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Insertnamehere
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Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:36 pm

Porter has been around since 2006 and with only 29 planes is not exactly a counter to Air Canada or Westjet just yet but I'm curious what future they do have. They seem to have backed themselves into a corner with focusing on YTZ and with the shutdown from the Toronto Government to expanding the runways dropped their A220-100 (Then CSeries) order. I wonder what you all think they have as a future other than being a good but relatively niche carrier in Eastern Canada/ Northeastern US.
 
Skywatcher
Posts: 882
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Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:40 pm

Well WestJet Encore just dropped YYZ-Sudbury so that indicates that Porter are at least #2 in their core network. The fact that WestJet couldn't make a go of it suggests that Porter has a decent core business to work with.
 
evank516
Posts: 2142
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:48 pm

Maybe they need to consider a secondary hub somewhere like YUL or YOW or something. They can order the A220-100 and base them there?
 
lostsound
Posts: 659
Joined: Mon May 21, 2012 1:43 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:03 pm

Last few articles on the matter say Porter still has a deposit on A220-100s and has no plans to receive any soon but are constantly evaluating their fleets needs/growth for the future.
 
cloudboy
Posts: 1124
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:38 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:37 pm

JetBlue links to Canada, perhaps? Certainly the larger Eastern Canadian cities are easily served with the Q400 from BOS and JFK. If they decide to expand westward the A220 would be a great fit.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
wave46
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:12 pm

For the time being and until the political winds change more favourably, Porter will be in a holding pattern. YTZ is both Porter's best asset and greatest Achilles' heel. It protects them against real competition, but is limiting from an operations point of view. Unless the city, province and federal government all get onto the same page, the status quo will hold. It could be awhile.

I do not think Porter will go through the hassle of purchasing the A220 until they definitively know it can be used at their primary hub. The risk is too great that they're stuck with planes that are limited operationally. Using them at any other airport will invite Air Canada and Westjet to stomp them. I can't think of any other airports in Canada where they could repeat what they have at YTZ either - the closest one might have been Edmonton City Centre airport, but that's closed now.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:38 pm

Porter has a better chance now than they did before Ford was elected premier. Toronto voted for Ford in that election, and if the city elections in October go the same way, then the odds of Porter getting jets will get a bit better.
What the...?
 
master14225
Posts: 180
Joined: Fri May 04, 2018 6:38 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:51 pm

When will US Preclearance open at YTZ? This could be a benefit for porter maybe. They could start some more US routes like adding LGA and JFK with EWR still there, move from IAD to DCA to get more JetBlue route connections. Also they can add PHL and ATL too as they are downtown based cities like Toronto.
 
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NYPECO
Posts: 594
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Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:59 pm

Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Porter can grow much as long as they are stuck at CYTZ with 4000' runways.
 
YYZLGA
Posts: 444
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:14 pm

Many airlines have gone out of business because of over-expansion. Being stuck in a profitable niche isn't necessarily the worst thing.

Preclearance should definitely help them expand their US business. I'm sure they'll try to get LGA and especially DCA slots, if they can.
 
drgmobile
Posts: 988
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:06 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:28 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
Porter has been around since 2006 and with only 29 planes is not exactly a counter to Air Canada or Westjet just yet but I'm curious what future they do have. They seem to have backed themselves into a corner with focusing on YTZ and with the shutdown from the Toronto Government to expanding the runways dropped their A220-100 (Then CSeries) order. I wonder what you all think they have as a future other than being a good but relatively niche carrier in Eastern Canada/ Northeastern US.


The airport is governed by a tripartite agreement with the city and the federal government. It was the federal Minister of Transport who declared he would not support a change, not the city. There is a federal election next year.

Did you see somewhere that Porter dropped its A220 order? I've not heard that, and just last May Porter indicated it was keeping the order alive: https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... er-in-tact
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Future for Porter

Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:49 pm

drgmobile wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
Porter has been around since 2006 and with only 29 planes is not exactly a counter to Air Canada or Westjet just yet but I'm curious what future they do have. They seem to have backed themselves into a corner with focusing on YTZ and with the shutdown from the Toronto Government to expanding the runways dropped their A220-100 (Then CSeries) order. I wonder what you all think they have as a future other than being a good but relatively niche carrier in Eastern Canada/ Northeastern US.


The airport is governed by a tripartite agreement with the city and the federal government. It was the federal Minister of Transport who declared he would not support a change, not the city. There is a federal election next year.

Did you see somewhere that Porter dropped its A220 order? I've not heard that, and just last May Porter indicated it was keeping the order alive: https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... er-in-tact


I think if the city elections turn out like the provincial elections, Toronto may end up deciding in Porter's favor. As well, Ontario is pretty much the make or break province during federal elections. If the province and city jets at YTZ are ok, I think the feds might go along with it.
What the...?
 
Samrnpage
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:02 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:21 am

I can see them eventually getting taken over by AC or Westjet
 
wave46
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:22 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
I think if the city elections turn out like the provincial elections, Toronto may end up deciding in Porter's favor. As well, Ontario is pretty much the make or break province during federal elections. If the province and city jets at YTZ are ok, I think the feds might go along with it.


The feds/Liberal Party are opposed to it, as the residents of the Toronto Islands are opposed and have elected a Liberal MP (Adam Vaughan) in Spadina-Fort York. Marc Garneau, the Transport Minister effectively closed the door on the proposal shortly after the 2015 election.

Perhaps if a Conservative government is elected in the next federal election, we might see change. They have less to lose as they are the third party in that particular riding (and perform poorly in elections in downtown Toronto anyway), so they can do unpopular things without fearing blowback to a government MP. They also are typically pro-business and are less swayed by any argument made by Air Canada, who would be hurt by an expanded YTZ.
 
ac7e7
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:27 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:59 am

Samrnpage wrote:
I can see them eventually getting taken over by AC or Westjet


Agreed. They will likely be bought out by either WestJet or Air Canada.
 
Insertnamehere
Topic Author
Posts: 320
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:44 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:04 am

drgmobile wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
Porter has been around since 2006 and with only 29 planes is not exactly a counter to Air Canada or Westjet just yet but I'm curious what future they do have. They seem to have backed themselves into a corner with focusing on YTZ and with the shutdown from the Toronto Government to expanding the runways dropped their A220-100 (Then CSeries) order. I wonder what you all think they have as a future other than being a good but relatively niche carrier in Eastern Canada/ Northeastern US.


The airport is governed by a tripartite agreement with the city and the federal government. It was the federal Minister of Transport who declared he would not support a change, not the city. There is a federal election next year.

Did you see somewhere that Porter dropped its A220 order? I've not heard that, and just last May Porter indicated it was keeping the order alive: https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... er-in-tact


Ah, I must have been incorrect I believed that they ordered additional Q400's with what was their A220 deposit I do apologize.
 
aamd11
Posts: 916
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2001 11:54 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:24 am

YYZLGA wrote:
Many airlines have gone out of business because of over-expansion. Being stuck in a profitable niche isn't necessarily the worst thing.

Who says it's a profitable operation?
 
wave46
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:32 am

aamd11 wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:
Many airlines have gone out of business because of over-expansion. Being stuck in a profitable niche isn't necessarily the worst thing.

Who says it's a profitable operation?


As it's privately owned, there's no publicly available data.

However, I would suspect that the operation is profitable due to the current investors disinterest in selling out. However, that's speculative.

I doubt institutional investors would remain in for the long haul if there were continued losses at the operation.
 
wave46
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:36 am

ac7e7 wrote:
Samrnpage wrote:
I can see them eventually getting taken over by AC or Westjet


Agreed. They will likely be bought out by either WestJet or Air Canada.


I'm not sure that would be acceptable with the Competition Tribunal in Air Canada's case - they'd have a monopoly on YTZ and several routes to Northern Ontario cities.

As for Westjet, they're becoming more hub-and-spoke every day. I don't think another operation at YTZ would fit that model. The most they might do is take a stake in the operation just to keep Air Canada honest on that particular market.
 
drgmobile
Posts: 988
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:06 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:17 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
drgmobile wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
Porter has been around since 2006 and with only 29 planes is not exactly a counter to Air Canada or Westjet just yet but I'm curious what future they do have. They seem to have backed themselves into a corner with focusing on YTZ and with the shutdown from the Toronto Government to expanding the runways dropped their A220-100 (Then CSeries) order. I wonder what you all think they have as a future other than being a good but relatively niche carrier in Eastern Canada/ Northeastern US.


The airport is governed by a tripartite agreement with the city and the federal government. It was the federal Minister of Transport who declared he would not support a change, not the city. There is a federal election next year.

Did you see somewhere that Porter dropped its A220 order? I've not heard that, and just last May Porter indicated it was keeping the order alive: https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... er-in-tact


I think if the city elections turn out like the provincial elections, Toronto may end up deciding in Porter's favor. As well, Ontario is pretty much the make or break province during federal elections. If the province and city jets at YTZ are ok, I think the feds might go along with it.


I don't believe the city ever indicated it would oppose the plan. The province isn't a party to the agreement.
 
marktci
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:05 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:19 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Porter has a better chance now than they did before Ford was elected premier. Toronto voted for Ford in that election, and if the city elections in October go the same way, then the odds of Porter getting jets will get a bit better.


PCs won 11 seats in Toronto while NDP/Liberals won 15. The seats won by the PCs were in Etobicoke, York, North York and Scarborough. The people most effected by the Island airport and those most likely to be users of that airport voted for the Liberals and NDP.
 
ac7e7
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:27 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:00 pm

wave46 wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
Samrnpage wrote:
I can see them eventually getting taken over by AC or Westjet


Agreed. They will likely be bought out by either WestJet or Air Canada.


I'm not sure that would be acceptable with the Competition Tribunal in Air Canada's case - they'd have a monopoly on YTZ and several routes to Northern Ontario cities.

As for Westjet, they're becoming more hub-and-spoke every day. I don't think another operation at YTZ would fit that model. The most they might do is take a stake in the operation just to keep Air Canada honest on that particular market.


They would likely just be required to give up some landing slots to Westjet.
 
aamd11
Posts: 916
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2001 11:54 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:50 pm

wave46 wrote:
aamd11 wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:
Many airlines have gone out of business because of over-expansion. Being stuck in a profitable niche isn't necessarily the worst thing.

Who says it's a profitable operation?


As it's privately owned, there's no publicly available data.

However, I would suspect that the operation is profitable due to the current investors disinterest in selling out. However, that's speculative.

I doubt institutional investors would remain in for the long haul if there were continued losses at the operation.

You'd be surprised. Unless a dramatic turnaround has occurred during the first part of 2018, profit has not been acknowledged (aside from selling the terminal a few years back) in many years.

Next time you bump into a front line Porter employee, ask them about their most recent profit sharing payment. 2017 was another transition year with the three new aircraft, an investment in the reliability of the operation. There's been a few transition years over the year, including the year of the terminal sale as that introduced leases for office space etc into the equation.

They are working hard to turn a profit - that'd enable an IPO to be launched. Costs are battled valiantly at every turn, including the cost of office space at YTZ (they will before long move offices out of the terminal to another location).

Perhaps money has been made somewhere along the way for someone, but the employees haven't been privy to that information, and losses were common just a couple of years ago.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2813
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:50 pm

aamd11 wrote:
wave46 wrote:
aamd11 wrote:
Who says it's a profitable operation?


As it's privately owned, there's no publicly available data.

However, I would suspect that the operation is profitable due to the current investors disinterest in selling out. However, that's speculative.

I doubt institutional investors would remain in for the long haul if there were continued losses at the operation.

You'd be surprised. Unless a dramatic turnaround has occurred during the first part of 2018, profit has not been acknowledged (aside from selling the terminal a few years back) in many years.

Next time you bump into a front line Porter employee, ask them about their most recent profit sharing payment. 2017 was another transition year with the three new aircraft, an investment in the reliability of the operation. There's been a few transition years over the year, including the year of the terminal sale as that introduced leases for office space etc into the equation.

They are working hard to turn a profit - that'd enable an IPO to be launched. Costs are battled valiantly at every turn, including the cost of office space at YTZ (they will before long move offices out of the terminal to another location).

Perhaps money has been made somewhere along the way for someone, but the employees haven't been privy to that information, and losses were common just a couple of years ago.


I'm guessing you have some evidence to support your assertion of losses? The only thing public is Deluce has said PD is debt-free.
 
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OA940
Posts: 1990
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Re: Future for Porter

Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:09 pm

If they can get the extension at YTZ it would be a great step for them. Idk why the Port Authority are so against it. Any jet since the 80s makes less noise than the Q400s they currently fly
A350/CSeries = bae
 
aamd11
Posts: 916
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2001 11:54 am

Re: Future for Porter

Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:12 am

Dominion301 wrote:
aamd11 wrote:
wave46 wrote:

As it's privately owned, there's no publicly available data.

However, I would suspect that the operation is profitable due to the current investors disinterest in selling out. However, that's speculative.

I doubt institutional investors would remain in for the long haul if there were continued losses at the operation.

You'd be surprised. Unless a dramatic turnaround has occurred during the first part of 2018, profit has not been acknowledged (aside from selling the terminal a few years back) in many years.

Next time you bump into a front line Porter employee, ask them about their most recent profit sharing payment. 2017 was another transition year with the three new aircraft, an investment in the reliability of the operation. There's been a few transition years over the year, including the year of the terminal sale as that introduced leases for office space etc into the equation.

They are working hard to turn a profit - that'd enable an IPO to be launched. Costs are battled valiantly at every turn, including the cost of office space at YTZ (they will before long move offices out of the terminal to another location).

Perhaps money has been made somewhere along the way for someone, but the employees haven't been privy to that information, and losses were common just a couple of years ago.


I'm guessing you have some evidence to support your assertion of losses? The only thing public is Deluce has said PD is debt-free.

Nothing too recent, but in the run-up to the terminal sale, I was aware of a need to do something to reduce a deficit that ran into millions of dollars. It was clear to everyone - staffing levels and hours were cut, unpaid leave was being encouraged, catering changes were made, the YYT station was contracted out (more or less the first layoffs from Porter) and around that time ancillary fees started spreading (first bag fee domestically).

Internally, front line employees have been told there hasn't been a profit in years. The year of the terminal sale, the profit sharing payment was 7.5% of earnings (they paid out half of the maximum payout that year, then half the next for the terminal sale), plus there was another marginal amount (0.9% if I recall) on top "from the operation" itself that year. The following year, the promised 7.5% from the terminal sale was paid, but staff were told the operation itself did not generate profit. Ditto the following year. Although I haven't seen the latest internal letter regarding profit sharing, I gather there wasn't any this April from the 2017 fiscal year.

Of course, it's entirely possible that front line team members are told there's no money while investors collect something - only a small number of people will ever know the full story unless/until the go public.

The company was briefly debt free as far as anyone knows, but the new Q400s acquired in the last two years weren't bought with cash but financed - "taking advantage of great interest rates", given the historic low rates and the strong balance sheet for the airline. So there's supposed to be some liabilities on the books for three planes at least. Again, as far as the front line knows, based on what it's told.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2813
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:36 am

aamd11 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
aamd11 wrote:
You'd be surprised. Unless a dramatic turnaround has occurred during the first part of 2018, profit has not been acknowledged (aside from selling the terminal a few years back) in many years.

Next time you bump into a front line Porter employee, ask them about their most recent profit sharing payment. 2017 was another transition year with the three new aircraft, an investment in the reliability of the operation. There's been a few transition years over the year, including the year of the terminal sale as that introduced leases for office space etc into the equation.

They are working hard to turn a profit - that'd enable an IPO to be launched. Costs are battled valiantly at every turn, including the cost of office space at YTZ (they will before long move offices out of the terminal to another location).

Perhaps money has been made somewhere along the way for someone, but the employees haven't been privy to that information, and losses were common just a couple of years ago.


I'm guessing you have some evidence to support your assertion of losses? The only thing public is Deluce has said PD is debt-free.

Nothing too recent, but in the run-up to the terminal sale, I was aware of a need to do something to reduce a deficit that ran into millions of dollars. It was clear to everyone - staffing levels and hours were cut, unpaid leave was being encouraged, catering changes were made, the YYT station was contracted out (more or less the first layoffs from Porter) and around that time ancillary fees started spreading (first bag fee domestically).

Internally, front line employees have been told there hasn't been a profit in years. The year of the terminal sale, the profit sharing payment was 7.5% of earnings (they paid out half of the maximum payout that year, then half the next for the terminal sale), plus there was another marginal amount (0.9% if I recall) on top "from the operation" itself that year. The following year, the promised 7.5% from the terminal sale was paid, but staff were told the operation itself did not generate profit. Ditto the following year. Although I haven't seen the latest internal letter regarding profit sharing, I gather there wasn't any this April from the 2017 fiscal year.

Of course, it's entirely possible that front line team members are told there's no money while investors collect something - only a small number of people will ever know the full story unless/until the go public.

The company was briefly debt free as far as anyone knows, but the new Q400s acquired in the last two years weren't bought with cash but financed - "taking advantage of great interest rates", given the historic low rates and the strong balance sheet for the airline. So there's supposed to be some liabilities on the books for three planes at least. Again, as far as the front line knows, based on what it's told.


Thanks. There’s probably a bit of truth to it given the level of detail you provided and if there haven’t been any recent profit sharing cheques...like you said, maybe it’s all going to the shareholders or onto the balance sheet as cash. Another thing is, it’s easy to write down assets for a period of time and show little to no profit, while being very cash flow positive. I doubt PD care about EBITDAR much in the way AC displays it front and centre.
PD definitely haven’t been shy about cutting unprofitable routes, including YYB, PIT and reducing YYT to seasonal service.

A May 2018 interview is the most recent statement I’ve heard Deluce make about PD’s debt-free status.
 
Jetsouth
Posts: 369
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:38 pm

Any one have any updates on Porter Airlines? They have not done much lately in adding new routes, new planes, etc. They have basically been operating to the same destinations for some years now, rarely adding new routes.
 
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Wynnster8
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:10 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:06 pm

Porter is bringing back Myrtle beach in 2019
Favorite plane is 757-200 Favorite airport is Singapore Favorite route is SYD-JNB
 
Noise
Posts: 2469
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 1999 7:38 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:19 pm

Jetsouth wrote:
Any one have any updates on Porter Airlines? They have not done much lately in adding new routes, new planes, etc. They have basically been operating to the same destinations for some years now, rarely adding new routes.


I question whether they'll be around in their current form for much longer.

They've backed themselves into a corner by only focusing on YTZ. Without the ability to expand that airport, the limited range of their Q400s and market saturation in other Canadian markets, they're kind of stuck. Maybe they're be a good target for acquisition.

Chris
 
Airlinerdude
Posts: 182
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:07 am

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:28 pm

They lost South African Airways and Emirates as codeshare partners according to their website. I don't have any idea when that occurred.

I'm curious to see how AC's purchase of Aeroplan will impact the planned adoption of Aeroplan by PD. The FP article I've linked says:

Aimia’s recent Aeroplan partnership agreements with Air Transat, Flair Airlines and Porter Airlines are now up in the air.


I wonder if AC intends on creating an 'Avios' like approach to the new FFP. If that's the case it could be worthwhile to consider expansion from YUL given the stronghold of Aeroplan members in YUL.

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... from-aimia
 
Jetsouth
Posts: 369
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: Future for Porter

Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:37 pm

Noise wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Any one have any updates on Porter Airlines? They have not done much lately in adding new routes, new planes, etc. They have basically been operating to the same destinations for some years now, rarely adding new routes.


I question whether they'll be around in their current form for much longer.

They've backed themselves into a corner by only focusing on YTZ. Without the ability to expand that airport, the limited range of their Q400s and market saturation in other Canadian markets, they're kind of stuck. Maybe they're be a good target for acquisition.

Chris

Would it make any sense for Porter to set up a secondary hub in Ottawa? I always feel that Ottawa is under-serviced by AC and WS. Also, as they are probably lower cost operators than AC, would it make any sense for them to take over the soon to be abandoned AC route between YUL and YHM? Also adding a connection between YHM and Ottawa? I agree, their focus only on YTZ does not give them much room for expansion.
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1834
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: Future for Porter

Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:42 am

Airlinerdude wrote:
They lost South African Airways and Emirates as codeshare partners according to their website. I don't have any idea when that occurred.




I am surprised by EK losing partnership! Their interline agreement even included beyond connections thru YTZ. EX: YQT- YTZ-BOS or IAD-DXB - to beyond , at very reasonable prices. Maybe it was a hard sell especially without pre-clearance at Billy Bishop.
 
aamd11
Posts: 916
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2001 11:54 am

Re: Future for Porter

Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:01 am

Jetsouth wrote:
Would it make any sense for Porter to set up a secondary hub in Ottawa? I always feel that Ottawa is under-serviced by AC and WS. Also, as they are probably lower cost operators than AC, would it make any sense for them to take over the soon to be abandoned AC route between YUL and YHM? Also adding a connection between YHM and Ottawa? I agree, their focus only on YTZ does not give them much room for expansion.

Pretty much already there - it has a crew base (15 for each position, last I knew) and is basically the transit point for anything going East. Whether they expand beyond that remains to be seen - the business is so Toronto centric, there's nothing much that doesn't start or end at YTZ. Seasonal sun routes notwithstanding. Where would they go from YOW? Most potential markets almost certainly have existing competition, and I'm not sure they're up for competing much outside of Toronto. EWR would be a logical start - that's a busy route for them and a good amount of traffic comes from YOW, but going up against UA on that route, I'm not so sure...

Also of note, when the last three aircraft were ordered (taking them to 29 from 26), there were supposed to be options on a further 3 (to take them to 32). No sign of those yet. You do wonder what the next growth plan will be, if there are any plans to grow at all. No new slots still, so anything being added requires something to be taken away. Over the last couple of years, they have reduced some northern Ontario markets and bumped up the high frequency shuttles (YOW can hit 20x daily if I'm not mistaken). Without more slots,or a larger aircraft type available, and seemingly little appetite for non-YTZ routes, what else can they do to increase ASMs? Looks like 2019 will be another year of incremental adjustment to the basic schedule.

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