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PlaneBoo
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 2:30 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:25 am

a19901213 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
The only new routes I can see are: - Seoul - Hanoi - Dallas-Fort Worth - Osaka - Mumbai ...

I agree with those, but could also see in the medium-term:

- ADD (ET is planning to fly to MEL, potentially via SEZ)
- CEB
- HND (NH has said that MEL is on its radar after SYD)
- IST (TK says that MEL will follow SYD flights, via Asia)
- PNH (A “Skyscanner Unserved Route of the Week”)
- SUV (FJ's new MAX's could tap business ties, like ANZ)
- VLI

See:
- https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/art ... ional-jets.
- https://www.ausbt.com.au/with-boeing-78 ... -australia.
- https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50503667/n ... -take-off/.
- https://www.anna.aero/2017/11/29/melbou ... jump-onto/.

There are a few other potential routes, which are less likely:

- DAC (BG was rumoured to be considering Australia, but SYD)
- EZE (AR is considering Australia - MEL has to be an option)
- HNL (HA is considering MEL, but not in the short-mid term)
- JED (SV just hired a new Australia GSA, and are expanding)
- JNB (If QF decided to split JNB between SYD/MEL with 789's)
- KTM (RA was rumoured to be considering Australia, but SYD)
- NBO (If KQ ever sorts itself out and gets back in good shape)

IndianicWorld wrote:
- Additinal China routes, including Hainan Island ...

Specifically, the following (many already served from SYD):

- FOC
- HAK
- KMG
- NKG
- TSN
- WUH
- SYX

Cheers,

C.


If it was to be Japan it won’t be HND. No slots available.


What about a 3-4 weekly seasonal service to Sapporo during the ski season? Many people are going there instead of North America and Europe nowadays...
 
jman
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:33 am

QF744ER wrote:
There was talk a while back about JQ installing slimline seats and increasing capacity on selected A320's, are these works still ongoing or have they been completed yet?

I've flown on 3 different A32x's recently and they've all had different seats.


There is 5 different versions of the A320 at Jetstar. All bar a select few will be installed with the slimline seats and converted to the 186 pax version by the end of 2020 when the A321NEOs will be delivered. You as a passenger will not know which aircraft you will be getting unless you really read on the Jetstar website when booking your ticket carefully
 
moa999
Posts: 962
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:55 am

Where will they show it on the JQ website?
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:20 am

I suspect a profit around $1.8b.

I can't see them ordering anymore planes. Their CAPEX for the next three years has been set with the 787-9's to 2020 and than the Jetstar A321LR's from there onwards.

Aircraft upgrades announced. 744's leaving the fleet in 2020. All of the lounges have been upgraded.

Other than the headline profit figure, I suspect the results are going to be relatively boring.
 
jman
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:27 am

moa999 wrote:
Where will they show it on the JQ website?


when you select a flight it tells you the aircraft type, 4 will say A320-200 and 1 will be 32T (representing the 186pax version)
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:17 am

a19901213 wrote:
If it was to be Japan it won’t be HND. No slots available.

Actually, additional HND slots will be coming online - 39,000 international slots p/a, to be precise.

This slot expansion will take place in time for the 2020 Olympic Games, so MEL - HND by 2020?

See: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ows-401552.

Cheers,

C.
 
TasFlyer
Posts: 191
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:20 am

jman wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Where will they show it on the JQ website?


when you select a flight it tells you the aircraft type, 4 will say A320-200 and 1 will be 32T (representing the 186pax version)


How many 32T are in operation?
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:21 am

travelhound wrote:
I suspect a profit around $1.8b.

I can't see them ordering anymore planes. Their CAPEX for the next three years has been set with the 787-9's to 2020 and than the Jetstar A321LR's from there onwards.

Aircraft upgrades announced. 744's leaving the fleet in 2020. All of the lounges have been upgraded.

Other than the headline profit figure, I suspect the results are going to be relatively boring.


I believe their guidance was for $1.55-1.6B. If it was ~$1.8B they would have advised the market because that’s quite material. Still a record though. I wonder where their critics will be at because they can’t blame oil prices.

Because the news will definitely attract click bait and anti-corporate sentiment, I’m guessing there’ll be some announcements to soften the blow of haters.
Last edited by getluv on Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
I'm that bad type.
 
Qf648
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:23 am

brucetiki wrote:
utaussiefan wrote:
brucetiki wrote:

From memory, Qantas used an A340 for their old ADL-SIN routes. How long did QF have the A340's for?

Qantas have never had the A340, ADL-SIN was an A330 or 767 and it ran via SYD in a triangle route. ADL-SYD-SIN-ADL.


I swear they had a 4 engined, single level aircraft in the mid-2000's. I recall seeing a relative off from ADL in 2006, and was pretty sure that it was an A340 - either that or I was seeing things at the time :D


Was singapore flying the 340 out of ADL. Was my first flight on a jet. QF used a 330 on Syd-adl-sin-adl-syd. Its is why QF will not do international out of Adelaide. The market is too small, and its easier to fly though MEL or SYD if you want to fly on QF metal.
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:00 pm

getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:
I suspect a profit around $1.8b.

I can't see them ordering anymore planes. Their CAPEX for the next three years has been set with the 787-9's to 2020 and than the Jetstar A321LR's from there onwards.

Aircraft upgrades announced. 744's leaving the fleet in 2020. All of the lounges have been upgraded.

Other than the headline profit figure, I suspect the results are going to be relatively boring.


I believe their guidance was for $1.55-1.6B. If it was ~$1.8B they would have advised the market because that’s quite material. Still a record though. I wonder where their critics will be at because they can’t blame oil prices.

Because the news will definitely attract click bait and anti-corporate sentiment, I’m guessing there’ll be some announcements to soften the blow of haters.


It will be a record profit this year, although I suspect high oil prices will increase costs and consequentially soften demand.

I suspect we won't be seeing another record profit for quite a few years.
 
log0008
Posts: 484
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:20 pm

Record profit - watch the domestic sector, word is domestic sector yields are up quite a bit, possibly offsetting a slight decline in international profit.

Doubt there will be much news, maybe something on A320neo deliveries for JQ?
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3385
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:42 pm

Seems to be the first renders I have seen of the new AVV international terminal, with description of the passenger flow arrangements.

http://www.starweekly.com.au/news/jet-s ... at-avalon/

I do wish them luck with this venture. Seems a harder sell really, but if the KUL route works out I do hope that other Air Asia routes to BKK and DPS can be opened up.
 
log0008
Posts: 484
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:44 pm

Going to have a new charter operator using 767-300's from AVV soon......
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3385
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:49 pm

log0008 wrote:
Going to have a new charter operator using 767-300's from AVV soon......


I heard this from a friend recently but didn’t take it seriously at first. I guess we will see.
 
jman
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:51 pm

TasFlyer wrote:
jman wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Where will they show it on the JQ website?


when you select a flight it tells you the aircraft type, 4 will say A320-200 and 1 will be 32T (representing the 186pax version)


How many 32T are in operation?


Nearly 20 of them so more than a third of them
 
log0008
Posts: 484
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:52 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Going to have a new charter operator using 767-300's from AVV soon......


I heard this from a friend recently but didn’t take it seriously at first. I guess we will see.


Seems to be related to crown i think
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3385
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:20 pm

log0008 wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Going to have a new charter operator using 767-300's from AVV soon......


I heard this from a friend recently but didn’t take it seriously at first. I guess we will see.


Seems to be related to crown i think


When I was first told there was no mention of Crown, but even then it doesn’t seem to be clear how that would be beneficial to them.

A few factors that confuse the most really are:

- Crown already have a fleet of business jets aimed at bringing in high rollers. These will soon be based out of the impressive new Melbourne Airport Jetport, which should be opening fairly soon.
- Crown on its own doesn’t seem to need 767 sized jets, given its Melbourne hotels are already operating at over 90% occupancy and really seems to have its market covered well as it is.
- AVV is not exactly the most convenient entry point for pax looking to go to Crown.
- Even if Crown had potentially looked at Macau flights for Australians, it makes no sense these days as it sold out of its investments there.
Last edited by IndianicWorld on Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:27 pm

travelhound wrote:
getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:
I suspect a profit around $1.8b.

I can't see them ordering anymore planes. Their CAPEX for the next three years has been set with the 787-9's to 2020 and than the Jetstar A321LR's from there onwards.

Aircraft upgrades announced. 744's leaving the fleet in 2020. All of the lounges have been upgraded.

Other than the headline profit figure, I suspect the results are going to be relatively boring.


I believe their guidance was for $1.55-1.6B. If it was ~$1.8B they would have advised the market because that’s quite material. Still a record though. I wonder where their critics will be at because they can’t blame oil prices.

Because the news will definitely attract click bait and anti-corporate sentiment, I’m guessing there’ll be some announcements to soften the blow of haters.


It will be a record profit this year, although I suspect high oil prices will increase costs and consequentially soften demand.

I suspect we won't be seeing another record profit for quite a few years.


There's also a strong correlation between higher commodity prices and a stronger Australian economy. Domestic prices are trending upwards and VA won't be adding any capacity as they cover more flights to NZ. Also the lack of international airlines adding capacity to Australia might see QF International yields improve as well. I would assume there's still plenty of upside.
I'm that bad type.
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:37 pm

getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:
getluv wrote:

I believe their guidance was for $1.55-1.6B. If it was ~$1.8B they would have advised the market because that’s quite material. Still a record though. I wonder where their critics will be at because they can’t blame oil prices.

Because the news will definitely attract click bait and anti-corporate sentiment, I’m guessing there’ll be some announcements to soften the blow of haters.


It will be a record profit this year, although I suspect high oil prices will increase costs and consequentially soften demand.

I suspect we won't be seeing another record profit for quite a few years.


There's also a strong correlation between higher commodity prices and a stronger Australian economy. Domestic prices are trending upwards and VA won't be adding any capacity as they cover more flights to NZ. Also the lack of international airlines adding capacity to Australia might see QF International yields improve as well. I would assume there's still plenty of upside.


Agreed, but........there is always going to be a lag in the flow on effects of higher commodity prices into the economy.

From the latest BITRE figures, growth in the June month for domestic flights hovered around the 0.5% mark. In comparison the domestic market is currently tracking around the 2.5%, suggesting a rather dramatic softening of the market.

If we consider new investments in the resource sector really started to gain momentum at the beginning of this year (people on the ground actually building stuff), flat growth would suggest other parts of the economy (manufacturing) could be experiencing negative growth.

With VA transferring aircraft from the domestic to trans-Tasman market, we could even be seeing a decline in aircraft capacity.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7511
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:41 pm

Qf648 wrote:
brucetiki wrote:
utaussiefan wrote:
Qantas have never had the A340, ADL-SIN was an A330 or 767 and it ran via SYD in a triangle route. ADL-SYD-SIN-ADL.


I swear they had a 4 engined, single level aircraft in the mid-2000's. I recall seeing a relative off from ADL in 2006, and was pretty sure that it was an A340 - either that or I was seeing things at the time :D


Was singapore flying the 340 out of ADL. Was my first flight on a jet. QF used a 330 on Syd-adl-sin-adl-syd. Its is why QF will not do international out of Adelaide. The market is too small, and its easier to fly though MEL or SYD if you want to fly on QF metal.



SQ retired their A343’s by 2003, I think they did fly to ADL at some point? Certainly not 2006 though although there were by then A345’s in the fleet, those certainly didn’t go to ADL though.
 
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allrite
Posts: 2614
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:57 pm

VapourTrails wrote:
As for app chat, but is it a bot or a person? I asked the customer service on the phone and they said it was a person not AI.. :scratchchin: I really wouldn’t know .. anyway I just want to get on the aircraft and get to my destination on time! :yes:


The chat apps have people behind them, although tools like Jetstar's "Ask Jess" are automated systems (Jetstar also has useful live chat functionality). I often wonder if the chat staff work in the same location as the call centres. Some of the names the operators use are not what you would normally pick even in multicultural Australia whilst obviously not their real names. :)

I also find the chat facilities very useful. What does irk me is how hard it is for the customer service reps to deviate from the standard scripts and to talk to someone with operational flexibility even when it is obviously required. A few months ago I found prices quoted on the Jetstar website in breach of ACCC rules due to a bug in their system and it was impossible to make the chat representative and the call centre reps in the Philippines understand that it is actually an important issue that needs to escalated. Eventually had to take to social media to get a response...
I like artificial banana essence!
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:34 am

travelhound wrote:
getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:

It will be a record profit this year, although I suspect high oil prices will increase costs and consequentially soften demand.

I suspect we won't be seeing another record profit for quite a few years.


There's also a strong correlation between higher commodity prices and a stronger Australian economy. Domestic prices are trending upwards and VA won't be adding any capacity as they cover more flights to NZ. Also the lack of international airlines adding capacity to Australia might see QF International yields improve as well. I would assume there's still plenty of upside.


Agreed, but........there is always going to be a lag in the flow on effects of higher commodity prices into the economy.

From the latest BITRE figures, growth in the June month for domestic flights hovered around the 0.5% mark. In comparison the domestic market is currently tracking around the 2.5%, suggesting a rather dramatic softening of the market.

If we consider new investments in the resource sector really started to gain momentum at the beginning of this year (people on the ground actually building stuff), flat growth would suggest other parts of the economy (manufacturing) could be experiencing negative growth.

With VA transferring aircraft from the domestic to trans-Tasman market, we could even be seeing a decline in aircraft capacity.


I would be looking at the domestic ticket prices, not capacity growth. In fact, any major increase in capacity would be a negative.
I'm that bad type.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2552
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:03 am

getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:
getluv wrote:

There's also a strong correlation between higher commodity prices and a stronger Australian economy. Domestic prices are trending upwards and VA won't be adding any capacity as they cover more flights to NZ. Also the lack of international airlines adding capacity to Australia might see QF International yields improve as well. I would assume there's still plenty of upside.


Agreed, but........there is always going to be a lag in the flow on effects of higher commodity prices into the economy.

From the latest BITRE figures, growth in the June month for domestic flights hovered around the 0.5% mark. In comparison the domestic market is currently tracking around the 2.5%, suggesting a rather dramatic softening of the market.

If we consider new investments in the resource sector really started to gain momentum at the beginning of this year (people on the ground actually building stuff), flat growth would suggest other parts of the economy (manufacturing) could be experiencing negative growth.

With VA transferring aircraft from the domestic to trans-Tasman market, we could even be seeing a decline in aircraft capacity.


I would be looking at the domestic ticket prices, not capacity growth. In fact, any major increase in capacity would be a negative.

I don't think either airline is particularly keen on capacity increases at the moment. They have had a very healthy period of domestic demand made all the more profitable because capacity has been virtually flat.

Fuel prices are moving up and the economy may be peaking particularly with business unsure on the political cycle and the effect of the drought. All of this will mean both airlines are preparing for a different environment with price rises necessary but with demand flattening or declining.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:13 am

tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:
travelhound wrote:

Agreed, but........there is always going to be a lag in the flow on effects of higher commodity prices into the economy.

From the latest BITRE figures, growth in the June month for domestic flights hovered around the 0.5% mark. In comparison the domestic market is currently tracking around the 2.5%, suggesting a rather dramatic softening of the market.

If we consider new investments in the resource sector really started to gain momentum at the beginning of this year (people on the ground actually building stuff), flat growth would suggest other parts of the economy (manufacturing) could be experiencing negative growth.

With VA transferring aircraft from the domestic to trans-Tasman market, we could even be seeing a decline in aircraft capacity.


I would be looking at the domestic ticket prices, not capacity growth. In fact, any major increase in capacity would be a negative.

I don't think either airline is particularly keen on capacity increases at the moment. They have had a very healthy period of domestic demand made all the more profitable because capacity has been virtually flat.

Fuel prices are moving up and the economy may be peaking particularly with business unsure on the political cycle and the effect of the drought. All of this will mean both airlines are preparing for a different environment with price rises necessary but with demand flattening or declining.


Demand is flat but the airlines are still trimming capacity whilst airfares are climbing higher as well as load factor. So technically revenue will continue to rise.
I'm that bad type.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2552
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:25 am

getluv wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:

I would be looking at the domestic ticket prices, not capacity growth. In fact, any major increase in capacity would be a negative.

I don't think either airline is particularly keen on capacity increases at the moment. They have had a very healthy period of domestic demand made all the more profitable because capacity has been virtually flat.

Fuel prices are moving up and the economy may be peaking particularly with business unsure on the political cycle and the effect of the drought. All of this will mean both airlines are preparing for a different environment with price rises necessary but with demand flattening or declining.


Demand is flat but the airlines are still trimming capacity whilst airfares are climbing higher as well as load factor. So technically revenue will continue to rise.

...but profit may not. Fuel is rising faster than revenue and as hedges run out these costs will hit the bottom line. This is further exacerbated as fuel is priced in USD and the AUD has fallen 7% this year. Most of QF's and nearly all of VA's revenues are denominated in AUD.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:34 am

tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I don't think either airline is particularly keen on capacity increases at the moment. They have had a very healthy period of domestic demand made all the more profitable because capacity has been virtually flat.

Fuel prices are moving up and the economy may be peaking particularly with business unsure on the political cycle and the effect of the drought. All of this will mean both airlines are preparing for a different environment with price rises necessary but with demand flattening or declining.


Demand is flat but the airlines are still trimming capacity whilst airfares are climbing higher as well as load factor. So technically revenue will continue to rise.

...but profit may not. Fuel is rising faster than revenue and as hedges run out these costs will hit the bottom line. This is further exacerbated as fuel is priced in USD and the AUD has fallen 7% this year. Most of QF's and nearly all of VA's revenues are denominated in AUD.


Well currently QF's revenue is rising faster than their costs. It's a company mandate that they cut costs every year. As the 747s leave their fleet and their A380s are paid off they will be insulated. QF usually passes fuel the extra fuel costs onto their customers anyway.
I'm that bad type.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2552
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:42 am

getluv wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:

Demand is flat but the airlines are still trimming capacity whilst airfares are climbing higher as well as load factor. So technically revenue will continue to rise.

...but profit may not. Fuel is rising faster than revenue and as hedges run out these costs will hit the bottom line. This is further exacerbated as fuel is priced in USD and the AUD has fallen 7% this year. Most of QF's and nearly all of VA's revenues are denominated in AUD.


Well currently QF's revenue is rising faster than their costs. It's a company mandate that they cut costs every year. As the 747s leave their fleet and their A380s are paid off they will be insulated. QF usually passes fuel the extra fuel costs onto their customers anyway.

Unfortunately airlines are never fully insulated against fuel costs. It is typically their biggest expense and largely out of their control. They can hedge but it only delays price rises (and minimises upside when fuel falls).

You are right that QF (and VA) can attempt to pass costs onto customers via fuel levies but elasticity of demand says that this will naturally dampen demand.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
a19901213
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:38 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:47 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
If it was to be Japan it won’t be HND. No slots available.

Actually, additional HND slots will be coming online - 39,000 international slots p/a, to be precise.

This slot expansion will take place in time for the 2020 Olympic Games, so MEL - HND by 2020?

See: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ows-401552.

Cheers,

C.


Slots allocation isn't that simple in HND.

One carrier from each side can only use late night-early morning period slots to operate the routes between Australia-HND under bilateral agreement .
In fact, there's still slots available within the late night-early morning bracket right now but you can't just fly in there whenever you want to.

JP government wants HND's international operation to focus mainly on primary business routes and let NRT taking care of the rest. Hence third runaway plan in NRT.

39,000 slots really aren't that many given how many countries around the world are scrambling for more slots in HND. (Just look at how intensive US carriers&goverment get when they try to sort out slots allocation in HND)

If anything, JAL would be the one getting additional pair of slots in HND and shift NRT-SYD to HND-SYD.


MEL-HND isn't entirely impossible but I don't see how this route would get prioritized in front of the long queue. (And again don't forget JL and QF already fly to Tokyo from Melbourne)
 
getluv
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:12 am

tullamarine wrote:
getluv wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
...but profit may not. Fuel is rising faster than revenue and as hedges run out these costs will hit the bottom line. This is further exacerbated as fuel is priced in USD and the AUD has fallen 7% this year. Most of QF's and nearly all of VA's revenues are denominated in AUD.


Well currently QF's revenue is rising faster than their costs. It's a company mandate that they cut costs every year. As the 747s leave their fleet and their A380s are paid off they will be insulated. QF usually passes fuel the extra fuel costs onto their customers anyway.

Unfortunately airlines are never fully insulated against fuel costs. It is typically their biggest expense and largely out of their control. They can hedge but it only delays price rises (and minimises upside when fuel falls).

You are right that QF (and VA) can attempt to pass costs onto customers via fuel levies but elasticity of demand says that this will naturally dampen demand.


Well you may want to consider that QF made a record profit when fuel prices were at its peak in 2008. Again there's a strong correlation between commodity prices and the Australian economy. House prices are softening but share prices are high and Australia's unemployment rate is at 6 year lows.
I'm that bad type.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4381
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:06 am

a19901213 wrote:
JP government wants HND's international operation to focus mainly on primary business routes and let NRT taking care of the rest. Hence third runaway plan in NRT. MEL-HND isn't entirely impossible but I don't see how this route would get prioritized ...

There will be 53 more daily international round-trip flights ex-HND - more than enough to give MEL a very strong chance.

MEL is arguably a business destination. It's definitely more of a business destination than AKL is, which gets HND flights.

Cheers,

C.
 
a19901213
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:38 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:33 am

planemanofnz wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
JP government wants HND's international operation to focus mainly on primary business routes and let NRT taking care of the rest. Hence third runaway plan in NRT. MEL-HND isn't entirely impossible but I don't see how this route would get prioritized in front of the long queue. (And again don't forget JL and QF already fly to Tokyo from Melbourne)

There will be 53 more daily international round-trip flights ex-HND - more than enough to give MEL a very strong chance.

MEL is arguably a business destination. It's definitely more of a business destination than AKL is, which gets HND flights.

Cheers,

C.


You can argue 53 and MEL are huge and business destination but that doesn't make my points invalid. (BTW I knew it was 53 round trip flights)

MEL has relatively small Japanese community and related business compare to Sydney that's why no carrier was flying the route until few years ago. Plus there are already two carriers flying to TOKYO from MEL.

And again slots are allocated by Japanese government----if anyone would get additional slots it would be JAL not NH. And no I don't believe they're going to use it on MEL.

Finally AKL is totally irreverent to what we're talking here, NEW ZEALAND and AUSTRALIA are two different countries.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:17 am

a19901213 wrote:
MEL has relatively small Japanese community and related business ...

Actually, quite a few Japanese companies have their regional HQ in Melbourne, including Asahi, Mazda, Mitsubishi, NEC, Nintendo and Toyota, while Melbourne companies like BHP also do significant business with Japan. The corporate traffic is there, and this traffic would no doubt prefer HND to NRT.

a19901213 wrote:
... slots are allocated by Japanese government----if anyone would get additional slots it would be JAL not NH.

The allocation of the slots, by both country and airline, will be key. I can see Australia getting at least 1 of 53 daily rotation slots, given the size of the economic relationship; Japan is Australia's second biggest trading partner, and according to some sources, Australia is Japan's fifth biggest trading partner.

Do you have a source to say JL will get the new HND slots over NH? I thought that JL was still looked upon unfavorably by the government, given its bankruptcy, and that that had affected its HND slot allocation to date. Irregardless of airline, IMO, MEL - HND will be considered as a key option:

- For NH, it would further strengthen their premium positioning in Australia against JL, aligning with SYD - HND.
- For JL, it would provide them with a monopoly, instead of at SYD, where they will compete with NH from HND.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:03 pm

WA has called for tenders to operate a subsidized air service from the remote North West town of Derby to Perth. Direct flights between Perth and Derby have not operated since 2016, and the government allocated $1 million in the last budget towards a 12 month subsidised trial. I wonder if QF will bid for this? It's good to see more air services to regional Australia - here's hoping they're sustained!

See: https://thewest.com.au/news/broome-adve ... b88936355z.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:07 pm

Kathmandu is currently Sydney’s largest unserved market globally, with 93,000 people travelling to / from the Nepalese city and Sydney a year, with Nepal being Australia’s third-largest source of foreign students after China and India.

Sydney Airport has called for ASA negotiations to unlock markets like Nepal (there is currently no air services agreement between Australia and Nepal). Fiji, Hong Kong and Qatar were cited as other examples of markets needing work done.

I can't see Australia or Nepal having any issue with negotiating an ASA, so here's hoping it's done soon, and that RA can launch KTM - SYD with 332's soon. RA would be the carrier to do it - too low-yielding for QF and too long for JQ.

See: http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... ck-demand/.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:14 pm

With SV appointing a new GSA for Australia, it got me thinking - would SV ever operate to Australia, even for Hajj flights?

SV's VP Network/Sales said "We believe this is a great time to expand our presence in Australia ..." - a hidden meaning?

See: http://www.asiatraveltips.com/news18/22 ... ines.shtml.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:39 pm

Qantas announces record $1.6 billion profit before tax

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ar-profit/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:56 pm

Qantas to have a second site for pilot academy

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... demy-site/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:58 pm

Qantas announces major lounge investment program

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-program/
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a19901213
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:59 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
MEL has relatively small Japanese community and related business ...

Actually, quite a few Japanese companies have their regional HQ in Melbourne, including Asahi, Mazda, Mitsubishi, NEC, Nintendo and Toyota, while Melbourne companies like BHP also do significant business with Japan. The corporate traffic is there, and this traffic would no doubt prefer HND to NRT.



a19901213 wrote:
... slots are allocated by Japanese government----if anyone would get additional slots it would be JAL not NH.

The allocation of the slots, by both country and airline, will be key. I can see Australia getting at least 1 of 53 daily rotation slots, given the size of the economic relationship; Japan is Australia's second biggest trading partner, and according to some sources, Australia is Japan's fifth biggest trading partner.

Do you have a source to say JL will get the new HND slots over NH? I thought that JL was still looked upon unfavorably by the government, given its bankruptcy, and that that had affected its HND slot allocation to date. Irregardless of airline, IMO, MEL - HND will be considered as a key option:

- For NH, it would further strengthen their premium positioning in Australia against JL, aligning with SYD - HND.
- For JL, it would provide them with a monopoly, instead of at SYD, where they will compete with NH from HND.

Cheers,

C.


First of all I work in one of the top tier Japanese firm in Sydney... I know there are many Japanese firms setting their HQ in Melbourne. I work with them closely.

And yes I know Japan is Australia's second biggest trading partner, that's how I found my job.

But again mate you need to read properly what I wrote.

I never said Melbourne has no Japanese firms, all I'm saying is Sydney has relatively more Japanese business than Melbourne. (Melbourne is more manufacturing focus whereas Sydney has more financial&trading companies having their HQ here)

Other than BHP's partnership among top 2 trading companies (Sogo shosha)in Melbourne, overall Sydney has lots more business traffic to Japan than Melbourne. (And again manufacturing is dying + all top 3 Japanese banks' HQ are in Sydney)

You can ask people in JTB, which I did already, and they'll tell you I'm right. (BTW JTB has branches in Cairns, Gold coast and Sydney. Melbourne only has Sales office)

Also please don't neglect the fact that Sydney has almost twice as many Japanese than Melbourne.

https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/fi ... /japan.pdf
http://famzau.com/2016/07/27/japanese-population/

These are the reasons why no one was flying to Melbourne until few years ago.
Of course no doubt the demand in Melbourne has picked up significantly over past few years but so does Sydney.


As for bankruptcy issue that's not the case for JL anymore. Basically the slots allocation was distributed favorably toward NH based on a policy document issued by Japanese government. (AKA 8.10 paper)

https://www.haneda-airport-server.com/entry/810_paper

Sorry I'll just post a Japanese site here but basically it means it's effective until end of 2016 financial year (Mar 2017)
Afterward the allocation will have to be fair and equal. JAL has more negotiation power on the table now. (BTW this is also the reason why JAL was able to restart HND-JFK from Apr 2017)

And again you can argue that JL would want to do MEL-HND over SYD-HND but if you go ask people in JAL they would tell you otherwise. (My friend working in JAL in Tokyo said his management has to be crazy to prioritize MEL over SYD to fly into HND)

And BTW JAL's only Australia office is in Sydney as well.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:18 pm

As part of the A380 refurbs the upper deck will have 2 business class lounges.

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-airbus- ... ource=hero
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:22 pm

a19901213 wrote:
And again you can argue that JL would want to do MEL-HND over SYD-HND but if you go ask people in JAL they would tell you otherwise. (My friend working in JAL in Tokyo said his management has to be crazy to prioritize MEL over SYD to fly into HND)

And BTW JAL's only Australia office is in Sydney as well.


Much of the growth in Australia-Japan traffic over the past few years (a quick Google brought up the figure of almost 1000% in two decades according to http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-16/australia-and-japan-reverse-tourism-relationship/9332518) has been the tourist market. I would suggest that this market is likely to be split between Sydney and Melbourne, along with other states, but that it is also likely to be less sensitive to whether the airline flies into HND or NRT and that price will be a bigger factor.
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zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:38 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas announces major lounge investment program

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-program/


We will see if this does happen or not for AKL, it has been mentioned for the last couple of years but has never really happened.
 
a19901213
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:50 pm

allrite wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
And again you can argue that JL would want to do MEL-HND over SYD-HND but if you go ask people in JAL they would tell you otherwise. (My friend working in JAL in Tokyo said his management has to be crazy to prioritize MEL over SYD to fly into HND)

And BTW JAL's only Australia office is in Sydney as well.


Much of the growth in Australia-Japan traffic over the past few years (a quick Google brought up the figure of almost 1000% in two decades according to http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-16/australia-and-japan-reverse-tourism-relationship/9332518) has been the tourist market. I would suggest that this market is likely to be split between Sydney and Melbourne, along with other states, but that it is also likely to be less sensitive to whether the airline flies into HND or NRT and that price will be a bigger factor.


Yes you're absolutely correct.

I used to live in Japan for few years around 10 years ago. Both flight and airport were pretty much empty when I fly into Japan from Australia. (And look how crazy KIX is today)

This is why I'm guessing QF might downsize HND route and add another daily SYD-NRT once 744 retired.
Funnily QF just announced they're upgrading the lounge in NRT, perhaps this adds the possibility of additional flight into NRT.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:50 pm

Pertinent to earlier discussions, according to this tweet from Australian Business Traveller:

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says both Qantas and Jetstar would fly out of the new Western Sydney airport, although Sydney/Kingsford-Smith would be predominately Qantas and Western Sydney would be predominately Jetstar
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kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:57 pm

allrite wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
And again you can argue that JL would want to do MEL-HND over SYD-HND but if you go ask people in JAL they would tell you otherwise. (My friend working in JAL in Tokyo said his management has to be crazy to prioritize MEL over SYD to fly into HND)

And BTW JAL's only Australia office is in Sydney as well.


Much of the growth in Australia-Japan traffic over the past few years (a quick Google brought up the figure of almost 1000% in two decades according to http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-16/australia-and-japan-reverse-tourism-relationship/9332518) has been the tourist market. I would suggest that this market is likely to be split between Sydney and Melbourne, along with other states, but that it is also likely to be less sensitive to whether the airline flies into HND or NRT and that price will be a bigger factor.


I'm thinking that in this point in time, MEL-Japan should be given time to consolidate, in 2016 there was only x4 weekly JQ flights, now there is x2 daily services with QF and JL operating a daily flight each. Demand has picked up significantly, but there needs to be a period for the capacity to be absorbed by the market. It looks like both QF and JL are doing quite well in MEL, with JL even increasing capacity during peak periods. I think in the medium term, MEL should try to get a non-stop flight to KIX.

I think for MEL specifically, the market may be skewed more towards Australians travelling to Japan, with Japan being a, increasingly popular travel destination for young Victorians. But there is an increase of Japanese tourists visiting Victoria now, with JL launching MEL only making the growth stronger, JALPAK also offers packages to Melbourne in conjunction with JL (tour companies are still quite popular in Japan) which has also increased the awareness and attractiveness of Melbourne.

I agree, I think that if JL does get rewarded with the HND rights, it would be the SYD flight, it would allow JL to be more competitive against QF and NH. I don't think that there is a hurry for MEL to get HND flights, it will happen eventually as business between Melbourne and Japan increases.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:38 am

All in all a very uneventful results release. QF look to have changed their hype strategy around these, this time at least.
 
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allrite
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:06 am

qf2220 wrote:
All in all a very uneventful results release. QF look to have changed their hype strategy around these, this time at least.


What's the point today? The only thing they could say that could get them more media is if they announced that potatoes and whole raw onions would be featured on the Qantas menu.
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:17 am

Even if they had something exciting to announce, today isn't the day.
I'm that bad type.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:55 am

getluv wrote:
Even if they had something exciting to announce, today isn't the day.


That's the truth.

Reality simply is the only big news is aircraft orders or corporate activity , and Qantas has Capex planned thru 2020 with the Dreamliner orders.

And needs clarity on Sunrise/797s to make other decisions.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2018

Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:14 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Qf648 wrote:
brucetiki wrote:

I swear they had a 4 engined, single level aircraft in the mid-2000's. I recall seeing a relative off from ADL in 2006, and was pretty sure that it was an A340 - either that or I was seeing things at the time :D


Was singapore flying the 340 out of ADL. Was my first flight on a jet. QF used a 330 on Syd-adl-sin-adl-syd. Its is why QF will not do international out of Adelaide. The market is too small, and its easier to fly though MEL or SYD if you want to fly on QF metal.



SQ retired their A343’s by 2003, I think they did fly to ADL at some point? Certainly not 2006 though although there were by then A345’s in the fleet, those certainly didn’t go to ADL though.


99% sure that SQ have never routinely flown A343s or A345s to ADL. It was 772s for the whole of the 2000s, until replaced by the current A330.

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