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717fan
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Volotea 717, how long?

Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:40 pm

Hi all

How long will be Volotea's 717 around? They once planned to replace them all with 319, is that still their plan?
Thanks.
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lightsaber
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:05 pm

Volotea will replace them

Prior thread on the topic:
viewtopic.php?t=1348535

as I wrote a long time ago (2+ years) This had me curious, so I did a small amount of research. It turns out Volotea has some of the youngest 717s. So it is very likely these will be desired.
http://www.airfleets.net/listing/b717-3.htm

Aircraft with first flights in 2003, 2004, 2006, and even one with a first flight in 2006. Ok, some as old as 2000 and such. But in general, these are 2nd half production 717s. Five from the last year. I fully realize that with only a 8 year production run, the spread of ages of the 717 isn't like an A320... But any plane young enough to have not yet been through the 2nd heavy maintenance interval (once upon a time called a D-check interval prior to 'phased maintenance'), is more valuable than a plane more than 14 years of age.


So there isn't much rush. I believe it will depend on offered sales prices (will HA or DL buy more? DL has only bought super cheap...). Both on the 717 and A319s and I stated above, I believe A320s when the price is right; this will take NEO, MAX, and A220 production being significantly accelerated as well as enough of the latest generation delivered. I would include the E2's influence, but only if sales significantly accelerate.

There are few buyers of the 717, one reason Volotea accepted them on very low cost leases. So if those buyers want them (offer the right price), Volotea will sell. In particular as A319s are very cheap and soon A320CEOs. But their business model requires either selling the 717s or using them much more. Those 2004, 2005, and 2006 delivery 717s are of particular interest to buyers. But only at discounted prices.

So expect with seventeen 717s in their fleet and only thirteen A319s, Volotea will take time.

However, a decision is coming due to required avionics upgrades. Personally, I do not think Volotea has much choice but to upgrade.

If my answer is ambiguous, it is because the timeline is also. If DL and HA want the 717s, they'll be gone by 2020. If not, these are planes with LOVs of 100k cycles and 100k hours, so Volotea's hand won't be forced until about 2030.

Lightsaber

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WN732
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Volotea will replace them

Prior thread on the topic:
viewtopic.php?t=1348535

as I wrote a long time ago (2+ years) This had me curious, so I did a small amount of research. It turns out Volotea has some of the youngest 717s. So it is very likely these will be desired.
http://www.airfleets.net/listing/b717-3.htm

Aircraft with first flights in 2003, 2004, 2006, and even one with a first flight in 2006. Ok, some as old as 2000 and such. But in general, these are 2nd half production 717s. Five from the last year. I fully realize that with only a 8 year production run, the spread of ages of the 717 isn't like an A320... But any plane young enough to have not yet been through the 2nd heavy maintenance interval (once upon a time called a D-check interval prior to 'phased maintenance'), is more valuable than a plane more than 14 years of age.


So there isn't much rush. I believe it will depend on offered sales prices (will HA or DL buy more? DL has only bought super cheap...). Both on the 717 and A319s and I stated above, I believe A320s when the price is right; this will take NEO, MAX, and A220 production being significantly accelerated as well as enough of the latest generation delivered. I would include the E2's influence, but only if sales significantly accelerate.

I could see HA grabbing them up. Even if it's only for spares. They need them more than anyone, as there is nothing out there yet that can perform like the 717.

There are few buyers of the 717, one reason Volotea accepted them on very low cost leases. So if those buyers want them (offer the right price), Volotea will sell. In particular as A319s are very cheap and soon A320CEOs. But their business model requires either selling the 717s or using them much more. Those 2004, 2005, and 2006 delivery 717s are of particular interest to buyers. But only at discounted prices.

So expect with seventeen 717s in their fleet and only thirteen A319s, Volotea will take time.

However, a decision is coming due to required avionics upgrades. Personally, I do not think Volotea has much choice but to upgrade.

If my answer is ambiguous, it is because the timeline is also. If DL and HA want the 717s, they'll be gone by 2020. If not, these are planes with LOVs of 100k cycles and 100k hours, so Volotea's hand won't be forced until about 2030.

Lightsaber

Lightsaber




I could see HA grabbing them up, even if they only exist for spares. HA needs them more than DL due to their ability for super quick "hot" turns with extremely short flights.
 
MDGLongBeach
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:53 pm

DL has expressed constant interest in more 717s, they will pick them up very fast, I believe.
 
777PHX
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:00 pm

Does DL really want more 717s with the Skidoo jet incoming shortly?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:12 pm

777PHX wrote:
Does DL really want more 717s with the Skidoo jet incoming shortly?

Maybe. DL uses the 717 in lower utilization service than the A220 jets will be used for. So there is a mission for them. The issue is price.

WN732 wrote:
I could see HA grabbing them up, even if they only exist for spares. HA needs them more than DL due to their ability for super quick "hot" turns with extremely short flights.

HA could take a few, but not 17. They will have minimum part buys, so I do not see them buying more than 2 or 3 per year to scrap.

However, Volotea's 717s are the newer half. They are 12 to 16 years old. These are the least likely to be scrapped.

HA has over 60k cycles on a few of their 717s, so they will be looking to start scrapping their 717s and replace them lower cycle examples.

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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:19 am

lightsaber wrote:
777PHX wrote:
Does DL really want more 717s with the Skidoo jet incoming shortly?

Maybe. DL uses the 717 in lower utilization service than the A220 jets will be used for. So there is a mission for them. The issue is price.

WN732 wrote:
I could see HA grabbing them up, even if they only exist for spares. HA needs them more than DL due to their ability for super quick "hot" turns with extremely short flights.

HA could take a few, but not 17. They will have minimum part buys, so I do not see them buying more than 2 or 3 per year to scrap.

However, Volotea's 717s are the newer half. They are 12 to 16 years old. These are the least likely to be scrapped.

HA has over 60k cycles on a few of their 717s, so they will be looking to start scrapping their 717s and replace them lower cycle examples.

Lightsaber

You are all leaving Qantas out of consideration! With 23 in service, about the same size fleet as Hawaiian and an stated preference for more I wouldn't count them out of the running.

Gemuser
 
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:36 am

Between DL, HA and QF I’m sure these planes will find homes when/if Volotea decides to give them up.
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:23 am

I just need to troll in this case...

Maybe Turkmenistan is looking for more B717s... I am sure these are the ones with the lowest hours, and everybody seems to forget this operator.
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:03 am

It will come down to who is willing to pay for them. Until that time comes, there's no point in speculating on who will pick them up.
Flown on: 319, 320, 321, 712, 722, 732, 733, 734, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 763, 772, CR2, CR7, CR9, DHA, D8B, D8C, D95, E140, E145, E170, E175, E190, M82, M88, M90, S340
 
81819
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:11 am

A couple of years ago when QF were looking foe more 717's they stated the aircraft was in hot demand with the purchase price ranging from $10-13 million.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:18 am

Ty134A wrote:
I just need to troll in this case...

Maybe Turkmenistan is looking for more B717s... I am sure these are the ones with the lowest hours, and everybody seems to forget this operator.

They seem to have parked 5 out of their 7 717s.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:52 pm

Gemuser wrote:
You are all leaving Qantas out of consideration! With 23 in service, about the same size fleet as Hawaiian and an stated preference for more I wouldn't count them out of the running.

Gemuser

Qantas is being courted by the A220 and E2. Due to the advantage range would give them, I believe they will buy mostly new. I could see 2 to 4 being used by QF. If these newer 717s are sold as parts donors, excluding a severely damaged airframe, that just ends the 717 business case and we start a clock to end 717 operations in 7 years or so.

travelhound wrote:
A couple of years ago when QF were looking foe more 717's they stated the aircraft was in hot demand with the purchase price ranging from $10-13 million.

The price contradicts the first part of the statement. Since the engines are BR700s, the core is valuable as parts for business jets (or 60%+ of the engine value as parts for non-commercial duty). That means airlines were only paying $3 million to $7 million dollar premiums for commercial ready airframes. Please recall how long some of these 717s sat. They are only popular due to low pricing.

A319 pricing is plummeting. Many of the airlines back then that were looking at 717s are now looking at used A319s, in particular planes in the 12 to 15 year old range. Look at how low the values are:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1399391

The A319s going for $5 million are obviously being scrapped. If youngish (2003 through 2006 delivery) 717s were only going for $10-$13 million, airlines were only out-bidding scrappers by 30% or so. Due to the increase in production of narrow bodies and the transition to the newest engines (NEO, MAX, and A220), the 717 is in a new market.

An A220-100 saves about $10 million to $18 million per year in fuel and maintenance over a 717. This regulates the 717 to lower and lower utilization duty. Yes, it is typical that an aircraft costs more per year to fuel it than to buy it by a huge amount! JetBlue is looking to use the A220 in 12+ hour per day utilization, or $20,000 or so of fuel burned per day. Multiply the fuel savings by 365 and you get over $10 million.

This is why we are already having discussions on DL replacing the 717s despite the fact their utilization is low. The only airline that should only look at the 717 is HA in my opinion due to their extremely high utilization requiring a known mature airframe. Since the Volotea 717s will have under half the cycles on them of the HA airframes, these are aircraft with a long life ahead of them for HA.

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:54 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Ty134A wrote:
I just need to troll in this case...

Maybe Turkmenistan is looking for more B717s... I am sure these are the ones with the lowest hours, and everybody seems to forget this operator.

They seem to have parked 5 out of their 7 717s.

How is the paper on the airframes? It can cost an additional $3 to $5 million to bring an airframe back into compliance if the maintenance documentation is poor. Allegiant has learned that the hard way with Saudi A320s.

Lightsaber
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RB211trent
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Ty134A wrote:
I just need to troll in this case...

Maybe Turkmenistan is looking for more B717s... I am sure these are the ones with the lowest hours, and everybody seems to forget this operator.

They seem to have parked 5 out of their 7 717s.

How is the paper on the airframes? It can cost an additional $3 to $5 million to bring an airframe back into compliance if the maintenance documentation is poor. Allegiant has learned that the hard way with Saudi A320s.

Lightsaber

Turkmenistan are loosing their 717s.
 
81819
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:03 pm

The advantage of the717 over new build aircraft are the capital costs and its size in the market. For example QF use the 717 for regional flying in Western Australia and Queensland, where the routes are relatively long and thin and demand often only requires a single return trip per day. In these instances the cost equation favours the 717.

If we use a purchase price of $30m for a A220 and an additional $10m per aircraft for training and aircraft spares, I' d suggest the cost of heavy maintenance and higher fuel still wouldn't outweigh the capital cost associated with buying new aircraft.

With QF's provider performing their own maintenance combined with the low utilisation rate of the aircraft the economics of the aircraft may not be as bad as what we would normally expect.
 
81819
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:06 pm

With regards to QF I see an ideal domestic fleet revolving around an MOM and the A220
 
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:20 pm

RB211trent wrote:
Turkmenistan are loosing their 717s.

To whom? When?

Are these frames being actively marketed or returned to a financing company? At what price are they offered for sale or is there an auction date?

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:53 pm

travelhound wrote:
The advantage of the717 over new build aircraft are the capital costs and its size in the market. For example QF use the 717 for regional flying in Western Australia and Queensland, where the routes are relatively long and thin and demand often only requires a single return trip per day. In these instances the cost equation favours the 717.

If we use a purchase price of $30m for a A220 and an additional $10m per aircraft for training and aircraft spares, I' d suggest the cost of heavy maintenance and higher fuel still wouldn't outweigh the capital cost associated with buying new aircraft.

With QF's provider performing their own maintenance combined with the low utilisation rate of the aircraft the economics of the aircraft may not be as bad as what we would normally expect.

I don't think we would see the A220 replacing the 717s in QF anytime soon, especially not for the WA based ones. The QF 717s operate in some of the toughest and hottest climates in the world, and any new replacement has to prove that it can sustain years of operations in such conditions.

Only the toughest planes are needed in the Australian outback FIFO flying. That may be a reason why so many Fokkers end up in Australia.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:18 pm

Agreed re Qantas and the 717. I highly doubt they are buying A220 anytime soon. The 717 is perfect for the nature of flying they do and Qantas is unlikely to be stumping up any significant capex to replace their regional fleet. That flies in the face of their capital restraint over the past few years. Buying new simply does not make sense for them.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:18 pm

Agreed re Qantas and the 717. I highly doubt they are buying A220 anytime soon. The 717 is perfect for the nature of flying they do and Qantas is unlikely to be stumping up any significant capex to replace their regional fleet. That flies in the face of their capital restraint over the past few years. Buying new simply does not make sense for them.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
DeltaMD95
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:20 pm

Are the Volotea 717s owned or leased? If the latter, does anyone know when these aircraft come off of lease? IIRC, some/all of these aircraft were owned by BCC which is the same lessor as the DL fleet. Perhaps that could be a factor in the transition arrangements.
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)
 
flyingqueen
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:36 pm

Hoe does Volotea's cost structure compare to other ULCC's in Europe?
 
RB211trent
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:40 pm

lightsaber wrote:
RB211trent wrote:
Turkmenistan are loosing their 717s.

To whom? When?

Are these frames being actively marketed or returned to a financing company? At what price are they offered for sale or is there an auction date?

Lightsaber

Sold on for parting, you can guess who
 
n7371f
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:05 am

Delta is taking the Turkmen 717's for parts.
 
danair380
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:46 am

I might also be of note that QF doesn't just use the 717's for regional flying. 12 out the 20 717 are 2 class config and most of the CBR flights from BNE and MEL (and some from SYD) use these 717's. QF also subs these 717's in place of 737's on some flights that don't require the capacity of the 737, mainly to and from ADL to BNE, SYD, MEL and PER so the 717 is quite multi purpose in the QF fleet which is a reason why QF would be interested in more of them.
 
DeltaMD95
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:51 am

n7371f wrote:
Delta is taking the Turkmen 717's for parts.


Is this because of the condition the Turkmen 717s were in? Too much cabin overhaul, etc. Or more so because DL is only interested in parts going forward?
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:24 am

DeltaMD95 wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Delta is taking the Turkmen 717's for parts.


Is this because of the condition the Turkmen 717s were in? Too much cabin overhaul, etc. Or more so because DL is only interested in parts going forward?

It is unlikely that the paper is in order. Therefore millions in extra work to make these certified for commercial duty.

Going forward, it is likely others will outbid DL for serviceable frames.

Lightsaber
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Cointrin330
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Re: Volotea 717, how long?

Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:08 am

I flew Volotea in June from Heraklion to Naples. Great flight (left 15 minutes early) and arrived 25 minutes ahead of schedule. Nice crew. The 717 I was on was really beat up inside.

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