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LockheedBBD
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Re: Breaking: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:28 pm

Jayafe wrote:
LockheedBBD wrote:
...I'm expecting Bombardier to fully exit the commercial aircraft scene within the next two years.


I hope that's a joke


Many analysts believe that Bombardier will not invest any more money in the commercial aircraft sector in the future if Bombardier is left on its own (without a JV/partnership with another company). The CSeries was supposed to be the future of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft according to Bombardier management (before the Airbus JV announcement), but that is now with Airbus.

See:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... it-445894/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal ... -1.4365849
https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/1 ... -says.html


They have almost $9 billion in debt (https://smallcappower.com/analyst-artic ... tock-debt/), and it seems that they have no plans on refreshing the Q400 or CRJ and there are lots of competitors in the regional market (E1 family (Boeing), refreshed E2 family (Boeing), ATR, Mitsubishi MRJ, COMAC (for the Chinese market), Sukhoi/SSJ). Of course, Bombardier will still continue with their profitable business jet division.

Unless Airbus or another wealthy entity wants to make a new JV with Bombardier for regionals, I don't see how shareholders would tolerate or have any confidence in future Bombardier-only commercial aircraft programs. Bombardier will have to compete the CRJ against Boeing once the Embraer acquisition/JV closes next year.

According to Leeham, Bombardier loses money on every Q400 that they sell: https://leehamnews.com/2017/12/28/bomba ... weet-year/
That can't be good for business, or for shareholders.


Jayafe wrote:
I hope that's a joke, or a statement as brave as your "Embraer to still compete for the JetBlue order, wait for it" the day before the A220 order was announced. Happy to see a trend of poor aiming.


In early 2016, everybody thought that United Airlines was going to announce an order for the CSeries or E2, only to be shocked a little while later when United announced a deal with Boeing for 737-700s (instead of the CSeries or E2s) because they gave United a price they couldn't refuse. My motto is to wait for the official news instead of celebrating on rumors, things change on day by day basis. ;)

See:
viewtopic.php?t=600889


Jayafe wrote:

I'm expecting the 787 to be abandoned within the next two years, but I guess none of us will get it ;)


Boeing and Bombardier have polar opposite financial situations. One was recently bailed out with $9 billion in debt, and the other is worth $207 billion.



Disclaimer: I have no affiliation with any of Bombardier, Boeing, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Airbus, ATR, Sukhoi, COMAC, Leonardo.....etc.
Last edited by LockheedBBD on Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:53 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
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LockheedBBD
Posts: 542
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:34 pm

trpmb6 wrote:

I don't think Bombardier is going anywhere. But I'm kind of coming at this from a biased position where I'd like to see them make another investment at LearJet.



People seem to be confusing my reference to Bombardier making a "commercial aircraft exit".

Let me be clear, Bombardier Aerospace has 2 separate divisions, one is the business aircraft division (Globals, Challenger, LearJet), the other is the commercial aircraft division (CRJ, Q400, and formerly the CSeries).

Bombardier's business aircraft division is highly profitable and will not be going anywhere. However, I cannot say the same for what's left of their commercial aircraft division (CRJ, Q400). Lockheed made a commercial exit after the L1011 but they are still around today making highly profitable military aircraft. Likewise, Bombardier will still be around making business jets, however, unless Bombardier creates a partnership or JV, I don't foresee any new aircraft programs to replace the CRJ or Q400. I'd love to be proven wrong, but at this point in time, I don't see how they will be able to invest in new commercial aircraft programs by themselves.

Bombardier's best opportunity would be to partner with Mitsubishi on their troubled MRJ program. Perhaps Mitsubishi would even be interested in developing a turboprop via a J.V. for a future Q400 replacement. Mitsubishi has the money, and Bombardier can provide Mitsubishi with some extra skills for developing and certifying new aircraft and maybe even carbon fiber wings via Short Brothers.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:20 am

BBD has enough issues to fix before considering launching anything else new...


BBD's LRT products are becoming a major money and PR black hole... Their absolutely catastrophic handling of the new streetcar order for Toronto has done a great job of blowing any additional orders in Canada off the table. Stupid decision to move carbody construction to Mexico has cost them time, money and now they have to bring most of the delivered fleet back due to welding defects... well done BBD. Problems with workforce in Europe have caused them issues there as well.

Thankfully for them while heavy rail sales have dropped off somewhat, but aren't doing badly.

They need to fix those or get out of either Air or Rail totally... bringing the 2 together isn't working well anymore.
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: Breaking: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:04 am

Samrnpage wrote:
cheapgreek wrote:
MrBren wrote:
Again a desperate move from Boeing.


Why desperate? It allows Boeing to have a complete line of regional and mainline planes, E-175 to 747-8. The E2 planes already have a wide customer base worldwide and when the E series need replacement. the E2's will be the first choice of many carriers. Good move by Boeing.


What E2 wide customer base?


Oops, I meant the current E series.
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:43 pm

About the supposed rebrand of the E-Jets family:

Source: http://edition.pagesuite-professional.c ... 3581b9bc63

Image
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:48 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
About the supposed rebrand of the E-Jets family:

Source: http://edition.pagesuite-professional.c ... 3581b9bc63

Image


I like that, makes much more sense for Boeing to do this rather than Airbus. Airbus took just an aircraft program. Not a whole commercial division.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:54 pm

northstardc4m wrote:
...the new streetcar order for Toronto has done a great job of blowing any additional orders in Canada off the table. Stupid decision to move carbody construction to Mexico has cost them time, money and now they have to bring most of the delivered fleet back due to welding defects... well done BBD.
Thankfully for them while heavy rail sales have dropped off somewhat, but aren't doing badly.

Indeed they considerably messed up with the Toronto street car. BBD had to modify its existing streetcar design to make it narrower, have a low floor and still be capable of the tight turns required in downtown Toronto. Combining all those 3 requirements was a gigantic engineering undertaking.

The Thunder Bay project team struggled longer than expected to make it work. And also, while the TB workforce is extremely competent, BBD faced some productivity / costs issues in Thunder Bay. So the TB project team moved work/most wildings in an underused BBD plant in Mexico - but this ended up a total disaster.

So while Ontario's transit utilities indeed suffered the most, this situation is not representative of the BBD rail business outside North America, where sales (and deliveries) has been relatively successful and profitable. BBD also tends now to offer its existing product lines as opposed to heavy modifications..

Following this Toronto PR disaster, I'm indeed not very optimistic for future sales around here. I suspect BBD's Thunder Bay and Kingston facilities will eventually be sold or drastically scaled down.

Maybe Ontario / Toronto (as they seem to know better) could acquire those facilities from BBD?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:55 pm

A plot twist.


Brazilian judge freezes tie-up between Boeing and Embraer
https://www.ft.com/content/07dc47f6-f9a ... a24bd5409c

A Brazilian federal judge on Thursday issued an injunction freezing a tie-up between aircraft makers Boeing and Embraer until the incoming government of Jair Bolsonaro takes office next month, in a blow to the companies‘ hopes to close the deal this year.

Judge Victorio Giuzio Neto ordered the companies to provisionally “suspend any concrete effect of an eventual decision of the board of Embraer” to transfer the commercial jet unit of Embraer to Boeing “through a joint venture”.

The judge added that the change in government on January 1 “makes it advisable to avoid any concrete actions to take place in this period creating a factual situation of difficult or impossible reversal through the concretisation” of the deal between both companies.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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mercure1
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:00 am

Odd thing is the incoming government has been supportive of the deal so long as the defense portion of Embraer remains in Brazilian hands.
mercure f-wtcc
 
EBJ68
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:59 am

Could the judge be taking this action on his own initiative? I suspect not. I have to wonder what's going on behind the scenes relative to the inbound government. Things may not be as rosey as was once thought.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:11 am

Hopefully only a brief delay.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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UPlog
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:00 am

Sounds more like an activist judge, then an actual legal case.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:40 am

This is just so that this does not get tied up before the new president comes into power.
It is a cautious move to avoid a similar issue that just happened with the incumbent president giving a substantial increate in salaries for the STF just before leaving.
Because of the presidential change, everythging in Brasil will freeze until the new government is in place and can take stock. The transcript of his decision is clear.
If it was only due to the original request from those two BR MPs, it would havebeen barred.
Brazilian press is saying that Boeing and Embraer can carry out their merger process as usual but will have to defer announcement to 2019 - that' all.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:54 pm

Embraer is having a very tough time selling E2s. They need this merger to cut costs (e.g., economy of scale on rivits).

Place too many restrictions and the deal will be off.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
BREECH
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Place too many restrictions and the deal will be off.

Nah. Boeing will do anything to get that deal. They need Embraer a lot more than Embraer needs Boeing.
No friendship, love or respect unite people as much as shared hatred.
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william
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:42 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-c ... ector.html

Brazil President Michel Temer said he would leave the decision to the future administration, which takes office Jan. 1. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has said he is in favor of the deal.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:16 pm

Why is this thread still going? It was four months old, never accurate (Boeing and Embraer never announced a merger), and the discussion of a judge blocking the partnership between the two is already covered in another thread.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
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c933103
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:54 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Embraer is having a very tough time selling E2s. They need this merger to cut costs (e.g., economy of scale on rivits).

Place too many restrictions and the deal will be off.

Lightsaber

Well that's just a 1 month wait
 
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mercure1
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:05 pm

Embraer and Brazil’s government plan to challenge a Brazilian court order that prevents the company and Boeing from finalizing their proposed commercial-aircraft joint venture (JV)

http://atwonline.com/manufacturers/embr ... v-approval
mercure f-wtcc
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:12 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Embraer is having a very tough time selling E2s. They need this merger to cut costs (e.g., economy of scale on rivits).

Place too many restrictions and the deal will be off.

Lightsaber

Well that's just a 1 month wait

Is it only one month?

If it is, I have egg on my face and a. Shown as the old cynic. If longer?
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:56 am

hOMSaR wrote:
Why is this thread still going? It was four months old, never accurate (Boeing and Embraer never announced a merger), and the discussion of a judge blocking the partnership between the two is already covered in another thread.


The other thread seems to have vanished...
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
c933103
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:58 am

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Embraer is having a very tough time selling E2s. They need this merger to cut costs (e.g., economy of scale on rivits).

Place too many restrictions and the deal will be off.

Lightsaber

Well that's just a 1 month wait

Is it only one month?

If it is, I have egg on my face and a. Shown as the old cynic. If longer?

The report say, "until the incoming government of Jair Bolsonaro takes office next month," (January 1)
 
smartplane
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Re: Unconfirmed: Boeing and Embraer announce merger

Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:02 am

1989worstyear wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
Why is this thread still going? It was four months old, never accurate (Boeing and Embraer never announced a merger), and the discussion of a judge blocking the partnership between the two is already covered in another thread.


The other thread seems to have vanished...

Yet another thread disappears without explanation. Does an OEM (or their PR company) have editorial influence at A.Net? Can understand posts being merged, but complete deletion without explanation..............
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: Updated: Brazilian judge freezes tie-up between Boeing and Embraer until the incoming Brazilian government takes off

Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:11 pm

Time to change the topic title again ...

The injunction was suspended today and with good justifications as was to be expected.

Source: https: //g1.globo.com/ (only in Portuguese - translated):

Excerpts:
"The invasion of the Judiciary in the private autonomy of the parties causes legal uncertainty, which, in the context of the case under analysis, generates reflexes in the national and international markets."

He added that "this action would only be based on mere cogitations of alleged violations of public interests, with no concrete basis, perhaps driven only by purely ideological motives."

In this last part, the judge said exactly what I said in the topic that then simply disappeared ...

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