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WPvsMW
Posts: 1182
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:05 pm

SkyTeam allows an alliance member a certain number of codeshares with non-ST operators. I doubt that developments at AUS will impact the KE/AA codeshare(s).
 
jagraham
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:14 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:


"Delta has eight hubs across the United States. The company's three other "Focus Cities" are Boston, Nashville and Raleigh-Durham."

Whoever wrote this needs to do some fact checking

Spokesperson seemed caught off guard


There does indeed seem to be some confusion. Neither RDU or CVG are on the website (neither is BNA but I expected that). I am pretty sure RDU and CVG are focus cities.
 
jagraham
Posts: 493
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:42 am

Even though DL is #4 in AUS now, that doesn't mean DL won't grow in AUS. We have been down that path in NYC and LAX.

AUS is not NY or LA. But it is growing fast. And the high paying high tech jobs are growing faster. Add to that the Texas hole DL has now, and there is a recipe to do something more at AUS.

I don't believe 250 departures in the forseeable future. But there are places to squeeze in; WN has over 30 nonstops from AUS, but you can't get to AMA, CRP, SAT, MAF nonstop. Nor can you get to ICT, LIT, OKC, OMA TUL, ICT, MEM nonstop. You can't get to SHV, FAY, at all. It's easier to fly far away than in-state or neighboring states.

In addition to the flying to hubs, and a few international departures, I can see 25 to 50 regional departures. Some to DFW, IAH, etc to keep the medallions on DL; some to places WN doesn't fly nonstop, and a few to places WN doesn't fly at all. 2 or 3x daily each except for DFW and HOU to start. It should work and get AUS people flying DL to avoid the connections, in addition to the medallions collecting FF miles and using FF benefits.
 
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Midway737
Posts: 166
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here is a map of the nonstop routes that could be served nonstop out of AUS by DL:
Image


AUS-ORD....on DL........you can't be serious



I say the same thing!
 
WeatherPilot
Posts: 118
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:51 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:48 pm

I've got a feeling F9 will be flying SYR to AUS before DL ever considers it. SYR had service to DFW a while back with AA but that was short lived. SYR, ALB, ROC needs somebody with a direct to Texas.
 
SATexan
Posts: 237
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:48 pm

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
SATexan wrote:
Can somebody kindly provide a link for this AUS airport masterplan? I being a regular to this airport don't think there is ANY space in the current framework to add 30-40-50 gates. May be I am wrong but after reading this thread I am incredibly curious to see what they are planning and how they are planning.


http://www.abiamasterplan.com/ shows the 3 remaining alternatives.
http://www.austintexas.gov/page/airport-master-plan shows the original ideas, most of which were discarded
not sure the website for the patio.


Just to be clear, this is 2040 Masterplan with none of the proposed alternatives actually FINALIZED. How will this cater to DL's plans for the next 8-10 years?
 
digitalman12
Posts: 20
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:02 pm

I could see WN offering nonstop ALB-AUS/DAL/HOU at some point but DL won't have Upstate-TX anytime soon
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:07 pm

SATexan wrote:
LovePrunesAnet wrote:
SATexan wrote:
Can somebody kindly provide a link for this AUS airport masterplan? I being a regular to this airport don't think there is ANY space in the current framework to add 30-40-50 gates. May be I am wrong but after reading this thread I am incredibly curious to see what they are planning and how they are planning.


http://www.abiamasterplan.com/ shows the 3 remaining alternatives.
http://www.austintexas.gov/page/airport-master-plan shows the original ideas, most of which were discarded
not sure the website for the patio.


Just to be clear, this is 2040 Masterplan with none of the proposed alternatives actually FINALIZED. How will this cater to DL's plans for the next 8-10 years?


Thats not how the airport master planning update process works

There will be final recommendation before the master plan update is approved. If an airline such as Delta makes the forecasted passenger traffic happen sooner than expected, then the airport will move up construction to do future capacity-enhancing projects sooner. They arent catering to Delta or any other airline nor should they.

Remember this Delta patio service to 250 to 350 daily flights and "several international flights" is all based off a help wanted ad and fanboy speculation after a poorly sourced and unconfirmed fake news story. There are two achools if thought: its happening and "just you wait, we will show you we were right and you were wrong" and the people who actually understand airline and airport economics who have said this wild speculation is absurd.

I suspect a scooby doo reaction (I would have my AUS focus city if it werent for you meddling kids") once AUS doesnt turn into the next RDU, let alone "MSP south"

To the civic cheerleadng group that keeps fanning this thread, everying in this master plan will be needed yesterday :roll:
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:24 pm

And NO, there will be NO A380s flying into AUS, either. Unless they get an emergency in flight diversion from DFW or IAH. There are actually same user names from this thread speculating on other aviation sites how the A380s that will be coming to AUS will be handled. Shaking my head.
 
malev2012
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:48 pm

jagraham wrote:
Even though DL is #4 in AUS now, that doesn't mean DL won't grow in AUS. We have been down that path in NYC and LAX.

AUS is not NY or LA. But it is growing fast. And the high paying high tech jobs are growing faster. Add to that the Texas hole DL has now, and there is a recipe to do something more at AUS.

I don't believe 250 departures in the forseeable future. But there are places to squeeze in; WN has over 30 nonstops from AUS, but you can't get to AMA, CRP, SAT, MAF nonstop. Nor can you get to ICT, LIT, OKC, OMA TUL, ICT, MEM nonstop. You can't get to SHV, FAY, at all. It's easier to fly far away than in-state or neighboring states.

In addition to the flying to hubs, and a few international departures, I can see 25 to 50 regional departures. Some to DFW, IAH, etc to keep the medallions on DL; some to places WN doesn't fly nonstop, and a few to places WN doesn't fly at all. 2 or 3x daily each except for DFW and HOU to start. It should work and get AUS people flying DL to avoid the connections, in addition to the medallions collecting FF miles and using FF benefits.

It is easier to fly fare away then places that are a 6-10 hour drive away. I think this is VC's business plan is to fly to relatively close by cities, that a 737 or 738 would be far too much plane (meaning WN won't compete non stop). VC flies from AUS to AMA, BTR, LIT, OKC, TUL, TUS on 50 seat regional jets. UA and AA won't overfly their mega hubs either. If VC is able to make a go of some markets like LIT, OKC, TUL, just think how easy it would be for DL with their presence. So maybe 5-10 years down the road as AUS grows, these destinations aren't out of the question, especially if DL can beat WN to them.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, CO, DL, DY, F9, IB, KL, LH, LX, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE,
 
ADrum23
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:13 pm

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
There will be final recommendation before the master plan update is approved. If an airline such as Delta makes the forecasted passenger traffic happen sooner than expected, then the airport will move up construction to do future capacity-enhancing projects sooner. They aren't catering to Delta or any other airline nor should they.


Of course, but nonetheless, DL and the other airlines will play an important role in the process.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Remember this Delta patio service to 250 to 350 daily flights and "several international flights" is all based off a help wanted ad and fanboy speculation after a poorly sourced and unconfirmed fake news story.


Nobody said anything about 250-350 flights for sure happening, they said it COULD happen. Big difference. Its called a little speculation, people do it all the time on here. You also realize that even if 250 flights happened, it would take years to build it up to that level.

And I still have yet to see any proof that the KXAN story is fabricated "fake news". If you are so confident it is, why don't you contact them and tell them to retract the story? Notice how the job posting was not even mentioned in the story.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
There are two achools if thought: its happening and "just you wait, we will show you we were right and you were wrong" and the people who actually understand airline and airport economics who have said this wild speculation is absurd.


What is an achool of thought?

You actually understand airline and airport economics? LOL. Very few people here do, which is why we see so many instances of people deriding ideas and mocking users, only later to be proven dead wrong.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
To the civic cheerleadng group that keeps fanning this thread, everying in this master plan will be needed yesterday :roll:


You do realize the AUS terminal will hit capacity this year. The entire terminal (including the not yet opened 9 gate extension) was designed to handle 15 million, they will likely meet or exceed that this year. AUS has 10-11 less gates on average then some of its peers (BNA, RDU, CVG, etc) and yet it is growing faster than almost all of them. The satellite concourse and the third runway will happen regardless of what DL does.

It's pretty obvious by now you are a troll who has nothing better to do than sit around and mock people on this thread. Consider this your last response.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:14 pm

Mods, can we lock this thread please? This is no longer productive. We can start a new one when more concrete information comes out.
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:15 am

Adrum23:

Just because I vehemently disagree with your points does not make me a troll. I happen to be in the industry and know a thing or two. No need to contact a local tv station, although if you'd like to be able to rub all this in everyone's face how you're right and the people with finance/econ reasons why this isn't a thing are wrong, go right ahead. But there's no need to call someone names or shame people with false labels because they're not on board with your dreaming big on AUS.

regarding asking what's an "achool if thought"... my phone allowed some typos. my apologies. I would think you'd be plenty able to know the idiom "school of thought" even when misspelled. C'mon, no need for you to be petty, dude.

you put: "You actually understand airline and airport economics? LOL. Very few people here do, which is why we see so many instances of people deriding ideas and mocking users." So with your words you are now saying those who disagree with your ideas don't understand airline and airport economics, when those that actually DO understand them have given perfectly reasonable explanations why your dreaming big of mini-MSP at Austin will never work. Just because you don't like the push back doesn't mean we don't know what we're talking about, nor does it make someone a troll. It seems you've gotten really worked up "consider this your last response" which ought to be a sign that maybe you're taking this Delta expansion, whatever it is, a little too personally. No need man, we just vastly disagree.

I would agree the thread doesn't have much more purpose till an official announcement is made. It should have been titled "speculation" on the thread title anyway, as it has made a mountain out of a molehill and been the fuel for WILD speculation.
 
dfdubflyer
Posts: 62
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:01 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:38 am

The Austinites will be even more insufferable when Delta adds a couple flights to RDU and BOS so they can declare victory on this whole nonsense thing.
 
rj777
Posts: 1710
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 1:47 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:07 am

Do you think we'll see AUS-MKE nonstop?
 
masonh2479
Posts: 129
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:22 am

rj777 wrote:
Do you think we'll see AUS-MKE nonstop?

Not from Delta, maybe Southwest, Frontier flies to MKE from AUS now, probably seasonal though.
 
ldvaviation
Posts: 1192
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:21 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:35 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Of course, but nonetheless, DL and the other airlines will play an important role in the process.



At airports like Austin, one signatory airline is usually at the mercy of the other signatory airlines if it wants to expand.

That is especially true if the airline in question is not the largest airline at the airport. DL is fourth at Austin.

For strategic reasons, I suspect AA and Southwest will reject any cost-sharing proposal that adds more gates on spec.
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3031
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:23 am

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Thats not how the process works

There will be final recommendation before the master plan update is approved. If an airline such as Delta makes the forecasted passenger traffic happen sooner than expected, then the airport will move up construction to do future capacity-enhancing projects sooner. They arent catering to Delta or any other airline nor should they.


This part is true. It's worth reminding others, though, that the current expansion is several-years overdue, and even when it's completed, the terminal will be at its stated capacity of 15 million (we're likely to be at or near 16 million for 2018). The next expansion phase will require a new construction, and it will likely be an additional concourse with another 20ish gates. That puts Austin at 55 gates.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Remember this Delta patio service to 250 to 350 daily flights and "several international flights" is all based off a help wanted ad and fanboy speculation. There are two achools if thought: its happening and "just you wait, we will show you we were right and you were wrong" and the people who actually understand airline and airport economics who have said this wild speculation is absurd.

To the civic cheerleadng group that keeps fanning this thread, everying in this master plan will be needed yesterday :roll:


This part isn't. You're being intentionally dense and using a strawman argument. The discussion here is not about and has not ever been about, an SLC-sized hub. The title of the thread refers to the long-standing rumor: a focus city, a la RDU. Nobody here expects anything other than that in the short-to-medium term. It's completely pointless to speculate what AUS may look like 30-40 years from now. But you continue to misrepresent the posters here to argue a point you want to argue, rather than the points that are actually being made.

It may seem to you that this entire thread is based on a job posting, but for those of us contributing, this is simply additional evidence from a rumor that has been slowly gaining support over the last year. You may not see it, you may not believe it, but this line of thinking has been around since well before the job posting. You don't seem to understand that, and seem to believe people are reacting solely to a LinkedIn job posting. I don't know how clearly I have to spell it out for you that it isn't true.

I choose to believe my sources that are connected to the Port. You can say I'm full of it, and that's fine; I genuinely don't care. It continues to be apparent you know very little about Austin if you think the "civic cheerleading" group is completely off-base about future air travel needs in this city.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
malev2012
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:34 am

dfdubflyer wrote:
The Austinites will be even more insufferable when Delta adds a couple flights to RDU and BOS so they can declare victory on this whole nonsense thing.

They already do,
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, CO, DL, DY, F9, IB, KL, LH, LX, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE,
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:53 am

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Just because I vehemently disagree with your points does not make me a troll. I happen to be in the industry and know a thing or two. No need to contact a local tv station, although if you'd like to be able to rub all this in everyone's face how you're right and the people with finance/econ reasons why this isn't a thing are wrong, go right ahead. But there's no need to call someone names or shame people with false labels because they're not on board with your dreaming big on AUS.


Once again, I don't care if you disagree, I actually welcome that. It's good not to agree on everything. My problem is when users like yourself resort to mocking comments like

Ok now weve gone into "several 30+ gate gate concourses and a secondary gateway to Latin America." From a single sales job position. You AUS fanboys must have been hanging out with the XNA fanboys, but you're making them look reasonable by comparison. Ridiculous ideas here, but hey, as long as you're having fun with the hobby, why not indulge? :rotfl:


The only reason EXE hasn't been successful is because they lack a PATIO / DECK / PORCH thing at an airport lounge, which as we all know is the indicator an airport has "arrived" on the international stage, with flights to enviable locations, etc. But shame on you, you're going to get this riveting thread off topic!


I suspect a scooby doo reaction (I would have my AUS focus city if it werent for you meddling kids") once AUS doesn't turn into the next RDU, let alone "MSP south"


That is counter-productive and frankly, childish. You accused me of being petty with my comment about "achool of thought" (yes, I know what you meant), but you yourself have been plenty petty this whole thread with those comments and others.

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
you put: "You actually understand airline and airport economics? LOL. Very few people here do, which is why we see so many instances of people deriding ideas and mocking users." So with your words you are now saying those who disagree with your ideas don't understand airline and airport economics, when those that actually DO understand them have given perfectly reasonable explanations why your dreaming big of mini-MSP at Austin will never work. Just because you don't like the push back doesn't mean we don't know what we're talking about, nor does it make someone a troll. It seems you've gotten really worked up "consider this your last response" which ought to be a sign that maybe you're taking this Delta expansion, whatever it is, a little too personally. No need man, we just vastly disagree.


Just an FYI, I was not the one who said "MSP South." I even said I don't see AUS becoming the size of MSP/DTW. What I said was I see SLC size (250-300) absolute best case scenario long term, and even then, it would take a while to build.

As to your point, no, that is not at all what I was saying. It has nothing to do with me being right or you being wrong. What I was saying is that since most people on this forum don't understand airline/airport economics, there have been a lot of instances like this thread where someone proposes an idea and people instantaneously push back and deride the idea (often forcefully), only to be proven wrong later. My first thread on this forum was a good example of that. You can cite all the economic factors/statistics you want, but airlines have access to much better data than we do. Just because you are in the industry does not make you an expert on everything. I'm sure you know a lot, but like me, you are capable of being wrong. Like I said before, conventional wisdom can and will be challenged, otherwise, things like DL at SEA would never happen.

You (and others) have made definitive statements stating things like a hub will never happen, or AMS will never happen. You don't know that, nor do I know for a fact that a DL hub will emerge long term at AUS. But we can have an honest conversation based on the little bits of info we do know. And frankly, if it only becomes a RDU/CVG-style focus city, I don't care, that's great. I've said consistently that DL needs a TX presence, that doesn't necessarily mean a hub. It can be a focus city as well.

Another FYI for the conclusion, I don't even live in Austin, so I am not an AUS fanboy. But after my recent visit there over memorial day weekend and seeing what I saw (not just at the airport, but in the whole Austin/San Antonio region), I do believe DL would be wise to get in on some sort of expansion at AUS while there is still time. And I highly doubt they are putting that nice of a club in if they were planning on staying #4, otherwise, they'd be building a token small Sky Club or none at all.
 
pdxav8r
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:15 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:26 am

I love this thread, check it almost daily. Should be re-named ‘Argument Central’. No dog in the fight, but the discourse is fascinating. All this based on an employment ad? So much certainty on one side, so much negativity on the other. Got my popcorn, continue to bring it, as it seems nobody has a freaking clue one way or another. But one side will probably look like fools eventually. Armchair CEO’s and all battling it out.
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:03 am

Longhornmaniac wrote:
This part isn't. You're being intentionally dense and using a strawman argument. The discussion here is not about and has not ever been about, an SLC-sized hub.....


ADrum23 wrote:
What I said was I see SLC size (250-300) absolute best case scenario long term


Well Gee, Longhorn, I don't know what to tell ya, bud. The discussion has not ever been about an SLC sized hub? Austin could be SLC most certainly has come up as quoted above There have been so many crazy "business plans" floated here in this speculative / rumor thread, most of which make zero financial sense, address any kind of unmet need, or have any basis in reality. So I don't blame you for missing that various posters are suggesting AUS is the next MSP. Or SLC. and will have multiple international flights. Out of 80 or 90 new gates. (And on A380s by some of the same usernames on other web sites.) It just strains credibility.

Longhornmaniac wrote:
It may seem to you that this entire thread is based on a job posting, but for those of us contributing, this is simply additional evidence from a rumor that has been slowly gaining support over the last year. .


Beg to differ. I'm contributing just as much as you are, just taking the skeptical view. Seems like it's not the skeptics mission to prove you're wrong, even though we've given TONS of reasons why these ideas are wrong and will never succeed, but it's the advocates' mission to prove you're right...Something so far nobody has been able to do. Just saying things like "DL needs to be in TX more" won't cut it. To start this thread, some people originally shared some information as a stated declarative "this is happening" kind of thing, and it has led to people coming up with all kinds of preposterous ideas...
b777900 wrote:
... what about AUS-NRT NS and AUS-HKG ? there really is need for it as time goes on.
..., when nothing has even been acknowledged by ANYONE who really knows, that it's really happening.

pdxav8r wrote:
I love this thread, check it almost daily. Should be re-named ‘Argument Central’. No dog in the fight, but the discourse is fascinating. All this based on an employment ad? So much certainty on one side, so much negativity on the other. Got my popcorn, continue to bring it, as it seems nobody has a freaking clue one way or another. But one side will probably look like fools eventually. Armchair CEO’s and all battling it out.


Totally tracking with you. Fascinating. Someone needs to make like a fantasy football game, of airlines flying routes, but based on actual economic realities. Till then, there's the Austin focus city speculation thread, sponsored by Linkedin.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 1182
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:52 am

I'm the optimist who dubbed the vision "MSP South"... and it's just that ... a vision. Not a hallucination. Could DL traffic support an RDU or BOS in Texas? I don't think anyone who has watched Glen's work at DL can doubt it. In the pre-Glen days of the Tristar, the choice was DFW or IAH ... imagine a hypothetical DL expansion at ORD ... it didn't go well. Note that AUS' traffic already exceeds the planned max of the current terminal expansion project, and that AUS is the fastest growing city in the country, with business demographics like RDU and BOS. The LinkedIn post is irrelevant, just a catalyst for this amusing thread. IMO, here's Glen's bet: AUS can grow to BOS or RDU size quickly, with growth constrained only by gates, and growth beyond that is icing on the cake. The vision: in 30 years, AUS could be MSP South, but there's no doubt it will be another RDU or BOS in 15 years. If growth is too constrained by gates, DL could find the money from fund managers who buy into the vision. Who is more bankable in the biz than Ed and Glen? What is a more appealing "new feeder network" than SJC / AUS / RDU / BOS? Which is the DFW analog in that network?

Here's a hallucination for sport: the first ex-AUS destination in Asia will be a n/s to SZX. If you have to ask why... you'll disbelieve the answer, which is about 90% of all electronics touch Shenzhen at some point.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepar ... oogle.com/
 
Capn
Posts: 217
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:25 pm

LovePrunesAnet :

I have read all your posts on this thread, and you are kinda Snarky and rude.
We are all just trying to enjoy a discussion on something that we have an interest in.
The pro AUS/DL fans are just sharing insights that we put together and hope for the outcome we desire. Just fun stuff.
Your posts make you sound like you are SCARED of something happening ( maybe DELTAs current success continuing ).
You have your opinions as the rest of us do, let's just have a fun discussion...

P.S.
You might want to cut back on the " PRUNES " they may be affecting your posts...
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
tcfc424
Posts: 508
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:56 pm

There are 2 completely separate arguments going on in this thread which is making it easier to muddle the waters, as everyone wants to attribute some facts into causality. The next airport expansion process will begin immediately upon completion of the current expansion project, regardless of what DL's intentions are. The proof for that is laid out in multiple different areas, but I will help some of you out:
1) Existing airport master plan for Austin Bergstrom International Airport, which can be found here: http://www.austintexas.gov/page/airport-master-plan
2) The expediency with which the airport authority is working to finalize the next master plan (this fall) which would coincide with being able to begin construction next spring.
3) The planning architect that I know that is currently working on the plans for the expansion to begin Spring/Summer 2019.
4) The fact that Austin will exceed the expansion terminal capacity (15,000,000) THIS year, before the expansion is completed. The current terminal was designed with a capacity of 11,000,000. Last year, the airport saw 13,800,000 passengers (source:www.austintexas.gov). That puts the current terminal at 125% capacity.
5) Projected passenger numbers for this year (also before the expansion is completed) are 16,000,000. That puts the terminal at 145% capacity. Are you starting to see why those of us flying through the airport weekly are screaming about the growth? Call us the canaries in the coal mine.
6) Based on current passenger growth numbers (16% widely reported) the airport can expect to handle 18,560,000 passengers in 2019. With the current expansion opening (spring/summer 2019), that will put the terminal capacity at 123%.

We all understand that this growth may or may not continue, but based on the historical data available to the aviation authority, they are fairly confident that the growth will continue, even if it does slow down. To not plan for and accommodate that anticipated growth would be a mistake. The city of Austin itself has seen the problems that type of thinking creates...anyone familiar with the city from the 1990's knows the term "Smart growth" which essentially was the council's position that if you don't build it, they won't come. Instead, Dell set up shop and grew, as did the entire tech sector currently in Austin. The end result was lack of infrastructure throughout the city that we are still woefully behind on some 30 years later. Already, the airport authority was caught with it's proverbial pants down by missing the 10,000,000 passenger trigger for beginning the current expansion for 3 years. That has put us in the 125% - 145% of capacity we are currently.

Essentially, two separate issues in this thread -> 1) Delta's intentions and 2) the airport's intentions. I recommend separating them, as they do not have a cause and effect relationship at this point. That is not to say that IN THE FUTURE the expansion conducted by the airport couldn't have the effect of DL eventually setting up shop, be it focus city, hub, next ATL (I jest, I jest! Relax, I know thats a good 3 years away. Its a JOKE).
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3031
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:01 pm

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:
This part isn't. You're being intentionally dense and using a strawman argument. The discussion here is not about and has not ever been about, an SLC-sized hub.....


ADrum23 wrote:
What I said was I see SLC size (250-300) absolute best case scenario long term


Well Gee, Longhorn, I don't know what to tell ya, bud. The discussion has not ever been about an SLC sized hub? Austin could be SLC most certainly has come up as quoted above There have been so many crazy "business plans" floated here in this speculative / rumor thread, most of which make zero financial sense, address any kind of unmet need, or have any basis in reality. So I don't blame you for missing that various posters are suggesting AUS is the next MSP. Or SLC. and will have multiple international flights. Out of 80 or 90 new gates. (And on A380s by some of the same usernames on other web sites.) It just strains credibility.

Longhornmaniac wrote:
It may seem to you that this entire thread is based on a job posting, but for those of us contributing, this is simply additional evidence from a rumor that has been slowly gaining support over the last year. .


Beg to differ. I'm contributing just as much as you are, just taking the skeptical view. Seems like it's not the skeptics mission to prove you're wrong, even though we've given TONS of reasons why these ideas are wrong and will never succeed, but it's the advocates' mission to prove you're right...Something so far nobody has been able to do. Just saying things like "DL needs to be in TX more" won't cut it. To start this thread, some people originally shared some information as a stated declarative "this is happening" kind of thing, and it has led to people coming up with all kinds of preposterous ideas...
b777900 wrote:
... what about AUS-NRT NS and AUS-HKG ? there really is need for it as time goes on.
..., when nothing has even been acknowledged by ANYONE who really knows, that it's really happening.

pdxav8r wrote:
I love this thread, check it almost daily. Should be re-named ‘Argument Central’. No dog in the fight, but the discourse is fascinating. All this based on an employment ad? So much certainty on one side, so much negativity on the other. Got my popcorn, continue to bring it, as it seems nobody has a freaking clue one way or another. But one side will probably look like fools eventually. Armchair CEO’s and all battling it out.


Totally tracking with you. Fascinating. Someone needs to make like a fantasy football game, of airlines flying routes, but based on actual economic realities. Till then, there's the Austin focus city speculation thread, sponsored by Linkedin.


First off, read, then reread, the thread title. There have been a couple of people who have mentioned an MSP/SLC-sized hub, but it's A) admittedly pure speculation, and B) admittedly a long ways off if it were to ever materialize (which let me once again go on record as believing would never happen). This thread has always been about a Focus City. The job posting was about a focus city, the title of the thread was about a focus city, and 99% of the discussion is (was) about a focus city. In fact, you have single-handedly turned this into a discussion (argument) about a hub. I don't mind if you disagree with me or us, but your method of doing so is both misrepresenting the majority of the posters here and our expectations, and quite rude. You're making snide, sarcastic remarks and completely patronizing multiple people. A number of us continue to correct you about our sentiments, and you continue to try and prove a point by splitting hairs and arguing a strawman. If you want to disagree, disagree with our actual argument (that Delta has plans to grow AUS into an RDU-sized Focus City in the near term), and not the strawman you continue to try to tell us we're arguing (that Delta is going to grow AUS into an MSP/SLC-sized hub with multiple international services to a variety of destinations).

I'm done trying to spell this out for you. If you want to have a go at that, be my guest, and we can continue the dialogue. But if you continue to insist people here are arguing for an imminent large-scale hub, your reading comprehension skills are lacking (regardless of your cherrypicking skills) and there's no point in continuing.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
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FA9295
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:36 pm

Capn wrote:
P.S.
You might want to cut back on the " PRUNES " they may be affecting your posts...

LMFAO! :rotfl:
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:47 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Mods, can we lock this thread please? This is no longer productive. We can start a new one when more concrete information comes out.

That's not how it works. There isn't an alert we receive when you type "mods" in a thread. We don't read every thread so the best way to get our attention is to click on the little triangle and report a post/topic.
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tcfc424
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:48 pm

Instead of relying on my pretty solid (yet unsubstantiated) understandings of the Austin aviation market, here are some additional numbers.

YEAR PAX % Change 5-Year Rolling average
2002 6,600,000
2003 6,600,000 0.00%
2004 7,100,000 7.58%
2005 7,500,000 5.63%
2006 8,100,000 8.00%
2007 8,700,000 7.41% 5.72%
2008 8,800,000 1.15% 5.95%
2009 8,200,000 -6.82% 3.07%
2010 8,700,000 6.10% 3.58%
2011 9,100,000 4.60% 3.41%
2012 9,400,000 3.30% 2.62%
2013 10,000,000 6.38% 2.45%
2014 10,700,000 7.00% 3.43%
2015 11,900,000 11.21% 6.50%
2016 12,400,000 4.20% 6.42%
2017 13,900,000 12.10% 8.18%

The Average of the averages is 4.67%. Assuming this 15-year trend continues for 15 years, we would be looking at the following numbers:

2018 14,549,130
2019 15,228,574
2020 15,939,749
2021 16,684,135
2022 17,463,284
2023 18,278,820
2024 19,132,440
2025 20,025,925
2026 20,961,136
2027 21,940,021
2028 22,964,620
2029 24,037,068
2030 25,159,599
2031 26,334,552
2032 27,564,376
2033 28,851,632

I'm not saying this will hold true, and it likely will not, however in this case, following historical, factual trends over an extended amount of time, the numbers in 2033 are comparable to JFK and SFO today. Both airports have more than 32 gates. It's notable that I did not use numbers from this year (16m+) I used historical numbers and that's already 1.5m less than actual trend. This isn't tomorrow or next year, this is 15 years into the future. Considering it could take 5-10 years to construct an additional satellite terminal and related facilities, it is critical that the planning be completed quickly with proper trigger points that are followed to ensure the capabilities are managed appropriately.

Just for fun, I updated the starting number to the currently anticipated 16m and get 31,728,778 in 2033. That would put AUS between DFW and DEN (as they are today).
 
N626AA
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:00 pm

As an Austin native, it's fascinating to see how much Bergstrom (and the city and metro area) have grown since it opened in '99. Any locals remember when they added the national guard extension down by 35L at burleson rd and Emma Browning ave? I thought for sure that was going to be a new terminal before digging some info.

Once the plans for a new terminal become concrete and formulate, I wonder what they'll do with the current south terminal.
A306 319 320 321 332 333 343 B722 733 734 735 737 738 744 752 762 763 772 773 DC93 DC1040 MD82/83/88 MD90 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9 E140 E145/45X DHQ3 ATR7
 
axiom
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:14 pm

tcfc424 wrote:
Instead of relying on my pretty solid (yet unsubstantiated) understandings of the Austin aviation market, here are some additional numbers.

YEAR PAX % Change 5-Year Rolling average
2002 6,600,000
2003 6,600,000 0.00%
2004 7,100,000 7.58%
2005 7,500,000 5.63%
2006 8,100,000 8.00%
2007 8,700,000 7.41% 5.72%
2008 8,800,000 1.15% 5.95%
2009 8,200,000 -6.82% 3.07%
2010 8,700,000 6.10% 3.58%
2011 9,100,000 4.60% 3.41%
2012 9,400,000 3.30% 2.62%
2013 10,000,000 6.38% 2.45%
2014 10,700,000 7.00% 3.43%
2015 11,900,000 11.21% 6.50%
2016 12,400,000 4.20% 6.42%
2017 13,900,000 12.10% 8.18%

The Average of the averages is 4.67%. Assuming this 15-year trend continues for 15 years, we would be looking at the following numbers:

2018 14,549,130
2019 15,228,574
2020 15,939,749
2021 16,684,135
2022 17,463,284
2023 18,278,820
2024 19,132,440
2025 20,025,925
2026 20,961,136
2027 21,940,021
2028 22,964,620
2029 24,037,068
2030 25,159,599
2031 26,334,552
2032 27,564,376
2033 28,851,632

I'm not saying this will hold true, and it likely will not, however in this case, following historical, factual trends over an extended amount of time, the numbers in 2033 are comparable to JFK and SFO today. Both airports have more than 32 gates. It's notable that I did not use numbers from this year (16m+) I used historical numbers and that's already 1.5m less than actual trend. This isn't tomorrow or next year, this is 15 years into the future. Considering it could take 5-10 years to construct an additional satellite terminal and related facilities, it is critical that the planning be completed quickly with proper trigger points that are followed to ensure the capabilities are managed appropriately.

Just for fun, I updated the starting number to the currently anticipated 16m and get 31,728,778 in 2033. That would put AUS between DFW and DEN (as they are today).


Your growth rates do not factor in a recession. These growth rates are not sustainable -- not because of AUS, but because that's not how capitalism works. There will be at least one, and potentially two, recessions over this horizon.

IMO, a more nuanced projection might compare AUS with other airports that have seen high growth in recent decades.
 
malev2012
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:19 pm

tcfc424 wrote:
Instead of relying on my pretty solid (yet unsubstantiated) understandings of the Austin aviation market, here are some additional numbers.

YEAR PAX % Change 5-Year Rolling average
2002 6,600,000
2003 6,600,000 0.00%
2004 7,100,000 7.58%
2005 7,500,000 5.63%
2006 8,100,000 8.00%
2007 8,700,000 7.41% 5.72%
2008 8,800,000 1.15% 5.95%
2009 8,200,000 -6.82% 3.07%
2010 8,700,000 6.10% 3.58%
2011 9,100,000 4.60% 3.41%
2012 9,400,000 3.30% 2.62%
2013 10,000,000 6.38% 2.45%
2014 10,700,000 7.00% 3.43%
2015 11,900,000 11.21% 6.50%
2016 12,400,000 4.20% 6.42%
2017 13,900,000 12.10% 8.18%

The Average of the averages is 4.67%. Assuming this 15-year trend continues for 15 years, we would be looking at the following numbers:

2018 14,549,130
2019 15,228,574
2020 15,939,749
2021 16,684,135
2022 17,463,284
2023 18,278,820
2024 19,132,440
2025 20,025,925
2026 20,961,136
2027 21,940,021
2028 22,964,620
2029 24,037,068
2030 25,159,599
2031 26,334,552
2032 27,564,376
2033 28,851,632

I'm not saying this will hold true, and it likely will not, however in this case, following historical, factual trends over an extended amount of time, the numbers in 2033 are comparable to JFK and SFO today. Both airports have more than 32 gates. It's notable that I did not use numbers from this year (16m+) I used historical numbers and that's already 1.5m less than actual trend. This isn't tomorrow or next year, this is 15 years into the future. Considering it could take 5-10 years to construct an additional satellite terminal and related facilities, it is critical that the planning be completed quickly with proper trigger points that are followed to ensure the capabilities are managed appropriately.

Just for fun, I updated the starting number to the currently anticipated 16m and get 31,728,778 in 2033. That would put AUS between DFW and DEN (as they are today).


AUS will most certainly hit 20 million by 2030, unless Austin experiences a more severe economic downturn than the rest of the country. The south terminal represents just about 2% of the total number of passengers. Perhaps bus boarding will have to be used to fill the gap until the next expansion comes online in 5 to 10 years with these growth rates.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, CO, DL, DY, F9, IB, KL, LH, LX, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE,
 
malev2012
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:22 pm

axiom wrote:
tcfc424 wrote:
YEAR PAX % Change 5-Year Rolling average
2002 6,600,000
2003 6,600,000 0.00%
2004 7,100,000 7.58%
2005 7,500,000 5.63%
2006 8,100,000 8.00%
2007 8,700,000 7.41% 5.72%
2008 8,800,000 1.15% 5.95%
2009 8,200,000 -6.82% 3.07%
2010 8,700,000 6.10% 3.58%
2011 9,100,000 4.60% 3.41%
2012 9,400,000 3.30% 2.62%
2013 10,000,000 6.38% 2.45%
2014 10,700,000 7.00% 3.43%
2015 11,900,000 11.21% 6.50%
2016 12,400,000 4.20% 6.42%
2017 13,900,000 12.10% 8.18%

The Average of the averages is 4.67%. Assuming this 15-year trend continues for 15 years, we would be looking at the following numbers:

.


Your growth rates do not factor in a recession. These growth rates are not sustainable -- not because of AUS, but because that's not how capitalism works. There will be at least one, and potentially two, recessions over this horizon.

IMO, a more nuanced projection might compare AUS with other airports that have seen high growth in recent decades.

2008 recession is part of the 15 year average, that wasn't a mild recession either.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, CO, DL, DY, F9, IB, KL, LH, LX, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE,
 
masonh2479
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:15 pm

Here is an interesting read about the possible future of Delta at Austin:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-delta-eyes-austin-to-close-texas-gap-449969/

If this has already been posted then my apologies.
 
reggiet
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:16 am

tcfc424 wrote:
There are 2 completely separate arguments going on in this thread which is making it easier to muddle the waters, as everyone wants to attribute some facts into causality. The next airport expansion process will begin immediately upon completion of the current expansion project, regardless of what DL's intentions are. The proof for that is laid out in multiple different areas, but I will help some of you out:
1) Existing airport master plan for Austin Bergstrom International Airport, which can be found here: http://www.austintexas.gov/page/airport-master-plan
2) The expediency with which the airport authority is working to finalize the next master plan (this fall) which would coincide with being able to begin construction next spring.
3) The planning architect that I know that is currently working on the plans for the expansion to begin Spring/Summer 2019.
4) The fact that Austin will exceed the expansion terminal capacity (15,000,000) THIS year, before the expansion is completed. The current terminal was designed with a capacity of 11,000,000. Last year, the airport saw 13,800,000 passengers (source:www.austintexas.gov). That puts the current terminal at 125% capacity.
5) Projected passenger numbers for this year (also before the expansion is completed) are 16,000,000. That puts the terminal at 145% capacity. Are you starting to see why those of us flying through the airport weekly are screaming about the growth? Call us the canaries in the coal mine.
6) Based on current passenger growth numbers (16% widely reported) the airport can expect to handle 18,560,000 passengers in 2019. With the current expansion opening (spring/summer 2019), that will put the terminal capacity at 123%.

We all understand that this growth may or may not continue, but based on the historical data available to the aviation authority, they are fairly confident that the growth will continue, even if it does slow down. To not plan for and accommodate that anticipated growth would be a mistake. The city of Austin itself has seen the problems that type of thinking creates...anyone familiar with the city from the 1990's knows the term "Smart growth" which essentially was the council's position that if you don't build it, they won't come. Instead, Dell set up shop and grew, as did the entire tech sector currently in Austin. The end result was lack of infrastructure throughout the city that we are still woefully behind on some 30 years later. Already, the airport authority was caught with it's proverbial pants down by missing the 10,000,000 passenger trigger for beginning the current expansion for 3 years. That has put us in the 125% - 145% of capacity we are currently.

Essentially, two separate issues in this thread -> 1) Delta's intentions and 2) the airport's intentions. I recommend separating them, as they do not have a cause and effect relationship at this point. That is not to say that IN THE FUTURE the expansion conducted by the airport couldn't have the effect of DL eventually setting up shop, be it focus city, hub, next ATL (I jest, I jest! Relax, I know thats a good 3 years away. Its a JOKE).


Gracias Senor tcfc424. Muchos Gracias 8-)
Reggie in Austin
 
JDawgboy512
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:58 pm

compensateme wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
And unlike other threads, this is at least partially based in reality.


There’s absolutely nothing about this thread based on reality — you just suggested that DL will probably announce service to AMS for 2019, a comment that shows how silly and out of touch the AUS fan boys are.

The only people worked up are the AUS fan boys, who took a single job posting and turned it into DL devleoping a $5B (!) hub. I find it ironic that a certain poster’s DTW rants are mocked (including youn implicity above) on a daily basis, even though he hasn’t participated in the forum in quite awhile, yet the AUS fan boys have talked endlessly in oodles of threads about DL’s “big plans” — plans that quite frankly don’t exist.


I guess you didn't read everything in this thread. Has much more to do than just a job posting. Again for the 100th time, we have multiple sources here in Austin who are involved with the port who's information lines up and collaborates that Delta is about to build up at ABIA (AUS). There has been chatter on the local level for well over a year that something was going on behind the scenes. Maybe instead of focusing on a job posting or a news story, you look at what people on the ground in AUS are seeing then you will understand that DL is planning a focus city at least. We will see what happens later on but I put more weight with the people who work at the port anyday.
 
JDawgboy512
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:22 pm

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
SATexan wrote:
LovePrunesAnet wrote:

http://www.abiamasterplan.com/ shows the 3 remaining alternatives.
http://www.austintexas.gov/page/airport-master-plan shows the original ideas, most of which were discarded
not sure the website for the patio.


Just to be clear, this is 2040 Masterplan with none of the proposed alternatives actually FINALIZED. How will this cater to DL's plans for the next 8-10 years?


Thats not how the airport master planning update process works

There will be final recommendation before the master plan update is approved. If an airline such as Delta makes the forecasted passenger traffic happen sooner than expected, then the airport will move up construction to do future capacity-enhancing projects sooner. They arent catering to Delta or any other airline nor should they.

Remember this Delta patio service to 250 to 350 daily flights and "several international flights" is all based off a help wanted ad and fanboy speculation after a poorly sourced and unconfirmed fake news story. There are two achools if thought: its happening and "just you wait, we will show you we were right and you were wrong" and the people who actually understand airline and airport economics who have said this wild speculation is absurd.

I suspect a scooby doo reaction (I would have my AUS focus city if it werent for you meddling kids") once AUS doesnt turn into the next RDU, let alone "MSP south"

To the civic cheerleadng group that keeps fanning this thread, everying in this master plan will be needed yesterday :roll:
 
cvgComair
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:29 pm

JDawgboy512 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
And unlike other threads, this is at least partially based in reality.


There’s absolutely nothing about this thread based on reality — you just suggested that DL will probably announce service to AMS for 2019, a comment that shows how silly and out of touch the AUS fan boys are.

The only people worked up are the AUS fan boys, who took a single job posting and turned it into DL devleoping a $5B (!) hub. I find it ironic that a certain poster’s DTW rants are mocked (including youn implicity above) on a daily basis, even though he hasn’t participated in the forum in quite awhile, yet the AUS fan boys have talked endlessly in oodles of threads about DL’s “big plans” — plans that quite frankly don’t exist.


I guess you didn't read everything in this thread. Has much more to do than just a job posting. Again for the 100th time, we have multiple sources here in Austin who are involved with the port who's information lines up and collaborates that Delta is about to build up at ABIA (AUS). There has been chatter on the local level for well over a year that something was going on behind the scenes. Maybe instead of focusing on a job posting or a news story, you look at what people on the ground in AUS are seeing then you will understand that DL is planning a focus city at least. We will see what happens later on but I put more weight with the people who work at the port anyday.

Don't waste your time with compensateme, you could get a signed letter from Ed Bastian and this poster still wouldn't believe it.

Some posters have blown the AUS developments out of the water, as a big hub is not coming anytime soon. However, it certainly seems a small focus city is planned in the near-term. A lot of the PTP expansion was delayed due to the A220s, but once they start arriving this fall, DL will have the necessary RJs to add more PTP routes. We are talking no more than a few routes, as AUS is already a highly competitive station. It would be reasonable to assume DL will add IND + a few west coast markets. Long term there could be more, but if AUS-BOS is any indication, DL is not going to be able to quickly take control of the AUS market.
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ADrum23
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:01 pm

cvgComair wrote:
JDawgboy512 wrote:
compensateme wrote:

There’s absolutely nothing about this thread based on reality — you just suggested that DL will probably announce service to AMS for 2019, a comment that shows how silly and out of touch the AUS fan boys are.

The only people worked up are the AUS fan boys, who took a single job posting and turned it into DL devleoping a $5B (!) hub. I find it ironic that a certain poster’s DTW rants are mocked (including youn implicity above) on a daily basis, even though he hasn’t participated in the forum in quite awhile, yet the AUS fan boys have talked endlessly in oodles of threads about DL’s “big plans” — plans that quite frankly don’t exist.


I guess you didn't read everything in this thread. Has much more to do than just a job posting. Again for the 100th time, we have multiple sources here in Austin who are involved with the port who's information lines up and collaborates that Delta is about to build up at ABIA (AUS). There has been chatter on the local level for well over a year that something was going on behind the scenes. Maybe instead of focusing on a job posting or a news story, you look at what people on the ground in AUS are seeing then you will understand that DL is planning a focus city at least. We will see what happens later on but I put more weight with the people who work at the port anyday.

Don't waste your time with compensateme, you could get a signed letter from Ed Bastian and this poster still wouldn't believe it.

Some posters have blown the AUS developments out of the water, as a big hub is not coming anytime soon. However, it certainly seems a small focus city is planned in the near-term. A lot of the PTP expansion was delayed due to the A220s, but once they start arriving this fall, DL will have the necessary RJs to add more PTP routes. We are talking no more than a few routes, as AUS is already a highly competitive station. It would be reasonable to assume DL will add IND + a few west coast markets. Long term there could be more, but if AUS-BOS is any indication, DL is not going to be able to quickly take control of the AUS market.


Agreed. I don’t think anyone here is under the delusion that this will be an overnight process. I said hub previously, but I know that would be a loooong time down the road (at least a decade), if ever. DL needs to build up their FF base first. While I’m confident DL can compete, it will be very competitive in the short term. I think they’ll add AMS and the routes you said and then work from there.
 
axiom
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:13 pm

The thread title should be changed to "Could DL Build a Focus City at AUS?"

I keep coming to this thread looking for factual discussion related to the title, and I don't see it.
 
jetlanta
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:19 pm

Don't expect some big announcement. If it happens, it will happen in dribs and drabs as the new gates come online. One day, we will open up Sky Magazine and Austin will be in bold. The model here is RDU.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:24 pm

No. The model is not really RDU. RDU was a unique opportunity. AA pull down offered DL a chance to take on established routes and gain market share. RDU also had a huge DL elite station and opportunities not previously attempted. RDU also did not have an entrenched market share majority. AUS cant really say any of that. So how is RDU the model?
Aiming High and going far..
 
ADrum23
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:43 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
No. The model is not really RDU. RDU was a unique opportunity. AA pull down offered DL a chance to take on established routes and gain market share. RDU also had a huge DL elite station and opportunities not previously attempted. RDU also did not have an entrenched market share majority. AUS cant really say any of that. So how is RDU the model?


WN is not the majority airline at AUS, they only have a plurality. They aren’t even 40%.
 
filipair
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:26 pm

I think something to remember is that in a growth market, it's not a zero sum game. Delta won't necessarily be fighting for a current share of the loyal AA/WN passengers, but for future growth. We're looking at 20 million passengers per year within ten years, probably a lot sooner. That would be a 44% increase in PAX over 2017 figures. That's why Delta would slowly but surely build up AUS.
 
ldvaviation
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:38 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
No. The model is not really RDU. RDU was a unique opportunity. AA pull down offered DL a chance to take on established routes and gain market share. RDU also had a huge DL elite station and opportunities not previously attempted. RDU also did not have an entrenched market share majority. AUS cant really say any of that. So how is RDU the model?


WN is not the majority airline at AUS, they only have a plurality. They aren’t even 40%.


He didn't mention WN. He said there is an "entrenched market share majority."

By that he might have meant that the combined market share of WN, AA and UA constitutes a majority and is firmly established. It does and it is because two of the three operate mainly to their hubs from AUS and the third (the largest) operates as an LCC.

It is unreasonable to think that DL will displace WN by competing on cost or ticket price. It is also unreasonable to think that DL will displace AA or UA on any of their hub routes from AUS.

On that note, it is worth noting that all three (WN, AA, and UA) show no signs of pulling back from Austin and making things easy for DL. Last year, UA increased enplanements by 16.5%, matching Delta. This year, Southwest will continue to grow seats at a pace of 7 to 8%. And AA will grow seats by 15.5%.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:46 am

The US3+WN all see AUS as THE growth market in the US, since Austin is the fastest growing city in the US that also has an underserved market for premium nonstops. UA, AA, and WN won't create a hub in AUS, but ... the MSP-South premise goes ... DL could: of the US3+WN, only DL would invest in a new hub in Texas. The growth of DL at AUS depends upon the increase of gates available to DL at AUS, it's a poker game in which DL is willing the "raise the stakes in gates".
 
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ERJ170
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:02 am

So what are these underserved markets? Just wondering
Aiming High and going far..
 
WPvsMW
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:58 am

AUS to SkyTeam hubs and foci, then P2P.
Harbinger: BA 190/191 AUS/LHR daily n/s, 4-class 744. Service began 08 April 2017... if the RASMs weren't good, BA would have cut it.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:16 am

Slightly off topic, but is there an alternative to how AA and UA would expand from AUS other than adding frequencies or upgauging from expanding hubs (basically adding just seats)? Basically what would make a stop at one of their hubs more favorable over perhaps a nonstop with DL?

I guess upgauging would lower yields/cheap tickets, though I’m not so sure if that’s always in their best interest.
 
steveAUS
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Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:36 am

CarlosSi wrote:
Slightly off topic, but is there an alternative to how AA and UA would expand from AUS other than adding frequencies or upgauging from expanding hubs (basically adding just seats)? Basically what would make a stop at one of their hubs more favorable over perhaps a nonstop with DL?

I guess upgauging would lower yields/cheap tickets, though I’m not so sure if that’s always in their best interest.


Honestly, I don't think so. UA and AA already have daily flights to all their hubs...there are no new routes to hubs they can fly, so P2P is really one of their only options (outside of upgauging), which isn't really UA and AA's style.
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