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musman9853
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Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:33 pm

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... ness-case/

Really liking what john ostrower has been able to do in only a few weeks running
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trpmb6
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:41 pm

Fascinating.

But I'm not paying 200 dollars for a subscription. He really needs to drop that down or find another pay model.

So he notes the emissions of the 767's engines as being the reason right? But did he consider the 767-2c with its updated PW engines? There was a rumor for a long time that FedEx was interested in 50 767-2C freighters. Nothing came of it but I imagine such an order would not be hard to fulfill on Boeing's side. Especially if UPS jumped on board.
Last edited by trpmb6 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:59 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Fascinating.

But I'm not paying 200 dollars for a subscription. He really needs to drop that down or find another pay model.

So he notes the emissions of the 767's engines as being the reason right? But did he consider the 767-2c with its updated PW engines? There was a rumor for a long time that FedEx was interested in 50 767-2C freighters. Nothing came of it but I imagine such an order would not be hard to fulfill on Boeing's side. Especially if UPS jumped on board.


Yeah his price point is just way too high, I can get NYT for half the price. But interesting development.
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:00 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Fascinating.

But I'm not paying 200 dollars for a subscription. He really needs to drop that down or find another pay model.


It says subscribe to continue reading but all the info is given at the top anyhow.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:11 pm

Well by 2028 FedEx and UPS will likely have all the 767-300 freighters they need and the USAF would not be bound to this agreement so the KC-46A program could continue even if Boeing could not sell the 767-2C commercially.

As such, I see this more as a move to sell NMA to FedEx (and other operators) as a 757-200 freighter replacement.
 
Lpbri
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:11 pm

There is no such thing as international law.
 
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neomax
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:20 pm

It’s absolutely ridiculous if Boeing is still trying to figure out if there's a business case for an NMA. It's obvious to anyone with a pulse that a clean sheet NMA is badly needed and there is clear evidence for it. They will have years after the build the pax variant to sort out the logistics of a freighter variant, but they haven't even gotten to that point yet. They just pushed back the NMA to 2019, and it is this same kind of backwards thinking that allows Airbus to keep swallowing the market with the A321 for as long as Boeing can't get their stuff together.
 
DarthLobster
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:22 pm

Jeez it’s ridiculous how skittish Boeing is on launching this new plane. Didn’t they just release a report about how the world’s going to need some 40,000 new planes in the next few decades? Widebodies will only be a small fraction of that, so they’ve clearly outlined the business case. This is NASA-levels of timidness and snail-like progress.
 
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:23 pm

res pay model: a lot of the value is to first readers, for this and for other aviation sites. It would be nice for airliners.net to have a premium channel that would have several aviation sources, but a week, a month or even a year after first published.
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trpmb6
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:27 pm

You have to remember, Boeing is racking in cash flow right now. They're quite content with their market share and they just had a tremendous airshow. Meanwhile they're watching airbus with their production woes, the struggling A330Neo (though it had a better showing thanks to Tony Fernandez than I expected at the air show) and the doomed A380. Boeing is certainly working on the plane, as are suppliers. They just haven't matured to the point that they can be confident in the pricing they want to target. They don't want another 787 pricing problem.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:33 pm

Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:37 pm

neomax wrote:
It’s absolutely ridiculous if Boeing is still trying to figure out if there's a business case for an NMA. It's obvious to anyone with a pulse that a clean sheet NMA is badly needed and there is clear evidence for it. They will have years after the build the pax variant to sort out the logistics of a freighter variant, but they haven't even gotten to that point yet. They just pushed back the NMA to 2019, and it is this same kind of backwards thinking that allows Airbus to keep swallowing the market with the A321 for as long as Boeing can't get their stuff together.


Its not just the"NMA". There are a lot of factors. Aluminum or composite? Single or double aisle? How much freight capacity (reported that Asian carriers want a lot, US, not so much)? Range (too much increases the price? Also, no reported engines.

If the plane is over-engineered, the price goes up and sales go down (Delta literally just warned Boeing on this). Boeing is trying to find the sweet spot to get the most profit.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:46 pm

Of the items you listed it's really just the freight capacity question that needs to be answered. And trying to understand Airbus's next move as well. All the other items have already been figured out.

I think Boeing is worried that if they choose to go a passenger oriented route and ignore the freight requests of the asian airliners that airbus will swoop in and cater to their requests and steal half the market share. Similarly if they go the other route and get too freighter happy they may not get the US airlines that want passenger only configurations.

If Boeing truly is courting FX on a NMA freighter this may indicate Boeing is looking to court the asian airlines more. Since this is where Boeing thinks most of the future growth in this segment is likely to be anyways this would probably be the smarter move. American carriers will still order the plane - just may not as many (depending on what Airbus puts forth) and Boeing may have found the winning ticket.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:52 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
If Boeing truly is courting FX on a NMA freighter this may indicate Boeing is looking to court the asian airlines more. Since this is where Boeing thinks most of the future growth in this segment is likely to be anyways this would probably be the smarter move. American carriers will still order the plane - just may not as many (depending on what Airbus puts forth) and Boeing may have found the winning ticket.


Would be kind of amusing to watch all of the A330 classic operators order NMA from Boeing and all the 757/767 operators order A321neoXLR from Airbus.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:54 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Of the items you listed it's really just the freight capacity question that needs to be answered. And trying to understand Airbus's next move as well. All the other items have already been figured out.


I agree most of the items seem to be figured out, but my point was that it wasn't a simple design. There were a number of choices that had/have to be made.

You are right, Boeing has Airbus at the top end of the market with a cheap aircraft (i.e., not completely clean sheet design) with the A330neo and a cheap aircraft at the lower end with the A321neo. Those two planes can really compress Boeing's market. Then again, Airbus thought it had the 787 with the A330 and A380...then we got the A350 (original), then A350XWB and the A330neo.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:59 pm

A prediction: Boeing will make sure the NMA passenger version can be converted to freight. LOL
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:21 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I think Boeing is worried that if they choose to go a passenger oriented route and ignore the freight requests of the asian airliners that airbus will swoop in and cater to their requests and steal half the market share.


They will not be able to do that with a single-aisle frame based on the A320 family. So they would have to clean-sheet a small widebody, as well.

Based on the most recent media speculation, I think Boeing may very well not design NMA to carry pallet freight in the hold, just containerized. As such, they will push the Asian operators to the 787 and RFP it against the A330neo.

Hence an NMA freighter would be designed to replace the 757, not the 767, with pallets and containers on the main deck and containers in the hold (as opposed to the current bulk loading on the 757).
 
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:22 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
neomax wrote:
It’s absolutely ridiculous if Boeing is still trying to figure out if there's a business case for an NMA. It's obvious to anyone with a pulse that a clean sheet NMA is badly needed and there is clear evidence for it. They will have years after the build the pax variant to sort out the logistics of a freighter variant, but they haven't even gotten to that point yet. They just pushed back the NMA to 2019, and it is this same kind of backwards thinking that allows Airbus to keep swallowing the market with the A321 for as long as Boeing can't get their stuff together.


Its not just the"NMA". There are a lot of factors. Aluminum or composite? Single or double aisle? How much freight capacity (reported that Asian carriers want a lot, US, not so much)? Range (too much increases the price? Also, no reported engines.

If the plane is over-engineered, the price goes up and sales go down (Delta literally just warned Boeing on this). Boeing is trying to find the sweet spot to get the most profit.

Im scared Boeing will overengineer the 797. It's what hurt the L1011 and the A220.
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Flyglobal
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:25 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well by 2028 FedEx and UPS will likely have all the 767-300 freighters they need and the USAF would not be bound to this agreement so the KC-46A program could continue even if Boeing could not sell the 767-2C commercially.


But wouldn't this suddenly bring an A338F into focus? Clear it's larger than any 797F, but I wonder how weak the 797 business case can get now with first Metal body in investigation and now the Freighter needs to make it.

At the end: they will remodel the 767 with an optimized fuselage, the Carbon wing, latest flight control, latest engines and ready is the 797, or 767Mk2. But this was already predicted by Airbus (Leahy?)

Flyglobal
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:47 pm

Flyglobal wrote:
But wouldn't this suddenly bring an A338F into focus?


Boeing would likely have a 787 freighter model on offer to address that part of the market for new customers.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:31 pm

The 797 would also be competing with much cheaper converted 330ceo's. Freight haulers are willing to buy used and fly older iron much longer than passenger airlines, ,and even though the 330 is significantly larger than the 767, I'm sure it could be made to fit into the network if the price was right.

The same market squeeze that is happening to the MOM in the passenger arena, is also happening with freight.
What the...?
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:38 pm

The NMA freighter will be marketed as a 757F replacement, not a 767F replacement. FedEx won’t be replacing 767s for decades, their oldest one is only 5 years old. Boeing is trying to get as many new 767Fs as they can sold right now that will be sticking around for years. Remember FX has almost 120 757Fs that will be getting very old (40+ years) by the late 2020s. UPS has 75. DHL has around 50. A330s, even cheap converted ones, are way too big to replace those (would love to see an A330F in markets like TLH though lol).

I’m not saying Fedex or whoever will order a new freighter to replace them, but those talking about the A330 are looking at the wrong plane. It will be A321P2Fs that would be the 797F’s competition. 797F would likely lift more further (probably better than 757P2F, with A321P2F probably slightly worse than 757P2F), obviously more fuel efficient, but of course would be much more expensive.

As a Stitch said by the late 2020s if the A330F is making inroads Boeing will probably be looking at a 787F by then.
 
hinckley
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:58 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.


Lol, No there isn't. Anywhere. Period.

The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.
 
danj555
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:13 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
neomax wrote:
It’s absolutely ridiculous if Boeing is still trying to figure out if there's a business case for an NMA. It's obvious to anyone with a pulse that a clean sheet NMA is badly needed and there is clear evidence for it. They will have years after the build the pax variant to sort out the logistics of a freighter variant, but they haven't even gotten to that point yet. They just pushed back the NMA to 2019, and it is this same kind of backwards thinking that allows Airbus to keep swallowing the market with the A321 for as long as Boeing can't get their stuff together.


Its not just the"NMA". There are a lot of factors. Aluminum or composite? Single or double aisle? How much freight capacity (reported that Asian carriers want a lot, US, not so much)? Range (too much increases the price? Also, no reported engines.

If the plane is over-engineered, the price goes up and sales go down (Delta literally just warned Boeing on this). Boeing is trying to find the sweet spot to get the most profit.


Its less about that and more about a paradigm shift in how planes are sold and maintained. 30% of lifetime costs are the initial sale. Boeing wants to structure newly designed aircraft to capture some of the other 70%. This article talks about it:
https://skift.com/2018/07/17/boeing-may ... ng-planes/
 
nry
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:21 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Fascinating.

But I'm not paying 200 dollars for a subscription. He really needs to drop that down or find another pay model.


Yeah his price point is just way too high, I can get NYT for half the price. But interesting development.


$200/year is a drop in the bucket as a business expense. I don't think the individual enthusiast is his target market. This type of business media is growing in technology (e.g., The Information, Stratechery). His $200/year is actually middle of the road. More power to him.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:30 pm

hinckley wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.


Lol, No there isn't. Anywhere. Period.

The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.


Sigh. There's a lot more than the UN and ICAO. International law refers to a broad set of multilateral treaties - things like guaranteeing access through the Strait of Gibraltar.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:32 pm

hinckley wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.


Lol, No there isn't. Anywhere. Period.

The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.


Because a member can withdraw does not mean there is not "international law." But, to help you understand, here is the Restatement (Third) on Foreign Relations Law on the Sources of International Law:

•(1) A rule of international law is one that has been accepted as such by the international community of states

(a) in the form of customary law;

(b) by international agreement; or

(c) by derivation from general principles common to the major legal systems of the world.

•(2) Customary international law results from a general and consistent practice of states followed by them from a sense of legal obligation.

•(3) International agreements create law for the states parties thereto and may lead to the creation of customary international law when such agreements are intended for adherence by states generally and are in fact widely accepted.

•(4) General principles common to the major legal systems, even if not incorporated or reflected in customary law or international agreement, may be invoked as supplementary rules of international law where appropriate.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:34 pm

nry wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Fascinating.

But I'm not paying 200 dollars for a subscription. He really needs to drop that down or find another pay model.


Yeah his price point is just way too high, I can get NYT for half the price. But interesting development.


$200/year is a drop in the bucket as a business expense. I don't think the individual enthusiast is his target market. This type of business media is growing in technology (e.g., The Information, Stratechery). His $200/year is actually middle of the road. More power to him.


Fair point, I'm just selfishly thinking of my subscriptions! :lol:
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:52 pm

neomax wrote:
It’s absolutely ridiculous if Boeing is still trying to figure out if there's a business case for an NMA. It's obvious to anyone with a pulse that a clean sheet NMA is badly needed and there is clear evidence for it. They will have years after the build the pax variant to sort out the logistics of a freighter variant, but they haven't even gotten to that point yet. They just pushed back the NMA to 2019, and it is this same kind of backwards thinking that allows Airbus to keep swallowing the market with the A321 for as long as Boeing can't get their stuff together.



Rushing something is what gets you in trouble, in any business (hint: 787). They should take all the time the need to get it right. Oh and by the way, the A321 isn't just swallowing market share. The
737-10MAX is catching on and the 738MAX is killin' it. There will still be a plenty big market for the NMA - after all, even the A321's that are in service will need replacing.

It's important that they take their time and get it right, not just waste money and cause a colossal issue like they did with the 787.
Whatever
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:57 pm

hinckley wrote:
The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.


The current occupant will not be in Office in 2028.
 
777PHX
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:58 pm

nry wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Fascinating.

But I'm not paying 200 dollars for a subscription. He really needs to drop that down or find another pay model.


Yeah his price point is just way too high, I can get NYT for half the price. But interesting development.


$200/year is a drop in the bucket as a business expense. I don't think the individual enthusiast is his target market. This type of business media is growing in technology (e.g., The Information, Stratechery). His $200/year is actually middle of the road. More power to him.


Why would I pay $200 for something I can get on Twitter for free? I respect Ostrower, but it's just a glorified blog.
 
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c933103
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:06 pm

hinckley wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.


Lol, No there isn't. Anywhere. Period.

The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.

Even if the US is somehow quitting ICAO, all other countries in the world will still be following those regulations. Good luck keeping a widebody production line open solely by domestic order.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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c933103
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:12 pm

And so... passenger version alone cannot justify the launch of NMA, and now freighter version is needed to make the business case?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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HPRamper
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:16 pm

Stitch wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I think Boeing is worried that if they choose to go a passenger oriented route and ignore the freight requests of the asian airliners that airbus will swoop in and cater to their requests and steal half the market share.


They will not be able to do that with a single-aisle frame based on the A320 family. So they would have to clean-sheet a small widebody, as well.

Based on the most recent media speculation, I think Boeing may very well not design NMA to carry pallet freight in the hold, just containerized. As such, they will push the Asian operators to the 787 and RFP it against the A330neo.

Hence an NMA freighter would be designed to replace the 757, not the 767, with pallets and containers on the main deck and containers in the hold (as opposed to the current bulk loading on the 757).


As a tenured FedEx employee who deals directly with the aircraft, flight crews and load planning on a daily basis, I would say this is what FX wants and needs.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:18 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.


No, there is not. What gets referred to as "international law" is really an informal way of referencing the collection of treaties each nation individually agrees to.

Each sovereign nation sets its own laws. No outside body has authority to impose laws upon them, much less to directly enforce them directly. Instead, each nation decides whether or not to assent to the treaty. Typically a nation will first officially decide to ratify a treaty, then will pass its own laws actually enacting the terms of the treaty. Enforcement is typically handled by other member nations denying benefits or enacting penalties or remedies in their dealings with violators agreed to under the treaty. For example, tariffs are a common remedy sought under the treaties overseen by the WTO.

The ICAO was established by the Chicago Convention on International Aviation, originally agreed to by 52 nations, and now expanded to 191 nations.

The US is a member, and normally abides by standards the ICAO sets. What I can't tell you is to what degree the US can opt out of such standards without being subject to limitations on which nations our airlines fly to. Hypothetically, we could continue to allow 767's to be sold, and Fed Ex could just keep flying them within the US.
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
hinckley wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Lol. Yes, there is.


Lol, No there isn't. Anywhere. Period.

The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.

Even if the US is somehow quitting ICAO, all other countries in the world will still be following those regulations. Good luck keeping a widebody production line open solely by domestic order.

The 767 line as is basically solely open by domestic order (USAF, FX, and UPS). Foreign 767F orders are just a drop in the bucket right now.

This whole emissions argument is just a side show. I doubt Boeing is under any illusions that the 767F will still be a relatively strong seller 10 years from now. They were caught off guard by the plane’s current mini resurgence.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:35 pm

777PHX wrote:
Why would I pay $200 for something I can get on Twitter for free? I respect Ostrower, but it's just a glorified blog.


You don't have to. But since the twitter users you're relying on themselves rely on sources like Jon Ostrower, what you get from Twitter will be reduced, too, if nobody subscribes and Jon gives up.

However, the twitter users probably don't get that info directly. They're probably reading it in other news sources that subscribe to people who have their own network of sources, like Jon. I expect other reporters, investment analysts, and suppliers are where Jon is likely to get most of his revenue. I doubt very many enthusiasts will subscribe.

c933103 wrote:
And so... passenger version alone cannot justify the launch of NMA, and now freighter version is needed to make the business case?


You're reading this as suggesting the business case doesn't close with only a passenger version. That's far from clear. All this really says is that Boeing is pitching the aircraft for freighter use.

My presumed interpretation of that is they're examining whether tweaking the design to be favorable to freight use improves the business case.

That presents a range of possible outcomes:

It improves the business case from good to better (program proceeds).
It improves the business case from bad to good (program proceeds).
It improves the business case from terrible to bad (give up on program).
It worsens the business case* (pax variant proceeds).

* If changes required to support a freighter variant reduce the passenger appeal more than they increase freighter appeal.

Also, keep in mind, launch doesn't happen the moment the business case reaches good status. It ideally happens when Boeing believes their product definition and the market conditions are at their best. They could have a good business case that will make them money, but also a high degree of confidence that further refinement will make them even more money if they spend another 6 months on it.
 
JHwk
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:43 pm

I still like the idea of a single-deck, “combi” 8-abreast ovoid without a real lower cargo hold to be able to address whatever needs are required.
 
texl1649
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:48 pm

The 797 will have over a thousand orders before it flies. Everything else about this is just drama and marketing (but I repeat myself.)
 
CX747
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:55 am

HPRamper wrote:
Stitch wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I think Boeing is worried that if they choose to go a passenger oriented route and ignore the freight requests of the asian airliners that airbus will swoop in and cater to their requests and steal half the market share.


They will not be able to do that with a single-aisle frame based on the A320 family. So they would have to clean-sheet a small widebody, as well.

Based on the most recent media speculation, I think Boeing may very well not design NMA to carry pallet freight in the hold, just containerized. As such, they will push the Asian operators to the 787 and RFP it against the A330neo.

Hence an NMA freighter would be designed to replace the 757, not the 767, with pallets and containers on the main deck and containers in the hold (as opposed to the current bulk loading on the 757).


As a tenured FedEx employee who deals directly with the aircraft, flight crews and load planning on a daily basis, I would say this is what FX wants and needs.


Thanks for your input. Having FX on board from the beginning would lock in almost 100+ orders right off the bat for the FREIGHTER version. That's more than certain cargo aircraft production runs.
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JustSomeDood
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:43 am

I am not buying FX as a key driver for initial NMA sales, their 757s were all pax conversions and the new-build 767Fs/777Fs will be around for a while. No doubt an NMA freighter would be better than a 757 for freight, but enough for FedEx to justify billions in Capex for more new-builds?
 
jagraham
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:55 am

To be looking at a 797F has to mean short range. The 788 max payload is ~ 100000 lb, and the MTOW knee is at 5500 nmi. There is no use in having a 797 carry even half as much cargo as a 788 freighter version (I am using this as an example; I would expect the freighter version to be based on the 789 unless Boeing takes advantage of the 788 redesign they are doing to get a 788ER version with the 789s MTOW) as far as a 788 can go. So if a 797 is considered for a freighter version, Boeing would have to be considering upping the max structural payload without upping the MTOW much. Meaning under 3500 nmi range.
 
BobbyPSP
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:56 am

Bear with me as I haven’t gone through the whole thread.

Instead of saying Boeing dragging their feet, I belive they’re doing the best due diligence to see what their customers want. Now cargo obviously very different but it’s the right thing to bring as many willing, serious customers and get their “must haves” vs “we’d like this.

Better sort out various configurations and missions and find common denominators while in design/concept stage
 
airzona11
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:37 am

c933103 wrote:
And so... passenger version alone cannot justify the launch of NMA, and now freighter version is needed to make the business case?

Or as the headline says, "Expand the NMA business case." Boeing has 3 models currently produced that are very successful passenger and freight, why would they not go after FX (and others)?
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:04 am

jagraham wrote:
To be looking at a 797F has to mean short range.


If the thesis that it is being advanced as a 757F replacement is correct, then ~3000 nm - enough to fly to any point in the CONUS from MEM and SDF, or any place in Europe from CDG - is plenty.
 
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c933103
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:50 am

airzona11 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
And so... passenger version alone cannot justify the launch of NMA, and now freighter version is needed to make the business case?

Or as the headline says, "Expand the NMA business case." Boeing has 3 models currently produced that are very successful passenger and freight, why would they not go after FX (and others)?

They have also decided to delay the launch decision till end of 2019
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate.
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:13 am

So let's get this straight - an unlaunched passenger jet needs a freight company to help launch it when there's no cargo version even being mooted?

Riiiiiight.

No wonder he was let go from CNN. And to think people would pay 200 bucks for what essentially is his conjecture and speculation? Not likely.

Other, bigger media sources have their own and better contacts, like when Bloomberg broke the mega deal with IndiGo Partners at Leahy's last air show. This stuff though is just wreck and no facts with a price tag attached for good measure.

And he's an even bigger idiot if he thinks it'll be 'illegal' to sell 767s in the next decade. Someone better tell him the USAF wants to buy more KC-46A's....
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:04 am

hinckley wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Lpbri wrote:
There is no such thing as international law.


Lol. Yes, there is.


Lol, No there isn't. Anywhere. Period.

The ICAO, like many UN organizations, has voluntary membership. In the case of the ICAO, it's members consist of pretty much every UN country. But any member country that doesn't like it's regulations simply has to resign from the organization. And before you Lol at that prospect, just consider the current occupant of the White House.


You realise there is actually a difference between law and enforcement...?
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hinckley
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:48 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
You realise there is actually a difference between law and enforcement...?


Good point! But of course this is the correct answer . . .

iamlucky13 wrote:
What gets referred to as "international law" is really an informal way of referencing the collection of treaties each nation individually agrees to.

Each sovereign nation sets its own laws. No outside body has authority to impose laws upon them, much less to directly enforce them directly. Instead, each nation decides whether or not to assent to the treaty. Typically a nation will first officially decide to ratify a treaty, then will pass its own laws actually enacting the terms of the treaty. Enforcement is typically handled by other member nations denying benefits or enacting penalties or remedies in their dealings with violators agreed to under the treaty. For example, tariffs are a common remedy sought under the treaties overseen by the WTO.


As far as I know, the only set of "international laws" that are senior to an individual nation's laws is the EU in which laws passed in Brussels will supersede any conflicting national laws. But as Brexit proves, even in that case, a nation can withdraw from the EU and that supersession no longer applies.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing looks to FedEx to expand NMA business case

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:53 am

c933103 wrote:
They have also decided to delay the launch decision till end of 2019

No, they didn't.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -y-450239/ says:

Boeing now plans to make a launch decision on the New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) in 2019 but remains committed to an entry-into-service date in 2025, chief executive Dennis Muilenburg said on the eve of the Farnborough air show.

The proposed concept for a 200-270-seat family of aircraft with 4,000-5,000nm range has been on Boeing's drawing boards since 2012, but the launch decision is still at least six-18 months away.

Based on the statement the decision date certainly wasn't stated as end 2019 and the decision could come any time after mid January 2019.

The reporters covering the show suggest the decision is probably targeted for the Paris air show next June, but Boeing isn't willing to state that on the record.

I'm not trying to pick on you. The issue is that it's so easy to start false narratives here on a.net so we shouldn't lock in on something that wasn't said.
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