dcajet
Topic Author
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NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:21 am

EZE continues to be a success story for Air New Zealand. Effective Dec 3rd. the airline will introduce its 6th weekly frequency over the AKL-EZE-AKL route, operated with the 77E. NZ is one frequency away of its stated goal of flying to Argentina on a daily basis.

NZ030 AKL2015 – 1550EZE 772 x2
NZ031 EZE2355 – 0520+2AKL 772 x2

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -dec-2018/
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
JayBCNLON
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:51 am

Never would I fly this route on something that only has 2 engines. I think this is a crash that is only waiting to.happen. It’s just a matter of time.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:52 am

JayBCNLON wrote:
Never would I fly this route on something that only has 2 engines. I think this is a crash that is only waiting to.happen. It’s just a matter of time.


I guess you won’t be flying it then. Plenty of other long haul twin routes, not as remote as this one though.

Good to see the route doing well!

Next will be building frequency in the off peak, they had a 4th flight this past April, currently back to 3 weekly.
 
NZ321
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
JayBCNLON wrote:
Never would I fly this route on something that only has 2 engines. I think this is a crash that is only waiting to.happen. It’s just a matter of time.


I guess you won’t be flying it then. Plenty of other long haul twin routes, not as remote as this one though.

Good to see the route doing well!

Next will be building frequency in the off peak, they had a 4th flight this past April, currently back to 3 weekly.


Well, LA are doing SCL-AKL for years on the same equipment and also SCL-MEL and SCL-SYD nonstop so I'm not sure what the problem is with AKL-EZE, particularly. It's well within the 330 minute rule for diversions.
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JayBCNLON
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:16 am

LA s 787 SCL to AKL/SYD service is even worse in terms of risk. Half way between there really is no place to land. No Shemya island to land your 777 at and no Azores to glide your A330 to. 330 minutes can get very long.

I believe the Arctic Pacific/south polar route should not be allowed to be flown on just 2 engines, especially when it comes to aircraft/engines/batteries that are known to have systemic issues.

The probability of a catastrophic system failure without sufficient redundancy is just too high.
Last edited by JayBCNLON on Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
cskok8
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:28 am

The diversion airports are either the origin or destination
 
JayBCNLON
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:32 am

And that is a loooong ride on one engine and yet higher fuel consumption.
 
Bluebird191
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:47 am

JayBCNLON wrote:
LA s 787 SCL to AKL/SYD service is even worse in terms of risk. Half way between there really is no place to land. No Shemya island to land your 777 at and no Azores to glide your A330 to. 330 minutes can get very long.

I believe the Arctic Pacific/south polar route should not be allowed to be flown on just 2 engines, especially when it comes to aircraft/engines/batteries that are known to have systemic issues.

The probability of a catastrophic system failure without sufficient redundancy is just too high.


Technology is at such a point where these kinds of routes shown us that they can be flown safely with almost zero risk to safety and life. Apart from human error for Mt Erebus, there are multiple sets of eyes, double and triple redundancies for aircraft and wherever else - your concerns are far outwayed by modern standards and technology. These flights are perfectly safe - LA and NZ have proven so, time and time again. This is 2018 after all.
 
zkncj
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:51 am

JayBCNLON wrote:
Never would I fly this route on something that only has 2 engines. I think this is a crash that is only waiting to.happen. It’s just a matter of time.


Twin engine operations across the pacific have been an thing for years now, and yet to have been any major issues.

If your concerned about traveling on an 777/787 that far across water, maybe the below routes operated by 737s and A320 might be more of concern?

Image

If an A320 is able to safely making these Pacific Island runs from AKL, an much larger 777 can do the EZE run.
 
zkncj
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:02 am

cskok8 wrote:
The diversion airports are either the origin or destination


There are plenty of places in the pacific that you could divert too depending on routing, worst case on Southerly routing in southern summer an 777 could land at NZWD.

Image
 
Lufthansa
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:02 am

There's also the Australian and Chilean blue runways. Not ideal but you'd probably get the aircraft down. you may never get it off the ground without great expense but the Americans and others send down some pretty large military aircraft.
 
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PHBVF
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:04 am

JayBCNLON wrote:
LA s 787 SCL to AKL/SYD service is even worse in terms of risk. Half way between there really is no place to land. No Shemya island to land your 777 at and no Azores to glide your A330 to. 330 minutes can get very long.

I believe the Arctic Pacific/south polar route should not be allowed to be flown on just 2 engines, especially when it comes to aircraft/engines/batteries that are known to have systemic issues.

The probability of a catastrophic system failure without sufficient redundancy is just too high.


I get the sentiment of why you don't want to fly these routes however there is no reason a tri or quad would save you in these scenerios. If you have a look at this interesting list https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airline_flights_that_required_gliding you will notice that almost all of the full engine failures are caused by fuel exhaustion, an event that is unrelated to the amount of engines...
Other causes like volcanic ash are also not magically safe due to a larger number of engines. As a matter of fact after a total engine failure a 787 is the best glider amongst airliners with an estimated L/D of 21 (opposed to 15 for a 747) ;)

Regarding flying the Arctic routes with aircraft that have "systemic" issues with aircraft/engines/batteries: the DC10 had been grounded before it became the success that it was? How long before you'll get over the issues the 787 had since EIS? The battery containment system has been installed and proven to work for some years now. Besides ETOPS is mainly limited by fire suppression and the batteries are likely included in this too...
As for the RR issues I seem to recall that the ETOPS has temporarily been reduced untill the problem is solved... They aren't taking chances...
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zkncj
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:14 am

Lufthansa wrote:
There's also the Australian and Chilean blue runways. Not ideal but you'd probably get the aircraft down. you may never get it off the ground without great expense but the Americans and others send down some pretty large military aircraft.


NZPG (Pegasus Field) sees RNZAF 757-200s and USAF C17's on its 3000m ice runway.

Its surrounded by New Zealand and USA basses, and only 4-5hours from CHC for an rescue flight to collect passengers.
 
Max Q
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:44 am

The map depiction from ZKNCJ is not an accurate depiction of the tracks flown


They do not ‘curve up’ to the north as shown, rather to the south towards polar regions and far more remote


While statistics are on the side of the twins it’s true I agree with the poster


You can have all the systems redundancy in the world but when you only have one engine left It’s a long, long way from land or more importantly a usable runway for
FIVE and a half hours, it’s an extremely vulnerable spot to be in
Last edited by Max Q on Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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Max Q
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:48 am

zkncj wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:
There's also the Australian and Chilean blue runways. Not ideal but you'd probably get the aircraft down. you may never get it off the ground without great expense but the Americans and others send down some pretty large military aircraft.


NZPG (Pegasus Field) sees RNZAF 757-200s and USAF C17's on its 3000m ice runway.

Its surrounded by New Zealand and USA basses, and only 4-5hours from CHC for an rescue flight to collect passengers.[/quote


And how often does weather allow this
strip to be usable ?


Counting on this ice runway as an alternate is problematic to say the least, local conditions can change at a moments notice
to extremely adverse



It’s not like diverting to Cleveland
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


Guns and the love of them by a loud minority are a malignant and deadly cancer inflicted on American society
 
JayBCNLON
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:18 am

None of the arguments stated above really make me reconsider:
- as Max Q says: the routes on the map shown above do not curve towards the South Pacific islands. If anything they curve towards the South Pole.
- the low number of flights between Australia/NZ to South America (3 a day maximum) do not provide statistically relevant data -> btw: does anyone have the data on how many flights turn around on that route?)
- Landing the CX 777 at Shemya Island was not due to fuel exhaustion. If that incident had happened on a Australia to South America flight passengers and crew would have been doomed
- even a "dreamliner" cannot glide far enough to make it to IPC
- Isn't it LA that has brandnew 787s stored in the desert because of systemic issues?
- fuel consumption is related to air pressure, when you have to fly on 1 of 2 engines you have to drop altitude and then have a much higher fuel consumption (does somebody have more detailed information?) Especially on a westbound routing that makes it less likely that you will make it to your destination (SYD/AKL).

None of the counter arguments above really change the fact that Mas Q also highlights: it can be 5 1/2 hours to the next airport worst case. Passengers and authorities should require the most redundancy available - and a 2-engine plane just isn't that.
 
smi0006
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:01 am

Anyway....... back to NZ and EZE increasing frequency! Hope this goes daily soon, followed by another South American route. Should build AKL into a comfortable little hub.

How much of NZ Asia network connect to EZE? PVG? SIN?
 
Motorhussy
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:06 pm

Looking for to October when I do this route for the first time.
come visit the south pacific
 
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ZKNCL
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:28 pm

JayBCNLON wrote:
Never would I fly this route on something that only has 2 engines. I think this is a crash that is only waiting to.happen. It’s just a matter of time.


You're going to be waiting a very, very, very long time if you think that the safest mode of travel is going to have a crash on a very specific route.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:30 pm

JayBCNLON wrote:
LA s 787 SCL to AKL/SYD service is even worse in terms of risk. Half way between there really is no place to land. No Shemya island to land your 777 at and no Azores to glide your A330 to. 330 minutes can get very long.

I believe the Arctic Pacific/south polar route should not be allowed to be flown on just 2 engines, especially when it comes to aircraft/engines/batteries that are known to have systemic issues.

The probability of a catastrophic system failure without sufficient redundancy is just too high.


The probability of catastrophic failure is so remotely low that it likely will never happen. If you are so unlucky to have a dual engine failure in a twin, something disasterous has likely occured that would also have killed all 4 on a quad. Not to mention, 4 engines = double the chances of failure.

Case in point, King air vs PC12. Statistically speaking, you are far more likely to experience an engine related accident in the twin engine King air vs the single engine pc12, simply because management of the failure is generally far worse than the failure itself. Now, this doesn't translate to a jet, however, it speaks to the level of redundancy built into aircraft with fewer engines, and the safety measures in place to mitigate risk. (ETOPS, Engine trend monitoring and live telemetry, redundant systems, etc) Not to mention that twin on the route is likely a significantly newer design and built with more modern systems and safeguards.
 
B752OS
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:05 pm

What is the current level of service between Australia/New Zealand and South America? NZ AKL-EZE 6 weekly, LA SCL-AKL-SYD-AKL-SCL daily. QF SYD-SCL-SYD 4 weekly?
 
qf002
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:47 pm

B752OS wrote:
What is the current level of service between Australia/New Zealand and South America? NZ AKL-EZE 6 weekly, LA SCL-AKL-SYD-AKL-SCL daily. QF SYD-SCL-SYD 4 weekly?


QF is 5wk during the summer (4wk year-round) and you’ve missed LA’s 3wk SCL-MEL service.
 
dcajet
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:47 pm

B752OS wrote:
What is the current level of service between Australia/New Zealand and South America? NZ AKL-EZE 6 weekly, LA SCL-AKL-SYD-AKL-SCL daily. QF SYD-SCL-SYD 4 weekly?


And LA SCL-MEL-SCL 3x w (or 4x not sure now). Incidentally, LA Chile is bringing 2 ex SQ 777-212ER that were stored, I believe. at Alice Springs. These two are slated to replace temporarily the 789 on the SCL-AKL-SYD run as 40% of LA's 787s are grounded due to the RR engine issues.

cskok8 wrote:
The diversion airports are either the origin or destination


Actually no. There is CHC in NZ's South Island and USH in Argentins'a Tierra de Fuego, plus a good number of airports in both Argentina's and Chile's Patagonia that can accommodate a 777/787/747 without any issues: RGL, CRD, BRC, FTE, BHI, PUQ and PMC.

JayBCNLON wrote:
Never would I fly this route on something that only has 2 engines. I think this is a crash that is only waiting to.happen. It’s just a matter of time.


The safety record for this route speaks for itself. It has been flown continuously since 1980 and there have never been any issues/incidents of consideration. It is one of the most serene flights I have taken; nothing like the good ol' shakin' you can get flying, say, an EZE-MAD over the intertropical convergence zone slightly north of Brazil.
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
aotearoa
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:58 pm

The airlines always ensure there is suffice fuel at an point along the route to reach an enroute alternate or destination, 2 engines operating, one engine operating and/or depressurised. Your fuel argument is ridiculous.

The OEMs work closely with certifying authorities to prove the reliability of engines, airframes and the systems within them. There are special maintenance procedures (ETOPS/EDTO) that are in play and once all this is done, the aircraft systems (down to component level) are monitored for reliability and if they started to show a worse then planned reliability, would be forbidden for use or the EDTO/ETOPS time reduced e.g. a fuel pump that could be used up to an including 180 mins, but not beyond.
 
dcajet
Topic Author
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Re: NZ to increase EZE flights from Dec. '18

Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:59 pm

smi0006 wrote:
Anyway....... back to NZ and EZE increasing frequency! Hope this goes daily soon, followed by another South American route. Should build AKL into a comfortable little hub.

How much of NZ Asia network connect to EZE? PVG? SIN?


Excellent question - my money is on not much. EK, QR, ET and TK to a lesser extent, do a very good job with really attractive fares on the Argentina - Asia routes, with so many more choices than NZ. The heavy seasonality of the route tells us, I'd think, that the bulk of the traffic is made up of Aussies, Kiwis and Argentinians, Brazilians, etc. These countries are all in the Southern Hemisphere and have the same seasons.

As to more destinations, I'd say the only obvious one is GRU and NZ has said it is not possible to do it profitably with the 789. So, I guess it's a matter of waiting until the next generation of long haul jets make it to NZ (A350ULR? B777X?)

LIM could also be a good choice with *A associates AV & CM feeding traffic from BOG and PTY, It'd be a heavy leisure route, so not sure if the numbers would pan out for NZ.Seems to me Argentina and Chile have more business, sports and cultural ties with NZ and Australia than the rest of South America.
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