable for service under the JV? Have I missed other obvious candidates?


The only markets of those listed I can see getting service to ICN are, in order of likelihood: BOS, SAN, SJC, PDX, EWR and MIA. ICN is already extremely well connected to most large NA markets. For DL, adding MSP-ICN really gives them all they need to offer a breadth of connectivity. The network from ICN to North America is truly impressive:

ATL, ORD, DFW, DTW, HNL, LAS, LAX, MSP, JFK, SFO, SEA, YYZ, YVR, IAD.

To me, BOS is the obvious hole and something I expect to happen sooner rather than later.

Jeremy
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:57 pm

Ezra wrote:
This has been discussed before in various threads, but now that DL’s strategy for Asia flights has become clearer — namely, they’ll serve Japan, PRC, and Korea, and connect elsewhere via ICN — it’s worth bringing up again the question of if/how DL/KE plan to grow their US gateways to ICN to expand 1-stop coverage to more of the US. What unserved cities are likely to see new service to Korea? Off the top of my head I’d submit the following population centers for consideration: PDX, SJC, ONT, SAN, PHX, DEN, SLC, BOS, EWR, PHL, RDU, CLT, MCO, MIA. Are any of these viable for service under the JV? Have I missed other obvious candidates?


No AUS? :stirthepot: :stirthepot:

BOS is the most likely of the bunch IMO, it has the business demand and the population to support the flight. PDX is also likely, although that would most likely mean the end of PDX-NRT.

Somebody may also restart IAH also. OZ doesn't really have the plane to do so right now, though (They would once more A359 comes in), and UA never really bother with ICN.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:09 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
UA never really bother with ICN.


Off topic but, I've never understood why UA doesn't do so....
TPE gets more love than ICN does, ICN didn't get a 77W.
UA and KE could have handily locked down the SFO, IAD and ORD if they wanted to but KE is having fun in UA turf.

Anyway rant over.
 
B-HOP
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:10 pm

Real shame they pulled out from Hong Kong, they have been here since the 60's but out of the US3, they are the weakest in Hong Kong, they did made some effort marketing SEA on buses and on trams but Seattle just don't have enough O&D to support the flight. UA already covers most cities with HK expats, NY/SF and CX are really strong transpac, leaving very little room for DL. Beside A332 varries much less cargo and it struggles to reach Hong Kong in winter months, we look forward to have them back but hopes were not high
Live life to max!!!
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:16 pm

CX flights don’t help DL FFs (and especially elites). Also flying KE may not be everyone’s cup of tea. I know a lot of OW JFk pax who try and avoid BA (god knows how they succeed when going to EU). I think HKG-LAX is the most logical especially since DL has the LAX-PVG flight. I feel that DL is much stronger in LA (FF base wise) than 10 years ago. They get the premium transcon crowd, plus have AM for Mexico flights, plus have been successful in LA with VS’ popularity, and expanded domestic network there and good EU/Africa/ME/India connections through AF/KL. LAX-HKG would also allow JFK and I think ATL elites that want Delta metal to get D1 one stop to HK. I get why HK should get cut, but it’s HKG. Look in the end, most poeple didn’t see SEA as a logical connecting point (the route maps might say it’s shorter than LA/SF, but those are the most logical gateways for many - right or wrong). Net net at least we have a proper KL partnership. Let’s hope DL get the integration with KE and 9W to the levels they have with KL/AF/VS and even GOL - meaning seat selection, priority boarding, GUCs etc etc.
 
travelin man
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:19 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Ezra wrote:
This has been discussed before in various threads, but now that DL’s strategy for Asia flights has become clearer — namely, they’ll serve Japan, PRC, and Korea, and connect elsewhere via ICN — it’s worth bringing up again the question of if/how DL/KE plan to grow their US gateways to ICN to expand 1-stop coverage to more of the US. What unserved cities are likely to see new service to Korea? Off the top of my head I’d submit the following population centers for consideration: PDX, SJC, ONT, SAN, PHX, DEN, SLC, BOS, EWR, PHL, RDU, CLT, MCO, MIA. Are any of these viable for service under the JV? Have I missed other obvious candidates?


The only markets of those listed I can see getting service to ICN are, in order of likelihood: BOS, SAN, SJC, PDX, EWR and MIA. ICN is already extremely well connected to most large NA markets. For DL, adding MSP-ICN really gives them all they need to offer a breadth of connectivity. The network from ICN to North America is truly impressive:

ATL, ORD, DFW, DTW, HNL, LAS, LAX, MSP, JFK, SFO, SEA, YYZ, YVR, IAD.

To me, BOS is the obvious hole and something I expect to happen sooner rather than later.

Jeremy


Agree with all except MIA. ATL lies directly on the MIA-ICN route on the great circle map, and it doesn't seem there is enough O&D out of MIA to justify non-stop service. I could see DEN before MIA.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:26 pm

travelin man wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Ezra wrote:
This has been discussed before in various threads, but now that DL’s strategy for Asia flights has become clearer — namely, they’ll serve Japan, PRC, and Korea, and connect elsewhere via ICN — it’s worth bringing up again the question of if/how DL/KE plan to grow their US gateways to ICN to expand 1-stop coverage to more of the US. What unserved cities are likely to see new service to Korea? Off the top of my head I’d submit the following population centers for consideration: PDX, SJC, ONT, SAN, PHX, DEN, SLC, BOS, EWR, PHL, RDU, CLT, MCO, MIA. Are any of these viable for service under the JV? Have I missed other obvious candidates?


The only markets of those listed I can see getting service to ICN are, in order of likelihood: BOS, SAN, SJC, PDX, EWR and MIA. ICN is already extremely well connected to most large NA markets. For DL, adding MSP-ICN really gives them all they need to offer a breadth of connectivity. The network from ICN to North America is truly impressive:

ATL, ORD, DFW, DTW, HNL, LAS, LAX, MSP, JFK, SFO, SEA, YYZ, YVR, IAD.

To me, BOS is the obvious hole and something I expect to happen sooner rather than later.

Jeremy


Agree with all except MIA. ATL lies directly on the MIA-ICN route on the great circle map, and it doesn't seem there is enough O&D out of MIA to justify non-stop service. I could see DEN before MIA.


I still wonder if they’ll try SLC. DL doesn’t have the right airplane but a KE 787 might work. I don’t know what the market is to Asia, but SLC supports as many as four flights to Europe on some days.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:26 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Ezra wrote:
This has been discussed before in various threads, but now that DL’s strategy for Asia flights has become clearer — namely, they’ll serve Japan, PRC, and Korea, and connect elsewhere via ICN — it’s worth bringing up again the question of if/how DL/KE plan to grow their US gateways to ICN to expand 1-stop coverage to more of the US. What unserved cities are likely to see new service to Korea? Off the top of my head I’d submit the following population centers for consideration: PDX, SJC, ONT, SAN, PHX, DEN, SLC, BOS, EWR, PHL, RDU, CLT, MCO, MIA. Are any of these viable for service under the JV? Have I missed other obvious candidates?


No AUS? :stirthepot: :stirthepot:

BOS is the most likely of the bunch IMO, it has the business demand and the population to support the flight. PDX is also likely, although that would most likely mean the end of PDX-NRT.

Somebody may also restart IAH also. OZ doesn't really have the plane to do so right now, though (They would once more A359 comes in), and UA never really bother with ICN.



I suspect it is only a matter of time before we see BOS-ICN. PDX-ICN wouldn't surprise me either. To me, those are the tier 1 additions.

Not saying a tier 2 will happen, but if it did I would expect the most likely additions to be additional frequencies to LAX and DTW, and maybe a SLC add. But even those are a stretch. Given how many destinations are served already by ICN, I can't see anything beyond those additions I listed in the short term.
 
ManekS
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:28 pm

Anyone have the PDEW O&D from SEA to major Asian cities (TYO/PVG/PEK/ICN/HKG/SIN/BKK/TPE)?
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:36 pm

IAH-ICN wasn't bad in theory but the market is so Star Alliance based, that only OZ could really operate it with a hope and prayer. All KE was getting were low fares to Vietnam, the Philippines, and China. Just up the road at DFW, there is a lot more O&D to and from Korea vs. IAH so it makes a lot more sense as to why AA and KE can co-exist.

What this move says to me is simple: we live in times where alliance ties make all the difference in the world. AA's DFW-HKG is incredibly successful despite the fact operating costs would be higher from DFW as opposed to SEA. AA/CX have the bond necessary to keep it going strong.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
bkflyguy
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:33 pm

I wonder if the arrival of the A339 would allow this route to work? Although I think they have to order the larger gross weight version to get the necessary range. Part of the issue as I understand it was that the 777 was too large and the A332 was right at the end of its range and would have to sometimes be payload optimized. But maybe not. Time will tell.
 
YVRing
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:57 pm

I wonder if competition from YVR has an impact on this. There are 4-5 daily flights from YVR to HGK direct (three different carriers) plus numerous 1-stop options with major Chinese/Japanese/Korean airlines. YVR is only an easy two hour drive away.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:12 pm

YVRing wrote:
I wonder if competition from YVR has an impact on this. There are 4-5 daily flights from YVR to HGK direct (three different carriers) plus numerous 1-stop options with major Chinese/Japanese/Korean airlines. YVR is only an easy two hour drive away.


Sure, because people in SEA would much rather drive 2-4 hours in traffic (not an easy 2), deal with a busy border crossing, and pay to park rather than fly out of the major international airport close to their home.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:49 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
YVRing wrote:
I wonder if competition from YVR has an impact on this. There are 4-5 daily flights from YVR to HGK direct (three different carriers) plus numerous 1-stop options with major Chinese/Japanese/Korean airlines. YVR is only an easy two hour drive away.


Sure, because people in SEA would much rather drive 2-4 hours in traffic (not an easy 2), deal with a busy border crossing, and pay to park rather than fly out of the major international airport close to their home.


There are people that fly SEA-YVR-HKG, but that's where the "competition" ends. There are also not exactly a wide range of transborder connection at YVR either, compare to SEA.

Any 1-stop options from YVR is even more of a joke - you can do 1-stop from SEA as-is VERY easily (beside YVR, there is ICN on OZ/KE, NRT on NH, or even TPE on BR, and if you feel like it, PEK on HU/HX).

At the end - DL not being able to make SEA-HKG work is not even anything new. Even way back in 2016 they shifted frequencies from SEA-HKG to SEA-NRT-HKG b/c they can't make the non-stop work well. The problems DL faced never change - it simply doesn't have the loyalty that CX/AA enjoyed ex-HKG, while they don't have the hub (SFO/ORD/EWR) that UA enjoyed (i.e. much higher O&D). The only other possibility that DL could have tried at HKG is some sort of cooperation with HX - but HX's network is not all that great, either (Most of HX's capacity are to Japan and mainland China, neither of which helps DL all that much as they already have their own NRT flight for Japan, and MU for mainland China, and I didn't even take into account of the DL-KE JV).

Like I've said (and many other posters said), somebody else (HX/CX) is probably going to jumped onto the SEA-HKG. CX has the codeshare with AS, and a theoretical HX-DL codeshare (assuming HX starts HKG-SEA) would helps HX in US, providing it connection beyond its existing LAX flight and a theoretical SEA flight.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
Flighty
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:31 pm

SEA-HKG is one of those routes that provokes a lot of a.net sentiment but it's not a business opportunity for Delta Air Lines. Flying to places like Minot or Winnipeg, or Charleston, these are actual business opportunities where actual cold, hard cash is made. HKG, I firmly believe, was not in the top 1,000 Delta flights ordered by P&L. A lot of glamor, and intrigue, but it just doesn't have "importance" for Delta. Delta makes too much money to be able to consider speculative, long time loser markets indefinitely.
 
PHLCVGAMTK
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:57 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
travelin man wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

The only markets of those listed I can see getting service to ICN are, in order of likelihood: BOS, SAN, SJC, PDX, EWR and MIA. ICN is already extremely well connected to most large NA markets. For DL, adding MSP-ICN really gives them all they need to offer a breadth of connectivity. The network from ICN to North America is truly impressive:

ATL, ORD, DFW, DTW, HNL, LAS, LAX, MSP, JFK, SFO, SEA, YYZ, YVR, IAD.

To me, BOS is the obvious hole and something I expect to happen sooner rather than later.

Jeremy


Agree with all except MIA. ATL lies directly on the MIA-ICN route on the great circle map, and it doesn't seem there is enough O&D out of MIA to justify non-stop service. I could see DEN before MIA.


I still wonder if they’ll try SLC. DL doesn’t have the right airplane but a KE 787 might work. I don’t know what the market is to Asia, but SLC supports as many as four flights to Europe on some days.


SLC makes too much sense, since it's still DL's best connecting hub in the West; we'll probably see that as a reliever for SEA-ICN and LAX-ICN, when those get too tight. Remember there are Western mid-markets that are spokes for Skyteam, including DEN and PHX.

In the East, I don't know if adding BOS-ICN and pressuring JL's BOS-NRT is a better option than adding frequencies to DTW-ICN and MSP-ICN, but I could believe that. Adding EWR might help gain market share in New York, but so could densifying KE's double-daily A380s into JFK.

Overall, if the KE JV is going to be something DL relies on as much for Asia as it is signalling, then the 12-14 nonstop connections to ICN are going to have to grow to something more like the 25-30 nonstop connections to CDG and AMS that feed the AF/KL JV. 20 might be the right number. And if DL/KE can't find that many US destinations that can fill a plane, and I doubt that they can, they're going to have to grind high frequencies out of their TPAC hub gateways. I don't envy their planners.
 
airzona11
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:02 pm

TransWorldOne wrote:
With a cut like this you've got to wonder: what keeps DL operating a route like LAX-SYD? Seems like it would be easier and much more profitable to hand the flying off to JV partner VA, no?


If that were true they would cut it. That is a lot of time to tie up the aircraft. But DL has been on this route much longer and daily. And it is LAX vs SEA (much more O/D potential).
 
airzona11
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:03 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
YVRing wrote:
I wonder if competition from YVR has an impact on this. There are 4-5 daily flights from YVR to HGK direct (three different carriers) plus numerous 1-stop options with major Chinese/Japanese/Korean airlines. YVR is only an easy two hour drive away.


Sure, because people in SEA would much rather drive 2-4 hours in traffic (not an easy 2), deal with a busy border crossing, and pay to park rather than fly out of the major international airport close to their home.


They can fly to YVR, ICN, NRT, amount all the US routes to easily connect.
 
questions
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:30 pm

Flighty wrote:
SEA-HKG is one of those routes that provokes a lot of a.net sentiment but it's not a business opportunity for Delta Air Lines. Flying to places like Minot or Winnipeg, or Charleston, these are actual business opportunities where actual cold, hard cash is made. HKG, I firmly believe, was not in the top 1,000 Delta flights ordered by P&L. A lot of glamor, and intrigue, but it just doesn't have "importance" for Delta. Delta makes too much money to be able to consider speculative, long time loser markets indefinitely.


I think some of the reaction is that this is less about HKG and more about DL’s inability to penetrate and grow market share to Asia. UA has. AA seems to be in a similar situation as DL.
 
questions
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:33 pm

Why was DL late to the game in establishing SkyTeam in Asia and therefore stuck with leftover, third rate partners?
 
kavok
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:53 pm

questions wrote:
Why was DL late to the game in establishing SkyTeam in Asia and therefore stuck with leftover, third rate partners?


I would hardly call KE third rate. They were also a founding member of SkyTeam, so not exactly late to the game either.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:53 pm

Double post, please delete
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:18 am

SUNCTRY738 wrote:
Wouldn't the originally ordered 788's be having RR engine issues now if DL had not canceled that order?


No, they wouldn't have been delivered yet. DL deferred to 2020 in connection with the merger. They would have been Trent TEN equipped, but it's Trent 1000 Package C and B engines that are having the issues.

If they had kept the original NW order timing, then maybe, as they would have had Package B engines. But keeping that timing wouldn't have made any sense when DL had a ton of 763s and 764s that were midlife at the time. The original deferral was to start getting 788s on property as the 763s were leaving. Then they ordered HGW A330s and A330neos for that job instead, aircraft that are a bit short-legged for SEA-HKG.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:23 am

questions wrote:
Flighty wrote:
SEA-HKG is one of those routes that provokes a lot of a.net sentiment but it's not a business opportunity for Delta Air Lines. Flying to places like Minot or Winnipeg, or Charleston, these are actual business opportunities where actual cold, hard cash is made. HKG, I firmly believe, was not in the top 1,000 Delta flights ordered by P&L. A lot of glamor, and intrigue, but it just doesn't have "importance" for Delta. Delta makes too much money to be able to consider speculative, long time loser markets indefinitely.


I think some of the reaction is that this is less about HKG and more about DL’s inability to penetrate and grow market share to Asia. UA has. AA seems to be in a similar situation as DL.


How much UA has really grow in (east) Asia recently? Much like DL, UA cut all their intra-Asia flights (i.e. HKG-SGN/HKG-SIN), have only a grand total of 1 new destinations that they still operated to/from (CTU, since HGH was axed along with XIY), and much like DL, shifted traffic to its partner in the region (NH). All these with UA having arguably the best TPAC hub in USA.

questions wrote:
Why was DL late to the game in establishing SkyTeam in Asia and therefore stuck with leftover, third rate partners?


Huh? KE is a founding member, CZ is the first Chinese airlines to join any alliances (They beat out CA to *A by about a month). Skyteam also has MU, with its hub in the most lucrative market in mainland China. CZ may not have the fanciness of PEK/PVG hub, but it's still the largest carrier in mainland China by pretty much all metrics (with MU being a close second).

And it's not like DL didn't try harder, either. Back when JL went bankrupt, DL fought VERY hard to try to get JL to switch side from OW to Skyteam, although JL eventually opted against doing so. DL then tried to make inroads into Skymark during their bankruptcy, but again, failed.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
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adambrau
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:08 am

questions wrote:
Why was DL late to the game in establishing SkyTeam in Asia and therefore stuck with leftover, third rate partners?


In terms of own metal, AA was the latest of the US3 to Asia.

When Delta merged with NW it was unfortunately around the time the NRT hub was starting to get overflown, and the cost of having a large hub operation in NRT was uncompetitive. UA, due to a better relationship with NH, was able to get it's JV set up while DL took a good couple of years more to do the same with KE at ICN (due to bad DL/KE relations, supposedly).

So while DL is dropping HKG for various reasons, they did suffer a bit of bad luck over the years and it does't prove a lack of will to make it work.

KE is a much better airline than it was 20 years ago, although apart from them I haven't flown any other Asian SkyTeam partners so my opinion is based on my perception alone. But I think Star Alliance and Oneworld bagged the best airline partners in the Asia Pacific region early on while DL had higher hopes for it's NRT operation?
France is in the Air
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:32 am

Maybe it's luck, but AA clearly got the best partners in TPAC with the dominant airline in HK and Australia, the largest airline in Japan. The quality of those partners make up for lack of quantity. Star Alliance has both good quantity and quality. Skyteam has quantity, but aside from KE, there isn't a power house when it comes to premium travel. And even KE has to share some of that Korean market with OZ. Chinese carriers are large, but people in company avoid CZ and MU like plague when they go to Asia. Even I don't fly them. There is a reason why they consistently have the far and away cheapest j fares.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:38 am

I predict that an Asian airline will announce new service to SEA by the end of this year.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Delta to cut Seattle-Hong Kong, announces Seattle-Osaka

Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:46 am

YVRing wrote:
I wonder if competition from YVR has an impact on this. There are 4-5 daily flights from YVR to HGK direct (three different carriers) plus numerous 1-stop options with major Chinese/Japanese/Korean airlines. YVR is only an easy two hour drive away.


An easy two hour drive? Maybe if you speed at 3:00 in the morning...I don't think I've ever done Seattle-Vancouver in under 3.5 hours, and those were trips with short border waits. My most memorable trip was Vancouver-Bellingham in twelve hours during the snowstorm of 2006. Bellingham-Seattle the next day took about as long.

In any case, I don't think a lot of pax ex-SEA are looking at YVR as an option to Hong Kong or Asia in general. If nothing else, the fares out of YVR are routinely higher.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.

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