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Alexdk
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E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:40 am

Did not find such a topic. While it is not officially announced, it is highly likely that E2 will be the same for Boeing what A220 is for Airbus. Given the ongoing A220/A320 discussion, is MAX 7 as dead as A319NEO? Also what about potential E195-E2 stretch (E200?) vs. MAX 8? As I understand, E2 is not as brand new as CS/A220, or am I wrong?
 
cledaybuck
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:26 pm

I'll say the same thing here that I said in the Airbus thread. The 737 Max7 isn't worth worrying about.
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Polot
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:37 pm

The MAX 7 was already as a dead as the A319neo. The E2 can’t be effectively stretched to replace the Max 8 (which remember is also slightly larger than the A320) due to its 4 abreast layout. The plane would just be too long.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:58 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
I'll say the same thing here that I said in the Airbus thread. The 737 Max7 isn't worth worrying about.

Polot wrote:
The MAX 7 was already as a dead as the A319neo

Agree with all of the above. As we all know, much too high CASM.

And later, the CS300 was much more of a "contributing" factor than could have been the smaller E195E2.
Last edited by ExMilitaryEng on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:13 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I'll say the same thing here that I said in the Airbus thread. The 737 Max7 isn't worth worrying about.

Polot wrote:
The MAX 7 was already as a dead as the A319neo

Agree with all of the above. As we all know, much too high CASM.

And of the following two; the CS300 was much more of a "contributing" factor than could have been the smaller E195E2.

The MAX 7 and A319 are now too heavy (empty) for the size range. Materials and engines did them in. The E2-195, as noted, competes against the A220-300. It seems as if the A220-100 is for rounding out A220 orders. When you beat promise on fuel burn.

Every bid will be E2 vs. A220. Margins will suffer until a natural equilibrium establishes.

We still have a few known orders outstanding:
1. Kenya
2. Spirit
3. United

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planecane
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:22 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I'll say the same thing here that I said in the Airbus thread. The 737 Max7 isn't worth worrying about.

Polot wrote:
The MAX 7 was already as a dead as the A319neo

Agree with all of the above. As we all know, much too high CASM.

Except for the fact that Southwest has stated that they foresee 60% of their fleet being the 737 MAX 7 in the future. That's around 500 aircraft. If that happens, the variant is not exactly "dead."

Also, who cares if it sells or not? The fact that the MAX 7 is just a simple shrink of the MAX 8 means the development cost to offer it is extremely low and producing it on the same line as the MAX 8 is very efficient.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:33 pm

Hasn't WN said that they will want several hundred 7s?
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:35 pm

It's worth remembering that the 737 MAX 7 got a stretch over the 737-700 making it bigger than an A319 neo. As far as I recall the MAX 7 is roughly the same size as the old 737-400. If anything the MAX 7 sits nicely between an E195E2 and the MAX 8.
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AvObserver
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:07 pm

The MAX7 is also being touted for longer range which will likely be part of its appeal to Southwest. And don't forget the BBJ versions of it to follow. The variant won't be a huge seller but neither is it as dead as the A319NEO appears to be. Airbus sealed that model's fate by adopting the CS300 into its portfolio as the A220-300.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:33 pm

planecane wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
I'll say the same thing here that I said in the Airbus thread. The 737 Max7 isn't worth worrying about.

Polot wrote:
The MAX 7 was already as a dead as the A319neo

Agree with all of the above. As we all know, much too high CASM.

Except for the fact that Southwest has stated that they foresee 60% of their fleet being the 737 MAX 7 in the future. That's around 500 aircraft. If that happens, the variant is not exactly "dead."

Also, who cares if it sells or not? The fact that the MAX 7 is just a simple shrink of the MAX 8 means the development cost to offer it is extremely low and producing it on the same line as the MAX 8 is very efficient.

Southwest will have time to revisit that decision. Due to the new heavier and different optimized engines, the -7 is still a shrink with less optimized economics. In a world with:
1. DL, B6, and Moxie flying the A220
2. UA and Spirit both with known bids of E2-195 vs.A220.

WN doesn't seem to be planning for the competitive environment the -7 MAX will fly in...

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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:36 pm

I imagine many US airlines (and many other airlines globally) could make the E2-195 work. It has excellent range, economics, comfort, and established Embraer E-Jet support. I wonder what the fuel burn for the E2-195 vs 737-700NG/A319CEO/MD80 looks like? I would think the E2-195 is a cheaper plane to fly vs even the A220-200/300 on flights under 3 hours which I imagine many of these would spend the bulk of their time on.
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:55 pm

The Max 7 gets certified sometime this year. Boeing wouldn't certify it if they didn't have people wanting to fly it.
 
ILS28ORD
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:57 pm

I can't see WN replacing -700s with E2-195s. Even if they are the only max -7 operator the hundreds they will buy will keep the program alive.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:34 pm

Like the A220/A319-A320 debate, the E2-195 is not and will not be a replacement for the B737-7 neither will "kill it". It is a totally different concept and has several different specifications.
On both cases, you would expect the replacement in the future (whenever it may be), to be something that offer commonality across the board (i.e. one single MOM to replace both the A220 and A320 across the board, for example - same would apply for the B737-E Jets if the JV goes ahead). But this is probably far of in the horizon.

Order-wise, I believe that both E2-195 and B737-MAX7 will acquire orders and will continue for the time being.

I am sorry but I do not see United going for anything other than Boeing/Embraer. It has A319s and A320s but has stuck with Boeing for quite a while now and seems to want to get rid of their A350 order, prioritizing the B787. Same as Airbus/Jet Blue tie-up for the A220 order, I would expect something like to happen here from a Boeing perspective.

I am not sure about Spirit, though.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:34 pm

WN doesn't have the software or processes for a 2nd type. That is their problem. They are great with one type and that is it. WN will buy the planes. They will then compete with DL, B6, Moxie, UA, and Spirit. For the first time WN will have to compete at a significant cost disadvantage. That means markets will be surrendered to the above.

Southwest will thrive. Because they cannot economically opperate a 2nd type, they left an obvious opening for Moxie.

Moxie will be to small markets what JetBlue was to TCON.

So we can agree WN won't pick another type. That doesn't change the say 2025 competitive landscape.

Core strength=core rigidity

If you are not familiar with when a core strength for a business becomes a core regidity, I suggest you read up on the concept. The cost per flight of an A220-300 is just too much less to not give an advantage. And the cost of the E2 is even less...

Exciting times. You'll have to wait until well over a thousand of the two are in service, but it will happen.

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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:48 pm

See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:50 pm

I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
WN doesn't have the software or processes for a 2nd type. That is their problem. They are great with one type and that is it. WN will buy the planes. They will then compete with DL, B6, Moxie, UA, and Spirit. For the first time WN will have to compete at a significant cost disadvantage. That means markets will be surrendered to the above.



Sorry, but I have to disagree. If WN had the capability to modify/upgrade the software to fly international routes, it certainly has the capability to allow for a second type.

IMO, Southwest is running out of new routes to fly. In order to keep growing, it will need to add routes. It may buy a smaller aircraft to open routes to smaller destinations, or it may buy a larger aircraft with more range to open more international routes. I don't know which way it will go, but it will go with one of them
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:05 pm

OA940 wrote:
See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.

No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:13 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.


WN has abandoned much of the intra-Texas market to the automobile. They have no plane to replace the niche of the 737-200 which was their original aircraft. The minimum capacity WN has on any route now is 143, and the minimum capacity on order is 150. The one aircraft business model was great when the competitors had fleets of many different models and submodels with different options.

It's quite different when an airline has over 700 planes. All the planes in the capacity range WN would buy have twin engines and a crew of 2 in the cockpit. That wasn't the case in 1971. Back then lots of airlines in the US didn't buy 737's, because the pilots' unions demanded 3 people in the cockpit. WN needs to improve its IT department to allow more flexibility. They are leaving behind lots of medium sized markets by not having aircraft small enough to service them economically.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.

No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


I really don't think Southwest will be taking all of the MAX-7's they have on order. I suspect most will be converted to -8's and they may even try a few -10's on for size. Trip costs for the -7's are too high compared to the E2 and 220 and it gets spanked by the -8 on CASM.

They have more than enough -700's to fit that role for the next couple of decades, which will be relatively competitive to all new aircraft since they are paid for.

Eventually, if they want to compete in the sub -150 seat category, they are going to have to look at something smaller...and that will probably be the E2, from Boeing.
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:26 pm

How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched? It seems to me that having the ability to close more of the gap between 100 and 150 seats will help justify the mainline operational costs. I would think the closer an aircraft is to the 76 seat cutoff, the more I'm going to defer to outsourcing to express type flying. The A220 series has multiple options in that size range, I don't know if a 4-abreast aircraft can be stretched any further. This seems to leave Boeing at a loss for filling the Max7 CASM disadvantage to the A220.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:37 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.

No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


I really don't think Southwest will be taking all of the MAX-7's they have on order. I suspect most will be converted to -8's and they may even try a few -10's on for size. Trip costs for the -7's are too high compared to the E2 and 220 and it gets spanked by the -8 on CASM.

They have more than enough -700's to fit that role for the next couple of decades, which will be relatively competitive to all new aircraft since they are paid for.

Eventually, if they want to compete in the sub -150 seat category, they are going to have to look at something smaller...and that will probably be the E2, from Boeing.
WN only has 30 7's on order. I think they will take those. I basically agree with this though (except I don't drink Scotch):
seabosdca wrote:
I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:40 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched? It seems to me that having the ability to close more of the gap between 100 and 150 seats will help justify the mainline operational costs. I would think the closer an aircraft is to the 76 seat cutoff, the more I'm going to defer to outsourcing to express type flying. The A220 series has multiple options in that size range, I don't know if a 4-abreast aircraft can be stretched any further. This seems to leave Boeing at a loss for filling the Max7 CASM disadvantage to the A220.


That's my question as well. Can the E2-195 fit 150 seats? Despite the cost disadvantage, the ability to seat 150 may help the 737-7 overcome the cost delta.
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:49 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched? It seems to me that having the ability to close more of the gap between 100 and 150 seats will help justify the mainline operational costs. I would think the closer an aircraft is to the 76 seat cutoff, the more I'm going to defer to outsourcing to express type flying. The A220 series has multiple options in that size range, I don't know if a 4-abreast aircraft can be stretched any further. This seems to leave Boeing at a loss for filling the Max7 CASM disadvantage to the A220.


That's my question as well. Can the E2-195 fit 150 seats? Despite the cost disadvantage, the ability to seat 150 may help the 737-7 overcome the cost delta.


I don't think that Southwest would necessarily need a 1-1 replacement for the -7. The seat costs of the E2 are probably about the same as the -8, which has only slightly higher trip costs than the -7.

I really can't imagine that Boeing would allow Southwest to get away, so I think it's either the E2 or nothing, if they want to go smaller than the -8...and ultimately, I think they will. My guess is Jetblue is going to do exceedingly well with the 220 and Southwest will take that lesson to heart...eventually.
What the...?
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:00 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched?

osupoke07 wrote:
That's my question as well. Can the E2-195 fit 150 seats?

It can't really be stretch anymore.

At 4 abreast, the efficiency trade off would be too great (drag versus weight versus passengers loading time). The "narrow" fuselage would certainly need reinforcements. And finally, the fuselage length would greatly limit the rotation angle at TO.

On a side note; that incapacity to be stretched probably saved Embraer from those predatory tactics / prices the CSeries encountered... (like those B737-700s @ $23M ea...)
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:13 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched?

osupoke07 wrote:
That's my question as well. Can the E2-195 fit 150 seats?

It can't really be stretch anymore.

At 4 abreast, the efficiency trade off would be too great (drag versus weight versus passengers loading time). The "narrow" fuselage would certainly need reinforcements. And finally, the fuselage length would greatly limit the rotation angle at TO.

On a side note; that incapacity to be stretched probably saved Embraer from those predatory tactics / prices the CSeries encountered... (like those B737-700s @ $23M ea...)


But UA had second thoughts and converted those orders to other models within weeks of placing the order.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:28 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
But UA had second thoughts and converted those orders to other models within weeks of placing the order.
Not surprising too. The poor CASM ensured the money saved upfront would have disappeared within a few years...
And most of them were not converted but rather more or less cancelled.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:30 pm

Why would Southwest publicly state that they see 60% of their fleet being the MAX 7, if they didn't think that would be the case? It certainly isn't a negotiating tactic for a lower MAX 7 price or they'd say the opposite. Boeing already started producing the MAX 7 so the statement wasn't to prevent Boeing from cancelling it.

Maybe Southwest wants the simplicity of using the MAX 7 for their 149 seat aircraft so the same model can be used where the performance is needed and where it isn't. If they took on the A220 or E2 for that size where performance isn't needed then they'd end up operating 737-700, 737-800, 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 8 and the E2/A220 simultaneously. The pilot pool for the latter will have to be separate I'd think adding complexity to their operation.
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:55 pm

planecane wrote:
Why would Southwest publicly state that they see 60% of their fleet being the MAX 7, if they didn't think that would be the case? It certainly isn't a negotiating tactic for a lower MAX 7 price or they'd say the opposite. Boeing already started producing the MAX 7 so the statement wasn't to prevent Boeing from cancelling it.

Maybe Southwest wants the simplicity of using the MAX 7 for their 149 seat aircraft so the same model can be used where the performance is needed and where it isn't. If they took on the A220 or E2 for that size where performance isn't needed then they'd end up operating 737-700, 737-800, 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 8 and the E2/A220 simultaneously. The pilot pool for the latter will have to be separate I'd think adding complexity to their operation.


Boeing changed the MAX-7 to have more commonality with the -8 to simplify production. Now, the -7 is about as simple a shrink as possible. It cost very little to develop since most of the costs were borne by the -8 development so why not offer it? It will be a superior high/hot/short field/long range performer...perfect as a BBJ.

Southwest is presenting plans for the future based on how things stand now...and plans can change. Nothing is etched in stone until delivery so they can change their order to any member of the MAX family without penalty. Just pay the difference.

My theory, is that they will change their plan and, as was mentioned by others upthread, buy a few -7's for specialty roles and essentially upgauge their fleet to the -8 for the bulk of their deliveries. I'm going to go even further out on a limb and predict that Southwest will also end up buying some -10's. So far, they have only 30 -7's on order and 264 -8's. I think that's a pretty clear indication of their real plans going forward.

I will also restate that I think Southwest will also eventually buy the E2-195.

Southwest has had the 737-200/300/500/700/800/-7/-8 in their fleet. While it has always been a 737 fleet, the -200 and the -8 are the same plane in name only. I think the only things they have in common are the trim wheels and cockpit glass. The airline has shows that it is capable of evolving to changing business requirements.

Sure, I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me. Whether or not it makes sense to Southwest, is the question.
Last edited by JoeCanuck on Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
What the...?
 
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Polot
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:04 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
But UA had second thoughts and converted those orders to other models within weeks of placing the order.
Not surprising too. The poor CASM ensured the money saved upfront would have disappeared within a few years...
And most of them were not converted but rather more or less cancelled.

They were all converted to 737 MAXs. 737NG->MAX conversion results in Boeing cancelling NG order and booking new Max order. Airbus does same with Ceo->Neo. It was all a mess though because Boeing never actually booked all the 73Gs that UA was claiming they had on order (identified at least).
 
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seabosdca
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:16 pm

planecane wrote:
Why would Southwest publicly state that they see 60% of their fleet being the MAX 7, if they didn't think that would be the case? It certainly isn't a negotiating tactic for a lower MAX 7 price or they'd say the opposite. Boeing already started producing the MAX 7 so the statement wasn't to prevent Boeing from cancelling it.


I think that was just a statement made without a lot of foresight. As the analysts take DL's (and Moxie's, if it succeeds) A220 fleets into account, and as other legacies start thinking in depth about A220 vs. E2, it will become clearer and clearer that a 60% MAX 7 fleet will create a major competitive disadvantage.

If WN doesn't want to add a second type, it will have to go to mostly MAX 8s and chase load factors. The transition can be gradual given how many -700s will be in the fleet for years to come.
 
jagraham
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:28 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.


The question for WN is not how much of a CASM advantage an E2 or A220 will bring; it's how much of a CASM hit a 149 seat MAX7 suffers relative to a MAX8. If it's not too much, the one plane type philosophy of WN will carry the day and they will operate hundreds of MAX7s. As a natural upgrade to the 737-700s they now operaate.

If the cost delta was so great WN would be in more of a hurry to get rid of the approximately 500 737-700s they currently operate.
 
golfradio
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:36 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched?

osupoke07 wrote:
That's my question as well. Can the E2-195 fit 150 seats?

It can't really be stretch anymore.

At 4 abreast, the efficiency trade off would be too great (drag versus weight versus passengers loading time). The "narrow" fuselage would certainly need reinforcements. And finally, the fuselage length would greatly limit the rotation angle at TO.



I think another problem is also the wing. In the case of the CSeries, the wing is optimized around the CS300 leaving a little room for another stretch. In the case of the E2s, the wing is optimzed around the E2-190. That's the sweet spot niche that EMB wanted to be in, the 100 seater market.
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
tphuang
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:47 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.

No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


This is truly interesting. Up to this point, B6 has higher cost on those E90s than WN does with 737. Going forward, 220 replacing them will have cost advantage over 737 MAX while being a more comfortable product (revenue driver). If B6 has both lower CASM and higher RASM vs WN, WN is in trouble. And DL with A220 will have a smaller cost disadvantage vs WN since it will be much lower cost than the 717 that it's replacing. And A220-100 will be a RASM driver. Big problem for WN too.

and this has been a terrible quarter for WN and other carriers that are more domestically oriented. They are slowing down hiring. Now that WN no longer has the same level of cost advantage that it did before, it's hard to see them invading new markets like they have in the past. And 737 MAX really isn't great for these short haul markets they have dominated in the past.

planecane wrote:
Why would Southwest publicly state that they see 60% of their fleet being the MAX 7, if they didn't think that would be the case? It certainly isn't a negotiating tactic for a lower MAX 7 price or they'd say the opposite. Boeing already started producing the MAX 7 so the statement wasn't to prevent Boeing from cancelling it.

Maybe Southwest wants the simplicity of using the MAX 7 for their 149 seat aircraft so the same model can be used where the performance is needed and where it isn't. If they took on the A220 or E2 for that size where performance isn't needed then they'd end up operating 737-700, 737-800, 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 8 and the E2/A220 simultaneously. The pilot pool for the latter will have to be separate I'd think adding complexity to their operation.


a couple of things, the pilot cost for A220 will be lower than 737. The round trip cost will be quite a bit lower. The CASM is also lower. One of the great advantage of 737 in the past is its take off performance and range. But it won't have that vs A220.

Clearly MAX 8 is too much an aircraft for many of the shorthaul routes that WN operates. Even MAX 7 is too much.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:48 pm

jagraham wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.


The question for WN is not how much of a CASM advantage an E2 or A220 will bring; it's how much of a CASM hit a 149 seat MAX7 suffers relative to a MAX8. If it's not too much, the one plane type philosophy of WN will carry the day and they will operate hundreds of MAX7s. As a natural upgrade to the 737-700s they now operaate.

If the cost delta was so great WN would be in more of a hurry to get rid of the approximately 500 737-700s they currently operate.

There is no need to hurry until a competitor uses a new type to drive down fares. As A220 production is low and E2-195 hasn't started, we are talking about a future when quantities are in the global fleet. It takes at least 20% of the fleetfor a size range to create the effects noted.

I respect seabosdca's insight, but because of the production lag, I believe WN will take over a hundred -7 MAX.

But let us imagine the future where:
DL has 125 A220 (or A220+E2)
UA has 50 (either)
B6 has 60+ (options likely)
Moxie has 60
Spirit has 50+
AA has some number.

By my estimate, the A220-300 has a per seat advantage in costs of 7% to 12% over the -7. The E2-195 costs a fraction more per seat, but also a fraction less per flight. (about 3%).

I think WN could find itself in a decade scrambling to rationalize the fleet. They wouldn't be the first large airline to have the issue (see DC-7, completely whiped from the skies by the DC-8 and more so 707).

I do think Southwest will have to do seabosdca's (a) or (b) decision; it shall just occur after they are stuck with a large number of uncompetitive airframes.

The hurry to replace 73Gs will happen only after A220+E2 production exceeds 200 per year. So this is a slow . motion train wreck 5+ years away from being obvious.

The new generation planes will do as much for WN's competition as the 737 did for WN.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
There is no need to hurry until a competitor uses a new type to drive down fares. As A220 production is low and E2-195 hasn't started, we are talking about a future when quantities are in the global fleet. It takes at least 20% of the fleetfor a size range to create the effects noted.

I respect seabosdca's insight, but because of the production lag, I believe WN will take over a hundred -7 MAX.

But let us imagine the future where:
DL has 125 A220 (or A220+E2)
UA has 50 (either)
B6 has 60+ (options likely)
Moxie has 60
Spirit has 50+
AA has some number.

By my estimate, the A220-300 has a per seat advantage in costs of 7% to 12% over the -7. The E2-195 costs a fraction more per seat, but also a fraction less per flight. (about 3%).

I think WN could find itself in a decade scrambling to rationalize the fleet. They wouldn't be the first large airline to have the issue (see DC-7, completely whiped from the skies by the DC-8 and more so 707).

I do think Southwest will have to do seabosdca's (a) or (b) decision; it shall just occur after they are stuck with a large number of uncompetitive airframes.

The hurry to replace 73Gs will happen only after A220+E2 production exceeds 200 per year. So this is a slow . motion train wreck 5+ years away from being obvious.

The new generation planes will do as much for WN's competition as the 737 did for WN.

Lightsaber


I only have one quibble with that. I think that WN's huge current fleet of -700's will be more than enough to sustain the traffic required by an aircraft of that size as long as they need, since they will remain in the fleet for up to 20 years or so. I think they will probably take the 30 on order...but that will be it. The -8's are a different matter. They will take all of those.

On the other hand, I'm not willing to bet any of my own money on my guesses.
What the...?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:30 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There is no need to hurry until a competitor uses a new type to drive down fares. As A220 production is low and E2-195 hasn't started, we are talking about a future when quantities are in the global fleet. It takes at least 20% of the fleetfor a size range to create the effects noted.

I respect seabosdca's insight, but because of the production lag, I believe WN will take over a hundred -7 MAX.

But let us imagine the future where:
DL has 125 A220 (or A220+E2)
UA has 50 (either)
B6 has 60+ (options likely)
Moxie has 60
Spirit has 50+
AA has some number.

By my estimate, the A220-300 has a per seat advantage in costs of 7% to 12% over the -7. The E2-195 costs a fraction more per seat, but also a fraction less per flight. (about 3%).

I think WN could find itself in a decade scrambling to rationalize the fleet. They wouldn't be the first large airline to have the issue (see DC-7, completely whiped from the skies by the DC-8 and more so 707).

I do think Southwest will have to do seabosdca's (a) or (b) decision; it shall just occur after they are stuck with a large number of uncompetitive airframes.

The hurry to replace 73Gs will happen only after A220+E2 production exceeds 200 per year. So this is a slow . motion train wreck 5+ years away from being obvious.

The new generation planes will do as much for WN's competition as the 737 did for WN.

Lightsaber


I only have one quibble with that. I think that WN's huge current fleet of -700's will be more than enough to sustain the traffic required by an aircraft of that size as long as they need, since they will remain in the fleet for up to 20 years or so. I think they will probably take the 30 on order...but that will be it. The -8's are a different matter. They will take all of those.

On the other hand, I'm not willing to bet any of my own money on my guesses.

At this point, I think more information is required before WN decides. It is possible I am wrong and they see the writing on the wall before making a strategic blunder.

I'm simply voting on institutional inertia. I believe Southwest hasn't prepared itself for the efficient opperations of multiple types and so will go too far before realizing they must shift. The shift requires a change in union contracts, training, and software. From what I, as an outsider, can tell, WN is dooming itself to a hard decade by not laying the groundwork.

Meh. Not my problem.
Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:

I'm simply voting on institutional inertia. I believe Southwest hasn't prepared itself for the efficient opperations of multiple types and so will go too far before realizing they must shift. The shift requires a change in union contracts, training, and software. From what I, as an outsider, can tell, WN is dooming itself to a hard decade by not laying the groundwork.

Meh. Not my problem.
Lightsaber


Hahahaha. Exactly...which is why spitballing interesting ideas is such cost effective entertainment. My job isn't on the line if I guess wrong...though I don't get that fat bonus if I guess right.
What the...?
 
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par13del
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:50 pm

Ok, we get the cost advantage of the physical planes - A220 / 737MAX 7 and the E2, what we are missing here is that at present very few regional jets are being operated by mainline.
If these a/c are to significantly affect the USA market which is WN core, either they will be operated by mainline with their increased cost or more mainline route flying will be outsourced.
Chpt.11 was a game changer for mainline in lowering their cost, let's see what they use to get rid of scope, that is the bigger issue not whether WN can convert / obtain software. If mainline get scope relief, all WN has to do is to figure out a way to do the chpt.11 thing and presto, back to square one. Mainline already showed how it can be done, and yes some laws have been changed, but where lawyers are concerned.....
 
planecane
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:

But let us imagine the future where:
DL has 125 A220 (or A220+E2)
UA has 50 (either)
B6 has 60+ (options likely)
Moxie has 60
Spirit has 50+
AA has some number.



With those numbers in the competitor's fleets, how many routes will WN be competing on vs the A220/E2? Depending on that number (I'm sure there will be overlap among the competitors), it might be "worth it" for WN to take the 7% per seat hit on those routes to maintain simplicity in the fleet. Especially because, at some point Boeing will create a successor to the 737. I can only assume that the entire reason for the JV with Embraer is to design and produce the NSA.

I'd imagine that the NSA will cover the A220-100 through A321 size range. To do that, the NSA will have to be 2 NSAs that have a high degree of commonality like the 757/767. Anyway, my rambling point being that if WN will eventually move to the NSA where they will be forced into an overlap period of 15+ years where they fly the 737 and a non-737 side by side, why overcomplicate the operation by adding the E2 or A220 5 years from now when the NSA will probably appear 10 years from now (especially if they torpedo the MOM/797).
 
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:59 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.


WN has abandoned much of the intra-Texas market to the automobile. They have no plane to replace the niche of the 737-200 which was their original aircraft. The minimum capacity WN has on any route now is 143, and the minimum capacity on order is 150. The one aircraft business model was great when the competitors had fleets of many different models and submodels with different options.

It's quite different when an airline has over 700 planes. All the planes in the capacity range WN would buy have twin engines and a crew of 2 in the cockpit. That wasn't the case in 1971. Back then lots of airlines in the US didn't buy 737's, because the pilots' unions demanded 3 people in the cockpit. WN needs to improve its IT department to allow more flexibility. They are leaving behind lots of medium sized markets by not having aircraft small enough to service them economically.


Even though MAF is located in a much smaller market than CVG, DSM, GRR, GSP, LIT, RIC, ROC, and ICT, WN actually carries more passengers to and from MAF per year than it does out of CVG, DSM, GRR, GSP, LIT, RIC, ROC, and ICT. There is also more O&D demand to MAF out of DAL on WN than there is to some of the markets that are much bigger by population than MAF out of DAL on WN.

While I agree that O&D demand from DAL to other Texas destinations has decreased, there is still more than enough O&D demand to HOU, AUS, SAT, ELP, MAF, LBB, and AMA out of DAL for WN to continue serving these destinations nonstop from DAL.

There are some existing WN nonstop routes where the 737-700 and 737 MAX 7 are a better fit than the 737-800 and the 737 MAX 8, including WN nonstop routes to and from the smaller Texas markets. WN will still need planes smaller than the 737-800 to serve its smallest markets, even after the retirement of its 737-700 planes.

Are the 30 737 MAX 7's already on order sufficient to allow WN to continue serving the smallest markets in the contiguous U.S. that are currently served by the airline, or will WN need to order more 737 MAX 7's to satisfy the needs of the smallest markets in the contiguous U.S. that are currently served by WN?
 
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OA940
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.

No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


Well OP and a few others said it was dead. Also I didn't know it had suck a high operating cost compared to other aircraft of the family. Very interesting.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
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lightsaber
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:32 pm

OA940 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
See, it isn't dead tho. Now it looks like it, but considering WN said they wanna buy 500 of them eventually, it's not dead. Plus, there's a major difference between Boeing's E195-E2/MAX 7 and Airbus' A220-300/A319neo. The 195-E2 is smaller than the A220-300/A319/319neo/737-700, and the MAX 7 is larger. The E195-E2 is more comparable to the A220-100 in terms of capacity. The MAX 7 will be able to carry more people than the aircraft above. So the 195-E2 can't ''replace'' per se the MAX 7 like Airbus essentially did with the A220-300 and A319neo.

No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


Well OP and a few others said it was dead. Also I didn't know it had suck a high operating cost compared to other aircraft of the family. Very interesting.

I did overlook the OP stating as dead. We can agree on not dead? But it is a size with only one significant customer.

Simple shrinks have horrible economics. Usually done for range and rotated out of the fleet early. The A319CEO are being rotated to liw utilization duty quickly. Airlines that opperate a significant number of low utilization aircraft are buying them used. Opperators that run them intensely are replacing them.

The issue with WN is they will buy the -7 MAX and too quickly their variable costs would regulate them to low utilization duty while financing would require high utilization,
Winter is coming.
 
rbavfan
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:54 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


I really don't think Southwest will be taking all of the MAX-7's they have on order. I suspect most will be converted to -8's and they may even try a few -10's on for size. Trip costs for the -7's are too high compared to the E2 and 220 and it gets spanked by the -8 on CASM.

They have more than enough -700's to fit that role for the next couple of decades, which will be relatively competitive to all new aircraft since they are paid for.

Eventually, if they want to compete in the sub -150 seat category, they are going to have to look at something smaller...and that will probably be the E2, from Boeing.
WN only has 30 7's on order. I think they will take those. I basically agree with this though (except I don't drink Scotch):
seabosdca wrote:
I'd bet a nice bottle of scotch that WN won't operate 100, let alone 500, MAX 7. They will order just enough MAX 7 to fly routes where they need the performance. They have a strategic decision coming up: either (a) focus more on big markets and standardize on the MAX 8 for most of the 737-700 replacement, or (b) retool their business (and a lot of retooling is needed) to accommodate a second type, which would be the E195-E2 or the A220-300.


OK guy's were talking WN. So it has to be Wild Turkey, not Scotch.
 
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OA940
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
No one said it was dead. It will be uncompetitive at cost per flight. It is a simple shrink which has poor economics.
.
The A220-300 has the same cost per passenger as the A320NEO. This means it has about a 20% lower cost per flight than the -7 MAX. It will have a lower cost per passenger at the same crew pay. This is a competitive disadvantage for WN.

In the past Southwest competed against Delta where Delta had a revenue advantage but Southwest had the cost advantage.

JetBlue is going to layoff back-office workers to be more competitive. Moxie has broadcast a strategy that goes after Southwest's small markets. They have bought the right plane to have such a significant cost advantage I want to buy stock in them.

That doesn't mean Southwest is doomed. They will still take up a large number of -7 MAX. What it means is that competitors will use the cost advantage to outgrow WN.

Lightsaber


Well OP and a few others said it was dead. Also I didn't know it had suck a high operating cost compared to other aircraft of the family. Very interesting.

I did overlook the OP stating as dead. We can agree on not dead? But it is a size with only one significant customer.

Simple shrinks have horrible economics. Usually done for range and rotated out of the fleet early. The A319CEO are being rotated to liw utilization duty quickly. Airlines that opperate a significant number of low utilization aircraft are buying them used. Opperators that run them intensely are replacing them.

The issue with WN is they will buy the -7 MAX and too quickly their variable costs would regulate them to low utilization duty while financing would require high utilization,


Agreed. Also that's really fascinating. Thanks for the new information :D
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Stitch
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:47 pm

But is WN as CASM-sensitive as other carriers? They seem to be able to command higher fares than their peers in many markets because either people assume they are the cheapest even if they are not so they do not cross-shop or their no-fee policies attract people who do not like the a la carte fare system the other carriers follow. In other words, does their higher RASM allow them to absorb a higher CASM?
 
andreman
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:14 am

golfradio wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
How much longer can the E2-195ish model be stretched?

osupoke07 wrote:
That's my question as well. Can the E2-195 fit 150 seats?

It can't really be stretch anymore.

At 4 abreast, the efficiency trade off would be too great (drag versus weight versus passengers loading time). The "narrow" fuselage would certainly need reinforcements. And finally, the fuselage length would greatly limit the rotation angle at TO.



I think another problem is also the wing. In the case of the CSeries, the wing is optimized around the CS300 leaving a little room for another stretch. In the case of the E2s, the wing is optimzed around the E2-190. That's the sweet spot niche that EMB wanted to be in, the 100 seater market.

All three versions of the E2 have different wings. There is no such thing as an optimized wing just for the E190E2. The E195E2's wing is considerably bigger.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:19 am

Stitch wrote:
But is WN as CASM-sensitive as other carriers? They seem to be able to command higher fares than their peers in many markets because either people assume they are the cheapest even if they are not so they do not cross-shop or their no-fee policies attract people who do not like the a la carte fare system the other carriers follow. In other words, does their higher RASM allow them to absorb a higher CASM?


Until the E2 and 220, there really wasn't a challenge to the -700 and -7, so Southwest really wasn't challenged in a lot of markets. I don't think any airline is immune to market forces and the E2 and 220 are changing the under 150 seat game. They will offer better CASM and trip costs than the -7 and way better than the -700. The -7 will have only slightly better trip costs than the -8, (of which Boeing is ordering 9 times more than the -7), while offering significantly better seat mile costs.

With those more efficient smaller planes, competitors can possibly lower prices enough to sway new customers. And, once they switch, they may very well like the ride enough to stay switched.

Granted, it will be years before either the E2 or 220 is out in enough force but they are coming and I personally doubt that WN wants to spend a bunch of money buying planes that are starting out behind the curve. If WN wants to stay in the sub 150 seat market, they may have to settle for a mixed fleet.
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Stitch
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Re: E195-E2 vs. 737MAX7

Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:36 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
With those more efficient smaller planes, competitors can possibly lower prices enough to sway new customers. And, once they switch, they may very well like the ride enough to stay switched.


But the perception I have been led to believe is that other carriers already offer lower prices than Southwest and yet people still choose Southwest - perhaps because they do not know WN is lower (WN does not put their prices on fare aggregate sites to my knowledge) or once one factors in all the fees others charge that WN does not, WN becomes cheaper. I also believe that WN's pricing on changeable/refundable fares is lower than the competition.

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