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SumChristianus
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Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:41 pm

https://airwaysmag.com/industry/latest- ... -blockade/

According to Airways Magazine, the UN International Court of Justice has ruled against the blockade of Qatar by several of its neighboring countries.

While the ruling may not immediately affect the airspace ban Qatar Airways faces it is a step towards freedom for embattled QR.

I'm usually not a fan of "international" (supranational) governance and agreements, but I like this one, assuming it doesn't give power to Iran (wasn't that a reason for the blockade in the first place?)

I'm not sure of my stance on the ME3, but assuming Qatar Airways can prove it is "subsidy free", whatever that means....this is great news for them.

EK/EY will benefit and lose from regaining access to Qatar, they will leak passengers to QR, but can also gain Doha as a new feed destination.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:49 pm

I doubt this will allow either side to restart non-stop service to/from DOH, just the airspace blockade will be lifted, which will benefit QR. Passengers still have to transit thru a third country.
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ramzi
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:00 pm

The article doesn't really convince me in any way that the blockade will be lifted, especially the last quote. Actually the concept of a blockade being forcefully lifted is a bit strange. Can the UN actually force the UAE to allow QR planes to fly in their airspace? I don't think the pressure on QR is just from losing feed traffic from the UAE. I think a big part is the fact that nearly all of their westbound flights are significantly longer due to having to fly around Saudi, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Syria, and the UAE.
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nonflier
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:12 pm

ramzi wrote:
The article doesn't really convince me in any way that the blockade will be lifted, especially the last quote. Actually the concept of a blockade being forcefully lifted is a bit strange. Can the UN actually force the UAE to allow QR planes to fly in their airspace?

It would seem that the ICJ only ruled that 'the UAE must allow Qatari Nationals to return home and for its citizens to be able to finish any studies they had begun prior to the blockade being enforced': even if the ruling were enforceable, the article itself states that it does not directly relate to the airline industry, and therefore I guess nothing will change as far as the airspace blockade (or direct flights from/to DOH) as a consequence of this ruling.
 
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yowza
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:14 pm

Is Saudi Arabia a signatory of any treaties that would compel them to comply with any rulings? In particular overflight rights.

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SumChristianus
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:18 pm

Thankfully (for some things) the UN doesn't have full supranational powers but I find little credence to the "Qatar supports terrorism" argument in the view of Saudi Arabia/UAE as likely supporters themselves of terrorism while also instigators of the blockade.

I'm hopeful for QR's sake that this is the beginning of the end of the blockade, but I guess you are right that its way too early to tell.
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LGAviation
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:25 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Thankfully (for some things) the UN doesn't have full supranational powers but I find little credence to the "Qatar supports terrorism" argument in the view of Saudi Arabia/UAE as likely supporters themselves of terrorism while also instigators of the blockade.

I'm hopeful for QR's sake that this is the beginning of the end of the blockade, but I guess you are right that its way too early to tell.


Without shifting this discussion into a discussion about regional politics in this politically volatile region, I do not share your optimism for QR in the short-run. From what understand from Gulf media, the UAE are quite satisfied with the decision given that some of Qatar's demands were rejected (https://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/qatar/ua ... -1.2255986). The UAE appears to be willing to grant admission to certain Qatari nationals but one-stop connections via MCT or KWI work just fine for this limited number of travellers. I don't see a hint of how this decision might relate to aviation and frankly in my mind aviation will be the last connection to be opened up again. The UAE and Saudi Arabia lose absolutely nothing by blocking their airspace and airports to Qatari flights, the market between the UAE and Qatar has always been dominated by Qatari travellers and also QR 'steals' quite a few connecting passengers in these countries.

All in all, the reaction to this decision to me doesn't indicate willingness to end the blockade any time soon but in this region I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the crisis was instantly resolved. I don't however see this decision being the cause for that.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:29 am

LGAviation wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Thankfully (for some things) the UN doesn't have full supranational powers but I find little credence to the "Qatar supports terrorism" argument in the view of Saudi Arabia/UAE as likely supporters themselves of terrorism while also instigators of the blockade.

I'm hopeful for QR's sake that this is the beginning of the end of the blockade, but I guess you are right that its way too early to tell.


Without shifting this discussion into a discussion about regional politics in this politically volatile region, I do not share your optimism for QR in the short-run. From what understand from Gulf media, the UAE are quite satisfied with the decision given that some of Qatar's demands were rejected (https://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/qatar/ua ... -1.2255986). The UAE appears to be willing to grant admission to certain Qatari nationals but one-stop connections via MCT or KWI work just fine for this limited number of travellers. I don't see a hint of how this decision might relate to aviation and frankly in my mind aviation will be the last connection to be opened up again. The UAE and Saudi Arabia lose absolutely nothing by blocking their airspace and airports to Qatari flights, the market between the UAE and Qatar has always been dominated by Qatari travellers and also QR 'steals' quite a few connecting passengers in these countries.

All in all, the reaction to this decision to me doesn't indicate willingness to end the blockade any time soon but in this region I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the crisis was instantly resolved. I don't however see this decision being the cause for that.


politics.....
Well, I guess EK/EY are happy to have strain put on QR, but it hasn't seemed to have done EY much done
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:43 am

Bringing this back to a civil aviation perspective, I don’t think the blockade has done much damage to QR at all. Obviously having large short haul markets cut from the network is a bummer and some routes may have been pushed out of viability due to detours, but for the majority of their long haul intl services there has been little impact and the free up of assests has lead to them growing into a large number of interesting routes. Service is still great, DOH is a pleasure to connect through, and from the perspective of your average Australian, EU, US or South East Asian traveller they are a great option and are likely to get you really close to your final destination (if travelling to the EU especially)
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:46 am

The airspace issue isn't a blockade. That term is only used to stir up emotions. No one is trying to cut off access to qatar they are only cutting off their own airspace to qatar planes. That's not a blockade.
 
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:56 am

a320fan wrote:
Bringing this back to a civil aviation perspective, I don’t think the blockade has done much damage to QR at all. Obviously having large short haul markets cut from the network is a bummer and some routes may have been pushed out of viability due to detours, but for the majority of their long haul intl services there has been little impact and the free up of assests has lead to them growing into a large number of interesting routes. Service is still great, DOH is a pleasure to connect through, and from the perspective of your average Australian, EU, US or South East Asian traveller they are a great option and are likely to get you really close to your final destination (if travelling to the EU especially)


The argument that the blockade freed assets for other routes is not logical. QR deploys aircraft to routes with the most potential. That set has been restricted with blockade, resulting in a sub-optimal network.
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:57 am

LTCM wrote:
The airspace issue isn't a blockade. That term is only used to stir up emotions. No one is trying to cut off access to qatar they are only cutting off their own airspace to qatar planes. That's not a blockade.


Have you looked at a map? Do you even know what a blockade is?
 
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:40 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Thankfully (for some things) the UN doesn't have full supranational powers but I find little credence to the "Qatar supports terrorism" argument in the view of Saudi Arabia/UAE as likely supporters themselves of terrorism while also instigators of the blockade.

I'm hopeful for QR's sake that this is the beginning of the end of the blockade, but I guess you are right that its way too early to tell.


Indeed. Qatar is an excellent carrier and it would be a poorer air transport world indeed if something like this drove QR out of business. Thankfully they appear to be managing.
(Indeed, based on recent results one might wonder if EY were the carrier being "blockaded"). I don't know who is really right and which way is up in this dispute (so much distortion on all sides), but it does seem like a very petty regional dispute that offers high risk and little reward to all playing the game. And to your point about the UN, personally I wish they had more power to crush nonsense like this. Freedom of movement/navigation is a very old principle and its a blot on us all when we allow this kind of petty nonsense to prevent the free movement of people and goods.
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:57 am

neomax wrote:
LTCM wrote:
The airspace issue isn't a blockade. That term is only used to stir up emotions. No one is trying to cut off access to qatar they are only cutting off their own airspace to qatar planes. That's not a blockade.


Have you looked at a map? Do you even know what a blockade is?

Given that qr is still sending out hundreds of flights a day, do you even know what a blockade is? The regional dispute may be causing headaches but qatar is not being denied access to the rest of the world by air. The only countries qr cannot fly to as part of the dispute are Saudi Arabia et al.
 
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:16 am

i doubt it will end because of the ruling. otherwise Israel would've taken all arab countries to court ...
 
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:52 am

And I believe there are many times that Israel have complained in international stage tht blockades they get are unjust already and that changed nothing?
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:11 pm

a320fan wrote:
Bringing this back to a civil aviation perspective, I don’t think the blockade has done much damage to QR at all. Obviously having large short haul markets cut from the network is a bummer and some routes may have been pushed out of viability due to detours, but for the majority of their long haul intl services there has been little impact and the free up of assests has lead to them growing into a large number of interesting routes. Service is still great, DOH is a pleasure to connect through, and from the perspective of your average Australian, EU, US or South East Asian traveller they are a great option and are likely to get you really close to your final destination (if travelling to the EU especially)


Incorrect. Although QR will not release numbers, traffic at DOH is down 13% YoY, and that's even with the massive expansion by QR.
 
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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:12 pm

c933103 wrote:
And I believe there are many times that Israel have complained in international stage tht blockades they get are unjust already and that changed nothing?

Exactly. Either a recognized nation is given international rights, or the international courts will be ignored. Cest la vie.

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Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:07 pm

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Re: Qatar Blockade May End with ICJ Ruling - ?

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:39 pm

Please start a new thread. This one has been stale for years.
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