http://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/news ... brings-new

Looks like Spirit will be adding Guatemala City out of IAH and will be returning to San Salvador.

Spirit added several international cities out of IAH in early 2015 including San Jose CR, Managua Nicaragua, San Salvador, Toluca MX, Los Cabos MX, Cancun MX San Pedro Sula Honduras. The first 4 were axed after about a year, the latter 3 survived.

When they launched SJO it was extremely popular. The times even though "redeyes" allowed alot of people to take a weekend trip to the US. When they have 58% off deals, it made for a cheap getaway for money that you would spend in a night out.

I see these two from GUA and SAL departing full and a good money making bus for NK.

Explains UA's boost In Central America flights from IAH posted in this weekend's OAG thread.

Looks like they aren't redeye flights this time.

Propose GUA flight schedule
Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays

IAH 11:15 - GUA 12:58
GUA 14:05 - IAH 18:03

juanchito wrote:

Propose GUA flight schedule
Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays

IAH 11:15 - GUA 12:58
GUA 14:05 - IAH 18:03

Anyone run an analysis as to which flights these will connect to?

NK really ought to try MSY SAP. That’s a big VFR market and NK has as nice foothold in SAP

yellowtail wrote:

NK really ought to try MSY SAP. That’s a big VFR market and NK has as nice foothold in SAP

No, it isnt. Its 10 PDEW. Even when AeroMexico flew to MSY with the sole purpose of connecting people to SAP, the market went to about 18 PDEW.

Good to see some competition in that route, now we just need someone to fly GUA-ATL. Looks like B6 or AS's expansion in Central America is now more difficult.

Redwood839 wrote:

When they launched SJO it was extremely popular. The times even though "redeyes" allowed alot of people to take a weekend trip to the US.

UA IAH-SJO is 24x weekly nowadays, allowing up to 4x daily flights on Saturdays and Sundays.
UA as a response to NK IAH-SJO in 2015, launched a red-eye flight which is still in service.

Regards.

Beechtobus wrote:

Looks like Spirit will be adding Guatemala City out of IAH and will be returning to San Salvador.

Interesting incursion into the UA territory !
UA IAH-GUA is 17x weekly and UA IAH-SAL is 14x weekly.
AV SAL-IAH is also grabbing a piece of the cake at San Salvador International.
NK comes with limited weekly flights. However, I understand the different commercial model followed by Spirit.

Regards.

SJOtoLIR wrote:

Beechtobus wrote:

Looks like Spirit will be adding Guatemala City out of IAH and will be returning to San Salvador.

Interesting incursion into the UA territory !
UA IAH-GUA is 17x weekly and UA IAH-SAL is 14x weekly.
AV SAL-IAH is also grabbing a piece of the cake at San Salvador International.
NK comes with limited weekly flights. However, I understand the different commercial model followed by Spirit.

Regards.

But the question is how will UA react to NK's incursion.

AVENSAB727 wrote:

SJOtoLIR wrote:

Beechtobus wrote:

Looks like Spirit will be adding Guatemala City out of IAH and will be returning to San Salvador.

Interesting incursion into the UA territory !
UA IAH-GUA is 17x weekly and UA IAH-SAL is 14x weekly.
AV SAL-IAH is also grabbing a piece of the cake at San Salvador International.
NK comes with limited weekly flights. However, I understand the different commercial model followed by Spirit.

Regards.

But the question is how will UA react to NK's incursion.

UA already increased frequencies with 3x daily year round and 4x daily in select months to both SAL and GUA.

juanchito wrote:

Propose GUA flight schedule
Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays

IAH 11:15 - GUA 12:58
GUA 14:05 - IAH 18:03

Looking at September...

Northbound from GUA connects to SAN and LAS - potentially connects to ORD depending on MCT (ORD departs at 20:00)
Southbound to GUA connects from ATL, DTW, ORD - potentially gets MSY depending on MCT (MSY arrives at 10:15)

* I didn't have a chance to see if these connections work on all 3 days of GUA service, but they work on at least 1 of the days

Seems like NK just body-blocked a possible WN entry into more Central American cities.

Does anyone have IAH-SAL schedules? Maybe they just need some heavy maintenance done at aeroman that justifies a few cycles to swap aircraft? Granted IAH-SAL seems like a good move.

kevintarmac wrote:

Does anyone have IAH-SAL schedules? Maybe they just need some heavy maintenance done at aeroman that justifies a few cycles to swap aircraft? Granted IAH-SAL seems like a good move.

This are the proposed schedules

IAH 11:15 - SAL 13:09
SAL 14:05 - IAH 18:09

avi8 wrote:

Seems like NK just body-blocked a possible WN entry into more Central American cities.

Doubt it, there's enough traffic to the Houston Area and beyond from most Central American cities to cater both NK and WN. The one added benefit of WN is the free checked bags. If you show up at checking for any of these flights you will see people bringing back home a TON of luggage. Once saw a lady pay $600 on NK for 4 people bringing two bags each and oversized baggage.

SJOtoLIR wrote:

Redwood839 wrote:

When they launched SJO it was extremely popular. The times even though "redeyes" allowed alot of people to take a weekend trip to the US.

UA IAH-SJO is 24x weekly nowadays, allowing up to 4x daily flights on Saturdays and Sundays.
UA as a response to NK IAH-SJO in 2015, launched a red-eye flight which is still in service.

Regards.

I've taken that redeye as well, takes off around the same time. It wasn't full on that occasion, unlike NK's where there isn't a seat to fill. Massive price difference however.

avi8 wrote:

Seems like NK just body-blocked a possible WN entry into more Central American cities.

Well WN could set up shop at LAX and compete with AV, DL, and Y4. especially if they offer free two check in bags, people will take those flights in droves including myself.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

yellowtail wrote:

NK really ought to try MSY SAP. That’s a big VFR market and NK has as nice foothold in SAP

No, it isnt. Its 10 PDEW. Even when AeroMexico flew to MSY with the sole purpose of connecting people to SAP, the market went to about 18 PDEW.

Totally right, yellowtail. In fact, last night, I went to Ramón Villeda Morales to see my brother off on his way to DFW and the Spirit queue was simply massive (daily A321). The Houston flight was the only flight that survived of the first Central American expansion, and now with the Orlando flight, it simply proves that SAP came to be a money maker for NK, and forcing the legacies (AA, DL, UA, and even AV) to keep pace.

LAXdude1023, connecting through MEX is not something people value here. If NK gives it a shot for a nonstop from MSY to SAP, and with daytime flights (heck, even a red eye can work, as it would catch people from La Ceiba and the Islands, where is most Hondurans that live in the MSY area are from), you'll see good loads. You don't need it to be daily. The magical word here is: "directo". And that's what people value.

AASAP777 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

yellowtail wrote:

NK really ought to try MSY SAP. That’s a big VFR market and NK has as nice foothold in SAP

No, it isnt. Its 10 PDEW. Even when AeroMexico flew to MSY with the sole purpose of connecting people to SAP, the market went to about 18 PDEW.

Totally right, yellowtail. In fact, last night, I went to Ramón Villeda Morales to see my brother off on his way to DFW and the Spirit queue was simply massive (daily A321). The Houston flight was the only flight that survived of the first Central American expansion, and now with the Orlando flight, it simply proves that SAP has proven to be a money maker for NK, and forcing the legacies (AA, DL, UA, and even AV) to keep pace.

LAXdude1023, connecting through MEX is not something people value here. If NK gives it a shot for a nonstop from MSY to SAP, and with daytime flights (heck, even a red eye can work, as it would catch people from La Ceiba and the Islands, where is most Hondurans that live in the MSY area are from), you'll see good loads. You don't need it to be daily. The magical word here is: "directo". And that's what people value.

The data doesn't support it. MSY-SAP isn't a big air market. The connections between New Orleans and Honduras are historical not current. When you look at people claiming Honduran ancestry in New Orleans, the number is fairly big. But then when you look at the number of foreign born Hondurans as well as the number of people from Honduras immigrating to New Orleans, the numbers are tiny. Sorry, but thats the reality. Ill prove it.

Here are the top 10 communities in the US by people claiming Honduran ancestry:

Honduran
1. New York: 118,303 people
2. Miami: 92,673
3. Houston: 74,561
4. Los Angeles: 55,607
5. Washington DC: 53,357
6. New Orleans: 30,025
7. Dallas: 26,910
8. Atlanta: 21,091
9. Chicago: 15,981
10. Charlotte: 15,744

and here are the top 10 foreign born Hondurans communities in the US:

Honduras
1. New York: 86,845 people
2. Miami: 80,412
3. Houston: 67,812
4. Washington DC: 56,296
5. Los Angeles: 37,499
6. Dallas: 21,160
7. Atlanta: 17,261
8. Charlotte: 11,993
9. Boston: 11,434
10. Chicago: 10,026

Too many times we see people say things on an antidotal basis but it just doesn't hold up.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Too many times we see people say things on an antidotal basis but it just doesn't hold up.

And I will add this...too many times people hold up PDEWs as gospel on whether a route will work or not. I have seen the PDEWS proven wrong time after time after time (on both fronts). not because it is not showing up in the PDEWS doesn't mean the market is not there.

PDEWS are but a very small piece of the overall business case for any city pair. you must add in stimulation, seasonality, etc etc.

Don't forget NK has a Credit card rewards relationship with a Honduran Bank that helps to drive demand too.

Well, as a Honduran living on the motherland, and former airline employee, I can tell you in honor to the truth, that MSY is something that will work regardless what statistics can show, @LAXdude1023. I'm not trying to debate your statistics (as we say in Spanish: "las estadísticas no mienten" - stats don't lie), however, in this forum, and in several threads it has been said, a nonstop flight introduced on a market that didn't have it stimulates demand.

A very good example is AM. When Aeroméxico came to SAP 12 years ago, there weren't any nonstops to Mexico City since Copa offered them during the 90s and before that, since the TAN days. Now AM has a solid demand with a properly sized aircraft (E175) and went even twice daily last year. MEX is not a massive O & D destination as MSY is for Hondurans, so whoever gives it a shot (especially carriers with a strong reputation -and not like charter operations such as the one that was short lived last year), he will make money as MSY is a gateway for Hondurans living throughout the state of Louisiana (not only MSY), and to Mississippi and even Alabama and the Florida panhandle (where many Hondurans studying are based and who will not mind going on a bus just to save a few dollars).

Like I said, the magical word is "directo" and I might add another one:"barato" (cheap. Hondurans are extra price sensitive, hence the success of NK here).

yellowtail wrote:

PDEWS are but a very small piece of the overall business case for any city pair.

C’mon now ...

yellowtail wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

And I will add this...too many times people hold up PDEWs as gospel on whether a route will work or not. I have seen the PDEWS proven wrong time after time after time (on both fronts). not because it is not showing up in the PDEWS doesn't mean the market is not there.

PDEWS are but a very small piece of the overall business case for any city pair. you must add in stimulation, seasonality, etc etc.

Don't forget NK has a Credit card rewards relationship with a Honduran Bank that helps to drive demand too.

Rubbish. This is pure apologistic nonsense.

AASAP777 wrote:

Well, as a Honduran living on the motherland, and former airline employee, I can tell you in honor to the truth, that MSY is something that will work regardless what statistics can show, @LAXdude1023. I'm not trying to debate your statistics (as we say in Spanish: "las estadísticas no mienten" - stats don't lie), however, in this forum, and in several threads it has been said, a nonstop flight introduced on a market that didn't have it stimulates demand.

A very good example is AM. When Aeroméxico came to SAP 12 years ago, there weren't any nonstops to Mexico City since Copa offered them during the 90s and before that, since the TAN days. Now AM has a solid demand with a properly sized aircraft (E175) and went even twice daily last year. MEX is not a massive O & D destination as MSY is for Hondurans, so whoever gives it a shot (especially carriers with a strong reputation -and not like charter operations such as the one that was short lived last year), he will make money as MSY is a gateway for Hondurans living throughout the state of Louisiana (not only MSY), and to Mississippi and even Alabama and the Florida panhandle (where many Hondurans studying are based and who will not mind going on a bus just to save a few dollars).

Like I said, the magical word is "directo" and I might add another one:"barato" (cheap. Hondurans are extra price sensitive, hence the success of NK here).

Yes nonstop flights stimulate demand, but people grossly (and I do mean grossly) over estimate how much nonstop flights stimulate demand. Right now, its a 10 PDEW market. Best case (and I do mean best case), youll get 20-25 PDEW with a nonstop flight.

Again, there are very few ties between New Orleans and Honduras in the modern world. There were once upon a time but not anymore.

It might not be a good time to visit Mexico with all this border stuff going on right now.

Atlwarrior wrote:

It might not be a good time to visit Mexico with all this border stuff going on right now.

What does that have to do with GUA and SAL?!

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

Well, as a Honduran living on the motherland, and former airline employee, I can tell you in honor to the truth, that MSY is something that will work regardless what statistics can show, @LAXdude1023. I'm not trying to debate your statistics (as we say in Spanish: "las estadísticas no mienten" - stats don't lie), however, in this forum, and in several threads it has been said, a nonstop flight introduced on a market that didn't have it stimulates demand.

A very good example is AM. When Aeroméxico came to SAP 12 years ago, there weren't any nonstops to Mexico City since Copa offered them during the 90s and before that, since the TAN days. Now AM has a solid demand with a properly sized aircraft (E175) and went even twice daily last year. MEX is not a massive O & D destination as MSY is for Hondurans, so whoever gives it a shot (especially carriers with a strong reputation -and not like charter operations such as the one that was short lived last year), he will make money as MSY is a gateway for Hondurans living throughout the state of Louisiana (not only MSY), and to Mississippi and even Alabama and the Florida panhandle (where many Hondurans studying are based and who will not mind going on a bus just to save a few dollars).

Like I said, the magical word is "directo" and I might add another one:"barato" (cheap. Hondurans are extra price sensitive, hence the success of NK here).

Yes nonstop flights stimulate demand, but people grossly (and I do mean grossly) over estimate how much nonstop flights stimulate demand. Right now, its a 10 PDEW market. Best case (and I do mean best case), youll get 20-25 PDEW with a nonstop flight.

Again, there are very few ties between New Orleans and Honduras in the modern world. There were once upon a time but not anymore.

The only markets that can be “stimulated” by orders of magnitude are substitute leisure markets.

Atlwarrior wrote:

It might not be a good time to visit Mexico with all this border stuff going on right now.

Mexico is great. Id go right now in a heartbeat.

Like any place it depends on the area. I wouldnt go to Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo, Juarez, or Piedras Negras. But I love going to Guadalajara, Oaxaca, San Luis, Monterrery, or Mexico City. You just know where to go and where not to.

Honduras is far more dangerous than Mexico and I just came back from San Pedro Sula not to long ago and was fine. You know what to do and what not to.

jetero wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

Well, as a Honduran living on the motherland, and former airline employee, I can tell you in honor to the truth, that MSY is something that will work regardless what statistics can show, @LAXdude1023. I'm not trying to debate your statistics (as we say in Spanish: "las estadísticas no mienten" - stats don't lie), however, in this forum, and in several threads it has been said, a nonstop flight introduced on a market that didn't have it stimulates demand.

A very good example is AM. When Aeroméxico came to SAP 12 years ago, there weren't any nonstops to Mexico City since Copa offered them during the 90s and before that, since the TAN days. Now AM has a solid demand with a properly sized aircraft (E175) and went even twice daily last year. MEX is not a massive O & D destination as MSY is for Hondurans, so whoever gives it a shot (especially carriers with a strong reputation -and not like charter operations such as the one that was short lived last year), he will make money as MSY is a gateway for Hondurans living throughout the state of Louisiana (not only MSY), and to Mississippi and even Alabama and the Florida panhandle (where many Hondurans studying are based and who will not mind going on a bus just to save a few dollars).

Like I said, the magical word is "directo" and I might add another one:"barato" (cheap. Hondurans are extra price sensitive, hence the success of NK here).

Yes nonstop flights stimulate demand, but people grossly (and I do mean grossly) over estimate how much nonstop flights stimulate demand. Right now, its a 10 PDEW market. Best case (and I do mean best case), youll get 20-25 PDEW with a nonstop flight.

Again, there are very few ties between New Orleans and Honduras in the modern world. There were once upon a time but not anymore.

The only markets that can be “stimulated” by orders of magnitude are substitute leisure markets.

Indeed correct. Ill grant New Orleans has a leisure component to it, but there is very little VFR demand between Honduras and New Orleans anymore. New Orleans will always have some draw because its a tourist destination, but ethnic travel from New Orleans isnt really big to anywhere.

Didn’t Choice Aire do a “directo” to MSY recently? How long did that last?

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

Well, as a Honduran living on the motherland, and former airline employee, I can tell you in honor to the truth, that MSY is something that will work regardless what statistics can show, @LAXdude1023. I'm not trying to debate your statistics (as we say in Spanish: "las estadísticas no mienten" - stats don't lie), however, in this forum, and in several threads it has been said, a nonstop flight introduced on a market that didn't have it stimulates demand.

A very good example is AM. When Aeroméxico came to SAP 12 years ago, there weren't any nonstops to Mexico City since Copa offered them during the 90s and before that, since the TAN days. Now AM has a solid demand with a properly sized aircraft (E175) and went even twice daily last year. MEX is not a massive O & D destination as MSY is for Hondurans, so whoever gives it a shot (especially carriers with a strong reputation -and not like charter operations such as the one that was short lived last year), he will make money as MSY is a gateway for Hondurans living throughout the state of Louisiana (not only MSY), and to Mississippi and even Alabama and the Florida panhandle (where many Hondurans studying are based and who will not mind going on a bus just to save a few dollars).

Like I said, the magical word is "directo" and I might add another one:"barato" (cheap. Hondurans are extra price sensitive, hence the success of NK here).

Yes nonstop flights stimulate demand, but people grossly (and I do mean grossly) over estimate how much nonstop flights stimulate demand. Right now, its a 10 PDEW market. Best case (and I do mean best case), youll get 20-25 PDEW with a nonstop flight.

Again, there are very few ties between New Orleans and Honduras in the modern world. There were once upon a time but not anymore.

Trust me. If someone starts this, or, dares to start a nonstop to LAX (a major site for HN immigrants), he will send out of the ballpark. HN connectivity to the US relies mainly on those strongholds. NYC, LAX, MSY, MIA are a must to have all the dots connected.

AASAP777 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

Well, as a Honduran living on the motherland, and former airline employee, I can tell you in honor to the truth, that MSY is something that will work regardless what statistics can show, @LAXdude1023. I'm not trying to debate your statistics (as we say in Spanish: "las estadísticas no mienten" - stats don't lie), however, in this forum, and in several threads it has been said, a nonstop flight introduced on a market that didn't have it stimulates demand.

A very good example is AM. When Aeroméxico came to SAP 12 years ago, there weren't any nonstops to Mexico City since Copa offered them during the 90s and before that, since the TAN days. Now AM has a solid demand with a properly sized aircraft (E175) and went even twice daily last year. MEX is not a massive O & D destination as MSY is for Hondurans, so whoever gives it a shot (especially carriers with a strong reputation -and not like charter operations such as the one that was short lived last year), he will make money as MSY is a gateway for Hondurans living throughout the state of Louisiana (not only MSY), and to Mississippi and even Alabama and the Florida panhandle (where many Hondurans studying are based and who will not mind going on a bus just to save a few dollars).

Like I said, the magical word is "directo" and I might add another one:"barato" (cheap. Hondurans are extra price sensitive, hence the success of NK here).

Yes nonstop flights stimulate demand, but people grossly (and I do mean grossly) over estimate how much nonstop flights stimulate demand. Right now, its a 10 PDEW market. Best case (and I do mean best case), youll get 20-25 PDEW with a nonstop flight.

Again, there are very few ties between New Orleans and Honduras in the modern world. There were once upon a time but not anymore.

Trust me. If someone starts this, or, dares to start a nonstop to LAX (a major site for HN immigrants), he will send out of the ballpark. HN connectivity to the US relies mainly on those strongholds. NYC, LAX, MSY, MIA are a must to have all the dots connected.

Dont take this the wrong way because I have nothing against you, but I dont trust this opinion. To be frank, I think the opinion is wrong. All data shows to the contrary. The most important Honduran centers in the US (NYC, Miami, and Houston) are already covered. You have DC and LA after that but service isnt necessary to those places. DC-SAP is a bigger local market than LA-SAP by the way.

How could you possibly think New Orleans is in the same league with Miami, Houston, or New York on ties to Honduras????

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Yes nonstop flights stimulate demand, but people grossly (and I do mean grossly) over estimate how much nonstop flights stimulate demand. Right now, its a 10 PDEW market. Best case (and I do mean best case), youll get 20-25 PDEW with a nonstop flight.

Again, there are very few ties between New Orleans and Honduras in the modern world. There were once upon a time but not anymore.

Trust me. If someone starts this, or, dares to start a nonstop to LAX (a major site for HN immigrants), he will send out of the ballpark. HN connectivity to the US relies mainly on those strongholds. NYC, LAX, MSY, MIA are a must to have all the dots connected.

Dont take this the wrong way because I have nothing against you, but I dont trust this opinion. To be frank, I think the opinion is wrong. All data shows to the contrary. The most important Honduran centers in the US (NYC, Miami, and Houston) are already covered. You have DC and LA after that but service isnt necessary to those places. DC-SAP is a bigger local market than LA-SAP by the way.

How could you possibly think New Orleans is in the same league with Miami, Houston, or New York on ties to Honduras????

Pretty simple, my friend. New Orleans continues to be a place where a major Honduran diaspora lives. True, Katrina sent many away to Texas and other parts of the US, but still a sizeable community lives there. And not to mention that from this part of the operation, Hondurans still go to New Orleans for the same reasons the expatriates fly here. I used to work at AA. We had connecting traffic everyday to New Orleans. Probably up to 20 passengers on both flights to MIA. altogether, with slightly less on low season. UA could have shown relatively similar numbers on their IAH flight and even DL via ATL. You don't need it to be daily. Twice a week can do the job. Besides, the San Pedro Sula area on itself won't provide much of the demand, however, people from the Islands and from La Ceiba (off the Caribbean coast and within less than 3 hours away from SAP Airport by car) will provide a lot of the traffic a potential route will need. If I was NK, I'd give this a try first on a seasonal basis, and then, make the call for year round service.

Good chance of NK starting MSY-SAP once the new terminal opens in February. They have a serious gate crunch right now, with jetways being moved over to the new terminal. NK has quietly built up MSY, in case no one’s noticed. Up to 14 or 15 nonstop markets now.

Tell the lack of VFR demand out of MSY to CM. They have been doing quite well, just celebrated their three year anniversary here, and I’d say, judging from the bags tagged, 1/3 of the 73G is connecting to Honduras from PTY. AA and DL also push a lot of traffic, daily, to Honduras, from MSY.

2X weekly NK service would be a huge hit.

AASAP777 wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

AASAP777 wrote:

Trust me. If someone starts this, or, dares to start a nonstop to LAX (a major site for HN immigrants), he will send out of the ballpark. HN connectivity to the US relies mainly on those strongholds. NYC, LAX, MSY, MIA are a must to have all the dots connected.

Dont take this the wrong way because I have nothing against you, but I dont trust this opinion. To be frank, I think the opinion is wrong. All data shows to the contrary. The most important Honduran centers in the US (NYC, Miami, and Houston) are already covered. You have DC and LA after that but service isnt necessary to those places. DC-SAP is a bigger local market than LA-SAP by the way.

How could you possibly think New Orleans is in the same league with Miami, Houston, or New York on ties to Honduras????

Pretty simple, my friend. New Orleans continues to be a place where a major Honduran diaspora lives. True, Katrina sent many away to Texas and other parts of the US, but still a sizeable community lives there. And not to mention that from this part of the operation, Hondurans still go to New Orleans for the same reasons the expatriates fly here. I used to work at AA. We had connecting traffic everyday to New Orleans. Probably up to 20 passengers on both flights to MIA. altogether, with slightly less on low season. UA could have shown relatively similar numbers on their IAH flight and even DL via ATL. You don't need it to be daily. Twice a week can do the job. Besides, the San Pedro Sula area on itself won't provide much of the demand, however, people from the Islands and from La Ceiba (off the Caribbean coast and within less than 3 hours away from SAP Airport by car) will provide a lot of the traffic a potential route will need. If I was NK, I'd give this a try first on a seasonal basis, and then, make the call for year round service.

Houston had a much larger Honduran community than New Orleans long before Katrina. Dallas passed New Orleans since Katrina but I doubt it had to do much with the hurricane because Dallas got a fraction of the Katrina refugees that Houston and even Atlanta got.

Regardless of how many people you checked to New Orleans the market, averaged on a year round basis, is about 10-15 PDEW. It could grow in theory, but nobody will know how much. Flying SAP-IAD would be a much better bet because the market is so much bigger or perhaps SAP-DFW to feed the AA hub, but either of those dont really have a prayer of year round daily service.

I not completely opposed to an airline like NK flying SAP-MSY twice weekly, but Honduran ties to New Orleans in modern times are being grossly exaggerated. The Hondurans in New Orleans have been there for generations. New Orleans has the oldest Honduran community in the US, but that doesnt translate into ties in the modern world. Think of it like Albuquerque and Mexico. There are tons of people there of Mexican decent but very, very few that were born in Mexico or whose parents were born in Mexico.

SunsetLimited wrote:

Good chance of NK starting MSY-SAP once the new terminal opens in February. They have a serious gate crunch right now, with jetways being moved over to the new terminal. NK has quietly built up MSY, in case no one’s noticed. Up to 14 or 15 nonstop markets now.

Tell the lack of VFR demand out of MSY to CM. They have been doing quite well, just celebrated their three year anniversary here, and I’d say, judging from the bags tagged, 1/3 of the 73G is connecting to Honduras from PTY. AA and DL also push a lot of traffic, daily, to Honduras, from MSY.

2X weekly NK service would be a huge hit.

I dont care what you see in bag tags. I care what data shows.

CM works in MSY because of the breadth of destinations they have in Latin America. New Orleans is a huge shipping and marine market and CM feeds those markets in Central and South America.

jetero wrote:

Didn’t Choice Aire do a “directo” to MSY recently? How long did that last?

Choice Aire was doomed not because of demand but the carrier itself. At the end, UA, AA, and DL ended up carrying all of those stranded. It was a major mess, but not caused by the market.

I highly doubt this will last. Central America is already overserved in the local market, and UA (and perhaps eventually WN) will have loads of connections NK won't be able to access. Nonstop carriers will just match NK's pricing and there's not much more NK can do to fill the balance of their seats.

MaverickM11 wrote:

I highly doubt this will last. Central America is already overserved in the local market, and UA (and perhaps eventually WN) will have loads of connections NK won't be able to access. Nonstop carriers will just match NK's pricing and there's not much more NK can do to fill the balance of their seats.

My opinion as well.

MaverickM11 wrote:

I highly doubt this will last. Central America is already overserved in the local market, and UA (and perhaps eventually WN) will have loads of connections NK won't be able to access. Nonstop carriers will just match NK's pricing and there's not much more NK can do to fill the balance of their seats.

People said that about the SJO flights and here they are still 3 years down the line with very good loads.

UA/AA/DL will never offer $98 from CA (on ocassions as NK does). NEVER.

Redwood839 wrote:

MaverickM11 wrote:

I highly doubt this will last. Central America is already overserved in the local market, and UA (and perhaps eventually WN) will have loads of connections NK won't be able to access. Nonstop carriers will just match NK's pricing and there's not much more NK can do to fill the balance of their seats.

People said that about the SJO flights and here they are still 3 years down the line with very good loads.

UA/AA/DL will never offer $98 from CA (on ocassions as NK does). NEVER.

SJO is more leisure, which is much easier to stimulate with low fares. GUA/SAL fall into the category of higher yield developing world markets that sound like great candidates for LCCs and stimulation, but it never quite works--a 50% reduction in fare ends up being just a 50% reduction in revenue with minimal stimulation effect. This is why things like Fastjet, or Mexican LCCs flying transborder from secondary cities, as much as I want them to succeed, flop.

Judge1310 wrote:

I'll just add that, connecting through IAH yesterday and today from SAP, there were plenty more than "10-18 PDEW" to MSY. The demand is there. (For obvious reasons I can't share exact numbers but they're definitely nothing to scoff at...

PDEW is an average for the year ...

Although I must question how you ascertained this ... did you count bags on the bag claim or did you poll individual passengers?

I'll just add that, connecting through IAH yesterday and today from SAP, there were plenty more than "10-18 PDEW" to MSY. The demand is there. (For obvious reasons I can't share exact numbers but they're definitely nothing to scoff at...

I found it shocking how NK avoids VFR Mexico like a plague... did they really do that bad when they flew to TLC???

IAH-PVR/MEX/MTY/GDL even MID to FLL or MEX-LAS would fare well. Mexicans are now familiar with ULCC and NK is way better than Volaris or Viva..

MaverickM11 wrote:

I highly doubt this will last. Central America is already overserved in the local market, and UA (and perhaps eventually WN) will have loads of connections NK won't be able to access. Nonstop carriers will just match NK's pricing and there's not much more NK can do to fill the balance of their seats.

Well, the IAH flight to SAP survived. And it has caused UA to match NK's fares, and still, they're still both on the market. What do we make of this? Demand, my friend. Competition also stimulates demand, so do nonstop flying. AA, AV (TA before the merger) and NK have competed on the SAP-MIA/FLL market for 12 years so far. Our markets are not based on "PDEW" cold numbers. It is simple as this: is there a direct flight? Is it cheaper? They'll take whoever offers the ticket at a lower price, regardless of frequent traveler loyalties. And it goes mouth to mouth, and then everybody knows who is cheaper going the most direct. Guatemala and El Salvador have sizeable diasporas in the Houston area. It's simply one more option and one they'll take if it's less than UA or AV, even if the latter two lower their prices.

jetero wrote:

Atlwarrior wrote:

It might not be a good time to visit Mexico with all this border stuff going on right now.

What does that have to do with GUA and SAL?!

I think that he has the idea that Guatemala and El Salvador are part of Mexico