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Geminijets101
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Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:55 am

Let’s say the U.S. somehow overthrows it’s corrupted government?

Will any new airlines be possibly made?
Flights will resume?
Will new hubs be made in cities such as Maracaibo or Valencia?
Cíao
 
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adamblang
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:57 am

If the U.S. overthrows the Venezuelan government, there will be civil war as power players jockey for position. There won't be new airlines or flights or hubs in any substantial number. See Iraq and Afghanistan for examples.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:11 am

Please keep this topic to aviation.

Discussion of resumption of air service under a scenario of a more functional government is encouraged. But talk aviation, not politics.
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jmmadrid
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:04 am

Venezuela's financial problems will not disappear with the "end" of chavismo. The economy, even under a very efficient, business-friendly government, willl take years if not decades to recover.

Venezuelan airlines are facing four big problems:

1) Lack of easy and legal access to foreign currrency. How can you operate a plane if you do not have USD to pay for its maintenance, insurance, etc? It will be very difficult for a new government to "open the tap" because they would inmediately run off of any USD they might still have.

2) Unsuitable exchange rate. As I am writing this post, you need 3,500,000 (yes, that's three and a half million) bolivares to buy one USD, but this amount is likely to have increased by the time you read it. Bear in mind that the average monthly salary is less than that, and that is also the average price of a domestic ticket. How can you operate in a market where the vast mayority of your potential clients live on less than one dollar per month? How much can you charge for a ticket? OK, let's say that the -shrinking- middle classes make more than that. How much more? Ten times? Fifty times? We're still talking about 50 USD per month.

3) Very old aircraft (mostly MDs and 737-200/400s) that need to be replaced. This is connected to points 1 and 2. How can you afford new planes if you do not have easy access to USD and your home market can only afford to pay one USD per ticket?

4) Lack of pilots. Many venezuelan pilots have found jobs in airlines all over the world and are of course making good money elsewhere. How much can venezuelan airlines offer them to "tempt" them? Of course some pilots have stayed in the country, maybe they are or they feel too old to start a new life in a new country, and these are the ones flying the few planes left. But any significant growth would require a number of new pilots that will not be easy to find.

A second tier of problems would include infrastructure being in dire straits, small, dated and unsafe airports, corruption at all levels, crime, etc, Another big obstacle is that due to current politics, venezuelan airlines' access to some of their most important foreign markets (USA and Colombia) is very limited. However, I would imagine this one is easy to overcome if there is a significant change in the country's leadership.

Maracaibo is a huge city that should have a large O&D with many cities in America, hence its big potential. Valencia, although smaller, has a big catching area and also good potential. AVIOR tried to set up a hub there recently but they failed miserably, basically because the tiny airport can only handle a limited number of flights at the same time, making any medium or large scale operation unviable.

Venezuelan airlines are surviving by focusing on diaspora routes from Caracas: Miami, Bogotá, Panamá, Lima, Santo Domingo and Madrid. Domestic flights are reduced to an absolute minimum.
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SCQ83
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:11 am

For what is worth, Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas has started flights between Tenerife North and Caracas a few days ago (PU711/PU712).
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:35 am

Venezuela have gone so far down that if a business-friendly gov't takes office in CCS you will see an immediate turnaround in commercial aviation scenario. Significant foreign investment and VFR traffic driven by the huge diaspora all over the world will be the main drivers.

Once market conditions return back to normal (end of currency controls, bilaterals brought back, open competition in int'l routes , etc) we'll see significant market growth. My guess is:

Non-stop daily services to CCS by
US3 from MIA, ATL, IAH, DFW, JFK with some of them being more than 1xday
Non-stop daily serviles to CCS from MAD, LIS, CDG, FCO and FRA. IST would likely become a non-stop both ways.
FLL will be a sure add not only to CCS but VLN and MAR as well.
CCS to SCL, EZE, LIM, GRU and GIG stronger than ever driven mostly by VFR
In the mid-term I do see either EK or QR serving CCS. They would be in already if polític scenario was different.

Regarding establishing a strong local carrier with a wide network I don't see that happening in the short/mid term.
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upperdeckfan
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:02 am

SCQ83 wrote:
For what is worth, Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas has started flights between Tenerife North and Caracas a few days ago (PU711/PU712).


Do you have schedule, frequency, equipment type?

Thanks
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
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saleya22r
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:03 am

"For what is worth, Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas has started flights between Tenerife North and Caracas"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plus_Ultr ... %C3%A9reas

Three 343s. Never heard about the airline before. Can such a route be viable? The flights seem to be weekly(Sundays), MAD-CCS bi-weekly.
But a rapid research revealed that there's a substantial Venezuelan community on Canary Islands, mostly on Tenerife.
 
jmmadrid
Posts: 381
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:14 pm

saleya22r wrote:
But a rapid research revealed that there's a substantial Venezuelan community on Canary Islands, mostly on Tenerife.


And vice versa, there's still a substantial canarian community in Venezuela. Without a direct flight to Tenerife, folks need to fly all the way to Madrid and backtrack, adding at least 5 hours to a relatively short 6,5 hours hop.
Don’t confuse my personality with my attitude. My personality is who I am. My attitude depends on who you are.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1927
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:30 pm

saleya22r wrote:
"For what is worth, Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas has started flights between Tenerife North and Caracas"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plus_Ultr ... %C3%A9reas

Three 343s. Never heard about the airline before. Can such a route be viable? The flights seem to be weekly(Sundays), MAD-CCS bi-weekly.
But a rapid research revealed that there's a substantial Venezuelan community on Canary Islands, mostly on Tenerife.


Also, TFN is a good connection point to cities all over Spain.
 
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Geminijets101
Topic Author
Posts: 194
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:01 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
Venezuela have gone so far down that if a business-friendly gov't takes office in CCS you will see an immediate turnaround in commercial aviation scenario. Significant foreign investment and VFR traffic driven by the huge diaspora all over the world will be the main drivers.

Once market conditions return back to normal (end of currency controls, bilaterals brought back, open competition in int'l routes , etc) we'll see significant market growth. My guess is:

Non-stop daily services to CCS by
US3 from MIA, ATL, IAH, DFW, JFK with some of them being more than 1xday
Non-stop daily serviles to CCS from MAD, LIS, CDG, FCO and FRA. IST would likely become a non-stop both ways.
FLL will be a sure add not only to CCS but VLN and MAR as well.
CCS to SCL, EZE, LIM, GRU and GIG stronger than ever driven mostly by VFR
In the mid-term I do see either EK or QR serving CCS. They would be in already if polític scenario was different.

Regarding establishing a strong local carrier with a wide network I don't see that happening in the short/mid term.


a few years ago AA wanted to fly to VLN from Miami.
Cíao
 
dcajet
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:01 pm

jmmadrid wrote:

Venezuelan airlines are surviving by focusing on diaspora routes from Caracas: Miami, Bogotá, Panamá, Lima, Santo Domingo and Madrid. Domestic flights are reduced to an absolute minimum.


And EZE and SCL, both served by Estelar, using a HiFly Malta A343.

Reuters had a good piece earlier this week about the state of domestic flying in Venezuela:

* Only around 20 planes are in operational condition in Venezuela. Most of them are truly museum pieces

* Oftentimes the cost of a taxi ride to the airport is higher than the a domestic air ticket

* Because of the precarious nature of Venezuela's domestic operations (old planes, spares' shortage) airlines often sell one way tickets only

SCQ83 wrote:
For what is worth, Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas has started flights between Tenerife North and Caracas a few days ago (PU711/PU712).


The first newcomer to CCS since TK. I'd think this flight is mostly geared to Venezuelans leaving the country with one way tickets.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
clo1973
Posts: 155
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:58 pm

Avior, currently Venezuela´s biggest airline is currently on its way to open a subsidiary in Colombia. Summary info:

- Avior requested authorization to Colombia government last August.
- Name of the airline will be Gran Colombia de Aviacion (GCA)
- It will operate initially 737-400 & Fokker 50 airplane
- Hub will be CLO (Cali)
- Authorization to fly routes from CLO to MIA, GYE, LIM, CCS, CTG, BGA, CUC, EJA, PSO, NVA, FLA, PUU granted
- Currently GCA is under final certification steps with Aerocivil - Colombia, if everything goes well operation should start in September
- Hiring of staff has already started (pilots, flight attendants, maintenance etc..)
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:03 pm

dcajet wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:

SCQ83 wrote:
For what is worth, Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas has started flights between Tenerife North and Caracas a few days ago (PU711/PU712).


The first newcomer to CCS since TK. I'd think this flight is mostly geared to Venezuelans leaving the country with one way tickets.


Any newcomer to CCS is targeting ex-pats travelling to Venezuela for family purposes. As demand is much higher than offer airlines still serving CCS from Europe are charging insane fares for a Y ticket.

Tickets originating in CCS can only be sold in local currency that can not be converted due to gov't restrictions
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
dcajet
Posts: 5002
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:29 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
dcajet wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:



The first newcomer to CCS since TK. I'd think this flight is mostly geared to Venezuelans leaving the country with one way tickets.


Any newcomer to CCS is targeting ex-pats travelling to Venezuela for family purposes. As demand is much higher than offer airlines still serving CCS from Europe are charging insane fares for a Y ticket.

Tickets originating in CCS can only be sold in local currency that can not be converted due to gov't restrictions


True, but most people leaving Venezuela for good these by air days have tickets bought overseas by their relatives/friends there. And yes, there are the ex-pats too, and some business still - very limited - going on there.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
upperdeckfan
Posts: 1086
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 1:59 am

Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:09 pm

dcajet wrote:
upperdeckfan wrote:
dcajet wrote:


Any newcomer to CCS is targeting ex-pats travelling to Venezuela for family purposes. As demand is much higher than offer airlines still serving CCS from Europe are charging insane fares for a Y ticket.

Tickets originating in CCS can only be sold in local currency that can not be converted due to gov't restrictions


True, but most people leaving Venezuela for good these by air days have tickets bought overseas by their relatives/friends there. And yes, there are the ex-pats too, and some business still - very limited - going on there.


It doesn't work that way in countries without an open exchange market, let me explain:

Ex-pats change their USD or EUR on the black market and then relatives buy the ticket in local currency. Black market exchange rate is more than 10x official rate.
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
dcajet
Posts: 5002
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Venezuelan aviation

Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:41 pm

The case above is when the expat is in Venezuela visiting. Most emigres that don't return buy the ticket. say, in Buenos Aires or Lima where they live, for those loved ones left behind in Venezuela so they can reunite the family in the new country. Watch any of the thousands of videos on YT telling stories like that.
Keep calm and wash your hands.

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