Starting February 18th LO will fly to LCY 12x weekly from BUD (E190)

Without connections on either end is there enough business traffic to support this route?

I would say that there are many unserved routes from LCY that have more business potential than BUD, especially for a *A carrier, eg. VIE, ARN, OSL, CPH, HAM, MUC, STR

I’m wondering if LH would bring back their service to MUC?

konkret wrote:

Starting February 18th LO will fly to LCY 12x weekly from BUD (E190)

Without connections on either end is there enough business traffic to support this route?

I would say that there are many unserved routes from LCY that have more business potential than BUD, especially for a *A carrier, eg. VIE, ARN, OSL, HAM, MUC, STR

Agree totally. BUD-LON O/D is mainly low yield traffic of Hungarian workers and British tourists. None of them have a need to get into LCY. LGW, STN, LTN or even SEN will do. This is probably a Kaczyński/Orbán ego vanity project. No connections at either end, not much of business traffic...how can they not lose?...

MalevTU134 wrote:

No connections at either end, not much of business traffic...how can they not lose?...

Doesn't the existence of 4 daily British Airways flights from Heathrow speak to the existence of business traffic? I'm willing to be proven wrong but this looks like an innovative move.

In other news, LOT AMS is expanding to service Embraers in Budapest. I have a feeling we'll be seeing more European routes out of BUD. Any guesses?

It's unfortunate that so many on here immediately rush to politics.

I think this is great news. There is so much demand between Budapest and London and I am sure there are enough people who can afford to fly from LCY. Budapest has nicely developed over the past ten years and its economy seems to be improving quite a bit.

I am curious to see what the schedule will look like and if these planes will be based in BUD. If they open a mini base I wonder if they will operate another flight between the two LCY rotations. Maybe WAW?

Blerg wrote:

It's unfortunate that so many on here immediately rush to politics.

I think this is great news. There is so much demand between Budapest and London and I am sure there are enough people who can afford to fly from LCY. Budapest has nicely developed over the past ten years and its economy seems to be improving quite a bit.

I am curious to see what the schedule will look like and if these planes will be based in BUD. If they open a mini base I wonder if they will operate another flight between the two LCY rotations. Maybe WAW?

LOT have already announced WAW to LCY 12 weekly starting 07 January 2019.

I tried to research how many companies planned to move at least some of their IT/banking jobs to mainland due to Brexit. That said there is expectation that around 75,000 jobs will be moved. Any data on how many moved to Poland and Hungry? I think that might be part of LOTs strategy that there will be business to be made on these routes.

filipair wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

No connections at either end, not much of business traffic...how can they not lose?...

Doesn't the existence of 4 daily British Airways flights from Heathrow speak to the existence of business traffic? I'm willing to be proven wrong but this looks like an innovative move.

In other news, LOT AMS is expanding to service Embraers in Budapest. I have a feeling we'll be seeing more European routes out of BUD. Any guesses?

Not necessarily, as BA offers worldwide connections at LHR, while this flight is practically 100% O/D.

If LO starts to make too much of a noise at BUD for European flights, W6 and FR will eat them alive.

Terrible idea. No hubs and no brand recognition at either end. Vast majority of traffic is low yield and that is taken care of by LCCs and BA.

There's a reason why Eastern Europe is not a money maker from LCY.

lhrsfosyd wrote:

Terrible idea. No hubs and no brand recognition at either end. Vast majority of traffic is low yield and that is taken care of by LCCs and BA.

There's a reason why Eastern Europe is not a money maker from LCY.

Thank you for injecting some common sense into this thread.

MalevTU134 wrote:

filipair wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

No connections at either end, not much of business traffic...how can they not lose?...

Doesn't the existence of 4 daily British Airways flights from Heathrow speak to the existence of business traffic? I'm willing to be proven wrong but this looks like an innovative move.

In other news, LOT AMS is expanding to service Embraers in Budapest. I have a feeling we'll be seeing more European routes out of BUD. Any guesses?

Not necessarily, as BA offers worldwide connections at LHR, while this flight is practically 100% O/D.

If LO starts to make too much of a noise at BUD for European flights, W6 and FR will eat them alive.

How come W6 and FR didn't eat them alive in Warsaw? LO seems to know what they are doing and I am sure they did their homework before announcing this route.

Furthermore, LO operates something like five or six daily flights into BUD. Their brand-recognition must be quite strong especially now after all the promotion they got for launching Chicago and New York.

I'm not sure I agree that this is doomed to fail.

The profile of services at LCY has changed in recent years. You have services with TAP to LIsbon and Porto, Alitalia to Rome and Milan, BA to Berlin, Prague and Reykjavik as well services to Palma and Ibiza etc. With the exception of Milan not of these places are especially known for being hubs of international finance....

If anything city break destinations seem to work from LCY and Budapest is immensely popular with visitors including high end leisure (look at the amount of luxury hotels now in Budapest!).

If LCY can have services to Porto why not Budapest?!

Blerg wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

filipair wrote:

Doesn't the existence of 4 daily British Airways flights from Heathrow speak to the existence of business traffic? I'm willing to be proven wrong but this looks like an innovative move.

In other news, LOT AMS is expanding to service Embraers in Budapest. I have a feeling we'll be seeing more European routes out of BUD. Any guesses?

Not necessarily, as BA offers worldwide connections at LHR, while this flight is practically 100% O/D.

If LO starts to make too much of a noise at BUD for European flights, W6 and FR will eat them alive.

How come W6 and FR didn't eat them alive in Warsaw? LO seems to know what they are doing and I am sure they did their homework before announcing this route.

Furthermore, LO operates something like five or six daily flights into BUD. Their brand-recognition must be quite strong especially now after all the promotion they got for launching Chicago and New York.

Budapest is THE LCC stronghold in Central/Eastern Europe after Malév's demise. I am sure W6 and FR will go to great lengths to keep it that way. WAW has a home carrier (LO), which BUD now doesn't (or rather, W6 is the home carrier), so it makes it a bit harder to clamp down on LO at WAW than at BUD.

I guess time will tell whether LO know what they are doing or not. For now, let's agree to disagree.

Does BUD provide monthly passenger data? Wish we could know how LOT is doing with the transatlantic flights, but also the flights to WAW to get a glimpse into their operation there. On the polish forums people are asking, but so far no one has replied with any info. Of course I know that the passenger numbers are not the whole story, but also the prices to know if they are doing well

SRQLOT wrote:

Does BUD provide monthly passenger data? Wish we could know how LOT is doing with the transatlantic flights, but also the flights to WAW to get a glimpse into their operation there. On the polish forums people are asking, but so far no one has replied with any info. Of course I know that the passenger numbers are not the whole story, but also the prices to know if they are doing well

Well, historically, BUD-North America yields have never been good, be that to NYC, YYZ or CLE. Hence the several airlines (PA, TW, DL, AA (although they are now back from PHL), TS and MA) that have tried it and left, or ran it seasonally. And while ORD may give good loads, at least seasonally, to/from Poland, that will not be the case from Hungary. Toronto would make more sense than Chicago from Budapest...seasonally. But then again, yields are trash.

Does anyone know where they will get the E90 from?

Martijn

CrimsonNL wrote:

Does anyone know where they will get the E90 from?

Martijn

Brazil??

I'll close the door on my way out...

I can't speak to the future success of this route with any certainty, but there is actually more business traffic between London and Budapest than most people think. I know of at least two US banks (I'm sure there are more) that have a large part of their support functions there. Originally it was positions lower in the food chain that ended up in places like Hungary or Poland. But as banks in London have started moving more and more of their staff to lower cost locations, there are more senior positions and prominent functions going to Budapest.

CrimsonNL wrote:

Does anyone know where they will get the E90 from?

Martijn

4 E190s will be leased from Nordic Aviation Capital

PatrickZ80 wrote:

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1396575

Check the routes twice :~)

So BUD enters the club of airports with scheduled flights to 6 London airports. Interestingly each route has only one carrier:

LHR: British Airways
LGW: easyJet
STN: Ryanair
LTN: Wizz Air
LCY: LOT
SEN: FlyBe

eurowings wrote:

I'm not sure I agree that this is doomed to fail.

The profile of services at LCY has changed in recent years. You have services with TAP to LIsbon and Porto, Alitalia to Rome and Milan, BA to Berlin, Prague and Reykjavik as well services to Palma and Ibiza etc. With the exception of Milan not of these places are especially known for being hubs of international finance....

If anything city break destinations seem to work from LCY and Budapest is immensely popular with visitors including high end leisure (look at the amount of luxury hotels now in Budapest!).

If LCY can have services to Porto why not Budapest?!

Alitalia does not fly to Rome anymore. Milan is a major business center (both BA and AZ fly LCY-LIN).

TAP to OPO does not make a lot of sense to me... but it is their choice. You can even get cheap connections Spain-LIS-LCY all the time so I wonder how profitable LIS-LCY is.

Berlin, Prague, Reykjavik are flown with low frequencies, not 12 a week. IBZ is an expensive destination, and PMI also has its good number of 2nd holiday homes for well-off people. I could see LCY-BUD on BA Cityflyer 2 or 3 times a week, but a Polish carrier flying 12 (so I reckon 2 daily on weekdays) with almost 0 connectivity on the BUD side does not make a lot of sense to me.

Berlin is flown three times daily during the week and Prague is six times a week so not exactly low frequencies. LCY’s passenger mix is actually much more even now with business and leisure travellers.

LO, LCY and BUD would have all done a lot of analysis on the potential of the route and its likelihood of working. Will it? Who knows. But it's good to wish it well rather than second guess.

On a city-pair basis, over 1.5 million flew LON-BUD-LON in 2017, i.e. a PDEW of over 2,000 excluding seasonality.

[email protected] wrote:

LO, LCY and BUD would have all done a lot of analysis on the potential of the route and its likelihood of working. Will it? Who knows. But it's good to wish it well rather than second guess.

On a city-pair basis, over 1.5 million flew LON-BUD-LON in 2017, i.e. a PDEW of over 2,000 excluding seasonality.

Most are low-cost carriers though:

LTN: 574,074 (Wizzair)
STN: 390,608 (Ryanair)
LHR: 333,780 (BA)
LGW: 213,920 (easyJet)

Yeah the same sort of analysis when they opened BUD-KRK.

The reason why places like KEF, PRG and all the other leisure routes work is because they are low frequency and flown by a carrier from its hub with enormous catchment area and the point of sale overwhelmingly in the UK.

OPO is a new route so its profitability cannot be determined yet.

The fact that major European cities such as ARN, CPH, VIE and MUC haven't got/lost link to LCY should tell how hard it is to make money on LCY routes.

BUD maybe could have worked in the summer few times a week flown by BA. The route is also different to WAW as LO should do quite well on that one due to connection opportunities and stronger business links.

BUD-LON is more than twice the market size of OPO-LON.

The LON-OPO market is just 680.000 annual passengers.

2017 data:
- LGW-OPO = 339.649 pax 2017
- STN-OPO = 304.720 pax 2017
- LTN-OPO = 80.700 pax 2017
- LCY-OPO = just 771 o/r pax in March 2018.

and there is no LHR-OPO at all, so quite a different market.

SCQ83 wrote:

[email protected] wrote:

LO, LCY and BUD would have all done a lot of analysis on the potential of the route and its likelihood of working. Will it? Who knows. But it's good to wish it well rather than second guess.

On a city-pair basis, over 1.5 million flew LON-BUD-LON in 2017, i.e. a PDEW of over 2,000 excluding seasonality.

Most are low-cost carriers though:

LTN: 574,074 (Wizzair)
STN: 390,608 (Ryanair)
LHR: 333,780 (BA)
LGW: 213,920 (easyJet)

I'm well aware of that, but that wasnt the point I made.

Anyway, let us wish it well and hope for the best.

seansasLCY wrote:

Berlin is flown three times daily during the week and Prague is six times a week so not exactly low frequencies. LCY’s passenger mix is actually much more even now with business and leisure travellers.

PRG six a week IMO is low frequency. It does not allow "business trips" and it is a mid-morning flight which is off-peak at LCY. I checked some flights for the next few days and LCY-PRG is consistently cheaper than any of the 5 daily LHR-PRG on BA. Most of those "leisure" routes flown year-round on weekdays (like LCY-IBZ) are in those off-peak hours at LCY.

I was not aware TXL is already 3 daily but in any case Berlin is a larger market today (e.g. London and Berlin are two of the main tech hubs in Europe) than BUD and BA has a much larger brand awareness in both markets.

MalevTU134 wrote:

lhrsfosyd wrote:

Terrible idea. No hubs and no brand recognition at either end. Vast majority of traffic is low yield and that is taken care of by LCCs and BA.

There's a reason why Eastern Europe is not a money maker from LCY.

Thank you for injecting some common sense into this thread.

Why is it common sense? Just because one forum member's opinion is that there is no sense behind these flights?

LOT is a for profit organization, I do not think they would open expensive routes just to please some politicians. I get the feeling it takes 3 seconds for one to make an "assumption" about the justification of this new route, while in the real world there were probably teams preparing a business decision at LOT, whether or not opening this route. In my personal opinion - which will not represent the market - it is a great move and will be very warmly welcomed by O&D business pax and premium leisure travelers looking for one of the best schedules for a London city break.

With this new BUD-LCY flights, all the London airports are going to be served from Budapest, some days will see 14 direct flights between LON and BUD, total weekly flights are now surpassing PRG-LON and VIE-LON flights.

LON is the most popular destination from BUD, obviously a large portion of that traffic is connecting, however:
- After Budapest, London is considered the second largest city populated by Hungarians
- One of the largest O&D market out of BUD
- BUD and Hungary has been an up and coming destination for Londoners
- Despite Brexit, UK and Hungary have an expanding private sector interop. This is in regards service-companies running their support and backoffice centers in Budapest while the European HQ is located around London. Past years brought significant growth in business pax travel between the two cities, and honestly I don't see why would this stop now.

Looking forward to see the performance of this BUD-LCY route!

Cheers from Budapest!

We should also have in mind that currently LO doesn’t serve any markets in the UK other than LON, it doesn’t fly to Ireland at all.

I would say that before launching routes such as BUD-LCY LOT should focus on feeding their hub by connecting WAW to MAN, BHX, EDI, DUB.

There is something that I don´t understand about this route.
They are planning to start from February 2019, just one month before Brexit. Lot is a Polish airline. Will they have the rights to operate between Hungary and UK? Or will EU and UK airlines still benefit from a common open sky even after the UK has left the EU?
Thank you.

steman wrote:

There is something that I don´t understand about this route.
They are planning to start from February 2019, just one month before Brexit. Lot is a Polish airline. Will they have the rights to operate between Hungary and UK? Or will EU and UK airlines still benefit from a common open sky even after the UK has left the EU?
Thank you.

Don't ask those pesky questions, as some people here will tell you that LO, LCY and BUD (!!!) (as if the airports were part of any route planning) have thought this through, and can't possibly be wrong...

MalevTU134 wrote:

If LO starts to make too much of a noise at BUD for European flights, W6 and FR will eat them alive.

Not into LCY, though. I believe that this is the major imperative. The EJets not only have the range, but the performance capabilities to serve LCY, which itself has a niche to occupy. If the idea here is to connect the City of London, to other European capitals (especially in a post-Brexit capacity) then this is a smart move.

I don't believe that they are eyeing the same, mass markets that others are on. The costs are always going to favor the competitors on the trunk routes, and (as others have astutely noted) this is a queer case in which airport (capacity and capability constrained) meets aircraft (smaller, capable at LCY and likely operating at a higher cost per seat than competitors on similar London-Budapest routings) meet carrier (who probably operates at higher costs than competitors on similar London-Budapest routings). It's a silver lining, to an otherwise dark cloud, though - because what works at LCY will not work for the majority of the system.

I am cautiously optimistic that LOT will do well here, but hope that they also find successful strategies to also regain market share (and capital) that is being lost to competitors.

dean wrote:

With this new BUD-LCY flights, all the London airports are going to be served from Budapest, some days will see 14 direct flights between LON and BUD, total weekly flights are now surpassing PRG-LON and VIE-LON flights.

I find hard to believe that Budapest has more demand than Vienna to/from London. Maybe BUD has more VFR in London and Budapest today has an edge as stag party city (hence the +1M PAX/year in low-cost carriers between LON and BUD), but on the other hand Austrian can connect via VIE to Eastern Europe or Asia (e.g. there are cities like SJJ or SKP with no or limited connectivity to London for which OS is one of the top connection carriers).

steman wrote:

(as if the airports were part of any route planning)

Ever heard about airport incentives? I would say it is not unusual that negotiating airport charges (with airport reps) are part of the route planning process.

Airports play a vital role in working with airlines to determine viable routes. That is why there are huge events, such as Routes, that focus on this. And obviously many, many, many meetings between the two parties beyond such events. Airports can often provide key data, knowledge, and info to aid an airline's decision-making, plus proper discussions on incentives and charges.

Both parties play a role in route development. And obviously the airports benefit from a greater network, more growth, more routes, more awareness - stuff it can effectively sell for future development.

dean wrote:

steman wrote:

(as if the airports were part of any route planning)

Ever heard about airport incentives? I would say it is not unusual that negotiating airport charges (with airport reps) are part of the route planning process.

During my almost 10 years as being part of the European route development team for a major US airline, not once did we have the airport onboard in taking network decisions. The airports simply don't have the information available on the yields, costs, network implications, aircraft and crew utilisation et cetera to be able to judge the feasibility of a route. If they are willing to give incentives, great. Yes, in some cases that can swing an airline over...but it is always the airline weighing costs versus potential revenue.

In some regions like US or Western EU it could be a different scenario. But the airport in subject - BUD - had to put great efforts in reorganization after the bankruptcy of Malev.
BUD really struggled keeping long-hauls as LH Group, BA and AF-KL pretty much covered the market with their feeder flights.

The BUD-LCY deal could be part of the BUD-ORD and BUD-JFK deal. I can imagine Budapest Airport agreed to a huge discount on the LCY service. Sort of a "thank you" move for LO opening two long-haul routes that are new to the BUD direct network. If you check bud.hu airport fees table, you'll see their list offer for discounts are quite impressive, especially in the first year.

Taking all that into account it's a mutually beneficial deal.

dean wrote:

In some regions like US or Western EU it could be a different scenario. But the airport in subject - BUD - had to put great efforts in reorganization after the bankruptcy of Malev.
BUD really struggled keeping long-hauls as LH Group, BA and AF-KL pretty much covered the market with their feeder flights.

The BUD-LCY deal could be part of the BUD-ORD and BUD-JFK deal. I can imagine Budapest Airport agreed to a huge discount on the LCY service. Sort of a "thank you" move for LO opening two long-haul routes that are new to the BUD direct network. If you check bud.hu airport fees table, you'll see their list offer for discounts are quite impressive, especially in the first year.

Taking all that into account it's a mutually beneficial deal.

You are right, of course, on BUD and its reorganisation after the Malév bankruptcy. But BUD is not the expensive end in this... I am not criticizing BUD in trying to attract new services. In fact, I am not criticizing anybody. Just questioning the viability of this route, being the 6th airline on a city pair mainly made up of labourer and stag party traffic (several of the others being LCCs), without connections at either end, low brand recognition at both ends, flying into a high cost airport. But I could be wrong in my scepticism. Only time will tell.

Airports play a vital role in working with airlines to determine viable routes. That is why there are huge events, such as Routes, that focus on this. And obviously many, many, many meetings between the two parties beyond such events. Airports can often provide key data, knowledge, and info to aid an airline's decision-making, plus proper discussions on incentives and charges.

Both parties play a role in route development. And obviously the airports benefit from a greater network, more growth, more routes, more awareness - stuff it can effectively sell for future development.

I dont think you, along with the majority of a.net, understand how network planning works in the airline business. From time to time you have an airline that is on the fence about something that may be swayed by an airport by offering incentives but airports do not play vital roles in determining routes. I'd also add that routes and any other like events are nothing more than boondoggles most of the time.

Listen to Malev, he knows what he is talking about.

dean wrote:

steman wrote:

(as if the airports were part of any route planning)

Ever heard about airport incentives? I would say it is not unusual that negotiating airport charges (with airport reps) are part of the route planning process.

You´re quoting the wrong person. I didn´t write that. I asked how is the route going to be possible after Brexit, which will kick in one month after the route starts. Will LO have to set up a Hungarian venture to be allowed to operate between BUD and LCY?

Ok...my reply explaining in brief how route planning works was deleted... What was in there that was offensive?? And what is the point in contributing to this forum if your posts are deleted at the whim of some moderator? This really makes me consider leaving this site.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Ok...my reply explaining in brief how route planning works was deleted... What was in there that was offensive?? And what is the point in contributing to this forum if your posts are deleted at the whim of some moderator? This really makes me consider leaving this site.

FWIW - I still see it..

LOT767301ER wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Ok...my reply explaining in brief how route planning works was deleted... What was in there that was offensive?? And what is the point in contributing to this forum if your posts are deleted at the whim of some moderator? This really makes me consider leaving this site.

FWIW - I still see it..

No, there were two posts...the one where I stated that routes are not started because they are cool, trendy or because we throw darts at a map...that post is deleted....

Anyhow...

Hopefully this route and others will work out for LOT. They know they need to grow to make money and even though many are pushing for LOT to grow from regional Polish airports, I’m not sure LOT is willing to provide feed traffic to other airlines. With Warsaw getting really full Budapest is one way to grow until either Warsaw is expended or the new airport is built.

Looks like LOT is the new national carrier of Hungary