SocalApproach
Posts: 267
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:08 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:37 pm

Trk1 wrote:
This airline will never fly


Can you look into your crystal ball and tell us when this pandemic will be over as well?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 107
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:02 am

Trk1 wrote:
This airline will never fly

Yeah. It will. And this pandemic is actually helping it.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1684
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:56 am

First aircraft is in induction in Brazil and will be delivered in next several weeks. Breeze will seek charter flying until the market comes to. Any comments that Breeze is some fly-by-night operation are ill informed. Maybe send those comments to the ex Allegiant/United guy who bought Xtra Airways and is stuck with 737-800's.
 
Blerg
Posts: 3221
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:06 am

Is there really demand for charter flights right now? I mean games have been suspended, conferences probably as well... what kind of charter flights are they looking at?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 107
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:25 am

Blerg wrote:
Is there really demand for charter flights right now? I mean games have been suspended, conferences probably as well... what kind of charter flights are they looking at?

Fall sports.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8338
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:32 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:

If you want to get a better idea of who makes the money when it comes to public versus private investments, look at the ~$10M per aircraft writedown Azul took on the E195s before leasing them to Breeze and others. Azul's shareholders (of which DN is <10%) take 100% of that loss while Breeze gets the benefit.

That “writedown“ isn’t a loss. It’s an accounting number, probably similar to the $319m impairment jetblue took when they announced the early retirement of the E190s (though I haven’t read any details of the Azul arrangements, just speculating based on what little I have read). For B6, it showed as a one time loss, but nobody actually lost that money. I don’t think Azul shareholders are losing any money with the E195 sales/subleases...they are gaining a more fuel efficient, higher profit airplane and writing down the earlier removal of capital assets from their books than previously planned/guided. It’s accounting, not loss of actual money.


I think you need to brush up on your accounting. While it is a non-cash item (they are not writing a cheque for the $750M) it absolutely reflects an economic loss for the shareholders.


This writedown doesn’t transfer to Breeze in anyway, not positively not negatively.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1457
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:14 pm

It is shaping up to be a perfect time to start up, dirt cheap fuel, great deal on planes, major competition above and below you model in disarray, a new found labor pool and nearly free money to loaned .
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10162
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:15 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
...and nearly free money to loaned .

Not anymore, at least for the aviation industry.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1457
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:55 pm

Polot wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
...and nearly free money to loaned .

Not anymore, at least for the aviation industry.


They aren't saddled with existing debt, quite a difference than the big 3.
 
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Coronado990
Posts: 1461
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2003 2:12 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:48 pm

Actually, the time might be right for a p2p type airline. Avoiding an unnecessary crowded hub might be an advantage for Breeze since it's nice to know that everyone on board is either from your city or the city to which you are going. Keeps things nice and simple.
We're up.
 
wrongwayup
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:23 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:52 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
It is shaping up to be a perfect time to start up, dirt cheap fuel, great deal on planes, major competition above and below you model in disarray, a new found labor pool and nearly free money to loaned .


Except for the whole "no one wants to fly" thing.
 
enplaned
Posts: 4
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:49 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:47 pm

Neeleman at this moment has one specific issue he'll need to fix. In Breeze's Feb 7 DOT filing, Neeleman had to show financial coverage of approximately $40mm, which he did by showing that he owned shares in Azul that, as of Feb 6, were worth $81mm - so at the time he was covered 2:1 relative to his requirement. Since then, Azul shares have declined by more than 75%, which, for the moment, leaves Neeleman insufficiently covered relative to his DOT obligation. That is a specific issue he needs to fix before Breeze can fly. He may have other financial resources he can bring to bear relative to Breeze, but he may also want to use those resources to shore up his existing carriers, Azul and TAP.
 
altairF28
Posts: 100
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:41 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:39 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
It is shaping up to be a perfect time to start up, dirt cheap fuel, great deal on planes, major competition above and below you model in disarray, a new found labor pool and nearly free money to loaned .


Except for the whole "no one wants to fly" thing.

It's not like the first flight is scheduled for tomorrow. In six months to a year people will likely want to fly again. I was going to cite most of the same reasons WaywardMemphian gave and I'll add one more: the newfound labor pool will be desperate for employment and therefore willing to work for peanuts. (Well maybe more "accepting to" then "willing to" but you get the idea)
A detour is a choice between two tasks, each with its own pros and cons
 
pmanni1
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:19 pm

altairF28 wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
It is shaping up to be a perfect time to start up, dirt cheap fuel, great deal on planes, major competition above and below you model in disarray, a new found labor pool and nearly free money to loaned .


Except for the whole "no one wants to fly" thing.

It's not like the first flight is scheduled for tomorrow. In six months to a year people will likely want to fly again. I was going to cite most of the same reasons WaywardMemphian gave and I'll add one more: the newfound labor pool will be desperate for employment and therefore willing to work for peanuts. (Well maybe more "accepting to" then "willing to" but you get the idea)

Too many people thinking in a few months this will all be over and everything will be just fine. People aren't thinking about how this could put us in a deep recession with a shrinking economy high unemployment and there won't be a huge demand to fly. Especially leisure travelers.
 
groupguy
Posts: 21
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:52 am

pmanni1 wrote:
altairF28 wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:

Except for the whole "no one wants to fly" thing.

It's not like the first flight is scheduled for tomorrow. In six months to a year people will likely want to fly again. I was going to cite most of the same reasons WaywardMemphian gave and I'll add one more: the newfound labor pool will be desperate for employment and therefore willing to work for peanuts. (Well maybe more "accepting to" then "willing to" but you get the idea)

Too many people thinking in a few months this will all be over and everything will be just fine. People aren't thinking about how this could put us in a deep recession with a shrinking economy high unemployment and there won't be a huge demand to fly. Especially leisure travelers.
there are many business people who hate big airports & hate going through hubs, because they've been there & been delayed at hubs.

Who else in USA will have the A220 ? Delta & Jetblue ?

+ the ejets he's getting from Azul seem to be costing peanuts, so it's going to be interesting.

If things don't pick up in a few months, then maybe Neeleman will delay launch date of Breeze.
 
tphuang
Posts: 4156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:54 am

I would generally agree that it's much better to start a new airline when industry is hurting and everyone is recovering and shrinking vs when everyone is expanding.
 
VS11
Posts: 1538
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
I would generally agree that it's much better to start a new airline when industry is hurting and everyone is recovering and shrinking vs when everyone is expanding.


There will be better deals from all sorts of suppliers, providers, airports, talent pools, banks, etc. Competitors will have much less cash to deploy against Breeze. But they may have to delay the launch by 6 months to a year when hopefully a vaccine will be closer and the public will feel more comfortable flying.
 
TWA902fly
Posts: 3096
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 1999 5:47 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:40 pm

I noticed on their website that it used to say they are taking off in "late 2020", now it says "early 2021". That's a deliberate change someone made in the past couple weeks. What exactly it means timeline-wise is anyone's guess.

I could see it being a decent time to start even if the economy is in a recession. There will still be some demand. And there's no reason Breeze cannot fill that demand, especially with the larger airlines hurting and downsizing. That alone will probably open up many routes with "some demand" that Breeze could serve with their model. I still have hope for this airline.

'902
life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
 
catiii
Posts: 3313
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:37 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
It is shaping up to be a perfect time to start up, dirt cheap fuel, great deal on planes, major competition above and below you model in disarray, a new found labor pool and nearly free money to loaned .


If airlines had access to "nearly free money to be loaned" then they wouldn't have had to go to Congress for $50B in loans/loan guarantees.

The private lending marketplace doesn't exist right now for airlines. For the airlines that closed liquidity vehicles in the past month, the same market doesn't exist today.
 
catiii
Posts: 3313
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:38 pm

groupguy wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
altairF28 wrote:
It's not like the first flight is scheduled for tomorrow. In six months to a year people will likely want to fly again. I was going to cite most of the same reasons WaywardMemphian gave and I'll add one more: the newfound labor pool will be desperate for employment and therefore willing to work for peanuts. (Well maybe more "accepting to" then "willing to" but you get the idea)

Too many people thinking in a few months this will all be over and everything will be just fine. People aren't thinking about how this could put us in a deep recession with a shrinking economy high unemployment and there won't be a huge demand to fly. Especially leisure travelers.
there are many business people who hate big airports & hate going through hubs, because they've been there & been delayed at hubs.

Who else in USA will have the A220 ? Delta & Jetblue ?

+ the ejets he's getting from Azul seem to be costing peanuts, so it's going to be interesting.

If things don't pick up in a few months, then maybe Neeleman will delay launch date of Breeze.


He may also have caught a break here on pilots. I always wondered where he was going to find pilots given how hot the pilot market was in the US. Now he may have a great pool with the freeze on hiring.
 
Trk1
Posts: 110
Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:37 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:44 pm

I still maintain it will never fly.
 
TheLunchbox
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:47 pm

Some say this is a bad time to start an airline.. I say terrific. Pilots, planes, cheap fuel, resurgence of air travel as you're starting up later this year, majors will still be reeling from the cutbacks to many markets and a lot of the flying public have angst towards the majors. Nope, i'm not an expert but my $.02.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12920
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:26 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Is there really demand for charter flights right now?

Fall sports.

...which may not even take place.


WaywardMemphian wrote:
They aren't saddled with existing debt, quite a difference than the big 3.

Nor market presence, for that matter. Give & take.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
argentinevol98
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:40 pm

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:33 pm

Cheap fuel and cheap pilots are still "expensive" when your planes are empty. That's the real concern here. The majors are in all disarray but they are all in disarray for the same reason every private sector airline (and many public sector ones) on Earth is as well. This is something that affects everyone in the industry. No matter how established or how new and no matter how small and how large.

I also see a lot of the typical strategies a start-up has as being deeply damaged by the virus. Namely competitive pricing. It is fairly well known that most airlines when beginning operations tend to offer competitive fares to attract new customers and build market share. Thing is, I don't think that strategy will work right now. Major airlines are already offering ridiculous fares in many sectors across the country. $50RTs are now uncommon right now. F9 offered me a $30RT MIA-PHL trip with a right to a no charge cancellation included. How do you be even more competitive than that? You can't even really make up for it in service seen as how for sanitary reasons you can't even give your F passengers proper meals right now. Everything has to be pre-packaged. So where's your way in right now?

I still see Breeze as being a successful proposition and have a good feeling about it as a start-up and I absolutely do believe that they will take advantage of the low oil prices and the pilot hiring freeze to good effect but I would be shocked if they don't delay EIS. If they enter service in this environment they will bleed a too much money and spook future investors. Getting loans and cash injections is going to hard in this current situation of airline bailouts. Interests rates are dirt-low but that doesn't guarantee an airline will get approved. I'd wager that it will be difficult for them to do so. Investors are going to weary as well of putting money into an airline venture. Neeleman is a smart guy and I see him playing it safe here.
"He sospechado alguna vez que la única cosa sin misterio es la felicidad, porque se justifica por sí sola"-Jorge Luis Borges
 
groupguy
Posts: 21
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:45 am

catiii wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
It is shaping up to be a perfect time to start up, dirt cheap fuel, great deal on planes, major competition above and below you model in disarray, a new found labor pool and nearly free money to loaned .


If airlines had access to "nearly free money to be loaned" then they wouldn't have had to go to Congress for $50B in loans/loan guarantees.

The private lending marketplace doesn't exist right now for airlines. For the airlines that closed liquidity vehicles in the past month, the same market doesn't exist today.
Qantas just got a AUD$1.05 billion line of credit (about USD$600 million, depending on what time of day you look at exchange rate - it's moved from low of 55 cents a few days ago back to 60 cents & down to 59 cents right now). Apparently they put up some B787s as security. They must own a few. Still aircraft values must be nosediving right now.
 
groupguy
Posts: 21
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 am

Trk1 wrote:
I still maintain it will never fly.
think Breeze will be a huge success almost straight away, especially now as labour costs will be a lot less, as millions apply for jobs.
 
groupguy
Posts: 21
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:51 am

argentinevol98 wrote:
Cheap fuel and cheap pilots are still "expensive" when your planes are empty. That's the real concern here. The majors are in all disarray but they are all in disarray for the same reason every private sector airline (and many public sector ones) on Earth is as well. This is something that affects everyone in the industry. No matter how established or how new and no matter how small and how large.

I also see a lot of the typical strategies a start-up has as being deeply damaged by the virus. Namely competitive pricing. It is fairly well known that most airlines when beginning operations tend to offer competitive fares to attract new customers and build market share. Thing is, I don't think that strategy will work right now. Major airlines are already offering ridiculous fares in many sectors across the country. $50RTs are now uncommon right now. F9 offered me a $30RT MIA-PHL trip with a right to a no charge cancellation included. How do you be even more competitive than that? You can't even really make up for it in service seen as how for sanitary reasons you can't even give your F passengers proper meals right now. Everything has to be pre-packaged. So where's your way in right now?

I still see Breeze as being a successful proposition and have a good feeling about it as a start-up and I absolutely do believe that they will take advantage of the low oil prices and the pilot hiring freeze to good effect but I would be shocked if they don't delay EIS. If they enter service in this environment they will bleed a too much money and spook future investors. Getting loans and cash injections is going to hard in this current situation of airline bailouts. Interests rates are dirt-low but that doesn't guarantee an airline will get approved. I'd wager that it will be difficult for them to do so. Investors are going to weary as well of putting money into an airline venture. Neeleman is a smart guy and I see him playing it safe here.
in a few months, maybe 6, corona will be forgotten & life, with possibly less airlines will continue. After SEP 11, we have enhanced security at airports, or at least the impression of that. Think corona will end up being treated as just another flue type bug.
 
pmanni1
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:39 am

groupguy wrote:
Trk1 wrote:
I still maintain it will never fly.
think Breeze will be a huge success almost straight away, especially now as labour costs will be a lot less, as millions apply for jobs.

As millions apply for jobs would mean millions aren't working and aren't going to have money for vacations.
 
groupguy
Posts: 21
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 am

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:44 am

pmanni1 wrote:
groupguy wrote:
Trk1 wrote:
I still maintain it will never fly.
think Breeze will be a huge success almost straight away, especially now as labour costs will be a lot less, as millions apply for jobs.

As millions apply for jobs would mean millions aren't working and aren't going to have money for vacations.
not the same millions. Plenty of people will still have holidays. Pent up demand will be high.

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