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Polot
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:18 pm

The A350 still needs to burn through it backlog some. It is also a larger and more expensive plane. It will naturally receive less orders than the 787 and the A330neo.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:20 pm

I think he will be right. If you were interested in the A330NEO, it made sense to wait for Air Asia, because if they would have moved to Boeing, you got have seen a nice desperation discount from Airbus.
 
Strato2
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:51 pm

seahawk wrote:
I think he will be right. If you were interested in the A330NEO, it made sense to wait for Air Asia, because if they would have moved to Boeing, you got have seen a nice desperation discount from Airbus.


We have no clue about the discount Air Asia has got. All we know is that Boeing(787) has done very well recently against the A330neo and this with A330neo program costing 2 billion and the 787 still being well over 25 billion in the toilet on deferred costs. You do the math.
 
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keesje
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:38 pm

seahawk wrote:
I think he will be right. If you were interested in the A330NEO, it made sense to wait for Air Asia, because if they would have moved to Boeing, you got have seen a nice desperation discount from Airbus.


"Fresh Blow" material I think. Did Bloomberg respond already? Just arrived back from the show. Thnx mom1435 for summarizing, missed everything. :thumbsup:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
airbazar
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:47 pm

Polot wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Flyglobal wrote:
On the looser side:
The financials for Airbus and the A330Neo program Business case

:confused: Whaaa?
Sure you're not confusing it with the A380? The A330neo program cost airbus $2 billion to develop which means they broken even on the very first sale and every single frame they have sold so far generated a profit. In what world is the business case anything but a success?

We don’t know if every frame they have sold if profitable and that they broke even with the first order (I doubt they did). That all depends on the profit margin Airbus got in the sales, not just the total cost of the program. Early customers still got launch discounts (being a derivative doesn’t change that) and remember the plane is late, meaning airlines are getting some form of compensation.

True on all counts. But a ROI on 2bn is not all that difficult and with over 200 firm orders it's hard to imagine the program not being profitable overall. So IMO the business case has succeeded already. Maybe not as much as initially predicted but that doesn't make it a "losing business case".
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:10 pm

junlinwong94 wrote:
PAL considering to top up their A350 orders

It's true that PR has six A350 options just sitting there...but the A359 may be quite expensive for what they envision to do (and PR's not exactly awash with cash right now). OTOH, the A330N looks like something they could swing. Tie that with the 6 A340s PR needs to replace, TAP's visit to MNL the other week, the 6 UFO frame MoU at FIA yesterday and things get interesting. Add the inadvertent(?) inclusion (now removed) of the ~$259M list price and it gets really exciting. :goodvibes:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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seahawk
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:42 pm

Strato2 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I think he will be right. If you were interested in the A330NEO, it made sense to wait for Air Asia, because if they would have moved to Boeing, you got have seen a nice desperation discount from Airbus.


We have no clue about the discount Air Asia has got. All we know is that Boeing(787) has done very well recently against the A330neo and this with A330neo program costing 2 billion and the 787 still being well over 25 billion in the toilet on deferred costs. You do the math.


It does not matter, for an airline willing to order the NEO, it was quite simple. No orders coming in, so no delivery slots taken up, a major customer might jumping ship - so even more delivery slots and more desperation on the vendor side. Why should they sign a contract under such conditions, because waiting could only mean you get the deal you are already being offered or you get a better deal. Now more frames have been ordered, delivery slots have been taken up and the desperation on the vendor site will be reduced, so suddenly you must consider to get a worse deal than what you are offered in case others place a significant order.
 
gloom
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:58 pm

Devilfish wrote:
junlinwong94 wrote:
PAL considering to top up their A350 orders

It's true that PR has six A350 options just sitting there...but the A359 may be quite expensive for what they envision to do (and PR's not exactly awash with cash right now).


Still, quite a lot of airlines were either considering, or exercising options on A350 so far, so I'd say probably right plane at right price. For PR, it would be a good option to replace leased (or all, maybe?) 777s probably, as it was for CX or others. Slightly less seats, but dramatic reduction in costs. The only theory against is those 777s are still quite new, and selling owned planes is not necessarily the wisest, unless they're really afraid the oil prices will go up. Then, and only then, it might be reasonable. Depends what is more urgent problem now - cash, or costs.

Cheers,
Adam
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:39 pm

I thought PR might take its options as 35ks
 
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ACCS300
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:04 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Dissepointing number of 350's wasn't it ?


Not really, 30 with Firm, MoU and UFO which puts the orders well over 900 in total, not too shabby would have be considered phenomenal a few years ago.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:53 pm

gloom wrote:
For PR, it would be a good option to replace leased (or all, maybe?) 777s probably, as it was for CX or others. Slightly less seats, but dramatic reduction in costs. The only theory against is those 777s are still quite new, and selling owned planes is not necessarily the wisest, unless they're really afraid the oil prices will go up. Then, and only then, it might be reasonable.

Except that PR does not have the deep pockets nor the bargaining power that those other airlines do to drive the kind of deal that could justify letting go of their newish 77Ws. It seems highly likely it'd be more A359s going forward.



JerseyFlyer wrote:
I thought PR might take its options as 35ks

PR might, eventually, under the right circumstances...if the options were convertible and still valid. However, its CEO was on record that they were replacing the 77Ws on JFK and YYZ only for being too much plane for the job.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
zkncj
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:24 am

eamondzhang wrote:
Rumours saying that the UFO A350 order is from Air New Zealand.

Michael


NZ has already publicly said they will be making there 77E replacement order in 2019 so its an little early for them to have made this order.

Also seems a little weird to have order them so late into the airshow? NZ would have to make an release onto the NZX if they had comitted too them.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:34 am

zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Rumours saying that the UFO A350 order is from Air New Zealand.

Michael


NZ has already publicly said they will be making there 77E replacement order in 2019 so its an little early for them to have made this order.

Also seems a little weird to have order them so late into the airshow? NZ would have to make an release onto the NZX if they had comitted too them.

Maybe they signed a MOU or LOI and decided not to release their names while working on the details (like avionics, config etc)?

That's why I said it is a rumour and rumour only; only till will tell.

Michael
 
Pcoder
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:44 am

zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Rumours saying that the UFO A350 order is from Air New Zealand.

Michael


NZ has already publicly said they will be making there 77E replacement order in 2019 so its an little early for them to have made this order.

Also seems a little weird to have order them so late into the airshow? NZ would have to make an release onto the NZX if they had comitted too them.


It doesn't mean that they've already done a preliminary investigation into their options. They might have found the Boeing options inadequate for what they wanted and maybe Airbus gave them an offer that was too hard to refuse (With a limited time frame to take it up).
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:04 am

Pcoder wrote:
zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Rumours saying that the UFO A350 order is from Air New Zealand.

Michael


NZ has already publicly said they will be making there 77E replacement order in 2019 so its an little early for them to have made this order.

Also seems a little weird to have order them so late into the airshow? NZ would have to make an release onto the NZX if they had comitted too them.


It doesn't mean that they've already done a preliminary investigation into their options. They might have found the Boeing options inadequate for what they wanted and maybe Airbus gave them an offer that was too hard to refuse (With a limited time frame to take it up).

Also to remember NZ has 8 772ERs (sans the short-term OKI) while the UFO order for A350 is, you guess it, for 8 A359s.

Michael
 
zkncj
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:29 am

eamondzhang wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
zkncj wrote:

NZ has already publicly said they will be making there 77E replacement order in 2019 so its an little early for them to have made this order.

Also seems a little weird to have order them so late into the airshow? NZ would have to make an release onto the NZX if they had comitted too them.


It doesn't mean that they've already done a preliminary investigation into their options. They might have found the Boeing options inadequate for what they wanted and maybe Airbus gave them an offer that was too hard to refuse (With a limited time frame to take it up).

Also to remember NZ has 8 772ERs (sans the short-term OKI) while the UFO order for A350 is, you guess it, for 8 A359s.

Michael


There is some theory to that - just remember that every fleet replacement by NZ recent has increased the the size of the fleet it is replacing e.g. 5x 763's are replaced by 13x 789s.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:31 am

zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Pcoder wrote:

It doesn't mean that they've already done a preliminary investigation into their options. They might have found the Boeing options inadequate for what they wanted and maybe Airbus gave them an offer that was too hard to refuse (With a limited time frame to take it up).

Also to remember NZ has 8 772ERs (sans the short-term OKI) while the UFO order for A350 is, you guess it, for 8 A359s.

Michael


There is some theory to that - just remember that every fleet replacement by NZ recent has increased the the size of the fleet it is replacing e.g. 5x 763's are replaced by 13x 789s.

I know, you should say 8 789s as by the time they ordered the 5 extra, the 763s are gone already. And I don't think they need to order too many given they are getting 13 789s which are similar size (albert a bit smaller) than A359.

They also previously used 5 77Ws to replace the 8 strong 744 fleet so NZ does have a pretty good fleet planning as far as I'm concerned (to suit their demand).

Michael
 
jupiter2
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:08 am

eamondzhang wrote:
zkncj wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
Also to remember NZ has 8 772ERs (sans the short-term OKI) while the UFO order for A350 is, you guess it, for 8 A359s.

Michael


There is some theory to that - just remember that every fleet replacement by NZ recent has increased the the size of the fleet it is replacing e.g. 5x 763's are replaced by 13x 789s.

I know, you should say 8 789s as by the time they ordered the 5 extra, the 763s are gone already. And I don't think they need to order too many given they are getting 13 789s which are similar size (albert a bit smaller) than A359.

They also previously used 5 77Ws to replace the 8 strong 744 fleet so NZ does have a pretty good fleet planning as far as I'm concerned (to suit their demand).

Michael


You are still ignoring the fact that NZ like airlines in Australia, have to notify their respective stock exchanges when engaging in large capital expenditure programs.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:28 am

jupiter2 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
zkncj wrote:

There is some theory to that - just remember that every fleet replacement by NZ recent has increased the the size of the fleet it is replacing e.g. 5x 763's are replaced by 13x 789s.

I know, you should say 8 789s as by the time they ordered the 5 extra, the 763s are gone already. And I don't think they need to order too many given they are getting 13 789s which are similar size (albert a bit smaller) than A359.

They also previously used 5 77Ws to replace the 8 strong 744 fleet so NZ does have a pretty good fleet planning as far as I'm concerned (to suit their demand).

Michael


You are still ignoring the fact that NZ like airlines in Australia, have to notify their respective stock exchanges when engaging in large capital expenditure programs.


The Airbus press release doesn't say this was a firm order, could just be a letter of intent:
Airbus has signed an agreement with an undisclosed customer for the purchase of eight A350-900s.


As it doesn't look like a firm order, NZ might be able to withhold the information to the stockholders until all is settled.
 
zkncj
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:41 am

jupiter2 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
zkncj wrote:

There is some theory to that - just remember that every fleet replacement by NZ recent has increased the the size of the fleet it is replacing e.g. 5x 763's are replaced by 13x 789s.

I know, you should say 8 789s as by the time they ordered the 5 extra, the 763s are gone already. And I don't think they need to order too many given they are getting 13 789s which are similar size (albert a bit smaller) than A359.

They also previously used 5 77Ws to replace the 8 strong 744 fleet so NZ does have a pretty good fleet planning as far as I'm concerned (to suit their demand).

Michael


You are still ignoring the fact that NZ like airlines in Australia, have to notify their respective stock exchanges when engaging in large capital expenditure programs.


Which is now the weekend in New Zealand, so nothing can happen for at least two days.
 
jupiter2
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:26 am

zkncj wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
I know, you should say 8 789s as by the time they ordered the 5 extra, the 763s are gone already. And I don't think they need to order too many given they are getting 13 789s which are similar size (albert a bit smaller) than A359.

They also previously used 5 77Ws to replace the 8 strong 744 fleet so NZ does have a pretty good fleet planning as far as I'm concerned (to suit their demand).

Michael


You are still ignoring the fact that NZ like airlines in Australia, have to notify their respective stock exchanges when engaging in large capital expenditure programs.


Which is now the weekend in New Zealand, so nothing can happen for at least two days.


However, it wasn't when it was first announced at the show.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:13 am

jupiter2 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:

You are still ignoring the fact that NZ like airlines in Australia, have to notify their respective stock exchanges when engaging in large capital expenditure programs.


Which is now the weekend in New Zealand, so nothing can happen for at least two days.


However, it wasn't when it was first announced at the show.

When carriers made big capital expenditures, sure. But who told you that they have put the money aside and made a firm order? This is when they have to announce something without hiding in the dark. Google MoU and see what it means before making any comments.

NZ is also with history of making UFO orders before announcing them. See the 787-9 order that they placed in 2015 - wait, no, 2014, because contrast to what you said, they UFO'd order first in 2014 before announcing them in 2015.

Michael
 
jupiter2
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:56 am

eamondzhang wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Which is now the weekend in New Zealand, so nothing can happen for at least two days.


However, it wasn't when it was first announced at the show.

When carriers made big capital expenditures, sure. But who told you that they have put the money aside and made a firm order? This is when they have to announce something without hiding in the dark. Google MoU and see what it means before making any comments.

NZ is also with history of making UFO orders before announcing them. See the 787-9 order that they placed in 2015 - wait, no, 2014, because contrast to what you said, they UFO'd order first in 2014 before announcing them in 2015.

Michael


Fair enough.

There isn't anything in the Airbus press release to indicate if it's firm, LOI, MOU, or anything else we could abbreviate it to, so it's a bit hard to tell from that point of view. Though the Day 2 summary in this thread indicated it was firm.

It will all be revealed in due time.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:24 am

The Undisclosed order for 8 A350-900 is firm.

If it wasn't firm it would have been specifically mentioned in the press release.
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... -900s.html

And in the list of orders totals that Airbus presented at their closing press meeting there were 8 firm orders that weren't previously booked = this order.
 
RB211trent
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:30 am

It’s not NZ. Think again
 
Planesmart
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:59 am

Momo1435 wrote:
The Undisclosed order for 8 A350-900 is firm.

If it wasn't firm it would have been specifically mentioned in the press release.
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... -900s.html

And in the list of orders totals that Airbus presented at their closing press meeting there were 8 firm orders that weren't previously booked = this order.

Qualified order for a leasor - end customer/s yet to be disclosed?
 
NZ321
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Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Airbus Order Thread

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:10 am

Not NZ. Not yet. Wait a few more months for that one....
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