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Revelation
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Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:17 am

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbu ... KKBN1KG0EZ says:

PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus (AIR.PA) posted higher than expected second-quarter earnings on Thursday and reaffirmed its full-year goals, as bottlenecks of undelivered aircraft began to ease and costs tumbled on the group’s newest big jet, the A350.

Looks like A320 is turning the corner and A350 is finally gaining cash cow status.

Also:

Enders said it was too early for Airbus to decide whether to raise production of the A350, despite Boeing sticking to plans to increase output of the rival 787 Dreamliner to 14 a month.

On smaller aircraft, he predicted Airbus overseas assembly plants in China and the United States would see their volumes increase by 50 percent in coming years.

Looks like Enders will be able to head into retirement knowing things are going in the right direction.
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parapente
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:21 am

Circa 5% up.Thats a big vote of confidence.I would agree that he's done a good job in tricky circumstances.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:48 am

I think the cost reduction on the A350 was crucial for the midterm outlook. The production increase of the A320 in Mobile and China also offers interesting options.
 
SC430
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbus-results/airbus-second-quarter-core-profit-doubles-after-a350-cost-improvements-idUKKBN1KG0EZ says:

PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus (AIR.PA) posted higher than expected second-quarter earnings on Thursday and reaffirmed its full-year goals, as bottlenecks of undelivered aircraft began to ease and costs tumbled on the group’s newest big jet, the A350.

Looks like A320 is turning the corner and A350 is finally gaining cash cow status.

Also:

Enders said it was too early for Airbus to decide whether to raise production of the A350, despite Boeing sticking to plans to increase output of the rival 787 Dreamliner to 14 a month.

On smaller aircraft, he predicted Airbus overseas assembly plants in China and the United States would see their volumes increase by 50 percent in coming years.

Looks like Enders will be able to head into retirement knowing things are going in the right direction.


Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:06 pm

SC430 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbus-results/airbus-second-quarter-core-profit-doubles-after-a350-cost-improvements-idUKKBN1KG0EZ says:

PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus (AIR.PA) posted higher than expected second-quarter earnings on Thursday and reaffirmed its full-year goals, as bottlenecks of undelivered aircraft began to ease and costs tumbled on the group’s newest big jet, the A350.

Looks like A320 is turning the corner and A350 is finally gaining cash cow status.

Also:

Enders said it was too early for Airbus to decide whether to raise production of the A350, despite Boeing sticking to plans to increase output of the rival 787 Dreamliner to 14 a month.

On smaller aircraft, he predicted Airbus overseas assembly plants in China and the United States would see their volumes increase by 50 percent in coming years.

Looks like Enders will be able to head into retirement knowing things are going in the right direction.


Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO


Your opinions are your opinions, but the A350 orders will likely pick up as the backlog is eaten up, there isn't a shortage of customers for it. The 787 had a 5 year period where the total orders only rose slightly, for virtually the same reason. The A380 is not much of a drag according to the top brass, certainly manageable, the A330neo has challenges but with the AirAsia X order is secure in the short term, and the A320's production issues once solved will make it a lovely cash cow for Airbus. No need to be so gloomy and pessimistic, especially when the financial results are looking on the up.
 
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:07 pm

That is definitely a glass half full opinion.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:12 pm

From the OP's 1st link: For the first time, Airbus said it had delivered more of the A320neo jets carrying new engines in the second quarter than the previous A320 version. But it said risks remained to its “challenging” delivery forecast of 800 in total this year.
Finally! This has been a challenge. Last I looked in the NEO delivery thread, down to 87 gliders with most (all?) of the drop in June.

I wonder if vendor ramp down penalties will be incurred or if CEO production will have to be slightly extended... Now, I'm only referring to the vendors for parts that really only go into new engines (e.g., Turbine clearance control valves last the life of the aircraft, with rebuilds). For everything else (e.g., turbine blades), the refurbishment market is now such a high fraction of production. So the cost will be low, so this is mostly curiosity.

I'm happy to hear A350 production is now cash flow positive. :bouncy:
I'd love to know the cash flow status of the A330.
I'm not optimistic on the A380 cash flow status...

Once A320NEO production smooths out, it will be a gold mine.

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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:26 pm

The A350 program is not yet cash flow positive, but they are getting there.

This is an excerpt from the Airbus press release on the half-year results about the A350 production costs.

"Good progress was made on the recurring cost curve compared to a year earlier as the programme ramps up to the targeted monthly production rate of 10 aircraft by year-end. The A350’s industrial system is now reaching a mature level with the focus remaining on recurring cost convergence."

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html


It looks like they want to go cash-flow positive before deciding on a production ramp-up.
 
SC430
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:03 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
SC430 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbus-results/airbus-second-quarter-core-profit-doubles-after-a350-cost-improvements-idUKKBN1KG0EZ says:


Looks like A320 is turning the corner and A350 is finally gaining cash cow status.

Also:


Looks like Enders will be able to head into retirement knowing things are going in the right direction.


Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO


Your opinions are your opinions, but the A350 orders will likely pick up as the backlog is eaten up, there isn't a shortage of customers for it. The 787 had a 5 year period where the total orders only rose slightly, for virtually the same reason. The A380 is not much of a drag according to the top brass, certainly manageable, the A330neo has challenges but with the AirAsia X order is secure in the short term, and the A320's production issues once solved will make it a lovely cash cow for Airbus. No need to be so gloomy and pessimistic, especially when the financial results are looking on the up.


The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.
 
SC430
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
From the OP's 1st link: For the first time, Airbus said it had delivered more of the A320neo jets carrying new engines in the second quarter than the previous A320 version. But it said risks remained to its “challenging” delivery forecast of 800 in total this year.
Finally! This has been a challenge. Last I looked in the NEO delivery thread, down to 87 gliders with most (all?) of the drop in June.

I wonder if vendor ramp down penalties will be incurred or if CEO production will have to be slightly extended... Now, I'm only referring to the vendors for parts that really only go into new engines (e.g., Turbine clearance control valves last the life of the aircraft, with rebuilds). For everything else (e.g., turbine blades), the refurbishment market is now such a high fraction of production. So the cost will be low, so this is mostly curiosity.

I'm happy to hear A350 production is now cash flow positive. :bouncy:
I'd love to know the cash flow status of the A330.
I'm not optimistic on the A380 cash flow status...

Once A320NEO production smooths out, it will be a gold mine.

Lightsaber


The article reports the A350 program is showing cost improvements - Not that it is cash flow positive.
 
bigjku
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:18 pm

SC430 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
SC430 wrote:

Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO


Your opinions are your opinions, but the A350 orders will likely pick up as the backlog is eaten up, there isn't a shortage of customers for it. The 787 had a 5 year period where the total orders only rose slightly, for virtually the same reason. The A380 is not much of a drag according to the top brass, certainly manageable, the A330neo has challenges but with the AirAsia X order is secure in the short term, and the A320's production issues once solved will make it a lovely cash cow for Airbus. No need to be so gloomy and pessimistic, especially when the financial results are looking on the up.


The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.


Most of this doesn’t matter. Stay long on Airbus and watch production rates mostly. It’s going to be a good investment so long as A320neo rates stay stable or keep rising and so long as they can sell enough A350 to keep the rate where it is planned to be. There is revenue upside if A350, A330 rates can rise. The A220 is a wildcard I wouldn’t bet on personally but it also has contractually limited downside.

My hope as someone that holds the stock is that financial stability for Airbus going forward prompts them to return more cash to investors through dividends and share buy backs. Airbus has a large market capitalization deficit to Boeing. It shouldn’t be worth as much but should be much much closer. IMHO a huge piece of this is that cash isn’t regularly returned to shareholders. If that happens with regularity (say a $3 billion annual dividend or so and something similar in stock by backs) it could easily double in value in 2 years.

Both Airbus and Boeing should be quite stable and solid investments for 3-5 years. When it comes A320neo/737 replacement time you better have some guts as an investor as I can see that getting very rocky.
Last edited by bigjku on Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:18 pm

SC430 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
From the OP's 1st link: For the first time, Airbus said it had delivered more of the A320neo jets carrying new engines in the second quarter than the previous A320 version. But it said risks remained to its “challenging” delivery forecast of 800 in total this year.
Finally! This has been a challenge. Last I looked in the NEO delivery thread, down to 87 gliders with most (all?) of the drop in June.

I wonder if vendor ramp down penalties will be incurred or if CEO production will have to be slightly extended... Now, I'm only referring to the vendors for parts that really only go into new engines (e.g., Turbine clearance control valves last the life of the aircraft, with rebuilds). For everything else (e.g., turbine blades), the refurbishment market is now such a high fraction of production. So the cost will be low, so this is mostly curiosity.

I'm happy to hear A350 production is now cash flow positive. :bouncy:
I'd love to know the cash flow status of the A330.
I'm not optimistic on the A380 cash flow status...

Once A320NEO production smooths out, it will be a gold mine.

Lightsaber


sigh... good point. It should be before year end.
The article reports the A350 program is showing cost improvements - Not that it is cash flow positive.
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:35 pm

SC430 wrote:

Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO


Airbus share holders seem to disagree with you....
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:39 pm

SC430 wrote:
The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?


The 787 having a lull is me adding some context: it happens and there's little Airbus or Boeing can do about it besides knuckle down and get production going as smoothly as they can. The A350 has won a few orders this year and there's little to suggest it will suddenly stop dead anytime soom. There has been a lull for widebodies in general in recent years, don't forget.

The A330neo order for AirAsia reaffirms that 100 neos are going to stay on order and at least mostly be delivered, which is a substantial length of time where production is guaranteed.

Apparently it is acceptable, because that's what the top brass are saying. There are downsides to stopping production and unless you can list them and then confidently say that the positives of stopping outweigh the negatives then you haven't got much to stand on. Go ahead, if you so desire.

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.
.

The cargo sector isn't enormous though, Boeing had a head start and established itself, Airbus hasn't really got a foothold. If it was lucrative and worth chasing they would have put more effort into it. Would you care to explain why it is so important that Airbus has a competitor in every single category?

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.


According to the opening comment, the 50% increase is for production in China and the USA, no mention of overall production. Maybe less anger and more reading, eh?
 
SC430
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:19 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
SC430 wrote:
The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?


The 787 having a lull is me adding some context: it happens and there's little Airbus or Boeing can do about it besides knuckle down and get production going as smoothly as they can. The A350 has won a few orders this year and there's little to suggest it will suddenly stop dead anytime soom. There has been a lull for widebodies in general in recent years, don't forget.

The A330neo order for AirAsia reaffirms that 100 neos are going to stay on order and at least mostly be delivered, which is a substantial length of time where production is guaranteed.

Apparently it is acceptable, because that's what the top brass are saying. There are downsides to stopping production and unless you can list them and then confidently say that the positives of stopping outweigh the negatives then you haven't got much to stand on. Go ahead, if you so desire.

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.
.





The cargo sector isn't enormous though, Boeing had a head start and established itself, Airbus hasn't really got a foothold. If it was lucrative and worth chasing they would have put more effort into it. Would you care to explain why it is so important that Airbus has a competitor in every single category?

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.


According to the opening comment, the 50% increase is for production in China and the USA, no mention of overall production. Maybe less anger and more reading, eh?


My post were in response to the statement by the thread originator that Enders can feel good about things turning around at Airbus. The facts are that other than a huge narrow body back log thing are not good. A slow down in A330 production, is not good, slow A350 order book, is not good, every A380 being delivered loses money, not good, no meaningful freighter program, not good!!

Make excuse for why these things occurred is like justifying robbery because I need the money. Airbus board should demand better of it's leaders.

PS I acknowledged in my post that the 50% increase was to come from over seas plants, maybe YOU should read before posting.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:19 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
SC430 wrote:
I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.


According to the opening comment, the 50% increase is for production in China and the USA, no mention of overall production. Maybe less anger and more reading, eh?


That is a strange kind of contention anyway.

Tianjin and Mobile are afaik targeting 4/m each currently.
Both lines still have headroom. i.e. going from 8/m to 16/m towards overall production beyond 60/m.
All 8 ( 2,4,1,1) current FAL lines going full tilt would produce 64 frames a month.
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:21 pm

SC430 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbus-results/airbus-second-quarter-core-profit-doubles-after-a350-cost-improvements-idUKKBN1KG0EZ says:

PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus (AIR.PA) posted higher than expected second-quarter earnings on Thursday and reaffirmed its full-year goals, as bottlenecks of undelivered aircraft began to ease and costs tumbled on the group’s newest big jet, the A350.

Looks like A320 is turning the corner and A350 is finally gaining cash cow status.

Also:

Enders said it was too early for Airbus to decide whether to raise production of the A350, despite Boeing sticking to plans to increase output of the rival 787 Dreamliner to 14 a month.

On smaller aircraft, he predicted Airbus overseas assembly plants in China and the United States would see their volumes increase by 50 percent in coming years.

Looks like Enders will be able to head into retirement knowing things are going in the right direction.


Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO


The main cash cow at Airbus is the A320 family. A huge backlog of over 6000 frames, more than 9 years to produce at the current monthly rate of 54 frames. The engine deliveries seem to have got into swing and the number of parked gliders comes down.

YES very nice times indeed at Airbus.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:27 pm

WIederling wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
SC430 wrote:

According to the opening comment, the 50% increase is for production in China and the USA, no mention of overall production. Maybe less anger and more reading, eh?


That is a strange kind of contention anyway.

Tianjin and Mobile are afaik targeting 4/m each currently.
Both lines still have headroom. i.e. going from 8/m to 16/m towards overall production beyond 60/m.
All 8 ( 2,4,1,1) current FAL lines going full tilt would produce 64 frames a month.


BFM and TSN are at 4 frames per month and targeting 6 in TSN and AFAIK 8 in BFM.

The rate in TSN is according to contracts with the Chinese state. BFM needs extension of peripheral, equipment/building to go to 8 a month
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:42 pm

SC430 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
SC430 wrote:
The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?


The 787 having a lull is me adding some context: it happens and there's little Airbus or Boeing can do about it besides knuckle down and get production going as smoothly as they can. The A350 has won a few orders this year and there's little to suggest it will suddenly stop dead anytime soom. There has been a lull for widebodies in general in recent years, don't forget.

The A330neo order for AirAsia reaffirms that 100 neos are going to stay on order and at least mostly be delivered, which is a substantial length of time where production is guaranteed.

Apparently it is acceptable, because that's what the top brass are saying. There are downsides to stopping production and unless you can list them and then confidently say that the positives of stopping outweigh the negatives then you haven't got much to stand on. Go ahead, if you so desire.

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.
.





The cargo sector isn't enormous though, Boeing had a head start and established itself, Airbus hasn't really got a foothold. If it was lucrative and worth chasing they would have put more effort into it. Would you care to explain why it is so important that Airbus has a competitor in every single category?

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.


According to the opening comment, the 50% increase is for production in China and the USA, no mention of overall production. Maybe less anger and more reading, eh?


My post were in response to the statement by the thread originator that Enders can feel good about things turning around at Airbus. The facts are that other than a huge narrow body back log thing are not good. A slow down in A330 production, is not good, slow A350 order book, is not good, every A380 being delivered loses money, not good, no meaningful freighter program, not good!!

Make excuse for why these things occurred is like justifying robbery because I need the money. Airbus board should demand better of it's leaders.

PS I acknowledged in my post that the 50% increase was to come from over seas plants, maybe YOU should read before posting.


Let us now see. A380 not good, but as expected. A330 got already 44 net orders and 8 commitments this year, so a further slow down will not be necessary. A350 production cost are down, deliveries will bring revenues next year, needed only half the numbers of the 787 to get there. Orders for the A350 are not that bad, 60 new orders, 38 net orders and 25 commitments this year.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:47 pm

SC430 wrote:

My post were in response to the statement by the thread originator that Enders can feel good about things turning around at Airbus. The facts are that other than a huge narrow body back log thing are not good. A slow down in A330 production, is not good, slow A350 order book, is not good, every A380 being delivered loses money, not good, no meaningful freighter program, not good!!


The A350 is close to breakeven with the worst of the issues ironed out and still a very large backlog. GOOD.
The A330neo's largest customer has reaffirmed its order and added 34 more, slowing the trend of 787 defections. GOOD.
The A380's costs are manageable and production is secured for long enough that a decision can be taken later on a new engine/update. GOOD.
The A32X (A321neo in particular) maintains an edge over 737 equivalents. GOOD.
Solid start for the rebranded A220 with some big and high-profile orders added.
Better financial results. GOOD.

I'm not claiming it's all rosy, clearly it isn't, but you're being overly pessimistic, which I would expect from you but still no need for it. Good financial results are not to be sniffed at, and I reckon if you judged Airbus' position a year ago when production issues were at their peak you would find that it's better now, with the production issues easing.

PS I acknowledged in my post that the 50% increase was to come from over seas plants, maybe YOU should read before posting.


Touché. Less anger would still be appreciated though.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:17 pm

Directly from the Airbus site, the financial impact of the A220 integration was calculated as follow:

"The A220 integration is expected to reduce Free Cash Flow before M&A and Customer Financing by an estimated € -0.3 billion."

Above projections only represent half a year.

That put into perspective the assertion that Airbus obtained 50.01% of the CSeries program for FREE...

While I could not find any details of what this "€ -0.3 billion" is made of, there will be definitely costs associated with providing marketing/sales, logistics/supply management and the after sale support.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:11 pm

SC430 wrote:
Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO
.....

You are of course free to have an opinion, and you are of course completely at liberty to not buy shares In Airbus if you think you can earn more elsewhere; thats how the market works.

I am a Airbus shareholder, and I for one am very happy with returns and prospects. The less you buy means more for me.....thanks !!!

You offer a dim view of Airbus prospects; thats fine; but I hold some different views....

1. A220. Airbus have just announced the A220 with some interesting initial sales, they got half of the programme for free, and are ramping up now and look to be set to have future capacity in Mobile and Montreal to push hard at future sales campaigns, particularly at the 737. I think they have a winner with the A220; it nicely compliments the bottom of the A320 family, and is set to return real profits within a year. Real exciting earning prospects with the A220 AFAIC. They also have a march on the Boeing/Embraer jv.......

2. A32x. Airbus are well placed to switch production of A321 up in terms of capability and volume, and the prospect of a 5th FAL in Malaysia will offer further production capability. The A321NEO looks an absolute gem; and with Boeing still dithering on the 'MOMmy' plane, who knows how many sales the A32x family pick up. Airbus knows Boeing are in a jam with the 'MOMmy' project. We all know Boeing can build a very fine plane, but can they sell enough to justify the $10bn investment? A lot can be read into GE's recent statement; but they clearly have doubts about sales volumes for the 'MOMmy', and seem to doubt a new engine can be justified. Boeing already has one significant future financial millstone around their necks with B787, they can't afford another one.... every week Boeing dithers, Toulouse smiles get wider...... seems to me Airbus has a definite plan with the 'MOMmy' sector; Boeing, not so much......

3. A330. Prospects I believe are bright now for the A330 with the 'Air Asia X' deal in the shed it seems; and Fernandes was quick to tell us early performance data is better than predicted. Boeing clearly campaigned hard with the 787 to win some recent campaigns and won by matching/bettering on price; but you can't defy the financial laws of gravity for ever; Boeing has to start paying some 787 bills. I don't think Schultz will shy away from offering some killer deals on A330NEO himself now things seem a little more secure......

4. A350. News about A350 production costs easing is interesting, and again, I think A350 prospects are bright; particularly if that 'undisclosed' 8-unit order at FAS18, does indeed prove to be ANZ. The one thing for sure; A350 will be earning real profits for Airbus, much sooner than B787 will for Boeing.....

5. A380. Much has been said about this magnificent aircraft already; I do hope its still around to have new propulsion mid-decade. Its already the best ride in the sky IMO, and I look forward to every trip I have on her.....



So all in all, as one investor, I'm happy with Airbus' prospects.......
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:04 pm

SC430 wrote:
Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO

SC430 wrote:
The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.

Proof that things are looking up:
:arrow: A320 'glider' backlog reducing
:arrow: A350 production cost reducing
:arrow: A380 losses stabilized
:arrow: A400M losses (tentatively) stabilized
:arrow: Airbus stock hits record value

Proof that Enders can leave with things looking up: see above.

My thoughts: A32x is already a cash cow. A321 clearly leading its category and has obvious growth options. A32x glider delivery should cause a flood of cash. A350 is clearly going to be a cash cow, it's the best 77E replacement and a good 77W replacement too. A220 is gaining orders. A330: Meh, who knows? Freighters are at best cash calves not cash cows.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:07 pm

Revelation wrote:
SC430 wrote:
Let's see, A380 is still an anchor, A330 production has been lowered, A330 and A350 sales have stalled, no meaningful competitive freighter, despite claims of becoming the top producer by 2018 that's not happening..... sure things are just ducky at Airbus !! Two years ago AIrbus was a much more optimistic organization. It is going it the wrong direction at the moment IMHO

SC430 wrote:
The second quarter was up partly due to costs being absorbed in the previous quarter. Quarter to quarter fluctuations are meaningless. Your make excuses and give no solutions. The poster claimed Enders can leave with things looking up, I take exception to that. show me where I was wrong? Does a claimed 5 year lull in 787 sales years ago change the fact the A350 is having slow orders? Is one order from AirAsia going to stop the A330 production slowdown? Is it acceptable endure continued losses on the A380 program with no solution in sight because management apparently can't make the tough call to end the program, is things looking better?

Airbus every year devotes a section of it's Annual Forecast to cargo market, yet finds itself with no meaningful product to sell - leaving for all practical purposes the entire freighter market to Boeing.

I couldn't help but notice Ender's remark the over sea's plant should see production in crease by 50% in coming years there's a confident statement.

Proof that things are looking up:
:arrow: A320 'glider' backlog reducing
:arrow: A350 production cost reducing
:arrow: A380 losses stabilized
:arrow: A400M losses (tentatively) stabilized
:arrow: Airbus stock hits record value

Proof that Enders can leave with things looking up: see above.

My thoughts: A32x is already a cash cow. A321 clearly leading its category and has obvious growth options. A32x glider delivery should cause a flood of cash. A350 is clearly going to be a cash cow, it's the best 77E replacement and a good 77W replacement too. A220 is gaining orders. A330: Meh, who knows? Freighters are at best cash calves not cash cows.


You really don't expect much from management do you?
 
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:30 pm

SC430 wrote:
You really don't expect much from management do you?

As opposed to, what exactly?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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SC430
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:53 am

juliuswong wrote:
Revelation wrote:
SC430 wrote:
You really don't expect much from management do you?

As opposed to, what exactly?

I came to ignore any post made by SC430. No matter what other OEMs do isn't enough to please him, even if we present to him/her some hard facts.

#1 Boeing fangirl yo! Sorry for this useless post......Friday ranting over.....


No problem, I understand your frustration. Boeing is a tough company to compete with. :bigthumbsup:
 
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Finn350
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:03 am

As an Airbus shareholder I am pleased with the results. What worries me a bit is the effects of BREXIT on the share value. It is very likely that there will be either a hard or no-deal BREXIT and that means hard to predict difficulties for the logistics.
 
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:20 pm

I was reading Leeham's take and noted this:
Airbus has not committed to taking A350 production past 10 a month, Enders said.

https://leehamnews.com/2018/07/26/airbu ... more-27846

But other links note targeted level 10/month with ability to produce more:
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/airbu ... nance.html
Airbus has said that it has delivered 50 A350 aircraft so far this year.
My take is that Airbus has decided to be conservative and take advantage of the 15% surge allowed in typical aerospace contracts.
The downside of this approach is there is no discount per unit as vendors are not contractually guaranteed years of production at the new level.
So this is going to 11.5 per month instead of 13 per month. Very conservative...

IMHO Airbus sales of the A350 are held back by early delivery slot availability (or the lack of them). But... they might not have the confidence to expand production until the current backlog is whittled down a little. The A350 has a classy problem, not enough near term production slots are unsold. :hyper:

Oh well, I predict the A321LR will take quite a bit of the widebody market anyway. But that is influenced by my preference to minimize hubbing and fly when I want to. For example, my sister just lost a day of vacation as her connection was missed and the airline had to put her up in a hotel for a night as small market to mid-market, even via a large hub, has very few flight opportunities if a flight is delayed.

So I hope for many more A220 sales. ;)

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
IMHO Airbus sales of the A350 are held back by early delivery slot availability (or the lack of them). But... they might not have the confidence to expand production until the current backlog is whittled down a little.

If only they could use program accounting to defer those early production costs! :scratchchin:

:stirthepot:

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

As you say, it's a classy problem to have.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airbus shares hit record after core profit tops forecasts

Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:03 pm

GB will move heaven and earth (while having little ability to move ahead with a treaty) to ensure Airbus gets its parts. I do not see more than minor problems. Lower profile goods will take a bigger hit. And Airbus may have done well financially this quarter, but .. likely not as good compared to what they will be earning in subsequent quarters.
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