Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
mercure1 wrote:Yes the generational shift in models certainly must depress older types in the market once they arrive in sufficient quantities.
Also for curiosity any value on A340s? Just wondering what TN will get out of their frames once 787s arrive later this year. Suppose only scrap value.
mercure1 wrote:Also for curiosity any value on A340s? Just wondering what TN will get out of their frames once 787s arrive later this year. Suppose only scrap value.
Matt6461 wrote:Any data on NEO/MAX?
LAXintl wrote:-mercure1 wrote:Also for curiosity any value on A340s? Just wondering what TN will get out of their frames once 787s arrive later this year. Suppose only scrap value.
A340-300 - $3.6 - 14.5M, $110-275,000
With something like 30 frames stored, and 50+ scrapped doubt it has much value ultimately.Matt6461 wrote:Any data on NEO/MAX?
There is just some base valuation estimates. Not enough secondary transactions to establish market pricing. You really don't know what somethings value is until item is transacted. Give it another few quarters or maybe year.
A320NEO - $50M, $285-360,000
A321NEO - $58M, $340-410,000
737MAX8 - $52M, $310-370,000
737MAX9 - $54M, $320-385,000
A388 wrote:As always thank you very much for this data LAXintl. Do you have the values and lease rates for the following aircraft?
LAXintl wrote:A340-300 - $3.6 - 14.5M, $110-275,000
With something like 30 frames stored, and 50+ scrapped doubt it has much value ultimately.
Freighter
B744F – $12.0 - 32.0M, $200-350,000
B763F – $22.5 - 65.0M, $240-480,000
lightsaber wrote:Freighter
B744F – $12.0 - 32.0M, $200-350,000
B763F – $22.5 - 65.0M, $240-480,000
It looks like twins are signaling the end when 763Fs are worth more than 744Fs....
Lightsaber
aemoreira1981 wrote:lightsaber wrote:Freighter
B744F – $12.0 - 32.0M, $200-350,000
B763F – $22.5 - 65.0M, $240-480,000
It looks like twins are signaling the end when 763Fs are worth more than 744Fs....
Lightsaber
Also, the 767 feed stock is generally drying up, with available frames likely claimed, even frames that common sense would otherwise have said could have been scrapped. That said, American is likely going to provide feed stock, but it's unlikely anyone else will...DL is holding onto its frames until end of life, and LATAM is likely going to get freighters from its own stock. Otherwise, it's new-build 767s.
LAXintl wrote:-mercure1 wrote:Also for curiosity any value on A340s? Just wondering what TN will get out of their frames once 787s arrive later this year. Suppose only scrap value.
A340-300 - $3.6 - 14.5M, $110-275,000
With something like 30 frames stored, and 50+ scrapped doubt it has much value ultimately.Matt6461 wrote:Any data on NEO/MAX?
There is just some base valuation estimates. Not enough secondary transactions to establish market pricing. You really don't know what somethings value is until item is transacted. Give it another few quarters or maybe year.
A320NEO - $50M, $285-360,000
A321NEO - $58M, $340-410,000
737MAX8 - $52M, $310-370,000
737MAX9 - $54M, $320-385,000
flyaustralian12 wrote:LAXintl wrote:-mercure1 wrote:Also for curiosity any value on A340s? Just wondering what TN will get out of their frames once 787s arrive later this year. Suppose only scrap value.
A340-300 - $3.6 - 14.5M, $110-275,000
With something like 30 frames stored, and 50+ scrapped doubt it has much value ultimately.Matt6461 wrote:Any data on NEO/MAX?
There is just some base valuation estimates. Not enough secondary transactions to establish market pricing. You really don't know what somethings value is until item is transacted. Give it another few quarters or maybe year.
A320NEO - $50M, $285-360,000
A321NEO - $58M, $340-410,000
737MAX8 - $52M, $310-370,000
737MAX9 - $54M, $320-385,000
So if there are so many A340-300s stored + many A340-500s & -600s (European aviation in JAN 2018 reported they had acquired 10 from EY + have a number of ex Chinese examples) the value must be very low & so would the lease rates.
What's the scrap value ?
Ok, so they might be a bit thirsty, but if acquisition costs are so low, wouldn't a long haul low cost start up like World Airways, find the A340 the perfect vehicle to start long haul low cost ops, rather than talk of new & expensive B787s ?
An A340-600 can seat up to 475 apparently in all Y.
Planesmart wrote:so surely a current A330/340 operator could find some short term use for any A330/340 in for example peak season, when yields are high ?flyaustralian12 wrote:LAXintl wrote:-
A340-300 - $3.6 - 14.5M, $110-275,000
With something like 30 frames stored, and 50+ scrapped doubt it has much value ultimately.
There is just some base valuation estimates. Not enough secondary transactions to establish market pricing. You really don't know what somethings value is until item is transacted. Give it another few quarters or maybe year.
A320NEO - $50M, $285-360,000
A321NEO - $58M, $340-410,000
737MAX8 - $52M, $310-370,000
737MAX9 - $54M, $320-385,000
So if there are so many A340-300s stored + many A340-500s & -600s (European aviation in JAN 2018 reported they had acquired 10 from EY + have a number of ex Chinese examples) the value must be very low & so would the lease rates.
What's the scrap value ?
Ok, so they might be a bit thirsty, but if acquisition costs are so low, wouldn't a long haul low cost start up like World Airways, find the A340 the perfect vehicle to start long haul low cost ops, rather than talk of new & expensive B787s ?
An A340-600 can seat up to 475 apparently in all Y.
Given Airbus is the ultimate owner of most European stored, and some on lease, they won't part en masse. Better to store and depreciate. RR issues have helped to find temporary homes, and some strategic partners can still find short term homes for buybacks, mainly on an 'on demand' basis.
flyaustralian12 wrote:Planesmart wrote:so surely a current A330/340 operator could find some short term use for any A330/340 in for example peak season, when yields are high ?flyaustralian12 wrote:So if there are so many A340-300s stored + many A340-500s & -600s (European aviation in JAN 2018 reported they had acquired 10 from EY + have a number of ex Chinese examples) the value must be very low & so would the lease rates.
What's the scrap value ?
Ok, so they might be a bit thirsty, but if acquisition costs are so low, wouldn't a long haul low cost start up like World Airways, find the A340 the perfect vehicle to start long haul low cost ops, rather than talk of new & expensive B787s ?
An A340-600 can seat up to 475 apparently in all Y.
Given Airbus is the ultimate owner of most European stored, and some on lease, they won't part en masse. Better to store and depreciate. RR issues have helped to find temporary homes, and some strategic partners can still find short term homes for buybacks, mainly on an 'on demand' basis.
Planesmart wrote:ok so could it work for say one of the many dozens of A340s sitting around doing SFA, over some peak periods a year totalling a maximum of 3-4 months ?flyaustralian12 wrote:Planesmart wrote:so surely a current A330/340 operator could find some short term use for any A330/340 in for example peak season, when yields are high ?Given Airbus is the ultimate owner of most European stored, and some on lease, they won't part en masse. Better to store and depreciate. RR issues have helped to find temporary homes, and some strategic partners can still find short term homes for buybacks, mainly on an 'on demand' basis.
Yes. If they approach the right Airbus partner, assuming there are aircraft available with engine hours, or the friends and family 'on demand' PBTH deal.
LAXintl wrote:A388 wrote:As always thank you very much for this data LAXintl. Do you have the values and lease rates for the following aircraft?
Sorry don't have time to dig up all those models, though will tell you many you seek are either scrap value or not much more.
Here are a few never the less:
A340-600 $8.0 - 17.3M, $225-325,000
B737-300 $1.0 - 2.7M, $40-65,000
B747-400 $3.5 - 12.6M, $110-225,000
B787-8 $73.0 - 123.0M, $675-1,000.000
CRJ200 $1.0-2.4M, $25-45,000
A388 wrote:Looking at the numbers, I see the A320 (and A319 to a lesser extend) has increased in monthly lease rates compared to a year ago. Even the A343 has increased in value and lease rates compared to a year ago.Why is this?
flyaustralian12 wrote:ok so could it work for say one of the many dozens of A340s sitting around doing SFA, over some peak periods a year totalling a maximum of 3-4 months ?
flyaustralian12 wrote:Ok, so they might be a bit thirsty, but if acquisition costs are so low, wouldn't a long haul low cost start up like World Airways, find the A340 the perfect vehicle to start long haul low cost ops, rather than talk of new & expensive B787s ?
janders wrote:Also will be interesting to see how the popularity of 787/350 will effect values of other older long range models be it 330/777 etc.
janders wrote:I do know due to delays on NEOs and overall strength of market, some customers with scheduled lease ends on A32xCEOs and seeking to renew them have had to pony up more money as lessors know they can likely place rather quickly with others.
ScottB wrote:flyaustralian12 wrote:ok so could it work for say one of the many dozens of A340s sitting around doing SFA, over some peak periods a year totalling a maximum of 3-4 months ?
So, one key problem with this strategy is that most of the carriers which would be in a position to take on A340s on short-term leases also care about offering a consistent branded product -- so A340s with a generic cabin and livery would fail to offer a consistent passenger experience. Also, unless the carrier continues to operate A340s, there's quite a bit of expense in maintaining the ability to operate the type for just peak season -- from keeping pilots current to maintenance support/spares. And the number of A340 operators is dwindling.flyaustralian12 wrote:Ok, so they might be a bit thirsty, but if acquisition costs are so low, wouldn't a long haul low cost start up like World Airways, find the A340 the perfect vehicle to start long haul low cost ops, rather than talk of new & expensive B787s ?
Fuel isn't the only issue; 20-year-old A340s are also going to require a lot more maintenance than a new 787 or A350. Also, while you can get an A340 for cheap, you have to assume that the only value you'll get out of it is scrap/parts when it's no longer needed in the fleet. There's plenty of demand for 787s & A350s so it's reasonable to expect high residual value for both.janders wrote:Also will be interesting to see how the popularity of 787/350 will effect values of other older long range models be it 330/777 etc.
With the high production rates for the 787 and A350, I think we'll see the values of A330s and 777s decline precipitously.
flyaustralian12 wrote:Aren't A340/A330 common rated ?
aemoreira1981 wrote:lightsaber wrote:Freighter
B744F – $12.0 - 32.0M, $200-350,000
B763F – $22.5 - 65.0M, $240-480,000
It looks like twins are signaling the end when 763Fs are worth more than 744Fs....
Lightsaber
Also, the 767 feed stock is generally drying up, with available frames likely claimed, even frames that common sense would otherwise have said could have been scrapped. That said, American is likely going to provide feed stock, but it's unlikely anyone else will...DL is holding onto its frames until end of life, and LATAM is likely going to get freighters from its own stock. Otherwise, it's new-build 767s.
NWAROOSTER wrote:aemoreira1981 wrote:lightsaber wrote:It looks like twins are signaling the end when 763Fs are worth more than 744Fs....
Lightsaber
Also, the 767 feed stock is generally drying up, with available frames likely claimed, even frames that common sense would otherwise have said could have been scrapped. That said, American is likely going to provide feed stock, but it's unlikely anyone else will...DL is holding onto its frames until end of life, and LATAM is likely going to get freighters from its own stock. Otherwise, it's new-build 767s.
Delta keeps their aircraft until the point that they are too expensive to maintain and operate. They then fly them to the desert and use them as parts aircraft until they are no longer flying the type. After that the scrappers can buy what is left.
flyaustralian12 wrote:LAXintl wrote:A388 wrote:As always thank you very much for this data LAXintl. Do you have the values and lease rates for the following aircraft?
Sorry don't have time to dig up all those models, though will tell you many you seek are either scrap value or not much more.
Here are a few never the less:
A340-600 $8.0 - 17.3M, $225-325,000
B737-300 $1.0 - 2.7M, $40-65,000
B747-400 $3.5 - 12.6M, $110-225,000
B787-8 $73.0 - 123.0M, $675-1,000.000
CRJ200 $1.0-2.4M, $25-45,000
those 30 or so B733s that WN parked end of last year, must have really depressed the old B733 market. Does anyone know if those B733s are still all parked in desert somewhere ?
LAXintl wrote:Back by request, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.
As prior post, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.
B757-200 – $2.2 – 13.0M, $60-150,000
ptharris wrote:LAXintl wrote:Back by request, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.
As prior post, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.
B757-200 – $2.2 – 13.0M, $60-150,000
God.. I can remember when 757 was worth it's weight in gold. They were either flying or write offs from accidents. Seems like a bargin, but I'm going to guess they probably have absolute pile of hours on them.
I wonder if they'll take a post-dated check....
ptharris wrote:LAXintl wrote:Back by request, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.
As prior post, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.
B757-200 – $2.2 – 13.0M, $60-150,000
God.. I can remember when 757 was worth it's weight in gold. They were either flying or write offs from accidents. Seems like a bargin, but I'm going to guess they probably have absolute pile of hours on them.
I wonder if they'll take a post-dated check....
LAXintl wrote:Back by request, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.
As prior post, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.
Pax
A319 – $5.0 - 37.0M, $70-280,000
A320 – $2.0 - 45.0M, $50-330,000
A321 – $10.4 - 53.0M, $115-385,000
A330-200 – $16.0 - 90.0M, $190-680,000
A330-300 - $12.0 - 102.5M, $150-750,000
A350-900 - $112.0 - 149.0M, $920-1,135,000
A380 - $70.0 - 230.0M, $540-1,750,000
B737-700 - $6.5 - 39.0M, $100-245,000
B737-800 - $10.2 - 48.0M, $120-350,000
B737-900ER - $19.5 - 48.9M, $250-365,000
B747-8i - $177.0 - 160M, $640-1,250,000
B757-200 – $2.2 – 13.0M, $60-150,000
B767-300ER – $3.6 – 40.0M, $90-350,000
B777-200ER – $13.8 – 56.5M, $200-545,000
B777-300ER – $59.0 – 161.5M, $500-1,400,000
B787-9 - $105.0 - 142.0M, $780-1,150,000
CRJ700 – $6.7 – 15.4M, $70-190,000
CRJ900 - $7.4 – 25.0M, $90-210,000
Q400 – $7.0 – 21.5M, $60-190,000
EMB175 – $10.8 – 28.3M, $115-235,000
EMB190 – $11.9 – 35.0M, $155-280,000
ATR-72 – $4.7 – 21.0M, $60-180,000
Freighter
A330F – $50.0 - 90.0M, $450-740,000
B744F – $12.0 - 32.0M, $200-350,000
B748F – $102.0 - 170.0M, $750-1,400,000
B763F – $22.5 - 65.0M, $240-480,000
B777F – $101.0 - 159.0M, $700-1,200,000
The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuation estimates and is current as of April 2018.
Sources: IBA/ISTAT
LAXintl wrote:Back by request, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.
As prior post, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.
Pax
A319 – $5.0 - 37.0M, $70-280,000
A320 – $2.0 - 45.0M, $50-330,000
A321 – $10.4 - 53.0M, $115-385,000
A330-200 – $16.0 - 90.0M, $190-680,000
A330-300 - $12.0 - 102.5M, $150-750,000
A350-900 - $112.0 - 149.0M, $920-1,135,000
A380 - $70.0 - 230.0M, $540-1,750,000
B737-700 - $6.5 - 39.0M, $100-245,000
B737-800 - $10.2 - 48.0M, $120-350,000
B737-900ER - $19.5 - 48.9M, $250-365,000
B747-8i - $177.0 - 160M, $640-1,250,000
B757-200 – $2.2 – 13.0M, $60-150,000
B767-300ER – $3.6 – 40.0M, $90-350,000
B777-200ER – $13.8 – 56.5M, $200-545,000
B777-300ER – $59.0 – 161.5M, $500-1,400,000
B787-9 - $105.0 - 142.0M, $780-1,150,000
CRJ700 – $6.7 – 15.4M, $70-190,000
CRJ900 - $7.4 – 25.0M, $90-210,000
Q400 – $7.0 – 21.5M, $60-190,000
EMB175 – $10.8 – 28.3M, $115-235,000
EMB190 – $11.9 – 35.0M, $155-280,000
ATR-72 – $4.7 – 21.0M, $60-180,000
Freighter
A330F – $50.0 - 90.0M, $450-740,000
B744F – $12.0 - 32.0M, $200-350,000
B748F – $102.0 - 170.0M, $750-1,400,000
B763F – $22.5 - 65.0M, $240-480,000
B777F – $101.0 - 159.0M, $700-1,200,000
The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuation estimates and is current as of April 2018.
Sources: IBA/ISTAT
JAAlbert wrote:A380 - $70.0 - 230.0M, $540-1,750,000
I suspect you'd have to run a pretty full A380 every day of the month to afford a lease rate of $1.75 million/mo. I'd be a nervous wreck running that airline!