Question on QR
The A388 service was on trail out of Perth which would end in April, however July bookings for next year have A388 loaded.
So guessing the service is set to stay?

Why do the ME3 have mixed results when it comes to PER? Some make it work, some don't. Always a curious case for me.
It'd be very much appreciated if anyone can shed light on this.

I only fly to JNB from from SYD through PER, so I don't have much PER knowledge.

Please note that this is not a why don't more airlines fly to PER question.

aldrigsomandre wrote:

Why do the ME3 have mixed results when it comes to PER? Some make it work, some don't. Always a curious case for me.
It'd be very much appreciated if anyone can shed light on this.

I only fly to JNB from from SYD through PER, so I don't have much PER knowledge.

Please note that this is not a why don't more airlines fly to PER question.

Well EY is having its own issues, not really a Perth one.
However for them QR didnt help when they came into the market... prices were really cheap and its a good product.

I know when I flew EY dragging kids through Abu Dhabi airport at 2am wasnt much fun, however the later QR/EK flights get in around 6am then off to connecting flights.
So seeing QR offering europe for under $1100 return has been pretty common where as when there was just EK/EY most of the time you were looking around $1700.

So I dont really see it as one thing, just a mixture of a few.

waoz1 wrote:

aldrigsomandre wrote:

Why do the ME3 have mixed results when it comes to PER? Some make it work, some don't. Always a curious case for me.
It'd be very much appreciated if anyone can shed light on this.

I only fly to JNB from from SYD through PER, so I don't have much PER knowledge.

Please note that this is not a why don't more airlines fly to PER question.

Well EY is having its own issues, not really a Perth one.
However for them QR didnt help when they came into the market... prices were really cheap and its a good product.

I know when I flew EY dragging kids through Abu Dhabi airport at 2am wasnt much fun, however the later QR/EK flights get in around 6am then off to connecting flights.
So seeing QR offering europe for under $1100 return has been pretty common where as when there was just EK/EY most of the time you were looking around $1700.

So I dont really see it as one thing, just a mixture of a few.

That sounds a lot like SYD. Just last week I priced a Euro trip for May / June 2019, QR was $1325. Choosing a cheaper day would have brought it down to ~$1250. And that was flying back from LHR, where the UK departure tax adds a staggering £78 to the Y fare.

Little surprise then EY is dropping an A380, Y obviously has excess capacity. Haha, and with property prices tumbling and people suddenly not as "rich" as they thought they were...

MooLor wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

aldrigsomandre wrote:

Why do the ME3 have mixed results when it comes to PER? Some make it work, some don't. Always a curious case for me.
It'd be very much appreciated if anyone can shed light on this.

I only fly to JNB from from SYD through PER, so I don't have much PER knowledge.

Please note that this is not a why don't more airlines fly to PER question.

Well EY is having its own issues, not really a Perth one.
However for them QR didnt help when they came into the market... prices were really cheap and its a good product.

I know when I flew EY dragging kids through Abu Dhabi airport at 2am wasnt much fun, however the later QR/EK flights get in around 6am then off to connecting flights.
So seeing QR offering europe for under $1100 return has been pretty common where as when there was just EK/EY most of the time you were looking around $1700.

So I dont really see it as one thing, just a mixture of a few.

That sounds a lot like SYD. Just last week I priced a Euro trip for May / June 2019, QR was $1325. Choosing a cheaper day would have brought it down to ~$1250. And that was flying back from LHR, where the UK departure tax adds a staggering £78 to the Y fare.

Little surprise then EY is dropping an A380, Y obviously has excess capacity. Haha, and with property prices tumbling and people suddenly not as "rich" as they thought they were...

Tellingly, the second A380 that SYD received was the one that was servicing MEL, and that's not being reinstated.

Also the aircraft being downgraded is the afternoon service out of SYD, which is now competing with a QR flight at a similar time that never used to be there.

Obzerva wrote:

Tellingly, the second A380 that SYD received was the one that was servicing MEL, and that's not being reinstated.

Also the aircraft being downgraded is the afternoon service out of SYD, which is now competing with a QR flight at a similar time that never used to be there.

That flight was never the best performer as observed when EY upgauged the later flight to 77W and 388 first.

MEL has an even bigger downgauge when 789 will operate the entire route from 28 Oct replacing 77W on EY460/1. Compared to the old days when they operated daily A388 and 77W, it's a loss of 11 F, 54 C, 167 Y seats in the market.

I've heard rumours of significant downgrade in service quality and food in C class is barely edible; if true they're indeed paying their price for their own misery.

Michael

Most Airports have now released their Year ending June 2018 stats so here is a break down for the top 4

Domestic:
Sydney: 27,636,00 +2.0%
Melbourne: 25,840,000 +2.5%
Brisbane: 17,505,000 +1.55%
Perth: 9,327,038 +1.1% - First FY of domestic growth since 2011 and even better since January Perth Domestic traffic has soared up 4.4% and is now Australia's fastest growing airport for domestic traffic

International
Sydney: 16,372,000 +5.9%
Melbourne: 10,866,000 + 9.4% - Strongest international growth on record, added almost 940,000 passengers in a single year
Brisbane: 5,930,000 +5.1%
Perth: 4,364,573 -.9%

International passenger numbers for May have been released by BITRE. https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1805.pdf

Notable highlights:

QF had a significant increase in marketshare
VA's numbers are just dire. <50% LF for MEL-HKG. Their 777 routes are also significantly underperforming.
UA had a terrible month
SQ's changes for CBR has highlighted that CBR continues to be a weak market despite going to a daily service. The numbers they're getting for MEL-WLG also underscores why CBR-WLG was dropped.
There are still only 35-45 pax on a QR flight between SYD and CBR.
International pax through PER decreased 1.9%.

Seems QF does well on Santiago, with both inbound and outbound seat utilisation of over 90% for May. Maybe a 787 will be too small for this route come 747 retirement?

How does UA have <60% LF when DL/QF have >80%? Is it due to the lack of connecting partners in AU?

a320fan wrote:

Seems QF does well on Santiago, with both inbound and outbound seat utilisation of over 90% for May. Maybe a 787 will be too small for this route come 747 retirement?

Possibly depends on CASA as well. Could run 787 from both SYD and MEL or 380 but might depend if they can get the yield to justify F, or whether 787s are too J heavy.

getluv wrote:

International passenger numbers for May have been released by BITRE. https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... y_1805.pdf

Notable highlights:

QF had a significant increase in marketshare
VA's numbers are just dire. <50% LF for MEL-HKG. Their 777 routes are also significantly underperforming.
UA had a terrible month
SQ's changes for CBR has highlighted that CBR continues to be a weak market despite going to a daily service. The numbers they're getting for MEL-WLG also underscores why CBR-WLG was dropped.
There are still only 35-45 pax on a QR flight between SYD and CBR.
International pax through PER decreased 1.9%.

downdata wrote:

How does UA have <60% LF when DL/QF have >80%? Is it due to the lack of connecting partners in AU?

I'd say in the case of United the extra Houston route is responsible for their load factor drop, as transfer passengers are routed away from LAX and SFO.

ME3 inbound loads all pretty horrifying at EK 50.7%; EY 45.5% and QR 47.8%. No wonder they are cutting back. The honeymoon is well and truly over.

Just remember May is by far the weakest month for international traffic, especially inbound, ME3 inbound and outbound load factors are all within 1-3% of last year. United load factors last year were 65% inbound 70% outbound so not a great drop considering the new route.

Overall load factor was the same as last year so new seats are being taken up at a similar level.

log0008 wrote:

Just remember May is by far the weakest month for international traffic, especially inbound, ME3 inbound and outbound load factors are all within 1-3% of last year. United load factors last year were 65% inbound 70% outbound so not a great drop considering the new route.

Overall load factor was the same as last year so new seats are being taken up at a similar level.

While May is traditionally a quiet month it is also a critical month that determines if a route is ultimately viable. For instance, all the money made in the high season can be lost in a quiet month like May due to the fixed costs the airline still has to pay.

Regarding UA, the LF for SYD-IAH was ~50%. For a 33% increase in capacity they only got a 15% increase in pax. I would say they're weak across the board. It also doesn't discount the fact that apart from VA, the other operators to the US are performing significantly better.

a320fan wrote:

Seems QF does well on Santiago, with both inbound and outbound seat utilisation of over 90% for May. Maybe a 787 will be too small for this route come 747 retirement?

Frequency is currently 4pw (with seasonal increases). I would expect a 789 would mean the frequency would move to 7pw, giving more options, with same capacity, and possibly higher yield for QF.

Anyone know why JQ's new BNE-AYQ service has a 75minute turn in AYQ? Seems excessively long for JQ who try to turn their aircraft around quickly. Their SYD and MEL services only have 35min-40min turns in AYQ...

Qantas16 wrote:

Anyone know why JQ's new BNE-AYQ service has a 75minute turn in AYQ? Seems excessively long for JQ who try to turn their aircraft around quickly. Their SYD and MEL services only have 35min-40min turns in AYQ...

its because its a new route, and they don't spend months and months tracking an imaginary flight like qantas did with the PER-LHR monitoring winds and what not. and the fact that they block an hour into the flight time going up also has a big thing to do with it.

LF for QF&CX on HKG route is quite good if compare to VA.

I wonder what’s the LF solely on SYD-HKG.

jman wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

Anyone know why JQ's new BNE-AYQ service has a 75minute turn in AYQ? Seems excessively long for JQ who try to turn their aircraft around quickly. Their SYD and MEL services only have 35min-40min turns in AYQ...

its because its a new route, and they don't spend months and months tracking an imaginary flight like qantas did with the PER-LHR monitoring winds and what not. and the fact that they block an hour into the flight time going up also has a big thing to do with it.

It becomes 35 minutes effective from NW18-19.

EK have announced changes to MEL and BNE

DXB-SIN-BNE will now leave at 2115 with a day flight SIN-BNE 1030ish - 1930 arrival in BNE

The 2nd direct flight will now leave at around 0100 for a 2130.

Cant remember the MEL flight change completely aside from that the SIN-MEL will now arrive MEL just after midnight instead of in the morning.

No changes to outbound from what I saw. I thought it would be changes to get rid of the excessive time on the ground, but it doesnt seem that way. At least not yet perhaps.

qantas747 wrote:

EK have announced changes to MEL and BNE

DXB-SIN-BNE will now leave at 2115 with a day flight SIN-BNE 1030ish - 1930 arrival in BNE

The 2nd direct flight will now leave at around 0100 for a 2130.

Cant remember the MEL flight change completely aside from that the SIN-MEL will now arrive MEL just after midnight instead of in the morning.

No changes to outbound from what I saw. I thought it would be changes to get rid of the excessive time on the ground, but it doesnt seem that way. At least not yet perhaps.

So if they don't change the outbound flights, it is most likely the routing for each aircraft will be DXB-SIN-BNE-DXB and DXB-BNE-SIN-DXB... The 2130 arrival in BNE makes more sense than the current 1730 and aligns with the services to MEL that also has 2x daily direct services. Still surprised they aren't doing anything about the ~14 hour ground time for the EK434/435 service though...

eamondzhang wrote:

Obzerva wrote:

Tellingly, the second A380 that SYD received was the one that was servicing MEL, and that's not being reinstated.

Also the aircraft being downgraded is the afternoon service out of SYD, which is now competing with a QR flight at a similar time that never used to be there.

That flight was never the best performer as observed when EY upgauged the later flight to 77W and 388 first.

MEL has an even bigger downgauge when 789 will operate the entire route from 28 Oct replacing 77W on EY460/1. Compared to the old days when they operated daily A388 and 77W, it's a loss of 11 F, 54 C, 167 Y seats in the market.

I've heard rumours of significant downgrade in service quality and food in C class is barely edible; if true they're indeed paying their price for their own misery.

Michael

EY MEL downgrade is happening from the 1st Oct.

Qantas16 wrote:

qantas747 wrote:

EK have announced changes to MEL and BNE

DXB-SIN-BNE will now leave at 2115 with a day flight SIN-BNE 1030ish - 1930 arrival in BNE

The 2nd direct flight will now leave at around 0100 for a 2130.

Cant remember the MEL flight change completely aside from that the SIN-MEL will now arrive MEL just after midnight instead of in the morning.

No changes to outbound from what I saw. I thought it would be changes to get rid of the excessive time on the ground, but it doesnt seem that way. At least not yet perhaps.

So if they don't change the outbound flights, it is most likely the routing for each aircraft will be DXB-SIN-BNE-DXB and DXB-BNE-SIN-DXB... The 2130 arrival in BNE makes more sense than the current 1730 and aligns with the services to MEL that also has 2x daily direct services. Still surprised they aren't doing anything about the ~14 hour ground time for the EK434/435 service though...

With the new BNE schedule there doesn't look like much they can do with the groundtime of 434/435 if they want to keep the 388 on those particular timings. With 430/433 and 432/431 now operating DXB-BNE-SIN-DXB and DXB-SIN-BNE-DXB workings respectively it makes it unlikely to upgauge those flights unless they both become 388 which I can't see happening.

qantas747 wrote:

EK have announced changes to MEL and BNE
Cant remember the MEL flight change completely aside from that the SIN-MEL will now arrive MEL just after midnight instead of in the morning.
.

EK404 will depart SIN at 2:00 pm and arrive into MEL at 11:50pm

In an article from The Australian today, JB said that he hoped to add one more domestic route before he leaves VA. Any predictions? Dare I suggest NLK from SYD or BNE, just to give one final jab to NZ?

See:
- https://issuu.com/queenslandairports.co ... august2018.
- https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... 2a9844879b.

Cheers,

C.

qantas747 wrote:

No changes to outbound from what I saw. I thought it would be changes to get rid of the excessive time on the ground, but it doesnt seem that way. At least not yet perhaps.

EK is stuck with too many planes at the moment, maximising utilisation is clearly not a priority. SYD has a 77W sat on the tarmac for 23 hours a day, plus one A380 for 12 hours and another for 8 hours.

qantas747 wrote:

EK have announced changes to MEL and BNE

DXB-SIN-BNE will now leave at 2115 with a day flight SIN-BNE 1030ish - 1930 arrival in BNE

The 2nd direct flight will now leave at around 0100 for a 2130.

Cant remember the MEL flight change completely aside from that the SIN-MEL will now arrive MEL just after midnight instead of in the morning.

No changes to outbound from what I saw. I thought it would be changes to get rid of the excessive time on the ground, but it doesnt seem that way. At least not yet perhaps.

Not that I doubt you, but do you have a link for more info? For a dtae these changes are happening etc?

Bluebird191 wrote:

qantas747 wrote:

EK have announced changes to MEL and BNE

DXB-SIN-BNE will now leave at 2115 with a day flight SIN-BNE 1030ish - 1930 arrival in BNE

The 2nd direct flight will now leave at around 0100 for a 2130.

Cant remember the MEL flight change completely aside from that the SIN-MEL will now arrive MEL just after midnight instead of in the morning.

No changes to outbound from what I saw. I thought it would be changes to get rid of the excessive time on the ground, but it doesnt seem that way. At least not yet perhaps.

Not that I doubt you, but do you have a link for more info? For a dtae these changes are happening etc?

No link unfortunately (why im struggling to remember). An email came out to the trade. Effective from 28 oct if I remember right. It surprised me that they sent it well before updating the GDS.
Perhaps there is more to come

planemanofnz wrote:

In an article from The Australian today, JB said that he hoped to add one more domestic route before he leaves VA. Any predictions? Dare I suggest NLK from SYD or BNE, just to give one final jab to NZ?

See:
- https://issuu.com/queenslandairports.co ... august2018.
- https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... 2a9844879b.

Cheers,

C.

I thought NLK was a govt subsidy route, and interested airlines bid for it?

Disappointing loads from VA for sure. How do they compare to previous years?

While May is clearly a very slow month, with CX and QF dipping into the mid-ish 70s, I wonder if VA's switch to less desirable times on the MEL-HKG route had an impact? A shame because the onboard product is getting rave reviews. Perhaps the reversion to better times will improve things.

LA routes, can't think of a reason. Purely anecdotal but several mates and colleagues that normally use NZ for their annual US holiday recently switched to VA and loved it. Direct MEL flights really do suck out the appeal of the AKL stopover just to use NZ. Yet the loads suggest something otherwise.

Maybe VA could do with a smaller long haul jet sooner rather than later. Either the 359 or 789 would seem ideal.

planemanofnz wrote:

In an article from The Australian today, JB said that he hoped to add one more domestic route before he leaves VA. Any predictions? Dare I suggest NLK from SYD or BNE, just to give one final jab to NZ?

I can't imagine that VA is going to add another loss-making route like one to NLK just to "give one final jab to NZ". Any airline that determines its network based on revenge doesn't deserve to make money anyway. NZ operates to NLK under some kind of contractual arrangement with the Federal government - I doubt that support would be available to VA as well. It is hardly a goldmine of a route . . .

No airline will operate NLK without the subsidy and next round I predict Air NZ and Nauru Airlines to compete for it.

DavidByrne wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

In an article from The Australian today, JB said that he hoped to add one more domestic route before he leaves VA. Any predictions? Dare I suggest NLK from SYD or BNE, just to give one final jab to NZ?

I can't imagine that VA is going to add another loss-making route like one to NLK just to "give one final jab to NZ". Any airline that determines its network based on revenge doesn't deserve to make money anyway. NZ operates to NLK under some kind of contractual arrangement with the Federal government - I doubt that support would be available to VA as well. It is hardly a goldmine of a route . . .

NZ fly to NLK ex-SYD & BNE the contract was renewed not that long ago, but prior to NLK being considered a domestic route.

Now that NLK is domestic it will be interesting to see if VA/QF can bid for th route at lower costs than NZ. Especially now NZ have cancelled AKL-NLK. But god no one would fly there with out a contract

DavidByrne wrote:

I can't imagine that VA is going to add another loss-making route like one to NLK just to "give one final jab to NZ".

I was joking - agree VA to NLK isn't JB's final route.

Obzerva wrote:

I thought NLK was a govt subsidy route ...

Yep, but NZ does have a stake in the flights though.

smi0006 wrote:

NLK ... god no one would fly there with out a contract.

3C is looking at launching AKL - NLK in the future.

Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:

Obzerva wrote:

I thought NLK was a govt subsidy route ...

Yep, but NZ does have a stake in the flights though.
C.

NZ's only stake is if the A320 assigned to fly the route on the day can be used elsewhere at a higher rate of return. The distances involved aren't that great and if somebody else is picking up the tab...

eta unknown wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

Obzerva wrote:

I thought NLK was a govt subsidy route ...

Yep, but NZ does have a stake in the flights though.
C.

NZ's only stake is if the A320 assigned to fly the route on the day can be used elsewhere at a higher rate of return. The distances involved aren't that great and if somebody else is picking up the tab...

If NZ ever lost interest can imagine this becoming a QantasLink A320 route when they eventually make their way east.

Obzerva wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

Yep, but NZ does have a stake in the flights though.
C.

NZ's only stake is if the A320 assigned to fly the route on the day can be used elsewhere at a higher rate of return. The distances involved aren't that great and if somebody else is picking up the tab...

If NZ ever lost interest can imagine this becoming a QantasLink A320 route when they eventually make their way east.

On a side note, those Qantas Link A320s look fantastic in the new livery - saw one in person last week. Pick of the bunch for the new colours, I'd say.

Obzerva wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

Yep, but NZ does have a stake in the flights though.
C.

NZ's only stake is if the A320 assigned to fly the route on the day can be used elsewhere at a higher rate of return. The distances involved aren't that great and if somebody else is picking up the tab...

If NZ ever lost interest can imagine this becoming a QantasLink A320 route when they eventually make their way east.

Or QF with the 738? I don't think it should be presumed that QF A320's will make their way east... if they keep a fleet of just 2 I doubt we'll ever see them except maybe for MX. The contract isn't up for a while IIRC so we'll see what happens when it is but I would be surprised to see QF jump at it... as someone else said, I'd say it'll be between NZ and ON and I hope (for the people of Norfolk Island) it stays NZ!

Qantas16 wrote:

Or QF with the 738?

Some other possibilities:

1. The LCC's, like JQ and TT, who could probably undercut NZ, QF and VA on cost?
2. 3C, who may get 734 combi's soon - a better size and make-up for NLK's market?
3. An island carrier, if offering a tag in the opposite direction (FJ on SYD-NLK-NAN)? - though, that'd be cabotage?

Cheers,

C.

thankyou

planemanofnz wrote:

Qantas16 wrote:

Or QF with the 738?

Some other possibilities:

1. The LCC's, like JQ and TT, who could probably undercut NZ, QF and VA on cost?
2. 3C, who may get 734 combi's soon - a better size and make-up for NLK's market?
3. An island carrier, if offering a tag in the opposite direction (FJ on SYD-NLK-NAN)? - though, that'd be cabotage?

Cheers,

C.

NLK is not (yet) a cost sensitive market so full-service carriers can still make money. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if the contract to fly these routes requires some set level of service that TT/JQ may not be prepared to meet.

Bluebird191 wrote:

Not that I doubt you, but do you have a link for more info? For a dtae these changes are happening etc?

These are now loaded in Emirates booking system, no change to BNE-DXB but new DXB-BNE timetable:

EK434 DXB 1025 - 0640 BNE A380
EK430 DXB 0230 - 2245 BNE 77W
EK432 DXB 2115 - 0825 SIN 1010 - 1940 BNE 77W

As we figured, based on that timetable, the EK432 inbound has to operate the EK431 outbound (so DXB-SIN-BNE-DXB) and then the EK430 has to operate the EK433 (DXB-BNE-SIN-DXB).

For Melbourne, the only change appears to be to the SIN flight.

EK404 DXB 0100 - 1210 SIN 1355 - 0020+1 MEL

Thanks Qantas16

planemanofnz wrote:

3. An island carrier, if offering a tag in the opposite direction (FJ on SYD-NLK-NAN)? - though, that'd be cabotage?

Now this would be a sensible idea from a policy perspective. Possibly would also allow the subsidy to be reduced/removed.

a19901213 wrote:

LF for QF&CX on HKG route is quite good if compare to VA.

I wonder what’s the LF solely on SYD-HKG.

Only anecdotal, but I flew VA HKG-SYD about three weeks ago and the flight was almost completely full with a few tour groups. I flew SYD-HKG two weeks ago and only 93 onboard (so around 1/3 LF). Whilst economy was very empty (only 15 pax in the rear cabin), business was packed out (maybe upgrades or targeted offers to select high status FFs).

qf2220 wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

3. An island carrier, if offering a tag in the opposite direction (FJ on SYD-NLK-NAN)? - though, that'd be cabotage?[/quote
Now this would be a sensible idea from a policy perspective. Possibly would also allow the subsidy to be reduced/removed.

I know it's just a thought you're making, but if FJ were to do something like that, it would be a sure fire way to lose money. Even if they managed to fill the aircraft between SYD and NLK, there would be absolutely no market between NLK and NAN. If they had down time in SYD to slot a SYD/NLK/SYD rotation in, they could perhaps bid for it, but as it stands they don't have the aircraft to do it. I know they have 737 overnights in SYD, but doing a NLK flight on those available times won't happen.

Qantas16 wrote:

EK404 DXB 0100 - 1210 SIN 1355 - 0020+1 MEL

With 0020 arrival from SIN either EK407 or EK405 has to have a schedule change or otherwise the plane will be parked for a whooping 18 hours (assuming EK408/9 arrives/departs at the same time).

Michael

eamondzhang wrote:

With 0020 arrival from SIN either EK407 or EK405 has to have a schedule change or otherwise the plane will be parked for a whooping 18 hours (assuming EK408/9 arrives/departs at the same time).

I think I understand the strategy. EK is perfectly placed to operate services from the East Coast to NLK. Why didn't they think of that before?

Had a wifi equipped QF BSI 738 on MEL-BNE this weekend and the connection was fast, consistent and hugely convenient.

Then I got an old 738 on the return and it really did put into perspective how dated that product is! I really hope they consider installing the XZ fleet product on some of the older 737s which are in dire need of a freshen up.